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1.

Background

As highly effective hepatitis C virus (HCV) therapies emerge, data are needed to inform the development of interventions to improve HCV treatment rates. We used simulation modeling to estimate the impact of loss to follow-up on HCV treatment outcomes and to identify intervention strategies likely to provide good value for the resources invested in them.

Methods

We used a Monte Carlo state-transition model to simulate a hypothetical cohort of chronically HCV-infected individuals recently screened positive for serum HCV antibody. We simulated four hypothetical intervention strategies (linkage to care; treatment initiation; integrated case management; peer navigator) to improve HCV treatment rates, varying efficacies and costs, and identified strategies that would most likely result in the best value for the resources required for implementation.

Main measures

Sustained virologic responses (SVRs), life expectancy, quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE), costs from health system and program implementation perspectives, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs).

Results

We estimate that imperfect follow-up reduces the real-world effectiveness of HCV therapies by approximately 75%. In the base case, a modestly effective hypothetical peer navigator program maximized the number of SVRs and QALE, with an ICER compared to the next best intervention of $48,700/quality-adjusted life year. Hypothetical interventions that simultaneously addressed multiple points along the cascade provided better outcomes and more value for money than less costly interventions targeting single steps. The 5-year program cost of the hypothetical peer navigator intervention was $14.5 million per 10,000 newly diagnosed individuals.

Conclusions

We estimate that imperfect follow-up during the HCV cascade of care greatly reduces the real-world effectiveness of HCV therapy. Our mathematical model shows that modestly effective interventions to improve follow-up would likely be cost-effective. Priority should be given to developing and evaluating interventions addressing multiple points along the cascade rather than options focusing solely on single points.  相似文献   

2.

Background

The diagnosis of tumour progression or progressive disease (PD) is a key element for designing and interpreting contemporary phase II trials. In some cases, PD is stated by the physician and is not formally confirmed by imaging.

Purpose

In this study, we intend to analyze the value of the PD based on clinical judgment and the risk of overestimating the occurrence of PD by clinical judgment.

Methods

We have conducted a single-centre retrospective study to analyse the diagnostic accuracy of this clinical judgment compared to planned imaging including all patients enrolled in our institution in phase II trials investigating systemic treatments for advanced solid tumours between January 2008 and November 2010.

Results

The positive predictive value (PPV) and the specificity of clinical judgment of PD was very high (>90%).

Conclusions

According to this study, the clinical judgment of PD is highly predictive of radiological PD as assessed, for example, by RECIST. Physicians do not overestimate PD occurence. Clinical judgment of PD could be taken into account in the definition of PD.  相似文献   

3.

Background

Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening is growing in popularity in China, but its impact on biopsy characteristics and outcomes are poorly understood.

Objective

Our objective was to characterize prostate biopsy outcomes and trends in Chinese men over a 10-year period, since the increasing use of PSA tests.

Methods

All men (n = 1,650) who underwent prostate biopsy for PCa at Huashan Hospital, Shanghai, China from 2003–2011 were evaluated. Demographic and clinical information was collected for each patient, including age, digital rectal examination (DRE), transrectal ultrasound (prostate volume and nodule), total prostate-specific antigen (tPSA) levels and free PSA ratio (fPSA/tPSA) prior to biopsy. Prostate biopsy was performed using six cores before October 2007 or ten cores thereafter. Logistic regression and multivariate analysis were used to evaluate our data.

Results

The overall positive rate of prostate biopsy for PCa was 47% and the rate decreased significantly over the years from 74% in 2003 to 33% in 2011 (P-trend = 0.004) . Age at diagnosis was slightly increased (P-trend = 0.04) while fPSA/tPSA was significantly decreased (P-trend = 1.11×10-5). A statistically significant trend was not observed for tPSA levels, prostate volume, or proportion of positive nodule. The model including multiple demographic and clinical variables (i.e., age, DRE, tPSA, fPSA/tPSA and transrectal ultrasound results) (AUC = 0.93) statistically outperformed models that included only PSA (AUC = 0.85) or fPSA/tPSA (AUC = 0.66) to predict PCa risks (P<0.05). Similar results were observed in a subgroup of men whose tPSA levels were lower than 20 ng/mL (AUC = 0.87, vs. AUC of tPSA  = 0.62, P<0.05).

