樱花始花期预报方法

根据对1981—2016年36年武汉大学樱园日本樱花始花期的记录资料及同期气象资料的研究分析表明:(1)樱花始花期提前,但变化趋势不明显,变率特别大,平均始花期为3月14至15日(闰年为13至14日);(2)为改进始花期预报方程,计算1月1日及2月1日至开花前期2月25日、2月底、3月5日、3月10日、3月15日的活动积温,发现积温与始花期相关性显著,可作为樱花始花期预报方程的因子;(3)分析始花期与1月1日及2月1日至开花前期2月25日、2月底、3月5日、3月10日、3月15日累计日照时数关系,发现始花期与累计日照时数呈负相关;(4)用活动积温作为预报因子改进始花期预报方程预报始花期,有效地提高了预报准确率。     

武汉大学樱花花期长度特征及预报方法

武汉大学樱花是武汉的一张"城市名片",开展樱花花期长度的预报工作,可为旅游部门管理工作和游客安排出行时间提供合理的参考。根据1979—2018年40年武汉大学樱园日本樱花树始花期和落花期的观测资料及同期气象资料的研究分析表明:(1)樱花的始花期和落花期在20世纪80—90年代期间有明显的提前;从20世纪90年代末开始至今,始花期与落花期变化趋势不明显,但变率较大,与全球气候变化停滞期相吻合;40年间花期长度变率很大,整体无明显的增多或减少的趋势。(2)平均始花期为3月14—15日,落花期为3月31日—4月1日,平均花期长度为18d。(3)花期长度与当年始花期日序数、开花期间平均气温、开花期间最高平均气温、最低平均气温和温度日较差平均值均呈负相关,与开花期间总降水量呈正相关。与开花期内平均极大风速值、平均降水量和日照时数等无明显相关性。(4)用1979—2015年共37年资料建立了樱花花期长度的单因子拟合、多因子回归及主成分分析模型,用2016—2018年3年资料进行检验,对武汉大学樱花花期长度进行了预报,取得了较好的试验效果。其中主成分回归模型、降水单因子拟合模型和多因子樱花花期长度回归模型预报效果最好,平均绝对误差在1.5d左右,后期将会把预报模型运用到实际的樱花花期预报工作中。     

郑州主要植物春季物候变化及其对气温变化的响应

根据1983—2004年期间郑州市的物候和气温资料,分析了郑州市4种木本植物和2种草本植物的春季物候变化趋势及其对气温变化的响应。结果表明,自1983年以来,郑州春季主要植物物候呈偏早趋势,其物候变化具有同步性和顺序性的基本特征。郑州主要植物始花期与早春（3—4月）平均气温的相关性达到极显著,而毛白杨和垂柳2种植物始花期与冬季平均气温的关系也达到极显著; 代表性植物的始花期随3—4月平均气温的升高而提前,气温每升高1 ℃,刺槐、垂柳、蒲公英和车前始花期分别提前4.17、3.69、8.16和13.0 d。此外,始花前4旬是始花期对气温变化反应最敏感的时间段。     

桃始花期的长期预报模型

根据桃开花对气候条件的要求及桃始花期资料,分析得出日平均气温稳定通过10℃初日与桃始花期基本吻合,相关系数为0．9853（n=15）。在历史气候资料基础上,运用周期分析方法对日平均气温稳定通过10℃初日进行预报。结合当年的天气特点进行上海地区桃始花期预报,2002～2004年预报平均误差为2．3d。     

迁地保育植物花期物候对迁入地气候变化的响应

以中国科学院武汉植物园内栽培的长果秤锤树(Sinojackia dolichocarpa C. J. Qi)、山白树(Sinowilsonia henryi Hemsl.)、夏腊梅(Sinocalycanthus chinensis Cheng et S. Y. Chang)、紫茎(Stewartia sinensis Rehd. et Wils.)和绒毛皂荚(Gleditsia vestita Chun et How ex B. G. Li) 5种迁地保育植物为对象,通过2008-2016年观察记录的初花期物候及整个花期长度的数据,研究花期的年际变化规律及其与迁入地武汉气候因子的相关性。结果显示:(1)从初花期来看,长果秤锤树的初花期每年提前1.25 d,紫茎的初花期每年推迟1.35 d,绒毛皂荚的初花期每年推迟1.22 d。(2)从花期长度来看,山白树的花期每年增加1.72 d,夏蜡梅的花期每年减少1.62 d,紫茎的花期每年增加0.32 d。(3)从花期与气候因子的相关性来看,年降水量、年平均相对湿度、 10℃有效积温、花前 10℃的有效积温是影响这5种植物初花期、花期长度的主要气候因子;不同物种间影响花期的主要气候因子有所差异。     

