Hot Spots, Cold Spots, and the Geographic Mosaic Theory of Coevolution

Species interactions commonly coevolve as complex geographic mosaics of populations shaped by differences in local selection and gene flow. We use a haploid matching-alleles model for coevolution to evaluate how a pair of species coevolves when fitness interactions are reciprocal in some locations ("hot spots") but not in others ("cold spots"). Our analyses consider mutualistic and antagonistic interspecific interactions and a variety of gene flow patterns between hot and cold spots. We found that hot and cold spots together with gene flow influence coevolutionary dynamics in four important ways. First, hot spots need not be ubiquitous to have a global influence on evolution, although rare hot spots will not have a disproportionate impact unless selection is relatively strong there. Second, asymmetries in gene flow can influence local adaptation, sometimes creating stable equilibria at which species experience minimal fitness in hot spots and maximal fitness in cold spots, or vice versa. Third, asymmetries in gene flow are no more important than asymmetries in population regulation for determining the maintenance of local polymorphisms through coevolution. Fourth, intraspecific allele frequency differences among hot and cold spot populations evolve under some, but not all, conditions. That is, selection mosaics are indeed capable of producing spatially variable coevolutionary outcomes across the landscapes over which species interact. Altogether, our analyses indicate that coevolutionary trajectories can be strongly shaped by the geographic distribution of coevolutionary hot and cold spots, and by the pattern of gene flow among populations.     

Dos and don'ts of testing the geographic mosaic theory of coevolution

The geographic mosaic theory of coevolution is stimulating much new research on interspecific interactions. We provide a guide to the fundamental components of the theory, its processes and main predictions. Our primary objectives are to clarify misconceptions regarding the geographic mosaic theory of coevolution and to describe how empiricists can test the theory rigorously. In particular, we explain why confirming the three main predicted empirical patterns (spatial variation in traits mediating interactions among species, trait mismatching among interacting species and few species-level coevolved traits) does not provide unequivocal support for the theory. We suggest that strong empirical tests of the geographic mosaic theory of coevolution should focus on its underlying processes: coevolutionary hot and cold spots, selection mosaics and trait remixing. We describe these processes and discuss potential ways each can be tested.     

Coevolution between hosts and parasites with partially overlapping geographic ranges

Many host species interact with a specific parasite within only a fraction of their geographical range. Where host and parasite overlap geographically, selection may be reciprocal constituting a coevolutionary hot spot. Host evolution, however, may be driven primarily by selection imposed by alternative biotic or abiotic factors that occur outside such hot spots. To evaluate the importance of coevolutionary hot spots for host and parasite evolution, we analyse a spatially explicit genetic model for a host that overlaps with a parasite in only part of its geographical range. Our results show that there is a critical amount of overlap beyond which reciprocal selection leads to a coevolutionary response in the host. This critical amount of overlap depends upon the explicit spatial configuration of hot spots. When the amount of overlap exceeds this first critical level, host-parasite coevolution commonly generates stable allele frequency clines rather than oscillations. It is within this region that one of the primary predictions of the geographic mosaic theory is realized, and local maladaptation is prevalent in both species. Past a further threshold of overlap between the species oscillations do evolve, but allele frequencies in both species are spatially synchronous and local maladaptation is absent in both species. A consequence of such transitions between coevolutionary dynamics is that parasite adaptation is inversely proportional to the fraction of its host's range that it occupies. Hence, as the geographical range of a parasite increases, it becomes increasingly maladapted to the host. This suggests a novel mechanism through which the geographical range of parasites may be limited.     

Gene flow and geographically structured coevolution

Many of the dynamic properties of coevolution may occur at the level of interacting populations, with local adaptation acting as a force of diversification, as migration between populations homogenizes these isolated interactions. This interplay between local adaptation and migration may be particularly important in structuring interactions that vary from mutualism to antagonism across the range of an interacting set of species, such as those between some plants and their insect herbivores, mammals and trypanosome parasites, and bacteria and plasmids that confer antibiotic resistance. Here we present a simple geographically structured genetic model of a coevolutionary interaction that varies between mutualism and antagonism among communities linked by migration. Inclusion of geographic structure with gene flow alters the outcomes of local interactions and allows the maintenance of allelic polymorphism across all communities under a range of selection intensities and rates of migration. Furthermore, inclusion of geographic structure with gene flow allows fixed mutualisms to be evolutionarily stable within both communities, even when selection on the interaction is antagonistic within one community. Moreover, the model demonstrates that the inclusion of geographic structure with gene flow may lead to considerable local maladaptation and trait mismatching as predicted by the geographic mosaic theory of coevolution.     

