Concepts of association between cancer and ionising radiation: accounting for specific biological mechanisms

The probability that an observed cancer was caused by radiation exposure is usually estimated using cancer rates and risk models from radioepidemiological cohorts and is called assigned share (AS). This definition implicitly assumes that an ongoing carcinogenic process is unaffected by the studied radiation exposure. However, there is strong evidence that radiation can also accelerate an existing clonal development towards cancer. In this work, we define different association measures that an observed cancer was newly induced, accelerated, or retarded. The measures were quantified exemplarily by Monte Carlo simulations that track the development of individual cells. Three biologically based two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) models were applied. In the first model, radiation initiates cancer development, while in the other two, radiation has a promoting effect, i.e. radiation accelerates the clonal expansion of pre-cancerous cells. The parameters of the TSCE models were derived from breast cancer data from the atomic bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. For exposure at age 30, all three models resulted in similar estimates of AS at age 60. For the initiation model, estimates of association were nearly identical to AS. However, for the promotion models, the cancerous clonal development was frequently accelerated towards younger ages, resulting in associations substantially higher than AS. This work shows that the association between a given cancer and exposure in an affected person depends on the underlying biological mechanism and can be substantially larger than the AS derived from classic radioepidemiology.

     

Breast cancer risk in atomic bomb survivors from multi-model inference with incidence data 1958–1998

Breast cancer risk from radiation exposure has been analyzed in the cohort of Japanese a-bomb survivors using empirical models and mechanistic two-step clonal expansion (TSCE) models with incidence data from 1958 to 1998. TSCE models rely on a phenomenological representation of cell transition processes on the path to cancer. They describe the data as good as empirical models and this fact has been exploited for risk assessment. Adequate models of both types have been selected with a statistical protocol based on parsimonious parameter deployment and their risk estimates have been combined using multi-model inference techniques. TSCE models relate the radiation risk to cell processes which are controlled by age-increasing rates of initiating mutations and by changes in hormone levels due to menopause. For exposure at young age, they predict an enhanced excess relative risk (ERR) whereas the preferred empirical model shows no dependence on age at exposure. At attained age 70, the multi-model median of the ERR at 1 Gy decreases moderately from 1.2 Gy⁻¹ (90% CI 0.72; 2.1) for exposure at age 25 to a 30% lower value for exposure at age 55. For cohort strata with few cases, where model predictions diverge, uncertainty intervals from multi-model inference are enhanced by up to a factor of 1.6 compared to the preferred empirical model. Multi-model inference provides a joint risk estimate from several plausible models rather than relying on a single model of choice. It produces more reliable point estimates and improves the characterization of uncertainties. The method is recommended for risk assessment in practical radiation protection.     

Bone cancer risk in mice exposed to 224Ra: protraction effects from promotion

This paper analyzes data for the osteosarcoma incidence in life-time experiments of (224)Ra injected mice with respect to the importance of initiating and promoting action of ionizing high LET-radiation. This was done with the biologically motivated two step clonal expansion (TSCE) model of tumor induction. Experimentally derived osteosarcoma incidence in 1,194 mice following exposure to (224)Ra with different total radiation doses and different fractionation patterns were analyzed together with incidence data from 1,710 unirradiated control animals. Effects of radiation on the initiating event and on the clonal expansion rate, i.e. on promotion were found to be necessary to explain the observed patterns with this model. The data show a distinct inverse protraction effect at high doses, whereas at lower doses this effect becomes insignificant. Such a behavior is well reproduced in the proposed model: At dose rates above 6 mGy/day a longer exposure produces higher ERR per dose, while for lower rates the reverse is the case. The TSCE model permits the deduction of several kinetic parameters of a postulated two-step bone tumorigenesis process. Mean exposure rates of 0.13 mGy/day are found to double the baseline initiation rate. At rates above 100 mGy/day, the initiation rate decreases. The clonal expansion rate is doubled at 8 mGy/day, and it levels out at rates beyond 100 mGy/day.     

