Modelling the evolution and spread of HIV immune escape mutants

During infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), immune pressure from cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTLs) selects for viral mutants that confer escape from CTL recognition. These escape variants can be transmitted between individuals where, depending upon their cost to viral fitness and the CTL responses made by the recipient, they may revert. The rates of within-host evolution and their concordant impact upon the rate of spread of escape mutants at the population level are uncertain. Here we present a mathematical model of within-host evolution of escape mutants, transmission of these variants between hosts and subsequent reversion in new hosts. The model is an extension of the well-known SI model of disease transmission and includes three further parameters that describe host immunogenetic heterogeneity and rates of within host viral evolution. We use the model to explain why some escape mutants appear to have stable prevalence whilst others are spreading through the population. Further, we use it to compare diverse datasets on CTL escape, highlighting where different sources agree or disagree on within-host evolutionary rates. The several dozen CTL epitopes we survey from HIV-1 gag, RT and nef reveal a relatively sedate rate of evolution with average rates of escape measured in years and reversion in decades. For many epitopes in HIV, occasional rapid within-host evolution is not reflected in fast evolution at the population level.     

Modelling the spread of HIV immune escape mutants in a vaccinated population

Because cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTLs) have been shown to play a role in controlling human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and because CTL-based simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) vaccines have proved effective in non-human primates, one goal of HIV vaccine design is to elicit effective CTL responses in humans. Such a vaccine could improve viral control in patients who later become infected, thereby reducing onwards transmission and enhancing life expectancy in the absence of treatment. The ability of HIV to evolve mutations that evade CTLs and the ability of these 'escape mutants' to spread amongst the population poses a challenge to the development of an effective and robust vaccine. We present a mathematical model of within-host evolution and between-host transmission of CTL escape mutants amongst a population receiving a vaccine that elicits CTL responses to multiple epitopes. Within-host evolution at each epitope is represented by the outgrowth of escape mutants in hosts who restrict the epitope and their reversion in hosts who do not restrict the epitope. We use this model to investigate how the evolution and spread of escape mutants could affect the impact of a vaccine. We show that in the absence of escape, such a vaccine could markedly reduce the prevalence of both infection and disease in the population. However the impact of such a vaccine could be significantly abated by CTL escape mutants, especially if their selection in hosts who restrict the epitope is rapid and their reversion in hosts who do not restrict the epitope is slow. We also use the model to address whether a vaccine should span a broad or narrow range of CTL epitopes and target epitopes restricted by rare or common HLA types. We discuss the implications and limitations of our findings.     

HIV evolution: CTL escape mutation and reversion after transmission

Within-patient HIV evolution reflects the strong selection pressure driving viral escape from cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) recognition. Whether this intrapatient accumulation of escape mutations translates into HIV evolution at the population level has not been evaluated. We studied over 300 patients drawn from the B- and C-clade epidemics, focusing on human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles HLA-B57 and HLA-B5801, which are associated with long-term HIV control and are therefore likely to exert strong selection pressure on the virus. The CTL response dominating acute infection in HLA-B57/5801-positive subjects drove positive selection of an escape mutation that reverted to wild-type after transmission to HLA-B57/5801-negative individuals. A second escape mutation within the epitope, by contrast, was maintained after transmission. These data show that the process of accumulation of escape mutations within HIV is not inevitable. Complex epitope- and residue-specific selection forces, including CTL-mediated positive selection pressure and virus-mediated purifying selection, operate in tandem to shape HIV evolution at the population level.     

Marked epitope- and allele-specific differences in rates of mutation in human immunodeficiency type 1 (HIV-1) Gag, Pol, and Nef cytotoxic T-lymphocyte epitopes in acute/early HIV-1 infection

