Regime shifts between free-floating plants and phytoplankton: a review

Field studies evidence shifts between phytoplankton and free-floating plant regimes; yet, it is unclear what drives these shifts and if they are critical transitions (alternative stable states). In this review, we synthesized field and experimental data on free-floating plants (of varying size and phylogenies) and phytoplankton regimes, to assess the effects of these producers on the environment. Nutrient-rich environments promote free-floating plants dominance—regardless of life form—which causes dark and anoxic environments, and nutrient release from sediments. This reinforces free-floating plants dominance, but controls phytoplankton biomass by strong shading (despite high nutrients and low grazing). Phytoplankton dominance renders turbid and oxygen-rich (when producing) environments. We also searched for case studies of regime shifts for free-floating plants and phytoplankton dominance. Most studies showed that when free-floating plants dominance was interrupted, phytoplankton biomass (usually Cyanobacteria) rose steeply. Likewise, when phytoplankton-dominated, the development of dense mats of free-floating plants covers usually controlled phytoplankton. Field evidence that suggests critical transitions include abrupt regime transitions in time and space; yet, evidence including indoor controlled experiments and mathematical models is needed for conclusive evidence of alternative stable states to be drawn.     

Regime shifts in vegetation composition of Baltic Sea coastal lagoons

Vegetation communities, morphometric and water quality variables were sampled in 62 undisturbed coastal lagoons along a natural land-uplift gradient in the northern Baltic Sea. The lagoons had a morphological inlet threshold reflecting habitat isolation (i.e. the diminished connectedness of the lagoon to the sea) and located in different parts of the archipelago (corresponding to altering wave exposure). We used indirect multivariate methods to find changes in vegetation composition, and axes derived from the analyses were used in correlation and stepwise multiple regression analyses together with environmental variables. Habitat isolation proved to be the strongest predictor for vegetation composition. To identify significant change-points we used a method, which detects regime shifts by accounting for differences in chronological series and gives a regime shift index. Significant shifts in habitat isolation, average depth and total nitrogen were followed by shifts in species variables (i.e. dominant species, cover and species richness) and salinity, total phosphorus and turbidity. Of the species, especially Chara tomentosa showed a shift of high magnitude. Also a shift in wave exposure mirroring position of lagoons in the archipelago structured the species, but this division was seen only for less isolated lagoons. Our results suggest that lagoons are primarily structured by habitat isolation forming two structurally different regimes: one of less isolated lagoons dominated by a diverse array of vascular plants and marine algae of both outer and inner archipelago characters, and one with isolated lagoons dominated by high vegetation cover and dominance of Chara. In addition, vegetation seemed to stabilize water quality in the isolated regime by reducing turbidity and phosphorus, indicating a potential feed-back mechanism and a shift in structuring disturbances from abiotic to biotic factors with habitat isolation.     

Regime shifts in the breeding of an Atlantic puffin population

Timing of breeding is a key factor determining the reproductive success in bird populations and known to be affected by climate fluctuations. We investigated the long‐term (1978–2002) relationship between climate and hatching date within a population of Atlantic puffin Fratercula arctica at Røst in the Norwegian Sea. The timing of puffin breeding was found to be influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation winter index (NAO). We isolated two temporal regimes, one where NAO had a significant effect on hatching date (1978–1986 and 1995–2002) and one where these variables were independent (1987–1994). Hatching date could be modelled using, in addition to NAO, hatching date and food abundance in the preceding breeding season (possibly proxies of parental effort). The models remained significant for regime 1 but not for regime 2. NAO differed between the two regimes suggesting that the shifts were induced by climate change, possibly via its effect on the availability of prey in the preceding year. The novelty of our study is the identification of temporal regimes in the effects of climate within one population.     

Regime shifts in marine communities: a complex systems perspective on food web dynamics

Species composition and habitats are changing at unprecedented rates in the world''s oceans, potentially causing entire food webs to shift to structurally and functionally different regimes. Despite the severity of these regime shifts, elucidating the precise nature of their underlying processes has remained difficult. We address this challenge with a new analytic approach to detect and assess the relative strength of different driving processes in food webs. Our study draws on complexity theory, and integrates the network-centric exponential random graph modelling (ERGM) framework developed within the social sciences with community ecology. In contrast to previous research, this approach makes clear assumptions of direction of causality and accommodates a dynamic perspective on the emergence of food webs. We apply our approach to analysing food webs of the Baltic Sea before and after a previously reported regime shift. Our results show that the dominant food web processes have remained largely the same, although we detect changes in their magnitudes. The results indicate that the reported regime shift may not be a system-wide shift, but instead involve a limited number of species. Our study emphasizes the importance of community-wide analysis on marine regime shifts and introduces a novel approach to examine food webs.     

