Palaeontological data and identifying mass extinctions

It is often assumed that mass extinctions may be read directly from the fossil record. However, recent work on the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) boundary has shown the difficulty of doing this. For example, it is hard to tell whether the stratigraphic ranges of taxa are complete or not, and what the shape of an extinction really is. Range completeness may be assessed by (1) a statistical approach to the relative completeness of ranges of taxa, and (2) tests based on collecting effort near the ends of ranges. Tests carried out recently suggest that the record is good in parts and getting better. Hence, palaeontologists ought to be able to document the nature of extinction events ever more precisely.     

Phylogenetic Clustering of Origination and Extinction across the Late Ordovician Mass Extinction

Mass extinctions can have dramatic effects on the trajectory of life, but in some cases the effects can be relatively small even when extinction rates are high. For example, the Late Ordovician mass extinction is the second most severe in terms of the proportion of genera eliminated, yet is noted for the lack of ecological consequences and shifts in clade dominance. By comparison, the end-Cretaceous mass extinction was less severe but eliminated several major clades while some rare surviving clades diversified in the Paleogene. This disconnect may be better understood by incorporating the phylogenetic relatedness of taxa into studies of mass extinctions, as the factors driving extinction and recovery are thought to be phylogenetically conserved and should therefore promote both origination and extinction of closely related taxa. Here, we test whether there was phylogenetic selectivity in extinction and origination using brachiopod genera from the Middle Ordovician through the Devonian. Using an index of taxonomic clustering (R_CL) as a proxy for phylogenetic clustering, we find that A) both extinctions and originations shift from taxonomically random or weakly clustered within families in the Ordovician to strongly clustered in the Silurian and Devonian, beginning with the recovery following the Late Ordovician mass extinction, and B) the Late Ordovician mass extinction was itself only weakly clustered. Both results stand in stark contrast to Cretaceous-Cenozoic bivalves, which showed significant levels of taxonomic clustering of extinctions in the Cretaceous, including strong clustering in the mass extinction, but taxonomically random extinctions in the Cenozoic. The contrasting patterns between the Late Ordovician and end-Cretaceous events suggest a complex relationship between the phylogenetic selectivity of mass extinctions and the long-term phylogenetic signal in origination and extinction patterns.     

The complex effects of mass extinctions on morphological disparity

Studies of biodiversity through deep time have been a staple for biologists and paleontologists for over 60 years. Investigations of species richness (diversity) revealed that at least five mass extinctions punctuated the last half billion years, each seeing the rapid demise of a large proportion of contemporary taxa. In contrast to diversity, the response of morphological diversity (disparity) to mass extinctions is unclear. Generally, diversity and disparity are decoupled, such that diversity may decline as morphological disparity increases, and vice versa. Here, we develop simulations to model disparity changes across mass extinctions using continuous traits and birth-death trees. We find no simple null for disparity change following a mass extinction but do observe general patterns. The range of trait values decreases following either random or trait-selective mass extinctions, whereas variance and the density of morphospace occupation only decline following trait-selective events. General trends may differentiate random and trait-selective mass extinctions, but methods struggle to identify trait selectivity. Long-term effects of mass extinction trait selectivity change support for phylogenetic comparative methods away from the simulated Brownian motion toward Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and Early Burst models. We find that morphological change over mass extinction is best studied by quantifying multiple aspects of morphospace occupation.     

Extinction

A significant proportion of conservationists' work is directed towards efforts to save disappearing species. This relies upon the belief that species extinction is undesirable. When justifications are offered for this belief, they very often rest upon the assumption that extinction brought about by humans is different in kind from other forms of extinction. This paper examines this assumption and reveals that there is indeed good reason to suppose current anthropogenic extinctions to be different in kind from extinctions brought about at other times or by other factors. Having considered – and rejected – quantity and rate of extinction as useful distinguishing factors, four alternative arguments are offered, each identifying a way in which anthropogenic extinction is significantly different from other forms of extinction, even mass extinction: (1) Humans are a different kind of natural cause from other causes of extinction; (2) Extinctions brought about by humans are uniquely persistent; (3) Anthropogenic extinctions are effectively random whereas past mass extinctions are rule-bound; (4) The impact of the current anthropogenic extinction event differs from the impact of other extinction events of the past, such that future recovery may not follow past patterns. Together, these four arguments suggest that the present-day extinction event brought about by humans may be unprecedented and that we cannot clearly extrapolate from past to present recovery from extinctions. Although insufficient as justification for the claim that present-day extinctions are undesirable, the arguments provide some ammunition for conservationists' conviction that species extinction – in which humans play an accelerating role – ought to be prevented.     

