Habitat selection reduces extinction of populations subject to Allee effects

Theoretical studies indicate that a single population under an Allee effect will decline to extinction if reduced below a particular threshold, but the existence of multiple local populations connected by random dispersal improves persistence of the global population. An additional process that can facilitate persistence is the existence of habitat selection by dispersers. Using analytic and simulation models of population change, I found that when habitat patches exhibiting Allee effects are connected by dispersing individuals, habitat selection by these dispersers increases the likelihood that patches persist at high densities, relative to results expected by random settlement. Populations exhibiting habitat selection also attain equilibrium more quickly than randomly dispersing populations. These effects are particularly important when Allee effects are large and more than two patches exist. Integrating habitat selection into population dynamics may help address why some studies have failed to find extinction thresholds in populations, despite well-known Allee effects in many species.     

A general population genetic framework for antagonistic selection that accounts for demography and recurrent mutation

Antagonistic selection--where alleles at a locus have opposing effects on male and female fitness ("sexual antagonism") or between components of fitness ("antagonistic pleiotropy")--might play an important role in maintaining population genetic variation and in driving phylogenetic and genomic patterns of sexual dimorphism and life-history evolution. While prior theory has thoroughly characterized the conditions necessary for antagonistic balancing selection to operate, we currently know little about the evolutionary interactions between antagonistic selection, recurrent mutation, and genetic drift, which should collectively shape empirical patterns of genetic variation. To fill this void, we developed and analyzed a series of population genetic models that simultaneously incorporate these processes. Our models identify two general properties of antagonistically selected loci. First, antagonistic selection inflates heterozygosity and fitness variance across a broad parameter range--a result that applies to alleles maintained by balancing selection and by recurrent mutation. Second, effective population size and genetic drift profoundly affect the statistical frequency distributions of antagonistically selected alleles. The "efficacy" of antagonistic selection (i.e., its tendency to dominate over genetic drift) is extremely weak relative to classical models, such as directional selection and overdominance. Alleles meeting traditional criteria for strong selection (N(e)s > 1, where N(e) is the effective population size, and s is a selection coefficient for a given sex or fitness component) may nevertheless evolve as if neutral. The effects of mutation and demography may generate population differences in overall levels of antagonistic fitness variation, as well as molecular population genetic signatures of balancing selection.     

A coalescent model of background selection with recombination,demography and variation in selection coefficients

There is increasing evidence that background selection, the effects of the elimination of recurring deleterious mutations by natural selection on variability at linked sites, may be a major factor shaping genome-wide patterns of genetic diversity. To accurately quantify the importance of background selection, it is vital to have computationally efficient models that include essential biological features. To this end, a structured coalescent procedure is used to construct a model of background selection that takes into account the effects of recombination, recent changes in population size and variation in selection coefficients against deleterious mutations across sites. Furthermore, this model allows a flexible organization of selected and neutral sites in the region concerned, and has the ability to generate sequence variability at both selected and neutral sites, allowing the correlation between these two types of sites to be studied. The accuracy of the model is verified by checking against the results of forward simulations. These simulations also reveal several patterns of diversity that are in qualitative agreement with observations reported in recent studies of DNA sequence polymorphisms. These results suggest that the model should be useful for data analysis.     

Consanguinity and demography in some Chilean populations.

Spatial and temporal changes in the rates and the patterns of consanguinity are studied in some (indigenous as well as admixed) populations of Chile. Relationship between the variation of infant mortality and late fetal death rates with the degree of inbreeding is also explored. The need of a temporal study of these demographic variables is also emphasized to elucidate the influence of marriage structure or determined reproductive patterns on the genetic and demographic aspects within these populations.     

Inferring the effects of demography and selection on Drosophila melanogaster populations from a chromosome-wide scan of DNA variation

Identifying regions of the Drosophila melanogaster genome that have been recent targets of positive Darwinian selection will provide evidence for adaptations that have helped this species to colonize temperate habitats. We have begun a search for such genomic regions by analyzing multiple loci (about 250) dispersed across the X chromosome in a putatively ancestral population from East Africa and a derived European population. For both populations we found evidence for past changes in population size. We estimated that a major bottleneck associated with the colonization of Europe occurred about 3,500-16,000 years ago. We also found that while this bottleneck can account for most of the reduction in variation observed in the European sample, there is a deficit of polymorphism in some genomic regions that cannot be explained by demography alone.     

