Recruitment Variability of Coral Reef Sessile Communities of the Far North Great Barrier Reef

One of the key components in assessing marine sessile organism demography is determining recruitment patterns to benthic habitats. An analysis of serially deployed recruitment tiles across depth (6 and 12 m), seasons (summer and winter) and space (meters to kilometres) was used to quantify recruitment assemblage structure (abundance and percent cover) of corals, sponges, ascidians, algae and other sessile organisms from the northern sector of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Polychaetes were most abundant on recruitment titles, reaching almost 50% of total recruitment, yet covered <5% of each tile. In contrast, mean abundances of sponges, ascidians, algae, and bryozoans combined was generally less than 20% of total recruitment, with percentage cover ranging between 15–30% per tile. Coral recruitment was very low, with <1 recruit per tile identified. A hierarchal analysis of variation over a range of spatial and temporal scales showed significant spatio-temporal variation in recruitment patterns, but the highest variability occurred at the lowest spatial scale examined (1 m—among tiles). Temporal variability in recruitment of both numbers of taxa and percentage cover was also evident across both summer and winter. Recruitment across depth varied for some taxonomic groups like algae, sponges and ascidians, with greatest differences in summer. This study presents some of the first data on benthic recruitment within the northern GBR and provides a greater understanding of population ecology for coral reefs.     

Krill (Euphausia superba) density, proportional and absolute recruitment and biomass in the Elephant Island region (Antarctic Peninsula) during the period 1977 to 1997

The Elephant Island region (Antarctic Peninsula) was selected as a long-term monitoring site to describe the interannual variability of important krill stock parameters. The analysis reviewed and updated krill density and proportional recruitment indices. Krill absolute recruitment and biomass from net sampling surveys are introduced as additional indices from this time series. New survey results from the past two seasons indicate a very successful 1994/1995 year-class and slightly below average proportional recruitment of the 1995/1996 krill year-class. Absolute recruitment of the 1995/1996 year-class was high compared to preceding years, because total stock size was relatively high in 1996/1997. After a period of low krill density and biomass in the area for almost a decade, krill density and biomass have increased. Caution is expressed as to whether this observed increase represents a long-term recovery of the stock. Received: 15 October 1997 / Accepted: 5 January 1998     

Lung Volume Recruitment in Multiple Sclerosis

Introduction

Pulmonary function abnormalities have been described in multiple sclerosis including reductions in forced vital capacity (FVC) and cough but the time course of this impairment is unknown. Peak cough flow (PCF) is an important parameter for patients with respiratory muscle weakness and a reduced PCF has a direct impact on airway clearance and may therefore increase the risk of respiratory tract infections. Lung volume recruitment is a technique that improves PCF by inflating the lungs to their maximal insufflation capacity.

Objectives

Our goals were to describe the rate of decline of pulmonary function and PCF in patients with multiple sclerosis and describe the use of lung volume recruitment in this population.

Methods

We reviewed all patients with multiple sclerosis referred to a respiratory neuromuscular rehabilitation clinic from February 1999 until December 2010. Lung volume recruitment was attempted in patients with FVC <80% predicted. Regular twice daily lung volume recruitment was prescribed if it resulted in a significant improvement in the laboratory.

Results

There were 79 patients included, 35 of whom were seen more than once. A baseline FVC <80% predicted was present in 82% of patients and 80% of patients had a PCF insufficient for airway clearance. There was a significant decline in FVC (122.6 mL/y, 95% CI 54.9–190.3) and PCF (192 mL/s/y, 95% 72–311) over a median follow-up time of 13.4 months. Lung volume recruitment was associated with a slower decline in FVC (p<0.0001) and PCF (p = 0.042).

Conclusion

Pulmonary function and cough decline significantly over time in selected patients with multiple sclerosis and lung volume recruitment is associated with a slower rate of decline in lung function and peak cough flow. Given design limitations, additional studies are needed to assess the role of lung volume recruitment in patients with multiple sclerosis.     

Balancing Theory and Practice in Respondent-Driven Sampling: A Case Study of Innovations Developed to Overcome Recruitment Challenges

Introduction

Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) offers a recruitment strategy for hard-to-reach populations. However, RDS faces logistical and theoretical challenges that threaten efficiency and validity in settings worldwide. We present innovative adaptations to conventional RDS to overcome barriers encountered in recruiting a large, representative sample of men who have sex with men (MSM) who travel internationally.

