Population Dynamics of Owned,Free-Roaming Dogs: Implications for Rabies Control

Background

Rabies is a serious yet neglected public health threat in resource-limited communities in Africa, where the virus is maintained in populations of owned, free-roaming domestic dogs. Rabies elimination can be achieved through the mass vaccination of dogs, but maintaining the critical threshold of vaccination coverage for herd immunity in these populations is hampered by their rapid turnover. Knowledge of the population dynamics of free-roaming dog populations can inform effective planning and implementation of mass dog vaccination campaigns to control rabies.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We implemented a health and demographic surveillance system in dogs that monitored the entire owned dog population within a defined geographic area in a community in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. We quantified demographic rates over a 24-month period, from 1^st January 2012 through 1^st January 2014, and assessed their implications for rabies control by simulating the decline in vaccination coverage over time. During this period, the population declined by 10%. Annual population growth rates were +18.6% in 2012 and -24.5% in 2013. Crude annual birth rates (per 1,000 dog-years of observation) were 451 in 2012 and 313 in 2013. Crude annual death rates were 406 in 2012 and 568 in 2013. Females suffered a significantly higher mortality rate in 2013 than males (mortality rate ratio [MRR] = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.28–1.85). In the age class 0–3 months, the mortality rate of dogs vaccinated against rabies was significantly lower than that of unvaccinated dogs (2012: MRR = 0.11, 95% CI = 0.05–0.21; 2013: MRR = 0.31, 95% CI = 0.11–0.69). The results of the simulation showed that achieving a 70% vaccination coverage during annual campaigns would maintain coverage above the critical threshold for at least 12 months.

Conclusions and Significance

Our findings provide an evidence base for the World Health Organization’s empirically-derived target of 70% vaccination coverage during annual campaigns. Achieving this will be effective even in highly dynamic populations with extremely high growth rates and rapid turnover. This increases confidence in the feasibility of dog rabies elimination in Africa through mass vaccination.     

Domestic dog demographics and estimates of canine vaccination coverage in a rural area of Zambia for the elimination of rabies

BackgroundAn estimated 75% or more of the human rabies cases in Africa occur in rural settings, which underscores the importance of rabies control in these areas. Understanding dog demographics can help design strategies for rabies control and plan and conduct canine mass vaccination campaigns effectively in African countries.Methodology/Principal findingsA cross-sectional survey was conducted to investigate domestic dog demographics in Kalambabakali, in the rural Mazabuka District of Zambia. The population of ownerless dogs and the total achievable vaccination coverage among the total dog population was estimated using the capture-recapture-based Bayesian model by conducting a canine mass vaccination campaign. This study revealed that 29% of the domestic dog population was under one year old, and 57.7% of those were under three months old and thus were not eligible for the canine rabies vaccination in Zambia. The population growth was estimated at 15% per annum based on the cross-sectional household survey. The population of ownerless dogs was estimated to be small, with an ownerless-to-owned-dog ratio of 0.01–0.06 in the target zones. The achieved overall vaccination coverage from the first mass vaccination was estimated 19.8–51.6%. This low coverage was principally attributed to the owners’ lack of information, unavailability, and dog-handling difficulties. The follow-up mass vaccination campaign achieved an overall coverage of 54.8–76.2%.Conclusions/SignificanceThis paper indicates the potential for controlling canine rabies through mass vaccination in rural Zambia. Rabies education and responsible dog ownership are required to achieve high and sustainable vaccination coverage. Our findings also propose including puppies below three months old in the target population for rabies vaccination and emphasize that securing an annual enforcement of canine mass vaccination that reaches 70% coverage in the dog population is necessary to maintain protective herd immunity.     