The two Early Toarcian (Early Jurassic) extinction events in ammonoids

The Early Toarcian (Early Jurassic) biological crisis was one of the ‘minor’ mass extinctions. It is linked with an oceanic anoxic event. Fossil data from sections located in northwestern European (epicontinental platforms and basins) and Tethyan (distal, epioceanic) areas indicate that Late Pliensbachian–Early Toarcian ammonoids experienced two extinction events during the Early Toarcian. The older one is linked with disruption of the Tethyan–Boreal provinciality, whereas the younger event correlates with the onset of anoxia and corresponds with the Early Toarcian mass‐extinction event. These two extinctions cannot be interpreted as episodes of a single, stepwise, event. Values of the net diversification, more than the number of extinctions, allow the two extinction events to be clearly recognized and distinguished. Values of regional net diversification for northwestern European and Tethyan faunas point to greater evolutionary dynamics in the epioceanic areas. The inclusion of Mediterranean faunas in the database proves that the ammonite turnover at the Early Toarcian mass‐extinction event was more important than previously thought. Progenitor (evolute Neolioceratoides), survivor (Dactylioceras, Polyplectus pluricostatus) and Lazarus (Procliviceras) taxa have been recognized. Different selectivity patterns are shown for the two events. The first one, linked to the disruption of the Tethyan–Boreal provinciality, has mainly affected ammonites adapted to epicontinental platforms. In the mass‐extinction event, no selectivity is recognized, because also Phylloceratina and Lytoceratina were deeply affected at species level, although their wide biogeographical distribution at clade level was a significant buffer against extinction. In contrast to Palaeozoic mass extinctions, ammonoid survivors and Lazarus taxa are characterized by complex sutures: Phylloceratina (long‐ranging ammonoids) and Polyplectus (relatively long‐ranging compared to other Ammonitina).     

Non-selectivity in extinction of bivalves in the Late Cretaceous of the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plain of North America

It has been suggested that the biogeographic and clade-level characteristics of marine invertebrate groups important in survival through mass extinctions are different from those important in survival during normal times. The role played by ecologically important characters in survival across mass extinctions, however, has not been well-studied. We obtained information from the literature about the feeding mode and morphology, burrowing habits, size and depth below sea-level inhabited, temperature range, shell thickness, species richness and abundance of bivalve genera present in the Late Cretaceous of the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plain of North America. Non-parametric analysis revealed that there were no significant associations between any of these characteristics and survival across the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary. This lack of selectivity may be due to varying local conditions, which favor different ecological characteristics in each area and produce no overall pattern of selectivity. It might also be indicative of the severity of this extinction on bivalves — differences in ecological habits may have been virtually irrelevant to survivorship through this event.     

A Cretaceous-Tertiary mass extinction? Were most of Earth's species killed off?

For the past decade, the scientific and popular press have carried frequent articles about a catastrophic mass extinction that supposedly destroyed the majority of the earth's species, including the dinosaurs, approximately 65 million years ago. Since 1980, more than 2000 papers and books have dealt with some aspect of a mass extinction at the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K/T) boundary. One authoritative estimate of the severity of the extinctions is that 60-80% of all the living species became extinct at this boundary (Raup 1988). There appears to be a general acceptance of the fact that such a great catastrophe did occur. Most of the argument among scientists now is devoted to the determination of the cause. In this article, I argue that the species changes at the K/T boundary were neither sudden nor catastrophic. They were most likely caused by a regression of sea level that led to a decrease in primary production.     

Mass extinctions do not explain skew in interspecific body size distributions

In several higher animal taxa, such as mammals and birds, the distribution of species body sizes is heavily skewed towards small size. Previous studies have suggested that small‐bodied organisms are less prone to extinction than large‐bodied species. If small body size is favourable during mass extinction events, a post mass extinction excess of small‐bodied species may proliferate and maintain skewed body size distributions sometime after. Here, we modelled mass extinctions and found that even unrealistically strong body mass selection has little effect on the skew of interspecific body size distributions. Moreover, selection against large body size may, counter intuitively, skew size distributions towards large body size. In any case, subsequent evolutionary diversification rapidly erases these rather small effects mass extinctions may have on size distributions. Next, we used body masses of extant species and phylogenetic methods to investigate possible changes in body size distributions across the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K‐Pg) mass extinction. Body size distributions of extant clades that originated during the Cretaceous are on average more skewed than their subclades that originated during the Paleogene, but the difference is only minor in mammals, and in birds, it can be explained by a positive relationship between species richness and skewness that is also present in clades that originated after the transition. Hence, we cannot infer from extant species whether the K‐Pg mass extinctions were size‐selective, but they are not the reason why most extant bird and mammal species are small‐bodied.     

