Efficient targeted learning of heterogeneous treatment effects for multiple subgroups

In biomedical science, analyzing treatment effect heterogeneity plays an essential role in assisting personalized medicine. The main goals of analyzing treatment effect heterogeneity include estimating treatment effects in clinically relevant subgroups and predicting whether a patient subpopulation might benefit from a particular treatment. Conventional approaches often evaluate the subgroup treatment effects via parametric modeling and can thus be susceptible to model mis-specifications. In this paper, we take a model-free semiparametric perspective and aim to efficiently evaluate the heterogeneous treatment effects of multiple subgroups simultaneously under the one-step targeted maximum-likelihood estimation (TMLE) framework. When the number of subgroups is large, we further expand this path of research by looking at a variation of the one-step TMLE that is robust to the presence of small estimated propensity scores in finite samples. From our simulations, our method demonstrates substantial finite sample improvements compared to conventional methods. In a case study, our method unveils the potential treatment effect heterogeneity of rs12916-T allele (a proxy for statin usage) in decreasing Alzheimer's disease risk.     

A semiparametric approach for composite functional mapping of dynamic quantitative traits

Functional mapping has emerged as a powerful tool for mapping quantitative trait loci (QTL) that control developmental patterns of complex dynamic traits. Original functional mapping has been constructed within the context of simple interval mapping, without consideration of separate multiple linked QTL for a dynamic trait. In this article, we present a statistical framework for mapping QTL that affect dynamic traits by capitalizing on the strengths of functional mapping and composite interval mapping. Within this so-called composite functional-mapping framework, functional mapping models the time-dependent genetic effects of a QTL tested within a marker interval using a biologically meaningful parametric function, whereas composite interval mapping models the time-dependent genetic effects of the markers outside the test interval to control the genome background using a flexible nonparametric approach based on Legendre polynomials. Such a semiparametric framework was formulated by a maximum-likelihood model and implemented with the EM algorithm, allowing for the estimation and the test of the mathematical parameters that define the QTL effects and the regression coefficients of the Legendre polynomials that describe the marker effects. Simulation studies were performed to investigate the statistical behavior of composite functional mapping and compare its advantage in separating multiple linked QTL as compared to functional mapping. We used the new mapping approach to analyze a genetic mapping example in rice, leading to the identification of multiple QTL, some of which are linked on the same chromosome, that control the developmental trajectory of leaf age.     

Statistical methods for multipoint radiation hybrid mapping.

On the basis of the earlier work of Goss and Harris, Cox et al. introduced radiation hybrid (RH) mapping, a somatic cell genetic technique for constructing fine-structure maps of human chromosomes. Radiation hybrid mapping uses X-ray breakage of chromosomes to order a set of genetic loci and to estimate distances between them. To analyze RH mapping data Cox et al. derived statistical methods that employ information on sets of two and four loci, to build an overall locus order. Here we describe alternative nonparametric and maximum-likelihood methods for the analysis of RHs that use information on many loci simultaneously, including information on partially typed hybrids. Combination of these multipoint methods provides a statistically more efficient solution to the locus-ordering problem. We illustrate our approach by applying it to RH mapping data on 14 markers in 99 radiation hybrids for the proximal long arm of human chromosome 21.     

A general statistical framework for mapping quantitative trait loci in nonmodel systems: issue for characterizing linkage phases

Because of uncertainty about linkage phases of founders, linkage mapping in nonmodel, outcrossing systems using molecular markers presents one of the major statistical challenges in genetic research. In this article, we devise a statistical method for mapping QTL affecting a complex trait by incorporating all possible QTL-marker linkage phases within a mapping framework. The advantage of this model is the simultaneous estimation of linkage phases and QTL location and effect parameters. These estimates are obtained through maximum-likelihood methods implemented with the EM algorithm. Extensive simulation studies are performed to investigate the statistical properties of our model. In a case study from a forest tree, this model has successfully identified a significant QTL affecting wood density. Also, the probability of the linkage phase between this QTL and its flanking markers is estimated. The implications of our model and its extension to more general circumstances are discussed.     

