Limited prospects for future alpine treeline advance in the Canadian Rocky Mountains

Treeline advance has occurred throughout the twentieth century in mountainous regions around the world; however, local variation and temporal lags in responses to climate warming indicate that the upper limits of some treelines are not necessarily in climatic equilibrium. These observations suggest that factors other than climate are constraining tree establishment beyond existing treelines. Using a seed addition experiment, we tested the effects of seed availability, predation and microsite limitation on the establishment of two subalpine tree species (Picea engelmannii and Abies lasiocarpa) across four treelines in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. The effect of vegetation removal on seedling growth was also determined, and microclimate conditions were monitored. Establishment limitations observed in the field were placed in context with the effects of soil properties observed in a parallel experiment. The seed addition experiment revealed reduced establishment with increasing elevation, suggesting that although establishment within the treeline ecotone is at least partially seed limited, other constraints are more important beyond the current treeline. The effects of herbivory and microsite availability significantly reduced seedling establishment but were less influential beyond the treeline. Microclimate monitoring revealed that establishment was negatively related to growing season temperatures and positively related to the duration of winter snow cover, counter to the conventional expectation that establishment is limited by low temperatures. Overall, it appears that seedling establishment beyond treeline is predominantly constrained by a combination of high soil surface temperatures during the growing season, reduced winter snowpack and unfavourable soil properties. Our study supports the assertion that seedling establishment in alpine treeline ecotones is simultaneously limited by various climatic and nonclimatic drivers. Together, these factors may limit future treeline advance in the Canadian Rocky Mountains and should be considered when assessing the potential for treeline advance in alpine systems elsewhere     

High and dry: post‐fire tree seedling establishment in subalpine forests decreases with post‐fire drought and large stand‐replacing burn patches

Aim Climate warming and increased wildfire activity are hypothesized to catalyse biogeographical shifts, reducing the resilience of fire‐prone forests world‐wide. Two key mechanisms underpinning hypotheses are: (1) reduced seed availability in large stand‐replacing burn patches, and (2) reduced seedling establishment/survival after post‐fire drought. We tested for regional evidence consistent with these mechanisms in an extensive fire‐prone forest biome by assessing post‐fire tree seedling establishment, a key indicator of forest resilience. Location Subalpine forests, US Rocky Mountains. Methods We analysed post‐fire tree seedling establishment from 184 field plots where stand‐replacing forest fires were followed by varying post‐fire climate conditions. Generalized linear mixed models tested how establishment rates varied with post‐fire drought severity and distance to seed source (among other relevant factors) for tree species with contrasting post‐fire regeneration adaptations. Results Total post‐fire tree seedling establishment (all species combined) declined sharply with greater post‐fire drought severity and with greater distance to seed sources (i.e. the interior of burn patches). Effects varied among key species groups. For conifers that dominate present‐day subalpine forests (Picea engelmannii, Abies lasiocarpa), post‐fire seedling establishment declined sharply with both factors. One exception was serotinous Pinus contorta, which did not vary with either factor. For montane species expected to move upslope under future climate change (Larix occidentalis, Pseudotsuga menziesii, Populus tremuloides) and upper treeline species (Pinus albicaulis), establishment was unrelated to either factor. Greater post‐fire tree seedling establishment on cooler/wetter aspects suggested local topographic refugia during post‐fire droughts. Main conclusions If future drought and wildfire patterns manifest as expected, post‐fire tree seedling establishment of species that currently characterize subalpine forests could be substantially reduced. Compensatory increases from lower montane and upper treeline species may partially offset these reductions, but our data suggest important near‐ to mid‐term shifts in the composition and structure of high‐elevation forests under continued climate warming and increased wildfire activity.     