Was the Late Ordovician mass extinction truly exceptional?

The Late Ordovician mass extinction event is the oldest of the five great extinction events in the fossil record. It has long been regarded as an outlier among mass extinctions, primarily due to its association with a cooling climate. However, recent temporally better resolved fossil biodiversity estimates complicate this view, providing growing evidence for a prolonged but punctuated biodiversity decline modulated by changes in atmospheric composition, ocean chemistry, and viable habitat area. This evolving view invokes extinction drivers similar to those that occurred during other major extinctions; some are even factors in the current human-induced biodiversity crisis. Even this very ancient and, at first glance, exceptional event conveys important lessons about the intensifying ‘sixth mass extinction’.     

Re-assessing current extinction rates

There is a widespread belief that we are experiencing a mass extinction event similar in severity to previous mass extinction events in the last 600 million years where up to 95% of species disappeared. This paper reviews evidence for current extinctions and different methods of assessing extinction rates including species–area relationships and loss of tropical forests, changing threat status of species, co-extinction rates and modelling the impact of climate change. For 30 years some have suggested that extinctions through tropical forest loss are occurring at a rate of up to 100 species a day and yet less than 1,200 extinctions have been recorded in the last 400 years. Reasons for low number of identified global extinctions are suggested here and include success in protecting many endangered species, poor monitoring of most of the rest of species and their level of threat, extinction debt where forests have been lost but species still survive, that regrowth forests may be important in retaining ‘old growth’ species, fewer co-extinctions of species than expected, and large differences in the vulnerability of different taxa to extinction threats. More recently, others have suggested similar rates of extinction to earlier estimates but with the key cause of extinction being climate change, and in particular rising temperatures, rather than deforestation alone. Here I suggest that climate change, rather than deforestation is likely to bring about such high levels of extinction since the impacts of climate change are local to global and that climate change is acting synergistically with a range of other threats to biodiversity including deforestation.     

Mass extinction: a commentary

Four neocatastrophist claims about mass extinction are currently being debated; they are that: 1, the late Cretaceous mass extinction was caused by large body impact; 2, as many as five other major extinctions were caused by impact; 3, the timing of extinction events since the Permian is uniformly periodic; and 4, the ages of impact craters on Earth are also periodic and in phase with the extinctions. Although strongly interconnected the four claims are independent in the sense that none depends on the others. Evidence for a link between impact and extinction is strong but still needs more confirmation through bed-by-bed and laboratory studies. An important area for future research is the question of whether extinction is a continuous process, with the rate increasing at times of mass extinctions, or whether it is episodic at all scales. If the latter is shown to be generally true, then species are at risk of extinction only rarely during their existence and catastrophism, in the sense of isolated events of extreme stress, is indicated. This is line of reasoning can only be considered an hypothesis for testing. In a larger context, paleontologists may benefit from a research strategy that looks to known Solar System and Galactic phenomena for predictions about environmental effects on earth. The recent success in the recognition of Milankovitch Cycles in the late Pleistocene record is an example of the potential of this research area.     

Signatures of random and selective mass extinctions in phylogenetic tree balance

Current models of diversification with evolving speciation rates have trouble mimicking the extreme imbalance seen in estimated phylogenies. However, these models have not incorporated extinction. Here, we report on a simple simulation model that includes heritable and evolving speciation rates coupled with mass extinctions, Random (but not selective) mass extinctions, coupled with evolving among-lineage variation in speciation rates, increase imbalance of postrecovery clades. Thus, random mass extinctions are plausible contributors to the imbalance of modern clades. Paleontological evidence suggests that mass extinctions are often random with respect to ecological and morphological traits, consistent with our simulations. In contrast, evidence that the current anthropogenic mass extinction is phylogenetically selective suggests that the current extinction episode may be qualitatively different from past ones in the way it reshapes future biotas.     