Conclusions

Detection rates of PCa and high-grade PCa among men that underwent prostate biopsy at the institution has decreased significantly in the past 10 years, likely due to increasing use of PSA tests. Predictive performance of demographic and clinical variables of PCa was excellent. These variables should be used in clinics to determine the need for prostate biopsy.  相似文献   

4.

Purpose

Prostate cancer (PCa) is characterized by deregulated expression of several tumor suppressor or oncogenic miRNAs. The objective of this study was the identification and characterization of miR-let-7c as a potential tumor suppressor in PCa.

Experimental Design

Levels of expression of miR-let-7c were examined in human PCa cell lines and tissues using qRT-PCR and in situ hybridization. Let-7c was overexpressed or suppressed to assess the effects on the growth of human PCa cell lines. Lentiviral-mediated re-expression of let-7c was utilized to assess the effects on human PCa xenografts.

Results

We identified miR-let-7c as a potential tumor suppressor in PCa. Expression of let-7c is downregulated in castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) cells. Overexpression of let-7c decreased while downregulation of let-7c increased cell proliferation, clonogenicity and anchorage-independent growth of PCa cells in vitro. Suppression of let-7c expression enhanced the ability of androgen-sensitive PCa cells to grow in androgen-deprived conditions in vitro. Reconstitution of Let-7c by lentiviral-mediated intratumoral delivery significantly reduced tumor burden in xenografts of human PCa cells. Furthermore, let-7c expression is downregulated in clinical PCa specimens compared to their matched benign tissues, while the expression of Lin28, a master regulator of let-7 miRNA processing, is upregulated in clinical PCa specimens.

Conclusions

These results demonstrate that microRNA let-7c is downregulated in PCa and functions as a tumor suppressor, and is a potential therapeutic target for PCa.  相似文献   

5.

Background

Current markers for prostate cancer, such as PSA lack specificity. Therefore, novel biomarkers are needed. Unfortunately, the complexity of body fluids often hampers biomarker discovery. An attractive alternative approach is the isolation of small vesicles, i.e. exosomes, ∼100 nm, which contain proteins that are specific to the tissue from which they are derived and therefore can be considered as treasure chests for disease-specific biomarker discovery.

Materials and Methods

Exosomes were isolated from 2 immortalized primary prostate epithelial cells (PNT2C2 and RWPE-1) and 2 PCa cell lines (PC346C and VCaP) by ultracentrifugation. After tryptic digestion, proteomic analyses utilized a nanoLC coupled with an LTQ-Orbitrap operated in tandem MS (MS/MS) mode. Accurate Mass and Time (AMT) tag approach was employed for peptide identification and quantitation. Candidate biomarkers were validated by Western blotting and Immunohistochemistry.

Results

Proteomic characterization resulted in the identification of 248, 233, 169, and 216 proteins by at least 2 peptides in exosomes from PNT2C2, RWPE-1, PC346C, and VCaP, respectively. Statistical analyses revealed 52 proteins differently abundant between PCa and control cells, 9 of which were more abundant in PCa. Validation by Western blotting confirmed a higher abundance of FASN, XPO1 and PDCD6IP (ALIX) in PCa exosomes.

Conclusions

Identification of exosomal proteins using high performance LC-FTMS resulted in the discovery of PDCD6IP, FASN, XPO1 and ENO1 as new candidate biomarkers for prostate cancer.  相似文献   

6.

Background

Little data exists addressing satisfaction with end-of-life care among hospitalized patients, as they and their family members are systematically excluded from routine satisfaction surveys. It is imperative that we closely examine patient and institution factors associated with quality end-of-life care and determine high-priority target areas for quality improvement.

Methods

Between September 1, 2010 and January 1, 2012 the Canadian Health care Evaluation Project (CANHELP) Bereavement Questionnaire was mailed to the next-of-kin of recently deceased inpatients to seek factors associated with satisfaction with end-of-life care. The primary outcome was the global rating of satisfaction. Secondary outcomes included rates of actual versus preferred location of death, associations between demographic factors and global satisfaction, and identification of targets for quality improvement.

Results

Response rate was 33% among 275 valid addresses. Overall, 67.4% of respondents were very or completely satisfied with the overall quality of care their relative received. However, 71.4% of respondents who thought their relative did not die in their preferred location favoured an out-of-hospital location of death. A common location of death was the intensive care unit (45.7%); however, this was not the preferred location of death for 47.6% of such patients. Multivariate Poisson regression analysis showed respondents who believed their relative died in their preferred location were 1.7 times more likely to be satisfied with the end-of-life care that was provided (p = 0.001). Items identified as high-priority targets for improvement included: relationships with, and characteristics of health care professionals; illness management; communication; and end-of-life decision-making.

