Density and behaviour of Whinchats Saxicola rubetra on African farmland suggest that winter habitat conditions do not limit European breeding populations

The Whinchat Saxicola rubetra is an Afro‐Palaearctic migrant undergoing widespread population decline. Whinchats winter in West Africa but there are almost no data on their habitat use and behaviour there that may help to explain the cause of this decline. We measured the density of Whinchats, the habitat characteristics associated with their occurrence on farmland, and the relationships between behavioural and habitat variation on farmland around Jos, central Nigeria, over three winters. Whinchats occurred in many fields harvested in the dry season, the density at three sites varying from 0.03 to 0.43 birds/ha, but they were absent at a fourth site. Whinchats were less likely to be found in farmland without particular crops (e.g. structural stem crops such as maize and millet), with more trees, lower amounts of short vegetation (grass, weeds, crops and crop stubble less than 10 cm in height), and higher amounts of medium vegetation (coverage of vegetation 10–100 cm in height) and litter (dead, unburned, vegetation on the ground). Whinchat abundance in areas of farmland where they were present was independent of most variables considered, but density was higher where there was more short vegetation cover. Foraging behaviour did not vary significantly between farmland habitats. All predictors were consistent between season, years and across sites. The presence/absence model was very poor at predicting presence and there were no strong predictors of abundance or foraging variation. This is consistent with a species well below carrying capacity within its environment so that many suitable areas do not have birds present and there is little aggregation at better sites. Overall, Whinchats were abundant and appeared to have plentiful habitat; densities have probably increased alongside the intensification of agriculture (presence of fallow farmland, short vegetation and structural crops). The results suggest that West African farmland in the dry season can support large numbers of Whinchats and that recent population declines in Europe are unlikely to be caused primarily by lack of suitable wintering habitat.     

Temperate migrants and resident bird species in Afro‐tropical savannahs show similar levels of ecological generalism

The specificity of an animal's habitat requirements will determine its ability to deal with anthropogenic climate and habitat change. Migratory birds are thought to be particularly vulnerable to such change, but theory predicts that they should be largely generalists. This prediction was tested with the aim of assessing whether migratory Palaearctic‐breeding birds wintering in the savannah biome of Africa are more or less generalist in their habitat use compared with taxonomically and ecologically similar Afro‐tropical resident species. The degree of specialization of these species groups to certain habitat characteristics was assessed and compared by calculating the relative occurrence of the species along habitat gradients, where wide occurrence indicates generalism and narrow occurrence indicates specialism. Palaearctic migrants as a group could not clearly be distinguished as generalists relative to Afro‐tropical residents with respect to habitat attributes. The only indication of greater flexibility in Palaearctic migrants was a significant tendency to use habitats over a wider latitudinal range. The results suggest that migrants are generalists, but not necessarily more generalist than taxonomically similar resident species that also occur over a wide range of habitat types within the savannah biome. The availability of specific habitat requirements on the wintering grounds in Africa is therefore unlikely to be a primary limiting factor for many Afro‐Palaearctic migratory bird species.     

Climate anomalies affect annual survival rates of swifts wintering in sub‐Saharan Africa

Several species of migratory swifts breed in the Western Palearctic, but they differ in reproductive traits and nonbreeding areas explored in Africa. We examined survival and recapture probabilities of two species of swifts by capture–mark–recapture data collected in northern Italy (Pallid Swift Apus pallidus in Carmagnola, Turin, and Common Swift Apus apus in Guiglia, Modena) in the breeding season (May–July). Apparent survival rates were relatively high (>71%), comparable to other studies of European swifts, but showed marked annual variations. We used geolocators to establish the exact wintering areas of birds breeding in our study colonies. Common Swifts explored the Sahel zone during migration and spent the winter in SE Africa, while the Pallid Swifts remained in the Sahel zone for a longer time, shifting locations southeast down to Cameroun and Nigeria later in winter. These movements followed the seasonal rains from north to south (October to December). In both species, we found large yearly differences in survival probabilities related to different climatic indices. In the Pallid Swift, wintering in Western Africa, the Sahel rainfall index best explained survival, with driest seasons associated with reduced survival. In the Common Swift, wintering in SE Africa, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle performed significantly better than Sahel rainfall or North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Extreme events and precipitation anomalies in Eastern Africa during La Niña events resulted in reduced survival probabilities in Common Swifts. Our study shows that the two species of swifts have similar average annual survival, but their survival varies between years and is strongly affected by different climatic drivers associated with their respective wintering areas. This finding could suggest important ecological diversification that should be taken into account when comparing survival and area use of similar species that migrate between temperate breeding areas and tropical wintering areas.     