Oral rabies vaccination of dogs—Experiences from a field trial in Namibia

Dog-mediated rabies is responsible for tens of thousands of human deaths annually, and in resource-constrained settings, vaccinating dogs to control the disease at source remains challenging. Currently, rabies elimination efforts rely on mass dog vaccination by the parenteral route. To increase the herd immunity, free-roaming and stray dogs need to be specifically addressed in the vaccination campaigns, with oral rabies vaccination (ORV) of dogs being a possible solution. Using a third-generation vaccine and a standardized egg-flavoured bait, bait uptake and vaccination was assessed under field conditions in Namibia. During this trial, both veterinary staff as well as dog owners expressed their appreciation to this approach of vaccination. Of 1,115 dogs offered a bait, 90% (n = 1,006, 95%CI:91–94) consumed the bait and 72.9% (n = 813, 95%CI:70.2–75.4) of dogs were assessed as being vaccinated by direct observation, while for 11.7% (n = 130, 95%CI:9.9–17.7) the status was recorded as “unkown” and 15.4% (n = 172, 95%CI: 13.4–17.7) were considered as being not vaccinated. Smaller dogs and dogs offered a bait with multiple other dogs had significantly higher vaccination rates, while other factors, e.g. sex, confinement status and time had no influence. The favorable results of this first large-scale field trial further support the strategic integration of ORV into dog rabies control programmes. Given the acceptance of the egg-flavored bait under various settings worldwide, ORV of dogs could become a game-changer in countries, where control strategies using parenteral vaccination alone failed to reach sufficient vaccination coverage in the dog population.     

Owned and Unowned Dog Population Estimation,Dog Management and Dog Bites to Inform Rabies Prevention and Response on Lombok Island,Indonesia

Although Indonesia has been rabies-infected since at least the 1880s, some islands remain rabies-free, such as Lombok. However, due to its adjacency to rabies-infected islands such as Bali and Flores, there is considerable risk of a rabies incursion. As part of a rabies risk assessment project, surveys were conducted to estimate the size of the dog population and to describe dog management practices of households belonging to different ethnic groups. A photographic-recapture method was employed and the number of unowned dogs was estimated. A total of 400 dog owning households were interviewed, 300 at an urban site and 100 at a rural site. The majority of the interviewed households belonged to the Balinese ethnic group. Owned dogs were more likely male, and non-pedigree or local breed. These households kept their dogs either fully restricted, semi-free roaming or free-roaming but full restriction was reported only at the urban site. Dog bite cases were reported to be higher at the urban site, and commonly affected children/young adults to 20 years old and males. A higher number of unowned dogs was observed at the urban site than at the rural site. Data generated within these surveys can inform rabies risk assessment models to quantify the probability of rabies being released into Lombok and resulting in the infection of the local dog population. The information gained is critical for efforts to educate dog owners about rabies, as a component of preparedness to prevent the establishment of rabies should an incursion occur.     

Application of the GARC Data Logger—a custom-developed data collection device—to capture and monitor mass dog vaccination campaigns in Namibia

Domestic dogs are responsible for 99% of all cases of human rabies and thus, mass dog vaccination has been demonstrated to be the most effective approach towards the elimination of dog-mediated human rabies. Namibia demonstrated the feasibility of this approach by applying government-led strategic rabies vaccination campaigns to reduce both human and dog rabies incidences in the Northern Communal Areas of Namibia since 2016. The lessons learnt using paper-based form for data capturing and management of mass dog vaccination campaign during the pilot and roll out phase of the project (2016–2018) led to the implementation of a simple and accurate data collection tool in the second phase (2019–2022) of the rabies elimination program. In this paper, we describe the implementation of such custom-developed vaccination tracking device, i.e. the Global Alliance for Rabies Control (GARC) Data Logger (GDL), and the integration of the collected data into a website-based rabies surveillance system (Rabies Epidemiological Bulletin—REB) during 2019 and 2020 campaigns. A total of 10,037 dogs and 520 cats were vaccinated during the 2019 campaign and 13,219 dogs and 1,044 cats during the 2020 campaign. The vaccination data were recorded with the GDL and visualized via REB. Subsequent GIS-analysis using gridded population data revealed a suboptimal vaccination coverage in the great majority of grid cells (82%) with a vaccination coverage below 50%. Spatial regression analysis identified the number of schools, estimated human density, and adult dog population were associated with the vaccination performance. However, there was an inverse correlation to human densities. Nonetheless, the use of the GDL improved data capturing and monitoring capacity of the campaign, enabling the Namibian government to improve strategies for the vaccination of at-risk areas towards achieving adequate vaccination coverage which would effectively break the transmission of rabies.     

