Recommendations for photo‐identification methods used in capture‐recapture models with cetaceans

Capture‐recapture methods are frequently employed to estimate abundance of cetaceans using photographic techniques and a variety of statistical models. However, there are many unresolved issues regarding the selection and manipulation of images that can potentially impose bias on resulting estimates. To examine the potential impact of these issues we circulated a test data set of dorsal fin images from bottlenose dolphins to several independent research groups. Photo‐identification methods were generally similar, but the selection, scoring, and matching of images varied greatly amongst groups. Based on these results we make the following recommendations. Researchers should: (1) determine the degree of marking, or level of distinctiveness, and use images of sufficient quality to recognize animals of that level of distinctiveness; (2) ensure that markings are sufficiently distinct to eliminate the potential for “twins” to occur; (3) stratify data sets by distinctiveness and generate a series of abundance estimates to investigate the influence of including animals of varying degrees of markings; and (4) strive to examine and incorporate variability among analysts into capture‐recapture estimation. In this paper we summarize these potential sources of bias and provide recommendations for best practices for using natural markings in a capture‐recapture framework.     

The Petersen–Lincoln Estimator and its Extension to Estimate the Size of a Shared Population

The Petersen–Lincoln estimator has been used to estimate the size of a population in a single mark release experiment. However, the estimator is not valid when the capture sample and recapture sample are not independent. We provide an intuitive interpretation for “independence” between samples based on 2 × 2 categorical data formed by capture/non‐capture in each of the two samples. From the interpretation, we review a general measure of “dependence” and quantify the correlation bias of the Petersen–Lincoln estimator when two types of dependences (local list dependence and heterogeneity of capture probability) exist. An important implication in the census undercount problem is that instead of using a post enumeration sample to assess the undercount of a census, one should conduct a prior enumeration sample to avoid correlation bias. We extend the Petersen–Lincoln method to the case of two populations. This new estimator of the size of the shared population is proposed and its variance is derived. We discuss a special case where the correlation bias of the proposed estimator due to dependence between samples vanishes. The proposed method is applied to a study of the relapse rate of illicit drug use in Taiwan. (© 2008 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

An Approximate Confidence Interval for Survival Probability Based on Jackson's Method for the Analysis of Mark‐recapture Data

A common problem in mark‐recapture studies is that the effects of mortality and emigration are confounded. Jackson's method is a simple and elegant way to separate these effects. This paper describes an approximate confidence interval for survival probability based on Jackson's method. Some simulation results are presented suggesting that the confidence interval works well in situations where the bias of Jackson's method is small.     

Computing an NPMLE for a mixing distribution in two closed heterogeneous population size models

Binomial and geometric mixtures can be used to model data gathered in capture-recapture surveys of animal populations, removal surveys of harvest populations, registrations of disease populations, ecological species census, and so on. To compute a nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator for the mixing distribution of heterogeneous capture probabilities, we consider a conditional approach and use a reliable and fast integrative procedure which combines the EM algorithm to increase the likelihood and the vertex-exchange method to update the number of support points. A convergent Newtonian algorithm is used in the M-step of the EM algorithm.     

Using Mixtures to Model Heterogeneity in Ecological Capture‐Recapture Studies

Modelling heterogeneity of capture is an important problem in estimating animal abundance from capturerecapture data, with underestimation of abundance occurring if different animals have intrinsically high or low capture probabilities. Mixture models are useful in many cases to model the heterogeneity. We summarise mixture model results for closed populations, using a skink data set for illustration. New mixture models for heterogeneous open populations are discussed, and a closed population model is shown to have new and potentially effective applications in community analysis. (© 2008 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

A New Method for Estimating Growth Transition Matrices

Summary The vast majority of population models work using age or stage not length but there are many cases where animals cannot be aged sensibly or accurately. For these cases length‐based models form the logical alternative but there has been little work done to develop and compare different methods of estimating growth transition matrices to be used in such models. This article demonstrates how a consistent Bayesian framework for estimating growth parameters and a novel method for constructing length transition matrices accounts for variation in growth in a clear and consistent manner and avoids potential subjective choices required using more established methods. The inclusion of the resultant growth uncertainty in population assessment models and the potential impact on management decisions is also addressed.     

