Vaccination against multiple HPV types

Vaccines against the most common human papillomavirus (HPV) types are currently under development. Epidemiologic data suggest that the transmission dynamics of different HPV types are not independent. Some studies indicate that interactions among HPV types are synergistic, where infection with one type facilitates concurrent or subsequent infection with another HPV type. Other studies point to antagonistic interference among HPV types. Here we develop a mathematical model to explore how these interactions may either enhance or diminish the effectiveness of vaccination programs designed to reduce the prevalence of the HPV types associated with cervical cancer. We analyze the local stability of the infection-free and boundary equilibria and characterize the conditions leading to a coexistence equilibrium. We also illustrate the results with numerical simulations using realistic model parameters. We show that if interactions among HPV types are synergistic, mass vaccination may reduce the prevalence of types that are not even included in the vaccine.     

Type-Specific Human Papillomavirus Biological Features: Validated Model-Based Estimates

Infection with high-risk (hr) human papillomavirus (HPV) is considered the necessary cause of cervical cancer. Vaccination against HPV16 and 18 types, which are responsible of about 75% of cervical cancer worldwide, is expected to have a major global impact on cervical cancer occurrence. Valid estimates of the parameters that regulate the natural history of hrHPV infections are crucial to draw reliable projections of the impact of vaccination. We devised a mathematical model to estimate the probability of infection transmission, the rate of clearance, and the patterns of immune response following the clearance of infection of 13 hrHPV types. To test the validity of our estimates, we fitted the same transmission model to two large independent datasets from Italy and Sweden and assessed finding consistency. The two populations, both unvaccinated, differed substantially by sexual behaviour, age distribution, and study setting (screening for cervical cancer or Chlamydia trachomatis infection). Estimated transmission probability of hrHPV types (80% for HPV16, 73%-82% for HPV18, and above 50% for most other types); clearance rates decreasing as a function of time since infection; and partial protection against re-infection with the same hrHPV type (approximately 20% for HPV16 and 50% for the other types) were similar in the two countries. The model could accurately predict the HPV16 prevalence observed in Italy among women who were not infected three years before. In conclusion, our models inform on biological parameters that cannot at the moment be measured directly from any empirical data but are essential to forecast the impact of HPV vaccination programmes.     

Effectiveness of bivalent and quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccination in Luxembourg

BackgroundIn Luxembourg, the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination program introduced in 2008, provided either bivalent (BV) or quadrivalent (QV) vaccines to girls aged 12–17 years. Here, we estimate the effectiveness of BV and QV vaccines combined and separately in reducing type-specific HPV prevalence eight years after the introduction of the vaccination program.MethodsA cross-sectional prevalence study was conducted among women aged 18–29 years in 2015-2017. Seven hundred sixteen participants were recruited at family planning centres or private gynaecology practices in Luxembourg. Vaccination records were verified in the social security database. Cervical samples were tested using the Anyplex II HPV28 assay. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated using logistic regression.ResultsIn total, 363/716 (50.7%) participants were HPV positive with any HPV and 209/716 (29.2%) with carcinogenic HPV genotypes. HPV vaccination offered high protection against HPV16/18 (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 0.13; 95% CI 0.03-0.63), HPV6/11 (AOR = 0.16; 95% CI 0.05-0.48) and cross-protection against HPV31/33/45 (AOR = 0.41; 95% CI 0.18-0.94). The AORs were generally enhanced when only considering vaccination before sexual debut corresponding to AORs: 0.05 (95% CI 0.00-0.88), 0.08 (95% CI 0.02-0.36) and 0.20 (0.06-0.65) against HPV16/18, HPV6/11 and HPV31/33/45, respectively. We observed significant protection against carcinogenic genotypes included in nonavalent vaccine for BV (AOR = 0.29; 95% CI 0.13-0.67), but not for QV (AOR = 0.81; 95% CI 0.47–1.40) (heterogeneity Chi² P = 0.04).ConclusionsOur study suggests high effectiveness of HPV vaccination against HPV6/11, HPV16/18 and a cross-protection against HPV31/33/45. Vaccination effectiveness was slightly higher for women vaccinated before sexual debut.     

