Recruitment rates exhibit high elasticity and high temporal variation in populations of a short-lived perennial herb

Empirical studies for different life histories have shown an inverse relationship between elasticity (i.e. the proportional contribution to population growth rate) and temporal variation in vital rates. It is accepted that this relationship indicates the effect of selective pressures in reducing variation in those life‐history traits with a major impact on fitness. In this paper, we sought to determine whether changes in environmental conditions affect the relationship between elasticity of vital rates and their temporal variation, and whether vital rates with simultaneously large elasticity and temporal variation might represent a characteristic life‐history strategy. We used demographic data on 13 populations of the short‐lived Hypericum cumulicola over 5–6 years, in three time‐since‐fire classes. For each population of each time‐since‐fire, we computed the mean matrix over years and its respective elasticity matrix, and the coefficients of variation in matrix entries over study years as an estimate of temporal variability. We found that mean elasticity negatively significantly correlated with temporal variation in vital rates in populations (overall eight out of 13) included in each time‐since‐fire. However, seedling recruitment exhibited both high elasticity and high temporal variation in almost all study populations. These results indicated that (1) the general relationship between elasticity and temporal variation in vital rates was not modified by environmental changes due to time‐since‐fire, and (2) high elasticity and high temporal variation in seedling recruitment in H. cumulicola is a particular trait of the species' life history. After seed survival in the soil seed bank, seedling recruitment represents the most important life‐history trait influencing H. cumulicola population growth rate (and fitness). The high temporal variability in seedling recruitment suggests that this trait is determined by environmental cues, leading to an increase in population size and subsequent replenishment of the seed bank in favorable years.     

Linking demographic responses and life history tactics from longitudinal data in mammals

In stochastic environments, a change in a demographic parameter can influence the population growth rate directly or via a resulting impact on age structure. Stochastic elasticity of the long‐run stochastic growth rate λ_s to a demographic parameter offers a suitable way to measure the overall demographic response because it includes both the direct effect of changing the demographic parameter and its indirect effect through changes in the age structure. From 25 mammalian populations with contrasting life histories, we investigated how pace of life and population growth rate influence the demographic responses (measured as the relative contributions of the direct and indirect components of stochastic elasticity on λ_s). We found that in short‐lived species, the change in population structure resulting from an increase in yearling survival leads to an additional increase in λ_s, whereas in long‐lived species, the same change in population structure leads to a decrease. Short‐lived species thus display a boom‐bust life history strategy contrary to long‐lived species, for which the long lifespan dampens the demographic consequences of changing age structure. Irrespective of the species’ life history strategy, the change in population age structure resulting from an increase in adult survival leads to an additional increase in λ_s due to an increase of the proportion of mature individuals in the population. On the contrary, a change in population age structure resulting from an increase of reproductive performance leads to a decrease in λ_s that is due to the increase of the proportion of immature individuals in the population. Our comparative analysis of stochastic elasticity patterns in mammals shows the existence of different demographic responses to changes in age structure between short‐ and long‐lived species, which improves our understanding of population dynamics in variable environments in relation to the species‐specific pace of life.     

Prediction vs. reality: Can a PVA model predict population persistence 13 years later?

The challenge of conservation biology is to make models that predict population dynamics and have a high probability of accurately tracking population change (increase, decrease, constancy). In this study we tested whether the transition model is accurate enough to predict population persistence and size 13 years down and whether after 13 years populations had achieved a stable stage distribution. We modeled 6 small populations of an epiphytic orchid using a Lefkovitch type analysis to predict population growth pattern based on monthly surveys for approximately 1.5 years. In addition, sensitivity and elasticity analyses were used to identify life stages with high sensitivity or elasticity that have the largest influence on population growth rate. We re-censused the populations 13 years after the first study and compared the structure of the populations to predictions based on the earlier census data. Effective population growth rates were similar to those expected except for one where the population went extinct. The prediction slightly (but not significantly) overestimated the actual population growth rates of some populations. Elasticity analysis revealed that the adult stage is critical in the life cycle. The observed stage distributions of the populations were not stable at the beginning of the survey and neither were they after 13 years. We suggest that this might be caused by external perturbations that result in unequal mortality between life stages and stochastic recruitment events. The ability of the matrices to predict population size approximately eight generations in the future is encouraging and warrants the continued use of these approaches for PVA.     