Interpretation

Nearly three-quarters of recently deceased inpatients would have preferred an out-of-hospital death. Intensive care units were a common, but not preferred, location of in-hospital deaths. Family satisfaction with end-of-life care was strongly associated with their relative dying in their preferred location. Improved communication regarding end-of-life care preferences should be a high-priority quality improvement target.  相似文献   

7.

Background

An arteriovenous fistula (AVF) is considered the vascular access of choice, but uncertainty exists about the optimal time for its creation in pre-dialysis patients. The aim of this study was to determine the optimal vascular access referral strategy for stage 4 (glomerular filtration rate <30 ml/min/1.73 m2) chronic kidney disease patients using a decision analytic framework.

Methods

A Markov model was created to compare two strategies: refer all stage 4 chronic kidney disease patients for an AVF versus wait until the patient starts dialysis. Data from published observational studies were used to estimate the probabilities used in the model. A Markov cohort analysis was used to determine the optimal strategy with life expectancy and quality adjusted life expectancy as the outcomes. Sensitivity analyses, including a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, were performed using Monte Carlo simulation.

Results

The wait strategy results in a higher life expectancy (66.6 versus 65.9 months) and quality adjusted life expectancy (38.9 versus 38.5 quality adjusted life months) than immediate AVF creation. It was robust across all the parameters except at higher rates of progression and lower rates of ischemic steal syndrome.

Conclusions

Early creation of an AVF, as recommended by most guidelines, may not be the preferred strategy in all pre-dialysis patients. Further research on cost implications and patient preferences for treatment options needs to be done before recommending early AVF creation.  相似文献   

8.

Setting

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) unit in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

Objective

To develop and evaluate a nurse case management model and intervention using the tenets of the Chronic Care Model to manage treatment for MDR-TB patients with a high prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) co-infection.

Design

A quasi-experimental pilot programme utilizing a nurse case manager to manage care for 40 hospitalized MDR-TB patients, 70% HIV co-infected, during the intensive phase of MDR-TB treatment. Patients were followed for six months to compare proximal outcomes identified in the model between the pre- and post-intervention period.

Results

The greatest percent differences between baseline and six-month MDR-TB proximal outcomes were seen in the following three areas: baseline symptom evaluation on treatment initiation (95% improvement), baseline and monthly laboratory evaluations completed per guidelines (75% improvement), and adverse drug reactions acted upon by medical and/or nursing intervention (75% improvement).

Conclusion

Improvements were identified in guideline-based treatment and monitoring of adverse drug reactions following implementation of the nurse case management intervention. Further study is required to determine if the intervention introduced in this model will ultimately result in improvements in final MDR-TB treatment outcomes.  相似文献   

9.
10.
Zhao Z  Ma W  Zeng G  Qi D  Ou L  Liang Y 《PloS one》2011,6(5):e19284

Background

Early prostate cancer antigen (EPCA) has been shown a prostate cancer (PCa)-associated nuclear matrix protein, however, its serum status and prognostic power in PCa are unknown. The goals of this study are to measure serum EPCA levels in a cohort of patients with PCa prior to the treatment, and to evaluate the clinical value of serum EPCA.

Methods

Pretreatment serum EPCA levels were determined with an ELISA in 77 patients with clinically localized PCa who underwent radical prostatectomy and 51 patients with locally advanced or metastatic disease who received primary androgen deprivation therapy, and were correlated with clinicopathological variables and disease progression. Serum EPCA levels were also examined in 40 healthy controls.

Results

Pretreatment mean serum EPCA levels were significantly higher in PCa patients than in controls (16.84±7.60 ng/ml vs. 4.12±2.05 ng/ml, P<0.001). Patients with locally advanced and metastatic PCa had significantly higher serum EPCA level than those with clinically localized PCa (22.93±5.28 ng/ml and 29.41±8.47 ng/ml vs. 15.17±6.03 ng/ml, P = 0.014 and P<0.001, respectively). Significantly elevated EPCA level was also found in metastatic PCa compared with locally advanced disease (P<0.001). Increased serum EPCA levels were significantly and positively correlated with Gleason score and clinical stage, but not with PSA levels and age. On multivariate analysis, pretreatment serum EPCA level held the most significantly predictive value for the biochemical recurrence and androgen-independent progression among pretreatment variables (HR = 4.860, P<0.001 and HR = 5.418, P<0.001, respectively).

