Seasonal forcing on the dynamics ofClethrionomys rufocanus: Modeling geographic gradients in population dynamics

We interpret gradients in population dynamics of the gray-sided vole from the southwestern part of the island of Hokkaido to its northeastern part within the framework of a phenomenological model involving the relative length of summer and winter. In Hokkaido, as in other northern regions, both spring and fall is considered as short transition periods between the two main seasons — summer (the primary breeding season) and winter (the non-reproductive or secondary breeding season). We show that the geographic transition in dynamics may be understood as the combined consequence of different patterns of density-dependence during summer and winter, and geographically varying season lengths. Differences are shown to exist between summer and winter with respect to strength of density-dependence. Direct density-dependence, in particular, is stronger during winter than during summer. A model is presented to show how relative lengths of seasons can induce both stable and periodically fluctuating population dynamics. The results are compared and contrasted with what is otherwise known about the gradient in rodent dynamics in Fennoscandia.     

A review of burrow counting as an alternative to other typical methods of assessment of Norway lobster populations

The diurnal and seasonal regulation of the complex burrowing behavior of Nephrops norvegicus complicates population assessment for this species. Population assessment is traditionally carried out by Virtual Population Analysis (Length Cohort Analysis; LCA) and swept area density estimations from catch data. However, burrow counting from visual surveys has also acquired increasing importance in recent years as an alternative and apparently efficient method. All these approaches produced non-equivalent assessment results in the literature, and therefore, a comparison and critical discussion of these methods is warranted. In this review, we pursued this goal by using already published and unpublished fishery data for a commercially exploited western Mediterranean shelf (60–100 m) population as an example. The cross-assessment was carried out by LCA, the swept area method and burrow counting in different seasons (spring-summer and autumn–winter) to highlight biases in abundance estimations in relation to Nephrops behavior. We also used novel trawl density data for other fish and decapod species in the area because the burrowing behavior of these species may deeply bias Nephrops abundance in visual surveys. LCA provided intermediate assessment values when compared to the swept area and photographic estimates, which over- and underestimated the abundance, respectively. We reviewed the problems related to the peculiar burrowing behavior of the species that generate assessment estimations of such different magnitude.     

Climate Driven Life Histories: The Case of the Mediterranean Storm Petrel

Seabirds are affected by changes in the marine ecosystem. The influence of climatic factors on marine food webs can be reflected in long-term seabird population changes. We modelled the survival and recruitment of the Mediterranean storm petrel (Hydrobates pelagicus melitensis) using a 21-year mark-recapture dataset involving almost 5000 birds. We demonstrated a strong influence of prebreeding climatic conditions on recruitment age and of rainfall and breeding period conditions on juvenile survival. The results suggest that the juvenile survival rate of the Mediterranean subspecies may not be negatively affected by the predicted features of climate change, i.e., warmer summers and lower rainfall. Based on considerations of winter conditions in different parts of the Mediterranean, we were able to draw inferences about the wintering areas of the species for the first time.     

The effects of winter severity and population density on body stores in the Iberian wild goat (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Capra pyrenaica</Emphasis>) in a highly seasonal mountain environment

We studied the factors that determined kidney fat stores (KFs) and kidney stores (Ks)—defined as the residuals from the linear regression of kidney mass and kidney fat, respectively, on body weight—in 463 Iberian wild goats (Capra pyrenaica) from the Sierra Nevada (southern Spain). Despite the fact that body stores in both sexes were highest during the warmest months of the year and lowest during the coldest months when food resources are limited, the observed pattern was sex- and age-dependent. The KFs of male goats fell more than those of females in winter, and the yearlings of both sexes needed one season more than young or adults to restore their KFs. Goats of all age classes showed the same seasonal patterns in their Ks, although Ks were lower in females than in males throughout the yearly cycle. In addition, we found strong delayed effects of both snowfalls and population density on body stores, and in years with a lot of snow, goats' KFs reached their lowest levels in the current winter–spring, but the highest in the following summers and autumns. This pattern was less noticeable in the Ks. Population density negatively affected the body stores of wild goats, especially in winter, and the amount of snow fallen in the year of birth (cohort effect) did not seem to influence the body stores in our data set. In addition, we assessed the accuracy of the residuals from the regression between body size and body mass for monitoring body condition of live wild goats and concluded that, although it poorly indicates fat stores, it could be used as a general proxy of body condition. Finally, we discuss the expected effects of climate warming on body stores in this Mediterranean Caprinae species.     

