Global conservation strategies for two clades of snakes: combining taxon-specific goals with general prioritization schemes

Aim We present the first attempt of mapping global conservation priorities for two snake clades, Viperidae and Elapidae. We compared the global conservation priorities of each clade with the nine global conservation schemes defined by Brooks et al. to evaluate how effective these schemes are in ensuring the preservation of viperid and elapid biodiversity. Location Global. Methods Based on range maps of 228 species of Viperidae and 224 species of Elapidae, we used systematic conservation planning methods of complementarity and irreplaceability to generate a set of conservation networks under two cost scenarios: (1) minimizing conservation‐human development conflicts and (2) maximizing environmental suitability for high snake richness. Analysis of variance was used to investigate whether the mean irreplaceability of cells matching the areas covered by each of the nine global prioritization schemes in Brooks et al. was higher than the mean irreplaceability of cells located outside these areas. Results Overall, few areas showed irreplaceability higher than 0.5 based on a goal of representing 25% of the species’ ranges. The conservation networks generated in expectation of low conflicts between human development and conservation were quite different from the networks of high environmental suitability. Areas with higher irreplaceability coincided with the regions covered by global schemes of Endemic Bird Areas (for Viperidae and Elapidae) and High‐Biodiversity Wilderness (for Elapidae). Main conclusions Our findings indicated the existence of viable conservation opportunities for these two snake groups. This study can be viewed as a way to overcome, at least in part, the recent criticism concerning the independent development of several global conservation priorities by evaluating which groups of organisms are better represented in each of them. More than simply determining priorities for snakes’ conservation, our analyses showed that the development of parallel priority‐setting initiatives can be reconciled with those strategies for which financial resources are already being designed.     

The Phylogenetic Position of the Family Elapidae in the Light of the Developmental Study of the Skull

The developmental study of the skull reveals the following views: The elapid chondrocranium represents a very advanced ophidian type. It more resembles the viperid chondrocranium than the colubrid one. The viperid chondrocranium is only very slightly more advanced than that of the Elapidae. The viperid osteocranium has progressed still further in the development of the poison apparatus than has the elapid osteocranium. The developmental study of the skull advocates the opinion that the family Colubridae has given rise to the family Elapidae, and the Elapidae (or at least the ancestral Elapidae) has given rise to the family Viperidae.     

Different evolutionary histories underlie congruent species richness gradients of birds and mammals

Aim The global species richness patterns of birds and mammals are strongly congruent. This could reflect similar evolutionary responses to the Earth’s history, shared responses to current climatic conditions, or both. We compare the geographical and phylogenetic structures of both richness gradients to evaluate these possibilities. Location Global. Methods Gridded bird and mammal distribution databases were used to compare their species richness gradients with the current environment. Phylogenetic trees (resolved to family for birds and to species for mammals) were used to examine underlying phylogenetic structures. Our first prediction is that both groups have responded to the same climatic gradients. Our phylogenetic predictions include: (1) that both groups have similar geographical patterns of mean root distance, a measure of the level of the evolutionary development of faunas, and, more directly, (2) that richness patterns of basal and derived clades will differ, with richness peaking in the tropics for basal clades and in the extra‐tropics for derived clades, and that this difference will hold for both birds and mammals. We also explore whether alternative taxonomic treatments for mammals can generate patterns matching those of birds. Results Both richness gradients are associated with the same current environmental gradients. In contrast, neither of our evolutionary predictions is met: the gradients have different phylogenetic structures, and the richness of birds in the lowland tropics is dominated by many basal species from many basal groups, whereas mammal richness is attributable to many species from both few basal groups and many derived groups. Phylogenetic incongruence is robust to taxonomic delineations for mammals. Main conclusions Contemporary climate can force multiple groups into similar diversity patterns even when evolutionary trajectories differ. Thus, as widely appreciated, our understanding of biodiversity must consider responses to both past and present climates, and our results are consistent with predictions that future climate change will cause major, correlated changes in patterns of diversity across multiple groups irrespective of their evolutionary histories.     

