The economic benefits of malaria elimination: do they include increases in tourism?

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Policy makers have speculated that one of the economic benefits of malaria elimination includes increases in foreign direct investment, particularly tourism. METHODS: The study examines the empirical relationship between the demand for travel and malaria cases in two countries with large tourism industries around the time in which they carried out malaria-elimination campaigns. In Mauritius, this analysis examines historical yearly tourist arrivals and malaria cases from 1978-1999, accounting for the background secular trend of increasing international travel. In Dominican Republic, a country embarking upon malaria elimination, it employs a time-series analyses of the monthly, international, tourist arrivals from 1998-2010 to determine whether the timing of significant deviations in tourist arrivals coincides with malaria outbreaks. RESULTS: While naive relationships exist in both cases, the results show that the relationships between tourist arrival and malaria cases are relatively weak and statistically insignificant once secular confounders are accounted for. CONCLUSIONS: This suggests that any economic benefits from tourism that may be derived from actively pursuing elimination in countries that may have high tourism potential are likely to be small when measured at a national level. Rather, tourism benefits are likely to be experienced with greater impact in more concentrated tourist areas within countries, and future studies should seek to assess this relationship at a regional or local level.     

Influenza epidemics in the USSR and Czechoslovakia in 1979-1984

In this work materials characterizing the appearance and development of influenza epidemic at the territories of the USSR and the Czech Socialist Republic are presented, the common features and differences of the epidemic process in both countries are recorded. The work shows that in both countries the appearance of this epidemic is caused by the same virus. In most cases the epidemic started earlier and lasted longer in the USSR, but morbidity rate during the epidemic was, on the whole, higher in the Czech Socialist Republic. Similarity in the course of the primary period of the epidemic processes from their appearance to their maximum rise was observed. In both countries the maximum rise of morbidity rate was registered on weeks 3-4 from the beginning of the epidemic.     

Behavior of Anopheles mosquitoes in contact with insecticides

The rate of irritability and "aggressiveness" (attacking activity) at the contact with DDT was determined for all main potential vectors of malaria in the USSR. Great species differences were found out. Changes in the irritability and "aggressiveness" rates with growth of resistance to DDT were traced. The knowledge of resistance rate, initial data on the irritability and "aggressiveness" of each species and the main trends in the changes in mosquitoes behaviour under the effect of DDT makes it possible to predict the effectiveness of DDT in concrete situations. The results of visual observations on the behaviour of malaria vectors in dwelling treated with malathion and propocsur, substitutes for DDT in control on resistant populations, are given.     

Polymorphism and epitope sharing between the alleles of merozoite surface protein-1 of Plasmodium falciparum among Indian isolates

A comparison was made between local malaria transmission and malaria imported by travellers to identify the utility of national and regional annual parasite index (API) in predicting malaria risk and its value in generating recommendations on malaria prophylaxis for travellers. Regional malaria transmission data was correlated with malaria acquired in Latin America and imported into the USA and nine European countries. Between 2000 and 2004, most countries reported declining malaria transmission. Highest API's in 2003/4 were in Surinam (287.4) Guyana (209.2) and French Guiana (147.4). The major source of travel associated malaria was Honduras, French Guiana, Guatemala, Mexico and Ecuador. During 2004 there were 6.3 million visits from the ten study countries and in 2005, 209 cases of malaria of which 22 (11%) were Plasmodium falciparum. The risk of adverse events are high and the benefit of avoided benign vivax malaria is very low under current policy, which may be causing more harm than benefit.     