Lung Cancer Mortality (1950-1999) among Eldorado Uranium Workers: A Comparison of Models of Carcinogenesis and Empirical Excess Risk Models

Lung cancer mortality after exposure to radon decay products (RDP) among 16,236 male Eldorado uranium workers was analyzed. Male workers from the Beaverlodge and Port Radium uranium mines and the Port Hope radium and uranium refinery and processing facility who were first employed between 1932 and 1980 were followed up from 1950 to 1999. A total of 618 lung cancer deaths were observed. The analysis compared the results of the biologically-based two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model to the empirical excess risk model. The spontaneous clonal expansion rate of pre-malignant cells was reduced at older ages under the assumptions of the TSCE model. Exposure to RDP was associated with increase in the clonal expansion rate during exposure but not afterwards. The increase was stronger for lower exposure rates. A radiation-induced bystander effect could be a possible explanation for such an exposure response. Results on excess risks were compared to a linear dose-response parametric excess risk model with attained age, time since exposure and dose rate as effect modifiers. In all models the excess relative risk decreased with increasing attained age, increasing time since exposure and increasing exposure rate. Large model uncertainties were found in particular for small exposure rates.     

Lung cancer in Mayak workers: interaction of smoking and plutonium exposure

Lung cancer mortality among 5058 male workers of the Mayak Production Association has been analyzed with emphasis on the interaction of smoking and radiation exposure by using the two-step clonal expansion (TSCE) model of carcinogenesis. The cohort consists of all Mayak workers with known smoking status, who were employed in the period 1948–1972, and who either had the plutonium concentration in urine measured or who worked in the reactors, where plutonium exposure was negligible. Those who died during the first two years after the first urine sampling were excluded. The follow-up extended until the end of 1998. During this time, 2176 workers died, including 244 lung cancer cases. Mayak workers were exposed to external (gamma and neutron) radiation, and in the radiochemical and plutonium plants to plutonium. In the preferred TSCE model, internal radiation and smoking act on the clonal expansion of pre-carcinogenic clones. Assuming a plutonium radiation weighting factor of 20, the excess relative risk per lung dose was estimated to be 0.11 (95% CI: 0.08; 0.17) Sv⁻¹. Most of the lung cancer deaths are found to be due to smoking. The second main factor is the interaction of smoking and internal radiation. The model is sub-multiplicative in relative risks due to smoking and radiation. In a multiplicative version of the TSCE model, internal radiation acts on initiation and transformation rates. This model version agrees with conventional epidemiological risk models, because it also suggests a higher risk estimate than the preferred TSCE model. However, it fits the data less well than the preferred model. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Prediction of clonal chromosome aberration frequency in human blood lymphocytes

We recently conducted a large-scale screening for clonal aberrations among atomic bomb survivors and proposed a model for the gross clonal composition of blood lymphocytes. Here we show an application of the model indicating that the number, m,of clones detectable by cytogenetic methods in an individual is predictable by the equation m= (1.8 + 6.4FG) x FP x n/500, where FG represents the estimated translocation frequency in the 46 chromosome set, FP is the observed translocation frequency with FISH or other methods, and nis the number of cells examined. Application of the equation to the results of seven other reports gave close agreement between the observed and calculated numbers of clones. Since the model assumes that clonal expansion is ubiquitous, and any translocation can be the constituent of a clone detectable by cytogenetic means, the vast majority of observed clonal expansions of these somatic cells are likely the result of random-hit events that are not detrimental to human health. Furthermore, since our model can predict the majority of clonal aberrations among Chernobyl workers who were examined 5-6 years after irradiation, clonal expansion seems to occur primarily within a few years after exposure to radiation, most likely being coupled with the process of recovery from radiation-induced injury in the lymphoid and hematopoietic systems.     

A biologically based model for liver cancer risk in the Swedish thorotrast patients

Data on liver tumors among 416 Swedish patients who were exposed to Thorotrast between 1930 and 1950 were analyzed with the biologically based two-step clonal expansion (TSCE) model. For background data, the Swedish Cancer Register for the follow-up period 1958 to 1997 was used. Effects of radiation on the initiating mutation and on the clonal expansion rate explained the observed patterns well. The TSCE model permits the deduction of several kinetic parameters of the postulated tumorigenesis process. Dose rates of 5 mGy/year double the spontaneous initiation rate. The clonal expansion rate is doubled by 80 mGy/year, and for females it reaches a plateau at dose rates beyond 240 mGy/year. For males the plateau is not significant. The magnitude of the estimated promoting effect of radiation can be explained with a moderate increase in the cell replacement probability for the intermediate cells in the liver, which is strikingly similar to the situation in lung tumorigenesis.     