Coevolutionary clines across selection mosaics

Abstract. Much of the dynamics of coevolution may be driven by the interplay between geographic variation in reciprocal selection (selection mosaics) and the homogenizing action of gene flow. We develop a genetic model of geographically structured coevolution in which gene flow links coevolving communities that may differ in both the direction and magnitude of reciprocal selection. The results show that geographically structured coevolution may lead to allele-frequency clines within both interacting species when fitnesses are spatially uniform or spatially heterogeneous. Furthermore, the results show that the behavior and shape of clines differ dramatically among different types of coevolutionary interaction. Antagonistic interactions produce dynamic clines that change shape rapidly through time, producing shifting patterns of local adaptation and maladaptation. Unlike antagonistic interactions, mutualisms generate stable equilibrium patterns that lead to fixed spatial patterns of adaptation. Interactions that vary between mutualism and antagonism produce both equilibrium and dynamic clines. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that these interactions may allow mutualisms to persist throughout the geographic range of an interaction, despite pockets of locally antagonistic selection. In all cases, the coevolved spatial patterns of allele frequencies are sensitive to the relative contributions of gene flow, selection, and overall habitat size, indicating that the appropriate scale for studies of geographically structured coevolution depends on the relative contributions of each of these factors.     

Coevolution and maladaptation

Many of the most commonly cited examples of exquisite adaptationare of coevolved symbioses. As we learn more about the coevolutionaryprocess, however, it is becoming increasingly evident that coevolutionmay also keep populations moderately maladapted much of thetime. As a result, coevolving populations may only rarely occupyadaptive peaks, because the selective landscape is under continualchange through reciprocal selection on the species themselves.These shifting patterns of coadaptation are further shaped bythe geographic structure of most species. Selection mosaicsacross landscapes and coevolutionary hotspots can favor differentevolutionary trajectories in different populations. The combinedaction of gene flow, random genetic drift, and local extinctionof populations may then continually remold these local patterns,creating a geographic mosaic in the degrees of maladaptationfound within local interactions. Recent mathematical modelsof the geographic mosaic of coevolution suggest that complexmosaics of maladaptation are a likely consequence of spatiallystructured species interactions. These models indicate thatthe spatial structure of maladaptation may depend upon the typeof coevolutionary interaction, the underlying selection mosaic,and patterns of gene flow across landscapes. By maintaininglocal polymorphisms and driving the divergence of populations,coevolution may produce spatial patterns of maladaptation thatare a source of ongoing innovation and diversification in speciesinteractions.     

Genetic dimension of the coevolution of virulence-resistance in Drosophila -- parasitoid wasp relationships

Variations observed in parasite virulence and host resistance may be the outcome of coevolutionary processes. Recent theoretical developments have led to a 'geographic mosaic theory' of coevolution according to which there are some localities where reciprocal selection occurs (hot spots) and others where it is strongly reduced (cold spots). Studies of host-parasitoid systems back this up, revealing a geographical variation of traits subjected to antagonistic selection governed by variations in the strength of the ecological interactions. A more detailed analysis of the genetic basis of these geographic variations in a model system -- the interaction between Drosophila melanogaster and its specific parasitoid Leptopilina boulardi -- suggests that cold spots and hot spots are also driven by the amount of genetic variation available for the trait considered. Our approach, based on isolating reference strains, has been found to predict the result of sympatric interactions and it will be helpful in identifying the selective forces responsible for the coevolution. In this model, host resistance to a standardised reference strain is a weak predictor of the outcome of interactions in the field, and the main parameter accounting for the geographic variations is the number of host species available, with less parasitoid virulence towards D. melanogaster being found in areas displaying a more diversified host community.     