高山林线变化的更新受限机制研究进展

全球林线位置对气候变暖的响应表现为上升、无变化或下降等截然不同趋势,表明影响林线位置及动态的因子十分复杂,除了较普遍认为的低温调控机制外,还存在其它控制林线位置变化的机制。林线向上迁移开始于种子向林线以上的传播及幼苗在林线以上的定居,这些过程中的限制因子均会影响林线的位移,因此研究更新过程及其限制因子对理解高山林线对气候变化的响应具有重要的科学意义。主要从种子和幼苗两个关键阶段综述高山林线森林更新的研究进展。在种子阶段,夏季积温不足导致种子产量和活力下降,风速过低和浓密灌丛限制种子向林线以上传播,近地表的霜冻/水分胁迫和灌木释放的化感物质会阻碍种子在林线以上萌发。在幼苗阶段,除冬季低温外,生长季内较大的温度日振幅和偶然出现的冻害事件也是导致幼苗死亡的重要原因,而低温环境下的强烈光照引起的低温光抑制会显著降低生长季的光合作用;土壤低温、由土壤温度昼夜变化引起的冻举事件、夏季土壤干旱可能会导致幼苗光合作用下降和死亡率上升;积雪太浅会导致生长季早期幼苗水分供应的严重缺乏,但积雪太深会导致幼苗感染真菌的可能性增加;浓密的灌木和草本植物以及植食动物的啃食也会降低林线以上的幼苗存活率。气候变暖对林线幼苗定居的影响复杂且具有很大不确定性,需要进一步研究气候变暖导致的环境因子变化对林线更新各关键阶段的影响。未来气候变暖无疑会导致生长季起始日提前,结束日推迟,这很可能会增加生长季期间尤其是早期的低温冻害事件,对高山林线树种幼苗的存活具有重要影响。在未来研究中,需要找出定义生长季冻害事件的温度阈值,利用长期气象观测数据分析增温背景下生长季早期冻害事件特征的变化趋势,并进一步开展野外模拟增温实验以深刻理解林线树种的种子萌发和幼苗定居与生长季冻害事件的关系,加强对不同地区林线树种的繁殖策略研究,这将有助于人们进一步理解不同区域林线的形成机制并预测未来气候变化条件下林线的动态变化趋势。     

The interacting effects of temperature,ground disturbance,and herbivory on seedling establishment: implications for treeline advance with climate warming

Thermal control of treeline position is mediated by local environmental and ecological factors, making trends in treeline migration difficult to extrapolate geographically. We investigated the ecological dynamics of conifer establishment at treeline in the Mealy Mountains (Labrador, Canada) and the potential for its expansion with climate warming. Available seedbed and tree seedling emergence in the treeline ecotone were monitored, and seeds and seedlings of Picea mariana were planted along an elevational gradient from open-canopy forest through tree islands to alpine tundra. Experimental treatments included passive warming of daytime air, ground disturbance, and vertebrate herbivore exclosures. Responses in seed germination and seedling growth, damage, and mortality were monitored over two growing seasons, and re-surveyed after 5 years. While no tree seedlings were observed growing naturally above the treeline, planted seeds were able to germinate, develop and overwinter, and persist for 4 years in all habitats examined. Disturbance of the seedbed was important for seedling emergence in the forest and tree islands. While temperature enhancement alone had little impact on emergence, even moderate temperature increases had significantly disproportionate effects on emergence of seedlings in the alpine habitat when combined with soil disturbance, indicating that future climate warming could lead to treeline advance if viable seed and suitable substrate for recruitment are available. The positive effect of excluding herbivores suggests that herbivory may be an important filter modifying future species distribution. While seedbed conditions and herbivory would control the rate of individual species advance, the results indicate potential upslope migration of the treeline in the Mealy Mountains, with consequent loss of alpine ecosystems.     

Reproduction as a bottleneck to treeline advance across the circumarctic forest tundra ecotone

The fundamental niche of many species is shifting with climate change, especially in sub‐arctic ecosystems with pronounced recent warming. Ongoing warming in sub‐arctic regions should lessen environmental constraints on tree growth and reproduction, leading to increased success of trees colonising tundra. Nevertheless, variable responses of treeline ecotones have been documented in association with warming temperatures. One explanation for time lags between increasingly favourable environmental conditions and treeline ecotone movement is reproductive limitations caused by low seed availability. Our objective was to assess the reproductive constraints of the dominant tree species at the treeline ecotone in the circumpolar north. We sampled reproductive structures of trees (cones and catkins) and stand attributes across circumarctic treeline ecotones. We used generalized linear mixed models to estimate the sensitivity of seed production and the availability of viable seed to regional climate, stand structure, and species‐specific characteristics. Both seed production and viability of available seed were strongly driven by specific, sequential seasonal climatic conditions, but in different ways. Seed production was greatest when growing seasons with more growing degree days coincided with years with high precipitation. Two consecutive years with more growing degree days and low precipitation resulted in low seed production. Seasonal climate effects on the viability of available seed depended on the physical characteristics of the reproductive structures. Large‐coned and ‐seeded species take more time to develop mature embryos and were therefore more sensitive to increases in growing degree days in the year of flowering and embryo development. Our findings suggest that both moisture stress and abbreviated growing seasons can have a notable negative influence on the production and viability of available seed at treeline. Our synthesis revealed that constraints on predispersal reproduction within the treeline ecotone might create a considerable time lag for range expansion of tree populations into tundra ecosystems.     

