Effect of removing a dominant competitor,Akodon azarae (Rodentia,Sigmodontinae) on community and population parameters of small rodent species in Central Argentina

Abstract We studied the effect of removing Akodon azarae (Muridae, Sigmodontinae) on community and demographic parameters of rodent species in crop field borders of Central Argentina. We applied three replicated treatments: enclosure and removal of A. azarae, enclosure without removal, and a control without removal or enclosure. We conducted 14 monthly capture–mark–recapture samplings between October 1988 and March 1990. During the study period we observed an increase in Mus domesticus (Muridae, Murinae) abundance in removal areas. Other species did not respond to A. azarae removal. When A. azarae was removed, M. domesticus appeared to be competitively dominant over the remaining species of the community, increasing its relative abundance. Reproductive parameters of M. domesticus were more sensitive to treatments than survival parameters.     

Density-dependent habitat selection between maize cropfields and their borders in two rodent species (Akodon azarae and Calomys laucha) of Pampean agroecosystems

We studied habitat preferences and intra and interspecific density-dependent effects on habitat selection by Akodon azarae and Calomys laucha between maize fields and their adjacent borders, during different developmental stages of the crop. Akodon azarae detected quantitative differences between habitats, using preferentially borders throughout the year, while C. laucha perceived borders and cropfields as quantitatively similar during spring and summer and it detected borders as quantitatively better at the high density period (autumn and winter). These results support the prediction of differential habitat preferences as a model of community organisation at the low density period, while they are consistent with shared habitat preferences during autumn and winter when both species apparently coexist in the better habitat (border). Akodon azarae showed intraspecific density-dependent habitat selection throughout the year, except in spring, while habitat selection by C. laucha was density-dependent in spring, autumn and winter. The effect of interspecific density on habitat selection was detected in both habitats and changed seasonally. The effect of A. azarae over C. laucha by resources exploitation was detected in borders, while competitive effects of C. laucha over A. azarae was observed within cropfields. Both species were more affected by exploitation competition than interference, which was more common in borders than in maize fields. We conclude that seasonally have a profound effect in habitat selection of these species because it changes the intensity of intra and interspecific competition and affects different habitat preferences and basic suitability of habitats. This revised version was published online in November 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Connecting fruit production to seedling establishment in two co-occurring <Emphasis Type="Italic">Miconia</Emphasis> species: consequences of seed dispersal by birds in upper Amazonia

This study investigated links between seed production by two species of Miconia (Melastomataceae), whose seeds are dispersed by birds, and later stages of recruitment in lowland forests of eastern Ecuador. Seed dispersal and survival in later stages are crucial for understanding and predicting patterns of plant population dynamics as well as for understanding patterns of diversity in tropical forests. A major goal was to determine if the spatial template of seed deposition established by birds predicted probability of recruitment. We used observational and experimental approaches to compare patterns of recruitment in Miconia fosteri and M. serrulata. We calculated probabilities of transition between successive stages of recruitment for each species in three habitats. The number of plants with fruit, number of fruits removed, and, to a lesser extent, patterns of seed deposition varied between species and among habitats, whereas seed survival, germination, and establishment showed little variation among habitats. The location of seed deposition directly influenced the cumulative probabilities of survival. Among-habitat differences in the probabilities of recruitment set by seed deposition were not modified by later stages, although probability of recruitment was 2.5 times higher for M. serrulata than for M. fosteri after 1 year. The more critical stages for recruitment were seed removal and deposition. Our results from multiple life-cycle stages suggest that habitat associations among plants that reach reproductive maturity become established at early life stages and were mostly a consequence of seed dispersal by birds. These results differ from those obtained in temperate zones and suggest fundamental differences in the importance of recruitment processes. Dispersers, such as manakins, play significant roles in recruitment and population dynamics of M. fosteri, M. serrulata and numerous other understory plants of Neotropical forests. Their role in plant recruitment could be much greater than previously considered in megadiverse tropical forests. Thus, loss of dispersers could have long-term and far-reaching implications for maintenance of diversity.     