Ecological and evolutionary components of body size: geographic variation of venomous snakes at the global scale

Biogeographical patterns of animal body size and the environmental and evolutionary mechanisms that may be driving them have been broadly investigated in macroecology, although just barely in ectotherms. We separately studied two snake clades, Viperidae and Elapidae, and used phylogenetic eigenvector regression and ordinary least squares multiple regression methods to perform a global grid-based analysis of the extent at which the patterns of body size (measured for each species as its log₁₀-transformed maximum body length) of these groups are phylogenetically structured or driven by current environment trends. Phylogenetic relatedness explained 20% of the across-species size variation in Viperidae, and 59% of that of Elapidae, which is a more recent clade. Conversely, when we analysed spatial trends in mean body size values (calculated for each grid-cell as the average size of its extant species), an environmental model including temperature, precipitation, primary productivity (as indicated by the global vegetation index) and topography (range in elevation) explained 37.6% of the variation of Viperidae, but only 4.5% of that of Elapidae. These contrasted responses of body size patterns to current environment gradients are discussed, taking into consideration the dissimilar evolutionary histories of these closely-related groups. Additionally, the results obtained emphasize the importance of the need to start adopting deconstructive approaches in macroecology.  © 2009 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society , 2009, 98 , 94–109.     

Extinction as a driver of avian latitudinal diversity gradients

The role of historical factors in driving latitudinal diversity gradients is poorly understood. Here, we used an updated global phylogeny of terrestrial birds to test the role of three key historical factors—speciation, extinction, and dispersal rates—in generating latitudinal diversity gradients for eight major clades. We fit a model that allows speciation, extinction, and dispersal rates to differ, both with latitude and between the New and Old World. Our results consistently support extinction (all clades had lowest extinction where species richness was highest) as a key driver of species richness gradients across each of eight major clades. In contrast, speciation and dispersal rates showed no consistent latitudinal patterns across replicate bird clades, and thus are unlikely to represent general underlying drivers of latitudinal diversity gradients.     

The global distribution of frugivory in birds

Aim To examine patterns of avian frugivory across clades, geography and environments. Location Global, including all six major biogeographical realms (Afrotropics, Australasia, Indo‐Malaya, Nearctic, Neotropics and Palaearctic). Methods First, we examine the taxonomic distribution of avian frugivory within orders and families. Second we evaluate, with traditional and spatial regression approaches, the geographical patterns of frugivore species richness and proportion. Third, we test the potential of contemporary climate (water–energy, productivity, seasonality), habitat heterogeneity (topography, habitat diversity) and biogeographical history (captured by realm membership) to explain geographical patterns of avian frugivory. Results Most frugivorous birds (50%) are found within the perching birds (Passeriformes), but the woodpeckers and allies (Piciformes), parrots (Psittaciformes) and pigeons (Columbiformes) also contain a significant number of frugivorous species (9–15%). Frugivore richness is highest in the Neotropics, but peaks in overall bird diversity in the Himalayan foothills, the East African mountains and in some areas of Brazil and Bolivia are not reflected by frugivores. Current climate explains more variance in species richness and proportion of frugivores than of non‐frugivores whereas it is the opposite for habitat heterogeneity. Actual evapotranspiration (AET) emerges as the best single climatic predictor variable of avian frugivory. Significant differences in frugivore richness and proportion between select biogeographical regions remain after differences in environment (i.e. AET) are accounted for. Main conclusions We present evidence that both environmental and historical constraints influence global patterns of avian frugivory. Whereas water–energy dynamics possibly constrain frugivore distribution via indirect effects on food plants, regional differences in avian frugivory most likely reflect historical contingencies related to the evolutionary history of fleshy fruited plant taxa, niche conservatism and past climate change. Overall our results support an important role of co‐diversification and environmental constraints on regional assembly over macroevolutionary time‐scales.     

Time and environment explain the current richness distribution of non‐marine turtles worldwide

Ecological, historical, and evolutionary hypotheses are important to explain geographical diversity gradients in many clades, but few studies have combined them into a single analysis allowing a comparison of their relative importance. This study aimed to evaluate the relative importance of ecological, historical, and evolutionary hypotheses in explaining the current global distribution of non‐marine turtles, a group whose distribution patterns are still poorly explored. We used data from distribution range maps of 336 species of non‐marine turtles, environmental layers, and phylogeny to obtain richness estimates of these animals in 2° × 2° cells and predictors related to ecological, evolutionary and historical hypotheses driving richness patterns. Then we used a path analysis to evaluate direct and indirect effects of the predictors on turtle richness. Ancestral area reconstruction was also performed in order to evaluate the influence of time‐for‐speciation in the current diversity of the group. We found that environmental variables had the highest direct effects on non‐marine turtle richness, whereas diversification rates and area available in the last 55 million yr minimally influenced turtle distributions. We found evidence for the time‐for‐speciation effect, since regions colonized early were generally richer than recently colonized regions. In addition, regions with a high number of colonization events had a higher number of turtle species. Our results suggested that ecological processes may influence non‐marine turtle richness independent of diversification rates, but they are probably related to dispersal abilities. However, colonization time was also an important component that must be taken into account. Finally, our study provided additional support for the importance of ecological (climate and productivity) and historical (time‐for‐speciation and dispersal) processes in shaping current biodiversity patterns.     

