The diagnostic value of haematuria and proteinuria in Schistosoma haematobium infection in southern Nigeria.

Haematuria and proteinuria as detected by chemical reagent strips correlated moderately (r = 0.7) with prevalence and intensity of infection with Schistosoma haematobium in an area of Anambra State, Nigeria. Differences attributable to age and sex were also reflected in a similar pattern, all peaks occurring in the 5-14 year age group. The differences observed with varying levels of intensity and haematuria at both 10 and 50 erythrocytes/microliter (p < 0.001) and proteinuria at 0.3 g/dl (p < 0.01) were statistically significant. At a proteinuria level of 1 g/dl, the observed differences were however not statistically significant (p > 0.5). The percentage of specimens from children (0-14 years) positive for S. haematobium eggs and with at least traces of haematuria and proteinuria (63.4% and 95%, respectively) was higher than in adults (33.3% and 80.2%, respectively). All individuals with more than 50 eggs/10 ml of urine were correctly identified using both indices either separately or in combination. For egg counts of less than 50 eggs/10 ml of urine, false diagnosis occurred in only 5% of all specimens examined. The sensitivity and specificity of haematuria and proteinuria at trace quantities was very high, but haematuria had a higher predictive value for a positive test (PvPt) and was considered the overall better indicator. A combination of both indices did not significantly increase the PvPt. When trace haematuria and moderate proteinuria were combined, both the sensitivity, specificity and PvPt were all above 90%, giving the best overall values in all the combinations made.     

Schistosoma haematobium infections in preschool children from two rural communities in Ijebu East, south-western Nigeria

There is an urgent need for information on schistosomiasis in preschool children, who are often excluded in mass treatment programmes. The prevalence and intensity of Schistosoma haematobium infection were determined in preschool children aged ≤ 6 years in two rural communities in Ijebu East, south-western Nigeria. Two urine samples each were collected from 83 preschool children from the two communities, tested for microhaematuria using reagent strips and then processed and examined with a microscope for S. haematobium eggs. Focus group discussions on perceptions of the disease and water contact practices were held in the communities with their guardians, caregivers and preschool children, using an interview guide. The prevalence of S. haematobium in the two communities was 14 (16.9%), with no significant differences (P = 0.661) in infection rate between boys (18.4%) and girls (14.7%). Both prevalence and intensity of infection did not increase significantly with age in both Korede and Obada community. However, there were significant differences in prevalence of infection between the two communities (P = 0.035). There was no association (P = 0.750) between intensity in boys (0.176 eggs/10 ml urine) and girls (0.110 eggs/10 ml urine). Focal group discussions with guardians and caregivers revealed that preschool children acquired infection early in their lives through exposure to infected stream water by their mothers, while the older children visit the stream for playing, bathing and swimming. It has therefore become imperative for preschool children to be included in the planning of schistosomiasis intervention programmes as a means of reducing transmission.     

Urinary schistosomiasis in southern Ghana: 1. Prevalence and morbidity assessment in three (defined) rural areas drained by the Densu river

Epidemiological studies on urinary schistosomiasis were carried out in eight villages in the Ga and Akuapem South districts in Ghana. Single urine samples were collected from individuals aged 5 years and above between 10.00 and 14.00 h. The samples were examined for the presence of Schistosoma haematobium eggs using a filtration technique. Indirect morbidity was determined as the presence of microhaematuria and proteinuria using reagent strips, and macrohaematuria was recorded with the naked eye. Out of the study population of 3912 subjects, 2562 (65.5%) submitted urine samples. The prevalence of a Schistosoma haematobium infection ranged between 54.8 and 60.0%. Infection rates increased by age with a peak in the 10-19 years category, and decreased with increasing age. Disease prevalence was higher in males aged 15 years and above in Areas 2 (Ntoaso and Sansami Amanfro) and 3 (Dom Faase, Papase, Chento and Gidi Kope), whereas it was higher among males aged 10 years and above in Area 1 (Ayikai Doblo and Akramaman). The intensity of infection was highest among children aged 10-14 years in most of the villages. More than half of egg-positive children in this age group had a heavy infection (100 eggs and above in 10 ml of urine). Although both egg-positive and egg-negative individuals manifested variable degrees of macro- or micro-haematuria, microhaematuria was more prevalent among egg-positives (chi(2)=918.5, d.f.=1, P<0.01). The degree of microhaematuria and proteinuria were significantly associated with the intensity of the infection. These results indicate a high transmission of disease in the study area.     