Disentangling the effects of environmental conditions on wintering and breeding grounds on age‐specific survival rates in a trans‐Saharan migratory raptor

Migratory species are subject to environmental variability occurring on breeding and wintering grounds. Estimating the relative contribution of environmental factors experienced sequentially during breeding and wintering, and their potential interaction, to the variation of survival is crucial to predict population viability of migratory species. Here we investigated this issue for the Montagu's harrier Circus pygargus, a trans‐Saharan migrant. We analysed capture–recapture data from a 29‐year long monitoring of wing‐tagged offspring and adults at two study sites in France (Rochefort‐RO and Maine‐et‐Loire‐ML). The study period covers a climatic shift occurring in the Sahel with increasing rainfall following a period of droughts (Sahel greening). We found that harriers’ adult survival in RO (between 1988 and 2005) varied over time and was sensitive to the interaction between the amount of rainfall in the Sahel and the annual mean breeding success, two proxies of prey availability. The occurrence of adverse conditions on breeding and wintering grounds in the same year decreased survival from 0.70–0.77 to 0.48 ± 0.05. Juvenile survival in RO was slightly more sensitive to conditions in Europe than in the Sahel. Unexpectedly, lower survival rates were found in years with higher mean breeding success, suggesting compensatory density feedbacks may operate. By contrast, adult survival in ML, monitored between 1999 and 2017, was higher compared to RO (0.76 ± 0.03 versus 0.66 ± 0.02), remained constant and unaffected by any proxy of prey availability. This difference seems consistent with the fact that harriers in ML experienced better and especially less variable environmental conditions during breeding and wintering seasons compared to RO. Overall, we showed that survival of a migratory bird is sensitive to the level of variability in environmental conditions and that adverse conditions on wintering grounds can amplify the negative effects of conditions during the previous breeding season on birds’ survival.     

Spatial and temporal variation in population trends in a long‐distance migratory bird

Aim Over the past three decades, evidence has been growing that many Afro‐Palaearctic migratory bird populations have suffered sustained and severe declines. As causes of these declines exist across both the breeding and non‐breeding season, identifying potential drivers of population change is complex. In order to explore the roles of changes in regional and local environmental conditions on population change, we examine spatial and temporal variation in population trajectories of one of Europe’s most abundant Afro‐Palaearctic summer migrants, the willow warbler, Phylloscopus trochilus. Location Britain and Ireland. Methods We use national survey data from Britain and Ireland (BBS: BTO/RSPB/JNCC Breeding Bird Survey and CBS: BWI/NPWS/Heritage Council Countryside Breeding Survey) from 1994 to 2006 to model the spatial and temporal variation in willow warbler population trends. Results Across Britain and Ireland, population trends follow a gradient from sharp declines in the south and east of England to shallow declines and/or slight increases in parts of north and west England, across Scotland and Ireland. Decreasing the spatial scale of analysis reveals variation in both the rate and spatial extent of population change within central England and the majority of Scotland. The rates of population change also vary temporally; declines in the south of England are shallower now than at the start of the time series, whereas populations further north in Britain have undergone periods of increase and decline. Main conclusion These patterns suggest that regional‐scale drivers, such as changing climatic conditions, and local‐scale processes, such as habitat change, are interacting to produce spatially variable population trends. We discuss the potential mechanisms underlying these interactions and the challenges in addressing such changes at scales relevant to migratory species.     

