甘肃鼠兔幼子生长的初步研究

根据3 窝14只甘肃鼠兔幼子56 天的生长发育资料初步分析了甘肃鼠兔的生长发育规律。依据逻辑斯蒂曲线的拐点,甘肃鼠兔的体重生长可划分为加速增长相（0～0.5日龄）和减速增长相（20.5日龄以后）。按照瞬时生长率曲线的拐点,体重增长过程可分为3个时期,即缓慢生长期（0～6.5 日龄）、快速生长期（6.5～34.5 日龄）和渐进生长期（34.5 日龄以后）。文章对使用逻辑斯蒂方程和其它“S”形曲线描述动物生长过程存在的一些问题进行了讨论,认为：如果只用1条“S”形曲线描述动物的整个生长过程,就有可能会因为成年期动物生长规律的变化而破坏模型参数的生物学意义,同时引起模型拟合精度的降低。为克服这一问题,作者建议：在使用“S”形曲线拟合动物生长模型时,生长过程的资料最好不要覆盖体重波动较大的成年阶段。     

逻辑斯谛曲线拟合的一种数值方法

1、引言逻辑斯谛方程(Logistic equation)是研究有限空间内种群增长规律的重要工具之一,这是由荷兰生物数学家verhulst于1838年首先提出来的。迄今为止,人们利用逻辑斯谛方程处理实验数据已经提出了各种曲线拟合方法,其中比较曲型的有三点法,平均     

浅评逻辑斯蒂方程

一、一个重要而被滥加引用的方程1838年Verhulst提出的逻辑斯蒂方程,被人们广泛地引用。不仅在自然科学中,甚至在社会科学中亦如此。Deevey认为这种增长型可能是最普遍的,在生态学上,由于逻辑斯蒂方程与因种群密度制约因素而形成的负反馈机制有联系,因而有人说,逻辑斯蒂方程是种群生态学中的核心理论之一,可见,逻辑斯蒂方程处于十分重要地位。(1)利用逻辑斯蒂方程表征种群数量动态:著名的经典实验有Pearl(1927)的果蝇;chapman(1931)的拟谷盗;Gause(1934)     

比较逻辑斯蒂与地理加权逻辑斯蒂回归模型在福建林火发生的适用性

林火预测预报是科学有效进行林火管理的前提,是林业管理部门和科研工作者的广泛关注的领域。逻辑斯蒂回归(Logistic Regression,LR)是目前国内外广泛应用于森林火灾预测的模型方法,然而近年来有学者发现该方法没有充分考虑林火影响因子的空间相关性和异质性,从而导致模型拟合结果偏差。地理加权逻辑斯蒂回归(Geographically weighted logistic regression,GWR)模型考虑到了模型变量之间的空间相关性,有效提高的模型的拟合能力。为探讨GWLR模型在福建林火预测上的适用性,本研究应用LR和GWLR两种方法分别建立福建省森林火灾与气象因子的预测模型,通过模型拟合能力对比,判断在GWLR的适用性。研究以2000—2005年福建地区森林火灾卫星火点数据和每日气象因子为基础,将全样本分为60%的建模数据和40%的校验数据,并重复5次,建立5个样本组。选择在5个样本组中3个及以上表现显著的变量进入最终模型。研究结果表明GWLR在模型拟合度、模型残差、空间自相关性以及预测准确率等方面均优于LR模型,说明充分考虑模型变量的空间异质性有助于提高模型的预测精度,同时也验证了GWLR在福建地区林火预测上的适应性。此外,模型参数结果显示,"日最高地表气温"、"日最低地表气温"、"日平均风速"、"24小时降水量"、"日最高本站气压"、"日照时数"、"日最高气温"和"日最小相对湿度"8个因子对福建省林火发生有显著影响,研究结论为福建地区林火预测预报提供了新的方法。     

逻辑斯谛增长导致的复杂种群动态及其实验验证

教科书通常用“S”型曲线表示逻辑斯谛增长模型导致的种群动态,事实上,这一模型可以产生包括稳定平衡、周期性振荡、混沌等多种多样的种群动态模式。介绍了如何用Kicker图示的方法分析逻辑斯谛增长可能导致的种群动态模式。同时介绍了相关的实验研究案例,这些实验工作大都是以生活史周期较短的昆虫为材料在相对简单的实验室环境中完成的。     

介绍两种逻辑曲线拟合的方法

凡是具有峰形曲线增长的生物种群,大体上可归纳为前峰形、中峰形和后峰形,完全像逻辑斯蒂曲线增长的不多。因而,采用逻辑斯蒂曲线拟合的方法拟合峰形曲线就有些不太理想。本文介绍两种拟合峰形曲线较理想的方法,一种是累加生成拟合,另一种是灰色逻辑斯蒂曲线拟合。第一种方法是通过一次累加生成弱化原始数据中的随机性和波动性,以适应于逻辑曲线的拟合。第二种是采用灰色系统理论的方法,采用     