Vaccinating Girls and Boys with Different Human Papillomavirus Vaccines: Can It Optimise Population-Level Effectiveness?

Background

Decision-makers may consider vaccinating girls and boys with different HPV vaccines to benefit from their respective strengths; the quadrivalent (HPV4) prevents anogenital warts (AGW) whilst the bivalent (HPV2) may confer greater cross-protection. We compared, to a girls-only vaccination program with HPV4, the impact of vaccinating: 1) both genders with HPV4, and 2) boys with HPV4 and girls with HPV2.

Methods

We used an individual-based transmission-dynamic model of heterosexual HPV infection and diseases. Our base-case scenario assumed lifelong efficacy of 100% against vaccine types, and 46,29,8,18,6% and 77,43,79,8,0% efficacy against HPV-31,-33,-45,-52,-58 for HPV4 and HPV2, respectively.

Results

Assuming 70% vaccination coverage and lifelong cross-protection, vaccinating boys has little additional benefit on AGW prevention, irrespective of the vaccine used for girls. Furthermore, using HPV4 for boys and HPV2 for girls produces greater incremental reductions in SCC incidence than using HPV4 for both genders (12 vs 7 percentage points). At 50% vaccination coverage, vaccinating boys produces incremental reductions in AGW of 17 percentage points if both genders are vaccinated with HPV4, but increases female incidence by 16 percentage points if girls are switched to HPV2 (heterosexual male incidence is incrementally reduced by 24 percentage points in both scenarios). Higher incremental reductions in SCC incidence are predicted when vaccinating boys with HPV4 and girls with HPV2 versus vaccinating both genders with HPV4 (16 vs 12 percentage points). Results are sensitive to vaccination coverage and the relative duration of protection of the vaccines.

Conclusion

Vaccinating girls with HPV2 and boys with HPV4 can optimize SCC prevention if HPV2 has higher/longer cross-protection, but can increase AGW incidence if vaccination coverage is low among boys.     

Sex-specific immunization for sexually transmitted infections such as human papillomavirus: insights from mathematical models

Background

Sex-specific differences regarding the transmissibility and the course of infection are the rule rather than the exception in the epidemiology of sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Human papillomavirus (HPV) provides an example: disease outcomes differ between men and women, as does the potential for transmission to the opposite sex. HPV vaccination of preadolescent girls was recently introduced in many countries, and inclusion of boys in the vaccination programs is being discussed. Here, we address the question of whether vaccinating females only, males only, or both sexes is the most effective strategy to reduce the population prevalence of an STI like HPV.

Methods and Findings

We use a range of two-sex transmission models with varying detail to identify general criteria for allocating a prophylactic vaccine between both sexes. The most effective reduction in the population prevalence of infection is always achieved by single-sex vaccination; vaccinating the sex with the highest prevaccine prevalence is the preferred strategy in most circumstances. Exceptions arise only when the higher prevaccine prevalence is due to a substantially lower rate of natural immunity, or when natural immunity is lifelong, and a prolonged duration of infectiousness coincides with increased transmissibility. Predictions from simple models were confirmed in simulations based on an elaborate HPV transmission model. Our analysis suggests that relatively inefficient genital transmission from males to females might render male vaccination more effective in reducing overall infection levels. However, most existing HPV vaccination programs have achieved sufficient coverage to continue with female-only vaccination.

Conclusions

Increasing vaccine uptake among preadolescent girls is more effective in reducing HPV infection than including boys in existing vaccination programs. As a rule, directing prophylactic immunization at the sex with the highest prevaccine prevalence results in the largest reduction of the population prevalence. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Vaccination and the population structure of antigenically diverse pathogens that exchange genetic material.