Climatic drivers of pinyon mouse Peromyscus truei population dynamics in a resource-restricted environment

Highly variable patterns in temperature and rainfall events can have pronounced consequences for small mammals in resource-restricted environments. Climatic factors can therefore play a crucial role in determining the fates of small mammal populations. We applied Pradel's temporal symmetry model to a 21-year capture–recapture dataset to study population dynamics of the pinyon mouse (Peromyscus truei) in a semi-arid mixed oak woodland in California, USA. We examined time-, season- and sex-specific variation in realized population growth rate (λ) and its constituent vital rates, apparent survival and recruitment. We also tested the influence of climatic factors on these rates. Overall monthly apparent survival was 0.81 ± 0.004 (estimate ± SE). Survival was generally higher during wetter months (October–May) but varied over time. Monthly recruitment rate was 0.18 ± 0.01, ranging from 0.07 ± 0.01 to 0.63 ± 0.07. Although population growth rate (λ) was highly variable, overall monthly growth rate was close to 1.0, indicating a stable population during the study period (λ ± SE = 0.99 ± 0.01). Average temperature and its variability negatively affected survival, whereas rainfall positively influenced survival and recruitment rates, and thus the population growth rate. Our results suggest that seasonal rainfall and variation in temperature at the local scale, rather than regional climatic patterns, more strongly affected vital rates in this population. Discerning such linkages between species' population dynamics and environmental variability are critical for understanding local and regional impacts of global climate change, and for gauging viability and resilience of populations in resource-restricted environments.     

The founding of a southern elephant seal colony

The only large mainland colony of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) is on Península Valdés, at 42°S, in Argentine Patagonia. Censuses of pups have been carried out regularly there since 1970, and the population grew five‐fold by 2010. Here we use Bayesian modeling tools to make rigorous estimates of the rate of population growth, r, and to estimate survival and recruitment parameters that could account for the growth, incorporating observation error across different census methods. In the 1970s, r= 8%/yr, but has slowed to <1%/yr over the past decade. Using explicit demographic models, we established that the high growth of the 1970s was consistent with adult and juvenile survival at the upper end of published values (0.87/yr adult female survival; 0.40 juvenile survivorship to age four); the decline in the rate of population growth from 1970 to 2010 can be described by density‐dependent reductions in adult and juvenile survival that fall well within published variation. Extrapolating empirical models of population growth rate backwards illustrates that the population could have been an established colony, with 100 pups born per year, between 1915 and 1945, consistent with qualitative observations prior to 1950. We conclude that the Valdés colony was founded by a few immigrants early in the 20th century and has been growing mostly by internal recruitment, with unknown density‐dependent processes causing a reduction in growth and stabilization at 15,000–16,000 pups born.     

Importance of adult survival, local recruitment and immigration in a declining boreal forest passerine, the willow tit Parus montanus

Population growth rate (λ) and its components (adult survival, local recruitment, immigration and their relative contributions to λ) were studied in the declining willow tit Parus montanus in Northern Finland. Capture–recapture models for open populations were used to estimate the population parameters and their process variation. Adult survival was fairly high with low variation (0.593, CV=0.067). As expected, local recruitment was lower and more variable (0.063, CV=0.610). During the 12-year study, the population growth rate averaged to one (0.988, CV=0.197; calculated as However, if the present processes continue, population projections show that the population is likely to decline. There was considerable temporal variation in the relative contributions of demographic parameters to λ. In all years, adult survival had the highest relative contribution (mean 64%) to the population growth rate and it was the least variable trait. Immigration had a higher relative contribution (22%) to λ than local recruitment (14%). Based on the results for the contributions to λ, the main conservation concern for willow tits is adult survival. Due to low variation, adult survival may be difficult to enhance, but at least it should be prevented from declining. High stochasticity in local recruitment and immigration is probably an inherent characteristic of highly seasonal environments, making these traits difficult to address for conservation practices.     