Endemicity, focality and seasonality of transmission of human schistosomiasis in Amagunze Village, eastern Nigeria

The pattern of transmission of human schistosomiasis was studied in Amagunze Village, eastern Nigeria, during 1986-1987. The prevalence of Schistosoma haematobium in 119 schoolboys aged 5-12 years was 79%. The geometric mean of intensity of infection was 49 eggs/10 ml urine and the frequency of visible haematuria was 25.2%. No S. mansoni infections were demonstrated. A marked seasonality in population density of Bulinus truncatus, B. forskalii and Biomphalaria pfeifferi was demonstrated with reduced densities during the late rainy and early dry seasons. Schistosoma sp. infected B. truncatus were found in the late dry and early rainy seasons in 2 out of 7 major human water contact sites studied. Seasonality and focality of transmission of S. haematobium and its high endemicity in the area were thus demonstrated.     

A study of an outbreak of schistosomiasis in two resettlement villages near Abeokuta, Ogun State, Nigeria

Frequent reports of haematuria among resettlers at Ibaro and Abule-titun located close to a newly constructed reservoir, 20 km north-west of Abeokuta, Ogun State, Nigeria, prompted a pre-control survey to assess age and sex distribution of urinary schistosomiasis in the communities. 210 persons were examined at Ibaro and 145 at Abule-titun between April 1988 and February 1989. Overall prevalence was about 80% in both villages, and all age and sex groups examined were affected. The pattern of infection in both villages was similar, prevalence being high in all age and sex groups, and, unlike most endemic communities, the rate of infection was not significantly higher among the 5-14 year age groups. Intensity of infection was also high in all age and sex groups with mean range egg output of between 73 +/- 73 and 2016 +/- 3875 ova/10ml urine at Ibaro and between 231 +/- 122 and 1340 +/- 1786 ova/10ml urine at Abule-titun. This is attributed to an occupation-related high rate of human water contact in both villages.     

Field-based evaluation of a reagent strip test for diagnosis of schistosomiasis mansoni by detecting circulating cathodic antigen (CCA) in urine in low endemic area in Ethiopia

The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of a reagent strip test for the diagnosis of schistosomiasis mansoni by detecting circulating cathodic antigen (CCA) in urine were evaluated using 184 stool and urine samples collected from schoolchildren living in relatively low endemic area of schistosomiasis mansoni in Ethiopia. A combined result of stool samples processed by Kato and formol-ether concentration methods was used as gold standard. The results showed that detection of CCA in urine using reagent strip test was slightly higher than the combined results of the stool techniques (65.2 % vs 42.4 %, p > 0.05) in suggesting the prevalence of the disease. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the reagent strip test were 76.9 %, 43.4 %, 50 % and 71.9 %, respectively. The result of egg counts using Kato method suggested that detection of urine CCA could be used to indicate the intensity of infection. Nevertheless, like that of stool examination, the reagent strip test was found to be less sensitive in case of light to moderate infections. About 23.1 % of the study children who were excreting the eggs of the parasite were found negative by the reagent strip test. The relative insensitivity of a reagent strip test in low intensity of infection necessitates for the development of more sensitive assay that can truly discriminate schistosome-infected from non-infected individuals.     

Genitourinary schistosomiasis among pre-primary schoolchildren in a rural community within the Cross River Basin, Nigeria

In Africa, most schistosomiasis control programmes defined the age 5-19 years as the target population for nationwide control through the school systems, excluding the under fives. A study was therefore undertaken to determine the prevalence and intensity of genitourinary schistosomiasis in children aged 0-5 years (pre-primary) in Adim, a rural and endemic community within the Cross River Basin, Nigeria. Of the 126 children examined, 25 (19.8%) were infected with Schistosoma haematobium, with no significant difference (P > 0.05) in infection rates between boys (21.1%) and girls (18.2%). Both prevalence and intensity of infection increased significantly (P 0.05) between intensity in boys (6.2 eggs/10 ml urine) and girls (5.6 eggs/10 ml urine). A total of 32.5 and 27.8% of the children had haematuria and proteinuria, respectively; it was not gender specific (P > 0.05). Six species of snail were encountered, with Bulinus globosus being the most abundant and widespread. The results of this study have shown that pre-primary schoolchildren are a source of transmission of schistosomiasis in endemic communities and should be integrated into any control intervention.     