Multiplex relative risk and estimation of the number of loci underlying an inherited disease

Knowledge of the number of causative loci is necessary to estimate the power of mapping studies of complex diseases. In the present article, we reexamine a theory developed by Risch and its implications for estimating the number L of causative loci affecting a complex inherited disease. We first show that methods based on Risch's analysis can produce estimates of L that are inconsistent with the observed population prevalence of the disease. We demonstrate this point by showing that the maximum-likelihood estimate for L produced by the method of Farrall and Holder for cleft lip/cleft palate data is not consistent with the prevalence under the multiplicative model. We show how to incorporate disease prevalence and develop a maximum-likelihood method for estimating L that uses the entire distribution of numbers of affected individuals in families containing an affected individual. This method avoids the potential inconsistencies of the Risch method and has greater precision. We apply our method to data on cleft lip/cleft palate and schizophrenia.     

Bayesian fine-scale mapping of disease loci, by hidden Markov models

We present a new multilocus method for the fine-scale mapping of genes contributing to human diseases. The method is designed for use with multiple biallelic markers-in particular, single-nucleotide polymorphisms for which high-density genetic maps will soon be available. We model disease-marker association in a candidate region via a hidden Markov process and allow for correlation between linked marker loci. Using Markov-chain-Monte Carlo simulation methods, we obtain posterior distributions of model parameter estimates including disease-gene location and the age of the disease-predisposing mutation. In addition, we allow for heterogeneity in recombination rates, across the candidate region, to account for recombination hot and cold spots. We also obtain, for the ancestral marker haplotype, a posterior distribution that is unique to our method and that, unlike maximum-likelihood estimation, can properly account for uncertainty. We apply the method to data for cystic fibrosis and Huntington disease, for which mutations in disease genes have already been identified. The new method performs well compared with existing multi-locus mapping methods.     

互作基因定位方法的研究和计算机软件的开发

质量性状中存在6种可能的基因互作类型, 即互补、重叠、累加、显性上位、隐性上位和抑制。在遗传研究中, 有时会遇到互作基因定位的问题, 但至今未见有关互作基因定位方法和计算机软件的系统的研究报道。文章给出了基于极大似然估计的互作基因定位方法及相应的计算机软件(IGMapping 1.0)。计算机模拟表明, 此方法可以无偏地估计一个共显性标记与一个互作基因之间的重组率或连锁距离。     

Targeted maximum likelihood estimation of the parameter of a marginal structural model

Targeted maximum likelihood estimation is a versatile tool for estimating parameters in semiparametric and nonparametric models. We work through an example applying targeted maximum likelihood methodology to estimate the parameter of a marginal structural model. In the case we consider, we show how this can be easily done by clever use of standard statistical software. We point out differences between targeted maximum likelihood estimation and other approaches (including estimating function based methods). The application we consider is to estimate the effect of adherence to antiretroviral medications on virologic failure in HIV positive individuals.     

Dose-response curve estimation: a semiparametric mixture approach

In the estimation of a dose-response curve, parametric models are straightforward and efficient but subject to model misspecifications; nonparametric methods are robust but less efficient. As a compromise, we propose a semiparametric approach that combines the advantages of parametric and nonparametric curve estimates. In a mixture form, our estimator takes a weighted average of the parametric and nonparametric curve estimates, in which a higher weight is assigned to the estimate with a better model fit. When the parametric model assumption holds, the semiparametric curve estimate converges to the parametric estimate and thus achieves high efficiency; when the parametric model is misspecified, the semiparametric estimate converges to the nonparametric estimate and remains consistent. We also consider an adaptive weighting scheme to allow the weight to vary according to the local fit of the models. We conduct extensive simulation studies to investigate the performance of the proposed methods and illustrate them with two real examples.     