During acute human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection, early host cellular immune responses drive viral evolution. The rates and extent of these mutations, however, remain incompletely characterized. In a cohort of 98 individuals newly infected with HIV-1 subtype B, we longitudinally characterized the rates and extent of HLA-mediated escape and reversion in Gag, Pol, and Nef using a rational definition of HLA-attributable mutation based on the analysis of a large independent subtype B data set. We demonstrate rapid and dramatic HIV evolution in response to immune pressures that in general reflect established cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) response hierarchies in early infection. On a population level, HLA-driven evolution was observed in approximately 80% of published CTL epitopes. Five of the 10 most rapidly evolving epitopes were restricted by protective HLA alleles (HLA-B*13/B*51/B*57/B*5801; P = 0.01), supporting the importance of a strong early CTL response in HIV control. Consistent with known fitness costs of escape, B*57-associated mutations in Gag were among the most rapidly reverting positions upon transmission to non-B*57-expressing individuals, whereas many other HLA-associated polymorphisms displayed slow or negligible reversion. Overall, an estimated minimum of 30% of observed substitutions in Gag/Pol and 60% in Nef were attributable to HLA-associated escape and reversion events. Results underscore the dominant role of immune pressures in driving early within-host HIV evolution. Dramatic differences in escape and reversion rates across codons, genes, and HLA restrictions are observed, highlighting the complexity of viral adaptation to the host immune response.     

Evolution of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 cytotoxic T-lymphocyte epitopes: fitness-balanced escape

CD8(+) cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) are strong mediators of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) control, yet HIV-1 frequently mutates to escape CTL recognition. In an analysis of sequences in the Los Alamos HIV-1 database, we show that emerging CTL escape mutations were more often present at lower frequencies than the amino acid(s) that they replaced. Furthermore, epitopes that underwent escape contained amino acid sites of high variability, whereas epitopes persisting at high frequencies lacked highly variable sites. We therefore infer that escape mutations are likely to be associated with weak functional constraints on the viral protein. This was supported by an extensive analysis of one subject for whom all escape mutations within defined CTL epitopes were studied and by an analysis of all reported escape mutations of defined CTL epitopes in the HIV Immunology Database. In one of these defined epitopes, escape mutations involving the substitution of amino acids with lower database frequencies occurred, and the epitope soon reverted back to the sensitive form. We further show that this escape mutation substantially diminished viral fitness in in vitro competition assays. Coincident with the reversion in vivo, we observed the fixation of a mutation 3 amino acids C terminal to the epitope, coincident with the ablation of the corresponding CTL response. The C-terminal mutation did not restore replication fitness reduced by the escape mutation in the epitope and by itself had little effect on replication fitness. Therefore, this C-terminal mutation presumably impaired the processing and presentation of the epitope. Finally, for one persistent epitope, CTL cross-reactivity to a mutant form may have suppressed the mutant to undetected levels, whereas for two other persistent epitopes, each of two mutants showed poor cross-reactivity and appeared in the subject at later time points. Thus, a viral dynamic exists between the advantage of immune escape, peptide cross-reactivity, and the disadvantage of lost replication fitness, with the balance playing an important role in determining whether a CTL epitope will persist or decline during infection.     

HLA class I-driven evolution of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 subtype c proteome: immune escape and viral load

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) mutations that confer escape from cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) recognition can sometimes result in lower viral fitness. These mutations can then revert upon transmission to a new host in the absence of CTL-mediated immune selection pressure restricted by the HLA alleles of the prior host. To identify these potentially critical recognition points on the virus, we assessed HLA-driven viral evolution using three phylogenetic correction methods across full HIV-1 subtype C proteomes from a cohort of 261 South Africans and identified amino acids conferring either susceptibility or resistance to CTLs. A total of 558 CTL-susceptible and -resistant HLA-amino acid associations were identified and organized into 310 immunological sets (groups of individual associations related to a single HLA/epitope combination). Mutations away from seven susceptible residues, including four in Gag, were associated with lower plasma viral-RNA loads (q < 0.2 [where q is the expected false-discovery rate]) in individuals with the corresponding HLA alleles. The ratio of susceptible to resistant residues among those without the corresponding HLA alleles varied in the order Vpr > Gag > Rev > Pol > Nef > Vif > Tat > Env > Vpu (Fisher's exact test; P < or = 0.0009 for each comparison), suggesting the same ranking of fitness costs by genes associated with CTL escape. Significantly more HLA-B (chi(2); P = 3.59 x 10(-5)) and HLA-C (chi(2); P = 4.71 x 10(-6)) alleles were associated with amino acid changes than HLA-A, highlighting their importance in driving viral evolution. In conclusion, specific HIV-1 residues (enriched in Vpr, Gag, and Rev) and HLA alleles (particularly B and C) confer susceptibility to the CTL response and are likely to be important in the development of vaccines targeted to decrease the viral load.     