Conclusions

Serum EPCA level is markedly elevated in PCa. Pretreatment serum EPCA level correlates significantly with the poor prognosis, showing prediction potential for PCa progression.  相似文献   

11.

Background

Emerging evidence suggests that statins may decrease the risk of cancers. However, available evidence on prostate cancer (PCa) is conflicting. We therefore examined the association between statin use and risk of PCa by conducting a detailed meta-analysis of all observational studies published regarding this subject.

Methods

Literature search in PubMed database was undertaken through February 2012 looking for observational studies evaluating the association between statin use and risk of PCa. Before meta-analysis, the studies were evaluated for publication bias and heterogeneity. Pooled relative risk (RR) estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using random-effects model (DerSimonian and Laird method). Subgroup analyses, sensitivity analysis and cumulative meta-analysis were also performed.

Results

A total of 27 (15 cohort and 12 case-control) studies contributed to the analysis. There was heterogeneity among the studies but no publication bias. Statin use significantly reduced the risk of both total PCa by 7% (RR 0.93, 95% CI 0.87–0.99, p = 0.03) and clinically important advanced PCa by 20% (RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.70–0.90, p<0.001). Long-term statin use did not significantly affect the risk of total PCa (RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.84–1.05, p = 0.31). Stratification by study design did not substantially influence the RR. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis confirmed the stability of results. Cumulative meta-analysis showed a change in trend of reporting risk from positive to negative in statin users between 1993 and 2011.

Conclusions

Our meta-analysis provides evidence supporting the hypothesis that statins reduce the risk of both total PCa and clinically important advanced PCa. Further research is needed to confirm these findings and to identify the underlying biological mechanisms.  相似文献   

12.

Objective

To determine the cost-effectiveness of in-utero percutaneous Vesico Amniotic Shunt (VAS) in the management of fetal lower urinary tract obstruction (LUTO)

Design

Model based economic analysis using data from the randomised controlled arm of the PLUTO (percutaneous vesico-amniotic shunting for lower urinary tract obstruction) trial.

Setting

Fetal medicine departments in United Kingdom, Ireland and Netherlands.

Population or Sample

Pregnant women with a male, singleton fetus with LUTO.

Methods

Costs and outcomes were prospectively collected in the trial; three separate base case analyses were performed using the intention to treat (ITT), per protocol and uniform prior methods. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to explore data uncertainty.

Main Outcome Measures

Survival at 28 days, 1 year and disease free survival at 1 year.

Results

VAS was more expensive but appeared to result in higher rates of survival compared with conservative management in patients with LUTO. Using ITT analysis the incremental cost effectiveness ratios based on outcomes of survival at 28 days, 1 year, or 1 morbidity-free year on the VAS arm were £15,506, £15,545, and £43,932, respectively.

Conclusions

VAS is a more expensive option compared to the conservative approach in the management of individuals with LUTO. Data from the RCT suggest that VAS improves neonatal survival but does not result in significant improvements in morbidity. Our analysis concludes that VAS is not likely to be cost effective in the management of these patients given the NICE (National Institute of Health and Clinical Excellence) cost threshold of £20,000 per QALY.  相似文献   

13.
14.

Background

The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has risen rapidly in the U.S. and western world. The aim of the study was to begin the investigation of this rapid rise by developing, calibrating, and validating a mathematical disease simulation model of EAC using available epidemiologic data.

Methods

The model represents the natural history of EAC, including the essential biologic health states from normal mucosa to detected cancer. Progression rates between health states were estimated via calibration, which identified distinct parameter sets producing model outputs that fit epidemiologic data; specifically, the prevalence of pre-cancerous lesions and EAC cancer incidence from the published literature and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data. As an illustrative example of a clinical and policy application, the calibrated and validated model retrospectively analyzed the potential benefit of an aspirin chemoprevention program.

Results

Model outcomes approximated calibration targets; results of the model''s fit and validation are presented. Approximately 7,000 cases of EAC could have been prevented over a 30-year period if all white males started aspirin chemoprevention at age 40 in 1965.

Conclusions

The model serves as the foundation for future analyses to determine a cost-effective screening and management strategy to prevent EAC morbidity and mortality.  相似文献   

15.