Populations of antigenically diverse pathogens undergoing genetic exchange may be categorized into strains on the basis of a set of principal protective antigens. The extent to which polyvalent vaccines based on these protective antigens can alter the population structure of the pathogen is determined by the degree of cross-protection between strains. In the case where there is no cross-protection, vaccinating against a particular strain will have no effect on the others. As cross-protection increases, the strains containing the antigenic variants included in the vaccine will be diminished in prevalence, and those that do not will increase in prevalence. The rise in prevalence of the latter will become more and more exaggerated as cross-protection increases. However, beyond a critical level of cross-protection, in the absence of vaccination, the steady state of the system is asymmetric in that a certain subset of strains (with non-overlapping repertoires of antigenic variants) will dominate over the others in terms of prevalence. Under these circumstances, a vaccine consisting of the most immunogenic combinations of antigenic variants can cause a dramatic increase in frequency of a subset of rare strains.     

Cross-protection against influenza virus infection afforded by trivalent inactivated vaccines inoculated intranasally with cholera toxin B subunit.

Cross-protection against influenza virus infection was examined in mice, immunized intranasally with a nasal site-restricted volume of inactivated vaccines together with cholera toxin B subunit (CTB) as an adjuvant. The mice were challenged with either a small or a large volume of mouse-adapted virus suspension, each of which gave virgin mice either a predominant upper or lower respiratory tract infection. A single dose of a monovalent influenza A H3N2 virus vaccine with CTB provided complete cross-protection against the small-volume challenge with a drift virus within the same subtype, but a slight cross-protection against the large-volume challenge. A second dose of another drift virus vaccine increased the efficacy of cross-protection against the large-volume challenge. Similar cross-protection against H1N1, H3N2, or B type drift virus challenge was provided in the mice having received a primary dose of a mixture of H1N1, H3N2, and B virus vaccines with CTB and a second dose of another trivalent vaccine. The degree of cross-protection against the small- and the large-volume infection paralleled mainly the amount of cross-reacting IgA antibodies to challenge virus hemagglutinin in the nasal wash and that of cross-reacting IgG antibodies in the bronchoalveolar wash, respectively. On the other hand, in mice immunized subcutaneously with the trivalent vaccines having no cross-reacting IgA antibodies, the efficacy of cross-protection was not so high as that of nasal vaccination. These results suggest that the nasal inoculation of trivalent vaccines with CTB provides cross-protection against a broader range of viruses than does the current parenteral vaccination.     

A Cross-Sectional Study to Assess HPV Knowledge and HPV Vaccine Acceptability in Mali

Despite a high prevalence of oncogenic human papilloma virus (HPV) infection and cervical cancer mortality, HPV vaccination is not currently available in Mali. Knowledge of HPV and cervical cancer in Mali, and thereby vaccine readiness, may be limited. Research staff visited homes in a radial pattern from a central location to recruit adolescent females and males aged 12–17 years and men and women aged ≥18 years (N = 51) in a peri-urban village of Bamako, Mali. Participants took part in structured interviews assessing knowledge, attitudes, and practices related to HPV, cervical cancer, and HPV vaccination. We found low levels of HPV and cervical cancer knowledge. While only 2.0% of respondents knew that HPV is a sexually transmitted infection (STI), 100% said they would be willing to receive HPV vaccination and would like the HPV vaccine to be available in Mali. Moreover, 74.5% said they would vaccinate their child(ren) against HPV. Men were found to have significantly greater autonomy in the decision to vaccinate themselves than women and adolescents (p = 0.005), a potential barrier to be addressed by immunization campaigns. HPV vaccination would be highly acceptable if the vaccine became widely available in Bamako, Mali. This study demonstrates the need for a significant investment in health education if truly informed consent is to be obtained for HPV vaccination. Potential HPV vaccination campaigns should provide more information about HPV and the vaccine. Barriers to vaccination, including the significantly lower ability of the majority of the target population to autonomously decide to get vaccinated, must also be addressed in future HPV vaccine campaigns.     

Human Papillomavirus Type-Specific Prevalence in the Cervical Cancer Screening Population of Czech Women

Background

Infection with high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV)types has been recognized as a causal factor for the development of cervical cancer and a number of other malignancies. Today, vaccines against HPV, highly effective in the prevention of persistent infection and precancerous lesions, are available for the routine clinical practice.