Large scale geographic clines of parasite damage to Populus tremula L.

According to the geographic mosaic theory of coevolution (GMTC), clines of traits reflecting local co‐adaptation (including resistance genes) should be common between a host and its parasite and should persist across time. To test the GMTC‐assumption of persistent clinal patterns we compared the natural prevalence of two parasites on aspen Populus tremula trees: mining moths of the genus Phyllocnistis and leaf rust Melampsora spp. Damage data were collated from the Swedish National Forest Damage Inventory (2004–2006). In addition, occurrence of the parasites was scored in field conditions in two common gardens in the north and south of Sweden over five growing seasons (2004–2008), then related to biomass (stem height and diameter) and to concentrations of eleven leaf phenolics. Phyllocnistis mainly occurred in the northern garden, a distribution range which was confirmed by the countrywide inventory, although Phyllocnistis was more abundant on southern clones, providing evidence for possible local maladaptation. Melampsora occurred all over the country and in both gardens, but built up more quickly on northern clones, which suggests a centre of local clone maladaptation in the north. Stem growth also followed a clinal pattern as did the concentration of three phenolic compounds: benzoic acid, catechin and cinnamic acid. However, only benzoic acid was related to parasite presence: negatively to Phyllocnistis and positively to Melampsora and it could thus be a potential trait under selection. In conclusion, clines of Phyllocnistis were stronger and more persistent compared to Melampsora, which showed contrasting clines of varying strength. Our data thus support the assumption of the GMTC model that clines exist in the border between hot and cold spots and that they may be less persistent for parasites with an elevated gene flow, and/or for parasites which cover relatively larger hot spots surrounded by fewer cold spots.     

Polygenic traits and parasite local adaptation

The extent to which parasites are locally adapted to their hosts has important implications for human health and agriculture. A recently developed conceptual framework--the geographic mosaic theory of coevolution--predicts that local maladaptation should be common and largely determined by the interplay between gene flow and spatially variable reciprocal selection. Previous investigation of this theory has predominately focused on genetic systems of infection and resistance characterized by few genes of major effect and particular forms of epistasis. Here we extend existing theory by analyzing mathematical models of host-parasite interactions in which host resistance to parasites is mediated by quantitative traits with an additive polygenic basis. In contrast to previous theoretical studies predicated upon major gene mechanisms, we find that parasite local maladaptation is quite uncommon and restricted to one specific functional form of host resistance. Furthermore, our results show that local maladaptation should be rare or absent in studies that measure local adaptation using reciprocal transplant designs conducted in natural environments. Our results thus narrow the scope over which the predictions of the geographic mosaic theory are likely to hold and provide novel and readily testable predictions about when and where local maladaptation is expected.     

The potential of a population genomics approach to analyse geographic mosaics of plant--insect coevolution

A central issue in the evolutionary ecology of species interactions is coevolution, which involves the reciprocal selection between individuals of interacting species. Understanding the importance of coevolution in shaping species interactions requires the consideration of spatial variation in their strength. This is exactly what the, recently developed, geographic mosaic theory of coevolution addresses. Another major development in the study of population ecology is the introduction of the population genomics approach in this field of research. This approach addresses spatial processes through molecular methods. It is of particular interest that population genomics is especially applicable to natural populations of non-model species. We describe how population genomics can be used in the context of the geographic mosaic of coevolution, specifically to identify coevolutionary hot-spots, and to attribute genetic variation found at specific loci to processes of selection versus trait remixing. The proposed integration of the population genomics approach with the conceptual framework of the geographic mosaic of coevolution is illustrated with a few selected, particularly demonstrative, examples from the realm of insect--plant interactions.     