Low and annually variable migratory connectivity in a long‐distance migrant: Whinchats Saxicola rubetra may show a bet‐hedging strategy

The spatial scale of non‐breeding areas used by long‐distance migrant animals can vary from specific, relatively small non‐breeding areas for each independent breeding population (high connectivity) to a distribution over a large non‐breeding area with mixing of breeding populations (low connectivity). Measuring variation in the degree of connectivity and how it arises is crucial to predict how migratory animals can respond to global habitat and climate change because low connectivity is likely to be an adaptation to environmental uncertainty. Here, we assess whether use of non‐breeding areas in a long‐distance migrant may be stochastic by measuring the degree of connectivity, and whether it is annually variable. Twenty‐nine wintering Whinchats tagged with geolocators over 2 years within 40 km² in central Nigeria were found to be breeding over 2.55 million km² (26% of the land area of Europe), without an asymptote being approached in the relationship between area and sample size. Ranges differed in size between years by 1.51 million km² and only 15% of the total breeding range across both years overlapped (8% overlap between years when only first‐year birds were considered), well above the range size difference and below the proportion of overlap that would be predicted from two equivalent groups breeding at random locations within the observed range. Mean distance between breeding locations (i.e. migratory spread) differed significantly between years (604 ± 18 km in 2013 and 869 ± 33 km in 2014). The results showed very low and variable connectivity that was reasonably robust to the errors and assumptions inherent in the use of geolocators, but with the caveat of having only ranges of 2 years to compare, and the sensitivity of range to the breeding locations of a small number of individuals. However, if representative, the results suggest the scope for between‐year variation (cohort effects) to determine migrant distribution on a large scale. Furthermore, for species with similarly low connectivity, we would predict breeding population trends to reflect average conditions across large non‐breeding areas: thus, as large areas of Africa become subject to habitat loss, migrant populations throughout Europe will decline.     

Equal nonbreeding period survival in adults and juveniles of a long‐distant migrant bird

In migrant birds, survival estimates for the different life‐history stages between fledging and first breeding are scarce. First‐year survival is shown to be strongly reduced compared with annual survival of adult birds. However, it remains unclear whether the main bottleneck in juvenile long‐distant migrants occurs in the postfledging period within the breeding ranges or en route. Quantifying survival rates during different life‐history stages and during different periods of the migration cycle is crucial to understand forces driving the evolution of optimal life histories in migrant birds. Here, we estimate survival rates of adult and juvenile barn swallows (Hirundo rustica L.) in the breeding and nonbreeding areas using a population model integrating survival estimates in the breeding ranges based on a large radio‐telemetry data set and published estimates of demographic parameters from large‐scale population‐monitoring projects across Switzerland. Input parameters included the country‐wide population trend, annual productivity estimates of the double‐brooded species, and year‐to‐year survival corrected for breeding dispersal. Juvenile survival in the 3‐week postfledging period was low (S = 0.32; SE = 0.05), whereas in the rest of the annual cycle survival estimates of adults and juveniles were similarly high (S > 0.957). Thus, the postfledging period was the main survival bottleneck, revealing the striking result that nonbreeding period mortality (including migration) is not higher for juveniles than for adult birds. Therefore, focusing future research on sources of variation in postfledging mortality can provide new insights into determinants of population dynamics and life‐history evolution of migrant birds.     

“Closer‐to‐home” strategy benefits juvenile survival in a long‐distance migratory bird

Human‐induced changes in the climate and environment that occur at an unprecedented speed are challenging the existence of migratory species. Faced with these new challenges, species with diverse and flexible migratory behaviors may suffer less from population decline, as they may be better at responding to these changes by altering their migratory behavior. At the individual level, variations in migratory behavior may lead to differences in fitness and subsequently influence the population's demographic dynamics. Using lifetime GPS bio‐logging data from 169 white storks (Ciconia ciconia), we explore whether the recently shortened migration distance of storks affects their survival during different stages of their juvenile life. We also explore how other variations in migratory decisions (i.e., time, destination), movement activity (measured using overall body dynamic acceleration), and early life conditions influence juvenile survival. We observed that their first autumn migration was the riskiest period for juvenile white storks. Individuals that migrated shorter distances and fledged earlier experienced lower mortality risks. In addition, higher movement activity and overwintering “closer‐to‐home” (with 84.21% of the tracked individuals stayed Europe or North Africa) were associated with higher survival. Our study shows how avian migrants can change life history decisions over only a few decades, and thus it helps us to understand and predict how migrants respond to the rapidly changing world.     