Density regulation in the Mediterranean leaf-toed gecko <Emphasis Type="Italic">Euleptes europaea</Emphasis>

Isolated populations are particularly prone to extinction, and understanding their temporal dynamics is relevant for conservation and management. In this study, the abundance of a population of the nocturnal leaf-toed gecko Euleptes europaea was estimated by mark-recapture over a 12-year period in northwest Italy. Simulation tests showed the presence of density-dependence, and autoregressive analyses indicated that direct density dependence was responsible for a large part of the variation in population growth rates. Density-dependent recruitment was suggested as the main demographic mechanism controlling population dynamics, which was also affected by solar radiation measured during the active gecko season. These results may contribute to implement conservation strategies in other small and isolated leaf-toed gecko populations.     

Survival of British Sedge Warblers Acrocephalus schoenobaenus in relation to west African rainfall

Fluctuations in the population levels and annual adult survival rates of British Sedge Warblers Acrocephalus schoenobaenus since the late 1960s are strongly correlated with indices of wet season rainfall in the west African winter quarters. Population changes are unrelated to estimates of breeding productivity in the previous year. Habitat availability in the winter quarters has probably been the main factor limiting the size of the Sedge Warbler population in Britain during the period of study.     

Nuthatches (Sitta europaea: Aves) in forest fragments: demography of a patchy population

Breeding density, local survival and summer recruitment of nuthatches were evaluated in a population scattered over many small (1–30 ha) forest fragments, and compared with study plots inside larger forests. Since most young birds settle outside the fragment in which they were born this population corresponds to the “patchy population” concept implying that patterns in abundance may be better explained by processes at the population level than by metapopulation processes. Mean breeding density was c. 50% lower in fragments and decreased with regional isolation (distance from larger forests) but not with local isolation (distance to nearby fragments). Local survival of adults and established (i.e. territorial) 1st-year birds was not related to forest size or isolation. However, fewer young birds settled in summer in the fragments compared with a large forest. This difference probably reflects high mortality during the sensitive dispersal phase. Moreover, the observed number of recruits and their estimated survival was insufficient to maintain the breeding population, suggesting significant net immigration from larger forests. This “rescue effect” explains why densities are affected by regional, but not local isolation. Received: 14 December 1998 / Accepted: 1 March 1999     

Age structure and reproduction in feral New Zealand populations of the house mouse (Mus musculus), in relation to seedfall of southern beech

Abstract

After good seedfalls by southern beech (Nothofagus spp.), density indices for mice increased, the breeding season for adult females was brought forward, and winter breeding was observed. The end of the breeding season of the following summer was brought forward only slightly if the maximum density achieved was not great; incomplete data on 2 very high-density populations suggested a much earlier end to breeding. In early winter following a good seedfall the recruitment of juveniles was temporarily increased. After spring, few young mice entered the population, though breeding continued. The distribution of age classes shifted steadily upwards as population density rose. The peak population of 1976–77 comprised mainly old mice, still breeding, but without significant recruitment. No effects of density on sex ratio, litter size, or body weight could be detected from these data. In all populations studied, density decreases were ultimately due to failure of recruitment and the disappearance of ageing, non-breeding mice. The proximate causes of this mortality were probably the onset of cold weather in 1976–77 and predation by stoats in 1979–80.     