Background

Survivin is expressed in prostate cancer (PCa), and its downregulation sensitizes PCa cells to chemotherapeutic agents in vitro and in vivo. Small membrane-bound vesicles called exosomes, secreted from the endosomal membrane compartment, contain RNA and protein that they readily transport via exosome internalization into recipient cells. Recent progress has shown that tumor-derived exosomes play multiple roles in tumor growth and metastasis and may produce these functions via immune escape, tumor invasion and angiogenesis. Furthermore, exosome analysis may provide novel biomarkers to diagnose or monitor PCa treatment.

Methods

Exosomes were purified from the plasma and serum from 39 PCa patients, 20 BPH patients, 8 prostate cancer recurrent and 16 healthy controls using ultracentrifugation and their quantities and qualities were quantified and visualized from both the plasma and the purified exosomes using ELISA and Western blotting, respectively.

Results

Survivin was significantly increased in the tumor-derived samples, compared to those from BPH and controls with virtually no difference in the quantity of Survivin detected in exosomes collected from newly diagnosed patients exhibiting low (six) or high (nine) Gleason scores. Exosome Survivin levels were also higher in patients that had relapsed on chemotherapy compared to controls.

Conclusions

These studies demonstrate that Survivin exists in plasma exosomes from both normal, BPH and PCa subjects. The relative amounts of exosomal Survivin in PCa plasma was significantly higher than in those with pre-inflammatory BPH and control plasma. This differential expression of exosomal Survivin was seen with both newly diagnosed and advanced PCa subjects with high or low-grade cancers. Analysis of plasma exosomal Survivin levels may offer a convenient tool for diagnosing or monitoring PCa and may, as it is elevated in low as well as high Gleason scored samples, be used for early detection.  相似文献   

16.

Background

Cancer staging and treatment presumes a division into localized or metastatic disease. We proposed an intermediate state defined by ≤5 cumulative metastasis(es), termed oligometastases. In contrast to widespread polymetastases, oligometastatic patients may benefit from metastasis-directed local treatments. However, many patients who initially present with oligometastases progress to polymetastases. Predictors of progression could improve patient selection for metastasis-directed therapy.

Methods

Here, we identified patterns of microRNA expression of tumor samples from oligometastatic patients treated with high-dose radiotherapy.

Results

Patients who failed to develop polymetastases are characterized by unique prioritized features of a microRNA classifier that includes the microRNA-200 family. We created an oligometastatic-polymetastatic xenograft model in which the patient-derived microRNAs discriminated between the two metastatic outcomes. MicroRNA-200c enhancement in an oligometastatic cell line resulted in polymetastatic progression.

Conclusions

These results demonstrate a biological basis for oligometastases and a potential for using microRNA expression to identify patients most likely to remain oligometastatic after metastasis-directed treatment.  相似文献   

17.

Background

Our objective was to develop and validate a multi-feature nuclear score based on image analysis of direct DNA staining, and to test its association with field effects and subsequent detection of prostate cancer (PCa) in benign biopsies.

Methods

Tissue sections from 39 prostatectomies were Feulgen-stained and digitally scanned (400×), providing maps of DNA content per pixel. PCa and benign epithelial nuclei were randomly selected for measurement of 52 basic morphometric features. Logistic regression models discriminating benign from PCa nuclei, and benign from malignant nuclear populations, were built and cross-validated by AUC analysis. Nuclear populations were randomly collected <1 mm or >5 mm from cancer foci, and from cancer-free prostates, HGPIN, and PCa Gleason grade 3–5. Nuclei also were collected from negative biopsy subjects who had a subsequent diagnosis of PCa and age-matched cancer-free controls (20 pairs).

Results

A multi-feature nuclear score discriminated cancer from benign cell populations with AUCs of 0.91 and 0.79, respectively, in training and validation sets of patients. In prostatectomy samples, both nuclear- and population-level models revealed cancer-like features in benign nuclei adjacent to PCa, compared to nuclei that were more distant or from PCa-free glands. In negative biopsies, a validated model with 5 variance features yielded significantly higher scores in cases than controls (P = 0.026).

Conclusions

A multifeature nuclear morphometric score, obtained by automated digital analysis, was validated for discrimination of benign from cancer nuclei. This score demonstrated field effects in benign epithelial nuclei at varying distance from PCa lesions, and was associated with subsequent PCa detection in negative biopsies.

Impact

This nuclear score shows promise as a risk predictor among men with negative biopsies and as an intermediate biomarker in Phase II chemoprevention trials. The results also suggest that subvisual disturbances in nuclear structure precede the development of pre-neoplastic lesions.  相似文献   

18.