Culling Versus Density Effects in Management of a Deer Population

Abstract: Wildlife managers often manipulate hunting regulations to control deer populations. However, few empirical studies have examined the level of hunting effort (hunter-days) required to limit population growth and demographic effects through harvesting of females. Moreover, the relative importance of density effects on population growth has not been quantified. We reconstructed a sika deer [Cervus nippon] population over a period of 12 years (1990–2001) using age- and sex-specific harvest data. Using cohort analysis, we analyzed population dynamics, focusing on 1) the relationship between hunting effort and hunting-induced mortality rate, 2) relative contributions of hunting mortality and recruitment of yearlings to annual changes in population growth rate, and 3) annual variation in recruitment rate. Population size increased until 1998 and declined thereafter. The population growth rate changed more in response to annual changes in recruitment rate than hunting mortality rate. Temporal variation in recruitment rate was not controlled by birth rate alone; direct density dependence, intensities of hunting mortality for fawns, and for females (≥2 yr of age), which accounted for the fawn survival rate, were required as factors to explain temporal variation. Density effects on the recruitment rate were not strong enough to regulate the population within the study period; high hunting mortality, with intensive female harvesting, was necessary to prevent population growth. Hunting effort was a good predictor of the hunting mortality rate, and female harvest had a negative effect on the recruitment rate through fawn survival. We suggest that >3,500 hunter-days and prioritization of female harvesting are required to prevent increases in this deer population.     

Estimates of annual survival,growth, and recruitment of a white-tailed ptarmigan population in Colorado over 43 years

Long-term datasets for high-elevation species are rare, and considerable uncertainty exists in understanding how high-elevation populations have responded to recent climate warming. We present estimates of demographic vital rates from a 43-year population study of white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura), a species endemic to alpine habitats in western North America. We used capture-recapture models to estimate annual rates of apparent survival, population growth, and recruitment for breeding-age ptarmigan, and we fit winter weather covariates to models in an attempt to explain annual variation. There were no trends in survival over the study period but there was strong support for age and sex effects. The average rate of annual growth suggests a relatively stable breeding-age population ( \( \bar{\lambda } \)  = 1.036), but there was considerable variation between years for both population growth and recruitment rates. Winter weather covariates only explained a small amount of variation in female survival and were not an important predictor of male survival. Cumulative winter precipitation was found to have a quadratic effect on female survival, with survival being highest during years of average precipitation. Cumulative winter precipitation was positively correlated with population growth and recruitment rates, although this covariate only explained a small amount of annual variation in these rates and there was considerable uncertainty among the models tested. Our results provide evidence for an alpine-endemic population that has not experienced extirpation or drastic declines. However, more information is needed to understand risks and vulnerabilities of warming effects on juveniles as our analysis was confined to determination of vital rates for breeding-age birds.     

Demography and dynamics of three wild horse populations in the Australian Alps

Wild horses (Equus caballus) are a non‐native species occupying over 2800 km² of the nationally significant Australian Alps National Parks. We estimated key demographic parameters (fecundity, adult and juvenile survival and annual finite population growth rate) over 3 years and related these to horse body condition and available food for three populations under natural conditions, and found a trend consistent with food limitation. The populations were independent, with different site characteristics and occupied areas, identified by land managers, as areas of concern about possible conservation impacts. Annual fecundity and juvenile survival varied across sites averaging between 0.21 and 0.31 female young per adult female, and 0.83 and 0.90 per annum, respectively, and annual adult survival was consistent across sites averaging 0.91 per annum. One population was increasing (λ = 1.09 year^?1; 95% CI 1.04–1.14) and two populations were stable (λ ～ 1.0 year^?1). Mean body condition of horses was positively correlated with mean pasture biomass rank. Across the three populations, fecundity, recruitment, body condition and annual finite population growth rate were lowest when mean pasture biomass rank was lowest and conversely highest when pasture rank was highest. We conclude that food limitation appears to be operating across these three sites. We used our results to assess the sensitivity of annual finite rate of increase (λ) to changes in key demographic parameters and found that λ was most sensitive to a change in adult survival, with the second most sensitive parameter being fecundity. Thus, if the aim of management is to reduce the size of the wild horse population then targeting adult survival is most important, followed by fecundity. Finally, we estimated the linear, negative, numerical response for wild horses between annual λ and horses per unit pasture biomass.     