Treeline dynamics in relation to climatic variability in the central Tianshan Mountains, northwestern China

Aim Climate variability may be an important mediating agent of ecosystem dynamics in cold, arid regions such as the central Tianshan Mountains, north‐western China. Tree‐ring chronologies and the age structure of a Schrenk spruce (Picea schrenkiana) forest were developed to examine treeline dynamics in recent decades in relation to climatic variability. Of particular interest was whether tree‐ring growth and population recruitment patterns responded similarly to climate warming. Location The study was conducted in eight stands that ranged from 2500 m to 2750 m a.s.l. near the treeline in the Tianchi Nature Reserve (43°45′?43°59′ N, 88°00′?88°20′ E) in the central Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, northwestern China. Methods Tree‐ring cores were collected and used to develop tree‐ring chronologies. The age of sampled trees was determined from basal cores sampled as close as possible to the ground. Population age structure and recruitment information were obtained using an age–d.b.h. (diameter at breast height) regression from the sampled cores and the d.b.h. measured on all trees in the plots. Ring‐width chronologies and tree age structure were both used to investigate the relationship between treeline dynamics and climate change. Results Comparisons with the climatic records showed that both the radial growth of trees and tree recruitment were influenced positively by temperature and precipitation in the cold high treeline zone, but the patterns of their responses differed. The annual variation in tree rings could be explained largely by the average monthly minimum temperatures during February and August of the current year and by the monthly precipitation of the previous August and January, which had a significant and positive effect on tree radial growth. P. schrenkiana recruitment was influenced mainly by consecutive years of high minimum summer temperatures and high precipitation during spring. Over the last several decades, the treeline did not show an obvious upward shift and new recruitment was rare. Some trees had established at the treeline at least 200 years ago. Recruitment increased until the early 20th century (1910s) but then decreased with poor recruitment over the past several decades (1950–2000). Main conclusions There were strong associations between climatic change and ring‐width patterns, and with recruitments in Schrenk spruce. Average minimum temperatures in February and August, and total precipitation in the previous August and January, had a positive effect on tree‐ring width, and several consecutive years of high minimum summer temperature and spring precipitation was a main factor favouring the establishment of P. schrenkiana following germination within the treeline ecotone. Both dendroclimatology and recruitment analysis were useful and compatible to understand and reconstruct treeline dynamics in the central Tianshan Mountains.     

Tree recruitment above the treeline and potential for climate‐driven treeline change

Questions: How do population structure and recruitment characteristics of Betula saplings beyond the treeline vary among climatic regions, and what is the potential for development into tree‐sized individuals with interacting grazing pressure? Location: Scandes Mountains. Methods: Sapling characteristics of Betula pubescens subsp. tortuosa, their topographic position above the treeline, growth habitat and evidence of recent grazing was investigated in three areas with a long continuous grazing history, along a latitudinal gradient (62‐69°N). Results: Saplings were common up to 100 m above the treeline in all areas. The northern areas were characterised by small (<30 cm) and young (mean 14 years old) saplings in exposed micro‐topographic locations unfavourable to long‐term survival. In the southern area, broad height (2‐183 cm) and age (4‐95 years; mean 32 years) distributions were found in sheltered locations. Age declined with altitude in all areas. Sapling growth rate varied within and between areas, and the age × height interaction was significant only in the southern area. Growth rates decreased from south to north and indicated a considerable time required to reach tree size under prevailing conditions. Conclusions: Regional differences can be attributed to climatic differences, however, interacting biotic and abiotic factors such as micro‐topography, climate and herbivory, mutually affect the characteristics of birch saplings. In view of the long time needed to reach tree size, the generally expected evident and fast treeline advance in response to climate warming may not be a likely short‐term scenario. The sapling pool in the southern region possesses strongest potential for treeline advance.     