Methods

Novel methodological adaptations for the “International Travel Research to Inform Prevention” or “I-TRIP” study were offering participants a choice between electronic and paper coupons referrals for recruitment and modifying the secondary incentives structure from small cash amounts to raffle entries for periodic large cash prize raffle drawings. Staged referral limit increases from 3 to 10 referrals and progressive addition of 70 seeds were also implemented.

Results

There were 501 participants enrolled in up to 13 waves of growth. Among participants with a choice of referral methods, 81% selected electronic referrals. Of participants who were recruited electronically, 90% chose to remain with electronic referrals when it was their turn to recruit. The mean number of enrolled referrals was 0.91 for electronic referrals compared to 0.56 for paper coupons. Median referral lag time, i.e., the time interval between when recruiters were given their referrals and when a referred individual enrolled in the study, was 20 days (IQR 10–40) for electronic referrals, 20 days (IQR 8–58) for paper coupons, 20 days (IQR 10–41) for raffle entries and 33 days (IQR 16–148) for small cash incentives.

Conclusions

The recruitment of MSM who travel internationally required maximizing known flexible tools of RDS while at the same time necessitating innovations to increase recruitment efficiency. Electronic referrals emerged as a major advantage in recruiting this hard-to-reach population who are of high socio-economic status, geographically diffuse and highly mobile. These enhancements may improve the performance of RDS in target populations with similar characteristics.     

Ecosystem Scale Declines in Elk Recruitment and Population Growth with Wolf Colonization: A Before-After-Control-Impact Approach

The reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone provided the unusual opportunity for a quasi-experimental test of the effects of wolf predation on their primary prey (elk – Cervus elaphus) in a system where top-down, bottom-up, and abiotic forces on prey population dynamics were closely and consistently monitored before and after reintroduction. Here, we examined data from 33 years for 12 elk population segments spread across southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming in a large scale before-after-control-impact analysis of the effects of wolves on elk recruitment and population dynamics. Recruitment, as measured by the midwinter juvenile∶female ratio, was a strong determinant of elk dynamics, and declined by 35% in elk herds colonized by wolves as annual population growth shifted from increasing to decreasing. Negative effects of population density and winter severity on recruitment, long recognized as important for elk dynamics, were detected in uncolonized elk herds and in wolf-colonized elk herds prior to wolf colonization, but not after wolf colonization. Growing season precipitation and harvest had no detectable effect on recruitment in either wolf treatment or colonization period, although harvest rates of juveniles∶females declined by 37% in wolf-colonized herds. Even if it is assumed that mortality due to predation is completely additive, liberal estimates of wolf predation rates on juvenile elk could explain no more than 52% of the total decline in juvenile∶female ratios in wolf-colonized herds, after accounting for the effects of other limiting factors. Collectively, these long-term, large-scale patterns align well with prior studies that have reported substantial decrease in elk numbers immediately after wolf recolonization, relatively weak additive effects of direct wolf predation on elk survival, and decreased reproduction and recruitment with exposure to predation risk from wolves.     

Host and Bacterial Proteins That Repress Recruitment of LC3 to Shigella Early during Infection

Shigella spp. are intracytosolic gram-negative pathogens that cause disease by invasion and spread through the colonic mucosa, utilizing host cytoskeletal components to form propulsive actin tails. We have previously identified the host factor Toca-1 as being recruited to intracellular S. flexneri and being required for efficient bacterial actin tail formation. We show that at early times during infection (40 min.), the type three-secreted effector protein IcsB recruits Toca-1 to intracellular bacteria and that recruitment of Toca-1 is associated with repression of recruitment of LC3, as well as with repression of recruitment of the autophagy marker NDP52, around these intracellular bacteria. LC3 is best characterized as a marker of autophagosomes, but also marks phagosomal membranes in the process LC3-associated phagocytosis. IcsB has previously been demonstrated to be required for S. flexneri evasion of autophagy at late times during infection (4–6 hr) by inhibiting binding of the autophagy protein Atg5 to the Shigella surface protein IcsA (VirG). Our results suggest that IcsB and Toca-1 modulation of LC3 recruitment restricts LC3-associated phagocytosis and/or LC3 recruitment to vacuolar membrane remnants. Together with published results, our findings suggest that IcsB inhibits innate immune responses in two distinct ways, first, by inhibiting LC3-associated phagocytosis and/or LC3 recruitment to vacuolar membrane remnants early during infection, and second, by inhibiting autophagy late during infection.     

