From a sewer into a living river: the Rhine between Sandoz and Salmon

After presenting some key data about the River Rhine, the main problems, tasks and the structure of the International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ICPR) as an intergovernmental organization are explained. Right up to the 1970–1980s, the river was so heavily polluted with wastewater that it was generally called the sewer of Europe (ICPR, A Programme for Migratory Fish in the Rhine System 2004, Kobl enz, 2004). Some milestones—disasters and resulting programmes—in the history of the ICPR are shown, following the main topics of the ICPR work: water quality, ecology, flood protection and climate change. The main outcomes of the programmes are presented and linked with European Directives. It is shown how the achievements of the Rhine Commission have triggered the development of directives at European level, such as the Water Framework Directive (2000) and the Directive on Flood Assessment and Management (2007). Finally, positive and negative experience is reconsidered and factors for a successful transboundary river basin management are pointed out against the background that other river basin co-operations starting their work today could share the lessons learnt by the ICPR.     

EM Estimation of Diagnosis

The diagnosis/prognosis problem has already been introduced by the authors in previous papers as a classification problem for survival data. In this paper, the specific aspects of the estimation of the survival functions in diagnostic classes and the evaluation of the posterior probabilities of the diagnostic classes are addressed; a latent random variable Z is defined to denote the classification of censored and uncensored individuals, where early censored individuals cannot be immediately classified as Z is not observed. Parameter estimation of the mixture survival model thus derived is carried out using a proper version of the EM algorithm with given prior probabilities on Z and diagnostic/prognostic information provided by the observable covariates is also included into the model. Numerical examples using AIDS data and a simulation study are used to better outline the main features of the model and of the estimation methodology.     

Class discovery and classification of tumor samples using mixture modeling of gene expression data--a unified approach

MOTIVATION: The DNA microarray technology has been increasingly used in cancer research. In the literature, discovery of putative classes and classification to known classes based on gene expression data have been largely treated as separate problems. This paper offers a unified approach to class discovery and classification, which we believe is more appropriate, and has greater applicability, in practical situations. RESULTS: We model the gene expression profile of a tumor sample as from a finite mixture distribution, with each component characterizing the gene expression levels in a class. The proposed method was applied to a leukemia dataset, and good results are obtained. With appropriate choices of genes and preprocessing method, the number of leukemia types and subtypes is correctly inferred, and all the tumor samples are correctly classified into their respective type/subtype. Further evaluation of the method was carried out on other variants of the leukemia data and a colon dataset.     

高黎贡山北段植物群落TWINSPAN 数量分类研究

采用TWINSPAN 数量分类方法对高黎贡山北段植物群落进行研究, 将研究区68 个样地归并为18 个聚组, 并参照《云南植被》和《中国植被》的分类原则和系统将研究区植物群落划归为6 个植被型、7 个植被亚型、7 个群系组、10 个群系和18 个群落; TWINSPAN 数量分类反映了群落分布随海拔和干扰变化的规律。     

Implementation of a hierarchical global vegetation classification in ecosystem function models

Abstract. We propose an alternative approach for the currently used biogeographic global vegetation classifications. A hierarchical vegetation classification system is proposed for consistent and routine monitoring of global vegetation. Global vegetation is first defined into six classes based on plant canopy structure and dynamics observable by remote sensing from satellites. Additional biome variability is then represented through a remote sensing derived leaf area index map, and direct climate data sets driving an ecosystem model to compute and map net primary production and evapotranspiration. Simulation results from an ecosystem function model suggest that the six canopy structure-based classes are sufficient to represent global variability in these parameters, provided the spatio-temporal variations in Leaf Area Index and climate are characterized accurately. If a bioclimatically based classification is needed for other purposes, our six class approach can be expanded to a possible 21 classes using archived climatic zones. For example, tropical, subtropical, temperate and boreal labels are defined by absolute minimum temperature. Further separation in each class is possible through changes in water availability defined by precipitation and/or soils. The resulting vegetation classes correspond to many of the existing, conventional global vegetation schemes, yet retain the measure of actual vegetation possible because remote sensing first defines the six biome classes in our classification. Vegetation classifications are no longer an end product but a source of initializing data for global ecosystem function models. Remote sensing with biosphere models directly calculates the ecological functions previously inferred from vegetation classifications, but with higher spatial and temporal accuracy.     