Objectives

There is little data about the clinical value of core length for prostate biopsy (PBx). We investigated the clinical values of various clinicopathological biopsy-related parameters, including core length, in the contemporary multi-core PBx.

Patients and Methods

Medical records of 5,243 consecutive patients who received PBx at our institution were reviewed. Among them, 3,479 patients with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) ≤10ng/ml level who received transrectal ultrasound (TRUS)-guided multi (≥12)-core PBx at our institution were analyzed for prostate cancer (PCa). Gleason score upgrading (GSU) was analyzed in 339 patients who were diagnosed with low-risk PCa and received radical prostatectomy. Multivariate logistic regression analyses for PCa detection and prediction of GSU were performed.

Results

The mean age and PSA of the entire cohort were 63.5 years and 5.4ng/ml, respectively. The overall cancer detection rate was 28.5%. There was no statistical difference in core length between patients diagnosed with PCa and those without PCa (16.1 ± 1.8 vs 16.1 ± 1.9mm, P = 0.945). The core length was also not significantly different (16.4 ± 1.7 vs 16.4 ± 1.6mm, P = 0.889) between the GSU group and non-GSU group. Multivariate logistic regression analyses demonstrated that the core length of PBx did not affect PCa detection in TRUS-guided multi-core PBx (P = 0.923) and was not prognostic for GSU in patients with low-risk PCa (P = 0.356).

Conclusions

In patients undergoing contemporary multi-core PBx, core length may not have significant impact on PCa detection and also GSU following radical prostatectomy among low-risk PCa group.  相似文献   

19.

Background

The demographic transition and increasing life expectancy in Africa has lead to a rising elderly population. In Nigeria, little is known about the profile of and treatment outcomes of tuberculosis (TB) in the elderly.

Methods

Retrospective cohort study of adult TB patients treated between January 2011 and December 2012 in two large health facilities in Nigeria. The demographic, clinical and treatment outcomes of patients aged 60 and older were compared with those aged 15 to 59 years.

Results

Elderly (≥60 years) TB patients accounted for 12.7% of all (1668) adult TB enrolled. Elderly patients had a higher proportion of men compared to non-elderly (64.2% vs 56.8%; p = 0.043); but a lower proportion of smear-positive TB at baseline (40.7% vs 65.8%; p<0.001). A higher proportion of elderly patients failed to smear convert after the intensive phase of treatment (23.7% vs 19.8%; p = 0.06), and overall elderly patients had lower treatment success rates (68.9% vs 77.1%; p = 0.009). Unsuccessful outcomes were mainly due to higher default and deaths in the elderly. The risk factors for unsuccessful outcomes in the elderly were: extrapulmonary TB case (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 10.9; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1–108), and HIV co-infection (aOR 3.6; CI 1.1–11.7).

Conclusions

Treatment outcomes of elderly TB patients were inferior to non-elderly adults with higher death and default rates being implicated. With the rising elderly population, specific strategies are needed to quickly address TB management in the elderly in resource-limited settings.  相似文献   

20.

Objective

This study aimed external validation of a formerly developed prediction model identifying children at risk for hearing loss after bacterial meningitis (BM). Independent risk factors included in the model are: duration of symptoms prior to admission, petechiae, cerebral spinal fluid (CSF) glucose level, Streptococcus pneumoniae and ataxia. Validation helps to evaluate whether the model has potential in clinical practice.

Study design

116 Dutch school-age BM survivors were included in the validation cohort and screened for sensorineural hearing loss (>25 dB). Risk factors were obtained from medical records. The model was applied to the validation cohort and its performance was compared with the development cohort. Validation was performed by application of the model on the validation cohort and by assessment of discrimination and goodness of fit. Calibration was evaluated by testing deviations in intercept and slope. Multiple imputation techniques were used to deal with missing values.

Results

Risk factors were distributed equally between both cohorts. Discriminative ability (Area Under the Curve, AUC) of the model was 0.84 in the development and 0.78 in the validation cohort. Hosmer-Lemeshow test for goodness of fit was not significant in the validation cohort, implying good fit concerning the similarity of expected and observed cases. There were no significant differences in calibration slope and intercept. Sensitivity and negative predicted value were high, while specificity and positive predicted value were low which is comparable with findings in the development cohort.

Conclusions

Performance of the model remained good in the validation cohort. This prediction model might be used as a screening tool and can help to identify those children that need special attention and a long follow-up period or more frequent auditory testing.  相似文献   

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