Data-Limited Population-Status Evaluation of Two Coastal Fishes in Southern Angola Using Recreational Catch Length-Frequency Data

Excessive truncation of a population’s size structure is often identified as an important deleterious effect of exploitation, yet the effect on population persistence of size-structure truncation caused by exploitation is often not quantified due to data limitations. In this study, we estimate changes in eggs per recruit (EPR) using annual length-frequency samples over a 9 year period to assess persistence of the two most important recreational fishes in southern Angola: west coast dusky kob (Argyrosomus coronus) and leerfish (Lichia amia). Using a length- and age-structured model, we improve on an existing method to fit this type of model to length-frequency data and estimate EPR. The objectives of the methodological changes are to add flexibility and robustness to the approach for assessing population status in data-limited situations. Results indicate that dusky kob presents very low levels of EPR (5%-10% of the per recruit reproductive capacity in the absence of fishing) in 2013, whereas large inter-annual variability in leerfish estimates suggest caution must be applied when drawing conclusions about its exploitation status. Using simulated length frequency data with known parameter values, we demonstrate that recruitment decline due to overexploitation leads to overestimation of EPR values. Considering the low levels of EPR estimated for the study species, recruitment limitation is not impossible and true EPR values may be even lower than our estimates. It is, therefore, likely that management action, such as the creation of Marine Protected Areas, is needed to reconstitute the west coast dusky kob population.     

Demographic responses to climate‐driven variation in habitat quality across the annual cycle of a migratory bird species

The demography and dynamics of migratory bird populations depend on patterns of movement and habitat quality across the annual cycle. We leveraged archival GPS‐tagging data, climate data, remote‐sensed vegetation data, and bird‐banding data to better understand the dynamics of black‐headed grosbeak (Pheucticus melanocephalus) populations in two breeding regions, the coast and Central Valley of California (Coastal California) and the Sierra Nevada mountain range (Sierra Nevada), over 28 years (1992–2019). Drought conditions across the annual cycle and rainfall timing on the molting grounds influenced seasonal habitat characteristics, including vegetation greenness and phenology (maturity dates). We developed a novel integrated population model with population state informed by adult capture data, recruitment rates informed by age‐specific capture data and climate covariates, and survival rates informed by adult capture–mark–recapture data and climate covariates. Population size was relatively variable among years for Coastal California, where numbers of recruits and survivors were positively correlated, and years of population increase were largely driven by recruitment. In the Sierra Nevada, population size was more consistent and showed stronger evidence of population regulation (numbers of recruits and survivors negatively correlated). Neither region showed evidence of long‐term population trend. We found only weak support for most climate–demographic rate relationships. However, recruitment rates for the Coastal California region were higher when rainfall was relatively early on the molting grounds and when wintering grounds were relatively cool and wet. We suggest that our approach of integrating movement, climate, and demographic data within a novel modeling framework can provide a useful method for better understanding the dynamics of broadly distributed migratory species.     

Divergent responses of Pygoscelis penguins reveal a common environmental driver

The responses of predators to environmental variability in the Antarctic Peninsula region have exhibited divergent patterns owing to variation in the geographic settings of colonies and predator life-history strategies. Five breeding colonies of Pygoscelis penguins from King George Island and Livingston Island, South Shetland Islands, Antarctica, were examined to (1) compare the responses of sympatric congeners to recent changes in their Antarctic ecosystem and (2) assess underlying causes for such responses. We used linear regression and correlation analyses to compare indices of abundance, recruitment, and summer breeding performance of the Adélie (P. adeliae), gentoo (P. papua), and chinstrap penguins (P. antarctica). Breeding colonies of Adélie and chinstrap penguins have declined by roughly 50% since the mid-1970s, and recruitment indices of Adélie penguins have declined by roughly 80%, but no such patterns are evident for gentoo penguins. Fledging success, however, has remained stable at all breeding colonies. The different trends in abundance and recruitment indices for each species, despite generally similar indices of summer performance, suggest that winter conditions contribute to the divergent responses among the penguins. In particular, strong correlations between indices of penguin and krill recruitment suggest that penguins in the South Shetland Islands may live under an increasingly krill-limited system that has disproportionate effects on the survival of juvenile birds.     