Photographic identification of individuals of a free‐ranging,small terrestrial vertebrate

Recognition of individuals within an animal population is central to a range of estimates about population structure and dynamics. However, traditional methods of distinguishing individuals, by some form of physical marking, often rely on capture and handling which may affect aspects of normal behavior. Photographic identification has been used as a less‐invasive alternative, but limitations in both manual and computer‐automated recognition of individuals are particularly problematic for smaller taxa (<500 g). In this study, we explored the use of photographic identification for individuals of a free‐ranging, small terrestrial reptile using (a) independent observers, and (b) automated matching with the Interactive Individual Identification System (I³S Pattern) computer algorithm. We tested the technique on individuals of an Australian skink in the Egernia group, Slater's skink Liopholis slateri, whose natural history and varied scale markings make it a potentially suitable candidate for photo‐identification. From ‘photographic captures’ of skink head profiles, we designed a multi‐choice key based on alternate character states and tested the abilities of observers — with or without experience in wildlife survey — to identify individuals using categorized test photos. We also used the I³S Pattern algorithm to match the same set of test photos against a database of 30 individuals. Experienced observers identified a significantly higher proportion of photos correctly (74%) than those with no experience (63%) while the I³S software correctly matched 67% as the first ranked match and 83% of images in the top five ranks. This study is one of the first to investigate photo identification with a free‐ranging small vertebrate. The method demonstrated here has the potential to be applied to the developing field of camera‐traps for wildlife survey and thus a wide range of survey and monitoring applications.     

Lincoln estimates of mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) abundance in North America

Estimates of range‐wide abundance, harvest, and harvest rate are fundamental for sound inferences about the role of exploitation in the dynamics of free‐ranging wildlife populations, but reliability of existing survey methods for abundance estimation is rarely assessed using alternative approaches. North American mallard populations have been surveyed each spring since 1955 using internationally coordinated aerial surveys, but population size can also be estimated with Lincoln's method using banding and harvest data. We estimated late summer population size of adult and juvenile male and female mallards in western, midcontinent, and eastern North America using Lincoln's method of dividing (i) total estimated harvest, , by estimated harvest rate, , calculated as (ii) direct band recovery rate, , divided by the (iii) band reporting rate, . Our goal was to compare estimates based on Lincoln's method with traditional estimates based on aerial surveys. Lincoln estimates of adult males and females alive in the period June–September were 4.0 (range: 2.5–5.9), 1.8 (range: 0.6–3.0), and 1.8 (range: 1.3–2.7) times larger than respective aerial survey estimates for the western, midcontinent, and eastern mallard populations, and the two population estimates were only modestly correlated with each other (western: r = 0.70, 1993–2011; midcontinent: r = 0.54, 1961–2011; eastern: r = 0.50, 1993–2011). Higher Lincoln estimates are predictable given that the geographic scope of inference from Lincoln estimates is the entire population range, whereas sampling frames for aerial surveys are incomplete. Although each estimation method has a number of important potential biases, our review suggests that underestimation of total population size by aerial surveys is the most likely explanation. In addition to providing measures of total abundance, Lincoln's method provides estimates of fecundity and population sex ratio and could be used in integrated population models to provide greater insights about population dynamics and management of North American mallards and most other harvested species.     