Biomass in turtle populations: A neglected subject

Summary Biomass values for individual turtle species are as high as 586 kg/ha. Typical values are at least an order of magnitude greater than those typical of endotherms, but comparable to ectotherms with aquatic niches. Herbivorous turtle species tend to have higher biomasses than omnivorous or carnivorous species, but the differences are not statistically significant. Semiaquatic species typically have the lowest biomasses. Islands, ponds, and springs harbor species with the highest biomasses. Annual production estimates for two turtle species (three populations) are 1.4 to 14.9 and 6 kg/ha/yr, and are similar to estimates available for most other vertebrate groups except fishes (maximum, 528 kg/ha/yr).     

The dynamics of coupled populations subject to control

The dynamics of coupled populations have mostly been studied in the context of metapopulation viability with application to, for example, species at risk. However, when considering pests and pathogens, eradication, not persistence, is often the end goal. Humans may intervene to control nuisance populations, resulting in reciprocal interactions between the human and natural systems that can lead to unexpected dynamics. The incidence of these human-natural couplings has been increasing, hastening the need to better understand the emergent properties of such systems in order to predict and manage outbreaks of pests and pathogens. For example, the success of the growing aquaculture industry depends on our ability to manage pathogens and maintain a healthy environment for farmed and wild fish. We developed a model for the dynamics of connected populations subject to control, motivated by sea louse parasites that can disperse among salmon farms. The model includes exponential population growth with a forced decline when populations reach a threshold, representing control interventions. Coupling two populations with equal growth rates resulted in phase locking or synchrony in their dynamics. Populations with different growth rates had different periods of oscillation, leading to quasiperiodic dynamics when coupled. Adding small amounts of stochasticity destabilized quasiperiodic cycles to chaos, while stochasticity was damped for periodic or stable dynamics. Our analysis suggests that strict treatment thresholds, although well intended, can complicate parasite dynamics and hinder control efforts. Synchronizing populations via coordinated management among farms leads to more effective control that is required less frequently. Our model is simple and generally applicable to other systems where dispersal affects the management of pests and pathogens.     

Morphological affinities and demography of metal-age Southwest Asian populations

Multivariate and cluster analyses of human skeletal remains of seven regional groups and nine individual sites and periods reveal different patterns of relationships for the sexes. This complex pattern of morphological affinities probably depends on differential demographic features.     

A macroscopic approach to demography

A canonical/lognormal model for human demography is established, specifying the net maternity function and the age distribution for mothers of new-borns using a single macroscopic parameter vector of dimension five. The age distribution of mothers is canonical, while the net maternity function normalizes to a lognormal density. Comparison of an actual population with the model serves to identify anomalies in the population which may be indicative of phase transitions or influences from levels outside the demographic. Tracking the time development of the parameter vector may be used to predict the future state of a population, or to interpolate for data missing from the record. In accordance with classical theoretical considerations of Backman, Prigogine, et al., it emerges that the logarithm of a mothers age is the most fundamental time variable for demographic purposes.     

Detecting individual sites subject to episodic diversifying selection

The imprint of natural selection on protein coding genes is often difficult to identify because selection is frequently transient or episodic, i.e. it affects only a subset of lineages. Existing computational techniques, which are designed to identify sites subject to pervasive selection, may fail to recognize sites where selection is episodic: a large proportion of positively selected sites. We present a mixed effects model of evolution (MEME) that is capable of identifying instances of both episodic and pervasive positive selection at the level of an individual site. Using empirical and simulated data, we demonstrate the superior performance of MEME over older models under a broad range of scenarios. We find that episodic selection is widespread and conclude that the number of sites experiencing positive selection may have been vastly underestimated.     