Phylogenetic Dependency Networks: Inferring Patterns of CTL Escape and Codon Covariation in HIV-1 Gag

HIV avoids elimination by cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTLs) through the evolution of escape mutations. Although there is mounting evidence that these escape pathways are broadly consistent among individuals with similar human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class I alleles, previous population-based studies have been limited by the inability to simultaneously account for HIV codon covariation, linkage disequilibrium among HLA alleles, and the confounding effects of HIV phylogeny when attempting to identify HLA-associated viral evolution. We have developed a statistical model of evolution, called a phylogenetic dependency network, that accounts for these three sources of confounding and identifies the primary sources of selection pressure acting on each HIV codon. Using synthetic data, we demonstrate the utility of this approach for identifying sites of HLA-mediated selection pressure and codon evolution as well as the deleterious effects of failing to account for all three sources of confounding. We then apply our approach to a large, clinically-derived dataset of Gag p17 and p24 sequences from a multicenter cohort of 1144 HIV-infected individuals from British Columbia, Canada (predominantly HIV-1 clade B) and Durban, South Africa (predominantly HIV-1 clade C). The resulting phylogenetic dependency network is dense, containing 149 associations between HLA alleles and HIV codons and 1386 associations among HIV codons. These associations include the complete reconstruction of several recently defined escape and compensatory mutation pathways and agree with emerging data on patterns of epitope targeting. The phylogenetic dependency network adds to the growing body of literature suggesting that sites of escape, order of escape, and compensatory mutations are largely consistent even across different clades, although we also identify several differences between clades. As recent case studies have demonstrated, understanding both the complexity and the consistency of immune escape has important implications for CTL-based vaccine design. Phylogenetic dependency networks represent a major step toward systematically expanding our understanding of CTL escape to diverse populations and whole viral genes.     

Epitope escape mutation and decay of human immunodeficiency virus type 1-specific CTL responses

To investigate possible mechanisms behind HIV-1 escape from CTL, we performed detailed longitudinal analysis of Gag (SLYNTVATL)- and RT (ILKEPVHGV)-specific CTL responses and plasma epitope sequences in five individuals. Among those with CTL against consensus epitope sequences, epitope mutations developed over several years, invariably followed by decay of the CTL targeting the consensus epitopes. The maturation state of the CTL varied among individuals and appeared to affect the rate of epitope mutation and CTL decay, despite similar IFN-gamma production. Escape mutations were oligoclonal, suggesting fitness constraints. The timing of escape indicated that the net selective advantage of escape mutants was slight, further underscoring the importance of understanding factors determining selective pressure and viral fitness in vivo. Our data show surprisingly consistent decay of CTL responses after epitope escape mutation and provide insight into potential mechanisms for both immune failure and shifting CTL specificities.     

An integrative bioinformatic approach for studying escape mutations in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 gag in the Pumwani Sex Worker Cohort

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) is able to evade the host cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) response through a variety of escape avenues. Epitopes that are presented to CTLs are first processed in the presenting cell in several steps, including proteasomal cleavage, transport to the endoplasmic reticulum, binding by the HLA molecule, and finally presentation to the T-cell receptor. An understanding of the potential of the virus to escape CTL responses can aid in designing an effective vaccine. To investigate such a potential, we analyzed HIV-1 gag from 468 HIV-1-positive Kenyan women by using several bioinformatic approaches that allowed the identification of positively selected amino acids in the HIV-1 gag region and study of the effects that these mutations could have on the various stages of antigen processing. Correlations between positively selected residues and mean CD4 counts also allowed study of the effect of mutation on HIV disease progression. A number of mutations that could create or destroy proteasomal cleavage sites or reduce binding affinity of the transport antigen processing protein, effectively hindering epitope presentation, were identified. Many mutations correlated with the presence of specific HLA alleles and with lower or higher CD4 counts. For instance, the mutation V190I in subtype A1-infected individuals is associated with HLA-B*5802 (P = 4.73 x 10(-4)), a rapid-progression allele according to other studies, and also to a decreased mean CD4 count (P = 0.019). Thus, V190I is a possible HLA escape mutant. This method classifies many positively selected mutations across the entire gag region according to their potential for immune escape and their effect on disease progression.     

