A review of predation as a limiting factor for bird populations in mesopredator‐rich landscapes: a case study of the UK

The impact of increasing vertebrate predator numbers on bird populations is widely debated among the general public, game managers and conservationists across Europe. However, there are few systematic reviews of whether predation limits the population sizes of European bird species. Views on the impacts of predation are particularly polarised in the UK, probably because the UK has a globally exceptional culture of intensive, high‐yield gamebird management where predator removal is the norm. In addition, most apex predators have been exterminated or much depleted in numbers, contributing to a widely held perception that the UK has high numbers of mesopredators. This has resulted in many high‐quality studies of mesopredator impacts over several decades. Here we present results from a systematic review of predator trends and abundance, and assess whether predation limits the population sizes of 90 bird species in the UK. Our results confirm that the generalist predators Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes) and Crows (Corvus corone and C. cornix) occur at high densities in the UK compared with other European countries. In addition, some avian and mammalian predators have increased numerically in the UK during recent decades. Despite these high and increasing densities of predators, we found little evidence that predation limits populations of pigeons, woodpeckers and passerines, whereas evidence suggests that ground‐nesting seabirds, waders and gamebirds can be limited by predation. Using life‐history characteristics of prey species, we found that mainly long‐lived species with high adult survival and late onset of breeding were limited by predation. Single‐brooded species were also more likely to be limited by predation than multi‐brooded species. Predators that depredate prey species during all life stages (i.e. from nest to adult stages) limited prey numbers more than predators that depredated only specific life stages (e.g. solely during the nest phase). The Red Fox and non‐native mammals (e.g. the American Mink Neovison vison) were frequently identified as numerically limiting their prey species. Our review has identified predator–prey interactions that are particularly likely to result in population declines of prey species. In the short term, traditional predator‐management techniques (e.g. lethal control or fencing to reduce predation by a small number of predator species) could be used to protect these vulnerable species. However, as these techniques are costly and time‐consuming, we advocate that future research should identify land‐use practices and landscape configurations that would reduce predator numbers and predation rates.     

Predator identification and effects of habitat management and fencing on depredation rates of simulated nests of an endangered population of Hermann’s tortoises

Nest predation has been identified as the main threat behind the negative population dynamics in chelonian species and in particular in the native Iberian population of the Western Hermann’s tortoise Testudo hermanni hermanni. This endangered subspecies is found within the Albera Nature Reserve, where this study was performed. We selected three formerly high-density tortoise areas to carry out different trials whose aims were to: (1) identify nest predator species, (2) test the success of reducing the shrub cover to reduce nest predation in potential new nesting areas, and (3) assess fencing efficiency to exclude predators. For the first objective, camera-trapping was used to identify nest predators, with sardines and artificial tortoise nests as lures. We obtained 825 pictures of possible predators and demonstrated that the beech marten was the most abundant predator in the study areas, followed by the badger and the wild boar. For the second objective, predation of artificial nests was compared between plots managed for shrub reduction (27 plots of 4, 25, and 100?m²) and a natural nesting area (nine control plots of 100?m²). Predation was strong in the managed plots (43.6% after 48?h and 99.6% after 144?h) but highest in the control area (100% after 48?h). Surprisingly, predation occurred at an even faster pace when we repeated the trial with a single artificial nest (in order to reduce odor intensity). Finally, we compared predation rates between eight fenced and eight unfenced plots of 100?m². Fencing was partially effective to control nest predation because it excluded all the main predator species except the beech marten, which learned to go through it. Since the nest predation threat to this endangered population is critical, new strategies are needed to control nest predation by taking into account the ability of predators to learn nest location.     