Effects of exposure uncertainties in the TSCE model and application to the Colorado miners data

The simulations in this paper show that exposure measurement error affects the parameter estimates of the biologically motivated two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model. For both Berkson and classical error models, we show that likelihood-based techniques of correction work reliably. For classical errors, the distribution of true exposures needs to be known or estimated in addition to the distribution of recorded exposures conditional on true exposures. Usually the exposure uncertainty biases the model parameters toward the null and underestimates the precision. But when several parameters are allowed to be dependent on exposure, e.g. initiation and promotion, then their relative importance is also influenced, and more complicated effects of exposure uncertainty can occur. The application part of this paper shows for two different types of Berkson errors that a recent analysis of the data for the Colorado plateau miners with the TSCE model is not changed substantially when correcting for such errors. Specifically, the conjectured promoting action of radon remains as the dominant radiation effect for explaining these data. The estimated promoting action of radon increases by a factor of up to 1.2 for the largest assumed exposure uncertainties.     

Detrimental and protective bystander effects: a model approach

This work integrates two important cellular responses to low doses, detrimental bystander effects and apoptosis-mediated protective bystander effects, into a multistage model for chromosome aberrations and in vitro neoplastic transformation: the State-Vector Model. The new models were tested on representative data sets that show supralinear or U-shaped dose responses. The original model without the new low-dose features was also tested for consistency with LNT-shaped dose responses. Reductions of in vitro neoplastic transformation frequencies below the spontaneous level have been reported after exposure of cells to low doses of low-LET radiation. In the current study, this protective effect is explained with bystander-induced apoptosis. An important data set that shows a low-dose detrimental bystander effect for chromosome aberrations was successfully fitted by additional terms within the cell initiation stage. It was found that this approach is equivalent to bystander-induced clonal expansion of initiated cells. This study is an important step toward a comprehensive model that contains all essential biological mechanisms that can influence dose-response curves at low doses.     

Clonally expanded T-cell populations in atomic bomb survivors do not show excess levels of chromosome instability

Radiation-induced genomic instability has been studied primarily in cultured cells, while in vivo studies have been limited. One major obstacle for in vivo studies is the lack of reliable biomarkers that are capable of distinguishing genetic alterations induced by delayed radiation effects from those that are induced immediately after a radiation exposure. Here we describe a method to estimate cytogenetic instability in vivo using chromosomally marked clonal T-cell populations in atomic bomb survivors. The basic idea is that clonal translocations are derived from single progenitor cells that acquired an aberration, most likely after a radiation exposure, and then multiplied extensively in vivo, resulting in a large number of progeny cells that eventually comprise several percent of the total lymphocyte population. Therefore, if chromosome instability began to operate soon after a radiation exposure, an elevated frequency of additional but solitary chromosome aberrations in clonal cell populations would be expected. In the present study, six additional translocations were found among 936 clonal cells examined with the G-band method (0.6%); the corresponding value with multicolor FISH analysis was 1.2% (4/333). Since these frequencies were no higher than 1.2% (219/17,878 cells), the mean translocation frequency observed in control subjects using the G-band method, it is concluded that chromosome instabilities that could give rise to an increased frequency of persisting, exchange-type aberrations were not commonly generated by radiation exposure.     

Analysis of solid cancer mortality in the techa river cohort using the two-step clonal expansion model

In this study the solid cancer mortality data in the Techa River Cohort in the Southern Urals region of Russia was analyzed. The cohort received protracted exposure in the 1950s due to the releases of radioactive materials from the Mayak plutonium complex. The Extended Techa River Cohort includes 29,849 people who resided along the Techa River between 1950 and 1960 and were followed from January 1, 1950 through December 31, 1999. The analysis was done within the framework of the biologically based two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model. It was found that about 2.6% of the 1854 solid cancer deaths (excluding 18 bone cancer cases) could be related to radiation exposure. At age 63, which is the mean age for solid cancer deaths, the excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) were found to be 0.76 Gy(-1) (95% CI 0.23; 1.29) and 33.0 (10(4) PY Gy)(-1) (95% CI 9.8; 52.6), respectively. These risk estimates are consistent with earlier excess relative risk analyses for the same cohort. The change in the ERR with age was investigated in detail, and an increase in risk with attained age was observed. Furthermore, the data were tested for possible signs of genomic instability, and it was found that the data could be described equally well by a model incorporating effects of genomic instability. Results from the TSCE models indicated that radiation received at older ages might have stronger biological effects than exposure at younger ages.     