透明度胁迫对菹草(Potamogeton crispus)生长的定量影响及其生长动力学模型

在实验室研究了不同水体透明度对沉水植物菹草生长的影响,结果表明,在实验条件下,当水体透明度低于12cm时,菹草由于水下光照不足而无法存活;透明度为15cm时菹草的生物量明显低于透明度为70cm(对照)、35cm和20cm 3种情况下的生物量,表明在透明度为15cm时,菹草的生长受到了明显的抑制.实验期间,菹草生物量变化的回归分析表明,不同透明度下菹草的生长均符合逻辑斯谛曲线.采用逻辑斯谛方程描述菹草的生长规律,结合实验结果,确定不同水体透明度下菹草的生长参数,结果显示:水体透明度对菹草生长的内禀增长率rm影响较大,而对菹草生长的环境容纳量k无明显影响.综合考虑水体透明度对菹草生长的影响,建立考虑水深和透明度因素的菹草生长动力学模型,该模型可预测出在外部水环境因素作用下菹草的动态生长过程.     

甘肃莲花山血雉春夏季栖息地选择

2012年4~8月,在甘肃莲花山国家级自然保护区采用无线电遥测技术并结合野外观察,对血雉春季和夏季的栖息地特征进行了比较研究。逻辑斯蒂回归分析表明,雪深度、灌木盖度和距水源距离是影响血雉春季栖息地选择的主要因子;夏季血雉以乔木数量、灌木高度和坡向作为栖息地选择的主要因子。t检验和U检验结果表明:乔木胸径、针叶树数量、灌木高度、灌木盖度、苔藓盖度、草盖度在春、夏两个季节内差异极显著,而坡向在两个季节内差异显著。     

亚洲玉米螟产卵量增长曲线的一种新的拟合方法

本文用多项式方法与微分理论,提出逻辑斯蒂曲线的拟合新方法。应用这个方法建立了亚洲玉米螟产卵量动态模型,并阐述了计算参数方法。结果与其它方法相比,其优点是计算方便,而且拟合程度精确。用新方程作为预报虫害,可以提高预报效果。     

滞后—逻辑斯谛方程振动的充要条件

一、引言本文研究方程杨正清7卷的振动性。(1)产是物种自身调节反馈变滞后一逻辑斯谛方程。这是一类很重要的生态方程。它是研究有限空间内种群增长规律的重要工具之一。     

Stochastic modeling of aphid population growth with nonlinear, power-law dynamics

This paper develops a deterministic and a stochastic population size model based on power-law kinetics for the black-margined pecan aphid. The deterministic model in current use incorporates cumulative-size dependency, but its solution is symmetric. The analogous stochastic model incorporates the prolific reproductive capacity of the aphid. These models are generalized in this paper to include a delayed feedback mechanism for aphid death. Whereas the per capita aphid death rate in the current model is proportional to cumulative size, delayed feedback is implemented by assuming that the per capita rate is proportional to some power of cumulative size, leading to so-called power-law dynamics. The solution to the resulting differential equations model is a left-skewed abundance curve. Such skewness is characteristic of observed aphid data, and the generalized model fits data well. The assumed stochastic model is solved using Kolmogrov equations, and differential equations are given for low order cumulants. Moment closure approximations, which are simple to apply, are shown to give accurate predictions of the two endpoints of practical interest, namely (1) a point estimate of peak aphid count and (2) an interval estimate of final cumulative aphid count. The new models should be widely applicable to other aphid species, as they are based on three fundamental properties of aphid population biology.     

小十三星瓢虫对苜蓿斑蚜的捕食功能反应

对小十三星瓢虫Adonia variegata(Goeze)捕食苜蓿斑蚜Therioaphis trifolii(Monell)的研究表明,其功能反应为Holling-Ⅱ型模型,方程为Na=0.967N/(1+0.0095N),捕食苜蓿斑蚜的数量随斑蚜密度增加而增大,日最大捕食量为102头。在10~25℃下,小十三星瓢虫捕食率y与温度x的关系为y=3.4x-7.9375;在25~35℃间的捕食率y与温度x的关系为y=137.08-2.25x。25℃下小十三星瓢虫捕食率最高,捕食率达79.4%。在种内干扰条件下,其捕食作用率E随天敌密度P的增加而减少,干扰反应数学模型为E=0.6063P-0.6743。随着叶片数的增多,小十三星瓢虫和斑蚜之间的距离相对增大,造成捕食率的下降。     