Regime shifts in marine ecosystems: detection, prediction and management

Regime shifts are abrupt changes between contrasting, persistent states of any complex system. The potential for their prediction in the ocean and possible management depends upon the characteristics of the regime shifts: their drivers (from anthropogenic to natural), scale (from the local to the basin) and potential for management action (from adaptation to mitigation). We present a conceptual framework that will enhance our ability to detect, predict and manage regime shifts in the ocean, illustrating our approach with three well-documented examples: the North Pacific, the North Sea and Caribbean coral reefs. We conclude that the ability to adapt to, or manage, regime shifts depends upon their uniqueness, our understanding of their causes and linkages among ecosystem components and our observational capabilities.     

Regime shifts: catastrophic responses of ecosystems to human impacts

Evidence of abrupt changes in ecosystem states, such as sudden eutrophication in lakes, has been increasingly reported in a variety of aquatic and terrestrial systems. Ecosystems may have more than one state with a self-stabilizing mechanism, so that a shift between states does not occur frequently and is not readily reversible. These big changes are termed regime shifts where often one state is preferred over another. Thus, regime shifts are problematic for ecosystem managers, and the need exists for studies that lead to the identification of thresholds of key variables that trigger regime shifts. Regime shifts are currently difficult to predict and in many cases may be caused by the human pursuit of efficiency in land and water productivity in the last few decades. Here I briefly introduce a theoretical approach to predict the shift between a clear-water state and a turbid state in lakes, the best-studied example of regime shifts. This paper also discusses alternative states in other natural systems besides ecosystems to draw more attention to the research currently being performed on regime shifts. Motomi Genkai-Kato is the recipient of the 10th Denzaburo Miyadi Award.     

社会-生态系统恢复力研究进展——基于CiteSpace的文献计量分析

社会-生态系统恢复力为深化人类与自然的复杂相互作用过程与机理研究提供了新的视角,并成为推动跨学科整合与全球可持续发展的重要工具。运用CiteSpace文献计量方法,以社会-生态系统恢复力研究文献为对象,通过对关键词、作者、研究机构与引证文献等要素的分析,得出了国外社会-生态系统恢复力研究的总体特征,并从概念内涵、评估量化、体制转换与适应性管理4个方面系统总结了该领域主要研究内容及其进展动态,结合我国研究现状对未来研究提出展望。研究发现:社会-生态系统恢复力相关文章数量呈快速上升趋势,主要集中在生态环境与地理学领域;斯德哥尔摩大学的Folke是该领域的代表性学者;社会-生态系统恢复力研究呈现多元分散特征,理论分析、实证方法与实践层面的适应性管理是该领域主要的研究热点;尺度问题、社会-生态系统整合、恢复力量化评估以及体制转换与恢复力变化关系是该领域未来研究需要进一步强化与深化的内容。     

Regime shifts in shallow lakes: the importance of seasonal fish migration

Shallow eutrophic lakes commonly exist in two alternative stable states: a clear-water state and a turbid water state. A number of mechanisms, including both abiotic and biotic processes, buffer the respective states against changes, whereas other mechanisms likely drive transitions between states. Our earlier research shows that a large proportion of zooplanktivorous fish populations in shallow lakes undertake seasonal migrations where they leave the lake during winter and migrate back to the lake in spring. Based on our past research, we propose a number of scenarios of how feedback processes between the individual and ecosystem levels may affect stability of alternative stable states in shallow lakes when mediated by fish migration. Migration effects on shallow lakes result from processes at different scales, from the individual to the ecosystem. Our earlier research has shown that ecosystem properties, including piscivore abundance and zooplankton productivity, affect the individual state of zooplanktivorous fish, such as growth rate or condition. Individual state, in turn, affects the relative proportion and timing of migrating zooplanktivorous fish. This change, in turn, may stabilize states or cause runaway processes that eventually lead to state shifts. Consequently, such knowledge of processes coupled to seasonal migration of planktivorous fish should increase our understanding of shallow lake dynamics.     