The prevalence, intensity and clinical signs of urinary schistosomiasis in Imo state, Nigeria

Urine samples were assayed for urinary schistosomiasis in four local government areas (LGA) of Imo State, Nigeria between May 1998 and September 2000. A total of 3504 persons were sampled, with 880 (25.1%) being positive for urinary schistosomiasis, based on records of eggs of Schistosoma haematobium. The prevalence of S. haematobium infection differed in the various LGAs, with Oguta (38.9%) and Owerri-West (10.4%) showing the highest and the lowest values, respectively. Prevalence was higher in males (67.4%) than in females (32.6%) and in subjects 11-20 years of age (31.5%), while prevalence varied among different occupational groups, with farmers ranking the highest (41.6%). Visible haematuria was the predominant symptom (P<0.05). Of 880 persons positive for eggs of S. haematobium, 452 (51.4%) had visible haematuria, followed by suprapubic pains 214 (24.3%) and painful micturition 97 (11.0%). Although 367 (10. 5%) of the sampled subjects with eggs of S. haematobium showed no visible haematuria, 513 (14.6%) clearly demonstrated haematuria.     

Urinary schistosomiasis on Pemba Island: low-cost diagnosis for control in a primary health care setting

In the 1970s and early 1980s indirect diagnosis of urinary schistosomiasis, using urinalysis reagent strips for proteinuria and haematuria, was proposed as a possible alternative to the more accurate but very time-consuming parasitological methods. The recent experience o f the Schistosomiasis Control Programme for Pemba Island, which used a combination of (1) observations o f grossly bloody urine specimens, (2) results from reagent strips for measuring haematuria, and (3) treatment with praziquantel, is the first large-scale example o f a simple, inexpensive and promising alternative for controlling the morbidity caused by this parasite.     

Seasonal patterns in the transmission of Schistosoma haematobium in Attaouia, Morocco.

In the Attaouia area, the density of Bulinus truncatus (Audouin, 1827), was monitored monthly for a period of one year in correlation with weather variations. Snails were active throughout the year and particularly abundant at the end of spring and summer. Two snail generations were found to overlap. The infection rate of B. truncatus reached a maximum of 3.5% in the summer when human water contact was frequent. A selective survey conducted in the village of Lamyayha showed that the prevalence of infection with S. haematobium among the local population was 21.2% who were passing from 10 to 80 eggs per 10 ml of urine.     

The validity of haematuria in the community diagnosis of urinary schistosomiasis infections

The validity and reliability of haematuria when used as screening criteria in community diagnosis of urinary schistosomiasis is presented. Between May and July, 1998, 1173 persons were screened for haematuria and examined for the presence of eggs of Schistosoma haematobium in their urine from all participating households in the Ozitem area of Bende Local Government Area, Abia State, Nigeria. Haematuria showed a sensitivity rate of 41.0% and specificity of 82.0% when used to identify cases of urinary schistosomiasis. Some factors that influenced the validity of haematuria as a diagnostic criterion are discussed. The use of haematuria amongst subjects in the first twenty years of their life is recommended.     

The epidemiological status of urogenital schistosomiasis among reproductive aged individuals in the Tiko Health Area- a semi-urban setting in the Mount Cameroon area

