Habitat Selection of Rocky Mountain Elk in a Nonforested Environment

Abstract: Recent expansions by Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus) into nonforested habitats across the Intermountain West have required managers to reconsider the traditional paradigms of forage and cover as they relate to managing elk and their habitats. We examined seasonal habitat selection patterns of a hunted elk population in a nonforested high-desert region of southwestern Wyoming, USA. We used 35,246 global positioning system locations collected from 33 adult female elk to model probability of use as a function of 6 habitat variables: slope, aspect, elevation, habitat diversity, distance to shrub cover, and distance to road. We developed resource selection probability functions for individual elk, and then we averaged the coefficients to estimate population-level models for summer and winter periods. We used the population-level models to generate predictive maps by assigning pixels across the study area to 1 of 4 use categories (i.e., high, medium-high, medium-low, or low), based on quartiles of the predictions. Model coefficients and predictive maps indicated that elk selected for summer habitats characterized by higher elevations in areas of high vegetative diversity, close to shrub cover, northerly aspects, moderate slopes, and away from roads. Winter habitat selection patterns were similar, except elk shifted to areas with lower elevations and southerly aspects. We validated predictive maps by using 528 locations collected from an independent sample of radiomarked elk (n = 55) and calculating the proportion of locations that occurred in each of the 4 use categories. Together, the high- and medium-high use categories of the summer and winter predictive maps contained 92% and 74% of summer and winter elk locations, respectively. Our population-level models and associated predictive maps were successful in predicting winter and summer habitat use by elk in a nonforested environment. In the absence of forest cover, elk seemed to rely on a combination of shrubs, topography, and low human disturbance to meet their thermal and hiding cover requirements.     

Elk winter foraging at fine scale in Yellowstone National Park

The link between landscape properties and foraging decisions by herbivores remains unclear, but such knowledge is central to the understanding of plant–herbivore dynamics. Our goal was to determine whether fine-scale foraging paths of free-ranging elk (Cervus canadensis) respond to spatial structure of habitats in Yellowstone National Park. During winter 2002 we gathered elk-foraging information by following snow tracks in open habitats located on hillsides and flat terrain. The 21 snow paths surveyed were comprised on average of 15 discrete snow craters connected to each other by relatively straight-line movements. Our analyses revealed two levels of selection: elk chose where to dig, and how much search effort to allocate at digging sites based on habitat characteristics. On hillsides, elk preferentially dug in areas of greater biomass of grasses and forbs, and simply walked through poorer sites without digging. Individuals also searched more intensively, creating larger craters, where food biomass was higher. On flat terrain, crater size decreased with snow depth and increased with snow density. Correlated random walk models usually were adequate to characterize elk movement on flat terrain, but not on hillsides. First, as the number of movements between local foraging areas increased, elk displacements on hillsides became shorter than expected from random patterns. This trend on hillsides was strongly influenced by interindividual variation in movement behavior. Second, elk tended to forage perpendicularly to aspect, resulting in horizontal displacements. Our study demonstrates that free-ranging elk adjust their foraging to fine-scale habitat structure.     

Spatial and temporal factors influencing sightability of elk

Few tracking studies consider seasonal changes in ability to re-sight wildlife, despite potential for biases in sightability to mislead our interpretation of models of movement and abundance. We developed seasonal sightability models based on visual observations of radio-collared elk (Cervus elaphus) in Manitoba, Canada, through 6 seasons. We located 377 elk 8,862 times using aerial telemetry from 2002 to 2009. We tested the hypothesis that sites where we were able to visually observe radio-collared elk during aerial telemetry differed from sites where collared elk were known to be present but could not be sighted. Relationships varied with season and elk sightability was influenced by forest type, habitat openness, distance to edge, and time of day. Our results confirm that observers have the highest probability of detecting elk in early and late winter. However, factors such as day length, which increases by 64% during this period, suggest that fewer impediments to detection exist in late winter. Our findings reinforce the need to account for seasonal as well as spatial changes in habitat-specific sightability models. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Grizzly bear predation links the loss of native trout to the demography of migratory elk in Yellowstone