Achieving Population-Level Immunity to Rabies in Free-Roaming Dogs in Africa and Asia

Canine rabies can be effectively controlled by vaccination with readily available, high-quality vaccines. These vaccines should provide protection from challenge in healthy dogs, for the claimed period, for duration of immunity, which is often two or three years. It has been suggested that, in free-roaming dog populations where rabies is endemic, vaccine-induced protection may be compromised by immuno-suppression through malnutrition, infection and other stressors. This may reduce the proportion of dogs that seroconvert to the vaccine during vaccination campaigns and the duration of immunity of those dogs that seroconvert. Vaccination coverage may also be limited through insufficient vaccine delivery during vaccination campaigns and the loss of vaccinated individuals from populations through demographic processes. This is the first longitudinal study to evaluate temporal variations in rabies vaccine-induced serological responses, and factors associated with these variations, at the individual level in previously unvaccinated free-roaming dog populations. Individual-level serological and health-based data were collected from three cohorts of dogs in regions where rabies is endemic, one in South Africa and two in Indonesia. We found that the vast majority of dogs seroconverted to the vaccine; however, there was considerable variation in titres, partly attributable to illness and lactation at the time of vaccination. Furthermore, >70% of the dogs were vaccinated through community engagement and door-to-door vaccine delivery, even in Indonesia where the majority of the dogs needed to be caught by net on successive occasions for repeat blood sampling and vaccination. This demonstrates the feasibility of achieving population-level immunity in free-roaming dog populations in rabies-endemic regions. However, attrition of immune individuals through demographic processes and waning immunity necessitates repeat vaccination of populations within at least two years to ensure communities are protected from rabies. These findings support annual mass vaccination campaigns as the most effective means to control canine rabies.     

Rabies epidemiology,prevention and control in Nigeria: Scoping progress towards elimination

BackgroundHuman rabies remains a significant public health problem in Africa with outbreaks reported in most countries. In Nigeria–the most populous country in Africa–rabies causes a significant public health burden partly due to perennial obstacles to implementing a national prevention and control program.MethodsWe conducted a scoping review using standard Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines to identify and select published articles from Nigeria during 1978–2020 reporting on rabies virus infections (human, canine, livestock, and wildlife), canine bites, knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) surveys on rabies and canine ecology studies. We extracted information on study location, year and additional details of each study such as rabies prevalence, general characteristics of offending dogs, dog vaccination status and health-seeking behaviours.FindingsBetween 1978 and 2020, 90 published articles met our inclusion criteria. The prevalence of rabies virus antigen detection varied between 3% and 28%, with more studies in the north. Most bites were unprovoked from dog bite studies (36.4%-97%), by dogs with low vaccination rates (12–38%). A more significant proportion of biting dogs were owned (31–90%). Laboratory confirmation for biting was available for only a small proportion of studies (6%; n = 2/32). Of the dogs surveyed during ecology studies, indigenous dogs accounted for the majority (62–98%), used mostly for security purposes (52–98%), with the vaccination rate between 15% and 38% in most states. Studies conducted in areas distant from rabies diagnostic facilities accounted for more human rabies cases and fewer dog rabies cases.ConclusionSignificant improvements are necessary to achieve the elimination of human rabies mediated via dogs by 2030.     