Testing models of selection and demography in Drosophila simulans

We analyze patterns of nucleotide variability at 15 X-linked loci and 14 autosomal loci from a North American population of Drosophila simulans. We show that there is significantly more linkage disequilibrium on the X chromosome than on chromosome arm 3R and much more linkage disequilibrium on both chromosomes than expected from estimates of recombination rates, mutation rates, and levels of diversity. To explore what types of evolutionary models might explain this observation, we examine a model of recurrent, nonoverlapping selective sweeps and a model of a recent drastic bottleneck (e.g., founder event) in the demographic history of North American populations of D. simulans. The simple sweep model is not consistent with the observed patterns of linkage disequilibrium nor with the observed frequencies of segregating mutations. Under a restricted range of parameter values, a simple bottleneck model is consistent with multiple facets of the data. While our results do not exclude some influence of selection on X vs. autosome variability levels, they suggest that demography alone may account for patterns of linkage disequilibrium and the frequency spectrum of segregating mutations in this population of D. simulans.     

Response to selection and evolvability of invasive populations

While natural selection might in some cases facilitate invasions into novel habitats, few direct measurements of selection response exist for invasive populations. This study examined selection response to changes in salinity using the copepod Eurytemora affinis. This copepod has invaded fresh water from saline habitats multiple times independently throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Selection response to a constant intermediate salinity (5 PSU) was measured in the laboratory for saline source and freshwater invading populations from the St. Lawrence drainage (North America). These populations were reared under three conditions: (1) native salinities (0 or 15 PSU) for at least two generations, (2) 5 PSU for two generations, and (3) 5 PSU for six generations. Full-sib clutches taken from populations reared under these three conditions were split across four salinities (0, 5, 15, and 25 PSU) to determine reaction norms for survival and development time. Contrasts in survival and development time across the three rearing conditions were treated as the selection response. Selection at 5 PSU resulted in a significant decline in freshwater (0 PSU) tolerance for both the saline and freshwater populations. Yet, evolutionary differences in freshwater tolerance persisted between the saline and freshwater populations. The saline and freshwater populations converged in their high-salinity (25 PSU) tolerance, with an increase in the freshwater population and decline in the saline population. Development time did not shift greatly in response to selection at 5 PSU. For all three rearing conditions, the freshwater population exhibited retarded larval development and accelerated juvenile development relative to the saline population. Results from this study indicate that both the saline and freshwater populations exhibit significant responses to selection for a fitness-related trait critical for invasions into a novel habitat. For the Symposium on “Evolvability and Adaptation of Invasive Species,” Society for the Study of Evolution 2004.     

Persistence of host and parasite populations subject to experimental size-selective removal

Predators have the potential to limit the spread of pathogens not only by selecting infected prey but also by shaping prey demographics. We tested this idea with an epidemiological experiment in which we simulated variable levels of size-selective predation on zooplankton hosts and monitored the persistence of host and parasite populations. In the absence of simulated predation, the virulent protozoan Caullerya mesnili frequently drove its host Daphnia galeata to extinction. Uninfected control populations showed lower extinction rates and higher average densities than infected populations in the absence of simulated predation (all of the latter went extinct or remained infected). With a weak removal rate of the largest hosts, the proportion of populations in which the parasite drove the host to extinction decreased, while the number of populations in which the host persisted and the parasite went extinct increased. Host-parasite coexistence was also observed in some cases. With intermediate levels of removal, most of the parasite populations went extinct, while the host populations persisted. With an even higher removal rate, Daphnia were driven to extinction as well. Thus, variation in one factor, size-selective mortality, resulted in four different patterns of population dynamics. Our results highlight the potential role of predation in shaping the epidemiology and community structure of host-parasite systems.     

A theoretical basis for measures of kin selection in subdivided populations: finite populations and localized dispersal

The analysis of kin selection in subdivided populations has been hampered by the lack of well‐defined measures of genealogical relatedness in the presence of localized dispersal. Furthermore, the usual arguments underlying the definition of game‐theoretical measures of inclusive fitness are not exact under localized dispersal. We define such measures to give the first‐order effects of selection on the probability of fixation of an allele. The derived measures of kin selection and relatedness are valid in finite populations and under localized dispersal. For the infinite island model, the resulting measure of kin selection is equivalent to a previously used measure. In other cases its definition is based on definitions of relatedness which are different from the usual ones. To illustrate the approach, we reanalyse a model with localized dispersal. We consider sex ratio evolution under sex‐specific dispersal behaviour, and the results confirm the earlier conclusion that the sex ratio is biased towards the sex with the dispersal rate closer to the optimal dispersal rate in the absence of sex‐specific dispersal behaviour.     