The loss of aquatic subsidies such as spawning salmonids is known to threaten a number of terrestrial predators, but the effects on alternative prey species are poorly understood. At the heart of the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem, an invasion of lake trout has driven a dramatic decline of native cutthroat trout that migrate up the shallow tributaries of Yellowstone Lake to spawn each spring. We explore whether this decline has amplified the effect of a generalist consumer, the grizzly bear, on populations of migratory elk that summer inside Yellowstone National Park (YNP). Recent studies of bear diets and elk populations indicate that the decline in cutthroat trout has contributed to increased predation by grizzly bears on the calves of migratory elk. Additionally, a demographic model that incorporates the increase in predation suggests that the magnitude of this diet shift has been sufficient to reduce elk calf recruitment (4–16%) and population growth (2–11%). The disruption of this aquatic–terrestrial linkage could permanently alter native species interactions in YNP. Although many recent ecological changes in YNP have been attributed to the recovery of large carnivores—particularly wolves—our work highlights a growing role of human impacts on the foraging behaviour of grizzly bears.     

Socially informed random walks: incorporating group dynamics into models of population spread and growth

Simple correlated random walk (CRW) models are rarely sufficient to describe movement of animals over more than the shortest time scales. However, CRW approaches can be used to model more complex animal movement trajectories by assuming individuals move in one of several different behavioural or movement states, each characterized by a different CRW. The spatial and social context an individual experiences may influence the proportion of time spent in different movement states, with subsequent effects on its spatial distribution, survival and fecundity. While methods to study habitat influences on animal movement have been previously developed, social influences have been largely neglected. Here, we fit a 'socially informed' movement model to data from a population of over 100 elk (Cervus canadensis) reintroduced into a new environment, radio-collared and subsequently tracked over a 4-year period. The analysis shows how elk move further when they are solitary than when they are grouped and incur a higher rate of mortality the further they move away from the release area. We use the model to show how the spatial distribution and growth rate of the population depend on the balance of fission and fusion processes governing the group structure of the population. The results are briefly discussed with respect to the design of species reintroduction programmes.     

Contrasting Effects of Wolves and Human Hunters on Elk Behavioral Responses to Predation Risk

ABSTRACT Prey behavioral responses to predation risk in wolf-ungulate-plant systems are of interest to wildlife managers. Using Global Positioning System data collected from telemetry-collared elk (Cervus elaphus) and wolves (Canis lupus), we evaluated elk behavioral responses to spatial and temporal variation in wolf- and human-predation risk on a winter range in the Greater Yellowstone Area, USA. We found elk changed grouping patterns and increased movement rates as predation risk increased and that these behavioral changes were habitat dependent. Elk behavioral responses to wolf- and human-predation risk were similar; however, responses to human-predation risk were stronger than responses to wolf-predation risk. These results suggest that predation risk from wolves or human hunters may result in elk spending more time on private rangelands away from public-land winter ranges, which may exacerbate problems of landowner tolerance of elk on livestock pastures. However, increased movement and changing grouping patterns on winter ranges may also disperse elk grazing impacts and lessen elk impacts on any one area.     