The best sections method of studying mass extinctions

Phanerozoic mass extinctions have been studied primarily by analysing global diversity patterns compiled from the published literature. However, such compilations are beset by problems of incorrect correlation, imprecise age assignments and changing taxonomy. An alternative approach is to analyse mass extinctions by the ‘best sections’ method. This method identifies abundantly fossiliferous, well‐studied, stratigraphically dense and temporally extensive fossil records in strata that contain geochemical and other relevant non‐palaeontological data from a single depositional basin or geographically restricted outcrop area as the ‘best sections’ by which to analyse extinctions. A strength of the best sections method is that it allows the extinctions identified to be compared directly to changes in facies and other factors recorded in the best section. And, the hypothesis of a widespread extinction based on an extinction seen in a best section can be tested by its presence or absence in temporally equivalent sections. What we need are more field‐based studies of the best sections that encompass mass extinctions (real and hypothetical) and less of a reliance on literature‐based diversity compilations to produce a more reliable and comprehensive understanding of the history of extinctions.     

From success to persistence: Identifying an evolutionary regime shift in the diverse Paleozoic aquatic arthropod group Eurypterida,driven by the Devonian biotic crisis

Mass extinctions have altered the trajectory of evolution a number of times over the Phanerozoic. During these periods of biotic upheaval a different selective regime appears to operate, although it is still unclear whether consistent survivorship rules apply across different extinction events. We compare variations in diversity and disparity across the evolutionary history of a major Paleozoic arthropod group, the Eurypterida. Using these data, we explore the group's transition from a successful, dynamic clade to a stagnant persistent lineage, pinpointing the Devonian as the period during which this evolutionary regime shift occurred. The late Devonian biotic crisis is potentially unique among the “Big Five” mass extinctions in exhibiting a drop in speciation rates rather than an increase in extinction. Our study reveals eurypterids show depressed speciation rates throughout the Devonian but no abnormal peaks in extinction. Loss of morphospace occupation is random across all Paleozoic extinction events; however, differential origination during the Devonian results in a migration and subsequent stagnation of occupied morphospace. This shift appears linked to an ecological transition from euryhaline taxa to freshwater species with low morphological diversity alongside a decrease in endemism. These results demonstrate the importance of the Devonian biotic crisis in reshaping Paleozoic ecosystems.     

Stepwise mass extinctions and impact events: Late Eocene to early Oligocene

Species ranges and relative abundances of dominant planktonic foraminifers of eight late Eocene to early Oligocene deep-sea sections are discussed to determine the nature and magnitude of extinctions and to investigate a possible cause-effect relationship between impact events and mass extinctions.Late Eocene extinctions are neither catastrophic nor mass extinctions, but occur stepwise over a period of about 1–2 million years. Four stepwise extinctions are identified at the middle/late Eocene boundary, the upperGlobigerapsis semiinvoluta zone, theG. semiinvoluta/Globorotalia cerroazulensis zone boundary and at the Eocene/Oligocene boundary. Each stepwise extinction event represents a time of accelerated faunal turnover characterized by generally less than 15% species extinct and in itself is not a significant extinction event. Relative species abundance changes at each stepwise extinction event, however, indicate a turnover involving > 60% of the population implying major environmental changes.There microtektite horizons are present in late Eocene sediments; one in the upperG. semiinvoluta zone (38.2 Ma) and two closely spaced layers only a few thousand years apart in the lower part of theGloborotalia cerroazulensis zone (37.2 Ma). Each of the three impact events appears to have had some effect on microplankton communities. However, the overriding factor that led to the stepwise mass extinctions may have been the result of multiple causes as there is no evidence of impacts associated with the step preceding, or the step following the deposition of the presently known microtektite horizons.     

Some remarks on the structure and function of refugia in ecology and palaeoecology

Studies of processes connected with various Phanerozoic mass extinctions suggest that although these events differ in details from each other, they manifest certain global mutual similarities. There is a number of detailed data on the mass extinction phases but only scarce information on the survival and recovery intervals directly following the crises. In connection with the biota crises studies also the problem of refugia started to be discussed very intensively, because namely fossil refugia can contain fossils representing important connecting links getting over boundaries of mass extinctions. The aim of this article is to join some general considerations of possible refugia structures, functions and spatial and temporal changes to the discussion being in progress.     

Modeling Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary events with extant photosynthetic plankton: effects of impact-related acid rain

Griffis, K. & Chapman, D. J. 1990 10 15: Modeling Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary events with extant photosynthetic plankton: effects of impact-related acid rain. Lethaia , Vol. 23, pp. 379–383. OSIO. ISSN 0024–1164.
An acid rain phenomenon has previously been proposed as one of the consequences of a bolide impact contributing to the extinctions at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary. This hypothesis has been tested by observing the growth responses of four organisms under simulated acid rain conditions. Two of these phytoplankton, Ditylum (a diatom) and Thoracosphaera (a dinoflagellate). are genera that persisted through the boundary, while the other two, Coccolithus (a coccolithophorid) and Gonyaulax (a dinoflagellate), are post-boundary genera. Ditylum and Coccolithus survive the acid rain simulation. but with the loss of scales in Coccolithus . The two dinoflagellate are sensitive to acid rain simulations. with Gonyaulax unable to survive beyond seven days. The results indicate that acid rain may have contributed to the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary extinctions. but that the changes resulting from the acid rain were not as severe as postulated or were short-lived and quickly dissipated. ▭ Acid rain, coccolithophorids. Cretaceous/Tertiary extinctions, diatons, dinoflagellates, phytoplankton .     