Landscapes of fear or competition? Predation did not alter habitat choice by Arctic rodents

In systems where predation plays a key role in the dynamics of prey populations, such as in Arctic rodents, it is reasonable to assume that differential patterns of habitat use by prey species represent adaptive responses to spatial variation in predation. However, habitat selection by collared (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus) and brown (Lemmus trimucronatus) lemmings depends on intra- and inter-specific densities, and there has been little agreement on the respective influences of food abundance, predators, and competition for habitat on lemming dynamics. Thus, we investigated whether predation affected selection of sedge-meadow versus upland tundra by collared lemmings in the central Canadian Arctic. We first controlled for the effects of competition on lemming habitat selection. We then searched for an additional signal of predation by comparing habitat selection patterns between 12 control plots and one large grid where lemmings were protected from predators by fencing in 1996 and 1997, but not during 5 subsequent years when we monitored habitat use in the grid as well as in the control plots. Dicrostonyx used upland preferentially over meadows and was more numerous in 1996 and 2011 than in other sample years. Lemmus was also more abundant in 1996 than in subsequent years, but its abundance was too low in the exclosure to assess whether exclusion of predators influenced its habitat selection. Contrary to the effects of competition, predation had a negligible impact on the spatial dynamics of Dicrostonyx, at least during summer. These results suggest that any differences in predation risk between the two habitats have little direct influence on the temporal dynamics of Dicrostonyx even if induced through predator–prey cycles.     

Effects of predation and habitat structure on the population dynamics of house mice in large outdoor enclosures

This paper examines the effect of different levels of protection from predation on feral house mice. Mice were contained in eight 50×50 m outdoor enclosures. Enclosures allowed access to a suite of freeliving vertebrate predators from the surrounding area, including feral foxes, feral cats and Australian raptors. A 10–15% cover of small, felled cypress pine trees was added in strips to low grassland to increase habitat complexity. Mice were not protected from predation when compared with low grassland pens, possibly because predators were able to focus their hunting activity in the strips. However, when felled trees were covered with wire netting, hence providing higher quality refuge, mouse populations achieved higher densities than in low grassland pens. A predator exclusion treatment was used to confirm the refuge effect was due to a reduction in the impact of predation. Survival rates under the different treatments were generally consistent with population level responses, with mice having lower survival in low grassland pens than in high refuge pens. This is the first study with mammals that confirms the importance of refuges from predators for prey populations.     

Numerical and dietary responses of a predator community in a temperate zone of Europe

The generalist predation hypothesis predicts that the functional responses of generalist predator species should be quicker than those of specialist predators and have a regulating effect on vole populations. New interpretations of their role in temperate ecosystems have, however, reactivated a debate suggesting generalist predators may have a destabilizing effect under certain conditions (e.g. landscape homogeneity, low prey diversity, temporary dominance of 1 prey species associated with a high degree of dietary specialization). We studied a rich predator community dominated by generalist carnivores ( Martes spp., Vulpes vulpes, Felis catus ) over a 6 yr period in farmland and woodland in France. The most frequent prey were small rodents (mostly Microtus arvalis , a grassland species, and Apodemus spp., a woodland species). Alternative prey were diverse and dominated by lagomorphs ( Oryctolagus cuniculus, Lepus europeus ). We detected a numerical response among specialist carnivores but not among generalist predators. The dietary responses of generalist predators were fairly complex and most often dependent on variation in density of at least 1 prey species. These results support the generalist predation hypothesis. We document a switch to alternative prey, an increase of diet diversity, and a decrease of diet overlap between small and medium-sized generalists during the low density phase of M. arvalis . In this ecosystem, the high density phases of small mammal species are synchronous and cause a temporary specializing of several generalist predator species. This rapid functional response may indicate the predominant role of generalists in low amplitude population cycles of voles observed in some temperate areas.     

Heterogeneous landscapes and the role of refuge on the population dynamics of a specialist predator and its prey