Three‐liquid‐phase salting‐out extraction of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA)‐rich oils from Euphausia superba

The TLPSOES parameters were optimized by response surface methodology using Box–Behnken design, which were 16.5% w/w of ammonium citrate, 17.5% w/w of ethanol, and 46% w/w of n‐hexane at 70 min of stirring time. Under optimized conditions the extraction efficiency attained was 90.91 ± 0.97% of EPA, 90.02 ± 1.04% of DHA, and 91.85 ± 1.11% of KO in the top n‐hexane phase. The highest extraction efficiency of proteins and flavonoids, i.e. 88.34 ± 1.35% and 79.67 ± 1.13%, was recorded in the solid interface and ethanol phase, respectively. The KO extracted by TLPSOES system consisted of lowest fluoride level compared to the conventional method and whole wet krill biomass. The TLPSOES is a potential candidate for nutraceutical industry of KO extraction from wet krill biomass.     

Demographics of the Disappearing Bottlenose Dolphin in Argentina: A Common Species on Its Way Out?

Populations of the once common bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) in Argentina have precipitously declined throughout the country in the past decades. Unfortunately, local declines of common species are easily overlooked when establishing priorities for conservation. In this study, demographics of what may well be the last remaining resident population in the country were assessed using mark—recapture analysis (Pollock’s Robust Design) of a photo-identification dataset collected during 2006–2011 in Bahía San Antonio (Patagonia, Argentina). Total abundance, corrected for unmarked individuals, ranged from 40 (95%CI: 16.1–98.8) to 83 (95%CI = 45.8–151.8) individuals and showed a decrease over the years. Adult survival rates varied between 0.97 (± 0.037 SE) and 0.99 (± 0.010 SE). Average calving interval equalled 3.5 ± 1.03 years, with 3.5 births/year in the entire population and a minimum annual birth rate of 4.2%. However, data suggest that calves may have been born and lost before being documented, underestimating birth rate, calf mortality, and possibly the number of reproductive females. Either way, the recruitment rate of calves appears to be insufficient to support the size of the population. This population is relatively small and declining. Considering the disappearance of populations north and south of the study area, an incessant decline will have severe consequences for the continuous existence of this species in Argentina, indicating an urgent need for serious conservation efforts. This study provides insight into how the failure to recognize local population declines can threaten the national (and eventually the international) status of a common species like the bottlenose dolphin.     

Characteristics of Settling Coral Reef Fish Are Related to Recruitment Timing and Success

Many marine populations exhibit high variability in the recruitment of young into the population. While environmental cycles and oceanography explain some patterns of replenishment, the role of other growth-related processes in influencing settlement and recruitment is less clear. Examination of a 65-mo. time series of recruitment of a common coral reef fish, Stegastes partitus, to the reefs of the upper Florida Keys revealed that during peak recruitment months, settlement stage larvae arriving during dark lunar phases grew faster as larvae and were larger at settlement compared to those settling during the light lunar phases. However, the strength and direction of early trait-mediated selective mortality also varied by settlement lunar phase such that the early life history traits of 2–4 week old recruit survivors that settled across the lunar cycle converged to more similar values. Similarly, within peak settlement periods, early life history traits of settling larvae and selective mortality of recruits varied by the magnitude of the settlement event: larvae settling in larger events had longer PLDs and consequently were larger at settlement than those settling in smaller pulses. Traits also varied by recruitment habitat: recruits surviving in live coral habitat (vs rubble) or areas with higher densities of adult conspecifics were those that were larger at settlement. Reef habitats, especially those with high densities of territorial conspecifics, are more challenging habitats for young fish to occupy and small settlers (due to lower larval growth and/or shorter PLDs) to these habitats have a lower chance of survival than they do in rubble habitats. Settling reef fish are not all equal and the time and location of settlement influences the likelihood that individuals will survive to contribute to the population.     

Krill (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Euphausia superba</Emphasis>) recruitment indices from the western Antarctic Peninsula: are they representative of larger regions?

This study presents data on krill demography west of the Antarctic Peninsula covering many years since 1982. The recruitment indices are compared with those for other mesoscale study regions collected over the last 25 years. We use these data to investigate whether results from such mesoscale surveys are representative of large-scale stocks or regional populations. Generally, the proportional recruitment indices for 1- (R₁) and 2-year-old (R₂) krill differ substantially between years for a given area. However, indices were in conformity with the results from other regional scientific surveys. Recruitment indices showed a significant correlation for age-class 1 krill between scientific surveys from the northern Bellingshausen Sea, the Elephant Island area and South Georgia. The correlation becomes weaker for R₂ recruitment indices. There was no correlation between krill recruitment indices from Atlantic and Indian Ocean survey sites. Problems of single-year outliers from Elephant Island are discussed, as well as the problem of "undersized" length classes of the age-1 group that occur in the samples of some years.     