Regime shifts and weakened environmental gradients in open oak and pine ecosystems

Fire suppression allows tree species that are intolerant of fire stress to increase their distribution, potentially resulting in disruption of historical species-environmental relationships. To measure changes between historical General Land Office surveys (1815 to 1850) and current USDA Forest Inventory and Assessment surveys (2004 to 2008), we compared composition, distribution, and site factors of 21 tree species or species groups in the Missouri Ozarks. We used 24 environmental variables and random forests as a classification method to model distributions. Eastern redcedar, elms, maples, and other fire-sensitive species have increased in dominance in oak forests, with concurrent reductions by oak species; specific changes varied by ecological subsection. Ordinations displayed loss of separation between formerly distinctive oak and fire-sensitive tree species groups. Distribution maps showed decreased presence of disturbance-dependent oak and pine species and increased presence of fire-sensitive species that generally expanded from subsections protected from fire along rivers to upland areas, except for eastern redcedar, which expanded into these subsections. Large scale differences in spatial gradients between past and present communities paralleled reduced influence of local topographic gradients in the varied relief of the Missouri Ozarks, as fire-sensitive species have moved to higher, drier, and sunnier sites away from riverine corridors. Due to changes in land use, landscapes in the Missouri Ozarks, eastern United States, and world-wide are changing from open oak and pine-dominated ecosystems to novel oak-mixed species forests, although at fine scales, forests are becoming more diverse in tree species today. Fire suppression weakened the influence by environmental gradients over species dominance, allowing succession from disturbance-dependent oaks to an alternative state of fire-sensitive species. Current and future research and conservation that rely on historical relationships and ecological principles based on disturbance across the landscape will need to incorporate modern interactions among species for resources into management plans and projections.     

Regime shifts and heterogeneous trends in malaria time series from Western Kenya Highlands

Large malaria epidemics in the East African highlands during the mid and late 1990s kindled a stream of research on the role that global warming might have on malaria transmission. Most of the inferences using temporal information have been derived from a malaria incidence time series from Kericho. Here, we report a detailed analysis of 5 monthly time series, between 15 and 41 years long, from West Kenya encompassing an altitudinal gradient along Lake Victoria basin. We found decreasing, but heterogeneous, malaria trends since the late 1980s at low altitudes (<1600 m), and the early 2000s at high altitudes (>1600 m). Regime shifts were present in 3 of the series and were synchronous in the 2 time series from high altitudes. At low altitude, regime shifts were associated with a shift from increasing to decreasing malaria transmission, as well as a decrease in variability. At higher altitudes, regime shifts reflected an increase in malaria transmission variability. The heterogeneity in malaria trends probably reflects the multitude of factors that can drive malaria transmission and highlights the need for both spatially and temporally fine-grained data to make sound inferences about the impacts of climate change and control/elimination interventions on malaria transmission.     

Mating system shifts a species’ range

Understanding the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms that shape a species’ range is an important goal in evolutionary biology. Evidence indicates that mating system is an effective predictor of the global range of native species or naturalized alien plants, but the mechanisms underlying this predictability are not elaborated. Here, we develop a theoretical model to account for the ranges of plants under different mating systems based on migration‐selection processes (an idea proposed by Haldane). The model includes alternation of gametophyte and sporophyte generations in one life cycle and the dispersal of haploid pollen and diploid seeds as vectors for gene flow. We show that the interaction between selfing rates and gametophytic selection determines the role of mating system in shaping a species’ range. Selfing restricts the species’ range under gametophytic selection in nonrandom mating systems, but expands the species’ range under the absence of gametophytic selection in any mating system. Gametophytic selection slightly restricts the species’ range in random mating. Both logarithmic and logistic models of population demography yield similar conclusions in the case of fixed or evolving genetic variance. The theory also helps to explain a broader relationship between mating system and range size following biological invasion or plant naturalization.     