Survival and population growth of a long-lived threatened snake species, Drymarchon couperi (Eastern Indigo Snake)

Demographic data provide a basis for understanding the life history and ecology of species, factors which are vital for informing conservation efforts; however, little is known regarding the population ecology of most snake species, including the threatened Eastern Indigo Snake (Drymarchon couperi). We used 11 years (1999–2009) of capture-mark-recapture (CMR) and 2.5 years (2003–2005) of radiotelemetry data from southeastern Georgia, USA, in a CMR modeling framework to estimate apparent survival, capture and transition probabilities, and evaluate factors influencing these parameters. The model-averaged estimate of overall apparent annual survival probability was 0.700 (±0.030 SE) and is comparable to that obtained from known fate analysis (radiotelemetry) at the same site. Body size positively influenced survival, regardless of sex. Capture probability differed seasonally by sex, suggesting lower capture probability for females in fall and males in winter. There was no evidence for effect of precipitation or site-specific differences in survival. Model averaged estimate of annual adult survival estimated using multistate CMR models was 0.738 ± 0.030 and 0.515 ± 0.189 for subadults. We estimated population growth rate (λ) and elasticity (proportional sensitivity) of λ to vital rates using a stage-structured matrix population model. Population growth rate ranged from 0.96 to 1.03 depending on the value of the probability of transitioning from subadult to adult stage. The λ was proportionally most sensitive to changes in adult survival rate, followed by subadult survival. Our results suggest that protecting adult snakes and their habitats would result in the highest likelihood of long-term population stability and growth.     

Demographics of an Experimentally Released Population of Elk in Great Smoky Mountains National Park

ABSTRACT We assessed the potential for reestablishing elk (Cervus elaphus) in Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP), USA, by estimating vital rates of experimentally released animals from 2001 to 2006. Annual survival rates for calves ranged from 0.333 to 1.0 and averaged 0.592. Annual survival for subadult and adult elk (i.e., ≥ 1 yr of age) ranged from 0.690 to 0.933, depending on age and sex. We used those and other vital rates to model projected population growth and viability using a stochastic individual-based model. The annual growth rate (λ) of the modeled population over a 25-year period averaged 0.996 and declined from 1.059 the first year to 0.990 at year 25. The modeled population failed to attain a positive 25-year mean growth rate in 46.0% of the projections. Poor calf recruitment was an important determinant of low population growth. Predation by black bears (Ursus americanus) was the dominant calf mortality factor. Most of the variance of growth projections was due to demographic variation resulting from the small population size (n = 61). Management actions such as predator control may help increase calf recruitment, but our projections suggest that the GSMNP elk population may be at risk for some time because of high demographic variation.     

Population dynamics of Echinops gmelinii Turcz. at different successional stages of biological soil crusts in a temperate desert in China

• The effects of biological soil crusts (BSC) on vascular plant growth can be positive, neutral or negative, and little information is available on the impacts of different BSC successional stages on vascular plant population dynamics.
• We analysed seedling emergence, survival, plant growth and reproduction in response to different BSC successional stages (i.e. habitats: bare soil, cyanobacteria, lichen and moss crusts) in natural populations of Echinops gmelinii Turcz. in the Tengger Desert of northwest China. The winter annual E. gmelinii is a dominant pioneer herb after sand stabilisation.
• During the early stages of BSC succession, the studied populations of E. gmelinii were characterised by high density, plant growth and fecundity. As the BSC succession proceeded beyond moss crusts, the fecundity decreased sharply, which limited seedling recruitment. Differences in seedling survival among the successional stages were not evident, indicating that BSC have little effect on survival in arid desert regions. Moreover, E. gmelinii biomass allocation exhibited low plasticity, and only reproductive allocation was sensitive to the various habitats. Our results further suggest that the negative effects of BSC succession on population dynamics are primarily driven by increasing topsoil water‐holding capacity and decreasing rain water infiltration into deeper soil.
• We conclude that BSC succession drives population dynamics of E. gmelinii, primarily via its effect on soil moisture. The primary cause for E. gmelinii population decline during the moss‐dominated stage of BSC succession is decreased fecundity of individual plants, with declining seed mass possibly reducing the success of seedling establishment.