3个新引进小麦品种对麦长管蚜抗性的初步研究

以小偃-22和Amigo(美国)为对照对麦长管蚜在3个新引进小麦品种Astron、Batis和Xanthos(德国)上的抗蚜性进行了测定。在室内控制条件下,麦长管蚜在5个品种上的发育历期(DD)、体重差(dW)、相对日均体重增长率(MRGR)和生殖力(F)的测定结果表明,Astron、Xanthos与Amigo、小偃-22的抗性水平相当,均优于Batis;在大田自然条件下,通过对不同品种在不同生育期的感蚜指数以及感蚜量动态曲线的监测分析表明,Astron、Xanthos在我国的抗蚜水平与抗性品种Amigo的抗蚜性水平相当,优于Batis和小偃-22。可初步说明Astron、Xanthos在我国也具有较好的抗蚜性,可作为我国抗蚜育种材料。     

Tripartite Interactions of Barley Yellow Dwarf Virus,Sitobion avenae and Wheat Varieties

The tripartite interactions in a pathosystem involving wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), the Barley yellow dwarf virus (BYDV), and the BYDV vector aphid Sitobion avenae were studied under field conditions to determine the impact of these interactions on aphid populations, virus pathology and grain yield. Wheat varietal resistance to BYDV and aphids varied among the three wheat varieties studied over two consecutive years. The results demonstrated that (1) aphid peak number (APN) in the aphid + BYDV (viruliferous aphid) treatment was greater and occurred earlier than that in the non-viruliferous aphid treatment. The APN and the area under the curve of population dynamics (AUC) on a S. avenae-resistant variety 98-10-30 was significantly lower than on two aphid-susceptible varieties Tam200(13)G and Xiaoyan6. (2) The production of alatae (PA) was greater on the variety 98-10-30 than on the other varieties, and PA was greater in the aphid + BYDV treatment on 98-10-30 than in the non-viruliferous aphid treatment, but this trend was reversed on Tam200(13)G and Xiaoyan6. (3) The BYDV disease incidence (DIC) on the variety 98-10-30 was greater than that on the other two varieties in 2012, and the disease index (DID) on Tam200(13)G was lower than on the other varieties in the aphid + BYDV and BYDV treatments in 2012, but not in 2011 when aphid vector numbers were generally lower. (4) Yield loss in the aphid + BYDV treatment tended to be greater than that in the aphid or BYDV alone treatments across varieties and years. We suggested that aphid population development and BYDV transmission tend to promote each other under field conditions. The aphids + BYDV treatment caused greater yield reductions than non-viruliferous aphids or virus treatment. Wheat varietal resistance in 98-10-30 affects the aphid dispersal, virus transmission and wheat yield loss though inhibits aphid populations from increasing.     

Aphid response to elevated ozone and CO2

Numerous reports indicate that pollution stress caused by sulphur dioxide (SO₂), oxies of nitrogen or fluorides promote aphid growth on herbaceous and woody plants. At SO₂ exposures, the response curve of aphids is bell-shaped having the peak at 100 ppb. This curvilinear response is related to physiological stress responses of host plants exposed to pollutants. On the other hand, observations of aphid performance on ozone-exposed (O₃) or elevated carbon dioxide-exposed (CO₂) plants have given very variable results. Depending on the duration and concentration of O₃ or elevated CO₂ exposure or the age of the exposed plants, aphid growth on the same plants either decreased or increased in comparison to growth on control plants grown in filtered air. The results of these studies suggest that there is no general air pollution-induced plant stress that triggers aphid outbreaks on plants. Plants grown in elevated CO₂ usually have higher C/N ratios than plants grown in current ambient CO₂ atmosphere. A reduced proportion of nitrogen in the plant foliage decreases growth of chewing herbivorous insects, but the few studies of elevated CO₂ effects on sucking insects such as aphids have not yielded similar consistent effects. The present paper reviews recent studies of elevated CO₂ effects on aphids and discusses the effects of combined elevated O₃ and CO₂ exposures on aphid performance on woody plants using pine and birch aphids as examples.     

蚜虫性信息素

蚜虫属同翅目蚜总科,是重要的农作物害虫。蚜虫长年行孤雌生殖,在中、高纬度深秋时,产生性蚜,以卵越冬。雌性蚜分泌性信息素荆芥内酯(nepetalactone)和荆芥醇(nepetalactol)。该文综述了蚜虫性信息素的结构与组分、性腺的形态结构、性信息素释放及影响因素;性信息素对雌性母和天敌的引诱作用;性信息素在蚜虫种间隔离中的地位和作用以及蚜虫性信息素在蚜虫防治中的应用前景。     

Analysis of spatial patterns at a geographical scale over north-western Europe from point-referenced aphid count data

