Integrated Population Modeling of Black Bears in Minnesota: Implications for Monitoring and Management

Background

Wildlife populations are difficult to monitor directly because of costs and logistical challenges associated with collecting informative abundance data from live animals. By contrast, data on harvested individuals (e.g., age and sex) are often readily available. Increasingly, integrated population models are used for natural resource management because they synthesize various relevant data into a single analysis.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We investigated the performance of integrated population models applied to black bears (Ursus americanus) in Minnesota, USA. Models were constructed using sex-specific age-at-harvest matrices (1980–2008), data on hunting effort and natural food supplies (which affects hunting success), and statewide mark–recapture estimates of abundance (1991, 1997, 2002). We compared this approach to Downing reconstruction, a commonly used population monitoring method that utilizes only age-at-harvest data. We first conducted a large-scale simulation study, in which our integrated models provided more accurate estimates of population trends than did Downing reconstruction. Estimates of trends were robust to various forms of model misspecification, including incorrectly specified cub and yearling survival parameters, age-related reporting biases in harvest data, and unmodeled temporal variability in survival and harvest rates. When applied to actual data on Minnesota black bears, the model predicted that harvest rates were negatively correlated with food availability and positively correlated with hunting effort, consistent with independent telemetry data. With no direct data on fertility, the model also correctly predicted 2-point cycles in cub production. Model-derived estimates of abundance for the most recent years provided a reasonable match to an empirical population estimate obtained after modeling efforts were completed.

Conclusions/Significance

Integrated population modeling provided a reasonable framework for synthesizing age-at-harvest data, periodic large-scale abundance estimates, and measured covariates thought to affect harvest rates of black bears in Minnesota. Collection and analysis of these data appear to form the basis of a robust and viable population monitoring program.     

Non-Proliferation as an Active State: Conceptual and Practical Implications

We have recently shown that all kinds of non-proliferating cells, including quiescent, senescent, and terminally differentiated ones, can be mitotically reactivated by the sole removal of cell type-specific cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitors. Reactivation takes place irrespective of added growth factors, allowing otherwise quiescent or senescent cells to proliferate. These unexpected findings warrant a reappraisal of some key aspects of the cell cycle. Inhibitors do not only modulate kinase activity, but contribute to the decision to enter the cell cycle as much as cyclins themselves. Non-proliferating cells, even those destined never to reenter the cell cycle, continue to express functionally significant levels of preassembled cyclin-cdk complexes, making cell cycle-arrest a state that must be constantly maintained by active expression of cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitors (CKIs). In addition, we suggest that the novel findings can be exploited in human therapy to accelerate, promote, or induce cell proliferation, both in vitro and in vivo. They should prove advantageous in cell biotechnology, cell replacement therapy, and tissue repair, wherever cell proliferation constitutes a limiting factor.     

Spatial Homogeneity and Temporal Heterogeneity of Red Drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) Microsatellites: Effective Population Sizes and Management Implications

The red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) is one of a number of species that occupy estuarine waters as juveniles and migrate to open ocean waters as adults. This species has experienced dramatic declines in population numbers over the past 2 decades, which has prompted increasing fishery restriction. In addition, hatchery augmentation has been initiated by several states to increase the abundance of juveniles in local areas. In South Carolina hatchery-reared fish have made significant (20%) contributions to the juvenile population on very local scales. As hatchery-reared fish are typically produced by a small number of individuals, the genetic consequences of augmentation programs are of concern. In this article we assess genetic variation at 5 microsatellite loci in S. ocellatus. The data indicate little geographic differentiation among samples collected along the Atlantic Coast of the United States, but substantial differences among year classes taken from South Carolina. The gene frequency differences among year classes were used to estimate the effective population size (Nc) of S. ocellatus in South Carolina and suggested that Ne was less than 300 from 1990 to 1993 and increased to about 1000 in 1994 and 1995. Whether this increase reflects the effectiveness of management regulations or simply a random fluctuation in S. ocellatus populations is not clear. The data suggest that a limited number of individuals produce the bulk of a given year class and support the sweepstakes hypothesis. Given the small Ne and estimates of the contribution of hatchery-reared fish to the wild stock, it is suggested that programs have the potential to increase, rather than decrease; Ne in the wild.     