     

Return to preferred habitats (edges) as a function of distance in Akodon azarae (Rodentia, Muridae) in cropfield-edge systems of central Argentina

We studied the ability of Akodon azarae (Rodentia, Muridae) to return to their preferred habitat, when released at a perpendicular distance (25, 50 or 75 m) from the edge towards the cropfield, and a parallel distance (100 m) away from the site of first capture within the edge habitat. Return success was estimated as the proportion of animals recovered in edges. The recapture rate between the field and the border was significantly higher than the recapture rate estimated according to successive captures in the border. Successful returns did not decrease significantly with increasing release distance, but animals released at 50 m from edges were less successful in returning to borders than the other release-distance groups. Although the median time taken to the first recapture in edges did not differ among the release-distance groups, rodents released at 25 m and 50 m returned to edges faster than those released at 75 m. A. azarae showed both a successful return to the edge and a trend to return to the home range area. We conclude that A. azarae can return to edges from cropfields at distances that are larger than those they usually travel, allowing the use of fields when they present good conditions for reproduction and survival. Successful return is probably the result of direct movements rather than random wandering.     

Regeneration of a marginal Quercus suber forest in the eastern Iberian Peninsula

Question: Small and marginal forest populations are a focus of attention because of their high biodiversity value as well as the risk of population decline and loss. In this context, we ask to what extent a small, marginal Quercus suber (Cork oak) population located in the eastern Iberian Peninsula (Valencia, Spain) has the capacity for self‐regeneration and what are the factors that determine its recruitment variability. Location: Quercus suber forest in Pinet (Valencia, Spain). Methods: We performed a spatially explicit sampling both of the recruitment and of the potential parameters that could account for the recruitment variability. Using regression techniques we model the recruitment occurrence and abundance, and then we test to what extent the model obtained is still constrained by the spatial dependence. Results: Quercus suber recruitment density ranges from 0 to 18.66 individuals/25m² (mean = 1.46, SD = 2.8), with a very skewed distribution. Recruitment is similar under Q. suber forests and under Pinus forests, but it is almost absent under shrublands. Thus the parameters that explain most of the recruitment variability in local vegetation types are: the presence and cover of shrubs (negative relationship with recruitment), the basal area of Q. suber and Pinus and the amount of bare soil (all positively related to recruitment). These parameters are strongly related to the ecological processes driving recruitment (i.e. dispersal and predation) and they remove most of the spatial dependence of recruitment. Most recruiters, however, are small, forming a seedling bank rather than growing to successfully colonize new habitats. Conclusion: The results suggest that although recruitment densities are not very high, they do not limit potential regeneration in the Pinet Q. suber forest. However, successful regeneration is not observed. If we aim to increase the Pinet Q. suber population size, land management measures need to provide appropriate conditions for both seedling establishment in shrublands (e.g. shrub clearing) and seedling growth in woodlands (e.g. Pinus logging).     

Local habitat-induced variations in the population dynamics of Patella vulgata L.