Objectives

The data on the prevalence and type-specific HPV distribution in the population of each country are crucial for the surveillance of HPV type-specific prevalence at the onset of vaccination against HPV.

Methods

Women attending a preventive gynecological examination who had no history of abnormal cytological finding and/or surgery for cervical lesions were enrolled. All samples were tested for the presence of HPV by High-Risk Hybrid Capture 2 (HR HC2) and by a modified PCR-reverse line blot assay with broad spectrum primers (BS-RLB).

Results

Cervical smears of 1393 women were analyzed. In 6.5% of women, atypical cytological findings were detected. Altogether, 28.3% (394/1393) of women were positive for any HPV type by BS-RLB, 18.2% (254/1393) by HR HC2, and 22.3% (310/1393) by BS-RLB for HR HPV types. In women with atypical findings the prevalence for HR and any HPV types were significantly higher than in women with normal cytological findings. Overall, 36 different HPV types were detected, with HPV 16 being the most prevalent (4.8%). HPV positivity decreased with age; the highest prevalence was 31.5% in the age group 21-25 years.

Conclusions

Our study subjects represent the real screening population. HPV prevalence in this population in the Czech Republic is higher than in other countries of Eastern Europe. Also the spectrum of the most prevalent HPV types differs from those reported by others but HPV 16 is, concordantly, the most prevalent type. Country-specific HPV type-specific prevalences provide baseline information which will enable to measure the impact of HPV vaccination in the future.     

Analysis of Risk-Structured Vaccination Model for the Dynamics of Oncogenic and Warts-Causing HPV Types

A new deterministic model is designed and used to assess the community-wide impact of mass vaccination of new sexually active individuals on the dynamics of the oncogenic and warts-causing HPV types. Rigorous qualitative analyses of the model, which incorporates the two currently available anti-HPV vaccines, reveal that it undergoes competitive exclusion when the reproduction of one HPV risk type (low/high) exceeds unity, while that of the other HPV risk type is less than unity. For the case when the reproduction numbers of the two HPV risk types (low/high) exceed unity, the two risk types co-exist. It is shown that the sub-model with the low-risk HPV types only has at least one endemic equilibrium whenever the associated reproduction threshold exceeds unity. Furthermore, this sub-model undergoes a re-infection-induced backward bifurcation under certain conditions. In the absence of the re-infection of recovered individuals and cancer-induced mortality in males, the associated disease-free equilibrium of the full (risk-structured) model is shown to be globally asymptotically stable whenever the reproduction number of the model is less than unity (that is, the full model does not undergo backward bifurcation under this setting). It is shown, via numerical simulations, that the use of the Gardasil vaccine could lead to the effective control of HPV in the community if the coverage rate is in the range of 73–95 % (84 %). If 70 % of the new sexually active susceptible females are vaccinated with the Gardasil vaccine, additionally vaccinating 34–56 % (45 %) of the new sexually active susceptible males can lead to the effective community-wide control (or elimination) of the HPV types.     

Randomization Modeling to Ascertain Clustering Patterns of Human Papillomavirus Types Detected in Cervicovaginal Samples in the United States

Detection of multiple human papillomavirus (HPV) types in the genital tract is common. Associations among HPV types may impact HPV vaccination modeling and type replacement. The objectives were to determine the distribution of concurrent HPV type infections in cervicovaginal samples and examine type-specific associations. We analyzed HPV genotyping results from 32,245 cervicovaginal specimens collected from women aged 11 to 83 years in the United States from 2001 through 2011. Statistical power was enhanced by combining 6 separate studies. Expected concurrent infection frequencies from a series of permutation models, each with increasing fidelity to the real data, were compared with the observed data. Statistics were computed based on the distributional properties of the randomized data. Concurrent detection occurred more than expected with 0 or ≥3 HPV types and less than expected with 1 and 2 types. Some women bear a disproportionate burden of the HPV type prevalence. Type associations were observed that exceeded multiple hypothesis corrected significance. Multiple HPV types were detected more frequently than expected by chance and associations among particular HPV types were detected. However vaccine-targeted types were not specifically affected, supporting the expectation that current bivalent/quadrivalent HPV vaccination will not result in type replacement with other high-risk types.     