Interspecific patterns of species richness, geographic range size, and body size among New World venomous snakes

Many higher taxa exhibit latitudinal gradients in species richness, geographic range size, and body size. However, these variables are often interdependent, such that examinations of univariate or bivariate patterns alone may be misleading. Therefore, I examined latitudinal gradients in, and relationships between, species richness, geographic range size, and body size among 144 species of New World venomous snakes [families Elapidae (coral snakes) and Viperidae (pitvipers)]. Both lineages are monophyletic, collectively span 99° of latitude, and are extremely variable in body size and geographic range sizes. Coral snakes exhibit highest species richness near the equator, while pitviper species richness peaks in Central America. Species – range size distributions were strongly right-skewed for both families. There was little support for Bergmann's rule or Rapoport's rule for snakes of either family, as neither body size nor range size increased significantly with latitude. However, range area and median range latitude were positively correlated above 15° N, indicating a possible "Rapoport effect" at high northern latitudes. Geographic range size was positively associated with body size. Available continental area strongly influenced range size. Comparative (phylogenetically-based) analyses revealed that shared history is a poor predictor of range size variation within clades. Among vipers, trends in geographic range sizes may have been structured more by historical biogeography than by macroecological biotic factors.     

Elevational diversity patterns as an example for evolutionary and ecological dynamics in ferns and lycophytes

Evolutionary processes such as adaptation, ecological filtering, and niche conservatism involve the interaction of organisms with their environment and are thus commonly studied along environmental gradients. Elevational gradients have become among the most studied environmental gradients to understand large-scale patterns of species richness and composition because they are highly replicated with different combinations of geographical, environmental and historical factors. We here review the literature on using elevational gradients to understand evolutionary processes in ferns. Some phylogenetic studies of individual fern clades have considered elevation in the analysis or interpretation and postulated that fern diversification is linked to the colonization of mountain habitats. Other studies that have linked elevational community composition and hence ecological filtering with phylogenetic community composition and morphological traits, usually only found limited phylogenetic signal. However, these studies are ultimately only correlational, and there are few actual tests of the evolutionary mechanisms leading to these patterns. We identify a number of challenges for improving our understanding of how evolutionary and ecological processes are linked to elevational richness patterns in ferns: i) limited information on traits and their ecological relevance, ii) uncertainties on the dispersal kernels of ferns and hence the delimitation of regional species pools from which local assemblages are recruited, iii) limited genomic data to identify candidate genes under selection and hence actually document adaptation and selection, and iv) conceptual challenges in developing clear and testable hypotheses to how specific evolutionary processes can be linked to patterns in community composition and species richness.     

Phylogeny,niche conservatism and the latitudinal diversity gradient in mammals

Biologists have long searched for mechanisms responsible for the increase in species richness with decreasing latitude. The strong correlation between species richness and climate is frequently interpreted as reflecting a causal link via processes linked to energy or evolutionary rates. Here, we investigate how the aggregation of clades, as dictated by phylogeny, can give rise to significant climate–richness gradients without gradients in diversification or environmental carrying capacity. The relationship between climate and species richness varies considerably between clades, regions and time periods in a global-scale phylogenetically informed analysis of all terrestrial mammal species. Many young clades show negative richness–temperature slopes (more species at cooler temperatures), with the ages of these clades coinciding with the expansion of temperate climate zones in the late Eocene. In carnivores, we find steeply positive richness–temperature slopes in clades with restricted distributions and tropical origins (e.g. cat clade), whereas widespread, temperate clades exhibit shallow, negative slopes (e.g. dog–bear clade). We show that the slope of the global climate–richness gradient in mammals is driven by aggregating Chiroptera (bats) with their Eutherian sister group. Our findings indicate that the evolutionary history should be accounted for as part of any search for causal links between environment and species richness.     