Rapid HIV-1 Disease Progression in Individuals Infected with a Virus Adapted to Its Host Population

HIV-1 escape from CTL is predictable based on the Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) class I alleles expressed by the host. As such, HIV-1 sequences circulating in a population of hosts will harbor escape mutations specific to the HLA alleles of that population. In theory, this should increase the frequency of escape mutation transmission to persons expressing the restricting HLA allele, thereby compromising host immunity to the incoming HIV-1 strain. However, the clinical impact of infection with HIV-1 containing immune escape mutations has not conclusively been demonstrated. Japan’s population features limited HLA diversity which is driving population-level HIV adaptation: for example, >60% of Japanese express HLA-A*24:02 and its associated Nef-Y135F escape mutation represents the population consensus. As such, Japan is an ideal population in which to examine this phenomenon. Here, we combine genetic and immunological analyses to identify A*24:02-positive individuals likely to have been infected with Y135F-containing HIV-1. Over a ~5 year follow-up, these individuals exhibited significantly lower CD4 counts compared to individuals inferred to have been infected with wild-type HIV-1. Our results support a significant negative clinical impact of pathogen adaptation to host pressures at the population level.     

Between-host evolution of cytotoxic T-lymphocyte epitopes in human immunodeficiency virus type 1: an approach based on phylogenetically independent comparisons

In human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), mutations that escape from cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) recognition have been documented, and sequence analyses have provided indirect support for the hypothesis that natural selection has favored CTL escape mutants within an infected host. In spite of such evidence for within-host selection by CTL, it has been more difficult to determine how natural selection by host CTL has influenced long-term evolution of HIV-1. We used statistical analysis of published HIV-1 genomic sequences to examine the role of natural selection in between-host evolution of CTL epitopes. Based on a phylogenetic analysis, we identified 21 pairs of closely related genomes isolated from different hosts and examined the pattern of nucleotide substitution in genomic regions encoding well-characterized CTL epitopes. The results revealed that certain CTL epitopes have been subject to repeated positive selection across the population, while others are generally conserved. Furthermore, evidence of positive selection was associated with divergence from the canonical epitope sequence and with an enhanced frequency of convergent amino acid sequence changes in CTL epitopes. The results support the hypothesis that CTL-driven selection has been a major factor in the long-term evolution of HIV-1.     

HLA-Associated Immune Pressure on Gag Protein in CRF01_AE-Infected Individuals and Its Association with Plasma Viral Load

Background

The human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-restricted cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) immune response is one of the major factors determining the genetic diversity of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). There are few population-based analyses of the amino acid variations associated with the host HLA type and their clinical relevance for the Asian population. Here, we identified HLA-associated polymorphisms in the HIV-1 CRF01_AE Gag protein in infected married couples, and examined the consequences of these HLA-selected mutations after transmission to HLA-unmatched recipients.

Methodology/Principal Findings

One hundred sixteen HIV-1-infected couples were recruited at a government hospital in northern Thailand. The 1.7-kb gag gene was amplified and directly sequenced. We identified 56 associations between amino acid variations in Gag and HLA alleles. Of those amino acid variations, 35 (62.5%) were located within or adjacent to regions reported to be HIV-specific CTL epitopes restricted by the relevant HLA. Interestingly, a significant number of HLA-associated amino acid variations appear to be unique to the CRF01_AE-infected Thai population. Variations in the capsid protein (p24) had the strongest associations with the viral load and CD4 cell count. The mutation and reversion rates after transmission to a host with a different HLA environment varied considerably. The p24 T242N variant escape from B57/58 CTL had a significant impact on the HIV-1 viral load of CRF01_AE-infected patients.

Conclusions/Significance

HLA-associated amino acid mutations and the CTL selection pressures on the p24 antigen appear to have the most significant impact on HIV replication in a CRF01_AE-infected Asian population. HLA-associated mutations with a low reversion rate accumulated as a footprint in this Thai population. The novel HLA-associated mutations identified in this study encourage us to acquire more extensive information about the viral dynamics of HLA-associated amino acid polymorphisms in a given population as effective CTL vaccine targets.     