Post‐fledging survival of altricial birds: ecological determinants and adaptation

For altricial young, fledging is an abrupt step into an unknown environment. Despite increasing numbers of studies addressing the post‐fledging period, our current knowledge of the causes and consequences of post‐fledging survival remains fragmentary. Here, we review the literature on post‐fledging survival of juvenile altricial birds, addressing the following main questions: Is low post‐fledging survival a bottleneck in the altricial reproductive cycle? What is known of proximate and ultimate causal factors such as trophic relations (food and predation), habitat conditions, or abiotic factors acting in the post‐fledging period? We analyzed weekly survival estimates from 123 data series based on studies of 65 species, covering weeks 1–13 post‐fledging. As a general pattern, survival of fledglings was low during the first week post‐fledging (median rate = 0.83), and improved rapidly with time post‐fledging (week 4 median rate = 0.96). For ground‐nesting species, survival immediately after leaving nests was similar to egg‐to‐fledging survival. For species breeding above‐ground, survival during the first week post‐fledging was substantially lower than during both the nestling period and later post‐fledging stages. Thus, the early post‐fledging period is a bottleneck of markedly elevated mortality for most altricial species. Predation was the main proximate cause of mortality. Various factors such as habitat, annual and seasonal variation in the environment, and the physical condition of fledglings have been found to affect post‐fledging survival. Individual survival depended strongly on physical traits such as mass and wing length, which likely influence the ability of fledglings to escape predation. Trophic relationships at various levels are the main ultimate driver of adaptation of traits relevant to survival during the pre‐ and post‐fledging periods. Spatiotemporal dynamics of food resources determine the physical development of juveniles and, in turn, their performance after fledging. However, predators can cause quick and efficient selection for fledgling traits and adult breeding decisions. Parental strategies related to clutch size and timing of breeding, and the age and developmental stage at which young fledge have substantial effects on post‐fledging survival. The intensity and duration of post‐fledging parental investment also influences fledgling survival. Post‐fledging mortality is therefore not a random and inevitable loss. Traits and strategies related to fledging and the post‐fledging stage create large fitness differentials and, therefore, are integral, yet poorly understood, parts of the altricial reproductive strategy.     

Variations in age‐ and sex‐specific survival rates help explain population trend in a discrete marine mammal population

Understanding the drivers underlying fluctuations in the size of animal populations is central to ecology, conservation biology, and wildlife management. Reliable estimates of survival probabilities are key to population viability assessments, and patterns of variation in survival can help inferring the causal factors behind detected changes in population size. We investigated whether variation in age‐ and sex‐specific survival probabilities could help explain the increasing trend in population size detected in a small, discrete population of bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus off the east coast of Scotland. To estimate annual survival probabilities, we applied capture–recapture models to photoidentification data collected from 1989 to 2015. We used robust design models accounting for temporary emigration to estimate juvenile and adult survival, multistate models to estimate sex‐specific survival, and age models to estimate calf survival. We found strong support for an increase in juvenile/adult annual survival from 93.1% to 96.0% over the study period, most likely caused by a change in juvenile survival. Examination of sex‐specific variation showed weaker support for this trend being a result of increasing female survival, which was overall higher than for males and animals of unknown sex. Calf survival was lower in the first than second year; a bias in estimating third‐year survival will likely exist in similar studies. There was some support first‐born calf survival being lower than for calves born subsequently. Coastal marine mammal populations are subject to the impacts of environmental change, increasing anthropogenic disturbance and the effects of management measures. Survival estimates are essential to improve our understanding of population dynamics and help predict how future pressures may impact populations, but obtaining robust information on the life history of long‐lived species is challenging. Our study illustrates how knowledge of survival can be increased by applying a robust analytical framework to photoidentification data.     

Density‐dependent survival and recruitment in a long‐distance Palaearctic migrant,the Sand Martin Riparia riparia

Long‐term studies can provide powerful insights into the relative importance of different demographic and environmental factors determining avian population dynamics. Here we use 23 years of capture–mark–recapture data (1981–2003) to estimate recruitment and survival rates for a Sand Martin Riparia riparia population in Cheshire, NW England. Inter‐annual variation in recruitment and adult survival was positively related to rainfall in the sub‐Saharan wintering grounds, but unrelated to weather conditions on the breeding grounds. After allowing for the effects of African rainfall, both demographic rates were negatively density‐dependent: adult survival was related to the size of the western European Sand Martin population (probably reflecting competition for resources in the shared wintering grounds) while recruitment was related to the size of the local study population in Cheshire (potentially reflecting competition for nesting sites or food). Local population size was more sensitive to variation in adult survival than to variation in recruitment, and an increase in population size after 1995 was driven mainly by the impact of more favourable conditions in the African wintering grounds on survival rates of adults. Overwinter survival in this long‐distance Palaearctic migrant is determined partly by the amount of suitable wetland foraging habitat in the sub‐Saharan wintering grounds (which is limited by the extent of summer rainfall) and partly by the number of birds exploiting that habitat.     