Evidence of autumn reproduction in female European hares (Lepus europaeus) from southern Europe

Information on reproductive biology of the European hare (Lepus europaeus) in different environmental and landscape conditions comprises part of fundamental knowledge regarding species’ adaptive responses as well as many aspects of its biology. Most of the studies conducted on European hare reproduction are confined to midlatitude and northern populations, whereas no data exist on the indigenous southern populations. Here, we present information on reproductive characteristics of European hares inhabiting Mediterranean ecosystems on the island of Crete, Greece for two successive hunting seasons. Although the annual reproductive cycle of the species is well known, with an autumn sexual inactivity, the duration of this period is subjected to fluctuations in different years and for different areas. According to our data, hare populations of Crete present an autumn–early winter reproductive activity with high proportions of pregnant females observed in all the months of the study. Furthermore, the estimated mean litter size (1.54 SE ± 0.07) while signed to the lowest values ever observed for European hares is similar to values obtained in continuous breeding species of the same genus, Lepus granatensis, Lepus corsicanus, Lepus (capensis) mediterraneus, and Lepus capensis also inhabiting warm climates. In conclusion, our results suggest that Cretan European hare populations exhibit a reproductively active period during autumn–early winter where proportions of pregnant females and litter size give a strong indication of a continuous reproduction throughout the year.     

Geographic variations in life-history traits of the intertidal ocypodid crab Macrophthalmus banzai

Reproductive traits of the mud crab Macrophthalmus banzai were compared in populations from Okinawa (26°13′ N) and Amakusa (32°32′ N). Crabs matured earlier and at a smaller size in Okinawa than in Amakusa, but growth rate did not differ between the two localities. Population density was much higher in Okinawa. Breeding occurred in winter in Okinawa and in summer in Amakusa. In Okinawa, females produced one brood at over 1 year of age and then died. In Amakusa, females produced one brood at over 1 year of age, and one or two broods at around 2 years of age, and then died. Egg weight in the Okinawa population was almost twice that of the Amakusa population. Furthermore, brood weight was larger in Okinawa than in Amakusa. Longevity was 16–19 months in Okinawa and 28–30 months in Amakusa. At high latitudes, the winter low temperature blocks reproduction of M. banzai. At low temperature blocks reproduction of M. banzai. At low latitudes, their short lifespan prevents iterative breeding. Thus, the difference in breeding season greatly affects other life-history traits.     

Decline of a montane Mediterranean pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca population in relation to climate

Certain populations of long‐distance migratory birds are suffering declines, which may be attributed to effects of climate change. In this article, we have analysed a long‐term (1991–2015) data set on a pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca population breeding in nest‐boxes in a Mediterranean montane oak forest, exploring the trends in population size due to changes in nestling recruitment, female survival and female immigration. We have related these changes in population parameters to local climate, winter NAO index and to breeding density. During the last 25 yr the population has declined by half, mainly in association with a decrease in nestling mass and structural size which had repercussions on the probability of nestling recruitment to the population. Lower local nestling recruitment in certain years was linked to lower female immigration rate in the same years. On the other hand, the local survival of females remained stable throughout the study period. Laying date and breeding success were negatively affected by local temperatures while breeding, recruitment rate likewise by minimum temperature prior to breeding in April. As minimum April temperatures have increased across the study period, this may have affected recruitment and immigration rates negatively. On the other hand, tarsus length and body mass of nestlings were positively associated with winter NAO index, pointing to more global climatic links. Moreover, there was also a negative temporal trend in body mass of adults, implying increasingly difficult conditions for breeding. Declining recruit production in the study area could be attributed to a mismatch between the timing of arrival and breeding in the population, and the peak of food availability in this area.     

Wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus L.) as pioneers of recolonization in a reclaimed area

A population of wood mice, Apodemus sylvaticus, was studied by live-trapping for 15 months in an area recently reclaimed from lignite open-mining, where the species is a pioneer of recolonization. Population dynamics, spacing behaviour and feeding habits were compared with data in the literature in order to investigate how these characteristics were affected by the peculiar habitat conditions and the special situation of early colonization. Population density was remarkably high with a peak of 86 individuals/ha in autumn and a low of 20 individuals/ha in late spring. The sex-ratio was always biased towards males except during periods of low density, when the ratio was close to unity. Individual body weights and the annual course of weight class distribution showed no distinct peculiarities, although body weight increased relatively slowly in late winter. Low juvenile survival, relatively low litter sizes and early termination of breeding were special features of the population. Furthermore, very few juveniles matured in the year of birth, and the best winter survival was found in mice born in the middle of the breeding season. Activity ranges were small compared with those given in the literature, and space use was similar in both sexes. As a direct effect of the habitat conditions, the diet was largely dominated by weed seeds. The possible reasons for and causal relations of these features are discussed.     

