Phylogeographic Reconstruction of African Yellow Fever Virus Isolates Indicates Recent Simultaneous Dispersal into East and West Africa

Yellow fever virus (YFV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus that is a major public health problem in tropical areas of Africa and South America. There have been detailed studies on YFV ecology in West Africa and South America, but current understanding of YFV circulation on the African continent is incomplete. This inadequacy is especially notable for East and Central Africa, for which the unpredictability of human outbreaks is compounded by limitations in both historical and present surveillance efforts. Sparse availability of nucleotide sequence data makes it difficult to investigate the dispersal of YFV in these regions of the continent. To remedy this, we constructed Bayesian phylogenetic and geographic analyses utilizing 49 partial genomic sequences to infer the structure of YFV divergence across the known range of the virus on the African continent. Relaxed clock analysis demonstrated evidence for simultaneous divergence of YFV into east and west lineages, a finding that differs from previous hypotheses of YFV dispersal from reservoirs located on edges of the endemic range. Using discrete and continuous geographic diffusion models, we provide detailed structure of YFV lineage diversity. Significant transition links between extant East and West African lineages are presented, implying connection between areas of known sylvatic cycling. The results of demographic modeling reinforce the existence of a stably maintained population of YFV with spillover events into human populations occurring periodically. Geographically distinct foci of circulation are reconstructed, which have significant implications for studies of YFV ecology and emergence of human disease. We propose further incorporation of Bayesian phylogeography into formal GIS analyses to augment studies of arboviral disease.     

The HIV-1 Subtype C Epidemic in South America Is Linked to the United Kingdom

Background

The global spread of HIV-1 has been accompanied by the emergence of genetically distinct viral strains. Over the past two decades subtype C viruses, which predominate in Southern and Eastern Africa, have spread rapidly throughout parts of South America. Phylogenetic studies indicate that subtype C viruses were introduced to South America through a single founder event that occurred in Southern Brazil. However, the external route via which subtype C viruses spread to the South American continent has remained unclear.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used automated genotyping to screen 8,309 HIV-1 subtype C pol gene sequences sampled within the UK for isolates genetically linked to the subtype C epidemic in South America. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches were used to explore the phylogenetic relationships between 54 sequences identified in this screen, and a set of globally sampled subtype C reference sequences. Phylogenetic trees disclosed a robustly supported relationship between sequences from Brazil, the UK and East Africa. A monophyletic cluster comprised exclusively of sequences from the UK and Brazil was identified and dated to approximately the early 1980s using a Bayesian coalescent-based method. A sub-cluster of 27 sequences isolated from homosexual men of UK origin was also identified and dated to the early 1990s.

Conclusions

Phylogenetic, demographic and temporal data support the conclusion that the UK was a crucial staging post in the spread of subtype C from East Africa to South America. This unexpected finding demonstrates the role of diffuse international networks in the global spread of HIV-1 infection, and the utility of globally sampled viral sequence data in revealing these networks. Additionally, we show that subtype C viruses are spreading within the UK amongst men who have sex with men.     

Evaluation of Whatman FTA cards for the preservation of yellow fever virus RNA for use in molecular diagnostics

Yellow fever virus (YFV) is a flavivirus that frequently causes outbreaks of hemorrhagic fever in Africa and South America and is considered a reemerging public health threat. Accurate diagnosis of yellow fever (YF) disease is critical as one confirmed case constitutes an outbreak and may trigger a mass vaccination campaign. Highly sensitive and specific molecular diagnostics have been developed; however, these assays require maintenance of cold-chain during transport of specimens to prevent the degradation of viral RNA prior to testing. Such cold-chain requirements are difficult to meet in some regions. In this study, we investigated Whatman FTA cards as an alternative stabilization method of YFV RNA for use in molecular diagnosis. Using contrived specimens, linear regression analysis showed that RNA detection from a single 6mm FTA card punch was significantly less sensitive than traditional RNA extraction; however, pooling RNA extracted from two FTA punches significantly lowered the limit of detection to be equal to that of the traditional RNA extraction gold standard. In experiments addressing the ability of FTA card methodology to stabilize YFV RNA at variable temperature, RNA could be detected for more than two weeks following storage at 25°C. Even more promising, YFV RNA was detectable on cards held at 37°C from two days to over two weeks depending on viral input. FTA cards were also shown to stabilize YFV RNA at high humidity if cards were desiccated prior to inoculation. These results support that FTA cards could be cost effective and easy to use in molecular diagnosis of YF, preserving viral RNA to allow for positive diagnoses in situations where maintaining cold-chain is not feasible.     