福建省漳州地区龙眼始花期预测模型

本文利用漳州市热带作物气象试验站1997~2013年龙眼花期物候观测资料,结合对应的气候资料,采用相关分析法分析开花前期温度、降水、日照等气象因子与始花时间的相关关系。结果表明:前期的平均气温、平均最低气温以及越冬期的积温与开花时间相关性较好,采用逐步回归方法,利用SPSS软件,建立了龙眼始花期预测模型,平均误差为2.2天,其中小等于3天的误差占总样本数的75%,模型拟合效果较好,预报准确率满足业务要求,可提供较为准确的始花期预报,为果农合理安排生产及对农业部门提前决策部署提供科学依据。     

沈阳城市森林主要树种物候对气候变暖的响应

采用统计和线性回归方法,探讨了近40年来沈阳城市森林主要树种物候对气候变暖的响应.结果表明,沈阳城市森林树木休眠期长短与冬季气温密切相关,适宜的寒冷条件有利于解除树木休眠期;树木萌动期早晚与冬季和早春气温高低呈显著的负相关关系,冬春季气温越高,芽萌动越提前.树木爆芽后15 d左右开始展叶,展叶早晚主要受展叶前的春季气温高低的影响,但与冬季气温没有相关关系.始花前2～8旬,特别是2～4旬气温对始花期影响最显著,春季气温升高始花期提前. 树木芽萌动期、展叶始期与寒冷指数（CI）呈显著正相关关系,而开花始期与CI没有相关关系.沈阳城市森林树木对气候变暖的响应,主要表现在年均温升高1 ℃,芽萌动期提前9 d,展叶始期提前10 d,开花始期提前5 d.     

近五十年北京板栗始花物候对光合有效辐射变化的响应

与全球范围内气候变暖对植物物候影响研究相比,其他气候因素（如光合有效辐射PAR等）对物候影响报道较少,果树花期物候对光合有效辐射变化响应的研究更是未见报道。本研究以1963—2008年间北京板栗始花物候资料及相应的日光合有效辐射数据为基础,利用偏最小二乘回归法确定了PAR影响板栗始花物候的两个关键阶段,进而分析了两阶段内PAR、温度及相对湿度变化对板栗花期的具体影响。结果表明,北京过去50年两相关阶段内PAR呈显著下降趋势,其中9月24日至次年2月5日问PAR下降对板栗花期提前具有促进作用,可解释12％的花期提前趋势;2月6日至次年5月31日间PAR下降促使花期延迟,但未达显著水平（P〉0．1）。板栗花期提前主要与2月6日至次年5月31日间温度升高有关,其间温度变化可解释41％的花期提前趋势;其次是相对湿度,PAR变化对花期影响较小。鉴于PAR、温度及相对湿度间的互作效应,PAR和相对湿度对花期物候的影响可由温度效应加以解释。     