Malaria in the whole world and in Romania

Malaria is the world's most important tropical parasitic disease. Malaria is a public health problem today in more than 90 countries. Worldwide prevalence of the disease is estimated to be in the order of 300-500 million clinical cases each year. Malaria is endemic in a total of 101 countries and territories. In Romania, malaria does not represent an important public health problem. In 1999, there were reported a total number of 32 malaria cases in Romanian people. 78% from these recognized as etiological agent Pl. falciparum. The malaria cases imported from Turkey (5) have had as etiological agent Pl. vivax. The most affected age group is between 21-50 years and a distribution by profession shows that sailor personnel accounts for 65.6% of all cases. Africa remains the most important endemic region from where the malaria cases in Romanian people are imported. An adequate chemoprophylaxis is not, yet, easy to obtain for Romanian people who are travelling abroad in endemic countries because of the lack of specific drugs (especially for resistant forms of Pl. falciparum). Even if the Romanian Ministry of Health had elaborated orders regarding malaria and Cloroquine is the usual drug administered, as chemoprophylaxis, to Romanian people who travel abroad, in each year in our country appears around 30-60 imported malaria cases. That is the cause why Romanian Ministry of Health wants to solve this problem which is the major cause of the malaria cases in Romanian people.     

The El Niño southern oscillation and malaria epidemics in South America

A better understanding of the relationship between the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the climatic anomalies it engenders, and malaria epidemics could help mitigate the world-wide increase in incidence of this mosquito-transmitted disease. The purpose of this paper is to assess the possibility of using ENSO forecasts for improving malaria control. This paper analyses the relationship between ENSO events and malaria epidemics in a number of South American countries (Colombia, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guyana, Peru, Suriname, and Venezuela). A statistically significant relationship was found between El Ni?o and malaria epidemics in Colombia, Guyana, Peru, and Venezuela. We demonstrate that flooding engenders malaria epidemics in the dry coastal region of northern Peru, while droughts favor the development of epidemics in Colombia and Guyana, and epidemics lag a drought by 1 year in Venezuela. In Brazil, French Guiana, and Ecuador, where we did not detect an ENSO/malaria signal, non-climatic factors such as insecticide sprayings, variation in availability of anti-malaria drugs, and population migration are likely to play a stronger role in malaria epidemics than ENSO-generated climatic anomalies. In some South American countries, El Ni?o forecasts show strong potential for informing public health efforts to control malaria.     

Scientific basis for the Soviet and Russian radiofrequency standards for the general public

The former Soviet Union (USSR) and the USA were the first countries to introduce standards limiting exposure to radiofrequency (RF) fields. However, the exposure limits in the USSR standards were always much lower than those in the USA and other countries. The objective of this article is to provide a history of the development of the Soviet and Russian RF standards. In addition, we summarize the scientific evidence used to develop the original USSR RF and subsequent Russian public health standards, as well as the mobile telecommunications standard published in 2003, but we do not critique them. We also describe the protective approaches used by the Soviet and Russian scientists for setting their limits. A translation of the papers of the key studies used to develop their standards is available in the online version of this publication. Bioelectromagnetics 33:623–633, 2012. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Malaria Diagnosis: A Brief Review

Malaria is a major cause of death in tropical and sub-tropical countries, killing each year over 1 million people globally; 90% of fatalities occur in African children. Although effective ways to manage malaria now exist, the number of malaria cases is still increasing, due to several factors. In this emergency situation, prompt and effective diagnostic methods are essential for the management and control of malaria. Traditional methods for diagnosing malaria remain problematic; therefore, new technologies have been developed and introduced to overcome the limitations. This review details the currently available diagnostic methods for malaria.     

Mapping Risk of Malaria Transmission in Mainland Portugal Using a Mathematical Modelling Approach

Malaria is currently one of the world´s major health problems. About a half-million deaths are recorded every year. In Portugal, malaria cases were significantly high until the end of the 1950s but the disease was considered eliminated in 1973. In the past few years, endemic malaria cases have been recorded in some European countries. With the increasing human mobility from countries with endemic malaria to Portugal, there is concern about the resurgence of this disease in the country. Here, we model and map the risk of malaria transmission for mainland Portugal, considering 3 different scenarios of existing imported infections. This risk assessment resulted from entomological studies on An. atroparvus, the only known mosquito capable of transmitting malaria in the study area. We used the malariogenic potential (determined by receptivity, infectivity and vulnerability) applied over geospatial data sets to estimate spatial variation in malaria risk. The results suggest that the risk exists, and the hotspots are concentrated in the northeast region of the country and in the upper and lower Alentejo regions.     