Disentangling the effects of demography and selection in human history

Demographic events affect all genes in a genome, whereas natural selection has only local effects. Using publicly available data from 151 loci sequenced in both European-American and African-American populations, we attempt to distinguish the effects of demography and selection. To analyze large sets of population genetic data such as this one, we introduce "Perlymorphism," a Unix-based suite of analysis tools. Our analyses show that the demographic histories of human populations can account for a large proportion of effects on the level and frequency of variation across the genome. The African-American population shows both a higher level of nucleotide diversity and more negative values of Tajima's D statistic than does a European-American population. Using coalescent simulations, we show that the significantly negative values of the D statistic in African-Americans and the positive values in European-Americans are well explained by relatively simple models of population admixture and bottleneck, respectively. Working within these nonequilibrium frameworks, we are still able to show deviations from neutral expectations at a number of loci, including ABO and TRPV6. In addition, we show that the frequency spectrum of mutations--corrected for levels of polymorphism--is correlated with recombination rate only in European-Americans. These results are consistent with repeated selective sweeps in non-African populations, in agreement with recent reports using microsatellite data.     

Comparative demography of sympatric populations of Lacerta vivipara and Lacerta agilis

Summary A mark-recapture study was carried out in sympatric populations of Lacerta agilis and Lacerta vivipara in the Netherlands from 1976 to 1982. In most years the age structure of both populations was pyramidal. For both species life expectation of females was higher and on average they did live longer. Hence the sex ratio for adults deviated significantly from 1.0 in favour of females. Maximum age for Lacerta vivipara was 8 years (female) and for Lacerta agilis 12 years (male). The density of both species fluctuated around 100/ha. The biomass of Lacerta agilis was twice that of Lacerta vivipara. In Lacerta vivipara the 3rd and 4th calendar year class supplied 78% of total net reproduction; in Lacerta agilis the 4th, 5th, and 6th calendar year classes supplied 68%. In both populations the population replacement rate was 2. Population turnover time was 4.83 years for Lacerta agilis and 2.81 for Lacerta vivipara. The life history strategy of the Lacerta vivipara population is compared with six other European Lacertavivipara populations.     

Genetic correlation and response to selection in simulated populations

Summary Effects of truncation selection of a primary trait upon genetic correlation with a secondary trait were examined over 30 generations in genetic populations simulated by computer. Populations were 24 males and 24 females mated randomly with replacement; number of offspring was determined by intensity of selection. Each trait was controlled by 48 loci segregating independently, effects were equal at every locus, and gene frequency was arbitrarily set at 0.5 at each locus in the initial generation. All combinations of three genetic correlations, three intensities of selection, and three environmental variances were simulated. Gene action was additive. Genetic correlation was set by number of loci which affected both traits and was measured each generation as the product-moment correlation of genotypic values and estimated by two methods of combining phenotypic covariances between parent and offspring.Genetic correlations in each offspring generation remained consistently near initial correlations for all environmental variances when fraction of offspring saved as parents was as large as one-half. When the fraction of offspring saved was as small as one-fifth, genetic correlations decreased but most rapidly with heritability high and after the 15th generation of selection. Truncation selection caused genetic correlation to decrease in those offspring selected to become parents of the next generation. Amount of reduction depended on heritability of the selected trait rather than on degree of truncation selection. Estimates of genetic correlation from phenotypic covariances between parent and offspring fluctuated markedly from real correlations in the small populations simulated.Michigan Agricultural Experiment Station Journal Article 4836. Part of North Central Regional Project NC-2.     

Effects of artificial stabilizing selection on Drosophila populations subjected to directional selection for another trait

Stabilizing selection for a set of morphometric wing traits was combined with directional selection for the increased expression of radius incompletus (ri) mutation of Drosophila melanogaster. Three experimental regimes were used: directional and stabilizing selection (stabilized lines); directional selection (unstabilized lines); no selection (controls). Response to selection for ri expression was similar in all selected lines but variation of this character was higher in the unstabilized lines compared to the stabilized ones. The competitive indices measured after termination of selection did not significantly differ under different treatments while fluctuating asymmetry was significantly lower in stabilized than in unstabilized lines. The possible causes of these differences are discussed.