Interaction of Mycobacterium ulcerans with Mosquito Species: Implications for Transmission and Trophic Relationships

Mycobacterium ulcerans is the causative agent of Buruli ulcer, a severe necrotizing skin disease that causes significant morbidity in Africa and Australia. Person-to-person transmission of Buruli ulcer is rare. Throughout Africa and Australia infection is associated with residence near slow-moving or stagnant water bodies. Although M. ulcerans DNA has been detected in over 30 taxa of invertebrates, fish, water filtrate, and plant materials and one environmental isolate cultured from a water strider (Gerridae), the invertebrate taxa identified are not adapted to feed on humans, and the mode of transmission for Buruli ulcer remains an enigma. Recent epidemiological reports from Australia describing the presence of M. ulcerans DNA in adult mosquitoes have led to the hypothesis that mosquitoes play an important role in the transmission of M. ulcerans. In this study we have investigated the potential of mosquitoes to serve as biological or mechanical vectors or as environmental reservoirs for M. ulcerans. Here we show that Aedes aegypti, A. albopictus, Ochlerotatus triseriatus, and Culex restuans larvae readily ingest wild-type M. ulcerans, isogenic toxin-negative mutants, and Mycobacterium marinum isolates and remain infected throughout larval development. However, the infections are not carried over into the pupae or adult mosquitoes, suggesting an unlikely role for mosquitoes as biological vectors. By following M. ulcerans through a food chain consisting of primary (mosquito larvae), secondary (predatory mosquito larva from Toxorhynchites rutilus septentrionalis), and tertiary (Belostoma species) consumers, we have shown that M. ulcerans can be productively maintained in an aquatic food web.Infection with Mycobacterium ulcerans, the causative agent of Buruli ulcer (BU) disease, is associated with residence near stagnant and slow-moving water bodies in areas in which the disease is endemic (5, 36, 40, 45, 50). A plasmid-encoded macrolide toxin, mycolactone, is the primary virulence determinant of M. ulcerans (8, 41). Biting aquatic insects, such as several taxa in the Belostomatidae and Naucoridae families (Hemiptera), have been suggested as possible vectors of M. ulcerans in several laboratory experiments (16, 19, 20, 24, 31, 32); however, there is little empirical evidence from field studies to support the contention that these biting insects vector M. ulcerans to humans (2). In Melbourne, Australia, recent epidemiological evidence suggests that mosquitoes may serve as vectors in the transmission of BU disease (10, 11, 12, 34, 35). In this study, 957 pools consisting of over 11,000 mosquitoes of four different species were collected and tested by quantitative PCR (qPCR) for the presence of M. ulcerans DNA, and positive results were obtained from 48 of 957 pools tested (10). Of the 48 positive pools, 13 were positive for PCR directed against two insertion sequences (IS2404 and IS2606) as well as against sequence based on the ketoreductase domain of the mycolactone toxin genes. Because all of these target sequences are present multiple times in the genome, it was difficult to assign genome equivalents to these results. However, data from laboratory experiments suggested that 10 to 100 M. ulcerans isolates per mosquito were present in the positive pools. Epidemiological work also suggested a seasonal relationship between Buruli ulcer and mosquito-vectored diseases in Australia (12). These studies are extremely provocative and raise a number of questions for further work. What is the prevalence of M. ulcerans in other invertebrate taxa in the same environment? What is the infection rate in equal numbers of mosquitoes collected from areas in which the disease is not endemic? Is it possible to obtain physical evidence for the presence of M. ulcerans through microscopy or culture of mosquitoes in areas in which the disease is endemic, and, finally, what can we learn from laboratory studies concerning the interaction between mosquitoes and M. ulcerans?The recent work from Australia