Variation in elk response to roads by season,sex, and road type

Despite the near universal recognition that roads negatively affect wildlife, the mechanisms that elicit animal responses to roads are often ambiguous or poorly understood. We conducted a multi-year, multi-season study to assess the relative influence of roads on elk (Cervus elaphus) in a human-dominated landscape in South Dakota. We evaluated the effects of habitat covariates including security cover, forage quality, distance to roads (primary, secondary, and tertiary), and visibility from roads at the home range scale. We radio-collared 28 elk (21 adult females and 7 adult males) and calculated seasonal (winter, spring, summer, and autumn) utilization distributions (UDs). We assigned habitat covariates to use percentiles within the UDs (1% increments; from 1 to 98 percentiles) and used spatially explicit mixed linear regression to model the relationship between use percentile and habitat covariates. For each season and sex, we evaluated 15 candidate models and used Akaike's Information Criterion weights (ω_i) to identify top-ranking models. We plotted influential coefficients from these models with 95% confidence intervals to examine the magnitude of effects. Our analysis revealed fundamental differences in response to roads, by road type, between sexes, and across seasons. Male elk established home ranges near roads devoid of vehicle traffic in winter, spring, and autumn. In summer, coinciding with peak vehicle traffic levels, male elk reduced their use of habitat that was both visible from and close to primary roads. Female elk subherds similarly responded to primary roads in spring and autumn, during times of year when they were calving and mating, respectively. In spring and summer, female elk subherds selected habitat near roads that were closed to vehicle traffic. Forage quality and security cover were influential in the periphery (>50th use percentile) of elk home ranges, whereas road covariates were more influential towards the core of elk home ranges. This analysis further demonstrates the utility of visibility from road metrics and suggests that the retention of vegetation structures that screen visibility potential from roads could be important components of elk management strategies. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Identifying Movement States From Location Data Using Cluster Analysis

ABSTRACT Animal movement studies regularly use movement states (e.g., slow and fast) derived from remotely sensed locations to make inferences about strategies of resource use. However, the number of movement state categories used is often arbitrary and rarely inferred from the data. Identifying groups with similar movement characteristics is a statistical problem. We present a framework based on k-means clustering and gap statistic for evaluating the number of movement states without making a priori assumptions about the number of clusters. This allowed us to distinguish 4 movement states using turning angle and step length derived from Global Positioning System locations and head movements derived from tip switches in a neck collar of free-ranging elk (Cervus elaphus) in west central Alberta, Canada. Based on movement characteristics and on the linkage between each state and landscape features, we were able to identify inter-patch movements, intra-patch foraging, rest, and inter-patch foraging movements. Linking behavior to environment (e.g., state-dependent habitat use) can inform decisions on landscape management for wildlife.     

Bark Beetle-Affected Forests Provide Elk Only a Marginal Refuge from Hunters

For nearly 2 decades, the forests of the Rocky Mountains in the United States experienced a bark-beetle (Dendoctronus ponderosae) epidemic. The number of dead and falling trees from this epidemic likely will affect how elk (Cervus canadensis) and hunters use the forest and their interactions. Downed trees potentially create a component of refuge habitat that could affect the effectiveness of hunting to regulate abundance of growing elk populations. We evaluated how forests affected by bark beetles in south-central Wyoming, USA, influenced resource selection of 50 female elk and 374 hunters in 2012–2016, and interactions between elk and hunters. We employed global positioning system (GPS) technology on elk and hunters, and developed a satellite-derived land classification specifically depicting beetle-affected forests. We tested the predictions that elk would increase use of beetle-killed areas from summer to the hunting season, and that hunters would avoid beetle-killed areas regardless of elk use. Elk increased use of beetle-killed areas during hunting seasons as did hunters during the archery season; however, during the rifle season, hunters avoided beetle-killed areas. Nevertheless, during the rifle season, areas of beetle-kill with a high probability of elk occurrence dampened the aversion hunters had towards beetle-killed areas. Therefore, in contrast to our expectations, forests that have been altered by the bark-beetle epidemic may only function marginally as a refuge for elk. Our study area was at the beginning of the tree-fall phase (i.e., ~3–7 yr after peak infestation) of the bark-beetle epidemic; thus, future research efforts should focus on how a continued increase in downed trees will influence interactions between elk and hunters. At current levels of tree fall, however, beetle-kill should not limit the ability of managers to regulate elk herds through harvest. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Prioritizing conservation of ungulate calving resources in multiple-use landscapes