BackgroundUrogenital schistosomiasis (UGS) caused by S. haematobium has enormous reproductive health consequences including infertility. Reproductive aged individuals are a neglected group and not included in control programs in Cameroon. This study investigated the prevalence and severity of S. haematobium infection in the context of gender and socio-economic structures that shape behaviour among reproductive aged individuals living in Tiko, a semi-urban setting, Cameroon.Methodology/Principal findingsA cross-sectional study was carried out in the Tiko Health District (THD) between May to September 2019. Consenting individuals were enrolled using a convenient sampling technique and administered a semi-structured questionnaire to document data on socio-demographic and stream contact behaviour. A urine sample was collected and screened for the presence of S. haematobium ova using reagent strips, filtration and microscopy. The overall prevalence of S. haematobium infection was 22.8% (95% CL: 19.27–26.73) with geometric mean egg load of 18.74 (range: 1–1600) per 10ml of urine. Younger age group (15 – 20years) (OR: 5.13; 95% CL: 1.35–19.42), male (OR: 2.60 3.07; 95% CL: 1.54–4.40) and awareness of UGS (OR: 1.73; 95% CL: 1.02–2.95) were associated with higher odds of exposure to infection. Significantly higher intensity of infection was seen in males, singles and in the age group 15–30 years. It is worth noting that males carried out more activities which entailed longer duration in streams.Conclusion/SignificanceThe prevalence obtained shows that Tiko is a moderate-risk area for UGS with underlying morbidity-inducing infection intensity. The severity of the infection is more in males. Awareness of the disease is not enough to protect these communities from infection, but provision of public infrastructures and health education will limit contact with infested water and thus curtail the infection. There is an urgent need to involve all age groups in control programs.     

Single dose oral treatment in urinary schistosomiasis: a double blind trial.

A double blind trial of three oral preparations given in single doses for the treatment of Schistosoma haematobium infection was carried out in schoolchildren; selection was biased towards those who excreted large quantities of eggs. Praziquantel 40 mg/kg was the most effective drug giving a greater than 97% reduction in egg output six months after treatment; combined treatment with niridazole 25 mg/kg and metrifonate 10 mg/kg gave a reduction of greater than 92% and metrifonate 10 mg/kg alone a reduction of greater than 86%. Fewer children continued to have moderate to heavy infections (excretion greater than 124 ova/10 ml urine) six months after treatment with praziquantel (5%) and the combined regimen (7%) than with metrifonate (16%). Though our findings show that praziquantel appears to be the most effective and convenient drug available for individuals with S haematobium infection, the combined regimen is a cheaper alternative for treatment where cost is important and parasitological cure not an essential objective.     

Evaluation of circulating cathodic antigen (CCA) strip for diagnosis of urinary schistosomiasis in Hassoba school children, Afar, Ethiopia

A total of 206 urine samples collected from Hassoba Elementary schoolchildren, Afar, Ethiopia, a low Schistosoma haematobium endemic setting, was diagnosed to evaluate the performance of CCA strip using double references, urine filtration technique and urinalysis dipstick (Combur 1.0 Test) that detect schistosome eggs and blood in urine, respectively. The former was used as a gold standard reference method. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values for the CCA were 52%, 63.8%, 56.7% and 59% respectively, with reference to urine filtration technique whereas these parameters were 50.4%, 62.4%, 55.6% and 57.5% respectively, with reference to Combur 10 Test. 47 S. haematobium egg-positive children were found negative by CCA strip while 38 egg-negative children were found positive by CCA strip. Moreover, among the pre-tests done in duplicate, inconsistent results were also recorded. Assays were also compared with regard to the cost of equipment and reagents, speed and simplicity of use. Though CCA strip was found to be rapid and could be performed with minimal training, it was found to be expensive (US $ 4.95 per test) to use it for large-scale field use even if its diagnostic value would have been satisfactory. Further development and standardization of the CCA strip are required for its applicability for field use. It is also recommended that its cost per strip should be substantially cut down if it is to be used in poor schistosomiasis endemic countries.     

Infection intensity-dependent accuracy of reagent strip for the diagnosis of Schistosoma haematobium and estimation of treatment prevalence thresholds

BackgroundReagent strip to detect microhematuria as a proxy for Schistosoma haematobium infections has been considered an alternative to urine filtration for individual diagnosis and community-based estimates of treatment needs for preventive chemotherapy. However, the diagnostic accuracy of reagent strip needs further investigation, particularly at low infection intensity levels.MethodsWe used existing data from a study conducted in Tanzania that employed urine filtration and reagent strip testing for S. haematobium in two villages, including a baseline and six follow-up surveys after praziquantel treatment representing a wide range of infection prevalence. We developed a Bayesian model linking individual S. haematobium egg count data based on urine filtration to reagent strip binary test results available on multiple days and estimated the relation between infection intensity and sensitivity of reagent strip. Furthermore, we simulated data from 3,000 hypothetical populations with varying mean infection intensity to infer on the relation between prevalence observed by urine filtration and the interpretation of reagent strip readings.Principal findingsReagent strip showed excellent sensitivity even for single measurement reaching 100% at around 15 eggs of S. haematobium per 10 ml of urine when traces on reagent strip were considered positive. The corresponding specificity was 97%. When traces were considered negative, the diagnostic accuracy of the reagent strip was equivalent to urine filtration data obtained on a single day. A 10% and 50% urine filtration prevalence based on a single day sampling corresponds to 11.2% and 48.6% prevalence by reagent strip, respectively, when traces were considered negative, and 17.6% and 57.7%, respectively, when traces were considered positive.Conclusions/SignificanceTrace results should be included in reagent strip readings when high sensitivity is required, but excluded when high specificity is needed. The observed prevalence of reagent strip results, when traces are considered negative, is a good proxy for prevalence estimates of S. haematobium infection by urine filtration on a single day.     