suggesting that M. ulcerans is spread by mosquitoes is particularly significant because adult mosquitoes are the most important group of insects in the spread of human disease. They may serve as biological vectors that provide a major environment for pathogen replication, as in malaria or yellow fever, or as mechanical vectors that carry organisms between hosts without serving as a site of replication (1, 4, 7, 9, 38). Larval mosquitoes are common in habitats associated with BU disease, most notably lentic or standing water habitats, and feed by filtering particles in the water using labral head fans (21). Members of some genera (i.e., Anopheles) aggregate at the air-water interface in microlayers near plant stems and algal mats (27, 28, 46), where they feed on microorganisms such as bacteria and algae (47). Because of their collecting-filtering feeding mode, there is potential for larvae to consume M. ulcerans and concentrate mycobacteria through their feeding activities (22, 23).In Ghana, the occurrence of M. ulcerans among invertebrate communities in lentic habitats has been documented from regions in Ga West and Ga East Districts in which the disease is endemic as well as those in which it is not endemic (2, 49) but not in geographically distinct areas in which the disease is not endemic such as the Volta region (49). M. ulcerans has been identified in a suite of environmental samples such as filtered water, biofilms, and algae as well as among a broad spectrum of invertebrate taxa, including both larval and adult mosquitoes (2, 11, 17, 49). However, the replication and trophic movement of M. ulcerans within these environmental samples and invertebrate communities have not been experimentally investigated. Conceptual models have been proposed that assume that the primary consumers of M. ulcerans (e.g., mosquito larvae, cladocerans, and chironomid larvae) may feed on bacteria and algae in biofilms, filter suspended matter from the water column, and then initiate the passage of M. ulcerans through an aquatic food web (2, 22, 31). This model predicts the movement of M. ulcerans through secondary and tertiary consumers and implies a complex trophic relationship in the ecology of M. ulcerans as well as an important role of aquatic invertebrates in the disease ecology of M. ulcerans.In the studies reported here, we have explored the role of mosquitoes as biological or mechanical vectors of M. ulcerans, as well as the potential of mosquito larvae to play a central role in the movement of M. ulcerans through an aquatic food web. In order to investigate the ability of mosquito larvae to ingest and maintain M. ulcerans within their digestive tract as well as to persist throughout the mosquito development cycle, we took advantage of the fact that mosquito larvae naturally feed upon bacteria. Results presented here show that strains of M. ulcerans from Africa and Australia, as well as Mycobacterium marinum, were maintained at high levels in the larval mosquito gut for 6 days. However, neither M. ulcerans nor M. marinum was detected in adult mosquitoes that were infected in the larval stage. These results suggest that mosquitoes are unlikely to serve as biological vectors of M. ulcerans.We further developed a model for following the passage of M. ulcerans through a series of consumers to determine whether M. ulcerans could be passed up a trophic chain from primary to tertiary consumers. In this model, we conducted similar experiments using four species of nonpredatory mosquito larvae, Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus), Aedes albopictus (Skuse), Ochlerotatus triseriatus (Theobald), and Culex restuans (Theobald), as primary consumers. These larvae were infected with isogenic wild-type (WT) and toxin-negative isolates of M. ulcerans and of M. marinum, the closest relative to M. ulcerans (13, 14, 51). We have shown that M. ulcerans in mosquito larvae survive passage through secondary and tertiary consumers, thus providing the first laboratory evidence that M. ulcerans has the potential to move between and be maintained within different species in an aquatic food web.     

