Status of the Hen Harrier Circus cyaneus in the UK and Isle of Man in 2016

Capsule: The fifth UK and the Isle of Man survey of Hen Harrier in 2016 showed varying trends by country and region.

Aim: To estimate the size of the breeding Hen Harrier population (with associated 95% confidence intervals) in the UK and Isle of Man, constituent countries and Scottish regions, in 2016 and calculate population change over the five surveys to date.

Methods: Complete surveys were made of all 10-km squares likely to be occupied by breeding Hen Harriers in England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man, using standard methods developed for previous national surveys. In Scotland, self-selected 10-km squares were surveyed by volunteers and a stratified random selection of the remaining 10-km squares within the known breeding range was surveyed.

Results: The UK and Isle of Man Hen Harrier population was estimated at 575 territorial pairs (95% confidence limits, 477–694), a non-significant decline of 13% since 2010 but a significant decline of 24% since 2004. Scotland held the majority (80%) of the population with 460 (359–573) territorial pairs. Elsewhere, 46 territorial pairs were recorded in Northern Ireland, 35 in Wales, 30 in the Isle of Man and four in England. Significant decreases were recorded in the number of pairs in Scotland using grouse moor (?57%) and young forest (?54%).

Conclusion: The combined breeding population of Hen Harriers in the UK and Isle of Man has shown a non-significant decline between 2010 and 2016. There were notable decreases in England, Northern Ireland and Wales since 2010.     

Breeding status of Merlins Falco columbarius in the UK in 2008

Capsule The third national Merlin survey estimated a UK population of 1162 breeding pairs (95% CI: 891–1462).

Aims To estimate the number of breeding Merlins (with associated 95% confidence intervals) in the UK and the four countries (Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland), and to compare these with the relevant estimates from the 1993–94 Merlin survey. In addition, to calculate estimates of change for several regional populations with complete survey coverage during both national surveys.

Methods A subset of 10-km squares (Raptor Study Group squares and randomly sampled squares) was surveyed across the breeding distribution of Merlins in the UK using standardised methods devised during the 1993–94 national survey.

Results The population estimate for Merlins in the UK was 1162 breeding pairs, and in Britain was 1128 pairs (95% CI: 849–1427), which although 13% lower, was not significantly different from the British estimate of the 1993–94 survey. Scotland held the bulk (733 pairs) of the UK Merlin population, and smaller numbers of 301 pairs, 94 pairs and 32 pairs were estimated for England, Wales and Northern Ireland, respectively. The population estimate for Wales may have been biased upwards by low coverage in the south of the country. Marked declines were noted in several regional Merlin populations, particularly in areas of northern England.

Conclusions The 2008 Merlin survey suggests that the population in Britain has remained relatively stable since 1993–94, but with local declines, particularly in northern England. Currently, little is known about important drivers of regional population change in Merlins, but changes in land-use, prey populations and climate are likely to be important factors.     

The population status of breeding Twite Linaria flavirostris in the UK in 2013

Capsule: The second national survey of Twite Linaria flavirostris estimated a UK breeding population of 7831 pairs (95% confidence limits: 5829–10?137) in 2013.

Aims: To estimate the breeding population size of Twite in the UK and constituent countries and to calculate change since the 1999 survey.

Methods: Counts of Twite were made on three visits between May and July across a stratified random sample of 1-km squares in England, Scotland and Wales. In Northern Ireland, a complete census was made of the known range and adjacent 1-km squares with suitable habitat. Field surveys involved walking line transects 200 m apart and, in suitable nesting habitat, making 5-minute stops at 100 m intervals to scan and listen for Twite.

Results: The UK population of Twite was estimated at 7831 pairs (95% CL: 5829–10?137). This was 21% lower but not significantly different from the 1999 survey estimate. Scotland held 98% of the UK population (7640, 95% CL: 5629–9954). There were an estimated 164 pairs (95% CL: 76–297) in England, a significant decline of 72% from 1999. Estimated totals for Wales and Northern Ireland were 16 (95% CL: 10–24) and 18 pairs respectively.