Scaling-up the delivery of dog vaccination campaigns against rabies in Tanzania

An increasing number of countries are committing to meet the global target to eliminate human deaths from dog-mediated rabies by 2030. Mass dog vaccination is central to this strategy. To interrupt rabies transmission from dogs to humans, the World Health Organization recommends that vaccination campaigns should be carried out every year in all dog-owning communities vaccinating 70% of their susceptible dogs. Monitoring and evaluation of dog vaccination campaigns are needed to measure progress towards elimination. In this study, we measured the delivery performance of large-scale vaccination campaigns implemented in 25 districts in south-east Tanzania from 2010 until 2017. We used regression modelling to infer the factors associated with, and potentially influencing the successful delivery of vaccination campaigns. During 2010–2017, five rounds of vaccination campaigns were carried out, vaccinating in total 349,513 dogs in 2,066 administrative vaccination units (rural villages or urban wards). Progressively more dogs were vaccinated over the successive campaigns. The campaigns did not reach all vaccination units each year, with only 16–28% of districts achieving 100% campaign completeness (where all units were vaccinated). During 2013–2017 when vaccination coverage was monitored, approximately 20% of vaccination units achieved the recommended 70% coverage, with average coverage around 50%. Campaigns were also not completed at annual intervals, with the longest interval between campaigns being 27 months. Our analysis revealed that districts with higher budgets generally achieved higher completeness, with a twofold difference in district budget increasing the odds of a vaccination unit being reached by a campaign by slightly more than twofold (OR: 2.29; 95% CI: 1.69–3.09). However, higher budgets did not necessarily result in higher coverage within vaccination units that were reached. We recommend national programs regularly monitor and evaluate the performance of their vaccination campaigns, so as to identify factors hindering their effective delivery and to guide remedial action.     

Loss of binding antibodies against rabies in a vaccinated dog population in Flores Island,Indonesia

Effective parenteral vaccines are available to control rabies in dogs. While such vaccines are successfully used worldwide, the period between vaccine boosters required to guarantee protection of the population against rabies varies between vaccines and populations. In Flores Island, Indonesia, internationally and locally produced rabies vaccines are used during annual vaccination campaigns of predominantly free-roaming owned domestic dogs. The study objective was to identify the duration of the presence and factors associated with the loss of adequate level of binding antibodies (≥0.5 EU/ml) following rabies vaccination in a domestic dog population on Flores Island. A total of 171 dogs that developed an antibody titre higher or equal to 0.5 EU/ml 30 days after vaccination (D30), were repeatedly sampled at day 90, 180, 270, and 360 after vaccination. On the day of vaccination (D0), an interview was performed with dog owners to collect information on dog characteristics (age, sex, body condition score (BCS)), history of rabies vaccination, kind of daily food, frequency of feeding, and origin of the dog. Serum samples were collected and the level of antibodies was quantitatively assessed using ELISA tests. Dogs were categorized as having an adequate level of binding antibodies (≥0.5 EU/ml) or inadequate level of binding antibodies (<0.5 EU/ml) at each time points examined. A total of 115, 72, 23, and 31 dogs were sampled at D90, D180, D270, and D360, respectively, with the highest proportion of antibodies ≥ 0.5 EU/ml (58%, 95% CI, 49–67%) at D90, which reduced gradually until D360 (35%, 95% CI, 19–52%). Multivariable logistic regression models showed that loss of adequate level of binding antibodies is significantly associated with dogs having no history of vaccination or vaccination applied more than 12 months before D0, being less than 12 months of age, and having a poor BCS. These results highlight the importance of BCS regarding the immune response duration and provide insights into frequency of vaccination campaigns required for the internationally available vaccine used on Flores Island. For dogs without vaccination history or vaccination being applied more than 12 months before D0, a booster is recommended within 3 months (a largest drop of antibodies was detected within the first 90 days) after the first vaccination to guarantee measurable protection of the population that lasts at least for one year.     

Review on Dog Rabies Vaccination Coverage in Africa: A Question of Dog Accessibility or Cost Recovery?

Background

Rabies still poses a significant human health problem throughout most of Africa, where the majority of the human cases results from dog bites. Mass dog vaccination is considered to be the most effective method to prevent rabies in humans. Our objective was to systematically review research articles on dog rabies parenteral vaccination coverage in Africa in relation to dog accessibility and vaccination cost recovery arrangement (i.e.free of charge or owner charged).