Back to the Future: The Responses of Alpine Treelines to Climate Warming are Constrained by the Current Ecotone Structure

Alpine treeline ecotones are considered early-warning monitors of the effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems, but it is still unclear how accurately treeline dynamics may track the expected temperature rises. Site-specific abiotic constraints, such as topography and demographic trends may make treelines less responsive to environmental fluctuations. A better understanding on how local processes modulate treelines’ response to warming is thus required. We developed a model of treeline dynamics based on individual data of growth, mortality and reproduction. Specifically, we modeled growth patterns, mortality rates and reproductive size thresholds as a function of temperature and stand structure to evaluate the influence of climate- and stand-related processes on treeline dynamics. In this study, we analyze the dynamics of four Pyrenean mountain pine treeline sites with contrasting stand structures, and subjected to differing rates of climate warming. Our models indicate that Pyrenean treelines could reach basal areas and reproductive potentials similar to those currently observed in high-elevation subalpine forest by the mid twenty-first century. The fastest paces of treeline densification are forecasted by the late twenty-first century and are associated with higher warming rates. We found a common densification response of Pyrenean treelines to climate warming, but contrasting paces arise due to current size structures. Treelines characterized by a multistratified stand structure and subjected to lower mean annual temperatures were the most responsive to climate warming. In monostratified stands, tree growth was less sensitive to temperature than in multistratified stands and trees reached their reproductive size threshold later. Therefore, our simulations highlight that stand structure is paramount in modulating treeline responsiveness to ongoing climate warming. Synthesis. Treeline densification over the twenty-first century is likely to occur at different rates contingent on current stand structure and its effects on individual-level tree growth responses to warming. Accurate projections of future treeline dynamics must thus incorporate site-specific factors other than climate, specifically those related to stand structure and its influence on tree growth.     

Disturbance facilitates rapid range expansion of aspen into higher elevations of the Rocky Mountains under a warming climate

Aim Trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) is absent in the upper foothills region of west‐central Alberta because of the cold conditions and short growing season at this high elevation. However, in recent years it appears that aspen has been establishing from seed in this zone and that it has been doing so mainly as a result of forest harvesting. The objectives of this study were to determine the frequency of and types of microsite required for the successful establishment of aspen seedlings at these higher elevations. Location Rocky Mountains Upper Foothills Natural Subregion of west‐central Alberta, Canada. Methods The current distribution of mature aspen and the presence and absence of aspen seedlings in harvested areas were determined in an area c. 300 km² in size, using ground and aerial surveys. In an intensive study, 12 belt transects (180 m long and 5 m wide) were established in areas disturbed by forest harvesting at high elevations where no aspen was present prior to harvesting. Transects were surveyed seven growing seasons after disturbance and the microsites occupied by aspen seedlings were characterized according to their substrate and microtopography. Similarly, the availability of different substrates and microtopographic positions were assessed by systematic point sampling on these sites. Results On level surfaces, aspen seedling regeneration was found up to 200 m higher in elevation than the mature aspen in the original undisturbed forests. Overall, there were 428 seedlings ha^?1 established on these transects, and the age distribution indicates that aspen seedlings had established in each of the seven growing seasons since the disturbance. Nearly all of the seedlings (93%) were established on mineral soil microsites and virtually no seedlings were established on undisturbed forest floor layers. Significantly more seedlings were found in concave microtopographic positions. Main conclusions This study indicates that aspen establishment from seed is currently not a stochastic event and demonstrates that aspen is rapidly expanding its range upslope in the Canadian Rocky Mountain region as a result of forest management practices that expose mineral soil substrates in conjunction with a warming climate. The change in canopy composition from conifer to deciduous forests at these higher elevations will have far‐reaching implications for ecosystem processes and functions.     

The importance of biotic filtering on boreal conifer recruitment at alpine treeline

Treeline, the ecotone where forest transitions to alpine or tundra ecosystems, is considered the thermal limit to tree growth and survival. Despite temperature increases across mountainous areas and high latitudes globally, there has been no ubiquitous change in treeline position. The process of range expansion must initially depend on increased recruitment at, or beyond current range limits and recruitment limitations have been hypothesized as a mechanism for the variable response of treeline position to climate warming. We conducted a unique series of observational and experimental studies to quantify early-life stage constraints, from seed production to seedling establishment, on black spruce Picea mariana and tamarack Larix laricina recruitment at a model alpine treeline in Newfoundland, Canada. We found recruitment at treeline to be simultaneously seed and establishment limited. The treeline population produced fewer seeds than the forest population and black spruce seeds produced at treeline were less viable. Tamarack was more seed limited than black spruce where seed viability was low regardless of altitudinal position. Post-dispersal seed predation greatly constrained recruitment across the altitudinal gradient; however, black spruce seeds experienced the lowest levels of invertebrate seed predation on the lichen mat at treeline. If seeds were not consumed, individuals at treeline were establishment limited where germination and seedling establishment was both less abundant and delayed on lichen substrate. Our study highlights the need for multiple factors to align temporally for significant recruitment at treeline to occur.     