Conclusion: The second national survey suggests a moderate decline in the UK Twite population since 1999 but with considerable variation between countries. Further work is required to understand the drivers of population change across breeding populations.     

Surnames in the Study of Human Biology

Use of surname analysis in human population biology depends on surnames being inherited like genes. In societies that meet this condition, communities with a few surnames at high frequency are the more inbred ones, and marriages between persons of the same surname can be used to estimate rates of inbreeding. Furthermore, the degree of commonality of the surnames of two communities estimates their biological relationship provided that any two persons of the same surname derived it from a common ancestor and that virilocal and uxorilocal migration is equal. Although the assumptions are only partially met, the surname method yields results which correlate with the amount of marital migration and with geographical and historical features. Rare surnames meet the assumptions better than common ones. Documents, both old and new, yield surnames of large numbers of people which can easily be analyzed to show the cumulative effect of marital migration since the establishment of surnames (in England in the Middle Ages). Surnames thus serve to delineate the breeding structure of some human populations over a longer span of time than is usually possible with pedigrees, over a more definite span of time than in genetic studies, and more easily in broad surveys than alternative methods . [isonymy, surnames, inbreeding, coefficient of relationship, England]     

The status of the Hen Harrier,Circus cyaneus,in the UK and Isle of Man in 2010

Capsule The fourth national survey of Hen Harrier showed that the population in the UK and the Isle of Man declined significantly between 2004 and 2010.

Aim To estimate the size of the breeding Hen Harrier population (with associated 95% confidence intervals) in the UK and Isle of Man, constituent countries and Scottish regions, in 2010 and calculate population change since previous surveys in 1998 and 2004.

Methods Complete surveys were made of 10-km squares likely to be occupied by breeding Hen Harriers in England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man, using standard methods developed for previous national surveys. In Scotland, a ‘census’ area was non-randomly selected for survey by volunteers, and randomly selected squares were surveyed in two strata covering the rest of the known range.

Results The UK and Isle of Man Hen Harrier population was estimated at 662 territorial pairs (95% confidence interval (CI): 576–770), a significant decline of 18% since 2004. Scotland holds the bulk (76%) of the population (505 territorial pairs; 95% CI: 417–612), with smaller numbers in Northern Ireland (59 pairs), Wales (57 pairs), the Isle of Man (29 pairs) and England (12 pairs). Declines of 49% and 20% were observed in the Isle of Man and in Scotland, respectively, whereas the Welsh population increased by 33%. A significant decrease was recorded in numbers of pairs using young and mature plantation forest in Scotland.

Conclusion The breeding population of Hen Harriers in the UK and Isle of Man declined between 2004 and 2010. Notable decreases in Scotland and the Isle of Man may be related to habitat change and illegal persecution. Illegal persecution continues to limit the population size of harriers in England to very low levels.     

Excess years of life lost to COVID-19 and other causes of death by sex,neighbourhood deprivation,and region in England and Wales during 2020: A registry-based study

