Projected status of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) in the twenty-first century

Extensive and rapid losses of sea ice in the Arctic have raised conservation concerns for the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens), a large pinniped inhabiting arctic and subarctic continental shelf waters of the Chukchi and Bering seas. We developed a Bayesian network model to integrate potential effects of changing environmental conditions and anthropogenic stressors on the future status of the Pacific walrus population at four periods through the twenty-first century. The model framework allowed for inclusion of various sources and levels of knowledge, and representation of structural and parameter uncertainties. Walrus outcome probabilities through the century reflected a clear trend of worsening conditions for the subspecies. From the current observation period to the end of century, the greatest change in walrus outcome probabilities was a progressive decrease in the outcome state of robust and a concomitant increase in the outcome state of vulnerable. The probabilities of rare and extirpated states each progressively increased but remained <10% through the end of the century. The summed probabilities of vulnerable, rare, and extirpated (P(v,r,e)) increased from a current level of 10% in 2004 to 22% by 2050 and 40% by 2095. The degree of uncertainty in walrus outcomes increased monotonically over future periods. In the model, sea ice habitat (particularly for summer/fall) and harvest levels had the greatest influence on future population outcomes. Other potential stressors had much smaller influences on walrus outcomes, mostly because of uncertainty in their future states and our current poor understanding of their mechanistic influence on walrus abundance.     

Demography of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens): 1974–2006

Global climate change may fundamentally alter population dynamics of many species for which baseline population parameter estimates are imprecise or lacking. Historically, the Pacific walrus is thought to have been limited by harvest, but it may become limited by global warming‐induced reductions in sea ice. Loss of sea ice, on which walruses rest between foraging bouts, may reduce access to food, thus lowering vital rates. Rigorous walrus survival rate estimates do not exist, and other population parameter estimates are out of date or have well‐documented bias and imprecision. To provide useful population parameter estimates we developed a Bayesian, hidden process demographic model of walrus population dynamics from 1974 through 2006 that combined annual age‐specific harvest estimates with five population size estimates, six standing age structure estimates, and two reproductive rate estimates. Median density independent natural survival was high for juveniles (0.97) and adults (0.99), and annual density dependent vital rates rose from 0.06 to 0.11 for reproduction, 0.31 to 0.59 for survival of neonatal calves, and 0.39 to 0.85 for survival of older calves, concomitant with a population decline. This integrated population model provides a baseline for estimating changing population dynamics resulting from changing harvests or sea ice.     

Anthropogenic causes of the western Steller sea lion Eumetopias jubatus population decline and their threat to recovery

• 1 The western Steller sea lion Eumetopias jubatus population has experienced a chronic decline since the 1960s. The causes are likely multifactorial and a combination of anthropogenic and natural factors. A draft revised recovery plan for the Steller sea lion has been published by the US National Marine Fisheries Service, listing both anthropogenic and natural factors that may have contributed to the observed decline or which may be a threat to the recovery of the western Steller sea lion population. The purpose of this review is to consider the anthropogenic threats to this stock.
• 2 Anthropogenic sources of mortality include fisheries competition resulting in nutritional stress, mortality incidental to commercial fisheries (i.e. fisheries by‐catch), subsistence hunts, legal and illegal shooting, commercial hunts, anthropogenic‐related contamination, and research‐induced mortalities.
• 3 We present evidence that the following anthropogenic factors likely contributed to the decline of the western Steller sea lion population over the last 40 years: (i) mortality incidental to commercial fisheries (i.e. by‐catch); (ii) commercial hunting of western Steller sea lions; and (iii) legal and illegal shooting; whereas the subsistence hunts for western Steller sea lions and mortality incidental to research were not likely to be contributors to the observed decline.
• 4 Further, we present evidence that the following can be excluded as significant anthropogenic threats to the recovery of the western Steller sea lion population: (i) mortality incidental to commercial fishing; (ii) legal and illegal shooting; (iii) commercial hunts of Steller sea lions; (iv) subsistence hunting; and (v) mortality incidental to research.
• 5 Competition with fisheries resulting in nutritional stress, and the potential impacts of contaminants, are two anthropogenic factors that should continue to be a priority for the various organizations currently doing research on this population.