Improving phenological forecasting models for rape stem weevil,Ceutorhynchus napi Gyll., based on long‐term multisite datasets

New threshold‐based models to predict the start of invasion by the stem‐boring pest, the rape stem weevil (Ceutorhynchus napi Gyll.) of winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.), were developed and compared to published models using long‐term datasets on weather and weevil phenology from experimental locations in Germany and Luxembourg. Threshold values for daily records of maximum air temperature, mean soil temperature, sunshine duration and total precipitation were adjusted to local conditions on the date of first weevil migration in spring. Mean error and the root mean squared error were used to assess model quality, where the error is defined as the number of days between predicted and observed arrival of weevils on the crop (regardless of sign). Best model results predicted first crop invasion by rape stem weevil when the thresholds of daily maximum air temperature ≥7.8°C, mean soil temperature ≥6.6°C, daily total precipitation ≤1.0 mm and sunshine duration ≥1 h were matched. This model takes into account meteorological variables likely to influence conditions at the overwintering site of the weevils in the soil, as well as variables that may limit weevil flight. Adjusted air temperature threshold values were consistently lower for Luxembourg sites than for those optimized for Germany. A simple model relating the date of first weevil invasion to accumulated daily maximum air temperature above 0°C (from 1 January) was also evaluated. This proved less suitable for forecasting crop invasion by C. napi. We suggest that phenological models using locally adjusted meteorological‐based thresholds have the potential to offer sufficiently accurate forecasts of first immigration flights by C. napi for appropriate timing of insecticide application. In addition, the developed models are suitable tools to be used in climate change impact studies.     

Sensitivity and response of northern hemisphere altitudinal and polar treelines to environmental change at landscape and local scales

The sensitivity and response of northern hemisphere altitudinal and polar treelines to environmental change are increasingly discussed in terms of climate change, often forgetting that climate is only one aspect of environmental variation. As treeline heterogeneity increases from global to regional and smaller scales, assessment of treeline sensitivity at the landscape and local scales requires a more complex approach than at the global scale. The time scale (short‐, medium‐, long‐term) also plays an important role when considering treeline sensitivity. The sensitivity of the treeline to a changing environment varies among different types of treeline. Treelines controlled mainly by orographic influences are not very susceptible to the effects of warming climates. Greatest sensitivity can be expected in anthropogenic treelines after the cessation of human activity. However, tree invasion into former forested areas above the anthropogenic forest limit is controlled by site conditions, and in particular, by microclimates and soils. Apart from changes in tree physiognomy, the spontaneous advance of young growth of forest‐forming tree species into present treeless areas within the treeline ecotone and beyond the tree limit is considered to be the best indicator of treeline sensitivity to environmental change. The sensitivity of climatic treelines to climate warming varies both in the local and regional topographical conditions. Furthermore, treeline history and its after‐effects also play an important role. The sensitivity of treelines to changes in given factors (e.g. winter snow pack, soil moisture, temperature, evaporation, etc.) may vary among areas with differing climatic characteristics. In general, forest will not advance in a closed front but will follow sites that became more favourable to tree establishment under the changed climatic conditions.     

Mosses modify effects of warmer and wetter conditions on tree seedlings at the alpine treeline

Climate warming enables tree seedling establishment beyond the current alpine treeline, but to achieve this, seedlings have to establish within existing tundra vegetation. In tundra, mosses are a prominent feature, known to regulate soil temperature and moisture through their physical structure and associated water retention capacity. Moss presence and species identity might therefore modify the impact of increases in temperature and precipitation on tree seedling establishment at the arctic‐alpine treeline. We followed Betula pubescens and Pinus sylvestris seedling survival and growth during three growing seasons in the field. Tree seedlings were transplanted along a natural precipitation gradient at the subarctic‐alpine treeline in northern Sweden, into plots dominated by each of three common moss species and exposed to combinations of moss removal and experimental warming by open‐top chambers (OTCs). Independent of climate, the presence of feather moss, but not Sphagnum, strongly supressed survival of both tree species. Positive effects of warming and precipitation on survival and growth of B. pubescens seedlings occurred in the absence of mosses and as expected, this was partly dependent on moss species. P. sylvestris survival was greatest at high precipitation, and this effect was more pronounced in Sphagnum than in feather moss plots irrespective of whether the mosses had been removed or not. Moss presence did not reduce the effects of OTCs on soil temperature. Mosses therefore modified seedling response to climate through other mechanisms, such as altered competition or nutrient availability. We conclude that both moss presence and species identity pose a strong control on seedling establishment at the alpine treeline, and that in some cases mosses weaken climate‐change effects on seedling establishment. Changes in moss abundance and species composition therefore have the potential to hamper treeline expansion induced by climate warming.     