Population dynamics of an outbreak of house mice (Mus domesticus) in the mallee wheatlands of Australia—hypothesis of plague formation

A plague of mice ( Mus domesticus ) in the Victorian mallee wheatlands of south-eastern Australia in autumn 1984 appeared to be generated by a sequence of rainfall events: high autumn (March), mid winter and late winter rainfall in 1983, and high summer rainfall in 1983/84. The March rainfall in 1983 ended a drought; mice began to breed and bred until the end of May. Relatively high survival of mice for 12 months after March 1983, together with early onset of breeding and high reproductive performance throughout the 1983/84 breeding season, including summer, were key demographic processes during the formation of the plague. Temporal differences in mouse abundance and breeding performance between habitats highlighted the relevance of specific habitats to the dynamics of mouse populations in the wheatlands. Fencelines were the most important habitat of mice because they were foci for breeding at the start of the breeding season, good nesting sites which were rarely disturbed, and widespread and in close proximity to crops. Cereal crops were colonized in spring 1983 and in autumn 1984; they became important habitats in 1983 when mice dispersed and bred there in early spring. Redhead's (1988) model was sufficient to explain the 1984 plague, but not the magnitude of the decline of mouse numbers in 1984, nor the absence of a further outbreak in 1985. A new model is proposed based on a sequence of rainfall events beginning at least 10 months prior to a plague.     

Population structure and dynamics of wood mouse Apodemus sylvaticus in Iceland

Five-year-studies of two wood mouse populations (Apodemus sylvaticus L.) were carried out outside the village Vík. S. Iceland, and in a birch forest close to the lake Mývatn, N. Iceland. The population at Vík was studied on a 1.10 ha grid on a slope covered with Angelica archangelica L., the seeds of which constituted a major food resource for the mice. Altogether 948 individuals were caught, marked and followed during 1973–1978. No other free-living small mammals occur in Iceland, and predator pressure is low and considered non-existent on the Angelica slope. The population density was extremely high; highest autumn density recorded was 150 ind ha^?1. Like other Apodemus populations, the one at Vík showed a typical seasonal pattern in numbers: a winter decrease, relatively stable numbers in late summer, and an autumn peak. Breeding started in late April or early May and ended in late September; no winter breeding was observed. Three or four litters were produced, and the last litter(s) of the season greatly contributed to the autumn increase. The output of young per reproductive female throughout the year was negatively correlated with spring density, and autumn peak density with the number of females in August. Also overwinter success and weight changes appeared to be associated with population density (and weather). Survival rates did not vary much between years and seasons and were consistently rather high. Autumn survival of juveniles was positively correlated with mean minimum temperatures. Juvenile survival was, at least at times, negatively affected by the presence of adult males. Trapping outside the main grid did not indicate any marked dispersal, though some immigration to the grid must have occurred, especially in spring and early summer. Among the factors governing the population density and dynamics of wood mouse at Vík we emphasize the absence of interspecific competition and predation, the rich and dependable food resources (mainly Angelica seeds), the mild (though moist and windy) climate, the shelter of dense Angelica stands, the abundance of crevices (e.g. nest-sites), and the social interactions. The birch forest in northern Iceland was low productive and the wood mouse population differed from the Vík population by exhibiting low density, short breeding season, and high vagility; characteristics we consider to be representative for most Apodemus populations in Iceland.     