2003-2018年米仓山地区植被物候时空变化及对气候的响应

植被物候直接反映了植被对环境变化响应的动态过程,对研究植被与气候的关系具有重要意义。基于遥感植被时序数据,探讨秦巴山区典型山地-米仓山地区植被物候变化及其对气候的响应。利用MODIS NDVI时序数据,采用动态阈值法获取米仓山地区植被物候参数;借助于Theil Sen斜率、Mann Kendall趋势检验方法结合植被类型数据分析研究区物候时空变化;采用偏相关方法分析物候变化与气温和降水之间的关系。结果表明：（1）米仓山地区植被生长季始期（SOS）主要集中在第80-110d,海拔每上升100m,SOS大约推迟0.6d;生长季末期（EOS）主要集中在第250-300d;生长季长度（LOS）主要集中在130-210d。除低海拔区域受人类活动影响物候波动较大外,EOS和LOS随海拔变化存在2000m分界线,其下物候随海拔升高物候明显推迟或缩短,其上物候变化趋于平缓。（2）16a来植被SOS呈提前趋势,提前幅度为0.47d/a,提前的像元占74.03%,其中,达到显著提前的像元占12.21%（P<0.1）;EOS整体呈提前趋势,提前幅度为0.22d/a;LOS略有延长,延长幅度为0.26d/a。（3）区域常绿型森林植被SOS晚于同垂直带的落叶型森林植被;草地、常绿阔叶灌木林SOS提前趋势最明显,变化率分别为-0.80、-0.71d/a;EOS提前趋势最明显的是针阔混交林和落叶阔叶林。（4） SOS主要受3月平均气温和4月降水的影响,3月平均气温升高以及4月降水增加导致SOS提前;EOS主要受10月降水的负向影响。     

中国北方主产地苹果冷热积累变化及其对始花期的影响

开展气候变化背景下苹果冷热积累变化及其对始花期的影响研究,对指导苹果种植及生产具有重要意义。本研究选取山东福山、山西万荣、甘肃西峰和新疆阿克苏代表中国北方苹果主产地,利用1996—2018年红富士苹果的始花期观测资料和逐时气温数据,采用动态模型、生长度小时模型分别计算逐日冷积累量(CP)和热积累量(GDH),并利用偏最小二乘回归法,对逐日冷、热积累量和各地苹果始花期进行相关分析,以明确各地苹果冷、热积累起止日期和积累量,以及冷、热积累期内温度变化对始花期的影响规律。结果表明: 我国北方主产地苹果冷积累时段集中于10月1日前后至2月中下旬或3月中旬,积累量为74.1～89.3 CP;热积累时段集中于1月下旬前后至始花期,积累量为4010～5770 GDH。西峰和阿克苏冷积累期内平均气温每升高1 ℃,冷积累量将分别增加3.8和5.0 CP;各地热积累期内平均气温每升高1 ℃,热积累量将增加725～967 GDH。与冷积累期内温度变化的影响效应相比,热积累期内温度变化主控我国北方主产地苹果始花期,且气候变暖总体有利于冷积累期内平均气温较低地区的苹果开花和生产。     

Population dynamics of Oligonychus afrasiaticus in the southern Arava Valley of Israel in relation to date fruit characteristics and climatic conditions

1 Oligonychus afrasiaticus, the old world date mite, is a serious pest of dates in North Africa and the Near East, including Israel. It attacks and rapidly develops when the fruit is young and green. Mite phenology is affected by date cultivar, but the relationship between fruit characteristics and mite population development is unknown. 2 We report that mite establishment on the main cultivars grown in Israel, ‘Medjool’, ‘Barhi’ and ‘Deglet Noor’, began only when the water content of the fruit increased to ≥ 84%. Fruit bunch architecture and resistance to penetration, as well as sugar composition and content, were not key factors in mite establishment. 3 Later in the season, when total sugar levels reached ≥ 150 mg/g fresh fruit weight, total soluble solids comprised 15% and water content decreased to ≤ 75%, mite populations declined. 4 Yearly climatic variations could be responsible for phenological asynchrony between the pest and fruit development.     

The timing of birds' breeding seasons: a review of experiments that manipulated timing of breeding

Reproductive success usually declines in the course of the season, which may be a direct effect of breeding time, an effect of quality (individuals with high phenotypic or environmental quality breeding early), or a combination of the two. Being able to distinguish between these possibilities is crucial when trying to understand individual variation in annual routines, for instance when to breed, moult and migrate. We review experiments with free-living birds performed to distinguish between the 'timing' and 'quality' hypothesis. 'Clean' manipulation of breeding time seems impossible, and we therefore discuss strong and weak points of different manipulation techniques. We find that the qualitative results were independent of manipulation technique (inducing replacement clutches versus cross-fostering early and late clutches). Given that the two techniques differ strongly in demands made on the birds, this suggests that potential experimental biases are limited. Overall, the evidence indicated that date and quality are both important, depending on fitness component and species, although evidence for the date hypothesis was found more frequently. We expected both effects to be prevalent, since only if date per se is important, does an incentive exist for high-quality birds to breed early. We discuss mechanisms mediating the seasonal decline in reproductive success, and distinguish between effects of absolute date and relative date, for instance timing relative to seasonal environmental fluctuations or conspecifics. The latter is important at least in some cases, suggesting that the optimal breeding time may be frequency dependent, but this has been little studied. A recurring pattern among cross-fostering studies was that delay experiments provided evidence for the quality hypothesis, while advance experiments provided evidence for the date hypothesis. This indicates that late pairs are constrained from producing a clutch earlier in the season, presumably by the fitness costs this would entail. This provides us with a paradox: evidence for the date hypothesis leads us to conclude that quality is important for the ability to breed early.     