The Role of Microsite Conditions in Restoring Trembling Aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx) from Seed

Encouraging natural regeneration of Populus tremuloides Michx (trembling aspen) from seed is a largely unexplored means for reintroducing the species into reclamation areas. We evaluated the effects of microsite (surface contour and substrate type) on aspen seedling establishment and growth on a reclaimed coal mine. The 4.6 ha study site was divided into six 48 m‐wide strips that had 15 or 40 cm capping material salvaged from a nearby forest floor added to the mine surface. We surveyed 126 m long transects located in the center of each strip for microsite conditions, and the presence and height of aspen seedlings. We found that aspen seedlings generally preferred mineral‐organic substrates and concave microsites. To facilitate the regeneration of aspen by seed, we suggest that land managers increase small‐scale roughness and microtopographic diversity on reclaimed sites .     

Latitudinal response of subarctic tree lines to recent climate change in eastern Canada

Aim The predictions from biogeographical models of poleward expansion of biomes under a warmer 2 × CO2 scenario might not be warranted, given the non‐climatic influences on vegetation dynamics. Milder climatic conditions have occurred in northern Québec, Canada, in the 20th century. The purpose of this study was to document the early signs of a northward expansion of the boreal forest into the subarctic forest‐tundra, a vast heterogeneous ecotone. Colonization of upland tundra sites by black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP.) forming local subarctic tree lines was quantified at the biome scale. Because it was previously shown that the regenerative potential of spruce is reduced with increasing latitude, we predicted that tree line advances and recent establishment of seedlings above tree lines will also decrease northwards. Location Black spruce regeneration patterns were surveyed across a > 300‐km latitudinal transect spanning the forest‐tundra of northern Québec, Canada (55°29′–58°27′ N). Methods Elevational transects were positioned at forest–tundra interfaces in two regions from the southern forest‐tundra and two regions from the northern forest‐tundra, including the arctic tree line. The surroundings of stunted black spruce, forming the species limit in the shrub tundra, were also examined. Position, total height and origin (seed or layer) of all black spruce stems established in the elevational transects were determined. Dendrochronological and topographical data allowed recent subarctic tree line advances to be estimated. Age structures of spruce recently established from seed (< 2.5 m high) were constructed and compared between forest‐tundra regions. Five to 20‐year heat sum (growing degree‐days, > 5 °C) and precipitation fluctuations were computed from regional climatic data, and compared with seedling recruitment patterns. Results During the 20th century, all tree lines from the southern forest‐tundra rose slightly through establishment of seed‐origin spruce, while some tree lines in the northern forest‐tundra rose through height growth of stunted spruce already established on the tundra hilltops. However, the rate of rise in tree lines did not slow down with latitude. The density of < 2.5‐m spruce established by seed declined exponentially with latitude. While the majority of < 2.5‐m spruce has established since the late 1970s on the southernmost tundra hilltops, the regeneration pool was mainly composed of old, suppressed individuals in the northern forest‐tundra. Spruce age generally decreased with increasing elevation in the southern forest‐tundra stands, therefore indicating current colonization of tundra hilltops. Although spruce reproductive success has improved over the twentieth century in the southern forest‐tundra, there was hardly any evidence that recruitment of seed‐origin spruce was controlled by 5‐ to 20‐year regional climatic fluctuations, except for winter precipitation. Main conclusions Besides the milder 20th century climate, local topographic factors appear to have influenced the rise in tree lines and recent establishment by seed. The effect of black spruce's semi‐serotinous cones in trapping seeds and the difficulty of establishment on exposed, drought‐prone tundra vegetation are some factors likely to explain the scarcity of significant correlations between tree establishment and climatic variables in the short term. The age data suggest impending reforestation of the southernmost tundra sites, although the development of spruce seedlings into forest might be slowed down by the harsh wind‐exposure conditions.     