Beyond borders: on the influence of the creationist movement on the educational landscape in the USA and Russia

This paper provides a detailed look at how creationism originated in the United States and then explores how this evangelical trend was exported to Russia by American missionaries following the fall of the USSR. The comparison between these two countries is particularly interesting since the rivalry between the US and the USSR during the race to space caused both countries to revamp their science education. Yet, while political interests led both governments to focus on science education, creationist activities were simultaneously focused on diminishing the coverage of evolution in science classrooms. Now, decades following Sputnik’s trip to space, the urgency to strengthen scientific learning has waned, while creationists are still equally focused on removing scientific naturalism in favor of supernatural explanations for the origin of species. This paper thus offers an in-depth look at which groups are currently responsible for promoting creationist activities in the US and in Russia and which groups are working hard to keep supernatural doctrines out of science curriculum.     

Costs of Eliminating Malaria and the Impact of the Global Fund in 34 Countries

Background

International financing for malaria increased more than 18-fold between 2000 and 2011; the largest source came from The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund). Countries have made substantial progress, but achieving elimination requires sustained finances to interrupt transmission and prevent reintroduction. Since 2011, global financing for malaria has declined, fueling concerns that further progress will be impeded, especially for current malaria-eliminating countries that may face resurgent malaria if programs are disrupted.

Objectives

This study aims to 1) assess past total and Global Fund funding to the 34 current malaria-eliminating countries, and 2) estimate their future funding needs to achieve malaria elimination and prevent reintroduction through 2030.

Methods

Historical funding is assessed against trends in country-level malaria annual parasite incidences (APIs) and income per capita. Following Kizewski et al. (2007), program costs to eliminate malaria and prevent reintroduction through 2030 are estimated using a deterministic model. The cost parameters are tailored to a package of interventions aimed at malaria elimination and prevention of reintroduction.

Results

The majority of Global Fund-supported countries experiencing increases in total funding from 2005 to 2010 coincided with reductions in malaria APIs and also overall GNI per capita average annual growth. The total amount of projected funding needed for the current malaria-eliminating countries to achieve elimination and prevent reintroduction through 2030 is approximately US$8.5 billion, or about $1.84 per person at risk per year (PPY) (ranging from $2.51 PPY in 2014 to $1.43 PPY in 2030).

Conclusions

Although external donor funding, particularly from the Global Fund, has been key for many malaria-eliminating countries, sustained and sufficient financing is critical for furthering global malaria elimination. Projected cost estimates for elimination provide policymakers with an indication of the level of financial resources that should be mobilized to achieve malaria elimination goals.     

Opportunities, problems and perspectives for malaria control in sub-Saharan Africa

Environments conducive to high malaria transmission and widespread poverty are at the roots of the 'malaria giant', which affects 46 countries in Africa. The recent interest in and momentum of work on malaria, in endemic countries and the international community, is unprecedented and opens new perspectives for controlling the disease. Significant steps included: (i) the allocation of US$20 million by WHO for accelerated implementation of malaria control in 34 African countries in 1997-98; (ii) the Declaration on Malaria by the Heads of States of the Organization of African Unity and the establishment of the African Initiative for Malaria Control in 1997; (iii) the concomitant mobilisation of the research community in the Multilateral Initiative on Malaria; (iv) the G8 Summit in 1998 in Birmingham asking for higher commitment to malaria control, particularly in Africa; and (v) the Roll Back Malaria initiative set as a WHO priority project in 1998. However, experiences have proved the alarming 'resilience' of the malaria system in Africa, showing devastating consequences when malaria returns to the original levels after intensive control is interrupted. Effective malaria control in Africa requires long-term action, firmly rooted in the social development of the country.     