高寒矮生嵩草草甸主要植物物候特征对养分和水分添加的响应

植物物候特征对环境条件的季节和年际变化具有较强的指示作用, 因此研究植物物候特征对环境条件变化的响应, 对理解植物和环境之间的相互作用关系、植物的适应机制和生存策略, 以及应对全球变化都具有重要的意义。该研究基于2009-2011年高寒矮生嵩草(Kobresia humilis)草甸养分水分控制实验的植物物候观测数据资料, 采用巢式方差分析、物候指数和聚类分析方法, 开展了高寒矮生嵩草草甸主要植物物候特征对养分和水分添加的响应研究。结果表明: (1)养分添加处理之间植物返青期和枯黄期均无显著差异, 但养分添加中氮磷处理对主要物种作用较明显, 使莎草科、禾本科、杂类草主要代表植物的返青期和枯黄期推迟。(2)增雪处理效应明显, 主要优势物种无论是何种养分添加, 在增雪处理后均表现出花期物候提前的趋势(p < 0.01), 同时增雪处理使杂类草植物返青期显著提前(p < 0.05)。增水处理对植物的作用效果并不一致, 其中垂穗披碱草(Elymus nutans)和双柱头藨草(Scirpus distigmaticus)的枯黄期显著推迟(p < 0.05), 而杂类草枯黄期提前。(3)养分添加后, 不同物种的物候特征表现出显著差异(p < 0.01), 例如雪白委陵菜(Potentilla nivea)枯黄期显著推迟(p < 0.05), 而双柱头藨草的枯黄期显著提前(p < 0.05), 但物种对养分添加响应的差异以植物类群为单位, 禾本科植物表现为返青期推迟, 而莎草科植物表现为返青期提前。(4)矮生嵩草草甸主要植物营养生长期与果后营养期持续天数之间呈负相关关系, 主要植物物候特征经聚类分析可以分为3个类群, 3个类群经氮磷钾、钾和氮钾三个养分添加处理后植物物候特征变化较大。研究表明, 高寒矮生嵩草草甸植物物候特征在物种水平响应和水分添加后的响应表现出较大差异, 而对养分添加的响应不显著。     

北京地区木本春季物候特征与生物学特性的关系

植物物候是植物生活史中的重要性状,也是指示气候与自然环境变化的重要指标,现已成为全球变化领域的研究热点之一。传统物候研究多假设物候由气候因素决定,如气温、降水、光照等,并主要从植物物候的年际变化角度探讨了气候因素对物候特征的影响。然而,不同物种的物候存在较大差异表明植物物候还与自身生物学特性（如系统发育和功能性状）有关,但植物生物学特性如何影响植物物候仍缺乏深入研究。基于北京地区44种木本植物1965-2018年的展叶始期和开花始期观测资料,以展叶始期和开花始期的3类物候特征（平均物候期、物候对温度的响应敏感度和物候期的积温需求）为例,探究植物物候特征与系统发育和功能性状的关系。首先,利用系统发育信号Blomberg’s K和进化模型检验植物物候特征是否具有系统发育保守性,并通过系统发育信号表征曲线直观表达植物物候特征的进化模式;之后,利用广义估计方程分析植物生活型、传粉型与物候特征的关系,以揭示不同植物的资源利用方式及生存策略的差异。研究发现：（1）除展叶始期的温度敏感度外,其余物候特征的进化均受随机遗传漂变和自然选择力的共同作用,可推断物候特征具有系统发育保守性,即亲缘关系越近的物种物候特征越相似。（2）开花始期的系统发育信号强度比展叶始期更大,表明繁殖物候的系统发育可能比生长物候更保守。（3）植物展叶始期及其积温需求与生活型密切相关。灌木比乔木的展叶时间早、积温需求少。植物开花始期与传粉型相关,风媒植物开花显著早于虫媒植物。研究成果有助于深入理解物候变化的生物学机制,对于丰富物候学的理论研究有重要意义,同时对植物保护也具有重要的指导价值。     