面向可持续发展目标的社会-生态系统研究进展——基于文献计量分析

作为探索可持续发展实现路径的关键工具,社会-生态系统理论研究框架的重要性日益凸显,但截至目前,对如何运用社会-生态系统理论研究框架解读各项可持续发展目标（SDGs）还缺乏比较清晰的认识。概述了社会-生态系统的主要研究框架,基于文献计量软件和可视化手段系统分析了面向SDGs的社会-生态系统研究的现状和特点。结果表明："SDG1-无贫困"、"SDG2-零饥饿"、"SDG8-体面工作和经济增长"、"SDG13-气候行动"和"SDG14-水下生物"是目前研究中关注的热点,涉及了多尺度的农林、淡水、海洋、城乡等典型系统,呈现出跨学科、数据多元化和方法集成化的显著特征;而有关"SDG4-优质教育"、"SDG5-性别平等"、"SDG7-经济适用的清洁能源"和"SDG10-减少不平等"等目标的研究相对较少;SDGs研究热点与国家发展阶段密切相关,基于社会-生态系统视角的多项目标关联关系的研究较少,该领域研究主要为可持续发展目标提供了"分析框架、达标评估、趋势预测和管理决策"的支撑服务作用。未来亟需加强以下四个方面的研究：（1）基于社会-生态系统视角的SDGs关联关系研究;（2）构建因地制宜的社会-生态系统研究框架;（3） SDGs导向的社会-生态系统动态反馈机制研究;（4）学科融合和数据平台建设。为探索适宜中国SGDs的实现路径提供科学参考。     

我国省域基础设施投入对社会-生态系统脆弱性的影响

基础设施投入对社会经济或生态系统的影响已被广泛讨论,但对社会-生态系统(SES)的作用如何仍不得而知。本研究梳理了基础设施投入对SES脆弱性的影响机理,并在核算省域人均基础设施资本存量及综合评估SES脆弱性的基础上,采用空间自相关与空间计量模型实证分析了我国省域基础设施投入对SES脆弱性的作用。结果表明: 2004—2017年,我国省域人均基础设施投入水平显著提高,且呈北高南低、东西高中间低的空间分布格局;省域SES脆弱性也在不断改善,却表现出由东向西逐步恶化的分布特点;我国省域人均基础设施投入与SES脆弱性具有空间正相关性,存在聚集性分布特征;两者呈倒U型曲线关系,即早期适量基础设施投入会降低SES脆弱性,而过度投入则会导致SES脆弱性逐步增加。本研究揭示了基础设施投入对SES脆弱性的影响机理与动态特点,可为宏观层面统筹协调基础设施建设与SES脆弱性治理提供理论与决策支持。     

Macroevolutionary data suggest a role for reinforcement in pollination system shifts

Reproductive isolation can evolve either as a by-product of divergent selection or through reinforcement. We used the Cape flora of South Africa, known for its high level of pollination specialization, as a model system to test the potential role of shifts in pollination system in the speciation process. Comparative analysis of 41 sister-species pairs (representing Geraniaceae, Iridaceae, and Orchidaceae) for which complete pollinator, edaphic, and distribution data are available showed that for sister species with overlapping distribution ranges, pollination system shifts are significantly associated with edaphic shifts. In contrast, there is no significant association between pollination system shifts and edaphic shifts for allopatric sister species. These results are interpreted as evidence for reinforcement.     

Maintaining cooperation in social-ecological systems:

Natural resources are vulnerable to over-exploitation in the absence of effective management. However, norms, enforced by social ostracism, can promote cooperation and increase stock biomass in common-pool resource systems. Unfortunately, the long-term sustainable use of a resource is not assured even if cooperation, maintained by ostracism and aimed at optimizing resource use, exists. Here, using the example of fisheries, we show that for a cooperative to be maintained by ostracism over time, it often must act inefficiently, choosing a ‘second-best’ strategy where the resource is over-harvested to some degree. Those cooperatives that aim for maximum sustainable profit, the “first-best” harvest strategy, are more vulnerable to invasion by independent harvesters, leading to larger declines in the fish population. In contrast, second-best strategies emphasize the resistance to invasion by independent harvesters over maximizing yield or profit. Ultimately, this leads to greater long-run payoffs to the resource users as well as higher resource stock levels. This highlights the value of pragmatism in the design of cooperative institutions for managing natural resources.     