Prevalence of Schistosomes and Soil-Transmitted Helminths among Schoolchildren in Lake Victoria Basin,Tanzania

The objectives of this study was to conduct a survey on schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections in order to come up with feasible control strategies in Lake Victoria basin, Tanzania. Depending on the size of the school, 150-200 schoolchildren were recruited for the study. Duplicate Kato-Katz stool smears were prepared from each child and microscopically examined for Schistosoma mansoni and STHs. Urine specimens were examined for Schistosoma haematobium eggs using the filtration technique. After the survey, mass drug administration was done using praziquantel and albendazole for schistosomiasis and STHs infections, respectively. A total of 5,952 schoolchildren from 36 schools were recruited for the study and had their stool and urine specimens examined. Out of 5,952 schoolchildren, 898 (15.1%) were positive for S. mansoni, 754 (12.6%) for hookworms, 188 (3.2%) for Ascaris lumblicoides, and 5 (0.008%) for Trichuris trichiura. Out of 5,826 schoolchildren who provided urine samples, 519 (8.9%) were positive for S. haematobium eggs. The results revealed that intestinal schistosomiasis, urogenital schistosomiasis, and STH infections are highly prevalent throughought the lake basin. The high prevalence of intestinal and urogenital schistosomisiasis in the study area was a function of the distance from Lake Victoria, the former being more prevalent at localities close to the lake, whilst the latter is more so away from it. Control of schistosomiasis and STHs in the study area requires an integrated strategy that involves provision of health education to communities, regular treatments, and provision of adequate safe water supply and sanitation facilities.     

The socio-economic effects of tropical diseases in Nigeria

Urinary schistosomiasis is the most prevalent of the endemic tropical diseases: 48% of the population is afflicted in the study area. The socio-economic, environmental and health-seeking behavioural characteristics of the population are conducive to the spread of urinary schistosomiasis. The attitudes considered include knowledge of what causes the disease and how to control it, attitude toward the disease, care of oneself, hygiene and sanitation. The effect of such social variables as stigmatisation, and environmental variables such as water source is also considered. We find that a unit increase in the hygiene/sanitation index for adult males and adult females lead to a reduction of about 7.3 and 4.0 eggs S. haematobium in 10 ml urine sample, respectively. Thus, simple hygienic activities such as keeping the immediate environment of the household free from human wastes contribute substantially to disease control. Furthermore, prevalence of the disease is higher among males. Losses from work attributed to urinary schistosomiasis are high. Average values of key socio-economic variables-labour flow for land clearing, farm size and cash income-computed for farm families with high urinary schistosomiasis intensity in the sample are 1085 h, 1.4 ha and N 1,432 (US dollars 65) respectively. The corresponding figures for farm families free from the disease are significantly higher: 1325 h, 1.9 ha and N 3,759 (US dollars 171), respectively.     

Evaluation of Circulating Cathodic Antigen (CCA) Urine-Tests for Diagnosis of Schistosoma mansoni Infection in Cameroon

Background

The Kato-Katz is the most common diagnostic method for Schistosoma mansoni infection. However, the day-to-day variability in host egg-excretion and its low detection sensitivity are major limits for its use in low transmission zones and after widespread chemotherapy. We evaluated the accuracy of circulating cathodic antigen (CCA) urine-assay as a diagnostic tool of S. mansoni. In comparison, a low sensitive CCA test (CCA-L) was assessed.

