Non-climatic thermal adaptation: implications for species' responses to climate warming

There is considerable interest in understanding how ectothermic animals may physiologically and behaviourally buffer the effects of climate warming. Much less consideration is being given to how organisms might adapt to non-climatic heat sources in ways that could confound predictions for responses of species and communities to climate warming. Although adaptation to non-climatic heat sources (solar and geothermal) seems likely in some marine species, climate warming predictions for marine ectotherms are largely based on adaptation to climatically relevant heat sources (air or surface sea water temperature). Here, we show that non-climatic solar heating underlies thermal resistance adaptation in a rocky–eulittoral-fringe snail. Comparisons of the maximum temperatures of the air, the snail''s body and the rock substratum with solar irradiance and physiological performance show that the highest body temperature is primarily controlled by solar heating and re-radiation, and that the snail''s upper lethal temperature exceeds the highest climatically relevant regional air temperature by approximately 22°C. Non-climatic thermal adaptation probably features widely among marine and terrestrial ectotherms and because it could enable species to tolerate climatic rises in air temperature, it deserves more consideration in general and for inclusion into climate warming models.     

Climate change reduces reproductive success of an Arctic herbivore through trophic mismatch

In highly seasonal environments, offspring production by vertebrates is timed to coincide with the annual peak of resource availability. For herbivores, this resource peak is represented by the annual onset and progression of the plant growth season. As plant phenology advances in response to climatic warming, there is potential for development of a mismatch between the peak of resource demands by reproducing herbivores and the peak of resource availability. For migratory herbivores, such as caribou, development of a trophic mismatch is particularly likely because the timing of their seasonal migration to summer ranges, where calves are born, is cued by changes in day length, while onset of the plant-growing season on the same ranges is cued by local temperatures. Using data collected since 1993 on timing of calving by caribou and timing of plant growth in West Greenland, we document the consequences for reproductive success of a developing trophic mismatch between caribou and their forage plants. As mean spring temperatures at our study site have risen by more than 4 degrees C, caribou have not kept pace with advancement of the plant-growing season on their calving range. As a consequence, offspring mortality has risen and offspring production has dropped fourfold.     

Effects of warming and nutrients on sediment community respiration in shallow lakes: an outdoor mesocosm experiment

1. Climate warming is expected to change respiration in shallow lakes but to an extent that depends on nutrient state. 2. We measured sediment respiration (SR) over the season in the dark on intact sediment cores taken from a series of flow‐through, heated and unheated, nutrient‐enriched and unenriched mesocosms. The natural seasonal temperature cycle ranged from 2 to 20 °C in the unheated mesocosms. In the heated mesocosms, the temperature was raised 4–6 °C above ambient temperatures, depending on season, following the A2 climate change scenario downscaled to the local position of the mesocosms, but enlarged by 50%. We further measured ecosystem respiration (ER) in the mesocosms based on semi‐continuous oxygen measurements. 3. SR changed over the season and was approximately ten times higher in summer than in winter. SR showed no clear response to warming in the nutrient‐enriched treatment, while it increased with warming in the unenriched mesocosms which also had lower fish densities. 4. ER was not affected by artificial warming or nutrient enrichment, but it was ten times higher in summer than in winter. 5. SR contributed 24–32% to ER. The SR:ER ratio was generally stimulated by warming and was higher in winter than in summer, especially in the nutrient‐enriched mesocosms. 6. Our results indicate that climate warming may lead to higher SR, especially in clear, macrophyte‐dominated systems. Moreover, the contribution of SR to ER will increase with higher temperatures, but decrease as the winters get shorter.     

Predicting small‐mammal responses to climatic warming: autecology,geographic range,and the Holocene fossil record

Forecasting how species will respond to climatic change requires knowledge of past community dynamics. Here we use time‐series data from the small‐mammal fossil records of two caves in the Great Basin of the American West to evaluate how contrasting and variable local paleoclimates have shaped small‐mammal abundance dynamics over the last ～7500 years of climatic change. We then predict how species and communities will respond to future scenarios of increased warming and aridity coupled with continued spread of an invasive annual grass (Bromus tectorum). We find that most community‐level responses to climatic change occur in the mammalian abundance structure at both sites; the dominance of the community by individuals from species with a southern geographic affinity increases with climatic warming. This suggests that responses occurred in situ rather than by the immigration of new taxa over this time interval. Despite predictability at the community‐scale, species‐level relationships between abundance and climate are variable and are not necessarily explained by a species' geographic affinity. Species present at both sites, however, exhibit remarkably similar responses to climate at each site, indicating that species autecology (specifically dietary functional group) is important in determining response to climatic warming. Regression‐tree analyses show remarkable concordance between the two cave faunas and highlight the importance of a granivorous dietary strategy in this desert ecosystem. Under projections of increased temperature and decreased precipitation over the next 50 years, our results indicate that granivores should thrive as communities become more dominated by individuals with a southern geographic affinity. Granivores, however, are negatively impacted by the invasion of cheatgrass. The last century of anthropogenic impacts has thus placed granivores at a greater risk of extinction than predicted under climate‐only scenarios.     