Mosquito Population Regulation and Larval Source Management in Heterogeneous Environments

An important question for mosquito population dynamics, mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and vector control is how mosquito populations are regulated. Here we develop simple models with heterogeneity in egg laying patterns and in the responses of larval populations to crowding in aquatic habitats. We use the models to evaluate how such heterogeneity affects mosquito population regulation and the effects of larval source management (LSM). We revisit the notion of a carrying capacity and show how heterogeneity changes our understanding of density dependence and the outcome of LSM. Crowding in and productivity of aquatic habitats is highly uneven unless egg-laying distributions are fine-tuned to match the distribution of habitats’ carrying capacities. LSM reduces mosquito population density linearly with coverage if adult mosquitoes avoid laying eggs in treated habitats, but quadratically if eggs are laid in treated habitats and the effort is therefore wasted (i.e., treating 50% of habitat reduces mosquito density by approximately 75%). Unsurprisingly, targeting (i.e. treating a subset of the most productive pools) gives much larger reductions for similar coverage, but with poor targeting, increasing coverage could increase adult mosquito population densities if eggs are laid in higher capacity habitats. Our analysis suggests that, in some contexts, LSM models that accounts for heterogeneity in production of adult mosquitoes provide theoretical support for pursuing mosquito-borne disease prevention through strategic and repeated application of modern larvicides.     

Suitability Modeling of Lake Sturgeon Habitat in Five Northern Lake Michigan Tributaries: Implications for Population Rehabilitation

The availability of lotic spawning, staging, and nursery habitats is considered a major factor limiting the recovery of Lake sturgeon ( Acipenser fulvescens ) in Lake Michigan. Despite efforts to better understand the population biology and habitat use of remnant Lake sturgeon stocks, little information exists on the quantity, quality, and spatial distribution of habitats for riverine life stages. We applied georeferenced habitat information on substrate, water depth, and stream gradient to a Lake sturgeon habitat suitability index in a geographic information system to produce spatially explicit models of life stage–specific habitat characteristics in the Menominee River, Michigan–Wisconsin; the Peshtigo, Oconto, and lower Fox rivers, Wisconsin; and the Manistique River, Michigan. High-quality Lake sturgeon spawning habitat associated with coarse substrates (≥2.1 mm) and moderate- to high-stream gradients (≥0.6 m/km) comprised 1–6% of the available habitat in each system. Staging habitat characterized by water depths greater that 2 m located near potential spawning habitat comprised an additional 17–41%. However, access to a majority of these habitat types (range 30–100%) by Lake sturgeon from Lake Michigan is currently impeded by dams. High-quality juvenile Lake sturgeon habitat associated with finer substrates, lower stream gradients, and a broad range of water depths (i.e., 0.5–8 m) was relatively ubiquitous throughout each system and comprised 69–100% of the available habitat. Our study suggests that efforts to rehabilitate Lake sturgeon populations should consider providing fish passage and creating supplemental spawning habitat to increase reproductive and recruitment potential.     

Force Spectrum Microscopy Using Mitochondrial Fluctuations of Control and ATP-Depleted Cells

A single-cell assay of active and passive intracellular mechanical properties of mammalian cells could give significant insight into cellular processes. Force spectrum microscopy (FSM) is one such technique, which combines the spontaneous motion of probe particles and the mechanical properties of the cytoskeleton measured by active microrheology using optical tweezers to determine the force spectrum of the cytoskeleton. A simpler and noninvasive method to perform FSM would be very useful, enabling its widespread adoption. Here, we develop an alternative method of FSM using measurement of the fluctuating motion of mitochondria. Mitochondria of the C3H-10T1/2 cell line were labeled and tracked using confocal microscopy. Mitochondrial probes were selected based on morphological characteristics, and their mean-square displacement, creep compliance, and distributions of directional change were measured. We found that the creep compliance of mitochondria resembles that of particles in viscoelastic media. However, comparisons of creep compliance between controls and cells treated with pharmacological agents showed that perturbations to the actomysoin network had surprisingly small effects on mitochondrial fluctuations, whereas microtubule disruption and ATP depletion led to a significantly decreased creep compliance. We used properties of the distribution of directional change to identify a regime of thermally dominated fluctuations in ATP-depleted cells, allowing us to estimate the viscoelastic parameters for a range of timescales. We then determined the force spectrum by combining these viscoelastic properties with measurements of spontaneous fluctuations tracked in control cells. Comparisons with previous measurements made using FSM revealed an excellent match.     