Methodology/Principal Findings

A systematic literature search was made in the databases of CAB abstracts (EBSCOhost and OvidSP), Scopus, Web of Science, PubMed, Medline (EBSCOhost and OvidSP) and AJOL (African Journal Online) for peer reviewed articles on 1) rabies control, 2) dog rabies vaccination coverage and 3) dog demography in Africa. Identified articles were subsequently screened and selected using predefined selection criteria like year of publication (viz. ≥ 1990), type of study (cross sectional), objective(s) of the study (i.e. vaccination coverage rates, dog demographics and financial arrangements of vaccination costs), language of publication (English) and geographical focus (Africa). The selection process resulted in sixteen peer reviewed articles which were used to review dog demography and dog ownership status, and dog rabies vaccination coverage throughout Africa. The main review findings indicate that 1) the majority (up to 98.1%) of dogs in African countries are owned (and as such accessible), 2) puppies younger than 3 months of age constitute a considerable proportion (up to 30%) of the dog population and 3) male dogs are dominating in numbers (up to 3.6 times the female dog population). Dog rabies parenteral vaccination coverage was compared between “free of charge” and “owner charged” vaccination schemes by the technique of Meta-analysis. Results indicate that the rabies vaccination coverage following a free of charge vaccination scheme (68%) is closer to the World Health Organization recommended coverage rate (70%) than the achieved coverage rate in owner-charged dog rabies vaccination schemes (18%).

Conclusions/Significance

Most dogs in Africa are owned and accessible for parenteral vaccination against rabies if the campaign is performed “free of charge”.     

Designing Programs for Eliminating Canine Rabies from Islands: Bali,Indonesia as a Case Study

Background

Canine rabies is one of the most important and feared zoonotic diseases in the world. In some regions rabies elimination is being successfully coordinated, whereas in others rabies is endemic and continues to spread to uninfected areas. As epidemics emerge, both accepted and contentious control methods are used, as questions remain over the most effective strategy to eliminate rabies. The Indonesian island of Bali was rabies-free until 2008 when an epidemic in domestic dogs began, resulting in the deaths of over 100 people. Here we analyze data from the epidemic and compare the effectiveness of control methods at eliminating rabies.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Using data from Bali, we estimated the basic reproductive number, R ₀, of rabies in dogs, to be ∼1·2, almost identical to that obtained in ten–fold less dense dog populations and suggesting rabies will not be effectively controlled by reducing dog density. We then developed a model to compare options for mass dog vaccination. Comprehensive high coverage was the single most important factor for achieving elimination, with omission of even small areas (<0.5% of the dog population) jeopardizing success. Parameterizing the model with data from the 2010 and 2011 vaccination campaigns, we show that a comprehensive high coverage campaign in 2012 would likely result in elimination, saving ∼550 human lives and ∼$15 million in prophylaxis costs over the next ten years.

Conclusions/Significance

The elimination of rabies from Bali will not be achieved through achievable reductions in dog density. To ensure elimination, concerted high coverage, repeated, mass dog vaccination campaigns are necessary and the cooperation of all regions of the island is critical. Momentum is building towards development of a strategy for the global elimination of canine rabies, and this study offers valuable new insights about the dynamics and control of this disease, with immediate practical relevance.     

Population survey and management strategies of free-roaming dogs (Canis familiaris) on Saipan,Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands

The island of Saipan, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, is populated by free-roaming dogs who were introduced during World War II. The local nonhuman animal control agency manages this population; however, the demographic information and public perception of this population remain unknown. To characterize the free-roaming dog population, an island-wide survey on Saipan was conducted. Photographic, mark-recapture data were used to estimate the population size per land type. Age, sex, sociality, and behavior per land type were documented and associations between these variables were tested using G tests. The effects of land type and urbanization on dog abundance were also analyzed. Lastly, in-person surveys provided data on the public perception of free-roaming dogs. Four main findings are reported: (a) The population size of free-roaming dogs on Saipan is estimated at 21,316. (b) Most dogs encountered were sentry adults. (c) Dog abundance increased with urbanization level and was highest in urban areas. (d) The public perceived free-roaming dogs as a health concern and suggested the implementation of leash laws and sheltering initiatives. This article discusses potential and existing population management strategies for free-roaming dogs on Saipan.     