Climate, niche conservatism, and the global bird diversity gradient

We tested the proposition that there are more species in the tropics because basal clades adapted to warm paleoclimates have been lost in regions now experiencing cool climates. Molecular phylogenies were used to classify species as "basal" and "derived" based on their family, and their richness patterns were contrasted. Path models also evaluated environmental predictors of richness patterns. As predicted, basal clades are more diverse in the lowland tropics, whereas derived clades are more diverse in the extratropics and high-altitude tropics. Seventy-four percent of the variation in bird richness was explained by environmental variables, but models differed for basal and derived groups. The overall gradient is described by the spatial pattern of basal clades, although there are differences in the Old and New Worlds. We conclude that in ecological time, the global richness gradient reflects birds' responses to climatic gradients, partially operating via plants. Over evolutionary time, the gradient primarily reflects the extirpation of species in older clades from parts of the world that have become cooler in the present. A strong secondary effect arises from dispersal of clades from centers of origin and subsequent radiations. Overall, the diversity gradient is well explained by niche conservatism and the "time-for-speciation" hypothesis.     

Why do mountains support so many species of birds?

Although topographic complexity is often associated with high bird diversity at broad geographic scales, little is known about the relative contributions of geomorphologic heterogeneity and altitudinal climatic gradients found in mountains. We analysed the birds in the western mountains of the New World to examine the two‐fold effect of topography on species richness patterns, using two grains at the intercontinental extent and within temperate and tropical latitudes. Birds were also classified as montane or lowland, based on their overall distributions in the hemisphere. We estimated range in temperature within each cell and the standard deviation in elevation (topographic roughness) based on all pixels within each cell. We used path analysis to test for the independent effects of topographic roughness and temperature range on species richness while controlling for the collinearity between topographic variables. At the intercontinental extent, actual evapotranspiration (AET) was the primary driver of species richness patterns of all species taken together and of lowland species considered separately. In contrast, within‐cell temperature gradients strongly influenced the richness of montane species. Regional partitioning of the data also suggested that range in temperature either by itself or acting in combination with AET had the strongest “effect” on montane bird species richness everywhere. Topographic roughness had weaker “effects” on richness variation throughout, although its positive relationship with richness increased slightly in the tropics. We conclude that bird diversity gradients in mountains primarily reflect local climatic gradients. Widespread (lowland) species and narrow‐ranged (montane) species respond similarly to changes in the environment, differing only in that the richness of lowland species correlates better with broad‐scale climatic effects (AET), whereas mesoscale climatic variation accounts for richness patterns of montane species. Thus, latitudinal and altitudinal gradients in species richness can be explained through similar climatic‐based processes, as has long been argued.     

Post-Eocene climate change, niche conservatism, and the latitudinal diversity gradient of New World birds

Aim The aim of this study was to test a variant of the evolutionary time hypothesis for the bird latitudinal diversity gradient derived from the effects of niche conservatism in the face of global climate change over evolutionary time. Location The Western Hemisphere. Methods We used digitized range maps of breeding birds to estimate the species richness at two grain sizes, 756 and 12,100 km². We then used molecular phylogenies resolved to family to quantify the root distance (RD) of each species as a measure of its level of evolutionary development. Birds were classified as ‘basal’ or ‘derived’ based on the RD of their family, and richness patterns were contrasted for the most basal and most derived 30% of species. We also generated temperature estimates for the Palaeogene across the Western Hemisphere to examine how spatial covariation between past and present climates might make it difficult to distinguish between ecological and evolutionary hypotheses for the current richness gradient. Results The warm, wet tropics support many species from basal bird clades, whereas the northern temperate zone and cool or dry tropics are dominated by species from more recent, evolutionarily derived clades. Furthermore, crucial to evaluating how niche conservatism among birds may drive the hemispherical richness gradient, the spatial structure of the richness gradient for basal groups is statistically indistinguishable from the overall gradient, whereas the richness gradient for derived groups is much shallower than the overall gradient. Finally, modern temperatures and the pattern of climate cooling since the Eocene are indistinguishable as predictors of bird species richness. Main conclusions Differences in the richness gradients of basal vs. derived clades suggest that the hemispherical gradient has been strongly influenced by the differential extirpation of species in older, warm‐adapted clades from parts of the world that have become cooler in the present. We propose that niche conservatism and global‐scale climate change over evolutionary time provide a parsimonious explanation for the contemporary bird latitudinal diversity gradient in the New World, although dispersal limitation of some highly derived clades probably plays a secondary role.     