Adult survival and reproductive rate are linked to habitat preference in territorial,year‐round resident Song Sparrows Melospiza melodia

Individual animal fitness can be strongly influenced by the ability to recognize habitat features which may be beneficial. Many studies focus on the effects of habitat on annual reproductive rate, even though adult survival is typically a greater influence on fitness and population growth in vertebrate species with intermediate to long lifespans. Understanding the effects of preferred habitat on individuals over the annual cycle is therefore necessary to predict its influences on individual fitness. This is particularly true in species that are resident and territorial year‐round in the temperate zone, which may face potential trade‐offs between habitat that maximizes reproduction and that which maximizes non‐breeding season (‘over‐winter’) survival. We used a 37‐year study of Song Sparrows Melospiza melodia residing territorially year‐round on a small island to examine what habitat features influenced adult over‐winter survival, how site‐specific variation in adult survival vs. annual reproductive rate influenced long‐term habitat preference, and if preferred sites on average conferred higher individual fitness. Habitat features such as area of shrub cover and exposure to intertidal coastline predicted adult over‐winter survival independent of individual age or sex, population size, or winter weather. Long‐term habitat preference (measured as occupation rate) was better predicted by site‐specific annual reproductive rate than by expected over‐winter survival, but preferred sites maximized fitness on average over the entire annual cycle,. Although adult over‐winter survival had a greater influence on population growth (λ) than did reproductive rate, the influence of reproductive rate on λ increased in preferred sites because site‐specific variation in reproductive rate was higher than variation in expected over‐winter survival. Because preferred habitats tended to have higher mean site‐specific reproductive and adult survival rates, territorial birds in this population do not appear to experience seasonal trade‐offs in preferred habitat but are predicted to incur substantial fitness costs of settling in less‐preferred sites.     

Intraspecific trait variation and trade‐offs within and across populations of a toxic dinoflagellate

Intraspecific trait diversity can promote the success of a species, as complementarity of functional traits within populations may enhance its competitive success and facilitates resilience to changing environmental conditions. Here, we experimentally determined the variation and relationships between traits in 15 strains of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium ostenfeldii derived from two populations. Measured traits included growth rate, cell size, elemental composition, nitrogen uptake kinetics, toxin production and allelochemical potency. Our results demonstrate substantial variation in all analysed traits both within and across populations, particularly in nitrogen affinity, which was even comparable to interspecific variation across phytoplankton species. We found distinct trade‐offs between maximum nitrogen uptake rate and affinity, and between defensive and competitive traits. Furthermore, we identified differences in trait variation between the genetically similar populations. The observed high trait variation may facilitate development and resilience of harmful algal blooms under dynamic environmental conditions.     

Male‐mimicking females increase male‐male interactions,and decrease male survival and condition in a female‐polymorphic damselfly

Biologists are still discovering diverse and powerful ways sexual conflicts shape biodiversity. The present study examines how the proportion of females in a population that exhibit male mimicry, a mating resistance trait, influences conspecific males’ behavior, condition, and survival. Like most female‐polymorphic damselflies, Ischnura ramburii harbors both “andromorph” females, which closely resemble males, and sexually dimorphic “gynomorph” counterparts. There is evidence that male mimicry helps andromorphs evade detection and harassment, but males can also learn to target locally prevalent morph(s) via prior mate encounters. I hypothesized that the presence of male mimics could therefore predispose males to mate recognition errors, and thereby increase rates of costly male‐male interactions. Consistent with this hypothesis, male‐male interaction rates were highest in mesocosms containing more andromorph (vs. gynomorph) females. Males in andromorph‐biased mesocosms also had lower final body mass and higher mortality than males assigned to gynomorph‐majority treatments. Male survival and body mass were each negatively affected by mesocosm density, and mortality data revealed a marginally significant interaction between andromorph frequency and population density. These findings suggest that, under sufficiently crowded conditions, female mating resistance traits such as male mimicry could have pronounced indirect effects on male behavior, condition, and survival.     