How, and where, a prey species survives predation by a specialist predator during low phases of population fluctuations or a cycle, and how the increase phase of prey population is initiated, are much-debated questions in population and theoretical ecology. The persistence of the prey species could be due mainly to habitats that act as refuges from predation and/or due to anti-predatory behaviour of individuals. We present models for the former conjecture in two (and three) habitat systems with a specialist predator and its favoured prey. The model is based on dispersal of prey between habitats with high reproductive output but high risk of predation, and less productive habitats with relatively low risk of predation. We illustrate the predictions of our model using parameters from one of the most intriguing vertebrate predator–prey systems, the multi-annual population cycles of boreal voles and their predators. We suggest that cyclic population dynamics could result from a sequence of extinction and re–colonization events. Field voles (Microtus agrestis), a key vole species in the system, can be hunted to extinction in their preferred meadow habitat, but persist in sub-optimal wet habitats where their main predator, the least weasel (Mustela nivalis nivalis) has a low hunting efficiency. Re–colonization of favourable habitats would occur after the predator population crashes. At the local scale, the model suggests that the periodicity and amplitude of population cycles can be strongly influenced by the relative availability of risky and safe habitats for the prey. Furthermore, factors like intra-guild predation may lead to reduced predation pressure on field voles in sub-optimal habitats, which would act as a refuge for voles during the low phase of their population cycles. Elasticity analysis suggested that our model is quite robust to changes in most parameters but sensitive to changes in the population dynamics of field voles in the optimal grassland habitat, and to the maximum predation rate of weasels.     

Preference and performance of a gall-inducing sawfly: plant vigor, sex, gall traits and phenology

Four hypotheses regarding the role of predation in the population dynamics of eruptive small mammal communities were tested using the small mammal assemblage found in mixed forests in New Zealand. Large-scale (750 ha) predator removal was conducted, targeting stoats ( Mustela erminea ). House mouse ( Mus musculus ) and ship rat ( Rattus rattus ) population dynamics during an eruption were compared in areas with and without predator reduction. The success of predator reduction was measured by comparing live-capture rates of predators on treatment and non-treatment areas, and by recruitment rates of the threatened northern brown kiwi ( Apteryx australis mantelli ). Overall, predator reduction was successful, although there was a continual low rate of reinvasion. The predictions and results were that 1) Predators can slow but not prevent a population eruption. Supported: Populations of mice and rats erupted to high densities in areas with and without predator reduction, following synchronous southern beech ( Nothofagus spp.) seeding. 2) Predators cannot truncate peak prey population size. Supported: Peak densities of mice and rats were not significantly different between treatment and non-treatment areas. 3) Predators can hasten the rate of decline in prey populations during the crash phase. Not supported: There was evidence of populations of mice and rats declining slower in areas with predators removed, but none of the trends were significant. 4) Predators can limit low-phase prey populations. Equivocal: Populations of rats in beech forest, and population of mice and rats in coastline habitats were significantly higher in areas with predators removed, but were not significantly different in tawa-podocarp forest. Therefore, the role of food in driving the early stages of the mouse and rat eruption was demonstrated, but the role of predation in the decline and low phases is unclear.     

Variation in foraging success among predators and its implications for population dynamics

The effects of the expected predation rate on population dynamics have been studied intensively, but little is known about the effects of predation rate variability (i.e., predator individuals having variable foraging success) on population dynamics. In this study, variation in foraging success among predators was quantified by observing the predation of the wolf spider Pardosa pseudoannulata on the cricket Gryllus bimaculatus in the laboratory. A population model was then developed, and the effect of foraging variability on predator–prey dynamics was examined by incorporating levels of variation comparable to those quantified in the experiment. The variability in the foraging success among spiders was greater than would be expected by chance (i.e., the random allocation of prey to predators). The foraging variation was density‐dependent; it became higher as the predator density increased. A population model that incorporates foraging variation shows that the variation influences population dynamics by affecting the numerical response of predators. In particular, the variation induces negative density‐dependent effects among predators and stabilizes predator–prey dynamics.     

Revealing the role of predator interference in a predator–prey system with disease in prey population

Predation on a species subjected to an infectious disease can affect both the infection level and the population dynamics. There is an ongoing debate about the act of managing disease in natural populations through predation. Recent theoretical and empirical evidence shows that predation on infected populations can have both positive and negative influences on disease in prey populations. Here, we present a predator–prey system where the prey population is subjected to an infectious disease to explore the impact of predator on disease dynamics. Specifically, we investigate how the interference among predators affects the dynamics and structure of the predator–prey community. We perform a detailed numerical bifurcation analysis and find an unusually large variety of complex dynamics, such as, bistability, torus and chaos, in the presence of predators. We show that, depending on the strength of interference among predators, predators enhance or control disease outbreaks and population persistence. Moreover, the presence of multistable regimes makes the system very sensitive to perturbations and facilitates a number of regime shifts. Since, the habitat structure and the choice of predators deeply influence the interference among predators, thus before applying predators to control disease in prey populations or applying predator control strategy for wildlife management, it is essential to carefully investigate how these predators interact with each other in that specific habitat; otherwise it may lead to ecological disaster.     