BackgroundDeaths in the first year of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in England and Wales were unevenly distributed socioeconomically and geographically. However, the full scale of inequalities may have been underestimated to date, as most measures of excess mortality do not adequately account for varying age profiles of deaths between social groups. We measured years of life lost (YLL) attributable to the pandemic, directly or indirectly, comparing mortality across geographic and socioeconomic groups.Methods and findingsWe used national mortality registers in England and Wales, from 27 December 2014 until 25 December 2020, covering 3,265,937 deaths. YLLs (main outcome) were calculated using 2019 single year sex-specific life tables for England and Wales. Interrupted time-series analyses, with panel time-series models, were used to estimate expected YLL by sex, geographical region, and deprivation quintile between 7 March 2020 and 25 December 2020 by cause: direct deaths (COVID-19 and other respiratory diseases), cardiovascular disease and diabetes, cancer, and other indirect deaths (all other causes). Excess YLL during the pandemic period were calculated by subtracting observed from expected values. Additional analyses focused on excess deaths for region and deprivation strata, by age-group. Between 7 March 2020 and 25 December 2020, there were an estimated 763,550 (95% CI: 696,826 to 830,273) excess YLL in England and Wales, equivalent to a 15% (95% CI: 14 to 16) increase in YLL compared to the equivalent time period in 2019. There was a strong deprivation gradient in all-cause excess YLL, with rates per 100,000 population ranging from 916 (95% CI: 820 to 1,012) for the least deprived quintile to 1,645 (95% CI: 1,472 to 1,819) for the most deprived. The differences in excess YLL between deprivation quintiles were greatest in younger age groups; for all-cause deaths, a mean of 9.1 years per death (95% CI: 8.2 to 10.0) were lost in the least deprived quintile, compared to 10.8 (95% CI: 10.0 to 11.6) in the most deprived; for COVID-19 and other respiratory deaths, a mean of 8.9 years per death (95% CI: 8.7 to 9.1) were lost in the least deprived quintile, compared to 11.2 (95% CI: 11.0 to 11.5) in the most deprived. For all-cause mortality, estimated deaths in the most deprived compared to the most affluent areas were much higher in younger age groups, but similar for those aged 85 or over. There was marked variability in both all-cause and direct excess YLL by region, with the highest rates in the North West. Limitations include the quasi-experimental nature of the research design and the requirement for accurate and timely recording.ConclusionsIn this study, we observed strong socioeconomic and geographical health inequalities in YLL, during the first calendar year of the COVID-19 pandemic. These were in line with long-standing existing inequalities in England and Wales, with the most deprived areas reporting the largest numbers in potential YLL.

In a registry-based study, Evangelos Kontopantelis and colleagues examine the excess years of life lost to COVID-19 and other causes of death by sex, neighbourhood deprivation and region in England & Wales during 2020.     

The reproductive productivity of the wild rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in southern England on sites with different soils

Rabbit numbers are rising in most parts of Britain. Previous research in southern England has indicated that the rate of increase in spring due to breeding may vary according to soil type. This has serious implications for the likely rate of invasion into new habitats and for planning control operations. To investigate the hypothesis, post-mortem examinations of over 2500 rabbits from 14 sites on sand, chalk or clay were made. The length of the breeding season and percentage of females breeding differed significantly between soil types but litter size and intra-uterine mortality did not. The product of breeding season length and litter size results in an estimate of annual productivity per adult female. This was 22, 20, and 14 young born per female on clay, chalk, and sandy sites, respectively. Rabbits may invade new habitats, such as set-aside, at different rates according to soil type and therefore require different levels of control regime for population management.     

Breeding status of the Red Kite Milvus milvus in Britain in 2000

Capsule The first co-ordinated Red Kite survey across Britain since the reintroduction programme began in 1989, yields 430 breeding pairs.

Aims To estimate the current size and extent of the British breeding population.

Methods A complete census of the populations in the East Midlands, Yorkshire, central and north Scotland was undertaken, while in Wales and the Chilterns, populations were surveyed using a stratified sample of tetrads. Breeding and territorial pairs were identified.

Results The survey indicated that there were 430 breeding pairs in Britain (95% CIs, 372–490). There were 259 breeding pairs in Wales (95% CIs, 200–318) and 109 (95% CIs, 96–124) in the Chilterns. Elsewhere, 16 breeding pairs were located in the East Midlands, three in Yorkshire, seven in central Scotland and 33 in north Scotland. An additional three pairs were recorded in southern England, away from the main population centres.

Conclusion The 2000 survey provides a baseline against which to measure future changes in Red Kite populations in Britain, using standard, repeatable methods.     