The effects of phenological mismatches on demography

Climate change is altering the phenology of species across the world, but what are the consequences of these phenological changes for the demography and population dynamics of species? Time-sensitive relationships, such as migration, breeding and predation, may be disrupted or altered, which may in turn alter the rates of reproduction and survival, leading some populations to decline and others to increase in abundance. However, finding evidence for disrupted relationships, or lack thereof, and their demographic effects, is difficult because the necessary detailed observational data are rare. Moreover, we do not know how sensitive species will generally be to phenological mismatches when they occur. Existing long-term studies provide preliminary data for analysing the phenology and demography of species in several locations. In many instances, though, observational protocols may need to be optimized to characterize timing-based multi-trophic interactions. As a basis for future research, we outline some of the key questions and approaches to improving our understanding of the relationships among phenology, demography and climate in a multi-trophic context. There are many challenges associated with this line of research, not the least of which is the need for detailed, long-term data on many organisms in a single system. However, we identify key questions that can be addressed with data that already exist and propose approaches that could guide future research.     

Between-year variation in climate-related growth of circumarctic populations of the moss Hylocomium splendens

1. The correlation between climatic variables and past (up to 20 years) growth was studied in seven circumarctic populations of the moss Hylocomium splendens, using retrospective analyses of growth. We hypothesized that relationships between growth and climate would be simpler in an ectohydric moss than in higher plants and that the moss could provide high signal-to-noise ratios of responses to climatic variation.
2. Growth parameters of the moss were strongly correlated with early summer temperatures and with the length of the growing season. Annual segment mass, growth rates and degeneration rates were highest at the mildest subarctic sites and lowest at the high arctic site. In contrast, 'longevity' (age of the oldest segment) increased at the climatically harsher sites.
3. Between-year growth variations at two contrasting sites were significantly correlated with June and July temperatures and, to a lesser extent, with early-season precipitation at one of the sites.
4. The moss currently tolerates a wide range of climates and large interannual variations in temperature and is likely to be at risk from climatic change only at the southern edge of its range.
5. The climate-change component most likely to affect the growth of H. splendens in the Arctic and Subarctic will be a lengthening of the growing season and in increase in early summer temperatures provided that moisture is not limiting.
6. Hylocomium splendens is a suitable species for monitoring climatic change at a circumarctic scale.     

Is the Sonoran Desert losing its cool?

Freezing temperatures strongly influence vegetation in the hottest desert of North America, in part determining both its overall boundary and distributions of plant species within. To evaluate recent variability of freezing temperatures in this context, minimum temperature data from weather stations in the Sonoran Desert are examined. Data show widespread warming trends in winter and spring, decreased frequency of freezing temperatures, lengthening of the freeze‐free season, and increased minimum temperatures per winter year. Local land use and multidecadal modes of the global climate system such as the Pacific decadal oscillation and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation do not appear to be principal drivers of this warming. Minimum temperature variability in the Sonoran Desert does, however, correspond to global temperature variability attributed to human‐dominated global warming. With warming expected to continue at faster rates throughout the 21st century, potential ecological responses may include contraction of the overall boundary of the Sonoran Desert in the south‐east and expansion northward, eastward, and upward in elevation, as well as changes to distributions of plant species within and other characteristics of Sonoran Desert ecosystems. Potential trajectories of vegetation change in the Sonoran Desert region may be affected or made more difficult to predict by uncertain changes in warm season precipitation variability and fire. Opportunities now exist to investigate ecosystem response to regional climate disturbance, as well as to anticipate and plan for continued warming in the Sonoran Desert region.     

Experimental evidence of reduced diversity of seedlings due to climate modification in a Mediterranean-type community

We are still lacking in experimental evidence of the effects of climate change on the richness of plant species under field conditions. We report a decrease in the species richness of recruited seedlings in a Mediterranean shrubland in experimentally induced drought and warming over 4 consecutive years. Drought decreased the number of emerging seedlings and their respective species richness. Warming also decreased seedling species richness, but it did not affect the number of emerging seedlings. Species that produce fewer recruits are more likely to disappear in drier or warmer scenarios. However, when the effect of induced climate treatment was greatest, the more abundant species in control stands were not necessarily the ones least affected by treatment; in other words, species‐idiosyncratic responses may occur. These results show that demographic processes are sensitive to minor climate changes, with probable consequences on the diversity and structure of the future plant communities.     

Short- and long-term greenhouse gas and radiative forcing impacts of changing water management in Asian rice paddies

Fertilized rice paddy soils emit methane while flooded, emit nitrous oxide during flooding and draining transitions, and can be a source or sink of carbon dioxide. Changing water management of rice paddies can affect net emissions of all three of these greenhouse gases. We used denitrification–decomposition (DNDC), a process‐based biogeochemistry model, to evaluate the annual emissions of CH₄, N₂O, and CO₂ for continuously flooded, single‐, double‐, and triple‐cropped rice (three baseline scenarios), and in further simulations, the change in emissions with changing water management to midseason draining of the paddies, and to alternating crops of midseason drained rice and upland crops (two alternatives for each baseline scenario). We used a set of first‐order atmospheric models to track the atmospheric burden of each gas over 500 years. We evaluated the dynamics of the radiative forcing due to the changes in emissions of CH₄, N₂O, and CO₂ (alternative minus baseline), and compared these with standard calculations of CO₂‐equivalent emissions using global warming potentials (GWPs). All alternative scenarios had lower CH₄ emissions and higher N₂O emissions than their corresponding baseline cases, and all but one sequestered carbon in the soil more slowly. Because of differences in emissions, in radiative forcing per molecule, and in atmospheric time constants (lifetimes), the relative radiative impacts of CH₄, N₂O, and CO₂ varied over the 500‐year simulations. In three of the six cases, the initial change in radiative forcing was dominated by reduced CH₄ emissions (i.e. a cooling for the first few decades); in five of the six cases, the long‐term radiative forcing was dominated by increased N₂O emissions (i.e. a warming over several centuries). The overall complexity of the radiative forcing response to changing water management could not easily be captured with conventional GWP calculations.