The recruitment, growth and maximum size, life span, standing crop and biomass of Patella vulgata L. reveal considerable local differences in a range of habitats on the same shore. While some differences are related to physical conditions (e.g., standing water, tidal level), others arise from local biological interactions and may reverse expectations based on tidal level alone. Wet and bare surfaces apart, juvenile input is regularly highest among mid- and upper-shore mussels, while growth and maximum size are least among barnacles at any tidal level. The extreme permutations of population characteristics range from high-level, dry barnacle areas where limpet recruitment averages 15 % of standing crop, growth rate and maximum size are low and survival for 15–17 years is possible to low-level, bare rock where input averages 66 %, growth and maximum size are high and life span unlikely to exceed 4–5 years. Population densities vary annually but the relative densities of the different habitats have remained fairly steady as long as the biological conditions have remained similar; the latter largely control the recruitment and survival characteristics upon the balance of which the population density appears to depend. Although liable to distortions due to years of abnormal recruitment, the size-frequency structure of their populations is highly diagnostic of many habitats.     

Recruitment and year-to-year variability in a population of Macoma balthica (L.)

Because of methodological problems, macrobenthic studies usually neglect the juvenile stages of invertebrate communities, due to the fact that appearance of recruits in samples is only detected some weeks or even months after their true recruitment. During this period, the temporary meiobenthos undergoes high rates of mortality. From year to year, juvenile survival rate is thus responsible for temporal patterns observed in adult population densities.The results presented here relate to the population dynamics of the tellinid bivalve Macoma balthica (L.). A study of temporary meiobenthos was conducted over two consecutive years in an intertidal Macoma-community located at the mouth of the Gironde Estuary in southwest France. Sampling of juvenile stages required short intervals (2 weeks) between successive samplings and a fine sieving mesh size (63 µm). Other population parameters, such as temporal patterns in density, reproductive cycle, and individual growth, were recorded.Recruitment processes showed a year-to-year variability, with regard to settlement density, settlement period, and survival rate. In 1983, recruitment was moderate and protracted over several months. Only one main recruitment period was detected in 1984, resulting in a high juvenile density. In a previous study (1977), by contrast, recruitment was almost non-existent.This variability is discussed as a function of climatic and sedimentological conditions which prevailed in the estuary throughout the study period. However, none of these physical factors appeared to underlie the recruitment fluctuation in Macoma balthica. It is suggested that biological interactions are of prime importance in regulating population densities in this community.     

Dispersal and recruitment dynamics in the fleshy‐fruited Persoonia lanceolata (Proteaceae)

Question: What is the role of dispersal, persistent soil seed banks and seedling recruitment in population persistence of fleshy‐fruited obligate seeding plant species in fire‐prone habitats? Location: Southeastern Australia. Methods: We used a long‐term study of a shrubby, fleshy‐fruited Persoonia species (Proteaceae) to examine (1) seed removal from beneath the canopy of adult plants; (2) seedling recruitment after fire; (3) the magnitude and location of the residual soil seed bank; and (4) the implications for fire management of obligate seeding species. We used demographic sampling techniques combined with Generalised Linear Modelling and regression to quantify population changes over time. Results: Most of the mature fruits (90%) on the ground below the canopy of plants were removed by Wallabia bicolor (Swamp wallaby) with 88% of seeds extracted from W. bicolor scats viable and dormant. Wallabies play an important role in moving seeds away from parent plants. Their role in occasional long distance dispersal events remains unknown. We detected almost no seed predation in situ under canopies (< 1%). Seedling recruitment was cued to fire, with post‐fire seedling densities 6‐7 times pre‐fire adult densities. After fire, a residual soil seed bank was present, as many seeds (77‐100%) remained dormant and viable at a soil depth where successful future seedling emergence is possible (0‐5 cm). Seedling survival was high (> 80%) with most mortality within 2 years of emergence. Plant growth averaged 17 cm per year. The primary juvenile period of plants was 7–8 years, within the period of likely return fire intervals in the study area. We predicted that the study population increased some five‐fold after the wildfire at the site. Conclusions: Residual soil seed banks are important, especially in species with long primary juvenile periods, to buffer the populations against the impact of a second fire occurring before the seed bank is replenished.     