Structured Observations Reveal Slow HIV-1 CTL Escape

The existence of viral variants that escape from the selection pressures imposed by cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTLs) in HIV-1 infection is well documented, but it is unclear when they arise, with reported measures of the time to escape in individuals ranging from days to years. A study of participants enrolled in the SPARTAC (Short Pulse Anti-Retroviral Therapy at HIV Seroconversion) clinical trial allowed direct observation of the evolution of CTL escape variants in 125 adults with primary HIV-1 infection observed for up to three years. Patient HLA-type, longitudinal CD8+ T-cell responses measured by IFN-γ ELISpot and longitudinal HIV-1 gag, pol, and nef sequence data were used to study the timing and prevalence of CTL escape in the participants whilst untreated. Results showed that sequence variation within CTL epitopes at the first time point (within six months of the estimated date of seroconversion) was consistent with most mutations being transmitted in the infecting viral strain rather than with escape arising within the first few weeks of infection. Escape arose throughout the first three years of infection, but slowly and steadily. Approximately one third of patients did not drive any new escape in an HLA-restricted epitope in just under two years. Patients driving several escape mutations during these two years were rare and the median and modal numbers of new escape events in each patient were one and zero respectively. Survival analysis of time to escape found that possession of a protective HLA type significantly reduced time to first escape in a patient (p = 0.01), and epitopes escaped faster in the face of a measurable CD8+ ELISpot response (p = 0.001). However, even in an HLA matched host who mounted a measurable, specific, CD8+ response the average time before the targeted epitope evolved an escape mutation was longer than two years.     

Widespread impact of HLA restriction on immune control and escape pathways of HIV-1

The promiscuous presentation of epitopes by similar HLA class I alleles holds promise for a universal T-cell-based HIV-1 vaccine. However, in some instances, cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) restricted by HLA alleles with similar or identical binding motifs are known to target epitopes at different frequencies, with different functional avidities and with different apparent clinical outcomes. Such differences may be illuminated by the association of similar HLA alleles with distinctive escape pathways. Using a novel computational method featuring phylogenetically corrected odds ratios, we systematically analyzed differential patterns of immune escape across all optimally defined epitopes in Gag, Pol, and Nef in 2,126 HIV-1 clade C-infected adults. Overall, we identified 301 polymorphisms in 90 epitopes associated with HLA alleles belonging to shared supertypes. We detected differential escape in 37 of 38 epitopes restricted by more than one allele, which included 278 instances of differential escape at the polymorphism level. The majority (66 to 97%) of these resulted from the selection of unique HLA-specific polymorphisms rather than differential epitope targeting rates, as confirmed by gamma interferon (IFN-γ) enzyme-linked immunosorbent spot assay (ELISPOT) data. Discordant associations between HLA alleles and viral load were frequently observed between allele pairs that selected for differential escape. Furthermore, the total number of associated polymorphisms strongly correlated with average viral load. These studies confirm that differential escape is a widespread phenomenon and may be the norm when two alleles present the same epitope. Given the clinical correlates of immune escape, such heterogeneity suggests that certain epitopes will lead to discordant outcomes if applied universally in a vaccine.     

HLA-driven convergence of HIV-1 viral subtypes B and F toward the adaptation to immune responses in human populations

Background

Cytotoxic T-Lymphocyte (CTL) response drives the evolution of HIV-1 at a host-level by selecting HLA-restricted escape mutations. Dissecting the dynamics of these escape mutations at a population-level would help to understand how HLA-mediated selection drives the evolution of HIV-1.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We undertook a study of the dynamics of HIV-1 CTL-escape mutations by analyzing through statistical approaches and phylogenetic methods the viral gene gag sequenced in plasma samples collected between the years 1987 and 2006 from 302 drug-naïve HIV-positive patients. By applying logistic regression models and after performing correction for multiple test, we identified 22 potential CTL-escape mutations (p-value<0.05; q-value<0.2); 10 of these associations were confirmed in samples biologically independent by a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte-Carlo method. Analyzing their prevalence back in time we found that escape mutations that are the consensus residue in samples collected after 2003 have actually significantly increased in time in one of either B or F subtype until becoming the most frequent residue, while dominating the other viral subtype. Their estimated prevalence in the viral subtype they did not dominate was lower than 30% for the majority of samples collected at the end of the 80''s. In addition, when screening the entire viral region, we found that the 75% of positions significantly changing in time (p<0.05) were located within known CTL epitopes.