Patterns of distribution for southern Australian marine echinoderms and decapods

Aim To relate patterns of distribution of marine echinoderms and decapods around southern Australia to major ecological and historical factors. Location Shallow‐water (0–100 m) marine waters off southern Australia, south of 30° S. Methods (1) Record the presence/absence of known echinoderm and decapod species in cells of c. 1° latitude and longitude, along the coast of southern mainland Australia and Tasmania. (2) Describe patterns in species composition, species richness and endemism through gradient analysis, ordination and cluster analysis. (3) Relate these patterns to distance and temperature gradients, the area of continental shelf, the average size of species range, and known historical factors. Results Species composition varied with both latitude and longitude. Species richness was relatively constant from east to west but graded with latitude from high in the warm‐temperate regions around Perth and Sydney to low in cool‐temperate southern Tasmania. Species richness was not related to the area of continental shelf or average species range size. Species turnover was not correlated with rates of temperature change. It was problematic to separate distance from temperature gradients, but there was evidence that the southern distribution limits of some species are related to minimum sea surface temperature. Within the taxonomic groups surveyed, evolutionary radiation has been largely limited to a few cosmopolitan species‐rich genera. Main conclusions There are historical as well as ecological hypotheses explaining the latitudinal gradient of marine species richness in southern Australia: (1) the continual invasion and speciation of species of tropical origin as Australia has split from Gondwana and drifted northward; (2) progressive extinction of some Gondwanan cool‐temperate species at the limits of their range; (3) low level of immigration of additional cool‐temperate species; and (4) some in situ endemic speciation.     

Energy, range dynamics and global species richness patterns: reconciling mid-domain effects and environmental determinants of avian diversity

Spatial patterns of species richness follow climatic and environmental variation, but could reflect random dynamics of species ranges (the mid-domain effect, MDE). Using data on the global distribution of birds, we compared predictions based on energy availability (actual evapotranspiration, AET, the best single correlate of avian richness) with those of range dynamics models. MDE operating within the global terrestrial area provides a poor prediction of richness variation, but if it operates separately within traditional biogeographic realms, it explains more global variation in richness than AET. The best predictions, however, are given by a model of global range dynamics modulated by AET, such that the probability of a range spreading into an area is proportional to its AET. This model also accurately predicts the latitudinal variation in species richness and variation of species richness both within and between realms, thus representing a compelling mechanism for the major trends in global biodiversity.     

Can stochastic geographical evolution re‐create macroecological richness–environment correlations?

Aim Richness gradients are frequently correlated with environmental characteristics at broad geographic scales. In particular, richness is often associated with energy and climate, while environmental heterogeneity is rarely its best correlate. These correlations have been interpreted as evidence in favour of environmental determinants of diversity gradients, particularly energy and climate. This interpretation assumes that the expected‐by‐random correlation between richness and environment is zero, and that this is equally true for all environmental characteristics. However, these expectations might be unrealistic. We investigated to what degree basic evolutionary/biogeographical processes occurring independently of environment could lead to richness gradients that correlate with environmental characteristics by chance alone. Location Africa, Australia, Eurasia and the New World. Methods We produced artificial richness gradients based on a stochastic simulation model of geographic diversification of clades. In these simulations, species speciate, go extinct and expand or shift their distributions independently of any environmental characteristic. One thousand two hundred repetitions of this model were run, and the resulting stochastic richness gradients were regressed against real‐world environmental variables. Stochastic species–environment relationships were then compared among continents and among three environmental characteristics: energy, environmental heterogeneity and climate seasonality. Results Simulations suggested that a significant degree of correlation between richness gradients and environment is expected even when clades diversify and species distribute stochastically. These correlations vary considerably in strength; but in the best cases, environment can spuriously account for almost 80% of variation in stochastic richness. Additionally, expected‐by‐chance relationships were different among continents and environmental characteristics, producing stronger spurious relationships with energy and climate than with heterogeneity. Main conclusions We conclude that some features of empirical species–environment relationships can be reproduced just by chance when taking into account evolutionary/biogeographical processes underlying the construction of species richness gradients. Future tests of environmental effects on richness should consider structure in richness–environment correlations that can be produced by simple evolutionary null models. Research should move away from the naive non‐biological null hypotheses that are implicit in traditional statistical tests.     