Background

Conserving animal populations in places where human activity is increasing is an ongoing challenge in many parts of the world. We investigated how human activity interacted with maternal status and individual variation in behavior to affect reliability of spatially-explicit models intended to guide conservation of critical ungulate calving resources. We studied Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus) that occupy a region where 2900 natural gas wells have been drilled.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We present novel applications of generalized additive modeling to predict maternal status based on movement, and of random-effects resource selection models to provide population and individual-based inference on the effects of maternal status and human activity. We used a 2×2 factorial design (treatment vs. control) that included elk that were either parturient or non-parturient and in areas either with or without industrial development. Generalized additive models predicted maternal status (parturiency) correctly 93% of the time based on movement. Human activity played a larger role than maternal status in shaping resource use; elk showed strong spatiotemporal patterns of selection or avoidance and marked individual variation in developed areas, but no such pattern in undeveloped areas. This difference had direct consequences for landscape-level conservation planning. When relative probability of use was calculated across the study area, there was disparity throughout 72–88% of the landscape in terms of where conservation intervention should be prioritized depending on whether models were based on behavior in developed areas or undeveloped areas. Model validation showed that models based on behavior in developed areas had poor predictive accuracy, whereas the model based on behavior in undeveloped areas had high predictive accuracy.

Conclusions/Significance

By directly testing for differences between developed and undeveloped areas, and by modeling resource selection in a random-effects framework that provided individual-based inference, we conclude that: 1) amplified selection or avoidance behavior and individual variation, as responses to increasing human activity, complicate conservation planning in multiple-use landscapes, and 2) resource selection behavior in places where human activity is predictable or less dynamic may provide a more reliable basis from which to prioritize conservation action.     

A Review of Environmental Factors Affecting Elk Winter Diets

Abstract: Decades of research have produced substantial data on elk (Cervus elaphus) diets in winter, when foraging conditions are most likely to affect population dynamics. Using data from 72 studies conducted in western North America between 1938 and 2002, we collated data on elk diets and environmental variables. We used these data to quantify diet selection by elk and to test whether variation in elk diets is associated with habitat type, winter severity, period of winter, human hunting, and study method. Graminoids (grasses and grass-like plants such as sedges) dominated elk diets and consistently occurred at a higher proportion in the diet than in elk foraging habitats, indicating preference. Forbs commonly made up ≤5% of the diet, with no evidence for preference; we conclude that forb use is largely incidental to grazing for graminoids. Browse was consumed in proportion to its availability, implying that the amount of browse in the diet was primarily determined by habitat use rather than selection. Comparing the diets of elk and sympatric ruminants, elk consistently selected graminoids more strongly than sympatric ruminants with the exception of bison (Bison bison), suggesting that elk are not environmentally forced to adopt the graminoid-biased diet that they normally select. The proportion of open meadows and grasslands on winter ranges was strongly and positively associated with graminoid consumption by elk. The proportion of graminoids in the diet was significantly lower in elk experiencing severe winter conditions or predation risk from human hunting. The period of winter (early, middle, and late) had only small effects on elk diets, as did the method by which the diet was determined. Overall, variation in elk diets is well-explained by a consistent tendency to select graminoids if available, modified by winter habitat type, predation risk, and winter severity, which can constrain habitat selection and access to grazing opportunities. To fully understand variation in foraging behavior, biologists should recognize these broad patterns when interpreting resource selection data. Managers should recognize that inconspicuous behavioral responses to environmental stimuli can alter the diet in ways that probably carry nutritional consequences.     