干旱区生态系统稳态转换及其预警信号——基于景观格局特征的识别方法

在日益加剧的气候变化和土地开垦、放牧等人类活动干扰下,具有多稳态特征的干旱区生态系统可能会经历从相对健康状态到退化状态的稳态转换,导致生态系统的功能下降。早期预警信号的识别是生态系统稳态转换研究的热点,也是管理实践中防止生态系统退化的关键环节。以往预警信号研究聚焦于通用信号如自相关性、方差等统计学指标,然而这些指标对于具有特定机制的干旱区生态系统可能并不适用。基于干旱区景观格局特征所发展起来的空间指标为生态系统稳态转换提供了独特的空间视角,对于理解干旱区生态系统退化过程和机理具有科学意义和实践价值。介绍了干旱区生态系统稳态转换现象及其转换机制;聚焦景观生态学的指标和方法,从空间视角总结基于干旱区景观格局特征的关键预警指标(植被覆盖度、植被斑块形态、植被斑块大小频率分布和水文连通性等),重点剖析这些关键指标的概念、量化方法、识别特征及其实践应用;最后针对指标的优势和局限性对未来的研究方向进行展望,包括发掘潜在景观指标,加强干旱区生态系统变化的多种驱动要素的相互作用机制研究,开展多时空尺度的实证研究,构建生态系统稳态转换预警信号的整体分析框架,以及加强指标阈值的量化研究等方面。     

Regime, phase and paradigm shifts: making community ecology the basic science for fisheries

Modern fishery science, which began in 1957 with Beverton and Holt, is ca. 50 years old. At its inception, fishery science was limited by a nineteenth century mechanistic worldview and by computational technology; thus, the relatively simple equations of population ecology became the fundamental ecological science underlying fisheries. The time has come for this to change and for community ecology to become the fundamental ecological science underlying fisheries. This point will be illustrated with two examples. First, when viewed from a community perspective, excess production must be considered in the context of biomass left for predators. We argue that this is a better measure of the effects of fisheries than spawning biomass per recruit. Second, we shall analyse a simple, but still multi-species, model for fishery management that considers the alternatives of harvest regulations, inshore marine protected areas and offshore marine protected areas. Population or community perspectives lead to very different predictions about the efficacy of reserves.     

Qualitative study of a dynamical system for metrazol-induced paroxysmal depolarization shifts

The convulsant pentylenetetrazol (PTZ) was used to trigger spike bursts and paroxysmal discharges inAplysia neurons. Voltage clamp experiments showed that PTZ induced a slow voltage-dependent potassium current and a persistent inward current. These currents are incorporated into a membrane model together with modified spike-generating Hodgkin-Huxley equations. From these data a metaphoric model is constructed and represented by a slow-fast dynamical system defined inR ⁴. With some values of the main physiological parameters, the system might have limit cycles for the fast dynamic. A qualitative study of the system shows that it satisfactorily reproduces the various observed patterns produced by PTZ.     

Analysis and management of multiple ecosystem services within a social-ecological context

The assessment of ecosystem services (ESS) requires approaches that are capable to deal with the complexity of social-ecological systems (SES). A new viewpoint is proposed, in which the social-ecological perspective of Ostrom’s SES framework is used to describe the flow of ESS, through the identification of the social and ecological elements involved. Two types of ESS flow emerge from this analysis, depending on the way in which the elements of ESS supply (resource system and resource units) and demand (actors) interact: (i) a “direct flow type” in which the resource units deliver the ESS through some specific ecological functions (e.g. wetlands providing carbon sequestration), and (ii) a “mediated flow type” in which the resource units become themselves the ESS when “used” by means of human activities (e.g. fish harvested through fishing activities). The identification of activities is crucial to understand the interactions between ESS, because of the feedbacks they produce on the ecosystem functioning and thus on the provision of the same or other ESS. In addition, these feedbacks can depend on temporal aspects of ESS provision. On these regards, a hypothesis is proposed according to which a time lag can exist between the ESS supply-side and flow in human-modified SES. Altogether, this social-ecological analysis of ESS can contribute to focus the management strategies on the control of impacting activities and on the maintenance of those processes which underpin ESS’ provision, thus contributing to the implementation of an ecosystem-based management of SES. These aspects are discussed in the light of the Venice lagoon example.