Short-Term Heart Rate Variability—Influence of Gender and Age in Healthy Subjects

In the recent years, short-term heart rate variability (HRV) describing complex variations of beat-to-beat interval series that are mainly controlled by the autonomic nervous system (ANS) has been increasingly analyzed to assess the ANS activity in different diseases and under various conditions. In contrast to long-term HRV analysis, short-term investigations (<30 min) provide a test result almost immediately. Thus, short-term HRV analysis is suitable for ambulatory care, patient monitoring and all those applications where the result is urgently needed. In a previous study, we could show significant variations of 5-min HRV indices according to age in almost all domains (linear and nonlinear) in 1906 healthy subjects from the KORA S4 cohort. Based on the same group of subjects, general gender-related influences on HRV indices are to be determined in this study. Short-term 5-min HRV indices from linear time and frequency domain and from nonlinear methods (compression entropy, detrended fluctuation analysis, traditional and segmented Poincaré plot analysis, irreversibility analysis, symbolic dynamics, correlation and mutual information analysis) were determined from 782 females and 1124 males. First, we examined the gender differences in two age clusters (25–49 years and 50–74 years). Secondly, we investigated the gender-specific development of HRV indices in five age decade categories, namely for ages 25–34, 35–44, 45–54, 55–64 and 65–74 years. In this study, significant modifications of the indices according to gender could be obtained, especially in the frequency domain and correlation analyses. Furthermore, there were significant modifications according to age in nearly all of the domains. The gender differences disappeared within the last two age decades and the age dependencies disappeared in the last decade. To summarize gender and age influences need to be considered when performing HRV studies even if these influences only partly differ.     

Long-term changes in Krill biomass and distribution in the Barents Sea: are the changes mainly related to capelin stock size and temperature conditions?

Krill plays a significant role in the Barents Sea ecosystem, providing energy transport between different trophic levels. The current paper presents the results of a long-term study (1980–2009) based on pelagic trawl catches from August to September. Our investigations show that the krill species were distributed widely in the Barents Sea and that the largest krill concentrations were restricted to the west-central and eastern parts of the Barents Sea. The current paper presents the relative biomass indices, and the estimates must be interpreted as minimum biomass. The mean annual krill biomass was estimated to be 22 million tonnes in wet weight, with the highest values being as much as 48 million tonnes. Capelin is the largest pelagic stock, and in some years, their biomass can amount to 4–7 million tonnes, which can impose high predation pressure on krill. When their biomass is high, capelin may consume close to 26 million tonnes annually. The predation from pelagic (herring and blue whiting) and bottom (cod and haddock) fish species was much lower, being 9 and 1 million tonnes, respectively. A negative relationship between krill biomass and capelin stock size above 74°N was observed during the study period. However, during the last decade, the krill biomass has increased despite heavy predation from capelin in some years. A positive significant linear relationship between the mean annual Kola temperature and the krill biomass seems to indicate that the recent warming conditions have favourable impacts on the krill populations in the Barents Sea.     

Functional Cooperation of the Interleukin-2 Receptor β Chain and Jak1 in Phosphatidylinositol 3-Kinase Recruitment and Phosphorylation

Phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI 3-K) plays an important role in signaling via a wide range of receptors such as those for antigen, growth factors, and a number of cytokines, including interleukin-2 (IL-2). PI 3-K has been implicated in both IL-2-induced proliferation and prevention of apoptosis. A number of potential mechanisms for the recruitment of PI 3-K to the IL-2 receptor have been proposed. We now have found that tyrosine residues in the IL-2 receptor β chain (IL-2Rβ) are unexpectedly not required for the recruitment of the p85 component of PI 3-K. Instead, we find that Jak1, which associates with membrane-proximal regions of the IL-2Rβ cytoplasmic domain, is essential for efficient IL-2Rβ–p85 interaction, although some IL-2Rβ–p85 association can be seen in the absence of Jak1. We also found that Jak1 interacts with p85 in the absence of IL-2Rβ and that IL-2Rβ and Jak1 cooperate for the efficient recruitment and tyrosine phosphorylation of p85. This is the first report of a PI 3-K–Jak1 interaction, and it implicates Jak1 in an essential IL-2 signaling pathway distinct from the activation of STAT proteins.     