Carry‐over effects of conditions at the wintering grounds on breeding plumage signals in a migratory bird: roles of phenotypic plasticity and selection

To understand the consequences of ever‐changing environment on the dynamics of phenotypic traits, distinguishing between selection processes and individual plasticity is crucial. We examined individual consistency/plasticity in several male secondary sexual traits expressed during the breeding season (white wing and forehead patch size, UV reflectance of white wing patch and dorsal melanin coloration) in a migratory pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) population over an 11‐year period. Furthermore, we studied carry‐over effects of three environmental variables (NAO, a climatic index; NDVI, a vegetation index; and rainfall) at the wintering grounds (during prebreeding moult) on the expression of these breeding plumage traits of pied flycatcher males at individual and population levels. Whereas NAO correlates negatively with moisture in West Africa, NDVI correlates positively with primary production. Forehead patch size and melanin coloration were highly consistent within individuals among years, whereas the consistency of the other two traits was moderate. Wing patch size decreased with higher NAO and increased with higher rainfall and NDVI at the individual level. Interestingly, small‐patched males suffered lower survival during high NAO winters than large‐patched males, and vice versa during low NAO winters. These counteracting processes meant that the individual‐level change was masked at the population level where no relationship was found. Our results provide a good example of how variation in the phenotypic composition of a natural population can be a result of both environment‐dependent individual plasticity and short‐term microevolution. Moreover, when plasticity and viability selection operate simultaneously, their impacts on population composition may not be evident.     

Population dynamics of the bird cherry‐oat aphid,Rhopalosiphum padi (L.), during the autumn and winter: a modelling approach

1 A simulation model was developed to investigate the inter‐relationship of factors influencing the population dynamics of the bird cherry‐oat aphid (Rhopalosiphum padi (L.)) in barley crops during the autumn and winter. 2 The model incorporated algorithms describing alate immigration, development and survival of adults and nymphs, fecundity and morph determination in newly born nymphs. 3 The model was validated against pest outbreaks in barley fields in south‐east England. 4 It simulated accurately the size of the outbreaks with predictions of peak aphid populations within 20% of the observed in all but one case. Similarly, all but one of the year‐sowing date combination predictions of timing of peak abundance fell within 14 days of the observed. 5 A sensitivity analysis of the model highlighted the relative importance of various population processes in determining simulated aphid population dynamics; decreasing mortality rates of apterous nymphs by as little as 5% over the autumn and winter increased peak densities by as much as 60‐fold, whereas increasing daily temperatures by only 1 °C more than doubled peak aphid abundance. 6 The model identified our understanding of the mechanisms of aphid mortality as a limiting factor in the accurate prediction of R. padi outbreaks in the field.     

Influence of body mass and environmental conditions on winter mortality risk of a northern ungulate: Evidence for a late‐winter survival bottleneck

1. A relationship between winter weather and survival of northern ungulates has long been established, yet the possible roles of biological (e.g., nutritional status) and environmental (e.g., weather) conditions make it important to determine which potential limiting factors are most influential.
2. Our objective was to examine the potential effects of individual (body mass and age) and extrinsic (winter severity and snowmelt conditions) factors on the magnitude and timing of mortality for adult (>2.5 years old) female white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus [Zimmerman, 1780]) during February–May in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, USA.
3. One hundred and fifty deer were captured and monitored during 2009–2015 in two areas with varying snowfall. February–May survival ranged from 0.24 to 0.89 (mean = 0.69) across years. Mortality risk increased 1.9% with each unit increase in cumulative winter severity index, decreased 8.2% with each cumulative snow‐free day, and decreased 4.3% with each kg increase in body mass. Age and weekly snow depth did not influence weekly deer survival. Predation, primarily from coyote (Canis latrans [Say, 1823]) and wolves (Canis lupus [L., 1758]), accounted for 78% of known‐cause mortalities.
4. Our results suggest that cumulative winter severity, and possibly to a lesser degree deer condition entering winter, impacted deer winter survival. However, the timing of spring snowmelt appeared to be the most influential factor determining late‐winter mortality of deer in our study. This supports the hypothesis that nutrition and energetic demands from weather conditions are both important to northern ungulate winter ecology. Under this model, a delay of several weeks in the timing of spring snowmelt could exert a large influence on deer survival, resulting in a survival bottleneck.