     

Pacific walrus: Benthic bioturbator of Beringia

The dependency of walruses on sea ice as habitat, the extent of their feeding, their benthic bioturbation and consequent nutrient flux suggest that walruses play a major ecological role in Beringia. This suggestion is supported by several lines of evidence, accumulated during more than three decades of enquiry and leading to the hypothesis that positive feedbacks of walrus feeding strongly influence productivity and ecological function via benthic bioturbation and nutrient flux. Walruses annually consume an estimated 3 million metric tons of benthic biomass. Walrus prey species inhabit patches across the shelf according to sediment type and structure. Side-scan sonar and our calculations indicate that the area affected by walrus feeding is in the order of thousands of square kilometers per year. Annual to long-term walrus bioturbation results in significant, large-scale changes in sediment and biological-community structure, and magnifies nutrient flux from sediment pore water to the water column by about two orders of magnitude over wide areas. The combined effects of walrus feeding must be placed in the context of long-term, regional climate changes and responses. Should sea ice continue to move northward as a result of climate change, the walrus' ecological role could be diminished or lost, the benthic ecosystem could be fundamentally altered and native subsistence hunters would be deprived of important resources.     

Future sea ice conditions in Western Hudson Bay and consequences for polar bears in the 21st century

The primary habitat of polar bears is sea ice, but in Western Hudson Bay (WH), the seasonal ice cycle forces polar bears ashore each summer. Survival of bears on land in WH is correlated with breakup and the ice‐free season length, and studies suggest that exceeding thresholds in these variables will lead to large declines in the WH population. To estimate when anthropogenic warming may have progressed sufficiently to threaten the persistence of polar bears in WH, we predict changes in the ice cycle and the sea ice concentration (SIC) in spring (the primary feeding period of polar bears) with a high‐resolution sea ice‐ocean model and warming forced with 21st century IPCC greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios: B1 (low), A1B (medium), and A2 (high). We define critical years for polar bears based on proposed thresholds in breakup and ice‐free season and we assess when ice‐cycle conditions cross these thresholds. In the three scenarios, critical years occur more commonly after 2050. From 2001 to 2050, 2 critical years occur under B1 and A2, and 4 under A1B; from 2051 to 2100, 8 critical years occur under B1, 35 under A1B and 41 under A2. Spring SIC in WH is high (>90%) in all three scenarios between 2001 and 2050, but declines rapidly after 2050 in A1B and A2. From 2090 to 2100, the mean spring SIC is 84 (±7)% in B1, 56 (±26)% in A1B and 20 (±13)% in A2. Our predictions suggest that the habitat of polar bears in WH will deteriorate in the 21st century. Ice predictions in A1B and A2 suggest that the polar bear population may struggle to persist after ca. 2050. Predictions under B1 suggest that reducing GHG emissions could allow polar bears to persist in WH throughout the 21st century.     

Atlantic walrus signal latitudinal differences in the long-term decline of sea ice-derived carbon to benthic fauna in the Canadian Arctic

Climate change is altering the biogeochemical and physical characteristics of the Arctic marine environment, which impacts sea ice algal and phytoplankton bloom dynamics and the vertical transport of these carbon sources to benthic communities. Little is known about whether the contribution of sea ice-derived carbon to benthic fauna and nitrogen cycling has changed over multiple decades in concert with receding sea ice. We combined compound-specific stable isotope analysis of amino acids with highly branched isoprenoid diatom lipid biomarkers using archived (1982–2016) tissue of benthivorous Atlantic walrus to examine temporal trends of sea ice-derived carbon, nitrogen isotope baseline and trophic position of Atlantic walrus at high- and mid-latitudes in the Canadian Arctic. Associated with an 18% sea ice decline in the mid-Arctic, sea ice-derived carbon contribution to Atlantic walrus decreased by 75% suggesting a strong decoupling of sea ice-benthic habitats. By contrast, a nearly exclusive amount of sea ice-derived carbon was maintained in high-Arctic Atlantic walrus (98% in 1996 and 89% in 2006) despite a similar percentage in sea ice reduction. Nitrogen isotope baseline or the trophic position of Atlantic walrus did not change over time at either location. These findings indicate latitudinal differences in the restructuring of carbon energy sources used by Atlantic walrus and their benthic prey, and in turn a change in Arctic marine ecosystem functioning between sea ice–pelagic–benthic habitats.     