Seasonal decline in provisioning effort and nestling mass of Blue Tits Cyanistes caeruleus: experimental support for the parent quality hypothesis

A common feature of many birds breeding in seasonal environments is that fitness‐related parameters such as nestling mass or survival decline as the breeding season progresses. Consequently, there is a tendency for early breeders to have better reproductive performance than individuals breeding later in the season. This variation could be caused by factors associated with the date of laying, such as changing environmental conditions (date hypothesis), or by differences in parental quality between early and late breeders (parent quality hypothesis). To evaluate the relative importance of both hypotheses, we manipulated hatch dates of Blue Tits Cyanistes caeruleus by exchanging clutches with different incubation stages and assessed the impact on nestling mass, nestling diet and provisioning rates. Mean nestling mass declined significantly over the season. This was the combined result of differences in parental quality, which dominated in the early part of the season, and the influence of hatching date (date effect per se), which prevailed later in the season. Nestling diet composition was apparently uninfluenced by the manipulation, suggesting that deteriorating food supplies are the primary reason for the seasonal variation in the nestling diet. Counter to the date hypothesis, delayed parents did not feed their young less than control pairs did, but in fact exhibited higher provisioning rates. Our results suggest that in this population, parental quality seems to constrain post‐hatching reproductive performance and such intrinsic limitations may help to explain why certain individuals breed later.     

Change in flowering dates of Japanese Cherry Blossoms (P. yedoensis Mats.) on campus of Wuhan University and its relationship with variability of winter temperature

Change in first-flowering dates and its correlation with climatic factors was mainly analyzed, and several predicting models for the first-flowering dates were established based on the flowering dates of Japanese Cherry Blossoms (P. yedoensis Mats.) during 1947–2008 on campus of Wuhan University and the climatic data in the same period. The results show that: 1) in 1947–2000, the first-flowering dates advanced with 2.17 d per decade, with an overall trend of 11.72 d in the 54 years, the fading dates were postponed for only 1.83 d in the same period, and the florescence duration increased by 13.55 d; 2) the first-flowering dates have negative correlation with monthly average temperature from December to March. The increasing winter (from December to February) temperature is the main reason for the advancement of the first-flowering dates. Per 1°C increase in average temperature of February and wintertime makes the first-flowering dates advance by 1.66 d and 2.86 d, respectively; 3) some statistical models of the first-flowering dates were built up with average temperature of February and wintertime based on the data during 1947–2000, and they are detected independently during 2001–2008.     

A matter of timing: changes in the first date of arrival and last date of departure of Australian migratory birds