Adaptive phenotypic plasticity and the successful colonization of a novel environment

Behavior and other forms of phenotypic plasticity potentially enable individuals to deal with novel situations. This implies that establishment of a population in a new environment is aided by plastic responses, as first suggested by Baldwin (1896). In the early 1980s, a small population of dark-eyed juncos from a temperate, montane environment became established in a Mediterranean climate in coastal San Diego. The breeding season of coastal juncos is more than twice as long as that of the ancestral population, and they fledge approximately twice as many young. We investigated the adaptive significance of the longer breeding season and its consequences for population persistence. Within the coastal population, individuals with longer breeding seasons have higher offspring production and recruitment, with no measured detrimental effects such as higher mortality or lower reproductive success the following year. Population size has remained approximately constant during the 6 years of study (1998-2003). The increase in reproductive effort in the coastal population contributes substantially to the persistence of this population because there is no evidence of density-dependent recruitment, which would otherwise negate the effects of increased fledgling production. These results provide the first quantitative support of Baldwin's proposition that plasticity can be crucial for population persistence during the early stages of colonization.     

Carry-over effects from passage regions are more important than breeding climate in determining the breeding phenology and performance of three avian migrants of conservation concern

Long distance migrants are declining more rapidly than residents, with birds that breed in Europe and winter in tropical Africa providing particularly clear examples. Causal mechanisms may include climate change, but are poorly understood partly because carry-over effects from non-breeding ranges can influence breeding performance. Using long-term data spanning four decades we assess how climatic variation in migrants’ winter, passage and breeding ranges determine timing of breeding and reproductive success. We do so for three Afro-European avian migrants of regional conservation concern (redstart, spotted flycatcher and wood warbler). We find that carry-over effects from passage regions consistently had stronger impacts on breeding phenology than breeding climate. Warm Mediterranean passage conditions promoted earlier breeding in all species, and redstarts also bred earlier following higher Sahel rainfall. Warmer springs on the breeding grounds promoted slightly earlier breeding in redstart and wood warbler, but not spotted flycatcher. Carry-over effects also typically influenced breeding performance to a greater extent than weather on the breeding grounds. Greater rainfall in the Sahel increased redstart brood size, warmer Mediterranean passage conditions increased spotted flycatcher brood size and, to a lesser extent, the number of wood warbler fledglings. In contrast to the concern regarding climate change impacts on migrants’ breeding grounds we found no evidence that warmer temperatures on the breeding grounds were associated with reduced reproductive performance. We thus find that climatic variation on the non-breeding grounds, especially passage regions, typically influenced migrants’ breeding phenology and demography more strongly than equivalent variation on the breeding sites. Such carry-over effects should be considered when assessing the causes of migrants’ marked population declines.     

Effects of density-dependence and climate on the dynamics of a Svalbard reindeer population

To determine the main factors affecting the population dynamics of Svalbard reindeer, we analysed 21 yr of annual censuses, including data on population size, recruitment rate (calves per female) and mortality (number of deaths), from the Reindalen reindeer population. In accordance with previous studies on population dynamics of Svalbard reindeer, we found large inter-annual variation in population size, mortality and recruitment rates within the study area. Population size decreased in years with low recruitment rate as well as high winter mortality and vice versa. Apparently. the fluctuations were due to both direct density-dependent food limitation and variation in winter climate associated with high precipitation and icing of the feeding range. We found no delayed density-dependence or effect of climatic conditions during summer on the population dynamics. The mortality during die-off years was mainly of calves and very old individuals, indicating that the population was more vulnerable to high die oft in years following high recruitment rate. These results suggest an unstable interaction between the reindeer population and its food supply in these predator-free environments.     

Fire season effects on the recruitment of non‐sprouting serotinous Proteaceae in the eastern (bimodal rainfall) fynbos biome,South Africa