Effects of grass and browse consumption on the winter mass dynamics of elk

Much of the research into herbivore ecology and evolution has focused on patterns and mechanisms of niche partitioning in the diets of specialized grazers and browsers, but the significance of the balance of grazing and browsing within intermediate feeders present unique questions that have received less attention. We explored the nutritional effects of varying the balance of grass and browse in the winter diets of elk (Cervus elaphus). We compiled published data from three similar studies that monitored the mass dynamics of captive elk fed diets of pure grass, pure browse or 1 of 14 mixed diets in winter feeding trials. Elk lost mass (up to 22% of initial body weight) in 29 of 33 feeding trials, similar to wild elk in winter. We used regression models of mass dynamics, considering the linear, quadratic or logarithmic effects of the proportion of the diet that was grass (≈1 − proportion of the diet that was browse) and the additive and interactive effects of nitrogen intake. Diet composition had strong effects on mass dynamics, and all models explained ≥73% of the variation (adjusted r ²) in mass dynamics. Nitrogen intake had uniformly positive effects on mass balance, and increasing grass intake caused improved maintenance of body mass up to a point, but further increases in the proportion of grass in the diet had neutral or negative effects on body mass. Overall, the data suggest that elk are adapted to consuming mixed diets. Nonetheless, data on the foraging behavior and diet selection of wild elk in many populations show that elk often consume grass-dominated diets and sometimes consume browse-dominated diets, but rarely consume mixed diets. Physiological adaptations to mixed diets may place unique spatio-temporal constraints on diet selection in intermediate feeders and impose large penalties for a sub-optimal balance of grazing and browsing.     

Effects of supplemental feeding and aggregation on fecal glucocorticoid metabolite concentrations in elk

Habitat modifications and supplemental feeding artificially aggregate some wildlife populations, with potential impacts upon contact and parasite transmission rates. Less well recognized, however, is how increased aggregation may affect wildlife physiology. Crowding has been shown to induce stress responses, and increased glucocorticoid (GC) concentrations can reduce immune function and increase disease susceptibility. We investigated the effects of supplemental feeding and the aggregation that it induces on behavior and fecal glucocorticoid metabolite concentrations (fGCM) in elk (Cervus elaphus) using observational and experimental approaches. We first compared fGCM levels of elk on supplemental feedgrounds to neighboring elk populations wintering in native habitats using data from 2003 to 2008. We then experimentally manipulated the distribution of supplemental food on feedgrounds to investigate whether more widely distributed food would result in lower rates of aggression and stress hormone levels. Contrary to some expectations that fed elk may be less stressed than unfed elk during the winter, we found that elk on feedgrounds had fecal GC levels at least 31% higher than non-feedground populations. Within feedgrounds, fGCM levels were strongly correlated with local measures of elk density (r² = 0.81). Dispersing feed more broadly, however, did not have a detectable effect on fGCM levels or aggression rates. Our results suggest that increases in aggregation associated with winter feedgrounds affects elk physiology, and the resulting increases in fGCM levels are not likely to be mitigated by management efforts that distribute the feed more widely. Additional research is needed to assess whether these increases in fGCMs directly alter parasite transmission and disease dynamics. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Beyond the encounter: Predicting multi‐predator risk to elk (Cervus canadensis) in summer using predator scats

1. There is growing evidence that prey perceive the risk of predation and alter their behavior in response, resulting in changes in spatial distribution and potential fitness consequences. Previous approaches to mapping predation risk across a landscape quantify predator space use to estimate potential predator‐prey encounters, yet this approach does not account for successful predator attack resulting in prey mortality. An exception is a prey kill site that reflects an encounter resulting in mortality, but obtaining information on kill sites is expensive and requires time to accumulate adequate sample sizes.
2. We illustrate an alternative approach using predator scat locations and their contents to quantify spatial predation risk for elk (Cervus canadensis) from multiple predators in the Rocky Mountains of Alberta, Canada. We surveyed over 1300 km to detect scats of bears (Ursus arctos/U. americanus), cougars (Puma concolor), coyotes (Canis latrans), and wolves (C. lupus). To derive spatial predation risk, we combined predictions of scat‐based resource selection functions (RSFs) weighted by predator abundance with predictions that a predator‐specific scat in a location contained elk. We evaluated the scat‐based predictions of predation risk by correlating them to predictions based on elk kill sites. We also compared scat‐based predation risk on summer ranges of elk following three migratory tactics for consistency with telemetry‐based metrics of predation risk and cause‐specific mortality of elk.
3. We found a strong correlation between the scat‐based approach presented here and predation risk predicted by kill sites and (r = .98, p < .001). Elk migrating east of the Ya Ha Tinda winter range were exposed to the highest predation risk from cougars, resident elk summering on the Ya Ha Tinda winter range were exposed to the highest predation risk from wolves and coyotes, and elk migrating west to summer in Banff National Park were exposed to highest risk of encountering bears, but it was less likely to find elk in bear scats than in other areas. These patterns were consistent with previous estimates of spatial risk based on telemetry of collared predators and recent cause‐specific mortality patterns in elk.
4. A scat‐based approach can provide a cost‐efficient alternative to kill sites of quantifying broad‐scale, spatial patterns in risk of predation for prey particularly in multiple predator species systems.