Short‐term Costs and Benefits of Habitat Complexity for a Territorial Fish

An increase in habitat complexity is thought to decrease visibility and the territory size of visually oriented animals. Hence, the addition of physical structure has been viewed as a useful restoration technique to increase the density of territorial species, particularly in stream fishes. However, a decrease in territory size may have a negative effect on the fitness of individual organisms. We attempted to quantify some of the positive and negative effects of increasing habitat structure on the behaviour and growth rate of wild young‐of‐the‐year (YOY) Atlantic salmon. Fish were exposed to one of two habitat treatments in mesh enclosures in Catamaran Brook, New Brunswick: a gravel substrate (low complexity) or a gravel substrate with boulders added (high complexity). Wild‐caught individuals were tagged, weighed and measured before being stocked at densities of 1·m^?2 for 7‐d trials. While fish from high‐complexity treatments benefited from lower rates of aggression, they also had lower foraging rates and smaller territories compared to those in low‐complexity treatments. Specific growth rate, however, did not differ significantly between treatments. While the addition of structure to a habitat may be beneficial at the population level in terms of an increase in population density, our results suggested that individual fish may pay some short‐term costs in these environments. Further research is needed to evaluate the longer term costs and benefits of adding structure to improve the habitat quality for stream salmonids.     

Experimental and demographic analyses of growth rate and sexual size dimorphism in a lizard, Sceloporus undulatus

Sexual size dimorphism (SSD) is a common phenomenon caused by a variety of environmental and genetic mechanisms in animals. In the current study, we investigate the demography of a population of eastern fence lizards ( Sceloporus undulatus ) to compare age structure and survivorship between the sexes, and we examine growth rates of juveniles under both natural and controlled laboratory conditions to elucidate causes of SSD in this species. Furthermore, using our laboratory growth data, we examine the heritability of juvenile growth rates. Our results show that SSD develops in the field before the end of the first year of age (before sexual maturity) because juvenile females grow more rapidly than juvenile males. In the laboratory environment, however, we observed no sexual difference in growth rates for lizards up to the size of maturity in the field. Thus, sexual differences in growth rate and subsequent development of SSD in this population are highly plastic and subject to strong proximal control. We found high levels of additive genetic variance for juvenile growth, indicating a strong potential for selection to operate on juvenile growth rates. Our results indicate that selection on juvenile growth rate could account for differences in growth among populations but would not necessarily contribute to SSD within our population due to the high plasticity in growth rate.     

Costs,benefits, and loss of vertically transmitted symbionts affect host population dynamics

The costs and benefits of symbiotic interactions may vary with host and symbiont ontogeny. Effects of symbionts at different stages of host development or on different host demographic rates do not contribute equally to fitness. Although rarely applied, a population dynamics approach that integrates over the host life cycle is therefore necessary for capturing the net costs or benefits and, thus, the mutualistic or parasitic nature of symbioses. Using the native, disturbance‐specialist grass Agrostis hyemalis, we asked how a symbiotic endophyte affected the population dynamics of its host and how imperfect vertical transmission influenced symbiont frequency in a late successional environment. A size‐structured integral projection model (IPM) parameterized with experimental field data showed that greater rates of individual growth and reproduction for endophyte‐symbiotic (E+) hosts outweighed their lower rates of survival, leading to a net positive effect of symbiosis on equilibrium plant population growth (slower rate of extinction). Given that populations under going successional transitions are unlikely to be at an equilibrium size structure, we also conducted transient analysis that showed an initial short‐term cost to endophyte symbiosis. We used a megamatrix approach to link E? and E+ IPMs via imperfect vertical transmission and found that this parameter strongly influenced the frequency of symbiosis via complex interactions with host demographic rates. Overall, our population dynamics approach improves the ability to characterize the outcome of symbiotic interactions, and results suggest that particular attention should be paid to interactions between the rate of vertical transmission and host demography.     