The putative niche requirements and landscape dynamics of Microstegium vimineum: an invasive Asian grass

The theoretical foundations of population and community ecology stress the importance of identifying crucial niche requirements and life history stages of invasive species and, in doing so, give insight into research and management. We focus on Microstegium vimineum, an invasive grass which is causing marked changes in the structure and function of US forests. We describe M. vimineum’s life history and habitat characteristics, infer its niche requirements and synthesize this information in the context of population dynamics and management. Based on the results synthesized here, M. vimineum’s crucial niche requirements appear to be light (reproductive output), soil moisture (reproductive output, seedling recruitment) and aboveground coverage by leaf-litter and competing species (seedling recruitment and survival). These data suggest a source-sink dynamic might allow M. vimineum to disperse and thrive along sunny, and sometimes wet, edge habitats and, in turn, these populations might act as source populations for adjacent shady forest habitats. By evaluating M. vimineum in the context of its stage-specific requirements, we highlight potential weaknesses in its life history that provide strategies for effective management.     

Ant-mediated expansion of an obligate seeder species during the first years after fire

Most obligate seeder species build up a soil seed bank that is associated with massive seed germination in the year immediately after a fire. These species are also shade‐intolerant and disappear when vegetation cover closes, creating unsuitable conditions for seedling recruitment. The only way for these plants to expand their populations is when habitats suitable for seedling recruitment arise (i.e. in years immediately after a fire). However, short primary seed dispersal of obligate seeders does not allow these plants to colonise the suitable habitats, and these habitats can only be colonised by secondary seed dispersion. We hypothesised that Fumana ericoides, an obligate‐seeding small shrub, not only establishes abundantly in the first year after fire, but also expands its local range in the following years due to secondary dispersal by ants while suitable habitats are still available. We tested this hypothesis using experimental studies and a simulation model of potential population expansion in a recently burned area. Results showed that F. ericoides not only established prolifically in the year immediately after fire, but was also able to recruit new individuals and expand its population in the years following the fire, despite a low germination rate and short primary seed dispersal. Ant‐mediated seed dispersal and availability of suitable habitats were key factors in this phenomenon: ants redistributed seeds in suitable habitats while they were available, which accelerated the expansion of F. ericoides because new plants established far away from the core population.     

Conservation prospects for threatened Vietnamese tree species: results from a demographic study

Given that changes in population size are slow, information on future prospects of long-lived tree species is necessarily obtained from demographic models. We studied six threatened tree species in four Vietnamese protected areas: the broad-leaved Annamocarya sinensis, Manglietia fordiana and Parashorea chinensis, and the coniferous Calocedrus macrolepis, Dacrydium elatum and Pinus kwangtungensis. With data from a 2-year field study on recruitment, growth and survival, we constructed matrix models for each species. All species showed continuous regeneration, as indicated by annual seedling recruitment and inverse J-shaped population structures. To evaluate the future prospects of our study species, we calculated three parameters: (1) asymptotic growth rates (λ) from matrix models indicated significant population declines of 2–3%/year for two species; (2) population trajectories for 50–100 years showed slight population declines (0–3%/year) for five species; and (3) the reproductive period required for an adult tree to replace itself was excessive for three of the six species, suggesting that these species presently have insufficient recruitment. Overall agreement of the three parameters was low, showing that reliance on just one parameter is risky. Combining the three parameters we concluded that prospects are good for Dacrydium and Parashorea, worrisome for Annamocarya, Manglietia and Pinus, and intermediate for Calocedrus. We argue that conservation should involve strict protection of (pre-)adult trees, as their survival is crucial for population maintenance in all species (high elasticity). For species with poor demographic prospects, active intervention is required to improve seedling and tree growth, enrich populations with seedlings from controlled germination, and restore habitat. Finally, our study suggests that these conservation measures apply to long-lived trees in general, given that their demography is highly similar. Such measures should be taken before populations decline below critical levels, as long-lived species will respond slowly to management. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.