Reduced Prevalence of Oral Human Papillomavirus (HPV) 4 Years after Bivalent HPV Vaccination in a Randomized Clinical Trial in Costa Rica

Background

Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, particularly with type 16, causes a growing fraction of oropharyngeal cancers, whose incidence is increasing, mainly in developed countries. In a double-blind controlled trial conducted to investigate vaccine efficacy (VE) of the bivalent HPV 16/18 vaccine against cervical infections and lesions, we estimated VE against prevalent oral HPV infections 4 years after vaccination.

Methods and Findings

A total of 7,466 women 18–25 years old were randomized (1∶1) to receive the HPV16/18 vaccine or hepatitis A vaccine as control. At the final blinded 4-year study visit, 5,840 participants provided oral specimens (91·9% of eligible women) to evaluate VE against oral infections. Our primary analysis evaluated prevalent oral HPV infection among all vaccinated women with oral and cervical HPV results. Corresponding VE against prevalent cervical HPV16/18 infection was calculated for comparison. Oral prevalence of identifiable mucosal HPV was relatively low (1·7%). Approximately four years after vaccination, there were 15 prevalent HPV16/18 infections in the control group and one in the vaccine group, for an estimated VE of 93·3% (95% CI = 63% to 100%). Corresponding efficacy against prevalent cervical HPV16/18 infection for the same cohort at the same visit was 72·0% (95% CI = 63% to 79%) (p versus oral VE = 0·04). There was no statistically significant protection against other oral HPV infections, though power was limited for these analyses.

Conclusions

HPV prevalence four years after vaccination with the ASO4-adjuvanted HPV16/18 vaccine was much lower among women in the vaccine arm compared to the control arm, suggesting that the vaccine affords strong protection against oral HPV16/18 infection, with potentially important implications for prevention of increasingly common HPV-associated oropharyngeal cancer.ClinicalTrials.gov, Registry number {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00128661","term_id":"NCT00128661"}}NCT00128661     

Prevalence of DNA-HPV in male sexual partners of HPV-infected women and concordance of viral types in infected couples

Investigation of HPV infection in men remains important due to its association with genital warts and anorectal cancer, as well as to the role men play in HPV transmission to their female sexual partners. Asymptomatic men (n = 43), whose sexual partners had presented cervical HPV infection, were enrolled in this study. Among the 43 men, 23 had their female partner included and tested for HPV-DNA, totaling 23 couples. HPV-DNA was detected by PCR. Type specific PCR to detect HPV 16, 18, 31, 33, 45 and 6/11 was performed. At least one type of HPV was detected in 86.0% (37/43) of the male patients and more than one HPV type was identified in 39.5% (17/43) of the samples, including high and low risk HPV. HPV-16 proved to be the most prevalent viral type in both male and female samples. Concordance of at least one viral type was observed in 56.5% (13/23) of the couples. Among couples that have shown concordance of viral types, 84.6% (11/13) of the men had the same high risk viral type presented by the female sexual partner. These data suggest that HPV infected men is an important reservoir, contributing to a higher transmission to women and maintenance of infection, and consequently, a higher risk of developing cervical cancer. HPV vaccination in men will protect not only them but will also have implications for their sexual partners.     

Vaccination of rabbits with an adenovirus vector expressing the papillomavirus E2 protein leads to clearance of papillomas and infection

Cervical cancer arises from lesions caused by infection with high-risk types of human papillomavirus (HPV). Therefore, vaccination against HPV could prevent carcinogenesis by preventing HPV infection or inducing lesion regression. HPV E2 protein is an attractive candidate for vaccine development because it is required for papilloma formation, is involved in all stages of the virus life cycle, and is expressed in all premalignant lesions as well as some cancers. This study reports vaccination against E2 protein using a rabbit model of papillomavirus infection. A recombinant adenovirus (Ad) vector expressing the E2 protein of cottontail rabbit papillomavirus (CRPV) was tested for therapeutic efficacy in CRPV-infected rabbits. Primary immunization with the Ad-E2 vaccine, compared to immunization with a control Ad vector, reduced the number of papilloma-forming sites from 17 of 45 to 4 of 45. After booster immunization, vaccinated rabbits formed no new papillomas versus an additional 23 papillomas in rabbits that received the control vector. Papillomas in the Ad-E2 vaccinees were significantly smaller than those in the control rabbits, and all four papillomas in the Ad-E2 vaccinated rabbits regressed. No CRPV DNA was detected either in the regression sites or in sites that did not form papillomas, indicating that the vaccination led to clearance of CRPV from all infected sites.     