Population Dynamics of the Andean Lizard Anolis heterodermus: Fast‐slow Demographic Strategies in Fragmented Scrubland Landscapes

Habitat fragmentation and loss affect population stability and demographic processes, increasing the extinction risk of species. We studied Anolis heterodermus populations inhabiting large and small Andean scrubland patches in three fragmented landscapes in the Sabana de Bogotá (Colombia) to determine the effect of habitat fragmentation and loss on population dynamics. We used the capture‐mark‐recapture method and multistate models to estimate vital rates for each population. We estimated growth population rate and the most important processes that affect λ by elasticity analysis of vital rates. We tested the effects of habitat fragmentation and loss on vital rates of lizard populations. All six isolated populations showed a positive or an equilibrium growth rate (λ = 1), and the most important demographic process affecting λ was the growth to first reproduction. Populations from landscapes with less scrubland natural cover showed higher stasis of young adults. Populations in highly fragmented landscapes showed highest juvenile survival and growth population rates. Independent of the landscape's habitat configuration and connectivity, populations from larger scrubland patches showed low adult survivorship, but high transition rates. Populations varied from a slow strategy with low growth and delayed maturation in smaller patches to a fast strategy with high growth and early maturation in large patches. This variation was congruent with the fast‐slow continuum hypothesis and has serious implications for Andean lizard conservation and management strategies. We suggest that more stable lizard populations will be maintained if different management strategies are adopted according to patch area and habitat structure.     

Deer herbivory and habitat type influence long-term population dynamics of a rare wetland plant

Pinpointing the factors that alter the population viability of long-lived organisms, such as perennial plants, is especially useful for informing conservation management policies for threatened and endangered species. In this study, I used 4 years of demographic data on rare plant Polemonium vanbruntiae (Eastern Jacob’s ladder, Polemoniaceae) to determine how white-tailed deer herbivory and habitat type (wet meadow and forest seep) affect long-term population viability. I incorporated these factors into matrix population models to estimate the deterministic and stochastic growth rates (λ and λs, respectively), stable stage distribution (SSD), the reproductive value for each stage class, the cumulative probability of extinction, and the elasticity values for all vital rates under each browsing and habitat scenario. Population growth rates of P. vanbruntiae in wet meadow sites are expected to increase at a slightly faster rate than at forest seep sites. Herbivory significantly decreased the predicted population growth rate under stochastic conditions. However, P. vanbruntiae ramets are expected to increase in the future as the population growth rate (λ) > 1 under both “browse” and “no browse” scenarios, but deer herbivory increased the extinction risk to a detectable level. Deer preferentially browsed vegetative and reproductive adult ramets over yearlings and seedlings, and browsing significantly reduced fertility of reproductive ramets and increased the probability of stasis for small and large vegetative ramets. Browsing shifted the elasticity values of vital rates and changed the potential for younger life histories stages, such as seedlings, to change future population growth. Under herbivore pressure, survival and stasis of large vegetative ramets have the largest potential impact on future population growth. This study provides empirical evidence that white-tailed deer are an important ecological factor affecting long-term population dynamics of rare plant populations and offers management suggestions for remaining populations of P. vanbruntiae.     

Sexual size dimorphism in three North Sea gadoids

Existing biological data on whiting Merlangius merlangus, cod Gadus morhua and haddock Melanogrammus aeglefinus from a long‐term international survey were analysed to address sexual size dimorphism (SSD) and its effect on their ecology and management. Results show that SSD, with larger females of the same age as males, is a result of higher growth rates in females. A direct consequence of SSD is the pronounced length‐dependent female ratio that was found in all three gadoids in the North Sea. Female ratios of the three species changed from equality to female dominance at specific dominance transition lengths of c. 30, 35 and 60 cm for M. merlangus, G. morhua and M. aeglefinus, respectively. An analysis by area for M. merlangus also revealed length dependence of female ratios. SSD and length‐dependent female ratios under most circumstances are inseparable. Higher overall energy demand as well as a higher energy uptake rate must result from the observed SSD and dimorphism in growth rates. Potential processes related to feeding, locomotion and physiology are proposed that could balance the increased energy investment of females. Potential consequences of SSD and length dependency of female ratios are the reduction of the reproductive potential of a stock due to size‐selective fishing and biased assessment of the true size of the female spawning stock that could distort decisions in fisheries management.     