Conclusions

Across HIV Gag protein, the rise of polymorphisms from independent origin during the last twenty years of epidemic in our setting was related to an association with an HLA allele. The fact that these mutations accumulated in one of either B or F subtypes have also dominated the other subtype shows how this selection might be causing a convergence of viral subtypes to variants which are more likely to evade the immune response of the population where they circulate.     

Dynamics of immune escape during HIV/SIV infection

Several studies have shown that cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) play an important role in controlling HIV/SIV infection. Notably, the observation of escape mutants suggests a selective pressure induced by the CTL response. However, it remains difficult to assess the definite role of the cellular immune response. We devise a computational model of HIV/SIV infection having a broad cellular immune response targeting different viral epitopes. The CTL clones are stimulated by viral antigen and interact with the virus population through cytotoxic killing of infected cells. Consequently, the virus population reacts through the acquisition of CTL escape mutations. Our model provides realistic virus dynamics and describes several experimental observations. We postulate that inter-clonal competition and immunodominance may be critical factors determining the sequential emergence of escapes. We show that even though the total killing induced by the CTL response can be high, escape rates against a single CTL clone are often slow and difficult to estimate from infrequent sequence measurements. Finally, our simulations show that a higher degree of immunodominance leads to more frequent escape with a reduced control of viral replication but a substantially impaired replicative capacity of the virus. This result suggests two strategies for vaccine design: Vaccines inducing a broad CTL response should decrease the viral load, whereas vaccines stimulating a narrow but dominant CTL response are likely to induce escape but may dramatically reduce the replicative capacity of the virus.     

Integrating genealogical and dynamical modelling to infer escape and reversion rates in HIV epitopes

The rates of escape and reversion in response to selection pressure arising from the host immune system, notably the cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) response, are key factors determining the evolution of HIV. Existing methods for estimating these parameters from cross-sectional population data using ordinary differential equations (ODEs) ignore information about the genealogy of sampled HIV sequences, which has the potential to cause systematic bias and overestimate certainty. Here, we describe an integrated approach, validated through extensive simulations, which combines genealogical inference and epidemiological modelling, to estimate rates of CTL escape and reversion in HIV epitopes. We show that there is substantial uncertainty about rates of viral escape and reversion from cross-sectional data, which arises from the inherent stochasticity in the evolutionary process. By application to empirical data, we find that point estimates of rates from a previously published ODE model and the integrated approach presented here are often similar, but can also differ several-fold depending on the structure of the genealogy. The model-based approach we apply provides a framework for the statistical analysis and hypothesis testing of escape and reversion in population data and highlights the need for longitudinal and denser cross-sectional sampling to enable accurate estimate of these key parameters.     

Correlates of Protective Cellular Immunity Revealed by Analysis of Population-Level Immune Escape Pathways in HIV-1

HLA class I-associated polymorphisms identified at the population level mark viral sites under immune pressure by individual HLA alleles. As such, analysis of their distribution, frequency, location, statistical strength, sequence conservation, and other properties offers a unique perspective from which to identify correlates of protective cellular immunity. We analyzed HLA-associated HIV-1 subtype B polymorphisms in 1,888 treatment-naïve, chronically infected individuals using phylogenetically informed methods and identified characteristics of HLA-associated immune pressures that differentiate protective and nonprotective alleles. Over 2,100 HLA-associated HIV-1 polymorphisms were identified, approximately one-third of which occurred inside or within 3 residues of an optimally defined cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) epitope. Differential CTL escape patterns between closely related HLA alleles were common and increased with greater evolutionary distance between allele group members. Among 9-mer epitopes, mutations at HLA-specific anchor residues represented the most frequently detected escape type: these occurred nearly 2-fold more frequently than expected by chance and were computationally predicted to reduce peptide-HLA binding nearly 10-fold on average. Characteristics associated with protective HLA alleles (defined using hazard ratios for progression to AIDS from natural history cohorts) included the potential to mount broad immune selection pressures across all HIV-1 proteins except Nef, the tendency to drive multisite and/or anchor residue escape mutations within known CTL epitopes, and the ability to strongly select mutations in conserved regions within HIV''s structural and functional proteins. Thus, the factors defining protective cellular immune responses may be more complex than simply targeting conserved viral regions. The results provide new information to guide vaccine design and immunogenicity studies.