Development of AAVLP(HPV16/31L2) particles as broadly protective HPV vaccine candidate

The human papillomavirus (HPV) minor capsid protein L2 is a promising candidate for a broadly protective HPV vaccine yet the titers obtained in most experimental systems are rather low. Here we examine the potential of empty AAV2 particles (AAVLPs), assembled from VP3 alone, for display of L2 epitopes to enhance their immunogenicity. Insertion of a neutralizing epitope (amino acids 17-36) from L2 of HPV16 and HPV31 into VP3 at positions 587 and 453, respectively, permitted assembly into empty AAV particles (AAVLP(HPV16/31L2)). Intramuscularly vaccination of mice and rabbits with AAVLP(HPV16/31L2)s in montanide adjuvant, induced high titers of HPV16 L2 antibodies as measured by ELISA. Sera obtained from animals vaccinated with the AAVLP(HPV16/31L2)s neutralized infections with several HPV types in a pseudovirion infection assay. Lyophilized AAVLP(HPV16/31L2) particles retained their immunogenicity upon reconstitution. Interestingly, vaccination of animals that were pre-immunized with AAV2--simulating the high prevalence of AAV2 antibodies in the population--even increased cross neutralization against HPV31, 45 and 58 types. Finally, passive transfer of rabbit antisera directed against AAVLP(HPV16/31L2)s protected na?ve mice from vaginal challenge with HPV16 pseudovirions. In conclusion, AAVLP(HPV16/31L2) particles have the potential as a broadly protective vaccine candidate regardless of prior exposure to AAV.     

Inference of Type-Specific HPV Transmissibility,Progression and Clearance Rates: A Mathematical Modelling Approach

Quantifying rates governing the clearance of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) and its progression to clinical disease, together with viral transmissibility and the duration of naturally-acquired immunity, is essential in estimating the impact of vaccination programmes and screening or testing regimes. However, the complex natural history of HPV makes this difficult. We infer the viral transmissibility, rate of waning natural immunity and rates of progression and clearance of infection of 13 high-risk and 2 non-oncogenic HPV types, making use of a number of rich datasets from Sweden. Estimates of viral transmissibility, clearance of initial infection and waning immunity were derived in a Bayesian framework by fitting a susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) transmission model to age- and type-specific HPV prevalence data from both a cross-sectional study and a randomised controlled trial (RCT) of primary HPV screening. The models fitted well, but over-estimated the prevalence of four high-risk types with respect to the data. Three of these types (HPV-33, -35 and -58) are among the most closely related phylogenetically to the most prevalent HPV-16. The fourth (HPV-45) is the most closely related to HPV-18; the second most prevalent type. We suggest that this may be an indicator of cross-immunity. Rates of progression and clearance of clinical lesions were additionally estimated from longitudinal data gathered as part of the same RCT. Our estimates of progression and clearance rates are consistent with the findings of survival analysis studies and we extend the literature by estimating progression and clearance rates for non-16 and non-18 high-risk types. We anticipate that such type-specific estimates will be useful in the parameterisation of further models and in developing our understanding of HPV natural history.     

Costs and Cost-Effectiveness of 9-Valent Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Vaccination in Two East African Countries

Background

Current prophylactic vaccines against human papillomavirus (HPV) target two of the most oncogenic types, HPV-16 and -18, which contribute to roughly 70% of cervical cancers worldwide. Second-generation HPV vaccines include a 9-valent vaccine, which targets five additional oncogenic HPV types (i.e., 31, 33, 45, 52, and 58) that contribute to another 15–30% of cervical cancer cases. The objective of this study was to determine a range of vaccine costs for which the 9-valent vaccine would be cost-effective in comparison to the current vaccines in two less developed countries (i.e., Kenya and Uganda).