The interaction between propagule pressure,habitat suitability and density‐dependent reproduction in species invasion

Seedling recruitment limitations create a demographic bottleneck that largely determines the viability and structure of plant populations and communities, and pose a core restriction on the colonization of novel habitat. We use a shade‐tolerant, invasive grass, Microstegium vimineum, to examine the interplay between seed and establishment limitations – phenomena that together determine recruitment success but usually are investigated individually. We add increasing amounts of seed to microhabitats containing variable levels of leaf litter thickness – with reduced leaf litter simulating disturbance – to investigate whether reduced seed limitation overcomes the establishment limitation posed by litter cover. We do this across gradients in understory light, moisture and temperature, and quantify germination, survival, and then per capita adult biomass and reproduction in order to understand the implications for invasion across the landscape. We find that the combined effects of seed and establishment limitation influence recruitment; however, propagule pressure overwhelms the inhibitory effects of leaf litter thickness. Leaf litter reduces germination by 22–57% and seedling survival by 13–15% from that observed on bare soil. However, density‐dependent reproduction compensates as 1–3 plants can produce far more seeds (approx. 525) than are required for persistence. As such, just a few plants may establish in understory forest habitat and subsequently overwhelm establishment barriers with copious propagule production. These results, for a widespread, invasive plant, are consistent with the emerging perspective for native plants that seed and establishment limitation jointly influence recruitment. The ability for an exotic plant species to compensate for low population densities with high per capita seed production, that then overrides establishment limitations, makes its invasive potential daunting. Further work is required to test if this is a common mechanism underlying plant invasions.     

Leap frog in slow motion: Divergent responses of tree species and life stages to climatic warming in Great Basin subalpine forests

In response to climate warming, subalpine treelines are expected to move up in elevation since treelines are generally controlled by growing season temperature. Where treeline is advancing, dispersal differences and early life stage environmental tolerances are likely to affect how species expand their ranges. Species with an establishment advantage will colonize newly available habitat first, potentially excluding species that have slower establishment rates. Using a network of plots across five mountain ranges, we described patterns of upslope elevational range shift for the two dominant Great Basin subalpine species, limber pine and Great Basin bristlecone pine. We found that the Great Basin treeline for these species is expanding upslope with a mean vertical elevation shift of 19.1 m since 1950, which is lower than what we might expect based on temperature increases alone. The largest advances were on limber pine‐dominated granitic soils, on west aspects, and at lower latitudes. Bristlecone pine juveniles establishing above treeline share some environmental associations with bristlecone adults. Limber pine above‐treeline juveniles, in contrast, are prevalent across environmental conditions and share few environmental associations with limber pine adults. Strikingly, limber pine is establishing above treeline throughout the region without regard to site characteristic such as soil type, slope, aspect, or soil texture. Although limber pine is often rare at treeline where it coexists with bristlecone pine, limber pine juveniles dominate above treeline even on calcareous soils that are core bristlecone pine habitat. Limber pine is successfully “leap‐frogging” over bristlecone pine, probably because of its strong dispersal advantage and broader tolerances for establishment. This early‐stage dominance indicates the potential for the species composition of treeline to change in response to climate change. More broadly, it shows how species differences in dispersal and establishment may result in future communities with very different specific composition.     

Constraints on treeline advance in a warming climate: a test of the reproduction limitation hypothesis

Aims Several mechanistic hypotheses have been developed to explain the existence of alpine treelines worldwide. The reproduction limitation hypothesis (RLH) postulates that reproductive processes such as seed production and dispersal are restricted in treeline environments, thereby limiting the establishment of new individuals in advance of extant treelines. Despite its popularity, no study has tested this hypothesis in a comprehensive fashion. In this experiment, we attempted to answer whether there are enough viable seeds being dispersed beyond treeline for sexually mediated treeline advance, and what the implications of climate change might be on these processes.Methods We established 30 plots across two aspects (north vs. south) and three elevational habitats (forest, treeline and tundra) in a white spruce (Picea glauca) boreal forest-alpine tundra ecotone in southwest Yukon, Canada. In each plot, tree characteristics, seed production and predispersal damage were measured. Additionally, eight dispersal trays were positioned in each plot to measure seed rain, and germination trials with and without predation exclosures were constructed in a subset of plots to quantify dispersal and germination success.Important findings Results were highly variable both temporally and spatially. In 2014, a mast year, 69% of adult trees produced cones compared to 0.4% in the following year. Higher density of trees in forest plots compared to treeline and tundra resulted in greater seed production at lower elevations. Across all plots, 88% of seeds were damaged before dispersal or were not viable. Treeline plots had significantly greater predispersal damage. Seed rain was greater in south-facing plots than north-facing plots. Less than 2% of seeds produced on the landscape were dispersed into Tundra plots, located 50 m above treeline. There was a net movement of seeds from the north-facing slope to the south at our study site, likely due to prevailing winds during the dispersal period. Germination counts were more than double on north-facing slopes and one-third higher inside exclosures. Cumulatively, the results provide some evidence for the RLH. Collectively, the high amount of predispersal damage and non-viable seeds, variability associated with dispersal and significant seed predation can functionally influence treeline dynamics. These findings suggest that global treeline distribution models, which rely largely on temperature, may not be entirely accurate for predicting treeline advance—at least at finer temporal scales. Many stochastic factors need to align temporally for successful advance, which is likely to result in a lag of many decades between the period of temperature amelioration and an increased number of trees beyond extant treelines.     