The Role of Climatic and Density Dependent Factors in Shaping Mosquito Population Dynamics: The Case of Culex pipiens in Northwestern Italy

Culex pipiens mosquito is a species widely spread across Europe and represents a competent vector for many arboviruses such as West Nile virus (WNV), which has been recently circulating in many European countries, causing hundreds of human cases. In order to identify the main determinants of the high heterogeneity in Cx. pipiens abundance observed in Piedmont region (Northwestern Italy) among different seasons, we developed a density-dependent stochastic model that takes explicitly into account the role played by temperature, which affects both developmental and mortality rates of different life stages. The model was calibrated with a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach exploring the likelihood of recorded capture data gathered in the study area from 2000 to 2011; in this way, we disentangled the role played by different seasonal eco-climatic factors in shaping the vector abundance. Illustrative simulations have been performed to forecast likely changes if temperature or density–dependent inputs would change. Our analysis suggests that inter-seasonal differences in the mosquito dynamics are largely driven by different temporal patterns of temperature and seasonal-specific larval carrying capacities. Specifically, high temperatures during early spring hasten the onset of the breeding season and increase population abundance in that period, while, high temperatures during the summer can decrease population size by increasing adult mortality. Higher densities of adult mosquitoes are associated with higher larval carrying capacities, which are positively correlated with spring precipitations. Finally, an increase in larval carrying capacity is expected to proportionally increase adult mosquito abundance.     

Nematode Population Fluctuations during Decomposition of Specific Organic Amendments

Population densities of nematodes in field soil without plants were monitored for 10 months following application of organic amendments to pots in a greenhouse. The four treatments consisted of three different kinds of organic amendments: homogeneous crop residues of maize (Zea mays, C:N = 48.0:1), Texas panicum (Panicum texanum, C:N = 32.9:1), or velvetbean (Mucuna pruriens, C:N = 18.6:1), plus a control without any amendment. Plant-parasitic nematodes declined in all treatments due to absence of a food source. Bacterivore numbers increased following amendment application and remained greater than initial population levels until 4 months after application. Fungivore numbers were higher than initial levels until 6 months after amendment application and did not decline below the initial numbers during the course of the experiment. On several sampling dates, the bacterivorous genera Cervidellus and Eucephalobus were most abundant in pots with maize residues. Among the fungivores, Aphelenchoides numbers early in the experiment were greatest in pots amended with velvetbean, whereas numbers of Aphelenchus, Nothotylenchus, and Tylenchidae (mainly Filenchus) were greatest during the latter half of the experiment following the maize amendment. Omnivorous nematodes, particularly Eudorylaimus, showed two peaks in abundance during the course of the experiment. Results provided some evidence that population levels of some genera of bacterivores and fungivores may be affected by specific organic amendments.     

The Costs and Benefits of Employing an Adult with Autism Spectrum Disorder: A Systematic Review

Background

Despite an ambition from adults with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) to be employed, there are limited opportunities for competitive employment for this group. Employment is not only an entitlement enjoyed by others in society, but employing adults with ASD also has economic benefits by decreasing lost productivity and resource costs for this group. Few studies have explored the cost-benefit ratio for employing adults with ASD and even fewer have taken the viewpoint of the employer, particularly applying this situation to ASD. Until such study occurs, employers may continue to be reluctant to employ adults from this group.

Objective

This review aimed to examine the costs, benefits and the cost-benefit ratio of employing adults with ASD, from a societal perspective and from the perspective of employers.

Methods

Eight databases were searched for scientific studies within defined inclusion criteria. These databases included CINAHL Plus, Cochrane Library, Emerald, Ovid Medline, ProQuest, PsycINFO, Scopus and Web of Science.

Results and Conclusion

Enhancing the opportunities for adults with ASD to join the workforce is beneficial from a societal perspective, not only from an inclusiveness viewpoint, but also from a strict economic standpoint. Providing supported employment services for adults with ASD does not only cut the cost compared with providing standard care, it also results in better outcomes for adults with ASD. Despite the fact that ASD was the most expensive group to provide vocational rehabilitation services for, adults with ASD have a strong chance of becoming employed once appropriate measures are in place. Hence, rehabilitation services could be considered as a worthwhile investment. The current systematic review uncovered the fact that very few studies have examined the benefits, the costs and the cost-benefit ratio of employing an adult with ASD from the perspective of employers indicating a need for this topic to be further explored.     