A haplotype-based algorithm for multilocus linkage disequilibrium mapping of quantitative trait loci with epistasis

For tightly linked loci, cosegregation may lead to nonrandom associations between alleles in a population. Because of its evolutionary relationship with linkage, this phenomenon is called linkage disequilibrium. Today, linkage disequilibrium-based mapping has become a major focus of recent genome research into mapping complex traits. In this article, we present a new statistical method for mapping quantitative trait loci (QTL) of additive, dominant, and epistatic effects in equilibrium natural populations. Our method is based on haplotype analysis of multilocus linkage disequilibrium and exhibits two significant advantages over current disequilibrium mapping methods. First, we have derived closed-form solutions for estimating the marker-QTL haplotype frequencies within the maximum-likelihood framework implemented by the EM algorithm. The allele frequencies of putative QTL and their linkage disequilibria with the markers are estimated by solving a system of regular equations. This procedure has significantly improved the computational efficiency and the precision of parameter estimation. Second, our method can detect marker-QTL disequilibria of different orders and QTL epistatic interactions of various kinds on the basis of a multilocus analysis. This can not only enhance the precision of parameter estimation, but also make it possible to perform whole-genome association studies. We carried out extensive simulation studies to examine the robustness and statistical performance of our method. The application of the new method was validated using a case study from humans, in which we successfully detected significant QTL affecting human body heights. Finally, we discuss the implications of our method for genome projects and its extension to a broader circumstance. The computer program for the method proposed in this article is available at the webpage http://www.ifasstat.ufl.edu/genome/~LD.     

Semiparametric regression modeling with mixtures of Berkson and classical error, with application to fallout from the Nevada test site

We construct Bayesian methods for semiparametric modeling of a monotonic regression function when the predictors are measured with classical error. Berkson error, or a mixture of the two. Such methods require a distribution for the unobserved (latent) predictor, a distribution we also model semiparametrically. Such combinations of semiparametric methods for the dose response as well as the latent variable distribution have not been considered in the measurement error literature for any form of measurement error. In addition, our methods represent a new approach to those problems where the measurement error combines Berkson and classical components. While the methods are general, we develop them around a specific application, namely, the study of thyroid disease in relation to radiation fallout from the Nevada test site. We use this data to illustrate our methods, which suggest a point estimate (posterior mean) of relative risk at high doses nearly double that of previous analyses but that also suggest much greater uncertainty in the relative risk.     

Multipoint gene mapping using seriation. II. Analysis of simulated and empirical data.

Seriation methods provide an accurate and efficient means of constructing preliminary multilocus genetic maps. By using both simulated and previously published empirical data, multipoint mapping by seriation was critically evaluated. Analysis of the simulated data sets showed that the seriation methodology could accurately estimate order and interlocus distances. Application to the empirical data demonstrated that seriation could obtain results directly comparable with those of other multipoint mapping methods. Techniques such as seriation can produce preliminary genetic maps that may be used as starting points for more computer-intensive maximum-likelihood multipoint techniques.     

A simple regression method for mapping quantitative trait loci in line crosses using flanking markers

The use of flanking marker methods has proved to be a powerful tool for the mapping of quantitative trait loci (QTL) in the segregating generations derived from crosses between inbred lines. Methods to analyse these data, based on maximum-likelihood, have been developed and provide good estimates of QTL effects in some situations. Maximum-likelihood methods are, however, relatively complex and can be computationally slow. In this paper we develop methods for mapping QTL based on multiple regression which can be applied using any general statistical package. We use the example of mapping in an F(2) population and show that these regression methods produce very similar results to those obtained using maximum likelihood. The relative simplicity of the regression methods means that models with more than a single QTL can be explored and we give examples of two lined loci and of two interacting loci. Other models, for example with more than two QTL, with environmental fixed effects, with between family variance or for threshold traits, could be fitted in a similar way. The ease, speed of application and generality of regression methods for flanking marker analysis, and the good estimates they obtain, suggest that they should provide the method of choice for the analysis of QTL mapping data from inbred line crosses.     