高黎贡山北段植物群落TWINSPAN数量分类研究

采用TWINSPAN数量分类方法对高黎贡山北段植物群落进行研究,将研究区68个样地归并为18个聚组,并参照《云南植被》和《中国植被》的分类原则和系统将研究区植物群落划归为6个植被型、7个植被亚型、7个群系组、10个群系和18个群落;TWINSPAN数量分类反映了群落分布随海拔和干扰变化的规律。     

Buried Pleistocene human remains of Weissenthurm, Mayen-Koblenz district: new and old information]

The landscape at central Rhine and Mosel is one of the most famous archaeological sites in middle Europe. A layer of pumicetufa from the eruption of the lake Laacher volcano 13,000 years B.P. is an important mark which approximately divides the Palaeolithic and Mesolithic period. Although numerous excavations in this area have been carried out, quaternary hominid remains are quite rare. A few short notes from the early 1920s reports of human bones "below the pumice, in Weissenthurm, District Mayen-Koblenz, Rhineland-Palatinate". However, these remains were probably destroyed in the Second World War in Munich on April 25, 1944. Recently, some new information has appeared on the discovery and the whereabouts of these fragments. The chronological classification of the Weissenthurm-hominid into the Pleistocene based on this information remains uncertain.     

Water quality research in the area of the river Kromme Rijn

Summary From 1974 till 1977 research was carried out in the Kromme Rijn area. The aim of this research was to observe nature and quantity of the surface water and the different influences on the surface water (e.g. inflow from Rhine water, waste water, etc.). On the basis of monthly gathered data about discharge, chemistry, phytoplankton and macrofauna evaluation schemes have been developed. The surface water has been classified and qualified. The most important pollutants appeared to be the river Rhine and the sewage treatment plants.Suggestions are made to stop the pollution; the water quality expected after these measures is shown.The group consists basically of the physical geographer W. Bleuten, the botanist P. R. M. Maas, the agricultural-economist J. van Driel, the hydrobiologist-chemist B. Beltman, the technical assistent A. V. Hendriks and the chemical analyst C. Kalwer.     

Using an artificial neural network to characterize the relative suitability of environments for forest types in a complex tropical vegetation mosaic

A predictive understanding of the environmental controls on forest distributions is essential for the conservation of biodiversity and management of landscapes in the tropics. This is particularly true now because of potentially rapid climate change. The floristic complexity of tropical forests and the lack or absence of data severely limits the applicability of modelling methods based on the ecology or distribution of individual species. Here we present an artificial neural network (ANN) model using the information available in the humid tropics of North Queensland: a structural classification of forest types, maps of the forest mosaic, and estimates of spatial environmental variables. The ANN model characterizes the relative suitabilities of environments for 15 forest classes defined by their physiognomy and canopy structure. Inputs include seven climate variables, nine soil parent-material classes, and seven terrain variables. The data used to train the model consisted of a stratified random sample of 75000 points. Output of the model is used to measure the dissimilarity between the environment at each location and the environment that would be most suitable for the forest type that is mapped there. The model is highly successful at distinguishing the relative suitability of environments for the forest classes with 75% of the region's forest mosaic accurately predicted by the model at a one hectare resolution. In contrast, a comparable maximum likelihood classification has an accuracy of only 38%. In the remaining 25% of the region the environments are quite dissimilar to what would be expected for the forest types present there. This is especially the case at boundaries between forest classes and for a transitional forest class. Areas mapped as this disturbed, transitional class are generally classified by the model as having environments suitable to the forest type they are most likely to become. The approach has high potential for the analysis of climate change impacts as well as inferring vegetation patterns in the past and should be applicable wherever vegetation maps and spatial estimates of climate variables are available.     

Change in the structure of the hydrological cycle in connection with the age and recovery dynamics of forest ecosystems

On the basis of the concept of the effect of landscape structure on the water regime of a territory and on the remote sensing data for the basins of rivers on the northern macroslope of West Sayan, the land-scape hydrogeological classification of natural complexes was made and evaluation of their hydrological functions was carried out. Against the background of general altitudinal belt regularities, local features of the distribution of water balance characteristics were revealed.     