Among‐tree variability and feedback effects result in different growth responses to climate change at the upper treeline in the Swiss Alps

Upper treeline ecotones are important life form boundaries and particularly sensitive to a warming climate. Changes in growth conditions at these ecotones have wide‐ranging implications for the provision of ecosystem services in densely populated mountain regions like the European Alps. We quantify climate effects on short‐ and long‐term tree growth responses, focusing on among‐tree variability and potential feedback effects. Although among‐tree variability is thought to be substantial, it has not been considered systematically yet in studies on growth–climate relationships. We compiled tree‐ring data including almost 600 trees of major treeline species (Larix decidua, Picea abies, Pinus cembra, and Pinus mugo) from three climate regions of the Swiss Alps. We further acquired tree size distribution data using unmanned aerial vehicles. To account for among‐tree variability, we employed information‐theoretic model selections based on linear mixed‐effects models (LMMs) with flexible choice of monthly temperature effects on growth. We isolated long‐term trends in ring‐width indices (RWI) in interaction with elevation. The LMMs revealed substantial amounts of previously unquantified among‐tree variability, indicating different strategies of single trees regarding when and to what extent to invest assimilates into growth. Furthermore, the LMMs indicated strongly positive temperature effects on growth during short summer periods across all species, and significant contributions of fall (L. decidua) and current year's spring (L. decidua, P. abies). In the longer term, all species showed consistently positive RWI trends at highest elevations, but different patterns with decreasing elevation. L. decidua exhibited even negative RWI trends compared to the highest treeline sites, whereas P. abies, P. cembra, and P. mugo showed steeper or flatter trends with decreasing elevation. This does not only reflect effects of ameliorated climate conditions on tree growth over time, but also reveals first signs of long‐suspected negative and positive feedback of climate change on stand dynamics at treeline.     

Disregarding the edaphic dimension in species distribution models leads to the omission of crucial spatial information under climate change: the case of Quercus pubescens in France

Species distribution modelling is an easy, persuasive and useful tool for anticipating species distribution shifts under global change. Numerous studies have used only climate variables to predict future potential species range shifts and have omitted environmental factors important for determining species distribution. Here, we assessed the importance of the edaphic dimension in the niche‐space definition of Quercus pubescens and in future spatial projections under global change over the metropolitan French forest territory. We fitted two species distribution models (SDM) based on presence/absence data (111 013 plots), one calibrated from climate variables only (mean temperature of January and climatic water balance of July) and the other one from both climate and edaphic (soil pH inferred from plants) variables. Future predictions were conducted under two climate scenarios (PCM B2 and HadCM3 A2) and based on 100 simulations using a cellular automaton that accounted for seed dispersal distance, landscape barriers preventing migration and unsuitable land cover. Adding the edaphic dimension to the climate‐only SDM substantially improved the niche‐space definition of Q. pubescens, highlighting an increase in species tolerance in confronting climate constraints as the soil pH increased. Future predictions over the 21st century showed that disregarding the edaphic dimension in SDM led to an overestimation of the potential distribution area, an underestimation of the spatial fragmentation of this area, and prevented the identification of local refugia, leading to an underestimation of the northward shift capacity of Q. pubescens and its persistence in its current distribution area. Spatial discrepancies between climate‐only and climate‐plus‐edaphic models are strengthened when seed dispersal and forest fragmentation are accounted for in predicting a future species distribution area. These discrepancies highlight some imprecision in spatial predictions of potential distribution area of species under climate change scenarios and possibly wrong conclusions for conservation and management perspectives when climate‐only models are used.