Comparison of mixed-model approaches for association mapping

Association-mapping methods promise to overcome the limitations of linkage-mapping methods. The main objectives of this study were to (i) evaluate various methods for association mapping in the autogamous species wheat using an empirical data set, (ii) determine a marker-based kinship matrix using a restricted maximum-likelihood (REML) estimate of the probability of two alleles at the same locus being identical in state but not identical by descent, and (iii) compare the results of association-mapping approaches based on adjusted entry means (two-step approaches) with the results of approaches in which the phenotypic data analysis and the association analysis were performed in one step (one-step approaches). On the basis of the phenotypic and genotypic data of 303 soft winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) inbreds, various association-mapping methods were evaluated. Spearman's rank correlation between P-values calculated on the basis of one- and two-stage association-mapping methods ranged from 0.63 to 0.93. The mixed-model association-mapping approaches using a kinship matrix estimated by REML are more appropriate for association mapping than the recently proposed QK method with respect to (i) the adherence to the nominal alpha-level and (ii) the adjusted power for detection of quantitative trait loci. Furthermore, we showed that our data set could be analyzed by using two-step approaches of the proposed association-mapping method without substantially increasing the empirical type I error rate in comparison to the corresponding one-step approaches.     

Bayesian mapping of quantitative trait loci for multiple complex traits with the use of variance components

Complex traits important for humans are often correlated phenotypically and genetically. Joint mapping of quantitative-trait loci (QTLs) for multiple correlated traits plays an important role in unraveling the genetic architecture of complex traits. Compared with single-trait analysis, joint mapping addresses more questions and has advantages for power of QTL detection and precision of parameter estimation. Some statistical methods have been developed to map QTLs underlying multiple traits, most of which are based on maximum-likelihood methods. We develop here a multivariate version of the Bayes methodology for joint mapping of QTLs, using the Markov chain-Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. We adopt a variance-components method to model complex traits in outbred populations (e.g., humans). The method is robust, can deal with an arbitrary number of alleles with arbitrary patterns of gene actions (such as additive and dominant), and allows for multiple phenotype data of various types in the joint analysis (e.g., multiple continuous traits and mixtures of continuous traits and discrete traits). Under a Bayesian framework, parameters--including the number of QTLs--are estimated on the basis of their marginal posterior samples, which are generated through two samplers, the Gibbs sampler and the reversible-jump MCMC. In addition, we calculate the Bayes factor related to each identified QTL, to test coincident linkage versus pleiotropy. The performance of our method is evaluated in simulations with full-sib families. The results show that our proposed Bayesian joint-mapping method performs well for mapping multiple QTLs in situations of either bivariate continuous traits or mixed data types. Compared with the analysis for each trait separately, Bayesian joint mapping improves statistical power, provides stronger evidence of QTL detection, and increases precision in estimation of parameter and QTL position. We also applied the proposed method to a set of real data and detected a coincident linkage responsible for determining bone mineral density and areal bone size of wrist in humans.     

Complete multipoint sib-pair analysis of qualitative and quantitative traits.

Sib-pair analysis is an increasingly important tool for genetic dissection of complex traits. Current methods for sib-pair analysis are primarily based on studying individual genetic markers one at a time and thus fail to use the full inheritance information provided by multipoint linkage analysis. In this paper, we describe how to extract the complete multipoint inheritance information for each sib pair. We then describe methods that use this information to map loci affecting traits, thereby providing a unified approach to both qualitative and quantitative traits. Specifically, complete multipoint approaches are presented for (1) exclusion mapping of qualitative traits; (2) maximum-likelihood mapping of qualitative traits; (3) information-content mapping, showing the extent to which all inheritance information has been extracted at each location in the genome; and (4) quantitative-trait mapping, by two parametric methods and one nonparametric method. In addition, we explore the effects of marker density, marker polymorphism, and availability of parents on the information content of a study. We have implemented the analysis methods in a new computer package, MAPMAKER/SIBS. With this computer package, complete multipoint analysis with dozens of markers in hundreds of sib pairs can be carried out in minutes.     