Sacrificial males: the potential role of copulation and predation in contributing to copepod sex‐skewed ratios

Predation is thought to play a selective role in the emergence of behavioural traits in prey. Differences in behaviour between prey demographics may, therefore, be driven by predation with select components of the population being less vulnerable to predators. While under controlled conditions prey demography has been shown to have consequences for predation success, investigations linking these implications to natural prey population demographics are scarce. Here we assess predator–prey dynamics between notonectid predators (backswimmers) and Lovenula raynerae (Copepoda), key faunal groups in temperate ephemeral pond ecosystems. Using a combination of field and experimental approaches we test for the development and mechanism of predation‐induced sex‐skewed ratios. A natural population of L. raynerae was tracked over time in relation to their predator (notonectid) and prey (Cladocera) numbers. In the laboratory, L. raynerae sex ratios were also assessed over time but in the absence of predation pressure. Predation success and prey performance experiments evaluating differences between L. raynerae male, female, gravid female and copulating pairs exposed to notonectid predation were then examined. Under natural conditions, a female dominated copepod population developed over time and was correlated to predation pressure, while under predator‐free conditions non sex‐skewed prey population demographics persisted. Predator–prey laboratory trials showed no difference in vulnerability and escape performance for male, female and gravid female copepods, but pairs in copula were significantly more vulnerable to predation. This vulnerability was not shared by both sexes, with only female copepods ultimately escaping from successful predation on a mating pair. These results suggest that contact periods during copula may contribute to the development of sex‐skewed copepod ratios over time in ecosystems dominated by hexapod predators. This is discussed within the context of vertebrate and invertebrate predation and how these dissimilar types of predation are likely to have acted as selective pressures for copepod mating systems.     

Molecular gut-content analysis of a predator assemblage reveals the effect of habitat manipulation on biological control in the field

Habitat manipulation in agroecosystems can influence predator–prey interactions. In this study, we collected foliar predators from field potato plots with different mulch treatments and assayed them for DNA of the target prey, Leptinotarsa decemlineata (Say), using species-specific primers. Concurrently, L. decemlineata larval abundance and plant damage were recorded from the same plots. Predator species abundance and diversity were not influenced by habitat manipulation, while prey density was highest in plots without mulch. Gut-content analysis revealed that the highest incidence of predators positive for L. decemlineata DNA was in plots without mulch, where target prey abundance was highest. Therefore, the lower prey abundance in mulched plots was not due to predation. The most abundant species in the predator assemblage was Coleomegilla maculata, which had the lowest proportion of L. decemlineata DNA in the gut. Podisus maculiventris, Perillus bioculatus, and Lebia grandis were less abundant but had a higher incidence of target prey DNA in the gut. DNA detectability half-lives were used to adjust for inter-specific variation in DNA digestive rates of the four predator species. Using this information to adjust actual number of positives for prey DNA, we compared proportions positive for L. decemlineata and found that P. maculiventris is the most effective predator species in the complex.     