Methods and Findings

The analysis was performed using a natural history disease simulation model of HPV and cervical cancer. The mathematical model simulates individual women from an early age and tracks health events and resource use as they transition through clinically-relevant health states over their lifetime. Epidemiological data on HPV prevalence and cancer incidence were used to adapt the model to Kenya and Uganda. Health benefit, or effectiveness, from HPV vaccination was measured in terms of life expectancy, and costs were measured in international dollars (I$). The incremental cost of the 9-valent vaccine included the added cost of the vaccine counterbalanced by costs averted from additional cancer cases prevented. All future costs and health benefits were discounted at an annual rate of 3% in the base case analysis. We conducted sensitivity analyses to investigate how infection with multiple HPV types, unidentifiable HPV types in cancer cases, and cross-protection against non-vaccine types could affect the potential cost range of the 9-valent vaccine. In the base case analysis in Kenya, we found that vaccination with the 9-valent vaccine was very cost-effective (i.e., had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio below per-capita GDP), compared to the current vaccines provided the added cost of the 9-valent vaccine did not exceed I$9.7 per vaccinated girl. To be considered very cost-effective, the added cost per vaccinated girl could go up to I$5.2 and I$16.2 in the worst-case and best-case scenarios, respectively. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of three times per-capita GDP where the 9-valent vaccine would be considered cost-effective, the thresholds of added costs associated with the 9-valent vaccine were I$27.3, I$14.5 and I$45.3 per vaccinated girl for the base case, worst-case and best-case scenarios, respectively. In Uganda, vaccination with the 9-valent vaccine was very cost-effective when the added cost of the 9-valent vaccine did not exceed I$8.3 per vaccinated girl. To be considered very cost-effective, the added cost per vaccinated girl could go up to I$4.5 and I$13.7 in the worst-case and best-case scenarios, respectively. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of three times per-capita GDP, the thresholds of added costs associated with the 9-valent vaccine were I$23.4, I$12.6 and I$38.4 per vaccinated girl for the base case, worst-case and best-case scenarios, respectively.

Conclusions

This study provides a threshold range of incremental costs associated with the 9-valent HPV vaccine that would make it a cost-effective intervention in comparison to currently available HPV vaccines in Kenya and Uganda. These prices represent a 71% and 61% increase over the price offered to the GAVI Alliance ($5 per dose) for the currently available 2- and 4-valent vaccines in Kenya and Uganda, respectively. Despite evidence of cost-effectiveness, critical challenges around affordability and feasibility of HPV vaccination and other competing needs in low-resource settings such as Kenya and Uganda remain.     

Potential Benefits of Second-Generation Human Papillomavirus Vaccines

Background

Current prophylactic vaccines against human papillomavirus (HPV) target two oncogenic types (16 and 18) that contribute to 70% of cervical cancer cases worldwide. Our objective was to quantify the range of additional benefits conferred by second-generation HPV prophylactic vaccines that are expected to expand protection to five additional oncogenic types (31, 33, 45, 52 and 58).

Methods

A microsimulation model of HPV and cervical cancer calibrated to epidemiological data from two countries (Kenya and Uganda) was used to estimate reductions in lifetime risk of cervical cancer from the second-generation HPV vaccines. We explored the independent and joint impact of uncertain factors (i.e., distribution of HPV types, co-infection with multiple HPV types, and unidentifiable HPV types in cancer) and vaccine properties (i.e., cross-protection against non-targeted HPV types), compared against currently-available vaccines.

Results

Assuming complete uptake of the second-generation vaccine, reductions in lifetime cancer risk were 86.3% in Kenya and 91.8% in Uganda, representing an absolute increase in cervical cancer reduction of 26.1% in Kenya and 17.9% in Uganda, compared with complete uptake of current vaccines. The range of added benefits was 19.6% to 29.1% in Kenya and 14.0% to 19.5% in Uganda, depending on assumptions of cancers attributable to multiple HPV infections and unidentifiable HPV types. These effects were blunted in both countries when assuming vaccine cross-protection with both the current and second-generation vaccines.