The ghosts of mammals past: biological and geographical patterns of global mammalian extinction across the Holocene

Although the recent historical period is usually treated as a temporal base-line for understanding patterns of mammal extinction, mammalian biodiversity loss has also taken place throughout the Late Quaternary. We explore the spatial, taxonomic and phylogenetic patterns of 241 mammal species extinctions known to have occurred during the Holocene up to the present day. To assess whether our understanding of mammalian threat processes has been affected by excluding these taxa, we incorporate extinct species data into analyses of the impact of body mass on extinction risk. We find that Holocene extinctions have been phylogenetically and spatially concentrated in specific taxa and geographical regions, which are often not congruent with those disproportionately at risk today. Large-bodied mammals have also been more extinction-prone in most geographical regions across the Holocene. Our data support the extinction filter hypothesis, whereby regional faunas from which susceptible species have already become extinct now appear less threatened; they may also suggest that different processes are responsible for driving past and present extinctions. We also find overall incompleteness and inter-regional biases in extinction data from the recent fossil record. Although direct use of fossil data in future projections of extinction risk is therefore not straightforward, insights into extinction processes from the Holocene record are still useful in understanding mammalian threat.     

Taxon age,origination, and extinction through geologic time

Changes in the taxon ages of fossil marine families that are alive and those that become extinct in each stage of the Phanerozoic reflect changes in the origination rate, differences in the extinction rate of families with different taxon ages, and mass extinction events. Extinct families are generally much younger than the population from which they were drawn. Periods dominated by higher numbers of younger families are more susceptible to larger size extinctions and greater variation in extinction size. As a result the relative size of extinction peaks must be viewed with regard to the taxon age structure of the population. Mass extinctions cause little change in the taxon age of the fauna. However, adaptive radiations cause a large drop in the average age of the families that are alive at any given time. Families must be treated as dynamic entities in macroevolutionary studies because their probabilities of extinction change over time.     

The uncertain blitzkrieg of Pleistocene megafauna

We investigated, using meta‐analysis of empirical data and population modelling, plausible scenarios for the cause of late Pleistocene global mammal extinctions. We also considered the rate at which these extinctions may have occurred, providing a test of the so‐called ‘blitzkrieg’ hypothesis, which postulates a rapid, anthropogenically driven, extinction event. The empirical foundation for this work was a comprehensive data base of estimated body masses of mammals, comprising 198 extinct and 433 surviving species > 5 kg, which we compiled through an extensive literature search. We used mechanistic population modelling to simulate the role of human hunting efficiency, meat off‐take, relative naivety of prey to invading humans, variation in reproductive fitness of prey and deterioration of habitat quality (due to either anthropogenic landscape burning or climate change), and explored the capacity of different modelling scenarios to recover the observed empirical relationship between body mass and extinction proneness. For the best‐fitting scenarios, we calculated the rate at which the extinction event would have occurred. All of the modelling was based on sampling randomly from a plausible range of parameters (and their interactions), which affect human and animal population demographics. Our analyses of the empirical data base revealed that the relationship between body mass and extinction risk relationship increases continuously from small‐ to large‐sized animals, with no clear ‘megafaunal’ threshold. A logistic ancova model incorporating body mass and geography (continent) explains 92% of the variation in the observed extinctions. Population modelling demonstrates that there were many plausible mechanistic scenarios capable of reproducing the empirical body mass–extinction risk relationship, such as specific targeting of large animals by humans, or various combinations of habitat change and opportunistic hunting. Yet, given the current imperfect knowledge base, it is equally impossible to use modelling to isolate definitively any single scenario to explain the observed extinctions. However, one universal prediction, which applied in all scenarios in which the empirical distribution was correctly predicted, was for the extinctions to be rapid following human arrival and for surviving fauna to be suppressed below their pre‐‘blitzkrieg’ densities. In sum, human colonization in the late Pleistocene almost certainly triggered a ‘blitzkrieg’ of the ‘megafauna’, but the operational details remain elusive.