Regional trends in coastal wintering waders in Britain

Regional trends in the populations of waders wintering largely on estuaries were analysed using data collected by the Wetland Bird Survey between the winters of 1969/70 and 1995/96 to assess whether trends seen at the national level were repeated across regions of Britain. Not all were. Over this period, the numbers of seven of the 12 species studied increased in south and southeast England, but remained static or declined in southwest England and south Wales. Possible explanations for this are proposed. Increases in the number of Curlews Numenius arquata in the north and northeast of Scotland occurred after 1981/82, when the species stopped being a legal quarry species. A rapid decline in Oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus and Knot Calidris canutus numbers in east England after 1988/89 may be linked to a change in the Wash shell-fisheries. Warmer winters may be making it less essential for birds to winter in the milder west of Britain. In two pairs of regions, northeast and southeast Scotland, and in northwest England/north Wales and northeast England, waders showed similar long-term population changes. The long-term population trends of Oystercatchers in the different regions correlate to those of Ringed Plovers Charadrius hiaticula and Knot, while those of Ringed Plovers are very similar to those of Bar-tailed Godwits Limosa lapponica. In some regions of Britain, the population trends of some species varied a lot between sites, a factor that is an important consideration when determining the size and geographical position of regions for future regional indexing. The present separation of regions based on water catchments and geography has given a useful insight into population changes at a finer spatial scale but it could be improved further with added biological input.     

National survey of tuberculosis notifications in England and Wales 1978--9. Report from the Medical Research Council Tuberculosis and Chest Diseases Unit.

A survey of all tuberculosis notifications in England and Wales for a six-month period showed that 70% of 3732 newly notified, previously untreated patients had respiratory disease only, 23% had non-respiratory disease only, and 7% had both. Fifty-seven per cent of patients were of white and 35% were of Indian subcontinent (Indian, Pakistani, or Bangladeshi) ethnic origin, the latter group contributing over half the cases of non-respiratory disease. The estimated overall annual notification rate per 100 000 population for 1978--9 was 16.4 for England and 13.5 for Wales. The rates differed considerably between the different ethnic groups in England, the highest rates occurring in the Indian and in the Pakistani and Bangladeshi groups and the lowest in the white group; the differences in the non-respiratory rates were the more striking. Nearly a quarter of patients with respiratory disease had large pulmonary lesions, the proportion being higher for the white group than for the Indian subcontinent group. Over half the patients had positive cultures for tubercle bacilli and over a third had positive smears; both proportions were higher for the white group. This survey has identified many of the problems which tuberculosis presents in England and Wales today. These include the substantial number of patients with sputum-positive disease, the considerable variation in the rates in the different ethnic groups, and the not uncommon occurrence of childhood tuberculosis.     

Densities and population estimates of breeding Skylarks Alauda arvensis in Britain in 1997

We present the results of a national survey of breeding Skylarks Alauda arvensis in Britain in 1997 carried out by the British Trust for Ornithology (BTO). Numbers of Skylarks and land-use types were recorded by volunteers in 608 1-km squares, selected using random stratification based on the Institute of Terrestrial Ecology's (ITE) Landscape Classification to avoid over- or under-sampling particular habitat types. The results suggest a maximum national population of around 1000 000 pairs. This agrees extremely well with the national population estimate of around 1046 000 pairs derived from the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) of the BTO/Joint Nature Conservation Committee/Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, and provides further evidence for the robustness of the BBS as a national monitoring scheme for common and widespread species. The figure is approximately half that of the most recent published estimate of 2000 000 in 1988–91. However, the scale of this discrepancy is likely to reflect a bias in Atlas field methodology and site selection since there has been a real decline of approximately 9% since 1990. Arable squares supported the highest densities of Skylarks; 4.6–6.0 pairs per km², and 46–49% of the British breeding population was associated with arable areas. Marginal upland and upland areas supported lower densities but still accounted for approximately 34% of the estimated national breeding population. Differences in density at broad habitat scales were reflected in geographical differences across Britain, with southern and eastern arable regions supporting much higher densities than western and northern ones. At a finer scale, Skylarks occurred at highest densities on, and showed highest habitat preferences for, set-aside and various types of ungrazed grassland. Winter cereal, improved grassland and set-aside held the highest proportion of the Skylark population on farmland in England and Wales; grazed pasture, winter cereals and spring cereals held the highest proportion in Scotland.     