Integrating a global agro-climatic classification with bioregional boundaries in Australia

Aim Stratification of major differences in the biophysical features of landscapes at the continental scale is necessary to collectively assess local observations of landscape response to management actions for consistency and difference. Such a stratification is an important step in the development of generalizations concerning how landscapes respond to different management regimes. As part of the development of a comparative framework for this purpose, we propose a climate classification adapted from an existing broad scale global agro‐climatic classification, which is closely aligned with natural vegetation formations and common land uses across Australia. Location The project considered landscapes across the continent of Australia. Methods The global agro‐climatic classification was adapted by using elevation‐dependent thin plate smoothing splines to clarify the spatial extents of the 18 global classes found in Australia. The clarified class boundaries were interpolated from known classes at 822 points across Australia. These classes were then aligned with the existing bioregional classification, Interim Biogeographic Regionalization for Australia IBRA 5.1. Results The aligned climate classes reflect major patterns in plant growth temperature and moisture indices and seasonality. These in turn reflect broad differences in cropping and other land use characteristics. Fifty‐two of the 85 bioregions were classified entirely into one of the 18 agro‐climatic classes. The remaining bioregions were classified according to sub‐bioregional boundaries. A small number of these sub‐bioregions were split to better reflect agro‐climatic boundaries. Main conclusions The agro‐climatic classification provided an explicit global context for the analysis. The topographic dependence of the revised climate class boundaries clarified the spatial extents of poorly sampled highland classes and facilitated the alignment of these classes with the bioregional classification. This also made the classification amenable to explicit application. The bioregional and subregional boundaries reflect discontinuities in biophysical features. These permit the integrated classification to reflect major potential differences in landscape function and response to management. The refined agro‐climatic classification and its integration with the IBRA bioregions are both available for general use and assessment.     

Does the protected area network preserve bird species of conservation concern in a rapidly changing climate?

Species ranges are expected to move polewards following the changing climate, which poses novel challenges to the protected area network, particularly at northern latitudes. Here we study how well protected areas are likely to sustain populations of birds of conservation concern under a changing climate in northern Europe, in Finland. We fitted bioclimatic envelope models generated for 100 bird species to climate scenario data for the years 2051–2080 and three alternative emission scenarios in a 10-km grid system to predict changes in the species probability of occurrence. We related the projected changes in the climatic suitability to the amount of protected preferred habitat for the study species in the 10-km grid cells, and based on the cover of four main CORINE Land Cover classes in each conservation area in Finland. The probability of occurrence of all species (except marshland birds) decreased according to all scenarios, the decline being greatest in southern and smallest in northern boreal zones. This decline was slightly greater in unprotected than in protected areas for species of forests, mires and mountain habitats. The climatically suitable areas for the species were predicted to shift northwards, but the potential gain of southern species of conservation concern appears not to compensate for the loss of northern species. Thus, a representative protected area network is needed in all boreal zones. Overall, our results show that species-specific habitat preferences and habitat availability should be taken into account when assessing the efficiency of a protected area network in a changing climate.     

Distribution patterns of mesozooplankton biomass in the North Sea

During spring 1986 and winter 1987, zooplankton samples were collected over the entire North Sea by means of a multi-closing net-system. Before taxonomic treatment, wet weight estimates and carbon content conversions were carried out. From this data set, 4 962 522 tons zooplankton biomass (dry weight) were estimated for the whole North Sea during the spring survey. High biomasses (more than 100 mg C/m³) were located in areas between the Orkneys and the Shetlands, off the mouth of the Firth of Forth, the Channel and the river Rhine. Considerable zooplankton biomass was also found parallel to the Danish west coast. Furthermore, a narrow tongue of high biomass (partly greater than 200 mg C/m³) intruded from the north, between 1 °E and 4 °E, into the northern North Sea, turning to the east at 56°N, and continuing into deeper water layers to form a left turning “helix” of high biomass in the central part of the North Sea. During the winter survey the carbon content of the zooplankton stock was a factor 10 lower than in summer. Altogether, 519340 tons of zooplankton biomass (dry weight) were estimated in winter. Centres of relatively high biomass were located off the mouth of the rivers Rhine, Weser and Elbe and off the British east coast moving in a cyclic way across the Dogger Bank into the central North Sea. A further maximum of zooplankton abundance was found in the Skagerrak region. However, an intrusion of zooplankton from the shelf edge into the North Sea was not observed in winter. A qualitative analysis of species composition showed that small copepods dominated the zooplankton in the southern and eastern North Sea. The “eddy” of high biomass in the northern North Sea observed in spring, however, was mostly shaped by the large copepodCalanus finmarchicus (70–90%). The distribution of zooplankton biomass in the North Sea is discussed in relation to the hydrographic conditions and to the biology of the dominant species.     