Rapid Molecular Assays for the Detection of Yellow Fever Virus in Low-Resource Settings

Background

Yellow fever (YF) is an acute viral hemorrhagic disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. The causative agent, the yellow fever virus (YFV), is found in tropical and subtropical areas of South America and Africa. Although a vaccine is available since the 1930s, YF still causes thousands of deaths and several outbreaks have recently occurred in Africa. Therefore, rapid and reliable diagnostic methods easy to perform in low-resources settings could have a major impact on early detection of outbreaks and implementation of appropriate response strategies such as vaccination and/or vector control.

Methodology

The aim of this study was to develop a YFV nucleic acid detection method applicable in outbreak investigations and surveillance studies in low-resource and field settings. The method should be simple, robust, rapid and reliable. Therefore, we adopted an isothermal approach and developed a recombinase polymerase amplification (RPA) assay which can be performed with a small portable instrument and easy-to-use lyophilized reagents. The assay was developed in three different formats (real-time with or without microfluidic semi-automated system and lateral-flow assay) to evaluate their application for different purposes. Analytical specificity and sensitivity were evaluated with a wide panel of viruses and serial dilutions of YFV RNA. Mosquito pools and spiked human plasma samples were also tested for assay validation. Finally, real-time RPA in portable format was tested under field conditions in Senegal.

Conclusion/Significance

The assay was able to detect 20 different YFV strains and demonstrated no cross-reactions with closely related viruses. The RPA assay proved to be a robust, portable method with a low detection limit (<21 genome equivalent copies per reaction) and rapid processing time (<20 min). Results from real-time RPA field testing were comparable to results obtained in the laboratory, thus confirming our method is suitable for YFV detection in low-resource settings.     

DNA bar-coding reveals source and patterns of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Thaumastocoris peregrinus</Emphasis> invasions in South Africa and South America

Thaumastocoris peregrinus is a recently introduced invertebrate pest of non-native Eucalyptus plantations in the Southern Hemisphere. It was first reported from South Africa in 2003 and in Argentina in 2005. Since then, populations have grown explosively and it has attained an almost ubiquitous distribution over several regions in South Africa on 26 Eucalyptus species. Here we address three key questions regarding this invasion, namely whether only one species has been introduced, whether there were single or multiple introductions into South Africa and South America and what the source of the introduction might have been. To answer these questions, bar-coding using mitochondrial DNA (COI) sequence diversity was used to characterise the populations of this insect from Australia, Argentina, Brazil, South Africa and Uruguay. Analyses revealed three cryptic species in Australia, of which only T. peregrinus is represented in South Africa and South America. Thaumastocoris peregrinus populations contained eight haplotypes, with a pairwise nucleotide distance of 0.2–0.9% from seventeen locations in Australia. Three of these haplotypes are shared with populations in South America and South Africa, but the latter regions do not share haplotypes. These data, together with the current distribution of the haplotypes and the known direction of original spread in these regions, suggest that at least three distinct introductions of the insect occurred in South Africa and South America before 2005. The two most common haplotypes in Sydney, one of which was also found in Brisbane, are shared with the non-native regions. Sydney populations of T. peregrinus, which have regularly reached outbreak levels in recent years, might thus have served as source of these three distinct introductions into other regions of the Southern Hemisphere.     

Multiple introductions and gene flow in subtropical South American populations of the fireweed,Senecio madagascariensis(Asteraceae)

Non-indigenous plants exhibit different attributes that make them aggressive competitors with indigenous plants and serious threats to biodiversity.Senecio madagascariensis (fireweed, Asteraceae), a native from southern Africa, is a strong competitor in agricultural activities and has toxic alkaloids that may result in high cattle mortality. In Brazil, this weed was collected for the first time in 1995 and has since spread quickly throughout the Pampas region. To better understand the invasion of the fireweed in South America, we used a genetic characterization with internal transcribed spacer (ITS) and microsatellite markers. Based on the ITS data, the southern Brazil populations of S. madagascariensis shared genetic homology with samples taken from the Hawaiian Islands and South Africa. Microsatellite analysis showed the genetic diversity split in two clusters, perhaps intimating the independent introduction of each species into South America. Although fireweed was introduced recently in southern Brazil, the considerable levels of genetic diversity, gene flow, and inbreeding may indicate success in the species establishment in this environment.     