Although there is substantial evidence that Northern Hemisphere species have responded to climatic change over the last few decades, there is little documented evidence that Southern Hemisphere species have responded in the same way. Here, we report that Australian migratory birds have undergone changes in the first arrival date (FAD) and last date of departure (LDD) of a similar magnitude as species from the Northern Hemisphere. We compiled data on arrival and departure of migratory birds in south‐east Australia since 1960 from the published literature, Bird Observer Reports, and personal observations from bird watchers. Data on the FAD for 24 species and the LDD for 12 species were analyzed. Sixteen species were short‐ to middle‐distance species arriving at their breeding grounds, seven were long‐distance migrants arriving at their nonbreeding grounds, and one was a middle‐distance migrant also arriving at its nonbreeding ground. For 12 species, we gathered data from more than one location, enabling us to assess the consistency of intraspecific trends at different locations. Regressions of climate variables against year show that across south‐east Australia average annual maximum and minimum temperatures have increased by 0.17°C and 0.13°C decade^?1 since 1960, respectively. Over this period there has been an average advance in arrival of 3.5 days decade^?1; 16 of the 45 time‐series (representing 12 of the 24 species studied) showed a significant trend toward earlier arrival, while only one time‐series showed a significant delay. Conversely, there has been an average delay in departure of 5.1 days decade^?1; four of the 21 departure time‐series (four species) showed a significant trend toward later departure, while one species showed a significant trend toward earlier departure. However, differences emerge between the arrival and departure of short‐ to middle‐distance species visiting south‐east Australia to breed compared with long‐distance species that spend their nonbreeding period here. On average, short‐ to middle‐distance migrants have arrived at their breeding grounds 3.1 days decade^?1 earlier and delayed departure by 8.1 days decade^?1, thus extending the time spent in their breeding grounds by ～11 days decade^?1. The average advance in arrival at the nonbreeding grounds of long‐distance migrants is 6.8 days decade^?1. These species, however, have also advanced departure by an average of 6.9 days decade^?1. Hence, the length of stay has not changed but rather, the timing of events has advanced. The patterns of change in FAD and LDD of Australian migratory birds are of a similar magnitude to changes undergone by Northern Hemisphere species, and add further evidence that the modest warming experienced over the past few decades has already had significant biological impacts on a global scale.     

The role of plant phenology in stomatal ozone flux modeling

Plant phenology plays a pivotal role in the climate system as it regulates the gas exchange between the biosphere and the atmosphere. The uptake of ozone by forest is estimated through several meteorological variables and a specific function describing the beginning and the termination of plant growing season; actually, in many risk assessment studies, this function is based on a simple latitude and topography model. In this study, using two satellite datasets, we apply and compare six methods to estimate the start and the end dates of the growing season across a large region covering all Europe for the year 2011. Results show a large variability between the green‐up and dormancy dates estimated using the six different methods, with differences greater than one month. However, interestingly, all the methods display a common spatial pattern in the uptake of ozone by forests with a marked change in the magnitude, up to 1.9 TgO₃/year, and corresponding to a difference of 25% in the amount of ozone that enters the leaves. Our results indicate that improved estimates of ozone fluxes require a better representation of plant phenology in the models used for O₃ risk assessment.     

Changes of the Flowering Time of Trees in Spring by Climate Change in Seoul,South Korea

Flowering onset has attracted much attention in ecological research as an important indicator of climate change. Generally, warmer temperatures advance flowering onset. The effect of climate warming on flowering onset is more pronounced in spring because the difference between atmospheric and water temperatures creates more rapid convection than in other seasons. We analyzed the correlation between 73 species of spring woody plants in Hongneung Arboretum in Seoul, South Korea and the spring minimum temperature and average precipitation over the past 50 years (1968–2018). The spring minimum temperature and average precipitation have increased over the past 50 years, resulting in the advance of the first flowing date (FFD) in all 73 species by 8.5 days on average. A comparison of FFD changes over time by dividing the survey period into three time periods confirmed the advance of the FFD in 50 species (68% of investigated species) by 11.1 days on average in both Period 2 (1999–2008) and Period 3 (2009–2018) relative to Period 1 (1968–1975). Additionally, a delay of the FFD by 3.2 days on average was observed in 8 species. The FFD of Lonicera chrysantha (Caprifoliaceae) advanced by over 40 days and was highly correlated with the increased spring minimum temperature. Analysis of the sensitivity of plant responses to climate change revealed that a temperature rise of 1°C was associated with an FFD advance of 1.2 days in all species. The species that was most sensitive to temperature change was Spiraea pubescens for. leiocarpa (Rosaceae), whose FFD advanced by 4.7 days per 1°C temperature rise. Each increase in precipitation by 1 mm was found to result in a 0.1-day advance of the FFD of all species. Prunus tomentosa (Rosaceae) was the most sensitive species, that advanced by 2.6 days for each 1 mm increase in precipitation. Thus, for all species, the FFD was more sensitive to the change in temperature than in precipitation. Assuming that the current greenhouse gas (GHGs) emission levels or atmospheric CO₂ concentration is maintained, Seoul’s spring minimum temperature is projected to rise by 2.7°C over the next 50 years. Accordingly, considering only the global temperature change, the mean FFD of the study’s 73 species is projected to advance by an additional 3.4 days.