Human red blood cell polymorphisms and malaria

Genetic factors are a major determinant of child survival in malaria endemic countries. Identifying which genes are involved and how they affect the malaria disease risk potentially offers a powerful mechanism through which to learn more about the host-parasite relationship. The past few years have seen significant progress towards achieving this goal for some of the best-known malaria resistance genes that determine the structure or function of red blood cells: Gerbich blood group antigen negativity; polymorphisms of the complement receptor genes (most notably CR1); Southeast Asian ovalocytosis; pyruvate kinase deficiency; haemoglobin E; the sickle cell trait; and alpha-thalassaemia are all examples. The challenge for the future must be to translate such advances into fresh approaches to the prevention and treatment of malaria.     

A sticky situation: the unexpected stability of malaria elimination

Malaria eradication involves eliminating malaria from every country where transmission occurs. Current theory suggests that the post-elimination challenges of remaining malaria-free by stopping transmission from imported malaria will have onerous operational and financial requirements. Although resurgent malaria has occurred in a majority of countries that tried but failed to eliminate malaria, a review of resurgence in countries that successfully eliminated finds only four such failures out of 50 successful programmes. Data documenting malaria importation and onwards transmission in these countries suggests malaria transmission potential has declined by more than 50-fold (i.e. more than 98%) since before elimination. These outcomes suggest that elimination is a surprisingly stable state. Elimination''s ‘stickiness’ must be explained either by eliminating countries starting off qualitatively different from non-eliminating countries or becoming different once elimination was achieved. Countries that successfully eliminated were wealthier and had lower baseline endemicity than those that were unsuccessful, but our analysis shows that those same variables were at best incomplete predictors of the patterns of resurgence. Stability is reinforced by the loss of immunity to disease and by the health system''s increasing capacity to control malaria transmission after elimination through routine treatment of cases with antimalarial drugs supplemented by malaria outbreak control. Human travel patterns reinforce these patterns; as malaria recedes, fewer people carry malaria from remote endemic areas to remote areas where transmission potential remains high. Establishment of an international resource with backup capacity to control large outbreaks can make elimination stickier, increase the incentives for countries to eliminate, and ensure steady progress towards global eradication. Although available evidence supports malaria elimination''s stickiness at moderate-to-low transmission in areas with well-developed health systems, it is not yet clear if such patterns will hold in all areas. The sticky endpoint changes the projected costs of maintaining elimination and makes it substantially more attractive for countries acting alone, and it makes spatially progressive elimination a sensible strategy for a malaria eradication endgame.     

Malaria control: present situation and need for historical research

A rapid review is made of the history of malaria control, calling attention to differences between the evolution of the technical concepts, the formulated strategies and their implementation. Particular emphasis is placed on the discussion of the present situation of the world malaria problem and the difficulties faced by many endemic countries in adopting a malaria control strategy, based on primary health care, while their services are vertically organized for the performance of routines, which are irrelevant for disease control. The present malaria control strategy recognizes local variability, but it is possible to identify a limited number of types of situations, likely to respond to similar approaches. The definition not only of the control approaches but also of their conditions of applicability will become more precise as experiences are accumulated and adequately documented from different types of epidemiological situations. It is postulated that historical research on the malaria control and public health approaches, with proper attention being given to their socioeconomic and political context, in the countries which succeeded in controlling endemic malaria, will make an important contribution to such a definition.     

Bone marrow suppression and severe anaemia associated with persistent Plasmodium falciparum infection in African children with microscopically undetectable parasitaemia

In sub-Saharan Africa the highest overlap between malaria and HIV infections occurs in female adolescents. Yet control activities for these infections are directed to different target groups, using disparate channels. This reflects the lack of priority given to adolescents and the absence of an accepted framework for delivering health and health-related interventions to this high-risk group. In this paper it is argued that female adolescents require a continuum of care for malaria and HIV – prior to conception, during and after pregnancy and that this should be provided through adolescent services. The evidence for this conclusion is presented. A number of African countries are commencing to formulate and implement adolescent-friendly policies and services and disease control programs for malaria and HIV will need to locate their interventions within such programs to ensure widespread coverage of this important target group. Failure to prioritize adolescent health in this way will seriously limit the success of disease control programs for malaria and HIV prevention.     