Multiple intercontinental dispersals shaped the distribution area of Hordeum (Poaceae)

The grass genus Hordeum (Poaceae, Triticeae), comprising 31 species distributed in temperate and dry regions of the world, was analysed to determine the relative contributions of vicariance and long-distance dispersal to the extant distribution pattern of the genus. Sequences from three nuclear regions (DMC1, EF-G and ITS) were combined and analysed phylogenetically for all diploid (20 species) and two tetraploid Hordeum species and the outgroup Psathyrostachys. Ages of clades within Hordeum were estimated using a penalized likelihood analysis of sequence divergence. The sequence data resulted in an almost fully resolved phylogenetic tree that allowed the reconstruction of intrageneric migration routes. Hordeum evolved c. 12 million years ago in South-west Asia and spread into Europe and Central Asia. The colonization of the New World and South Africa involved at least six intercontinental exchanges during the last 4 million years (twice Eurasia-North America, North America-South America, twice South America-North America and Europe-South Africa). Repeated long-distance dispersal between the northern and southern hemisphere were important colonization mechanisms in Hordeum.     

An ecological niche model to predict the geographic distribution of Haemagogus janthinomys,Dyar, 1921 a yellow fever and Mayaro virus vector,in South America

Yellow fever virus (YFV) has a long history of impacting human health in South America. Mayaro virus (MAYV) is an emerging arbovirus of public health concern in the Neotropics and its full impact is yet unknown. Both YFV and MAYV are primarily maintained via a sylvatic transmission cycle but can be opportunistically transmitted to humans by the bites of infected forest dwelling Haemagogus janthinomys Dyar, 1921. To better understand the potential risk of YFV and MAYV transmission to humans, a more detailed understanding of this vector species’ distribution is critical. This study compiled a comprehensive database of 177 unique Hg. janthinomys collection sites retrieved from the published literature, digitized museum specimens and publicly accessible mosquito surveillance data. Covariate analysis was performed to optimize a selection of environmental (topographic and bioclimatic) variables associated with predicting habitat suitability, and species distributions modelled across South America using a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approach. Our results indicate that suitable habitat for Hg. janthinomys can be found across forested regions of South America including the Atlantic forests and interior Amazon.     

The Florey lecture, 1983. Biological control, as exemplified by smallpox eradication and myxomatosis

Biological control is an important method of dealing with plant and insect pests. The control of rabbits by myxomatosis and the eradication of smallpox by vaccination are unusual examples of biological control, in that they involve a vertebrate and a viral pest respectively. Myxomatosis is a benign disease in Sylvilagus rabbits in South America which is transmitted mechanically by mosquitoes. In the European rabbit, Oryctolagus, which is a pest in Australia and England, the virus from Sylvilagus produces a generalized disease that is almost always lethal. Myxomatosis was deliberately introduced into Australia in 1950 and into Europe in 1952. It was at first spectacularly successful in controlling the rabbit pest, but biological adjustments occurred in the virulence of the virus and the genetic resistances of rabbits. After 30 years of interaction, natural selection has resulted in a balance at a fairly high level of viral virulence. Smallpox has been a major scourge of mankind for over 1500 years. It spread from Asia to Europe in the Middle ages and from Europe to Africa and the Americas in the 15th and 16th centuries. Jenner's cowpox vaccine provided a method of control that reduced the severity of the disease during the 19th century but failed to eliminate the disease from many countries before the 1930s. Thereafter it was eradicated from Europe and North America, but remained endemic in South America, Africa and Asia. In 1967 it was still endemic in 33 countries and W.H.O. established a programme for global eradication within 10 years. The goal was achieved in 1977. Problems of the eradication programme and reasons for its success will be described.     