Hot spots become cold spots: coevolution in variable temperature environments

Antagonistic coevolution between hosts and parasites is a key process in the genesis and maintenance of biological diversity. Whereas coevolutionary dynamics show distinct patterns under favourable environmental conditions, the effects of more realistic, variable conditions are largely unknown. We investigated the impact of a fluctuating environment on antagonistic coevolution in experimental microcosms of Pseudomonas fluorescens SBW25 and lytic phage SBWΦ2. High‐frequency temperature fluctuations caused no deviations from typical coevolutionary arms race dynamics. However, coevolution was stalled during periods of high temperature under intermediate‐ and low‐frequency fluctuations, generating temporary coevolutionary cold spots. Temperature variation affected population density, providing evidence that eco‐evolutionary feedbacks act through variable bacteria–phage encounter rates. Our study shows that environmental fluctuations can drive antagonistic species interactions into and out of coevolutionary cold and hot spots. Whether coevolution persists or stalls depends on the frequency of change and the environmental optima of both interacting players.     

The evolutionary response of predators to dangerous prey: hotspots and coldspots in the geographic mosaic of coevolution between garter snakes and newts

The "geographic mosaic" approach to understanding coevolution is predicated on the existence of variable selection across the landscape of an interaction between species. A range of ecological factors, from differences in resource availability to differences in community composition, can generate such a mosaic of selection among populations, and thereby differences in the strength of coevolution. The result is a mixture of hotspots, where reciprocal selection is strong, and coldspots, where reciprocal selection is weak or absent, throughout the ranges of species. Population subdivision further provides the opportunity for nonadaptive forces, including gene flow, drift, and metapopulation dynamics, to influence the coevolutionary interaction between species. Some predicted results of this geographic mosaic of coevolution include maladapted or mismatched phenotypes, maintenance of high levels of polymorphism, and prevention of stable equilibrium trait combinations. To evaluate the potential for the geographic mosaic to influence predator-prey coevolution, we investigated the geographic pattern of genetically determined TTX resistance in the garter snake Thamnophis sirtalis over much of the range of its ecological interaction with toxic newts of genus Taricha. We assayed TTX resistance in over 2900 garter snakes representing 333 families from 40 populations throughout western North America. Our results provide dramatic evidence that geographic structure is an important component in coevolutionary interactions between predators and prey. Resistance levels vary substantially (over three orders of magnitude) among populations and over short distances. The spatial array of variation is consistent with two areas of intense evolutionary response by predators ("hotspots") surrounded by clines of decreasing resistance. Some general predictions of the geographic mosaic process are supported, including clinal variation in phenotypes, polymorphism in some populations, and divergent outcomes of the interaction between predator and prey. Conversely, our data provide little support for one of the major predictions, mismatched values of interacting traits. Two lines of evidence suggest selection is paramount in determining population variation in resistance. First, phylogenetic information indicates that two hotspots of TTX resistance have evolved independently. Second, in the one region that TTX levels in prey have been quantified, resistance and toxicity levels match almost perfectly over a wide phenotypic and geographic range. However, these results do not preclude the role the nonadaptive forces in generating the overall geographic mosaic of TTX resistance. Much work remains to fill in the geographic pattern of variation among prey populations and, just as importantly, to explore the variation in the ecology of the interaction that occurs within populations.     

The coevolutionary dynamics of antagonistic interactions mediated by quantitative traits with evolving variances

Quantitative traits frequently mediate coevolutionary interactions between predator and prey or parasite and host. Previous efforts to understand and predict the coevolutionary dynamics of these interactions have generally assumed that standing genetic variation is fixed or absent altogether. We develop a genetically explicit model of coevolution that bridges the gap between these approaches by allowing genetic variation itself to evolve. Analysis of this model shows that the evolution of genetic variance has important consequences for the dynamics and outcome of coevolution. Of particular importance is our demonstration that coevolutionary cycles can emerge in the absence of stabilizing selection, an outcome not possible in previous models of coevolution mediated by quantitative traits. Whether coevolutionary cycles evolve depends upon the strength of selection, the number of loci, and the rate of mutation in each of the interacting species. Our results also generate novel predictions for the expected sign and magnitude of linkage disequilibria in each species.     