Dog Demography,Animal Bite Management and Rabies Knowledge-Attitude and Practices in the Awash Basin,Eastern Ethiopia

Background

Rabies is a viral zoonosis that has been described in limited numbers of studies in Ethiopia at large and among pastoralists in particular. This study assessed dog demography, bite wound prevalence and management, potential risk factors of disease transmission and knowledge attitude practice towards rabies among urban dwellers, pastoralists and health workers in Awash, Eastern Ethiopia.

Methodology

Information was collected by means of structured questionnaires and interviews and through medical and official records from the Agricultural and Health bureaus.

Principal Findings

Respondents totaled 539 (471 urban, 49 pastoralists, 19 medical). Dog(s) were owned in 33% urban and 75.5% pastoralist households respectively. Mean dog number per dog owning household was 1.50 (95%CI: 1.40–1.60) in urban and 2.05 (95%CI: 1.51–2.60) in pastoralists sites. Human Dog Ratio in Metahara was 4.7:1. No bite wounds records were kept in medical facilities, where staff recalled around 100 bites per year, 2/3 being in adults. Over 90% of the respondents claimed knowing rabies but up to 79.2% pastoralist did not know how dogs acquire the disease; 37.3% urban and 23% pastoralist did not know the symptoms of rabies in dogs; 36% urban and 44% pastoralists did not know rabies symptoms in people. Eighty percent of pastoralists did not know that the disease was fatal in people if untreated. Over half (58.7%) of pastoralist respondents go to traditional healers if bitten, despite a health extension worker program in place in the study area. Knowledge gaps were also shown amidst medical staff.

Conclusions

The study highlighted overall poor disease knowledge, severe under-reporting of human rabies cases, lack of record keeping and poor collaboration between the public and animal health sectors and communities in rabies control.     

Could a rabies incursion spread in the northern Australian dingo population? Development of a spatial stochastic simulation model

Australia, home to the iconic dingo, is currently free from canine rabies. However northern Australia, including Indigenous communities with large free-roaming domestic dog populations, is at increased risk of rabies incursion from nearby Indonesia. We developed a novel agent-based stochastic spatial rabies spread model to evaluate the potential spread of rabies within the dingo population of the Northern Peninsula Area (NPA) region of northern Australia. The model incorporated spatio-temporal features specific to this host-environment system, including landscape heterogeneity, demographic fluctuations, dispersal movements and dingo ecological parameters—such as home range size and density—derived from NPA field studies. Rabies spread between dingo packs in nearly 60% of simulations. In such situations rabies would affect a median of 22 dingoes (approximately 14% of the population; 2.5–97.5 percentiles: 2–101 dingoes) within the study area which covered 1,131 km², and spread 0.52 km/week for 191 days. Larger outbreaks occurred in scenarios in which an incursion was introduced during the dry season (vs. wet season), and close to communities (vs. areas with high risk of interaction between dingoes and hunting community dogs). Sensitivity analyses revealed that home range size and duration of infectious clinical period contributed most to the variance of outputs. Although conditions in the NPA would most likely not support a sustained propagation of the disease in the dingo population, due to the predicted number of infected dingoes following a rabies incursion and the proximity of Indigenous communities to dingo habitat, we conclude that the risk for human transmission could be substantial.     

Dog bites in humans and estimating human rabies mortality in rabies endemic areas of Bhutan

Background

Dog bites in humans are a public health problem worldwide. The issues of increasing stray dog populations, rabies outbreaks, and the risk of dogs biting humans have been frequently reported by the media in Bhutan. This study aimed to estimate the bite incidence and identify the risk factors for dog bites in humans, and to estimate human deaths from rabies in rabies endemic south Bhutan.