黄热病现状及其疫苗的研究与应用

黄热病(yellow fever,YF)是一种经由伊蚊叮咬传播的急性出血性传染病,流行区主要集中在非洲西部、南美洲等热带地区,临床症状包括高热、恶心、呕吐、黄疸、出血等。黄热病的病原体为黄热病毒(yellow fever virus, YFV),是黄病毒科黄病毒属的单股正链RNA病毒。目前,YF治疗尚无特效药物,以对症治疗和支持治疗为主,接种YF-17D减毒活疫苗是最有效的预防方法。尽管YF-17D已被全球认可,但是疫苗接种所致的不良反应时有报道。本文对近年黄热病的流行情况、疫苗研究进展和应用进行综述。     

Spread and impact of introduced conifers in South America: Lessons from other southern hemisphere regions

The history of conifers introduced earlier elsewhere in the southern hemisphere suggests that recent invasions in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Uruguay are likely to increase in number and size. In South Africa, New Zealand and Australia, early ornamental introductions and small forestry plantations did not lead to large‐scale invasions, while subsequent large plantations were followed with a lag of about 20–30 years by troublesome invasions. Large‐scale conifer plantation forestry in South America began about 50–80 years later than in South Africa, Australia and New Zealand, while reports of invasions in South America lagged behind those in the latter nations by a century. Impacts of invading non‐native conifers outside South America are varied and include replacement of grassland and shrubland by conifer forest, alteration of fire and hydrological regimes, modification of soil nutrients, and changes in aboveground and belowground biotic communities. Several of these effects have already been detected in various parts of South America undergoing conifer invasion. The sheer amount of area planted in conifers is already very large in Chile and growing rapidly in Argentina and Brazil. This mass of reproductive trees, in turn, produces an enormous propagule pressure that may accelerate ongoing invasions and spark new ones at an increasing rate. Regulations to control conifer invasions, including measures to mitigate spread, were belatedly implemented in New Zealand and South Africa, as well as in certain Australian states, inspired by observations on invasions in those nations. Regulations in South America are weaker and piecemeal, but the existing research base on conifer invasions elsewhere could be useful in fashioning effective regulations in South America. Pressure from foreign customers in South Africa has led most companies there to seek certification through the Forestry Stewardship Council; a similar programme operates in Australia. Such an approach may be promising in South America.     

Reviewing the history of HIV-1: spread of subtype B in the Americas

The dispersal of HIV-1 subtype B (HIV-1B) is a reflection of the movement of human populations in response to social, political, and geographical issues. The initial dissemination of HIV-1B outside Africa seems to have included the passive involvement of human populations from the Caribbean in spreading the virus to the United States. However, the exact pathways taken during the establishment of the pandemic in the Americas remain unclear. Here, we propose a geographical scenario for the dissemination of HIV-1B in the Americas, based on phylogenetic and genetic statistical analyses of 313 available sequences of the pol gene from 27 countries. Maximum likelihood and bayesian inference methods were used to explore the phylogenetic relationships between HIV-1B sequences, and molecular variance estimates were analyzed to infer the genetic structure of the viral population. We found that the initial dissemination and subsequent spread of subtype B in the Americas occurred via a single introduction event in the Caribbean around 1964 (1950-1967). Phylogenetic trees present evidence of several primary outbreaks in countries in South America, directly seeded by the Caribbean epidemic. Cuba is an exception insofar as its epidemic seems to have been introduced from South America. One clade comprising isolates from different countries emerged in the most-derived branches, reflecting the intense circulation of the virus throughout the American continents. Statistical analysis supports the genetic compartmentalization of the virus among the Americas, with a close relationship between the South American and Caribbean epidemics. These findings reflect the complex establishment of the HIV-1B pandemic and contribute to our understanding between the migration process of human populations and virus diffusion.     