Local adaptation and maladaptation to pollinators in a generalist geographic mosaic

The Geographic Mosaic Theory of Coevolution predicts the occurrence of mosaics of interaction-mediated local adaptations and maladaptations. Empirical support to this prediction has come mostly from specialist interactions. In contrast, local adaptation is considered highly unlikely in generalist interactions. In this study, we experimentally test local adaptation in a generalist plant-pollinator geographic mosaic, by means of a transplant experiment in which plants coming from two evolutionary hotspots and two coldspots were offered to pollinators at the same four localities. Plants produced in the hotspots attracted more pollinators in all populations, whereas coldspot plants attracted fewer pollinators in all populations. Differences in adaptation were not related to genetic similarity between populations, suggesting that it was mainly due to spatial variation in previous selective regimes. Our experiment provides the first strong support for a spatially structured pattern of adaptation and maladaptation generated by a generalist free-living mutualism.     

Coevolution in temporally variable environments

Many potentially mutualistic interactions are conditional, with selection that varies between mutualism and antagonism over space and time. We develop a genetic model of temporally variable coevolution that incorporates stochastic fluctuations between mutualism and antagonism. We use this model to determine conditions necessary for the coevolution of matching traits between a host and a conditional mutualist. Using an analytical approximation, we show that matching traits will coevolve when the geometric mean interaction is mutualistic. When this condition does not hold, polymorphism and trait mismatching are maintained, and coevolutionary cycles may result. Numerical simulations verify this prediction and suggest that it remains robust in the presence of temporal autocorrelation. These results are compared with those from spatial models with unrestricted movement. The comparisons demonstrate that gene flow is unnecessary for generating empirical patterns predicted by the geographic mosaic theory of coevolution.     

Cuckoo parasitism and productivity in different magpie subpopulations predict frequencies of the 457bp allele: a mosaic of coevolution at a small geographic scale

The level of defense against great spotted cuckoo (Clamator glandarius) parasitism in different European populations of magpie (Pica pica) depends on selection pressures due to parasitism and gene flow between populations, which suggests the existence of coevolutionary hot spots within a European metapopulation. A mosaic of coevolution is theoretically possible at small geographical scales and with strong gene flow, because, among other reasons, plots may differ in productivity (i.e., reproductive success of hosts in the absence of parasitism) and defensive genotypes theoretically should be more common in plots of high productivity. Here, we tested this prediction by exploring the relationship between parasitism rate, level of defense against parasitism (estimated as both rejection rate and the frequency of the 457bp microsatellite allele associated with foreign egg rejection in magpies), and some variables related to the productivity (average laying date, clutch size, and number of hatchlings per nest) of magpies breeding in different subpopulations. We found that both estimates of defensive ability (egg rejection rate and frequency of the 457bp allele) covaried significantly with between-plot differences in probability of parasitism, laying date, and number of hatchlings per nest. Moreover, the parasitism rate was larger in more productive plots. These results confirm the existence of a mosaic of coevolution at a very local geographical scale, and the association between laying date and number of hatchlings with variables related to defensive ability and the selection pressure arising from parasitism supports the prediction of coevolutionary gradients in relation to host productivity.     

Arms Race Coevolution: The Local and Geographical Structure of a Host–Parasite Interaction

Consideration of complex geographic patterns of reciprocal adaptation has provided insight into new features of the coevolutionary process. In this paper, we provide ecological, historical, and geographical evidence for coevolution under complex temporal and spatial scenarios that include intermittent selection, species turnover across localities, and a range of trait match/mismatch across populations. Our study focuses on a plant host–parasitic plant interaction endemic to arid and semiarid regions of Chile. The long spines of Chilean cacti have been suggested to evolve under parasite-mediated selection as a first line of defense against the mistletoe Tristerix aphyllus. The mistletoe, in turn, has evolved an extremely long morphological structure that emerges from the seed endosperm (radicle) to reach the host cuticle. When spine length was traced along cactus phylogenies, a significant association between spine length and parasitism was detected, indicating that defensive traits evolved in high correspondence with the presence or absence of parasitism in two cactus lineages. Assessment of spine-radicle matching across populations revealed a potential for coevolution in 50% of interaction pairs. Interestingly, hot spots for coevolution did not distribute at random across sites. On the contrary, interaction pairs showing high matching values occur mostly in the northern distribution of the interaction, suggesting a geographical structure for coevolution in this system. Only three sampled interaction pairs were so mismatched that reciprocal selection could not occur given current trait distributions. Overall, different lines of evidence indicate that arms-race coevolution is an ongoing phenomenon that occurs in the global system of interconnected populations.     