Predicting the evolution of sexual size dimorphism

11 , Evolution 34 : 292–305) equations for predicting the evolution of sexual size dimorphism (SSD) through frequency‐dependent sexual selection, and frequency‐independent natural selection, were tested against results obtained from a stochastic genetic simulation model. The SSD evolved faster than predicted, due to temporary increases in the genetic variance brought about by directional selection. Predictions for the magnitude of SSD at equilibrium were very accurate for weak sexual selection. With stronger sexual selection the total response was greater than predicted. Large changes in SSD can occur without significant long‐term change in the genetic correlation between the sexes. Our results suggest that genetic correlations constrain both the short‐term and long‐term evolution of SSD less than predicted by the Lande model.     

Transient Population Dynamics of Two Epiphytic Orchid Species after Hurricane Ivan: Implications for Management

Populations of epiphytic orchids in disturbance‐prone environments rarely reach stable‐stage equilibrium. We characterized the post‐disturbance, transient dynamics of two epiphytic orchids, Broughtonia cubensis, and the leafless Dendrophylax lindenii, comparing the following indices: reactivity/first‐time attenuation, maximal amplification/attenuation, and amplified/attenuated inertia. We also assessed the effects of reintroducing only seeds or only adults, by examining the elasticity of the inertia on the vital rates. For 2006–2010, the stochastic growth rate of D. lindenii was λ_s = 0.94, or a 6 percent decrease per annum. First‐time step attenuation indicates that in 1 year, the population could decrease by an additional 16 percent, and in the worst‐case scenario could decrease by almost half, relative to the stable‐stage distribution, in 10 years. Broughtonia cubensis had a λ_s = 1.03; reactivity and first‐time step attenuation indicates that in 1 year, the population should not change by more than 14 percent of the estimated stable‐stage distribution. However, the worst‐case scenario projected a reduction of 40 percent relative to the stable‐stage distribution within 8 years. A comparison of reintroduction strategies assessed by elasticity of the population momentum showed that adults performed better when relocated to new habitats.     

A matrix population model analysis for the tropical tree,Araucaria cunninghamii

The temporal stability of estimates of demographic behaviour for a sample population of the tropical rainforest gymnosperm Araucaria cunninghamii was analysed using a stage-classified (Lefkovitch) matrix model. Previously published life-table analyses, which used only 2 years of held data (1975–77), were compared with life-table analysis based on a further 5 years of field data for growth and survival (1977–82). The new analysis calculated the finite rate of natural increase, λ, as 1.009 ± 0.077. This value is closer to the theoretical value of 1.0 for a stable population than is the value calculated on the basis of only 2 years of field data (1.021 ± 0.093). However, the two estimates are not significantly different from each other or from a value of 1.0. Despite the similarity of estimates for λ, the life-table analysis based on 5 years of data showed some marked differences from the earlier analysis. Revised growth and survival rates imply a slower progression to reproductive maturity and shorter reproductive life for A. cunninghamii. The predicted stable stage distribution (SSD) showed a better fit to the initial stage distribution (ISD), and bulges in the frequency distribution for large trees can be explained by the varying rates at which individuals grow from one stage to the next. The relative contributions of survival, growth and fecundity to the observed population growth rate (elasticity) remained similar for both analyses. Survival rate contributes most significantly to the achieved population growth rate, and this appears typical of long-lived plant species. However, the pattern of elasticities across size-classes changed for the new analysis and identified different critical life history stages from those recorded previously. Elasticity is proposed as a measure for classifying species using the competitive (C), stress-tolerant (S) and ruderal (R) model of plant strategies.     

Changes in the genetic structure of Atlantic salmon populations over four decades reveal substantial impacts of stocking and potential resiliency

While the stocking of captive‐bred fish has been occurring for decades and has had substantial immediate genetic and evolutionary impacts on wild populations, its long‐term consequences have only been weakly investigated. Here, we conducted a spatiotemporal analysis of 1428 Atlantic salmon sampled from 1965 to 2006 in 25 populations throughout France to investigate the influence of stocking on the neutral genetic structure in wild Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations. On the basis of the analysis of 11 microsatellite loci, we found that the overall genetic structure among populations dramatically decreased over the period studied. Admixture rates among populations were highly variable, ranging from a nearly undetectable contribution from donor stocks to total replacement of the native gene pool, suggesting extremely variable impacts of stocking. Depending on population, admixture rates either increased, remained stable, or decreased in samples collected between 1998 and 2006 compared to samples from 1965 to 1987, suggesting either rising, long‐lasting or short‐term impacts of stocking. We discuss the potential mechanisms contributing to this variability, including the reduced fitness of stocked fish and persistence of wild locally adapted individuals.     