Methodology

The study was conducted in three settings: two foci with single S. mansoni infections (settings A and B), and one mixed S. mansoni – S. haematobium focus (setting C). Stool and urine samples were collected from school-children on three consecutive days. Triplicate Kato-Katz readings were performed per stool sample. Each urine sample was tested with one CCA and only the first urine sample was subjected to CCA-L. Urine samples were also examined for S. haematobium eggs using the filtration method and for microhaematuria using urine reagent strips. Overall, 625 children provided three stool and three urine samples.

Principal Findings

Considering nine Kato-Katz thick smears as ‘reference’ diagnostic test, the prevalence of S. mansoni was 36.2%, 71.8% and 64.0% in settings A, B and C, respectively. The prevalence of S. haematobium in setting C was 12.0%. The sensitivities of single Kato-Katz, CCA and CCA-L from the first stool or urine samples were 58%, 82% and 46% in setting A, 56.8%, 82.4% and 68.8% in setting B, and 49.0%, 87.7% and 55.5% in setting C. The respective specificities were 100%, 64.7% and 100%; 100%, 62.3% and 91.3%; and 100%, 42.5% and 92.0%. Mixed infection with S. haematobium did not influence the CCA test results for S. mansoni diagnosis.

Conclusions/Significance

Urine CCA revealed higher sensitivity than CCA-L and triplicate Kato-Katz, and produced similar prevalence as nine Kato-Katz. It seems an attractive method for S. mansoni diagnosis.     

Epidemiology of mixed Schistosoma mansoni and Schistosoma haematobium infections in northern Senegal

Due to the large overlap of Schistosoma mansoni- and Schistosoma haematobium-endemic regions in Africa, many people are at risk of co-infection, with potential adverse effects on schistosomiasis morbidity and control. Nonetheless, studies on the distribution and determinants of mixed Schistosoma infections have to date been rare. We conducted a cross-sectional survey in two communities in northern Senegal (n=857) to obtain further insight into the epidemiology of mixed infections and ectopic egg elimination. Overall prevalences of S. mansoni and S. haematobium infection were 61% and 50%, respectively, in these communities. Among infected subjects, 53% had mixed infections and 8% demonstrated ectopic egg elimination. Risk factors for mixed infection - i.e. gender, community of residence and age - were not different from what is generally seen in Schistosoma-endemic areas. Similar to overall S. mansoni and S. haematobium infections, age-related patterns of mixed infections showed the characteristic convex-shaped curve for schistosomiasis, with a rapid increase in children, a peak in adolescents and a decline in adults. Looking at the data in more detail however, the decline in overall S. haematobium infection prevalences and intensities appeared to be steeper than for S. mansoni, resulting in a decrease in mixed infections and a relative increase in single S. mansoni infections with age. Moreover, individuals with mixed infections had higher infection intensities of both S. mansoni and S. haematobium than those with single infections, especially those with ectopic egg elimination (P<0.05). High infection intensities in mixed infections, as well as age-related differences in infection patterns between S. mansoni and S. haematobium, may influence disease epidemiology and control considerably, and merit further studies into the underlying mechanisms of Schistosoma infections in co-endemic areas.     

Transmission of urinary schistosomiasis in Sukumaland, Tanzania. 1. Snail infection rates and incidence of infection in school children

Seasonal density fluctuations of Bulinus nasutus populations with accompanying Schistosoma haematobium infection rates in relation to rainfall and habitat water volumes were studied at Ukiriguru, Mwanza, Tanzania. Alongside the snail investigations, 50 school children initially negative for urinary schistosomiasis were examined regularly to determine seasonal incidence rates for the infection. Of the 17,646 B. nasutus collected in 2 years, 156 (0.88%) were found shedding cercariae. Snail populations fluctuated seasonally as influenced by rainfall through its effects on habitat water volume. Monthly snail infection rates ranged from 0.09% to 3.19% and were highest in February and March, at the time of the short dry period. Monthly incidence of S. haematobium in school children ranged between 2.6% and 12.5%, being highest in April and May. There was a significant linear association between monthly snail infection rates and S. haematobium incidence rates in school children (r2s = 0.65 in 1982/83; r2s = 0.87 in 1983/84) suggesting that the maximum transmission period for urinary schistosomiasis in the area occurs during the short dry period, sometime in February/March so that most of the infections in the community would be detected in April/May.