The spatial analysis by distance indices (SADIE) technique was developed to evaluate the spatial pattern of point-referenced count data as well as the spatial association between two sets of data sharing the same point locations. This paper presents an analysis of spatial patterns in aphid count data and the association of these data with climate across north-west Europe. The paper tests the applicability of the technique to large geographical areas. Aggregation and cluster indices were calculated for the total annual abundance of the peach-potato aphid Myzus persicae (Sulzer) and for the annual mean rainfall and temperature at aphid monitoring sites. Association indices demonstrated the stability in time of aphid spatial structures and the correlation between aphid density and climate patterns. Groups of relatively large numbers of aphids, termed patches, and groups of relatively small numbers of aphids, termed gaps, were located and their mean size estimated. The aphid patterns were quite stable in time and the spatial patterns of temperature and rainfall were weakly associated with M. persicae annual abundance. Similarities were observed between the results of SADIE and those from the more widely used technique of spatial autocorrelation (SAC). However, the SADIE association index has the advantage of quantifying the possible associations between aphid data and the factors that determine population distribution. Thus, high temperature and low rainfall were identified as environmental factors that were positively associated with aphid abundance across north-west Europe.     

Variation for resistance to aphids (Homoptera: Aphididae) among tomato inbred backcross lines derived from wild Lycopersicon species

Two tomato inbred backcross line (IBL) populations, derived from crosses between aphid-susceptible Lycopersicon esculentum Mill. 'Peto 95-43' X resistant wild L. pennellii Corr (D'arcy) accession LA716, and Peto 95-43 X resistant wild L. hirsutum f. glabratum Mull accession LA407, were evaluated in replicated field experiments for resistance to potato aphid, Macrosiphum euphorbiae (Thomas), and green peach aphid, Myzus persicae (Sulzer). Aphid infestation scores for each IBL and control (LA716, LA407, Peto 95-43, and susceptible 'Alta') plot were recorded weekly for 5 and 9 wk during the summers of 2000 and 2001, respectively. Aphid infestation scores from leaflets were used to calculate area under the infestation pressure curve (AUIPC), a measure of aphid infestation throughout the growing season, for each IBL and control. Score AUIPC was highly correlated with actual aphid count AUIPC, indicating that scores accurately reflected aphid infestation. Score AUIPC was also highly correlated across both years (2000 and 2001) and locations. Low score AUIPC was significantly correlated with larger plant size and sprawling, indeterminate plant growth habit. Seven IBLs, LA716, and LA407 were significantly more resistant to aphids (lower score AUIPC) than susceptible parent Peto 95-43 in both years. Two IBLs, 1034 and 1051, were not significantly different from resistant LA407 for score AUIPC in both years. The seven aphid-resistant IBLs identified here can be useful as donor parent material for resistance breeding efforts in cultivated tomato.     

Modelling development time of Lipaphis erysimi (Hemiptera: Aphididae) at constant and variable temperatures

The development period from birth to adult of virginoparae of the turnip aphid, Lipaphis erysimi (Kaltenbach), at 14 constant, 15 alternating and 15 natural temperature regimes were modelled to determine mathematical functions for simulating aphid development under a wide range of natural conditions. The day-degree model, the logistic equation, and the Wang model were used to describe the relationships between temperature and development rate at constant and alternating temperatures. The three models were then used with a Weibull function describing the distribution of development times, to simulate the development of individuals of cohorts at natural temperature regimes. Comparison of the observed with simulated distributions of adult emergence indicates that all three models can simulate the development of L. erysimi equally well when temperature does not go below 6 degrees C (the notional low temperature threshold of the day-degree model) or above 30 degrees C. When accumulation of temperatures below 6 degrees C becomes substantial, only the logistic curve offers accurate simulations; the other two models give falsely longer durations of development. When accumulation of temperatures above 30 degrees C becomes substantial, the logistic curve and the Wang model offer more accurate simulations than the day-degree model, which tends to produce shorter durations of development. Further analysis of the data reveals that development rate of this aphid at a given unfavourable high temperature may vary with time. Methods for accurately simulating the development time of L. erysimi in the field are suggested. The significance of modelling insect development at low and high temperatures by non-linear models is discussed.     

Nonlinear stochastic modeling of aphid population growth

This paper develops a stochastic population size model for the black-margined pecan aphid. Prajneshu [Prajneshu, A nonlinear statistical model for aphid population growth. J. Indian Soc. Agric. Statist. 51 (1998), p. 73] proposes a novel nonlinear deterministic model for aphid abundance. The per capita death rate in his model is proportional to the cumulative population size, and the solution is a symmetric analytical function. This paper fits Prajneshu's deterministic model to data. An analogous stochastic model, in which both the current and the cumulative aphid counts are state variables, is then proposed. The bivariate solution of the model, with parameter values suggested by the data, is obtained by solving a large system of Kolmogorov equations. Differential equations are derived for the first and second order cumulants, and moment closure approximations are obtained for the means and variances by solving the set of only five equations. These approximations, which are simple for ecologists to calculate, are shown to give accurate predictions of the two endpoints of applied interest, namely (1) the peak aphid count and (2) the final cumulative aphid count.