Trends in perinatal mortality attributed to congenital malformations in England and Wales during 1974-81: a study of the variations among regional health authority areas

Analysis of perinatal mortality attributed to congenital malformations in England and Wales, using data from birth and death registration over the years 1974-81 showed significant declines in England and Wales as a whole and in the individual Regional Health Authority (RHA) areas. A greater decrease in death rate from congenital malformations, particularly central nervous system malformations, was seen among stillbirths than among early neonatal deaths. There were marked regional differences in perinatal mortality due to central nervous system malformations over the period but not in cardiovascular system malformations or in other malformations. The highest mortality rates due to central nervous system malformations occurred in the North, North-West, West and South-West of England and in Wales, and the lowest rates in the South and South-East. The larger percentage reductions in the mortality rates were found in most of the regions which had had the highest rates. Possible explanations for the decline in regional rates are suggested.     

The decline of the otter Lutra lutra L. in Britain: an analysis of hunting records and discussion of causes

The records of one pack of Otter Hounds hunting in southwest England are examined for the period 1907 to 1971 as well as the records of all packs active in Britain between 1950 and 1976. The hunting success per unit effort varies from year to year depending on changes in hunting conditions but longer term changes can also be identified. The hunting success of the Culmstock Otter Hounds (hunting in parts of south-west England) increased steadily from 1907 to 1956 but in most of England and south Wales the success rate of the hunts declined rapidly after 1957. There was also a decline in success in northern England and southern Scotland but to a lesser extent, while in north Wales and Eire, there is no evidence for a decline.
These changes are considered to reflect changes in otter populations but the extent of the decline in hunting success (to between 37% and 55% of previous levels in the southern hunts) is probably less than the actual decline in otter numbers. There are no signs of a recovery in the population but indications of a continuing decline up to 1976.
The reason for the increasing population in the first half of the century in south-west England is probably the decrease in persecution since the nineteenth century. A variety of causes for the crash in the late 1950s are considered and the factor most likely to be responsible is the introduction of the dieldrin group of insecticides in 1956. Use of these compounds has been increasingly restricted since 1963 and the possible reasons for the failufe of the otter population to recover are listed but no firm conclusions can be drawn as yet.     

BILL-CLAPPERING DISPLAY IN THE COMMON HERON ARDEA CINEREA

Bill-clappering is shown to be a normal feature of the early phases of the breeding cycle in the Common Heron Ardea cinerea and the circumstances of its occurrence are described.
Possible origins of this behaviour and its probable function are suggested.
An attempt is made to show the development of Ciconiiform display from the integration of more simple patterns. The significance of bill-clappering in the Common Heron appears to lie in the fact that it suggests an ancestral type of behaviour from which the complex display of the White Stork has evolved.     

Is the large‐scale decline of the starling related to local changes in demography?

The decline of one farmland bird, the migratory European starling, has been attributed to both agricultural intensification and farmland abandonment and to factors operating both during the winter and during the breeding season. We analysed population data from thirty‐three Swedish nestbox colonies over more than two decades to determine if the national decline was caused by a common factor affecting all colonies or by local changes in the breeding grounds affecting starling colonies. We found that numbers of breeding starling had declined significantly, but at different rates in different colonies. The local population sizes were affected by previous years’ productivity at both national and local scales, suggesting that changes in habitat quality at both scales could affect local population trends. There were no long‐term trends in reproductive output, but fledgling production was lowest at intermediate years. The local population changes were positively related to local changes in reproductive output, but only when including complete nest‐failures. A relationship between population declines and low mean local productivity was the result of the association between population sizes and reproductive success over time, since decline rates of starlings were not related to the average success during the first part of the study, but to the average success during the later part of the study. The relationship between population change and changes in reproductive output was evident, but fledgling production showed negative density‐dependence. In conclusion this study suggests that the decline of the starling population in Sweden has been affected by processes at small spatial scales during the breeding season affecting reproductive success, but does not exclude an additional role for processes at large spatial scales or outside the breeding season.     