Using time‐of‐detection to evaluate detectability assumptions in temporally replicated aural count indices: an example with Ring‐necked Pheasants

ABSTRACT The validity of treating counts as indices to abundance is based on the assumption that the expected detection probability, E(p), is constant over time or comparison groups or, more realistically, that variation in p is small relative to variation in population size that investigators seek to detect. Unfortunately, reliable estimates of E(p) and var(p) are lacking for most index methods. As a case study, we applied the time‐of‐detection method to temporally replicated (within season) aural counts of crowing male Ring‐necked Pheasants (Phasianus colchicus) at 18 sites in southern Minnesota in 2007 to evaluate the detectability assumptions. More specifically, we used the time‐of‐detection method to estimate E(p) and var(p), and then used these estimates in a Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate bias‐variance tradeoffs associated with adjusting count indices for imperfect detection. The estimated mean detection probability in our case study was 0.533 (SE = 0.030) and estimated spatial variation in E(p) was 0.081 (95% CI: 0.057–0.126). On average, both adjusted (for) and unadjusted counts of crowing males qualitatively described the simulated relationship between pheasant abundance and grassland abundance, but the bias‐variance tradeoff was smaller for adjusted counts (MSE = 0.003 vs. 0.045, respectively). Our case study supports the general recommendation to use, whenever feasible, formal population‐estimation procedures (e.g., mark‐recapture, distance sampling, double sampling) to account for imperfect detection. However, we caution that interpreting estimates of absolute abundance can be complicated, even if formal estimation methods are used. For example, the time‐of‐detection method was useful for evaluating detectability assumptions in our case study and the method could be used to adjust aural count indices for imperfect detection. Conversely, using the time‐of‐detection method to estimate absolute abundances in our case study was problematic because the biological populations and sampling coverage could not be clearly delineated. These estimation and inference challenges may also be important in other avian surveys that involve mobile species (whose home ranges may overlap several sampling sites), temporally replicated counts, and inexact sampling coverage.     

How has the remnant population of the threatened frog Leiopelma pakeka (Anura: Leiopelmatidae) fared on Maud Island,New Zealand,over the past 25 years?

Despite widespread global reports of declining amphibian populations, supporting long‐term census data are few, limiting opportunities to study changes in numbers and survival over time. However, in New Zealand, for the past 25 years (1983–2008), we studied Leiopelma pakeka, a threatened, terrestrial frog that inhabits rocky boulder banks under forest on Maud Island. Using night sampling at least annually on two 12 × 12 m plots, we had 5390 captures of 1000+ individuals, 327 on one plot (grid 1), 751 on the other (grid 2). The mean (±SE) number of frogs found per night was 11.3 (±0.6) on grid 1 and 25.6 (±1.4) on grid 2. We used capture‐recapture models to estimate population size, proportion of animals remaining beneath the surface and survival rate. The mean (±SE) population estimate was 131 (±14.7) frogs on grid 1 and 367 (±38.7) on grid 2. Over 25 years the estimated population increased on grid 1 and fluctuated on grid 2. Some frogs were captured on most sampling visits, others less often, evidently failing to emerge from cover each visit. Using a combination of open and closed population models, we estimated the mean (±SE) proportion remaining underground was 0.63 (±0.12) on grid 1 and 0.53 (±0.07) on grid 2. Our research represents one of the longest‐run population studies of any frog, and we recorded significant longevity, two males reaching 35+ and 37+ years, a female 34+ years. No significant differences occurred between mean annual survival rates of apparent females and males, or between the two sites. The number of toes clipped for individual identification had little influence on the return rate, once the effect of time of first capture was removed.     

Survival estimates for the Australian sea lion: Negative correlation of sea surface temperature with cohort survival to weaning

The Australian sea lion (Neophoca cinerea) population at Seal Bay Conservation Park, South Australia, is estimated to be declining at a rate of 1.14% per breeding season. To better understand the potential causes of this decline, survival rates were examined to 14 yr of age for eight cohorts marked as pups (aged 0.17 yr) between 1991 and 2002. Apparent yearly survival rates (Φ) varied by cohort for pups from marking to weaning at 1.5 yr (Φ= 0.30–0.67). Postweaning juvenile survival (1.5–3 yr) was 0.89 and survival from 3 to 14 yr was constant (Φ female:male = 0.96:0.89). Φ of pup cohorts was negatively correlated to local sea surface temperature where the sea lions forage (SST) and was especially low for cohort 7 in 2000 (0.30). It is possible that periods of unusually warm oceanographic conditions may be limiting primary production and inhibiting maternal provisioning to pups. Pup survival to weaning is relatively low compared to other otariid species, is likely to limit recruitment, and may be contributing to the decline in pup abundance observed in the colony.     