Habitat Diversity in the Conservation of the Grassland Auchenorrhyncha (Homoptera: Cercopidae,Cicadellidae, Cixidae,Delphacidae) of Northern Britain

Definition of northern British grassland Auchenorrhyncha habitats was carried out using a classification based on analysis of data from 351 sites, involving 121 species, located between Greater Manchester and northern Scotland. Ten habitats were identified showing little influence of geographical position and exhibiting a basic upland-lowland trend. Other factors influencing habitat and species assemblage distribution were soil water, vegetation structure and land cover. An analysis of the species data with satellite-derived land cover data indicated that the lowland covers of tilled land, coast and urban and the upland covers of heath grassland and shrub heath were most important in affecting both species and assemblage distribution. The large-scale survey of grassland sites provided new information on both the ecology and distribution of individual Auchenorrhyncha species. Some were limited to specific habitat types but a considerable number were generalist species found in most or all of the 10 habitat types but showing preferences within upland to lowland or wet to dry site gradients. The ability to generate a subtle grassland Auchenorrhyncha habitat classification with large-scale survey results from standardised and reproducible sampling increases the potential for using habitat diversity for the conservation of grassland Auchenorrhyncha. Habitat preservation would also ensure that species richness (biodiversity) is maintained and that the habitats of rare species are conserved.     

Classification of nucleotide sequences over their frequency dictionaries reveals a relation between the structure of sequences and taxonomy of their bearers

Classification of 16S RNA sequences over their frequency dictionaries, both real ones, and transformed ones was studied. Two entities were considered to be close each other from the point of view of their structure, if their frequency dictionaries were close, in Eucledian metric. A transformation procedure of a frequency dictionary has been implemented that reveals the peculiarities of information structure of a nucleotide sequence. A comparative study of two classification developed over the real frequency dictionary vs. that one developed over the transformed frequency dictionary was carried out. The strong correlation is revealed between the classification and the taxonomy of 16S RNA bearer. For the classes isolated, the information valuable words were identified. These words are the main factors of a difference between the classes. The frequency dictionaries containing the words of the length 3 exhibit the best correlation between a class and a genus. A genus, as a rule, is included into the same class, and the exclusion are sporadic. A development of hierarchy classification over the transformed frequency dictionaries separated one or two taxonomy groups, as each stage of classification. The unexpectedly frequent, or contrary, unexpectedly rare occurred of words (of the length 3) in entities under consideration make the structure difference between the classes of the nucleotide sequences.     

Tracing recent invasions of the Ponto-Caspian mysid shrimp Hemimysis anomala across Europe and to North America with mitochondrial DNA

The mysid crustacean Hemimysis anomala ('bloody-red shrimp') is one of the most recent participants in the invasion of European inland waters by Ponto-Caspian species. Recently the species also became established in England and the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America. Using information from mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I (COI) gene sequences, we traced the invasion pathways of H. anomala ; the inferences were enabled by the observed phylogeographical subdivision among the source area populations in the estuaries of the Ponto-Caspian basin. The data distinguish two routes to northern and western Europe used by distinct lineages. One route has been to and through the Baltic Sea and further to the Rhine delta, probably from a population intentionally introduced to a Lithuanian water reservoir from the lower Dnieper River (NW Black Sea area) in 1960. The other lineage is derived from the Danube delta and has spread across the continent up the Danube River and further through the Main–Danube canal down to the Rhine River delta. Only the Danube lineage was found in England and in North America. The two lineages appear to have met secondarily and are now found intermixed at several sites in NW Europe, including the Rhine and waters linked with the man-made Mittellandkanal that interconnects the Rhine and Baltic drainage systems.     