     

High mortality rates in a juvenile free‐ranging marine predator and links to dive and forage ability

1. High juvenile mortality rates are typical of many long‐lived marine vertebrate predators. Insufficient development in dive and forage ability is considered a key driver of this. However, direct links to survival outcome are sparse, particularly in free‐ranging marine animals that may not return to land.
2. In this study, we conduct exploratory investigations toward early mortality in juvenile southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina. Twenty postweaning pups were equipped with (a) a new‐generation satellite relay data tag, capable of remotely transmitting fine‐scale behavioral movements from accelerometers, and (b) a location transmitting only tag (so that mortality events could be distinguished from device failures). Individuals were followed during their first trip at sea (until mortality or return to land). Two analyses were conducted. First, the behavioral movements and encountered environmental conditions of nonsurviving pups were individually compared to temporally concurrent observations from grouped survivors. Second, common causes of mortality were investigated using Cox's proportional hazard regression and penalized shrinkage techniques.
3. Nine individuals died (two females and seven males) and 11 survived (eight females and three males). All but one individual died before the return phase of their first trip at sea, and all but one were negatively buoyant. Causes of death were variable, although common factors included increased horizontal travel speeds and distances, decreased development in dive and forage ability, and habitat type visited (lower sea surface temperatures and decreased total [eddy] kinetic energy).
4. For long‐lived marine vertebrate predators, such as the southern elephant seal, the first few months of life following independence represent a critical period, when small deviations in behavior from the norm appear sufficient to increase mortality risk. Survival rates may subsequently be particularly vulnerable to changes in climate and environment, which will have concomitant consequences on the demography and dynamics of populations.

     

Individual heterogeneity in reproductive rates and cost of reproduction in a long‐lived vertebrate

Individual variation in reproductive success is a key feature of evolution, but also has important implications for predicting population responses to variable environments. Although such individual variation in reproductive outcomes has been reported in numerous studies, most analyses to date have not considered whether these realized differences were due to latent individual heterogeneity in reproduction or merely random chance causing different outcomes among like individuals. Furthermore, latent heterogeneity in fitness components might be expressed differently in contrasted environmental conditions, an issue that has only rarely been investigated. Here, we assessed (i) the potential existence of latent individual heterogeneity and (ii) the nature of its expression (fixed vs. variable) in a population of female Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii), using a hierarchical modeling approach on a 30‐year mark–recapture data set consisting of 954 individual encounter histories. We found strong support for the existence of latent individual heterogeneity in the population, with “robust” individuals expected to produce twice as many pups as “frail” individuals. Moreover, the expression of individual heterogeneity appeared consistent, with only mild evidence that it might be amplified when environmental conditions are severe. Finally, the explicit modeling of individual heterogeneity allowed us to detect a substantial cost of reproduction that was not evidenced when the heterogeneity was ignored.     

Mark‐recapture modeling accounting for state uncertainty provides concurrent estimates of survival and fecundity in a protected harbor seal population

Harbor seal breeding behavior and habitats constrain opportunities for individual‐based studies, and no current estimates of both survival and fecundity exist for any of the populations studied worldwide. As a result, the drivers underlying the variable trends in abundance exhibited by harbor seal populations around the world remain uncertain. We developed an individual‐based study of harbor seals in northeast Scotland, whereby data were collected during daily photo‐identification surveys throughout the pupping seasons between 2006 and 2011. However, a consequence of observing seals remotely meant that information on sex, maturity‐stage, or breeding status was not always available. To provide unbiased estimates of survival rates we conditioned initial release of individuals on the first time sex was known to estimate sex‐specific survival rates, while a robust design multistate model accounting for uncertainty in breeding status was used to estimate reproductive rate of multiparous and ≥3‐yr‐old females. Survival rates were estimated at 0.95 (95% CI = 0.91–0.97) for females and 0.92 (0.83–0.96) for males, while reproductive rate was estimated at 0.89 (0.75–0.95) for multiparous and 0.69 (0.64–0.74) for ≥3‐yr‐old females. Stage‐based population modeling indicated that this population should be recovering, even under the current shooting quotas implemented by the recent management plan.