Vertical and horizontal movements of Fuller's rose weevil (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) in Australian citrus groves

Fuller's rose weevil (FRW; Asynonychus cervinus (Boheman)) is a pest of quarantine concern in many Asian markets for Australian citrus. We investigated vertical (tree climbing) and horizontal movements (inter‐tree movements) of FRW adults in a citrus orchard during 2009–2011 with mark‐recapture experiments. Trunk traps were used to intercept tree‐climbing adults. The results showed that the majority of the adults released on the foliage stayed in the canopy, however considerable numbers did drop and some dropped multiple times. The rate of drops appeared to be fixed, independent of how many times the weevils had dropped before. Inter‐tree movements of adults in the canopy occurred mainly within rows, probably because of touching foliage between within‐row neighboring trees. Movement directions on the ground were more random, when reliance on touching foliage was not necessary. According to fitted dispersal equations, the average dispersal distance was 38 m for weevils released on foliage and 127 m for those released on the ground. Trunk banding with chemicals is an important control tactic for FRW, and based on our results, chemicals should be applied at a high enough rate (or in a wide enough band) to ensure the weevils are killed by a single crossing. For maximum reductions of FRW populations in citrus, control actions should be applied not only to infested blocks but also to neighboring blocks in the orchard.     

How common is common? Rapidly assessing population size and structure of the frog Mantidactylus betsileanus at a site in east‐central Madagascar

Population‐level data are urgently needed for amphibians in light of the ongoing amphibian extinction crisis. Studies focused on population dynamics are not only important for rare species but also for common species which shape ecosystems to a greater degree than those that are rare. Some of the greatest global amphibian species diversity is found in Madagascar, yet there are few studies on the ecology of frog species on the island. We carried out a mark‐recapture study on the widespread frog Mantidactylus betsileanus (Mantellidae: Mantellinae: Mantidactylus) at two adjacent rainforest sites in east‐central Madagascar to assess its population size and structure. To do so, we validated and implemented an individual identification protocol using photographs of the ventral patterns of frogs and identified individuals with photographic‐matching software. Using this rapid, non‐invasive survey method, we were able to estimate a density of 26 and 28 frogs per 100 m² at each of the two sites sampled. Our results show the rainforests near the village of Andasibe, Madagascar support remarkably high amphibian abundance, helping illustrate the significant ecological role of frogs in this ecosystem. Further, individual frog markings allowed us to develop more precise estimates than traditional survey methods. This study provides a blueprint to augment existing population studies or develop new monitoring programs in Madagascar and beyond.     

Synchrony in capture dates suggests cryptic social organization in sea snakes (Emydocephalus annulatus,Hydrophiidae)

Abstract Complex sociality is widespread in lizards, but the difficulties of directly observing social interactions in free‐ranging snakes have precluded such studies for most snake species. However, a type of data already available from mark‐recapture studies (dates of capture and recapture of individually marked animals) can reveal social substructure within snake populations. If individuals associate with each other in social groups, we expect synchrony in the dates of capture and recapture of those animals. A field study of turtle‐headed sea snakes (Emydocephalus annulatus) in New Caledonia reveals exactly this phenomenon. For example, animals that were captured on the same day in one year often were recaptured on the same day the following year. Analysis rejects non‐social interpretations of these data (such as spatial‐temporal confounding in sampling, intrapopulation heterogeneity in cues for activity), suggesting instead that many individual sea snakes belong to ‘social’ groups that consistently move about together. The phenomenon of capture synchrony during mark‐recapture studies can provide new insights into the occurrence and correlates of cryptic social aggregations.     