Multipoint mapping of viability and segregation distorting loci using molecular markers

In line-crossing experiments, deviations from Mendelian segregation ratios are usually observed for some markers. We hypothesize that these deviations are caused by one or more segregation-distorting loci (SDL) linked to the markers. We develop both a maximum-likelihood (ML) method and a Bayesian method to map SDL using molecular markers. The ML mapping is implemented via an EM algorithm and the Bayesian method is performed via the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The Bayesian mapping is computationally more intensive than the ML mapping but can handle more complicated models such as multiple SDL and variable number of SDL. Both methods are applied to a set of simulated data and real data from a cross of two Scots pine trees.     

A semiparametric test to detect associations between quantitative traits and candidate genes in structured populations

MOTIVATION: Although population-based association mapping may be subject to the bias caused by population stratification, alternative methods that are robust to population stratification such as family-based linkage analysis have lower mapping resolution. Recently, various statistical methods robust to population stratification were proposed for association studies, using unrelated individuals to identify associations between candidate genes and traits of interest. The association between a candidate gene and a quantitative trait is often evaluated via a regression model with inferred population structure variables as covariates, where the residual distribution is customarily assumed to be from a symmetric and unimodal parametric family, such as a Gaussian, although this may be inappropriate for the analysis of many real-life datasets. RESULTS: In this article, we proposed a new structured association (SA) test. Our method corrects for continuous population stratification by first deriving population structure and kinship matrices through a set of random genetic markers and then modeling the relationship between trait values, genotypic scores at a candidate marker and genetic background variables through a semiparametric model, where the error distribution is modeled as a mixture of Polya trees centered around a normal family of distributions. We compared our model to the existing SA tests in terms of model fit, type I error rate, power, precision and accuracy by application to a real dataset as well as simulated datasets.     

Semiparametric Bayesian Survival Analysis using Models with Log‐linear Median

Summary We present a novel semiparametric survival model with a log‐linear median regression function. As a useful alternative to existing semiparametric models, our large model class has many important practical advantages, including interpretation of the regression parameters via the median and the ability to address heteroscedasticity. We demonstrate that our modeling technique facilitates the ease of prior elicitation and computation for both parametric and semiparametric Bayesian analysis of survival data. We illustrate the advantages of our modeling, as well as model diagnostics, via a reanalysis of a small‐cell lung cancer study. Results of our simulation study provide further support for our model in practice.     

EVALUATION OF THE RESTRICTED MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD METHOD FOR ESTIMATING PHYLOGENETIC TREES USING SIMULATED ALLELE-FREQUENCY DATA

Comparisons are made of the accuracy of the restricted maximum-likelihood, Wagner parsimony, and UPGMA (unweighted pair-group method using arithmetic averages) clustering methods to estimate phylogenetic trees. Data matrices were generated by constructing simulated stochastic evolution in a multidimensional gene-frequency space using a simple genetic-drift model (Brownian-motion, random-walk) with constant rates of divergence in all lineages. Ten differentphylogenetic tree topologies of 20 operational taxonomic units (OTU's), representing a range of tree shapes, were used. Felsenstein's restricted maximum-likelihood method, Wagner parsimony, and UPGMA clustering were used to construct trees from the resulting data matrices. The computations for the restricted maximum-likelihood method were performed on a Cray-1 supercomputer since the required calculations (especially when optimized for the vector hardware) are performed substantially faster than on more conventional computing systems. The overall level of accuracy of tree reconstruction depends on the topology of the true phylogenetic tree. The UPGMA clustering method, especially when genetic-distance coefficients are used, gives the most accurate estimates of the true phylogeny (for our model with constant evolutionary rates). For large numbers of loci, all methods give similar results, but trends in the results imply that the restricted maximum-likelihood method would produce the most accurate trees if sample sizes were large enough.