Molecular evolution of Zika virus as it crossed the Pacific to the Americas

Zika virus was previously considered to cause only a benign infection in humans. Studies of recent outbreaks of Zika virus in the Pacific, South America, Mexico and the Caribbean have associated the virus with severe neuropathology. Viral evolution may be one factor contributing to an apparent change in Zika disease as it spread from Southeast Asia across the Pacific to the Americas. To address this possibility, we have employed computational tools to compare the phylogeny, geography, immunology and RNA structure of Zika virus isolates from Africa, Asia, the Pacific and the Americas. In doing so, we compare and contrast methods and results for tree search and rooting of Zika virus phylogenies. In some phylogenetic analyses we find support for the hypothesis that there is a deep common ancestor between African and Asian clades (the “Asia/Africa” hypothesis). In other phylogenetic analyses, we find that Asian lineages are descendent from African lineages (the “out of Africa” hypothesis). In addition, we identify and evaluate key mutations in viral envelope protein coding and untranslated terminal RNA regions. We find stepwise mutations that have altered both immunological motif sets and regulatory sequence elements. Both of these sets of changes distinguish viruses found in Africa from those in the emergent Asia–Pacific–Americas lineage. These findings support the working hypothesis that mutations acquired by Zika virus in the Pacific and Americas contribute to changes in pathology. These results can inform experiments required to elucidate the role of viral genetic evolution in changes in neuropathology, including microcephaly and other neurological and skeletomuscular issues in infants, and Guillain‐Barré syndrome in adults.     

Predicting the current distribution and potential spread of the exotic grass Eragrostis plana Nees in South America and identifying a bioclimatic niche shift during invasion

Eragrostis plana (Poaceae) is a perennial grass introduced from South Africa to the state of Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil. Currently, it is considered an invasive grass in several regions of the world, including South America, where it has caused negative ecological and socio‐economic impacts. Ecological niche models, using bioclimatic variables, are often used to predict the potential distribution of invasive species. In this study we prepared two bioclimatic models for E. plana using the Genetic Algorithm for Rule‐set Production, the first based on data from its native region (South Africa) and the second on data from both the native and invaded (South America) regions. We then projected each model onto South America to identify regions vulnerable to invasion by the species, and compared our results with available records of the species in South America. Finally, we explored the model's predictions for the existence of a bioclimatic niche shift during the invasion process of E. plana in South America, using multivariate statistical analysis. The model created with native distribution data was only able to predict (with highly suitable habitat) the region of introduction of E. plana in South America. However, the current distribution, as well as the region of introduction of the species, was reliably predicted by the model created with data from both native and invaded regions. Our multivariate analysis supports a hypothesis of bioclimatic niche shift during the invasion process of E. plana in South America.     

Fusarium ananatum sp. nov. in the Gibberella fujikuroi species complex from pineapples with fruit rot in South Africa

Pineapple (Ananas comosus) is native to South America and widely planted as a fruit crop in the tropics and sub-tropics. This plant is susceptible to a number of fungal diseases of which the most severe is fusariosis. The disease is caused by Fusarium guttiforme and occurs only in South and Central America. The occurrence of a similar disease on pineapples in South Africa has prompted a re-evaluation of the Fusarium sp. associated with pineapple fruit rot. Phylogenetic relationships of isolates from pineapples collected in Brazil and South Africa were assessed based on sequence data for the translation elongation factor-1-α, histone H3 and β-tubulin gene regions. Analyses showed that the South African isolates represent a species distinct from Brazilian isolates. The South African isolates are characterised by a concentration of aerial mycelium at the centres of the colonies, different to the Brazilian isolates that have an even distribution of aerial mycelium. Both phylogenetic and morphological data show that the disease on pineapple in South Africa is caused by a new Fusarium species described here as F. ananatum sp. nov.     