     

Justice blocks and predictability of U.S. Supreme Court votes

Successful attempts to predict judges' votes shed light into how legal decisions are made and, ultimately, into the behavior and evolution of the judiciary. Here, we investigate to what extent it is possible to make predictions of a justice's vote based on the other justices' votes in the same case. For our predictions, we use models and methods that have been developed to uncover hidden associations between actors in complex social networks. We show that these methods are more accurate at predicting justice's votes than forecasts made by legal experts and by algorithms that take into consideration the content of the cases. We argue that, within our framework, high predictability is a quantitative proxy for stable justice (and case) blocks, which probably reflect stable a priori attitudes toward the law. We find that U.S. Supreme Court justice votes are more predictable than one would expect from an ideal court composed of perfectly independent justices. Deviations from ideal behavior are most apparent in divided 5-4 decisions, where justice blocks seem to be most stable. Moreover, we find evidence that justice predictability decreased during the 50-year period spanning from the Warren Court to the Rehnquist Court, and that aggregate court predictability has been significantly lower during Democratic presidencies. More broadly, our results show that it is possible to use methods developed for the analysis of complex social networks to quantitatively investigate historical questions related to political decision-making.     

Validation of elk resource selection models with spatially independent data

Knowledge of how landscape features affect wildlife resource use is essential for informed management. Resource selection functions often are used to make and validate predictions about landscape use; however, resource selection functions are rarely validated with data from landscapes independent of those from which the models were built. This problem has severely limited the application of resource selection functions over larger geographic areas for widely distributed species. North American elk (Cervus elaphus) is an example of a widely-distributed species of keen interest to managers and for which validation of resource selection functions over large geographic areas is important. We evaluated the performance of resource selection functions developed for elk on one landscape in northeast Oregon with independent data from a different landscape in the same region. We compared predicted versus observed elk resource use for 9 monthly or seasonal periods across 3 yr. Results showed strong, positive agreement between predicted and observed use for 2 spring and 3 late summer-early fall models (3-yr r = 0.81–0.95). Predicted versus observed use was negatively or weakly positively correlated for 3 summer models and 1 mid-fall model (3-yr r = −0.57–0.14). Predicted and observed use correlated well when forage was limited (spring and late summer or early fall), corresponding to important biological stages for elk (parturition and breeding seasons). For these seasonal periods, model covariates such as rate of motorized traffic and canopy closure often were effective predictors of elk resource selection. The models we validated for spring and late summer-early fall may be used to evaluate management activities in areas with similar landscape characteristics. © 2010 The Wildlife Society.     