Effect of climatic warming on the Pacific walrus, and potential modification of its helminth fauna

The decreasing extent of sea-ice in the arctic basin as a consequence of climatic warming is modifying the behavior and diets of pagophilic pinnipeds, including the Pacific walrus, Odobenus rosmarus divergens Illiger, the species emphasized here. Mammals such as the walrus and bearded seal, Erignathus barbatus (Erxleben), cannot remain associated with the sea-ice, and continue to feed on their usual diet of benthic invertebrates inhabiting coastal waters to a depth of approximately 100 m, when the northwestward retreating ice reaches deep waters beyond the margins of the continental shelf. With reduction of their customary substrate (ice), the walrus has become more pelagic and preys more often on ringed seals, Phoca hispida Schreber. Dietary changes, with modifications of helminth faunas, may be induced by various factors. Increased consumption of mammals or their remains by walruses may lead to a higher prevalence of trichinellosis in them and to more frequent occurrence in indigenous peoples inhabiting the arctic coasts. To assess predicted effects on the composition of helminth fauna of the walrus, we recommend systematic surveys of their helminths as part of research on effects of climatic warming.     

Pacific Walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) Resource Selection in the Northern Bering Sea

The Pacific walrus is a large benthivore with an annual range extending across the continental shelves of the Bering and Chukchi Seas. We used a discrete choice model to estimate site selection by adult radio-tagged walruses relative to the availability of the caloric biomass of benthic infauna and sea ice concentration in a prominent walrus wintering area in the northern Bering Sea (St. Lawrence Island polynya) in 2006, 2008, and 2009. At least 60% of the total caloric biomass of dominant macroinfauna in the study area was composed of members of the bivalve families Nuculidae, Tellinidae, and Nuculanidae. Model estimates indicated walrus site selection was related most strongly to tellinid bivalve caloric biomass distribution and that walruses selected lower ice concentrations from the mostly high ice concentrations that were available to them (quartiles: 76%, 93%, and 99%). Areas with high average predicted walrus site selection generally coincided with areas of high organic carbon input identified in other studies. Projected decreases in sea ice in the St. Lawrence Island polynya and the potential for a concomitant decline of bivalves in the region could result in a northward shift in the wintering grounds of walruses in the northern Bering Sea.     

Evidence for a pan-Arctic sea-ice diatom diet in Strongylocentrotus spp

The Arctic marine food web is based on organic matter produced by both phytoplankton and sea-ice algae. With the decline of Arctic sea ice, the sustained availability of organic carbon of sea-ice origin is unclear. Recently, the detection of the sea-ice diatom biomarker IP₂₅ in a range of Arctic benthic macrofauna indicated that this is a highly suitable biomarker for the identification of organic carbon derived from sea-ice primary production in Arctic food webs. However, the data presented previously were restricted to a single geographical region in the Canadian Arctic. Here, we show that IP₂₅ is present in sea urchins of the genus Strongylocentrotus collected from ten locations with seasonal sea-ice cover from the Canadian Archipelago, Greenland and Spitsbergen. In contrast, IP₂₅ was not found in specimens of Echinus esculentus collected from the southwest UK, where sea ice is absent. Our findings provide evidence that the presence of IP₂₅ in macrobenthic organisms can be used across different Arctic regions as a versatile indicator of a diet containing carbon of sea-ice origin.     