Matrix dimensionality in demographic analyses of plants: when to use smaller matrices?

Large data requirements may restrict the use of matrix population models for analysis of population dynamics. Less data are required for a small population matrix than for a large matrix because the smaller matrix contains fewer vital rates that need to be estimated. Smaller matrices, however, tend to have a lower precision. Based on 37 plant species, we studied the effects of matrix dimensionality on the long-term population growth rate (λ) and the elasticity of λ in herbaceous and woody species. We found that when matrix dimensionality was reduced, changes in λ were significantly larger for herbaceous than for woody species. In many cases, λ of woody species remained virtually the same after a substantial decrease in matrix dimensionality, suggesting that woody species are less susceptible to matrix dimensionality. We demonstrated that when adjacent stages of a transition matrix are combined, the magnitude of a change in λ depends on the distance of the population structure from a stable stage distribution, and the difference in the combined vital rates weighted by their reproductive values. Elasticity of λ to survival and fecundity usually increased, whereas elasticity to growth decreased both in herbaceous and in woody species with reduced matrix dimensionality. Changes in elasticity values tended to be larger for herbaceous than for woody species. Our results show that by reducing matrix dimensionality, the amount of demographic data can be decreased to save time, money, and field effort. We recommend the use of a small matrix dimensionality especially when a limited amount of data is available, and for slow-growing species having a simple matrix structure that mainly consists of stasis and growth to the next stage.     

Proximate causes of sexual size dimorphism in Colorado pikeminnow, a long‐lived cyprinid

Evidence for sexual size dimorphism (SSD) and its possible causes were examined in the endangered Colorado pikeminnow Ptychocheilus lucius, a large, piscivorous, cyprinid endemic to the Colorado River system of North America. Individuals representing 18–24% of the upper Colorado River population were captured, measured, sexed and released in 1999 and 2000. Differing male and female total length‐(L_T) frequency distributions revealed SSD with females having greater mean and maximum sizes than males. Although both sexes exhibit indeterminate post‐maturity growth, growth trajectories differed. The point of trajectory divergence was not established, but slowed male growth might coincide with the onset of maturation. Differing growth rate was the dominant proximate cause of SSD, accounting for an estimated 61% of the observed difference in mean adult L_T. The degree of SSD in adults, however, was also related to two other factors. Evidence suggests males become sexually active at a smaller size and earlier age than females; a 2 year difference, suggested here, accounted for an estimated 12% of the between‐sex difference in mean adult L_T. Temporal shifts in gender‐specific survival accounted for an additional 27% of the observed between‐sex difference in mean adult L_T. Estimated age distributions indicated a higher number of older females than older males and more younger males than younger females in the population during the period of sampling. Dissimilarity of age distributions was an unexpected result because the male : female population sex ratio was 1 : 1 and estimates of long‐term annual survival for adult males and females were equal (88%). Future assessments of SSD in this population are apt to vary depending on the prior history of short‐term gender‐specific survival. Without recognizing SSD, non‐gender‐specific growth curves overestimate mean age of adult females and underestimate mean age of adult males of given L_T. Assuming age 8 years for first reproduction in males and age 10 years for females, the adult male : female ratio was estimated as 1·1 : 1 and mean adult age, or generation time, was estimated as 16·4 years for males and 18·4 years for females.     

Seasonal variation in the population growth rate of a dominant zooplankter: what determines its population dynamics?

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Population recovery of alien black rats Rattus rattus: A test of reinvasion theory