Methods

A hospital-based questionnaire survey was conducted during 2009–2010 among dog bites victims who visited three hospitals in Bhutan for anti-rabies vaccine injection. Decision tree modeling was used to estimate human deaths from rabies following dog bite injuries in two rabies endemic areas of south Bhutan.

Results

Three hundred and twenty four dog bite victims were interviewed. The annual incidence of dog bites differed between the hospital catchment areas: 869.8 (95% CI: 722.8–1022.5), 293.8 (240–358.2) and 284.8 (251.2–323) per 100,000 people in Gelephu, Phuentsholing and Thimphu, respectively. Males (62%) were more at risk than females (P<0.001). Children aged 5–9 years were bitten more than other age groups. The majority of victims (71%) were bitten by stray dogs. No direct fatal injury was reported. In two hospital areas (Gelephu and Phuentsholing) in south Bhutan the annual incidence of death from rabies was 3.14 (95% CI: 1.57–6.29) per 100,000 population. The decision tree model predicted an equivalent annual incidence of 4.67 (95% CI: 2.53–7.53) deaths/100,000 population at risk. In the absence of post exposure prophylaxis, the model predicted 19.24 (95% CI: 13.69–25.14) deaths/year in these two areas.

Conclusions

Increased educational awareness of people about the risk of dog bites and rabies is necessary, particularly for children in rabies endemic areas of Bhutan.     

Development of a Model For Estimating the Size and Dynamics of the Pet Dog Population

Abstract

A conceptual model was developed to describe the dynamics of the pet dog population. The model synthesizes existing data collected for a variety of purposes to estimate the size of the various components of the pet dog population in Washington and Iowa during 1991. The total population mortality rate was estimated as 12.4% per year. Animal shelters in Washington and Iowa handled 7.6% and euthanized 4.0% of the dog population in those two states. When these estimates were extrapolated to the entire U.S. dog population, the model predicted that the total annual turnover in owned dogs was 14.7%, or 7.71 million dogs, that 4 million dogs were handled by animal shelters, and that 2.1 million were euthanized. It was also estimated that 79% of all female dogs were spayed, that household breeding could be attributed to less than one-fifth (18.7%) of the female dogs in the reproductive pool, and that the number of owners contributing to total dog population turnover through failure to retain their dog (103,453) was approximately three times the number of owners who allowed their female dogs to be bred (32,513).     

Perception of canine rabies among pupils under 15 years in Kwara State,North Central Nigeria

Rabies is an endemic, highly fatal, and vaccine-preventable disease with severe socio-economic implications. Most (99%) human rabies cases are transmitted through dog bites. Children under 15 years account for 40% of all dog bite victims and 35–50% of all rabies deaths. Rabies awareness among this vulnerable group is critical to rabies prevention. However, there is a paucity of data on rabies awareness among pupils under 15. Hence, this study assessed the awareness and attitude of pupils under 15 years towards canine rabies in Kwara state in Nigeria. The study was conducted as a cross-sectional survey of 1,388 pupils across the state using a structured questionnaire that was administered as a one-on-one interview using the Open Data Kit on Android phones in December 2019. Of the 1388 pupils included in this study, only 21.7% (n = 301) of them were aware of rabies. The mean rabies score was 1.7±0.8 and only 29.2% (n = 88/301) of the pupils had adequate knowledge of canine rabies. The dog ownership rate was 18.7% (n = 259) with an average of 1.93 dogs per household. Approximately 5% (n = 66) of the pupils have been previously bitten by a dog. One-third of the dog bite victims (35%, n = 23/66) were managed and treated at home and only 12% (n = 8/66) were treated in a health facility. The result of the multivariable logistic regression showed that students aged between 13–15 years were more likely (OR: 1.93; 95% CI: 0.72–3.01; p < 0.001) to have adequate knowledge of rabies than the younger pupils. Similarly, pupils that have dogs in their households (OR: 2.09; 95%CI: 1.49–2.75; p < 0.001) and those that reside in Kwara South (OR:1.78 95% CI:1.29, 2.44; p < 0.001) were more likely to be aware and have adequate knowledge of canine rabies respectively. Finally, Pupils from non-dog-owning households were more likely (OR:2.2; 95% CI: 1.45, 4.42; p < 0.001) to have been bitten by dogs than those from dog-owning households. The awareness and attitude of pupils under 15 to canine rabies was poor. We advocate the introduction of rabies lessons into the school curriculum in Kwara State to reduce the incidence of dog bites and prevent dog-mediated human rabies.     