Regional walrus abundance estimate in the United States Chukchi Sea in autumn

Human activities (e.g., shipping, tourism, oil, gas development) have increased in the Chukchi Sea because of declining sea ice. The declining sea ice itself and these activities may affect Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) abundance; however, previous walrus abundance estimates have been notably imprecise. When sea ice is absent from the eastern Chukchi Sea, walruses in waters of the United States usually rest together onshore at a single Alaska coastal haulout, where they can be surveyed more easily than when they rest on dispersed offshore ice floes. We estimated the number of walruses on land (herd size) at this haulout from 13 unoccupied aircraft system (UAS) surveys flown within a 10-day period in each of 2018 and 2019. We estimated population size of walruses using the haulout over the course of the surveys by combining herd size data with data from satellite-linked transmitters that indicated whether tagged walruses were in or out of water during each survey. Our estimates of the population size of walruses using the haulout during each year's survey period were similar to each other and more precise than historical walrus abundance estimates: posterior means (95% credibility intervals) were 166,000 (133,000–201,000) for 2018 and 189,000 (135,000–251,000) for 2019. Auxiliary observations support using these estimates to represent the size of the population using the eastern Chukchi Sea in autumn during the surveyed years. Our study site was the only substantial Chukchi Sea coastal haulout in the United States during the survey periods and study-specific tracking data (consistent with known distribution and movement patterns) indicated tagged walruses remained in eastern Chukchi waters during the survey periods. In addition, the imagery, telemetry, and analytical methods developed for this study advance the prospect for precise range-wide walrus population size estimates.     

Effects of changing sea ice on marine mammals and subsistence hunters in northern Alaska from traditional knowledge interviews

Marine mammals are important sources of food for indigenous residents of northern Alaska. Changing sea ice patterns affect the animals themselves as well as access to them by hunters. Documenting the traditional knowledge of Iñupiaq and Yupik hunters concerning marine mammals and sea ice makes accessible a wide range of information relevant to understanding the ecosystem to which humans belong. We interviewed hunters in 11 coastal villages from the northern Bering Sea to the Beaufort Sea. Hunters reported extensive changes in sea ice and weather that have affected the timing of marine mammal migrations, their distribution and behaviour and the efficacy of certain hunting methods. Amidst these changes, however, hunters cited offsetting technological benefits, such as more powerful and fuel-efficient outboard engines. Other concerns included potential impacts to subsistence hunting from industrial activity such as shipping and oil and gas development. While hunters have been able to adjust to some changes, continued environmental changes and increased disturbance from human activity may further challenge their ability to acquire food in the future. There are indications, however, that innovation and flexibility provide sources of resilience.     

‘Arctic Crashes:’ Revisiting the Human-Animal Disequilibrium Model in a Time of Rapid Change

The paper introduces a new vision advanced by the recent project, Arctic People and Animal Crashes: Human, Climate and Habitat Agency in the Anthropocene (2014–2015) developed at the Smithsonian Institution. Unlike earlier top-down models of polar animal-climate-people connections that tied changes in Arctic species’ abundance and ranges to alternating warmer and cooler temperatures or high ice/low sea-ice regimes, rapid animal declines (‘crashes’) may be better approached at regional and local scales. This approach is close to Arctic peoples’ traditional vision that animals, like people, live in ‘tribes’ and that they ‘come and go’ according to their relations with the local human societies. As the Arctic changes rapidly and climate/sea-ice/ecotone boundaries shift, we see diverse responses by Arctic people and animals to environmental stressors. I examine recent data on the status of three northern mammal species – caribou/reindeer, Pacific walrus, and polar bear—during two decades of the ongoing Arctic warming. The emerging record may be best approached as a series of local human-animal disequilibria interpreted from different angles by population biologists, indigenous peoples, and anthropologists, rather than a top-down climate-induced ‘crash.’ Such new understanding implies the varying speed of change in the physical, animal, and human domains, which was not factored in the earlier models of climate–animal–people’s interactions.     