Reinvasion of pest animals after incomplete control is a major challenge for invasive species management, yet little is known about the behavioural and demographic categories of reinvaders or the mechanisms that drive population‐level responses to control. To understand the fine‐scale mechanisms of reinvasion, we examined changes in demography, movements and activity patterns of reinvading alien black rats Rattus rattus in the short (4 weeks) and longer term (3 months) following localised experimental pest removal. Using recovery and invasion theory, we tested three hypothesised mechanisms of reinvasion: the ‘in situ effect’, the ‘trickle effect’ and the ‘vacuum effect’. We created space for reinvasion by removing black rats from the core of replicate 1‐ha plots (short‐term experiment) and later by removing animals from the entire plot (longer‐term experiment). Reinvaders were characterised as dispersing juveniles, floaters or neighbours. Radio‐tracking quantified home range changes for adjacent resident animals (short‐term experiment only). In the short term, there was no net influx of rats after targeted removal. Radio‐tracked residents’ movements were highly variable and displayed no directional changes after nearby conspecifics were removed. However, in the longer term, removal led to slow population recovery through a mix of reinvading floaters, dispersing juveniles and shifting residents. These responses best support a hypothesis of reinvasion through a trickle effect, with rats being extremely mobile and having a high degree of population turnover, even in untreated sites. Our findings provide the first test of reinvasion theory at a small scale, demonstrating the importance of understanding the differing categories of reinvaders and mechanisms of reinvasion after population control. These mechanisms drive the rate of population recovery and, in turn, should help determine which strategy of pest control should be used, and the frequency with which they are implemented, in order to slow the recovery of pest populations.     

Assessing Short‐ and Long‐Term Repeatability and Stability of Personality in Captive Zebra Finches Using Longitudinal Data

Assessing behavioural consistency is crucial to understand the evolution of personality traits. In the present study, we examined the short‐ and long‐term repeatability and stability of two unrelated personality traits – exploratory tendencies and struggling rate – using captive female zebra finches ( Taeniopygia guttata). We performed two experimental sessions of behavioural tests with a 7‐mo interval, which represents up to one quarter of a zebra finch's life expectancy. We showed that, overall, exploratory tendencies and struggling rate were significantly repeatable in the short term. However, only exploratory tendencies were repeatable in the long term. We found interindividual differences in short‐term stability of exploratory tendencies, but not struggling rate, providing evidence for differences in intraindividual variability. In the long term, struggling rate significantly decreased between the two experimental sessions, whereas exploratory tendencies remained stable. Finally, the amount of interindividual variation measured at both sessions did not differ. Our results suggest that short‐ and long‐term repeatability and stability of personality may vary between individuals, depending on the behavioural trait under scrutiny. As a consequence, deducing personality from measures realized earlier in a subject's life should be performed with caution. We discuss the implications of inter‐ and intraindividual variation in personality consistency on individual fitness.     

Comparative sensitivity analysis of stable stage structures and reproductive values

New formulas for deriving the sensitivities of stable stage structures and reproductive values to changes in vital rates are presented. They enable comparison of the sensities to changes of different elements in the projection matrix; in other words, comparison of partial derivatives of the eigenvectors. These kinds of sensitivities can be used in applied problems such as an analysis of the effect of harvesting on the population structure. However, in this paper, we examine the application of the sensitivities in a more general ecological context. We investigate why the stable stage structure of the mustard aphid,Lipaphis erysimi, changes very little in the temperature interval 10–30°C. The sensitivities of the stable stage structure at 15°C and 25°C were derived. The character of the sensitivites were the same in both temperatures although the stage structure was more sensitive to changes at 15°C than at 25°C. The sensitivity analysis also revealed that the temperature variation results in changes in fecundity and developmental rate that have a counteractive effect on the population structure.     

Density-Dependent Harvest Modeling for the Eastern Wild Turkey

Abstract Many current wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) harvest models assume density-independent population dynamics. We developed an alternative model incorporating both nonlinear density-dependence and stochastic density-independent effects on wild turkey populations. We examined model sensitivity to parameter changes in 5% increments and determined mean spring and fall harvests and their variability in the short term (3 yr) and long term (10 yr) from proportional harvesting under these conditions. In the long term, population growth rates were most sensitive to poult:female ratios and the form of density dependence. The nonlinear density-dependent effect produced a population that maximized yield at 40% carrying capacity. The model indicated that a spring or fall proportional harvest could be maximized for fall harvest rates between 0% and 13% of the population, assuming a 15% spring male harvest and 5% spring illegal female kill. Combined spring and fall harvests could be maximized at a 9% fall harvest, under the same assumptions. Variability in population growth and harvest rates increased uncertainty in spring and fall harvests and the probability of overharvesting annual yield, with growth rate variation having the strongest effect. Model simulations suggested fall harvest rates should be conservative (≤9%) for most management strategies.