Holocene vegetation change and the mammal faunas of South America and Africa

Aim Although sharing many similarities in their vegetation types, South America and Africa harbour very dissimilar recent mammal faunas, not only taxonomically but also in terms of several faunistic patterns. However late Pleistocene and mid‐Holocene faunas, albeit taxonomically distinct, presented many convergent attributes. Here we propose that the effects of the Holocene climatic change on vegetation physiognomy has played a crucial role in shaping the extant mammalian faunistic patterns. Location South America and Africa from the late Pleistocene to the present. Methods Data presented here have been compiled from many distinct sources, including palaeontological and neontological mammalian studies, palaeoclimatology, palynology, and publications on vegetation ecology. Data on Pleistocene, Holocene and extant mammal faunas of South America and Africa allowed us to establish a number of similar and dissimilar faunistic patterns between the two continents across time. We then considered what changes in vegetation physiognomy would have occurred under the late Pleistocene last glacial maximum (LGM) and the Holocene climatic optimum (HCO) climatic regimes. We have ordained these proposed vegetation changes along rough physiognomic seral stages according to assumptions based on current botanical research. Finally, we have associated our hypothesized vegetation changes in South America and Africa with mammalian faunistic patterns, establishing a putative causal relationship between them. Results The extant mammal faunas of South America and Africa differ widely in taxonomical composition; the number of medium and large species they possess; behavioural and ecological characteristics related to herbivore herding, migration and predation; and biogeographical patterns. All such distinctions are mostly related to the open formation faunas, and have been completely established around the mid‐Holocene. Considering that the mid‐Holocene was a time of greater humidity than the late Pleistocene, vegetation cover in South America and Africa would have been dominated by forest or closed vegetation landscapes, at least for most of their lower altitude tropical regions. We attribute the loss of larger‐sized mammal lineages in South America to the decrease of open vegetation area, and their survival in Africa to the existence of vast savannas in formerly steppic or desertic areas in subtropical Africa, north and south of the equator. Alternative explanations, mostly dealing with the disappearance of South American megamammals, are then reviewed and criticized. Main conclusions The reduction of open formation areas during the HCO in South America and Africa explains most of the present distinct faunistic patterns between the two continents. While South America would have lost most of its open formations within the 30° latitudinal belt, Africa would have kept large areas suitable to the open formation mammalian fauna in areas presently occupied by desert and semi‐arid vegetation. Thus, the same general climatic events that affected South America in the late Pleistocene and Holocene also affected Africa, leading to our present day faunistic dissimilarities by maintaining the African mammalian communities almost unchanged while dramatically altering those of South America.     

Nucleotide variation of the Est-6 gene region in natural populations of Drosophila melanogaster

We have investigated nucleotide polymorphism in the Est-6 gene region in four samples of Drosophila melanogaster derived from natural populations of East Africa (Zimbabwe), Europe (Spain), North America (California), and South America (Venezuela). There are two divergent sequence types in the North and South American samples, which are not perfectly (North America) or not at all (South America) associated with the Est-6 allozyme variation. Less pronounced or no sequence dimorphism occurs in the European and African samples, respectively. The level of nucleotide diversity is highest in the African sample, lower (and similar to each other) in the samples from Europe and North America, and lowest in the sample from South America. The extent of linkage disequilibrium is low in Africa (1.23% significant associations), but much higher in non-African populations (22.59, 21.45, and 37.68% in Europe, North America, and South America, respectively). Tests of neutrality with recombination are significant in non-African samples but not significant in the African sample. We propose that demographic history (bottleneck and admixture of genetically different populations) is the major factor shaping the nucleotide patterns in the Est-6 gene region. However, positive selection modifies the pattern: balanced selection creates elevated levels of nucleotide variation around functionally important (target) polymorphic sites (RsaI-/RsaI+ in the promoter region and F/S in the coding region) in both African and non-African samples; and directional selection, acting during the geographic expansion phase of D. melanogaster, creates an excess of very similar sequences (RsaI- and S allelic lineages, in the promoter and coding regions, respectively) in the non-African samples.     

Rapid global spread of two aggressive strains of a wheat rust fungus

Rust fungi can overcome the effect of host resistance genes rapidly, and spores can disperse long distance by wind. Here we demonstrate a foreign incursion of similar strains of the wheat yellow rust fungus, Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici , in North America, Australia and Europe in less than 3 years. One strain defined by identity at 15 virulence loci and 130 amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) fragments was exclusive to North America (present since 2000) and Australia (since 2002). Another strain of the same virulence phenotype, but differing in two AFLP fragments, was exclusive to Europe (present since 2000–2001) as well as Western and Central Asia and the Red Sea Area (first appearance unknown). This may be the most rapid spread of an important crop pathogen on the global scale. The limited divergence between the two strains and their derivatives, and the temporal–spatial occurrence pattern confirmed a recent spread. The data gave evidence for additional intercontinental dispersal events in the past, that is, many isolates sampled before 2000 in Europe, North America and Australia had similar AFLP fingerprints, and isolates from South Africa, which showed no divergence in AFLP, differed by only two fragments from particular isolates from Central Asia, West Asia and South Europe, respectively. Previous research has demonstrated that isolates of the two new strains produced up to two to three times more spores per day than strains found in USA and Europe before 2000, suggesting that increased aggressiveness at this level may accelerate global spread of crop pathogens.