Confronting Uncertainty in Wildlife Management: Performance of Grizzly Bear Management

Scientific management of wildlife requires confronting the complexities of natural and social systems. Uncertainty poses a central problem. Whereas the importance of considering uncertainty has been widely discussed, studies of the effects of unaddressed uncertainty on real management systems have been rare. We examined the effects of outcome uncertainty and components of biological uncertainty on hunt management performance, illustrated with grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis) in British Columbia, Canada. We found that both forms of uncertainty can have serious impacts on management performance. Outcome uncertainty alone – discrepancy between expected and realized mortality levels – led to excess mortality in 19% of cases (population-years) examined. Accounting for uncertainty around estimated biological parameters (i.e., biological uncertainty) revealed that excess mortality might have occurred in up to 70% of cases. We offer a general method for identifying targets for exploited species that incorporates uncertainty and maintains the probability of exceeding mortality limits below specified thresholds. Setting targets in our focal system using this method at thresholds of 25% and 5% probability of overmortality would require average target mortality reductions of 47% and 81%, respectively. Application of our transparent and generalizable framework to this or other systems could improve management performance in the presence of uncertainty.     

Ocean Productivity May Predict Recruitment of the Rainbow Wrasse (Coris julis)

Predicting recruitment fluctuations of fish populations remains the Holy Grail of fisheries science. While previous work has linked recruitment of reef fish to environmental variables including temperature, the demonstration of a robust relationship with productivity remains elusive. Despite decades of research, empirical evidence to support this critical link remains limited. Here we identify a consistent and strong relationship between recruitment of a temperate wrasse Coris julis, from temperate reefs in the mid-Atlantic region, with Chlorophyll, over contrasting scales, across multiple years. Additionally, we find that the correlation between Chlorophyll and recruitment is not simply masking a temperature-recruitment relationship. Understanding the potential mechanisms underlying recruitment variability, particularly as it relates to changing climate and ocean regimes, is a critical first step towards characterizing species’ vulnerability to mismatches between pulsed planktonic production and early pelagic life stages.     

Amazonian invaders in an Asian biodiversity hotspot: Understanding demographics for the management of the armoured sailfin catfish,Pterygoplichthys pardalis in Kerala,India

Invasion of armoured catfish, Pterygoplichthys spp., is a major threat to global aquatic biodiversity, and developing effective strategies for their control and eradication is both a concern and a research priority. A length-based population assessment of invasive Pterygoplichthys pardalis in southern India, a hotspot for endemic aquatic biodiversity, indicated that rapid growth, high growth performance index and continuous recruitment have aided their successful invasion. Increasing fishing pressure on the adults is not adequate for population management, and only targeting young individuals (<30 cm) will result in overexploitation and population collapse.     

Effects of Whaling on the Structure of the Southern Ocean Food Web: Insights on the “Krill Surplus” from Ecosystem Modelling

The aim of this study was to examine the ecological plausibility of the “krill surplus” hypothesis and the effects of whaling on the Southern Ocean food web using mass-balance ecosystem modelling. The depletion trajectory and unexploited biomass of each rorqual population in the Antarctic was reconstructed using yearly catch records and a set of species-specific surplus production models. The resulting estimates of the unexploited biomass of Antarctic rorquals were used to construct an Ecopath model of the Southern Ocean food web existing in 1900. The rorqual depletion trajectory was then used in an Ecosim scenario to drive rorqual biomasses and examine the “krill surplus” phenomenon and whaling effects on the food web in the years 1900–2008. An additional suite of Ecosim scenarios reflecting several hypothetical trends in Southern Ocean primary productivity were employed to examine the effect of bottom-up forcing on the documented krill biomass trend. The output of the Ecosim scenarios indicated that while the “krill surplus” hypothesis is a plausible explanation of the biomass trends observed in some penguin and pinniped species in the mid-20^th century, the excess krill biomass was most likely eliminated by a rapid decline in primary productivity in the years 1975–1995. Our findings suggest that changes in physical conditions in the Southern Ocean during this time period could have eliminated the ecological effects of rorqual depletion, although the mechanism responsible is currently unknown. Furthermore, a decline in iron bioavailability due to rorqual depletion may have contributed to the rapid decline in overall Southern Ocean productivity during the last quarter of the 20^th century. The results of this study underscore the need for further research on historical changes in the roles of top-down and bottom-up forcing in structuring the Southern Ocean food web.