Lung tumour risk in radon-exposed rats from different experiments: comparative analysis with biologically based models

Data sets of radon-exposed male rats from Wistar and Sprague-Dawley strains have been investigated with two different versions of the two-step clonal expansion (TSCE) model of carcinogenesis. These so-called initiation-promotion (IP) and initiation-transformation (IT) models are named after the cell-based processes that are assumed to be induced by radiation. The analysis was done with all malignant lung tumours taken to be incidental and with fatal tumours alone. For all tumours treated as incidental, both models could explain the tumour incidence data equally well. Owing to its better fit, only the IP model was applied in the analysis of fatal tumours that carry additional information on the time when they cause death. A statistical test rejected the hypothesis that a joint cohort of Wistar and Sprague-Dawley rats can be described with the same set of model parameters. Thus, the risk analysis has been carried out for the Wistar rats and the Sprague-Dawley rats separately and has been restricted to fatal tumours alone because of their similar effect in humans. Using a refined technique of age-adjustment, the lifetime excess absolute risk has been standardised with the survival function from competing risks in the control population. The age-adjusted excess risks for both strains of rats were of similar size, for animals with first exposure later in life they decreased markedly. For high cumulative exposure the excess risk increased with longer exposure duration, for low cumulative exposure it showed the opposite trend. In addition, high cumulative exposure exerted lethal effects other than lung cancer on the rats.     

Differential effects of low- and high-dose X-rays on N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea-induced mutagenesis in thymocytes of B6C3F1 gpt-delta mice

Carcinogenesis in humans is thought to result from exposure to numerous environmental factors. Little is known, however, about how these different factors work in combination to cause cancer. Because thymic lymphoma is a good model of research for combined exposure, we examined the occurrence of mutations in thymic DNA following exposure of B6C3F1 gpt-delta mice to both ionizing radiation and N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea (ENU). Mice were exposed weekly to whole body X-irradiation (0.2 or 1.0 Gy), ENU (200 ppm) in the drinking water, or X-irradiation followed by ENU treatment. Thereafter, genomic DNA was prepared from the thymus and the number and types of mutations in the reporter transgene gpt was determined. ENU exposure alone increased mutant frequency by 10-fold compared to untreated controls and over 80% of mutants had expanded clonally. X-irradiation alone, at either low or high dose, unexpectedly, reduced mutant frequency. Combined exposure to 0.2 Gy X-rays with ENU dramatically decreased mutant frequency, specifically G:C to A:T and A:T to T:A mutations, compared to ENU treatment alone. In contrast, 1.0 Gy X-rays enhanced mutant frequency by about 30-fold and appeared to accelerate clonal expansion of mutated cells. In conclusion, repeated irradiation with 0.2 Gy X-rays not only reduced background mutation levels, but also suppressed ENU-induced mutations and clonal expansion. In contrast, 1.0 Gy irradiation in combination with ENU accelerated clonal expansion of mutated cells. These results indicate that the mode of the combined mutagenic effect is dose dependent.     

Lung cancer risk in mice: analysis of fractionation effects and neutron RBE with a biologically motivated model