Response to Dyck et al. (2007) on polar bears and climate change in western Hudson Bay

The “viewpoint” article by Dyck et al. (2007) [Dyck. M.G., Soon, W., Baydack, R.K., Legates, D.R., Baliunas, S., Ball, T.F., Hancock, L.O., 2007. Polar bears of western Hudson Bay and climate change: are warming spring air temperatures the “ultimate” survival control factor? Ecol. Complexity 4, 73–84. doi:10.1016/j.ecocom.2007.03.002.] suggest that factors other than climate warming are responsible for a decline in the polar bear population of Western Hudson Bay. They propose: (1) that there is no evidence that the climate has warmed significantly in western Hudson Bay, (2) that any negative effects on the polar bear population likely result from interactions with humans (such as research activities, management actions, or tourism), (3) that studies suggesting climate warming could influence polar bear populations are confounded by natural fluctuations and (4) that polar bears will adapt to climate warming by eating vegetation, hunting other marine mammal species, and evolving new physiological mechanisms. In our examination of their alternative explanations, and the data available to evaluate each, we found little support for any.Research conducted since 1997 (when the last data were collected for the analyses in Stirling et al., 1999 [Stirling, I., Lunn, N.J., Iacozza, J., 1999. Long-term trends in the population ecology of polar bears in western Hudson Bay in relation to climate change. Arctic 52, 294–306.]) continues to be consistent with the thesis that climate warming in western Hudson Bay is the major factor causing the sea ice to breakup at progressively earlier dates, resulting in polar bears coming ashore to fast for several months in progressively poorer condition, resulting in negative affects on survival of young, subadult, and older (but not prime) adults and reproduction. When the population began to decline, the hunting quota for Inuit in Nunavut was no longer sustainable, which in turn probably resulted in the decline accelerating over time as a result of overharvesting (Regehr et al., 2007 [Regehr, E.V., Lunn, N.J., Amstrup, S.C., Stirling, I., 2007. Survival and population size of polar bears in western Hudson Bay in relation to earlier sea ice breakup. J. Wildl. Manage. 71, 2673–2683.]).     

A tale of two polar bear populations: ice habitat, harvest, and body condition

One of the primary mechanisms by which sea ice loss is expected to affect polar bears is via reduced body condition and growth resulting from reduced access to prey. To date, negative effects of sea ice loss have been documented for two of 19 recognized populations. Effects of sea ice loss on other polar bear populations that differ in harvest rate, population density, and/or feeding ecology have been assumed, but empirical support, especially quantitative data on population size, demography, and/or body condition spanning two or more decades, have been lacking. We examined trends in body condition metrics of captured bears and relationships with summertime ice concentration between 1977 and 2010 for the Baffin Bay (BB) and Davis Strait (DS) polar bear populations. Polar bears in these regions occupy areas with annual sea ice that has decreased markedly starting in the 1990s. Despite differences in harvest rate, population density, sea ice concentration, and prey base, polar bears in both populations exhibited positive relationships between body condition and summertime sea ice cover during the recent period of sea ice decline. Furthermore, females and cubs exhibited relationships with sea ice that were not apparent during the earlier period (1977–1990s) when sea ice loss did not occur. We suggest that declining body condition in BB may be a result of recent declines in sea ice habitat. In DS, high population density and/or sea ice loss, may be responsible for the declines in body condition.     

Increased Land Use by Chukchi Sea Polar Bears in Relation to Changing Sea Ice Conditions