Predation by odonates depresses mosquito abundance in water-filled tree holes in Panama

In the lowland moist forest of Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, larvae of four common species of odonates, a mosquito, and a tadpole are the major predators in water-filled tree holes. Mosquito larvae are their most common prey. Holes colonized naturally by predators and prey had lower densities of mosquitoes if odonates were present than if they were absent. Using artificial tree holes placed in the field, we tested the effects of odonates on their mosquito prey while controlling for the quantity and species of predator, hole volume, and nutrient input. In large and small holes with low nutrient input, odonates depressed the number of mosquitoes present and the number that survived to pupation. Increasing nutrient input (and consequently, mosquito abundance) to abnormally high levels dampened the effect of predation when odonates were relatively small. However, the predators grew faster with higher nutrients, and large larvae in all three genera reduced the number of mosquitoes surviving to pupation, even though the abundance of mosquito larvae remained high. Size-selective predation by the odonates is a likely explanation for this result; large mosquito larvae were less abundant in the predator treatment than in the controls. Because species assemblages were similar between natural and artificial tree holes, our results suggest that odonates are keystone species in tree holes on BCI, where they are the most common large predators. Received: 4 November 1996 / Accepted: 11 April 1997     

Landscape heterogeneity shapes predation in a newly restored predator-prey system

Because some native ungulates have lived without top predators for generations, it has been uncertain whether runaway predation would occur when predators are newly restored to these systems. We show that landscape features and vegetation, which influence predator detection and capture of prey, shape large-scale patterns of predation in a newly restored predator–prey system. We analysed the spatial distribution of wolf ( Canis lupus ) predation on elk ( Cervus elaphus ) on the Northern Range of Yellowstone National Park over 10 consecutive winters. The influence of wolf distribution on kill sites diminished over the course of this study, a result that was likely caused by territorial constraints on wolf distribution. In contrast, landscape factors strongly influenced kill sites, creating distinct hunting grounds and prey refugia. Elk in this newly restored predator–prey system should be able to mediate their risk of predation by movement and habitat selection across a heterogeneous risk landscape.     

Relaxation of risk-sensitive behaviour of prey following disease-induced decline of an apex predator,the Tasmanian devil

Apex predators structure ecosystems through lethal and non-lethal interactions with prey, and their global decline is causing loss of ecological function. Behavioural changes of prey are some of the most rapid responses to predator decline and may act as an early indicator of cascading effects. The Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii), an apex predator, is undergoing progressive and extensive population decline, of more than 90% in long-diseased areas, caused by a novel disease. Time since local disease outbreak correlates with devil population declines and thus predation risk. We used hair traps and giving-up densities (GUDs) in food patches to test whether a major prey species of devils, the arboreal common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula), is responsive to the changing risk of predation when they forage on the ground. Possums spend more time on the ground, discover food patches faster and forage more to a lower GUD with increasing years since disease outbreak and greater devil population decline. Loss of top–down effects of devils with respect to predation risk was evident at 90% devil population decline, with possum behaviour indistinguishable from a devil-free island. Alternative predators may help to maintain risk-sensitive anti-predator behaviours in possums while devil populations remain low.     

Local prey vulnerability increases with multiple attacks by a predator

Theory and empirical evidence suggest that predator activity makes prey more wary and less vulnerable to predation. However if at least some prey in the population are energetically or spatially constrained, then predators may eventually increase local prey vulnerability because of the cumulative costs of anti‐predation behaviour. We tested whether repeated attacks by a predator might increase prey vulnerability in a system where redshanks on a saltmarsh are attacked regularly by sparrowhawks from adjacent woodland. Cumulative attack number led to a reduction in redshank numbers and flock size (but had no effect on how close redshanks fed to predator‐concealing cover) because some redshanks moved to safer but less profitable habitats, leaving smaller flocks on the saltmarsh. This effect held even though numbers of redshank on the saltmarsh increased with time of day. As a result of the change in flock size, predicted attack‐success increased up to 1.6‐fold for the sparrowhawk, while individual risk of capture for the redshank increased up to 4.5‐fold among those individuals remaining on the saltmarsh. The effect did not arise simply because hawks were more likely to attack smaller flocks because attack rate was not dependent on flock size or abundance. Our data demonstrate that when some individual prey are constrained in their ability to feed on alternative, safer foraging sites, their vulnerability to predation increases as predator attacks accumulate, although those, presumably better quality individuals that leave the immediate risky area will have lower vulnerability, so that the mean vulnerability across the entire population may not have changed substantially. This suggests that the selective benefits of multiple low‐cost attacks by predators on prey could potentially lead to 1) locally heightened trait‐mediated interactions, 2) locally reduced interference among competing predators, and 3) the evolution of active prey manipulation by predators.     