Data from Argonne National Laboratory on lung cancer in 15,975 mice with acute and fractionated exposures to gamma rays and neutrons are analyzed with a biologically motivated model with two rate-limiting steps and clonal expansion. Fractionation effects and effects of radiation quality can be explained well by the estimated kinetic parameters. Both an initiating and a promoting action of neutrons and gamma rays are suggested. While for gamma rays the initiating event is described well with a linear dose-rate dependence, for neutrons a nonlinear term is needed, with less effectiveness at higher dose rates. For the initiating event, the neutron RBE compared to gamma rays is about 10 when the dose rate during each fraction is low. For higher dose rates this RBE decreases strongly. The estimated lifetime relative risk for radiation-induced lung cancers from 1 Gy of acute gamma-ray exposure at an age of 110 days is 1.27 for male mice and 1.53 for female mice. For doses less than 1 Gy, the effectiveness of fractionated exposure to gamma rays compared to acute exposure is between 0.4 and 0.7 in both sexes. For lifetime relative risk, the RBE from acute neutrons at low doses is estimated at about 10 relative to acute gamma-ray exposure. It decreases strongly with dose. For fractionated neutrons, it is lower, down to about 4 for male mice.     

Lifetime persistence and clonality of chromosome aberrations in the peripheral blood of mice acutely exposed to ionizing radiation

As the measurement of chromosomal translocations increases in popularity for quantifying prior radiation exposure, information on the possible decline of these "stable" aberrations over time is urgently needed. We report here information about the persistence of radiation-induced chromosome aberrations in vivo over the life span of a rodent. Female C57BL/6 mice were given a single whole-body acute exposure of 0, 1, 2, 3 or 4 Gy (137)Cs gamma rays at 8 weeks of age. Chromosome aberrations were analyzed from peripheral blood samples at various intervals between 1 day and 21 months after exposure. Aberrations were detected by painting chromosomes 2 and 8. Translocations decreased dramatically during the first 3 months after irradiation, beyond which time the frequencies remained relatively constant out to 1 year, when the effects of aging and clonal expansion became significant. Both reciprocal and nonreciprocal translocations increased with age in the unexposed control animals and were involved in clones. As expected of unstable aberrations, dicentrics decreased rapidly after exposure and reached baseline levels within 3 months. These results indicate that the persistence of translocations induced by ionizing radiation is complicated by aging and clonal expansion and that these factors must be considered when quantifying translocations at long times after exposure. These results have implications for biological dosimetry in human populations.     

Modelling of carcinogenesis and low-dose hypersensitivity: an application to lung cancer incidence among atomic bomb survivors

Lung cancer incidence among the atomic bomb survivors from Hiroshima and Nagasaki was analysed with the two-step clonal expansion (TSCE) model of carcinogenesis. For the baseline incidence, a new set of model parameters is introduced, which can be determined with a higher precision than the parameter sets previously used. The effect of temporal changes in the smoking behaviour on the lung cancer incidence is modelled by allowing initiation, inactivation and division rates of intermediate cells to depend on the year of birth. The TSCE model is further developed by implementing low-dose hypersensitivity in the survival of lung epithelial cells. According to the model fit to the data, the acute gamma exposure of the atomic bomb survivors does not only result in the conventional initiating effect, but also in a promoting effect for lung cancer. Compared to the model in which radiation acts merely on initiation, the new model is in better agreement with the age-at-exposure dependence in the data, and it does not predict an unexpected increase of the excess relative risk (ERR) at 40 years after exposure. According to the new model, the ERR at low doses increases non-linearly with dose, especially during the first 10 years after exposure to older persons.     

A Biomathematical Modeling Approach to Explain the Phenomenon of Radiation Hormesis

This study presents an improved version of a published biomathematical model, the Random Coincidence Model-Radiation Adapted (RCM-RA). That model describes how cancer mortality increases as dose rate increases in the high-dose rate range, as well as how mortality decreases as dose rate increases in the low-dose rate range. It was assumed that low-dose rates of ionizing radiation induce cellular defense mechanisms that also prevent or repair endogenous DNA damage caused by natural cell metabolism. The model presented describes the development of cancer by a phase of initiation that consists of a series of DNA lesions in the critical regions of tumor-associated genes such as proto-oncogenes or tumor-suppressor genes. Initiated cells can divide and form a clone of initiated cells. This clonal growth is called promotion and leads to premalignant cells. Premalignant clones can sustain further genomic damage that may lead to a malignant cell and ultimately a malignant tumor. The model thereby shares structural features with Moolgavkar's two-stage clonal expansion model. It was tested on published, U-shaped data of radon exposure in U.S. homes. The model correctly reflects the ratio of endogenous DNA damage to radiation-induced damage.