Current issues for anti-malarial drugs to control P. falciparum malaria

Successful malaria control depends heavily on efficacious anti-malarial drugs for the treatment of malaria. Artesunate-containing Combination Treatments (ACT) are increasingly recommended as first line malaria treatment in endemic countries, but implementation of this recommendation is limited by the small number of available and affordable co-formulated anti-malarial drugs. In recent years Intermittent Preventive Treatment has been recommended for malaria control in pregnancy and has been shown to be of potential public health importance in the prevention of malaria and anaemia in children. The use of drugs for malaria treatment or prevention is associated with the development of resistance and recent advances in molecular biology facilitate the evaluation of the impact on drug resistance of new drug-based strategies. This review concentrates on the challenges surrounding the use of ACT, the current understanding of IPT in infants and the use of molecular approaches to enhance our understanding of the effects of interventions on the spread of drug resistance.     

Novel antimalarial drugs from plants?

In all countries where malaria is endemic, plants are used in traditional medicine for treatment of the disease. Examples are numerous - the plant product data base napralert (Box I) lists 152 genera which are allegedly used for the treatment of malaria. But with the urgent need to develop new, safe and effective drugs against malaria, it is vital that such claims be fully investigated. In this article, David Phillipson and Melanie O'Neill discuss the potential of plant products for new antimoloriols, drawing attention particularly to the quassinoids - a diverse group of terpenoids from the family Simoroubaceoe.     

Chernobyl radionuclides outside the boundaries of the USSR. The European continent]

The reports on radiation sequels of Chernobyl disaster outside the country are scanty in the USSR. The present paper meets the lack, reporting the scale and the nature of the radioactive fall-outs outside the USSR. The analysis is made of possible radiological consequences of such fall-outs and the preventive measures taken by the governments of some European countries.     

Estimating the Global Clinical Burden of Plasmodium falciparum Malaria in 2007

Background

The epidemiology of malaria makes surveillance-based methods of estimating its disease burden problematic. Cartographic approaches have provided alternative malaria burden estimates, but there remains widespread misunderstanding about their derivation and fidelity. The aims of this study are to present a new cartographic technique and its application for deriving global clinical burden estimates of Plasmodium falciparum malaria for 2007, and to compare these estimates and their likely precision with those derived under existing surveillance-based approaches.

Methods and Findings

In seven of the 87 countries endemic for P. falciparum malaria, the health reporting infrastructure was deemed sufficiently rigorous for case reports to be used verbatim. In the remaining countries, the mapped extent of unstable and stable P. falciparum malaria transmission was first determined. Estimates of the plausible incidence range of clinical cases were then calculated within the spatial limits of unstable transmission. A modelled relationship between clinical incidence and prevalence was used, together with new maps of P. falciparum malaria endemicity, to estimate incidence in areas of stable transmission, and geostatistical joint simulation was used to quantify uncertainty in these estimates at national, regional, and global scales.Combining these estimates for all areas of transmission risk resulted in 451 million (95% credible interval 349–552 million) clinical cases of P. falciparum malaria in 2007. Almost all of this burden of morbidity occurred in areas of stable transmission. More than half of all estimated P. falciparum clinical cases and associated uncertainty occurred in India, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and Myanmar (Burma), where 1.405 billion people are at risk.Recent surveillance-based methods of burden estimation were then reviewed and discrepancies in national estimates explored. When these cartographically derived national estimates were ranked according to their relative uncertainty and replaced by surveillance-based estimates in the least certain half, 98% of the global clinical burden continued to be estimated by cartographic techniques.

Conclusions and Significance

Cartographic approaches to burden estimation provide a globally consistent measure of malaria morbidity of known fidelity, and they represent the only plausible method in those malaria-endemic countries with nonfunctional national surveillance. Unacceptable uncertainty in the clinical burden of malaria in only four countries confounds our ability to evaluate needs and monitor progress toward international targets for malaria control at the global scale. National prevalence surveys in each nation would reduce this uncertainty profoundly. Opportunities for further reducing uncertainty in clinical burden estimates by hybridizing alternative burden estimation procedures are also evaluated. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary