Dimensions of global population projections: what do we know about future population trends and structures?

The total size of the world population is likely to increase from its current 7 billion to 8–10 billion by 2050. This uncertainty is because of unknown future fertility and mortality trends in different parts of the world. But the young age structure of the population and the fact that in much of Africa and Western Asia, fertility is still very high makes an increase by at least one more billion almost certain. Virtually, all the increase will happen in the developing world. For the second half of the century, population stabilization and the onset of a decline are likely. In addition to the future size of the population, its distribution by age, sex, level of educational attainment and place of residence are of specific importance for studying future food security. The paper provides a detailed discussion of different relevant dimensions in population projections and an evaluation of the methods and assumptions used in current global population projections and in particular those produced by the United Nations and by IIASA.     

Does the house mouse self-regulate its density in maturing sorghum and wheat crops?

1. One of the central questions in population ecology and management is: what regulates population growth? House mouse Mus domesticus L. populations erupt occasionally in grain-growing regions in Australia. This study aimed to determine whether mouse populations are self-regulated in maturing sorghum and wheat crops. This was assessed by examining food supply to mice (i.e. yield) and the relationship between initial mouse density (D(I)) and density at harvest (D(H)). Eight levels of D(I) ranging from 89 to 5555 mice ha(-1) were introduced to sorghum at the hard dough stage and to wheat crops at the milky stage in mouse-proofed pens. D(H) was measured by trapping out mice 49 days after the introduction. 2. There were at least 3.11 tonnes ha(-1) of wheat and 1.85 tonnes ha(-1) of sorghum grain available for mice at harvest. The estimated relationship between D(I) and D(H) was asymptotic exponential, with D(H) initially increasing almost linearly with D(I). When D(I) was above c. 500 mice ha(-1), D(H) increased asymptotically with D(I) and then saturated at c. 3100 mice ha(-1). The asymptotic increases in and saturation of D(H) was due partly to more young mice being born and recruited in pens treated with lower levels of D(I). 3. Our findings indicated that mouse densities in maturing cereal crops were driven by a numerical response of mice to the abundant supply of grain, modified by some unknown self-regulation mechanism that reduced this numerical response of mice at higher mouse densities. The mechanism was possibly spacing behaviours. Although the nature of this self-regulation mechanism is not known our model is, nevertheless, useful for predicting increases and eruptions in mouse population density in sorghum and wheat crops. Understanding the nature of this mechanism may provide insights into population processes that can be exploited in controlling mice in cereal crops.     

Salinity and temperature influence in rotifer life history characteristics

A review of temperature and salinity effects on rotifer population dynamics is presented together with original data of these effects for three clones of Brachionus plicatilis. There is a clear relationship between temperature and the intrinsic rate of increase, r: an increase of temperature — within the natural environmental range — produces an exponential increase of r, and the slope of the response depends on the genotype. The effect of salinity is also genetically dependent; the highest r for each clone is observed at the salinity close to that of its environmental origin. The response of r to temperature is mainly a consequence of the response of the individual rates of development and reproductive timing. The effect of temperature on fecundity (number of descendents per individual life time) is negligible when temperature values are within the normal habitat ranges. On the other hand, salinity seems to affect primarily fecundity. The interaction salinity-temperature may be important in clones or species living in fluctuating environments with positive response to the more frequent combinations found in the corresponding habitats.     

温度对豆荚野螟实验种群的影响

作为豆科蔬菜上的重要害虫 ,豆荚野螟 Maruca testulalis Geyer能够对豆科蔬菜造成严重危害。研究温度对豆荚野螟不同虫期发育的影响 ,可以有利掌握其种群动态 ,以便进行有效控制。研究了室内不同温度条件下豆荚野螟的生长发育情况 ,发现在2 0～ 32℃温度范围内 ,随温度上升发育历期缩短 ;对于不同的生活史阶段 ,豆荚野螟卵、1～ 4龄幼虫、蛹及整个世代受温度影响显著 ;并计算得出完成全世代发育起点温度为 7.84℃ ,有效积温达 4 74 .2 0℃。通过内禀增长率参数的比较 ,认为各参数与温度的关系均达到极显著相关 ,以 2 9～ 32℃为豆荚野螟最适温度     

Influence of temperature on life-table parameters of Stethorus gilvifrons (Mulsant) (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) fed on Tetranychus urticae Koch

The influence of temperature on life-table parameters, fecundity and survivorship of the predatory ladybird, Stethorus gilvifrons , fed on Tetranychus urticae was determined at seven constant temperatures of 15°C, 20°C, 25°C, 28°C, 30°C, 35°C and 40°C. No development was observed at 40°C, thus being regarded as the threshold for the development of S. gilvifrons . The results indicate a significant decrease in male and female longevity with increasing temperature from 15°C to 35°C. The longest and shortest longevity were 18.40 and 12.75 days for males and 17.40 and 8.80 days for females, respectively. The intrinsic rate of natural increase ( r _m ) and the net reproductive rate ( R ₀) of S. gilvifrons linearly increased with increasing temperatures from 15°C to 35°C, while the mean generation time ( T ) and doubling time (DT) decreased linearly within this temperature range. The highest values of r _m (0.240 females/female/day) and R ₀ (59.27 females/female) and the lowest mean generation time (17.01 days) and DT (2.88 days) were recorded at 35°C. The maximum (185.50 eggs) and minimum (25.50 eggs) measurement of total fecundity was also recorded at 35°C and 15°C, respectively. The results indicate that temperature greatly affected fecundity, survivorship and life-table parameters of S. gilvifrons , and that 35°C is a suitable temperature for population growth of this predator.     

Demographic Changes over Thirty Years in a Red Howler Population in Venezuela

During a 30-year span (1969–1999) the annual growth rate of a Venezuelan red howler (Alouatta seniculus) population fluctuated irregularly, but its size increased, remained stable for a short while, and finally declined sharply. The increase took place in three stages, and began as an increase in the size of established groups. The next two stages of population increase were due to the formation of new groups and their subsequent increases in size. These two stages likely occurred because of habitat regeneration, which increased the areas where newly formed groups could establish home ranges. The population decline of 74% was most likely due to disease. However, new groups died out more rapidly than established groups, indicating that food shortages, especially in recently regenerated areas, may also have contributed to the population crash. The food shortages could have been caused by unpredictable periods of drought, which may explain the irregular size fluctuations of the study population. Since many howler species show irregular size fluctuations and sharp declines, their demographic features may reflect adaptations to unpredictable events like droughts and disease epidemics. On this premise we explain the preponderance of unimale groups and female-biased birth sex ratios at low densities and the dispersal of both sexes as adaptations for increasing a population rapidly after a decline. Within the population, mortality of small juvenile females was higher in multimale than in unimale groups, though medium juvenile and older immature females were better represented in multimale than in unimale groups. These results may be explained in terms of group composition and the mating systems in red howlers.     

Standing on the Shoulders of Giants: Learning from Experience in Fisheries

Progress in any field depends primarily on our ability to synthesize previous experience – to stand on the shoulders of the giants who have worked before us. In fisheries management we have learned a great deal from past experience, but we have also failed to do so. Most stock assessments use no quantitative information derived from previous experience on other fish stocks, and often fix parameter values at some best estimates rather than admit uncertainty in their value. Meta-analysis provides a method to admit the uncertainty in most model parameters while using experience from other populations to provide an estimate of the distribution of the parameter. We demonstrate the application of meta-analysis for the intensity of depensation in spawner–recruit relationships in two species of Pacific salmon, and we discuss the potential of, and limitations to, meta-analysis in fisheries stock assessment.     

Integral projection models perform better for small demographic data sets than matrix population models: a case study of two perennial herbs

1. Matrix population models are widely used to describe population dynamics, conduct population viability analyses and derive management recommendations for plant populations. For endangered or invasive species, management decisions are often based on small demographic data sets. Hence, there is a need for population models which accurately assess population performance from such small data sets.
2. We used demographic data on two perennial herbs with different life histories to compare the accuracy and precision of the traditional matrix population model and the recently developed integral projection model (IPM) in relation to the amount of data.
3. For large data sets both matrix models and IPMs produced identical estimates of population growth rate (λ). However, for small data sets containing fewer than 300 individuals, IPMs often produced smaller bias and variance for λ than matrix models despite different matrix structures and sampling techniques used to construct the matrix population models.
4. Synthesis and applications . Our results suggest that the smaller bias and variance of λ estimates make IPMs preferable to matrix population models for small demographic data sets with a few hundred individuals. These results are likely to be applicable to a wide range of herbaceous, perennial plant species where demographic fate can be modelled as a function of a continuous state variable such as size. We recommend the use of IPMs to assess population performance and management strategies particularly for endangered or invasive perennial herbs where little demographic data are available.