Genotyping validates photo‐identification by the head scale pattern in a large population of the European adder (Vipera berus)

Capture‐mark‐recapture procedures are a basic tool in population studies and require that individual animals are correctly identified throughout their lifetime. A method that has become more and more popular uses photographic records of natural markings, such as pigmentation pattern and scalation configuration. As with any other marking tool, the validity of the photographic identification technique should be evaluated thoroughly. Here, we report on a large‐scale double‐marking study in which European adders (Vipera berus) were identified by both microsatellite genetic markers and by the pattern of head scalation. Samples that were successfully genotyped for all nine loci yielded 624 unique genotypes, which matched on a one‐to‐one basis with the individual assignments based on the head scalation pattern. Thus, adders considered as different individuals by their genotypes were also identified as different individuals by their head scalation pattern, and vice versa. Overall, variation in the numbers, shape, and arrangement of the head scales enabled us to distinguish among 3200+ photographed individual snakes. Adders that were repeatedly sequenced genetically over intervals of 2–3 years showed no indication whatsoever for a change in the head scale pattern. Photographic records of 900+ adders that were recaptured over periods of up to 12 years showed a very detailed and precise match of the head scale characteristics. These natural marks are thus robust over time and do not change during an individual's lifetime. With very low frequency (0.3%), we detected small changes in scalation that were readily discernible and could be attributed to physical injury or infection. Our study provides a conclusive validation for the use of photo‐identification by head scale patterns in the European adder.     

Parallel declines in survival of adult Northern Fulmars Fulmarus glacialis at colonies in Scotland and Ireland

Assessing broad‐scale changes in seabird populations across the North Atlantic requires an integration of available datasets to understand the spatial extent of potential drivers and demographic change. Here, we compared survival of Northern Fulmars Fulmarus glacialis from a Scottish and an Irish colony from 1974 to 2009. Despite lower recapture probabilities of monel‐ringed Irish birds compared with colour‐ringed Scottish birds, survival probability decreased at both colonies. The extent to which the decline in survival is related to density‐dependent processes or other external drivers remains uncertain, but our results suggest that these changes in survival are possibly indicative of larger‐scale processes and are not confined to local colony dynamics.     

Population ecology of the velvet gecko,Oedura lesueurii in south eastern Australia: Implications for the persistence of an endangered snake

Abstract Ecological specialization, such as major dependence upon a single‐prey species, can render a predator taxon vulnerable to extinction. In such cases, understanding the population dynamics of that prey type is important for conserving the predator that relies upon it. In eastern Australia, the endangered broad‐headed snake Hoplocephalus bungaroides feeds largely on velvet geckos (Oedura lesueurii). We studied growth, longevity and reproduction in a population of velvet geckos in Morton National Park in south‐eastern Australia. We marked 458 individual geckos over a 3‐year period (1992–1995) and made yearly visits to field sites from 1995–2006 to recapture marked individuals. Female geckos grew larger than males, and produced their first clutch at age 4 years. Males can mature at 2 years, but male–male combat for females probably forces males to delay reproduction until age 3 years. Females lay a single clutch of two eggs in communal nests in November, and up to 22 females deposited eggs in a single nest. Egg hatching success was high (100%), and juveniles had high survival (76%) during their first 6 months of life. Velvet geckos are long‐lived, and the mean age of marked animals recaptured after 1995 was 6.1 years (males) and 8.4 years (females). Older females (7.5–9.5 years) were all gravid when last recaptured. Like other temperate‐climate gekkonids, O. lesueurii has a ‘slow’ life history, and population viability could be threatened by any factors that increase egg or adult mortality. Two such factors – the removal of ‘bush rocks’ for urban gardens, and the overgrowth of rock outcrops by vegetation – could render small gecko populations vulnerable to extinction. In turn, the reliance of predatory broad‐headed snakes on this slow‐growing lizard species may increase its vulnerability to extinction.