Multiple predators induce risk reduction in coexisting vole species

Large predators may affect the hunting efficiency of smaller ones directly by decreasing their numbers, or indirectly by altering their behaviour. Either way this may have positive effects on the density of shared prey. Using large outdoor enclosures, we experimentally studied whether the presence of the Tengmalm's owl Aegolius funereus affects the hunting efficiency of the smallest member of the vole-eating predator guild, the least weasel Mustela nivalis, as measured by population responses of coexisting prey species, the field vole Microtus agrestis and the sibling vole M. levis . We compared the density and survival probability of vole populations exposed to no predation, weasel predation or combined predation by a weasel and an owl. The combined predation of both owl and weasel did not result in obvious changes in the density of sibling and field vole populations compared to the control populations without predators, while predation by least weasel alone decreased the densities of sibling voles and induced a similar trend in field vole densities. Survival of field voles was not affected by predator treatment while sibling vole survival was lower in predator treated populations than in control populations. Our results suggest that weasels are intimidated by avian predators, but without changing the effects of predators on competitive situations between the two vole species. Non-lethal effects of intraguild predation therefore will not necessarily change competitive interactions between shared prey species.     

Short-term responses to elevated predator densities: noncompetitive intraguild interactions and behavior

We investigated the short-term response of an arthropod assemblage to elevated generalist predator densities by introducing Chinese mantids (Tenodera sinensis) to field plots in a replicated, controlled experiment. Abundances of carnivorous arthropods were reduced by mantids to a greater extent than herbivores, and cursorial spiders emigrated from treatment plots in greater numbers than from controls. Initially, this emigration consisted only of small spiders that were demonstrated in the laboratory to be prey for mantids. Thus, the initial response of an arthropod assemblage to increased predators, densities was increased interactions among predators, which caused decline in predator population densities in a shorter time than competition for prey would require. Predator avoidance behavior must be considered together with intraguild predation and competition when interpreting the outcome of predator manipulations. Shortterm experiments may be more valuable than longer term studies in detecting this effect.     

The anatomy of predator-prey dynamics in a changing climate

Humans are increasingly influencing global climate and regional predator assemblages, yet a mechanistic understanding of how climate and predation interact to affect fluctuations in prey populations is currently lacking. Here we develop a modelling framework to explore the effects of different predation strategies on the response of age-structured prey populations to a changing climate. We show that predation acts in opposition to temporal correlation in climatic conditions to suppress prey population fluctuations. Ambush predators such as lions are shown to be more effective at suppressing fluctuations in their prey than cursorial predators such as wolves, which chase down prey over long distances, because they are more effective predators on prime-aged adults. We model climate as a Markov process and explore the consequences of future changes in climatic autocorrelation for population dynamics. We show that the presence of healthy predator populations will be particularly important in dampening prey population fluctuations if temporal correlation in climatic conditions increases in the future.     

Induced changes in island fox (Urocyon littoralis) activity do not mitigate the extinction threat posed by a novel predator

Prey response to novel predators influences the impacts on prey populations of introduced predators, bio-control efforts, and predator range expansion. Predicting the impacts of novel predators on native prey requires an understanding of both predator avoidance strategies and their potential to reduce predation risk. We examine the response of island foxes (Urocyon littoralis) to invasion by golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos). Foxes reduced daytime activity and increased night time activity relative to eagle-na?ve foxes. Individual foxes reverted toward diurnal tendencies following eagle removal efforts. We quantified the potential population impact of reduced diurnality by modeling island fox population dynamics. Our model predicted an annual population decline similar to what was observed following golden eagle invasion and predicted that the observed 11% reduction in daytime activity would not reduce predation risk sufficiently to reduce extinction risk. The limited effect of this behaviorally plastic predator avoidance strategy highlights the importance of linking behavioral change to population dynamics for predicting the impact of novel predators on resident prey populations.     

Body mass relationships affect the age structure of predation across carnivore–ungulate systems: a review and synthesis

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