Recent observations suggest that polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are increasingly using land habitats in some parts of their range, where they have minimal access to their preferred prey, likely in response to loss of their sea ice habitat associated with climatic warming. We used location data from female polar bears fit with satellite radio collars to compare land use patterns in the Chukchi Sea between two periods (1986–1995 and 2008–2013) when substantial summer sea-ice loss occurred. In both time periods, polar bears predominantly occupied sea-ice, although land was used during the summer sea-ice retreat and during the winter for maternal denning. However, the proportion of bears on land for > 7 days between August and October increased between the two periods from 20.0% to 38.9%, and the average duration on land increased by 30 days. The majority of bears that used land in the summer and for denning came to Wrangel and Herald Islands (Russia), highlighting the importance of these northernmost land habitats to Chukchi Sea polar bears. Where bears summered and denned, and how long they spent there, was related to the timing and duration of sea ice retreat. Our results are consistent with other studies supporting increased land use as a common response of polar bears to sea-ice loss. Implications of increased land use for Chukchi Sea polar bears are unclear, because a recent study observed no change in body condition or reproductive indices between the two periods considered here. This result suggests that the ecology of this region may provide a degree of resilience to sea ice loss. However, projections of continued sea ice loss suggest that polar bears in the Chukchi Sea and other parts of the Arctic may increasingly use land habitats in the future, which has the potential to increase nutritional stress and human-polar bear interactions.     

Effects of climate change on an emperor penguin population: analysis of coupled demographic and climate models

Sea ice conditions in the Antarctic affect the life cycle of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). We present a population projection for the emperor penguin population of Terre Adélie, Antarctica, by linking demographic models (stage‐structured, seasonal, nonlinear, two‐sex matrix population models) to sea ice forecasts from an ensemble of IPCC climate models. Based on maximum likelihood capture‐mark‐recapture analysis, we find that seasonal sea ice concentration anomalies (SIC_a) affect adult survival and breeding success. Demographic models show that both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates are maximized at intermediate values of annual SIC_a, because neither the complete absence of sea ice, nor heavy and persistent sea ice, would provide satisfactory conditions for the emperor penguin. We show that under some conditions the stochastic growth rate is positively affected by the variance in SIC_a. We identify an ensemble of five general circulation climate models whose output closely matches the historical record of sea ice concentration in Terre Adélie. The output of this ensemble is used to produce stochastic forecasts of SIC_a, which in turn drive the population model. Uncertainty is included by incorporating multiple climate models and by a parametric bootstrap procedure that includes parameter uncertainty due to both model selection and estimation error. The median of these simulations predicts a decline of the Terre Adélie emperor penguin population of 81% by the year 2100. We find a 43% chance of an even greater decline, of 90% or more. The uncertainty in population projections reflects large differences among climate models in their forecasts of future sea ice conditions. One such model predicts population increases over much of the century, but overall, the ensemble of models predicts that population declines are far more likely than population increases. We conclude that climate change is a significant risk for the emperor penguin. Our analytical approach, in which demographic models are linked to IPCC climate models, is powerful and generally applicable to other species and systems.     

Long-term increases in young-of-the-year growth of Arctic cisco Coregonus autumnalis and environmental influences

Arctic cisco Coregonus autumnalis young-of-year (YOY) growth was used as a proxy to examine the long-term response of a high-latitude fish population to changing climate from 1978 to 2004. YOY growth increased over time (r2 = 0·29) and was correlated with monthly averages of the Arctic oscillation index, air temperature, east wind speed, sea-ice concentration and river discharge with and without time lags. Overall, the most prevalent correlates to YOY growth were sea-ice concentration lagged 1 year (significant correlations in 7 months; r2 = 0·14-0·31) and Mackenzie River discharge lagged 2 years (significant correlations in 8 months; r2 = 0·13-0·50). The results suggest that decreased sea-ice concentrations and increased river discharge fuel primary production and that life cycles of prey species linking increased primary production to fish growth are responsible for the time lag. Oceanographic studies also suggest that sea ice concentration and fluvial inputs from the Mackenzie River are key factors influencing productivity in the Beaufort Sea. Future research should assess the possible mechanism relating sea ice concentration and river discharge to productivity at upper trophic levels.     