Abstract Research in Mediterranean‐climate shrublands in both South Africa and Australia shows that recruitment of proteoid shrubs (non‐sprouting, serotinous Proteaceae) is best after warm‐season (summer and autumn) fires and worst after cool‐season (winter and spring) ones. This pattern has been attributed to post‐dispersal seed attrition as well as size of pre‐dispersal seed reserves. Here we investigate patterns of post‐fire recruitment for four proteoid species in the eastern part of South Africa's fynbos biome, which has a bimodal (spring and autumn) rainfall regime. Despite the lack of significant differences in recruitment between cool‐ and warm‐season burns, we find some evidence for favourable recruitment periods following fires in spring and autumn, immediately before, and coinciding with, the bimodal rainfall peaks. This suggests that enhanced recruitment is associated with conditions of high soil moisture immediately after the fire, and that rapid germination may minimize post‐dispersal seed attrition. In two of the species, we also find a shift from peak flowering in winter and spring in the Mediterranean‐climate part of the fynbos biome, to summer and autumn flowering in the eastern part. Because these two species are only weakly serotinous, warm‐season flowering would result in maximal seed banks in spring, which could explain the spring recruitment peak, but not the autumn one. We conclude that eastern recruitment patterns differ significantly from those observed in the western and central parts of the biome, and that fire management protocols for the east, which are currently based on data and experience from the winter‐rainfall fynbos biome, need to be adjusted accordingly. Fire managers in the eastern fynbos biome should be less constrained by requirements to burn within a narrow seasonal range, and should therefore be in a better position to apply the required management burns.     

Cyclic voles and shrews and non-cyclic mice in a marginal grassland within European temperate forest

Cyclic population dynamics of small mammals are not restricted to the boreal and arctic zones of Eurasia and North America, but long-term data series from lower latitudes are still less common. We demonstrated here the presence of periodic oscillations in small mammal populations in eastern Poland using 22-year (1986–2007) trapping data from marginal meadow and river valley grasslands located in the extensive temperate woodland of Białowieża Primeval Forest. The two most common species inhabiting meadows and river valleys, root vole Microtus oeconomus and common shrew Sorex araneus, exhibited synchronous periodic changes, characterised by a 3-year time lag as indicated by an autocorrelation function. Moreover, the cycles of these two species were synchronous within both habitats. Population dynamics of the striped field mouse Apodemus agrarius was not cyclic. However, this species regularly reached maximum density 1 year before the synchronized peak of root voles and common shrews, which may suggest the existence of interspecific competition. Dynamics of all three species was dominated by direct density-dependent process, whereas delayed density dependent feedback was significant only in the root vole and common shrew. Climatic factors acting in winter and spring (affecting mainly survival and initial reproduction rates) were more important than those acting in summer and autumn and affected significantly only the common shrew. High temperatures in winter and spring had positive effects on autumn-to-autumn changes in abundance of this species, whereas deep snow in combination with high rainfall in spring negatively affected population increase rates in common shrew.     

Spatial variation in the demography and population dynamics of a perennial shrub (Atriplex vesicaria) under sheep grazing in semi‐arid Australian rangelands

Atriplex vesicaria Heward ex Benth. (Chenopodiaceae) is a widespread perennial shrub in southern Australia's chenopod rangelands but is sensitive to grazing. A detailed investigation of the demography and population dynamics of A. vesicaria under sheep grazing was conducted over 6.5 years at a range of sites across a typical paddock to assess the long‐term effects of grazing on the species and elucidate the mechanisms of population change under grazing. The effects of rainfall on recruitment and mortality were also examined. Six‐monthly censuses of all A. vesicaria individuals were conducted in permanent grazed and ungrazed plots at sites located across an 1100‐ha paddock. Grazing increased adult shrub mortality close to water and reduced recruitment over a broader area of the paddock, but seedling survival did not appear to be affected by grazing. As a result of these changes, the population declined on grazed plots up to 2200 m from water during the study, but the decline was greatest closer to water. The population was most dynamic at the sites furthest from the water point where it was unaffected by grazing because of the greater recruitment and mortality of young plants, but because these processes balanced out over time, population density was effectively unchanged by the end of the study. Although statistical models indicated that six‐monthly rainfall did not explain temporal variation in recruitment or mortality, rainfall nevertheless has a central role in both processes. In particular, longer periods of favourable rainfall and drought appear to have an important influence on recruitment and mortality, respectively, with heavy grazing during a drought period increasing mortality. Occasional shortages of seed or rains occurring during the warmer months when seed germination is limited possibly explain poor recruitment at sites unaffected by grazing following good rainfall.