Excess mortality associated with alcohol consumption.

To estimate the excess mortality due to alcohol in England and Wales death rates specific to alcohol consumption that had been derived from five longitudinal studies were applied to the current population divided into categories of alcohol consumption. Because of the J shaped relation between alcohol consumption and death the excess mortality used as a baseline was an alcohol consumption of 1-10 units/week and an adjustment was made for the slight excess mortality of abstainers. The number of excess deaths was obtained by subtracting the number of deaths expected if all the population had the consumption of the lowest risk group; correction for the total observed mortality in the population was made. This resulted in an estimate of 28,000 deaths each year in England and Wales as the excess mortality among people aged 15-74 associated with alcohol consumption.     

Status of the Hen Harrier Circus cyaneus in the UK and the Isle of Man in 1998

A survey of breeding Hen Harriers in the UK and the Isle of Man carried out in 1998 consisted of two parts: a complete census of 10-km squares at the core of the species'known range, and a random sample of 10-km squares across the rest of its known recent range. From this, the UK and Isle of Man breeding population was estimated at 570 territorial pairs: 436 in Scotland, 19 in England, 28 in Wales, 38 in Northern Ireland and 49 on the Isle of Man. Although there was no overall change in the size of the UK and Isle of Man population between 1988–94 and 1998, numbers declined in Orkney and increased in Northern Ireland. In Scotland, numbers increased on grouse moors and decreased in young plantation between 1988–89 and 1998, so that 55% of the population is now found on grouse moor. A similar situation exists in England, but in Northern Ireland 45% of the population was found breeding in open areas within mature conifer plantations in 1998.     

Tuberculosis among immigrants related to length of residence in England and Wales. Report from the British Thoracic and Tuberculosis Association.

Between 1965 and 1971 the notifications of tuberculosis among lifetime residents of the British Isles declined, but among those born in India, Pakistan, and new Commonwealth countries in Africa tuberculosis notifications increased appreciably. Furthermore, the long-held suspicion that among these immigrants the most recent arrivals in England and Wales have higher rates of tuberculosis than those who have lived here longer was confirmed.     

Environmental temperatures and the incidence of food poisoning in England and Wales

The incidence of food poisoning in England and Wales has been increasing for many years and it is now a major public health problem. Superimposed on this general rising trend is a well-established tendency for the number of cases of food poisoning to rise during the summer when warm weather favours the multiplication of pathogenic micro-organisms. This paper shows that weekly notifications of food poisoning in England and Wales are strongly associated with environmental temperatures, but that there are some important time lags in this relationship. The number of cases of food poisoning in a given week was only weakly correlated with the temperature of that week and the one preceding it. This suggests that factors operating close to the point of consumption within or outside the home are not the principal cause of the rise in food poisoning associated with warm summer conditions. There was a much stronger association with temperatures 2–5 weeks earlier, pointing to the importance of factors operating earlier in the food production or distribution system. The results of this study suggest that the food poisoning problem requires action by food producers and distributors as well as by consumers. Received: 15 May 2000 / Revised: 17 October 2000 / Accepted: 18 October 2000     

Incidence of tuberculosis,hepatitis, brucellosis,and shigellosis in British medical laboratory workers.

A retrospective postal survey of 21 000 medical laboratory workers in England and Wales showed 18 new cases of pulmonary tuberculosis in 1971, a five-times increased risk of acquiring the disease compared with the general population. Technicians were at greatest risk, especially if they worked in morbid anatomy departments. Of the 35 cases of hepatitis, the technicians were again the occupational group most likely to acquire the disease. Microbiology staff were twice as likely to report shigellosis as those in other pathology divisions but only one case of brucellosis was reported in the whole laboratory population. A similar survey carried out in 1973 of 3000 Scottish medical laboratory workers corroborates the results from England and Wales. Medical laboratory workers continue to experience a considerable risk of developing an occupationally acquired infection. Improvements in staff safety and health care seem to be necessary.