Human selection of elk behavioural traits in a landscape of fear

Among agents of selection that shape phenotypic traits in animals, humans can cause more rapid changes than many natural factors. Studies have focused on human selection of morphological traits, but little is known about human selection of behavioural traits. By monitoring elk (Cervus elaphus) with satellite telemetry, we tested whether individuals harvested by hunters adopted less favourable behaviours than elk that survived the hunting season. Among 45 2-year-old males, harvested elk showed bolder behaviour, including higher movement rate and increased use of open areas, compared with surviving elk that showed less conspicuous behaviour. Personality clearly drove this pattern, given that inter-individual differences in movement rate were present before the onset of the hunting season. Elk that were harvested further increased their movement rate when the probability of encountering hunters was high (close to roads, flatter terrain, during the weekend), while elk that survived decreased movements and showed avoidance of open areas. Among 77 females (2–19 y.o.), personality traits were less evident and likely confounded by learning because females decreased their movement rate with increasing age. As with males, hunters typically harvested females with bold behavioural traits. Among less-experienced elk (2–9 y.o.), females that moved faster were harvested, while elk that moved slower and avoided open areas survived. Interestingly, movement rate decreased as age increased in those females that survived, but not in those that were eventually harvested. The latter clearly showed lower plasticity and adaptability to the local environment. All females older than 9 y.o. moved more slowly, avoided open areas and survived. Selection on behavioural traits is an important but often-ignored consequence of human exploitation of wild animals. Human hunting could evoke exploitation-induced evolutionary change, which, in turn, might oppose adaptive responses to natural and sexual selection.     

Considerations of varied thermoregulatory expressions in migration theory

Optimal migration theory has been used for three decades to generate predictions of stopover behavior and understand migration ecology. Yet, to date, there have been no attempts to understand the impacts of thermoregulation on migration theory predictions of stopover behavior. Though most migrants are homeothermic, a diverse group of migrants from bats to hummingbirds and warblers make use of some degree of heterothermy. We consider how thermoregulation influences stopover fuel deposition rates, and thus alters optimal migration theory predictions of stopover behavior using a hypothetical migratory bat as a model organism. We update the analytical models of optimal migration theory by considering scenarios of fixed metabolic rate (the current assumption of optimal migration theory) and three different mass-specific metabolic rates including homeothermy, shallow torpor heterothermy and deep torpor heterothermy. Our results predict that heterotherms will make shorter stopovers, have a decreased departure fuel load, and reduce the overall time and energy costs associated with stopovers relative to homeotherms, highlighting that thermoregulation can drastically influence stopover behavior and ultimately play a critical role in population level patterns of migration.     

Demographic balancing of migrant and resident elk in a partially migratory population through forage–predation tradeoffs

Partial migration is widespread in ungulates, yet few studies have assessed demographic mechanisms for how these alternative strategies are maintained in populations. Over the past two decades the number of resident individuals of the Ya Ha Tinda elk herd near Banff National Park has been increasing proportionally despite an overall population decline. We compared demographic rates of migrant and resident elk to test for demographic mechanisms partial migration. We determined adult female survival for 132 elk, pregnancy rates for 150 female elk, and elk calf survival for 79 calves. Population vital rates were combined in Leslie‐matrix models to estimate demographic fitness, which we defined as the migration strategy‐specific population growth rate. We also tested for differences in factors influencing risk of mortality between migratory strategies for adult females using Cox‐proportional hazards regression and time‐varying covariates of exposure to forage biomass, wolf predation risk, and group size. Despite higher pregnancy rates and winter calf weights associated with higher forage quality, survival of migrant adult females and calves were lower than resident elk. Resident elk traded high quality food to reduce predation risk by selecting areas close to human activity, and by living in group sizes 20% larger than migrants. Thus, residents experienced higher adult female survival and calf survival, but lower pregnancy and calf weights. Cause‐specific mortality of migrants was dominated by wolf and grizzly bear mortality, whereas resident mortality was dominated by human hunting. Demographic differences translated into slightly higher (2–3%), but non‐significant, resident population growth rate compared to migrant elk, suggesting demographic balancing between resident strategies during our study. Despite statistical equivalence, our results are also consistent with slow long‐term declines in migrants because of high predation because of higher wolf‐caused mortality in migrants. These results emphasize that migrants and residents will make different tradeoffs between forage and risk may affect the demographic balance of partially migratory populations, which may explain recent declines in migratory behavior in many ungulate populations around the world.