Development of a Novel Rabies Simulation Model for Application in a Non-endemic Environment

Domestic dog rabies is an endemic disease in large parts of the developing world and also epidemic in previously free regions. For example, it continues to spread in eastern Indonesia and currently threatens adjacent rabies-free regions with high densities of free-roaming dogs, including remote northern Australia. Mathematical and simulation disease models are useful tools to provide insights on the most effective control strategies and to inform policy decisions. Existing rabies models typically focus on long-term control programs in endemic countries. However, simulation models describing the dog rabies incursion scenario in regions where rabies is still exotic are lacking. We here describe such a stochastic, spatially explicit rabies simulation model that is based on individual dog information collected in two remote regions in northern Australia. Illustrative simulations produced plausible results with epidemic characteristics expected for rabies outbreaks in disease free regions (mean R₀ 1.7, epidemic peak 97 days post-incursion, vaccination as the most effective response strategy). Systematic sensitivity analysis identified that model outcomes were most sensitive to seven of the 30 model parameters tested. This model is suitable for exploring rabies spread and control before an incursion in populations of largely free-roaming dogs that live close together with their owners. It can be used for ad-hoc contingency or response planning prior to and shortly after incursion of dog rabies in previously free regions. One challenge that remains is model parameterisation, particularly how dogs’ roaming and contacts and biting behaviours change following a rabies incursion in a previously rabies free population.     

Cost-effectiveness of the national dog rabies prevention and control program in Mexico, 1990–2015

BackgroundRabies is a viral zoonosis that imposes a substantial disease and economic burden in many developing countries. Dogs are the primary source of rabies transmission; eliminating dog rabies reduces the risk of exposure in humans significantly. Through mass annual dog rabies vaccination campaigns, the national program of rabies control in Mexico progressively reduced rabies cases in dogs and humans since 1990. In 2019, the World Health Organization validated Mexico for eliminating rabies as a public health problem. Using a governmental perspective, we retrospectively assessed the economic costs, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness of the national program of rabies control in Mexico, 1990–2015.MethodologyCombining various data sources, including administrative records, national statistics, and scientific literature, we retrospectively compared the current scenario of annual dog vaccination campaigns and post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) with a counterfactual scenario without an annual dog vaccination campaign but including PEP. The counterfactual scenario was estimated using a mathematical model of dog rabies transmission (RabiesEcon). We performed a thorough sensitivity analysis of the main results.Principal findingsResults suggest that in 1990 through 2015, the national dog rabies vaccination program in Mexico prevented about 13,000 human rabies deaths, at an incremental cost (MXN 2015) of $4,700 million (USD 300 million). We estimated an average cost of $360,000 (USD 23,000) per human rabies death averted, $6,500 (USD 410) per additional year-of-life, and $3,000 (USD 190) per dog rabies death averted. Results were robust to several counterfactual scenarios, including high and low rabies transmission scenarios and various assumptions about potential costs without mass dog rabies vaccination campaigns.ConclusionsAnnual dog rabies vaccination campaigns have eliminated the transmission of dog-to-dog rabies and dog-mediated human rabies deaths in Mexico. According to World Health Organization standards, our results show that the national program of rabies control in Mexico has been highly cost-effective.