Evolutionary diversification through hybridization in a wild host-pathogen interaction

Coevolutionary outcomes between interacting species are predicted to vary across landscapes, as environmental conditions, gene flow, and the strength of selection vary among populations. Using a combination of molecular, experimental, and field approaches, we describe how broad-scale patterns of environmental heterogeneity, genetic divergence, and regional adaptation have the potential to influence coevolutionary processes in the Linum marginale-Melampsora lini plant-pathogen interaction. We show that two genetically and geographically divergent pathogen lineages dominate interactions with the host across Australia, and demonstrate a hybrid origin for one of the lineages. We further demonstrate that the geographic divergence of the two lineages of M. lini in Australia is related to variation among lineages in virulence, life-history characteristics, and response to environmental conditions. When correlated with data describing regional patterns of variation in host resistance diversity and mating system these observations highlight the potential for gene flow and geographic selection mosaics to generate and maintain coevolutionary diversification in long-standing host-pathogen interactions.     

Eco-evolutionary metapopulation dynamics and the spatial scale of adaptation

We construct a model that combines extinction-colonization dynamics with the dynamics of local adaptation in a network of habitat patches of dissimilar qualities. We derive a deterministic approximation for the stochastic model that allows the calculation of patch-specific incidences of occupancy and levels of adaptation at steady state. Depending on (i) the strength of local selection, (ii) the amount of genetic variance, (iii) the demographic cost of maladaptation, (iv) the spatial scale of gene flow, and (v) the amount of habitat heterogeneity, the model predicts adaptation at different spatial scales. Local adaptation is predicted when there is much genetic variance and strong selection, while network-level adaptation occurs when the demographic cost of maladaptation is low. For little genetic variance and high cost of maladaptation, the model predicts network-level habitat specialization in species with long-range migration but an intermediate scale of adaptation (mosaic specialization) in species with short-range migration. In fragmented landscapes, the evolutionary dynamics of adaptation may both decrease and enhance metapopulation viability in comparison with no evolution. The model can be applied to real patch networks with given sizes, qualities, and spatial positions of habitat patches.     

The influence of a competitor on the geographic mosaic of coevolution between crossbills and lodgepole pine

The geographic mosaic theory of coevolution posits that the form of selection between interacting species varies across a landscape with coevolution important and active in some locations (i.e., coevolutionary hotspots) but not in others (i.e., coevolutionary coldspots). We tested the hypothesis that the presence of red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) affects the occurrence of coevolution between red crossbills (Loxia curvirostra complex) and Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta ssp. latifolia) and thereby provides a mechanism giving rise to a geographic mosaic of selection. Red squirrels are the predominant predispersal seed predator and selective agent on lodgepole pine cones. However, in four isolated mountain ranges east and west of the Rocky Mountains, red squirrels are absent and red crossbills are the main predispersal seed predator. These isolated populations of pine have apparently evolved without Tamiasciurus for about 10,000 to 12,000 years. Based on published morphological, genetic, and paleobotanical studies, we infer that cone traits in these isolated populations that show parallel differences from cones in the Rocky Mountains have changed in parallel. We used data on crossbill and conifer cone morphology and feeding preferences and efficiency to detect whether red crossbills and lodgepole pine exhibit reciprocal adaptations, which would imply coevolution. Cone traits that act to deter Tamiasciurus and result in high ratios of cone mass to seed mass were less developed in the isolated populations. Cone traits that act to deter crossbills include larger and thicker scales and perhaps increased overlap between successive scales and were enhanced in the isolated populations. In the larger, isolated mountain ranges crossbills have evolved deeper, shorter, and therefore more decurved bills to exploit these cones. This provides crossbills with higher feeding rates, and the change in bill shape has improved efficiency by reducing the concomitant increases in body mass and daily energy expenditures that would have resulted if only bill size had increased. These parallel adaptations and counter adaptations in red crossbills and lodgepole pine are interpreted as reciprocal adaptations and imply that these crossbills and pine are in coevolutionary arms races where red squirrels are absent (i.e., coevolutionary hotspots) but not where red squirrels are present (i.e., coevolutionary cold-spots).