Conclusion

Second-generation HPV vaccines that protect against additional oncogenic HPV types have the potential to improve cervical cancer prevention. Co-infection with multiple HPV infections and unidentifiable HPV types can influence vaccine effectiveness, but the magnitude of effect may be moderated by vaccine cross-protective effects. These benefits must be weighed against the cost of the vaccines in future analyses.     

Sexual Behaviour and HPV Infections in 18 to 29 Year Old Women in the Pre-Vaccine Era in the Netherlands

Background

Infection with Human Papillomavirus (HPV) is a necessary event in the multi-step process of cervical carcinogenesis. Little is known about the natural history of HPV infection among unscreened young adults. As prophylactic vaccines are being developed to prevent specifically HPV 16 and 18 infections, shifts in prevalence in the post vaccine era may be expected. This study provides a unique opportunity to gather baseline data before changes by nationwide vaccination occur.

Methods and Principal Findings

This cross-sectional study is part of a large prospective epidemiologic study performed among 2065 unscreened women aged 18 to 29 years. Women returned a self-collected cervico-vaginal specimen and filled out a questionnaire. All HPV DNA-positive samples (by SPF₁₀ DEIA) were genotyped using the INNO-LiPA HPV genotyping assay. HPV point prevalence in this sample was 19%. Low and high risk HPV prevalence was 9.1% and 11.8%, respectively. A single HPV-type was detected in 14.9% of all women, while multiple types were found in 4.1%. HPV-types 16 (2.8%) and 18 (1.4%) were found concomitantly in only 3 women (0.1%). There was an increase in HPV prevalence till 22 years. Multivariate analysis showed that number of lifetime sexual partners was the most powerful predictor of HPV positivity, followed by type of relationship, frequency of sexual contact, age, and number of sexual partners over the past 6 months.

Conclusions and Significance

This study shows that factors independently associated with HPV prevalence are mainly related to sexual behaviour. Combination of these results with the relative low prevalence of HPV 16 and/or 18 may be promising for expanding the future target group for catch up vaccination. Furthermore, these results provide a basis for research on possible future shifts in HPV genotype prevalence, and enable a better estimate of the effect of HPV 16-18 vaccination on cervical cancer incidence.     

Epidemiological Impact of a Genital Herpes Type 2 Vaccine for Young Females

Genital Herpes, which is caused by Herpes Simplex Virus-1 or -2 (HSV-1, -2, predominantly HSV-2) is a sexually transmitted infection (STI) that causes a chronic latent infection with outbreak episodes linked to transmission. Antiviral therapies are effective in reducing viral shedding during these episodes, but are ineffective as a whole since many outbreaks are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms. Thus, the development of a vaccine for genital herpes is needed to control this disease. The question of how to implement such a vaccine program is an important one, and may be similar to the vaccination program for Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) for young females. We have developed a mathematical model to describe the epidemiology of vaccination targeting young females against HSV-2. The model population is delineated with respect to age group, sexual activity and infection status including oral infection of HSV-1, which may affect vaccine efficacy. A threshold parameter , which determines the level of vaccine uptake needed to eradicate HSV-2, is found. Computer simulation shows that an adolescent-only vaccination program may be effective in eliminating HSV-2 disease, however, the success of extinction greatly depends on the level of vaccine uptake, the vaccine efficacy, the age of sexual maturity and safe sex practices. However, the time course of eradication would take many years. We also investigate the prevalence of infection in the total population and in women between 16–30 years of age before and after vaccination has been introduced, and show that the adolescent-only vaccination program can be effective in reducing disease prevalence in these populations depending on the level of vaccine uptake and vaccine efficacy. This will also result in a decrease of maternal-fetal transmission of HSV-2 infection. Another important, if commonsense, conclusion is that vaccination of some females reduces infection in men, which then reduces infection in women.