Spatial variation and low diversity in the major histocompatibility complex in walrus (Odobenus rosmarus)

Increased global temperature and associated changes to Arctic habitats will likely result in the northward advance of species, including an influx of pathogens novel to the Arctic. How species respond to these immunological challenges will depend in part on the adaptive potential of their immune response system. We compared levels of genetic diversity at a gene associated with adaptive immune response [Class II major histocompatibility complex (MHC), DQB exon 2] between populations of walrus (Odobenus rosmarus), a sea ice-dependent Arctic species. Walrus was represented by only five MHC DQB alleles, with frequency differences observed between Pacific and Atlantic populations. MHC DQB alleles appear to be under balancing selection, and most (80 %; n = 4/5) of the alleles were observed in walruses from both oceans, suggesting broad scale differences in the frequency of exposure and diversity of pathogens may be influencing levels of heterozygosity at DQB in walruses. Limited genetic diversity at MHC, however, suggests that walrus may have a reduced capacity to respond to novel immunological challenges associated with shifts in ecological communities and environmental stressors predicted for changing climates. This is particularly pertinent for walrus, since reductions in summer sea ice may facilitate both northward expansion of marine species and associated pathogens from more temperate regions, and exchange of marine mammals and associated pathogens through the recently opened Northwest Passage between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans in the Canadian high Arctic.     

Maritime adaptations and dietary variation in prehistoric Western Alaska: Stable isotope analysis of permafrost‐preserved human hair

The reconstruction of diet and subsistence strategies is integral in understanding early human colonizations and cultural adaptations, especially in the Arctic—one of the last areas of North America to be permanently inhabited. However, evidence for early subsistence practices in Western Alaska varies, particularly with regards to the emergence, importance, and intensity of sea mammal hunting. Here, we present stable carbon and nitrogen isotope data from permafrost‐preserved human hair from two new prehistoric sites in Western Alaska, providing a direct measure of diet. The isotope evidence indicates a heavy reliance on sea mammal protein among the earlier Norton‐period group (1,750 ± 40 cal BP), confirming that the complex hunting technologies required to intensively exploit these animals were most likely already in place in this region by at least the beginning of 1st millennium AD. In contrast, analysis of the more recent Thule‐period hair samples (650 ± 40 cal BP; 570 ± 30 cal BP) reveals a more mixed diet, including terrestrial animal protein. Sequential isotope analysis of two longer human hair locks indicates seasonal differences in diet in a single Norton‐period individual but demonstrates little dietary variation in a Thule‐period individual. These analyses provide direct evidence for dietary differences among Alaska's early Eskimo groups and confirm the antiquity of specialized sea mammal hunting and procurement technologies. The results of this study have implications for our understanding of human adaptation to maritime and high‐latitude environments, and the geographical and temporal complexity in early Arctic subsistence. Am J Phys Anthropol 151:448–461, 2013.© 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Polar bears in a warming climate

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) live throughout the ice-coveredwaters of the circumpolar Arctic, particularly in near shoreannual ice over the continental shelf where biological productivityis highest. However, to a large degree under scenarios predictedby climate change models, these preferred sea ice habitats willbe substantially altered. Spatial and temporal sea ice changeswill lead to shifts in trophic interactions involving polarbears through reduced availability and abundance of their mainprey: seals. In the short term, climatic warming may improvebear and seal habitats in higher latitudes over continentalshelves if currently thick multiyear ice is replaced by annualice with more leads, making it more suitable for seals. A cascadeof impacts beginning with reduced sea ice will be manifestedin reduced adipose stores leading to lowered reproductive ratesbecause females will have less fat to invest in cubs duringthe winter fast. Non-pregnant bears may have to fast on landor offshore on the remaining multiyear ice through progressivelylonger periods of open water while they await freeze-up anda return to hunting seals. As sea ice thins, and becomes morefractured and labile, it is likely to move more in responseto winds and currents so that polar bears will need to walkor swim more and thus use greater amounts of energy to maintaincontact with the remaining preferred habitats. The effects ofclimate change are likely to show large geographic, temporaland even individual differences and be highly variable, makingit difficult to develop adequate monitoring and research programs.All ursids show behavioural plasticity but given the rapid paceof ecological change in the Arctic, the long generation time,and the highly specialised nature of polar bears, it is unlikelythat polar bears will survive as a species if the sea ice disappearscompletely as has been predicted by some.