云龙县灵长类种群时空动态变化

灵长类动物是世界上较濒危的动物类群之一,掌握灵长类的分布及其数量的动态变化,为保护行动的有效开展提供了必要的基础资料。通过改良的社区访问调查,首次对滇西北云龙县境内集中分布的6种灵长类动物(黑白仰鼻猴Rhinopithecus bieti、菲氏叶猴Presbytis phayrei、红面短尾猴Macaca arctoides、普通猕猴M.mulatta、熊猴M.assamensis和藏猕猴M.thibetana)从20世纪50年代至今的分布和数量进行了调查,共访查了11个乡镇240个自然村,获得968条有效信息。结果表明,云龙县灵长类基本呈斑块状、非连续性分布,其生境被澜沧江、沘江等河流和村落、交通网络分割。从20世纪50年代至今,6种灵长类共消失了62个种群约3 720只个体,种群数量下降率为60%~90%。综合分析云龙县各灵长类物种消失的时间、空间格局,发现1980—1990年代是灵长类动物种群消失最多且最快的时期,而各乡镇灵长类物种的消失斑块数与当地人口增长率呈显著正相关,人类大面积砍伐森林和捕猎导致了云龙县灵长类种群的快速消失。生境保护,尤其是对现存成熟森林的保护,将对云龙县现有灵长类动物的保护起到决定性的作用。     

Ichnotaxonomic Review of Large Ornithopod Dinosaur Tracks: Temporal and Geographic Implications

BackgroundLarge ornithopod tracks are known from the Upper Jurassic to the uppermost Cretaceous rocks of all continents but Antarctica. They include the tracks historically called Iguanodon footprints, iguanodontid footprints, hadrosaur/hadrosaurid footprints, and other large ornithopod tracks that have been used to define ichnotaxa. More than 40 ichnospecies based on large ornithopod tracks have been defined, but the validity of many of them is questionable.Conclusions/SignificanceThe monospecific ichnogenus Iguanodontipus (I. burreyi) is characterized by a small, rounded heel and elongate, narrow digit impressions. Its distribution is limited to the Berriasian-Valanginian of Europe. Caririchnium consists of four ichnospecies (C. magnificum [type ichnospecies], C. kortmeyeri, C. billsarjeanti and C. lotus) with a large, rounded heel and short, wide digit impressions. This ichnogenus ranges from the Berriasian-Hauterivian to the Aptian-Albian of South America, North America, Asia and Europe. Finally, Hadrosauropodus (three ichnospecies: H. langstoni [type ichnospecies], H. leonardii and H. kyoungsookimi) shows a large, bilobed heel and short, wide digit impressions. It is known from the Aptian-Albian to the Maastrichtian of North America, Asia and Europe. The ichnofamily Iguanodontipodidae includes large iguanodontian tracks characterized mainly by mesaxonic, tridactyl and subsymmetrical pes tracks that are as wide as (or wider than) long and have one pad impression in each digit and one in the heel. Its distribution is confidently limited to the Cretaceous of Europe, Asia, North America and South America.     

成体干细胞中的SP细胞群

成体干细胞研究中,SP细胞是近年来在多种不同种属的哺乳动物组织中被发现的细胞群体,是另一类主要在骨髓和肌肉中发现的多潜能干细胞,具有向不同于本身起源组织的多种细胞类型分化的能力。它们数目较少,且分布、分化、表面标志和功能等都不是十分清楚。综述了SP细胞的命名,分离获取方法,多种组织细胞中SP细胞群的表面标志、分化特征。此外,SP细胞表型的基因调控,SP细胞在干细胞移植尤其是在未来临床治疗方面的应用。最后,对SP细胞的研究进行了展望。