A numerical phytoclimatic classification of China

The relationship is examined between vegetation and climate using climatic variables collected from 644 meteorological stations located throughout China. Multivariate methods are applied directly to the raw climatic data in order to define climatic clusters and to examine the relationship between the clusters and vegetation types. This approach is based on the concept of multidimensional climatic space defined by the combination of climatic variables. Phytoclimatic classes are defined on the basis of the distribution of vegetation types in climatic clusters and a new phytoclimatic classification of China is proposed. Patterns of climatic changes between neighbouring phytoclimatic classes are described. Two indexes of the influence of climate on vegetation are proposed based on discriminant analysis.     

Effects of Reduced Summer Precipitation on Productivity and Forage Quality of Floodplain Meadows at the Elbe and the Rhine River

BackgroundFloodplain meadows along rivers are semi-natural habitats and depend on regular land use. When used non-intensively, they offer suitable habitats for many plant species including rare ones. Floodplains are hydrologically dynamic ecosystems with both periods of flooding and of dry conditions. In German floodplains, dry periods may increase due to reduced summer precipitation as projected by climate change scenarios. Against this background, the question arises, how the forage quantity and quality of these meadows might change in future.MethodsWe report results of two field trials that investigated effects of experimentally reduced summer precipitation on hay quantity and quality of floodplain meadows at the Rhine River (2011-2012) and at two Elbe tributaries (2009-2011). We measured annual yield, the amount of hay biomass, and contents of crude protein, crude fibre, energy, fructan, nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium.ResultsThe annual yield decreased under precipitation reduction at the Rhine River. This was due to reduced productivity in the second cut hay at the Rhine River in which, interestingly, the contents of nitrogen and crude protein increased. The first cut at the Rhine River was unaffected by the treatments. At the Elbe tributaries, the annual yield and the hay quantity and quality of both cuts were only marginally affected by the treatments.ConclusionWe conclude that the yield of floodplain meadows may become less reliable in future since the annual yield decreased under precipitation reduction at the Rhine River. However, the first and agriculturally more important cut was almost unaffected by the precipitation reduction, which is probably due to sufficient soil moisture from winter/spring. As long as future water levels of the rivers will not decrease during spring, at least the use of the hay from the first cut of floodplain meadows appears reliable under climate change.     

大兴安岭北部樟子松树木生长与气候因子的关系

 在大兴安岭北部漠河(MH I、MH II 2个样点)、塔河蒙克山(MKS)、满归(MG)地区共采集樟子松(Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica)年轮样芯139个, 成功地建立了MH I、MH II、MKS和MG 4个样点的樟子松差值年表, 最长达377年(1631–2007年, 有效年表为1743–2007年)。樟子松年轮指数与气候因子的响应函数分析表明, 气温是这4个样点樟子松径向生长的主要限制因子。但4个样点限制其生长的月份有所差异, 漠河的2个样点樟子松年轮指数与6月气温负相关, 满归和塔河蒙克山樟子松年轮指数与前一年10月气温正相关。樟子松年表与区域气候的冗余分析(redundancy analysis, RDA)基本与响应函数分析的结果一致, 进一步验证了气温对大兴安岭北部樟子松生长的限制作用。该研究为全球变暖下大兴安岭北部樟子松林的经营管理及区域气候重建提供了基础数据。     

Climate patterns and the stochastic dynamics of migratory birds

We analyse time series data of 17 bird species trapped at Ottenby Bird Observatory, Sweden, during spring migration 1972–1999. The species have similar demography but respond differently to variation in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) – a strong determinant of winter climate in the northern Hemisphere. Species wintering in northern Europe, compared to species having winter quarters in the Mediterranean area, tend to respond positively to variation in NAO. The variation within each group is high due to wide-ranging winter-distribution in many species, probably smoothing out the effect of spatial variation in NAO. Whereas mild winters (high NAO) is benign for many – but not all – birds wintering in northern Europe, the effect of drier-than-normal conditions in the Mediterranean area during high NAO index winters are uncertain. The work presented here goes beyond simple correlative studies and help identifying which species that are most affected by variation in winter climate. This is a first important step that calls for a more mechanistic approach when analysing possible changes to climate change.