Effects of an adaptive zone shift on morphological and ecological diversification in terapontid fishes

A fundamental goal of evolutionary ecology is understanding the processes responsible for contemporary patterns of morphological diversity and species richness. Transitions across the marine–freshwater interface are regarded as key triggers for adaptive radiation of many clades. Using the Australian terapontid fish family as a model system we employed phylogenetic analyses to compare the rates of ecological (dietary) and morphological evolution between marine and freshwater species of the family. Results suggested significantly higher rates of phenotypic evolution in key dietary and morphological characters in freshwater species compared to marine counterparts. Moreover, there was significant correlation between several of these dietary and morphological characters, suggesting an underlying ecomorphological aspect to these greater rates of phenotypic evolution in freshwater clades. Australia’s biogeographic history, which has precluded colonisation by many of the major ostariophysan fish families that make up much global freshwater fish diversity, appears to have provided the requisite ‘ecological opportunity’ to facilitate the radiation of invading marine-derived fish clades.     

Water links the historical and contemporary components of the Australian bird diversity gradient

Aim To document the geographical structure of the historical signal in the continental species richness gradient of birds and evaluate the influences of contemporary and historical climatic conditions on the generation and maintenance of the richness pattern. Location Australia. Methods We used range maps of breeding birds to generate the spatial pattern of species richness at four grain sizes, and two molecular phylogenies to measure the level of evolutionary development of avifaunas at each grain size. We then used simple correlation and path analysis to generate a statistical model of species richness using environmental predictor variables and compared the spatial patterns of richness and mean evolutionary development to identify possible environmental links between richness and net diversification rates across the continent. Results The contemporary richness pattern is well explained statistically by actual evapotranspiration (a measure of water–energy balance), operating both directly and indirectly through plant production, and this is robust to the spatial resolution of the analysis. Further, species richness and the mean level of evolutionary development of faunas show a strong spatial correspondence, such that dry areas support both fewer species and species from more highly derived families, whereas wet areas support more species of both basal and derived families. The evolutionary pattern conforms to a similar pattern known for plants and is probably explained by the increase in aridity in western and central Australia arising in the Miocene. Main conclusion The contemporary bird richness gradient contains a historical signal and reflects the effects of both current levels of water availability as well as changes in rainfall patterns extending over evolutionary time. The historical signal persists even in the absence of obvious hard barriers to dispersal.     

Introduced weed richness across altitudinal gradients in Hawai’i: humps,humans and water-energy dynamics

Native species richness commonly declines with increasing altitude, but patterns of introduced species richness across altitudinal gradients have been less frequently studied. We surveyed introduced roadside weeds along altitudinal transects ranging from 30 to 4,100 m in Hawai’i, with the objectives of (1) testing the hypothesis that a mass effect due to mixing of tropical and temperate species at mid-elevation promotes a hump-shaped pattern of introduced species richness with altitude, and (2) testing the potential roles of anthropogenic activity, energy (temperature) and water-energy dynamics (productivity-diversity hypothesis) in determining introduced weed richness. A total of 178 introduced weeds were recorded. Introduced weed richness does not decline monotonically with altitude. Rather, mixing of tropical and temperate species helps to maintain high mean richness up to 2,000 m, suggesting a mass effect, but without a distinct richness peak. Patchy occurrence of a transformer species, Pennisetum clandestinum, introduced high variance in richness at mid-elevations. General linear models considering estimated actual evapotranspiration (AET, a measure of energy-water dynamics) together with an index of human activity (distance from urban area or length of major roads) accounted for more variance in introduced weed richness than models with energy alone (temperature) and human activity. Native Hawaiian species richness along roadsides was also weakly correlated with AET but negatively associated with human activity. Our observed association between introduced species richness and AET mirrors patterns reported for native species richness around the world, indicating that AET-richness patterns can develop on a short time scale (on the order of 100 years). To test the generality of introduced weed richness patterns, we tried using the Hawai’i island model to predict weed richness on the neighboring island of Maui. Although weed richness on Maui was under-predicted, the same predictors (human activity and AET) were important on Maui. Scaling for differences in regional human population density or economic activity (both higher on Maui) may allow more accurate and transferable quantitative predictions of introduced weed richness patterns.     

Global gradients in vertebrate diversity predicted by historical area-productivity dynamics and contemporary environment

Broad-scale geographic gradients in species richness have now been extensively documented, but their historical underpinning is still not well understood. While the importance of productivity, temperature, and a scale dependence of the determinants of diversity is broadly acknowledged, we argue here that limitation to a single analysis scale and data pseudo-replication have impeded an integrated evolutionary and ecological understanding of diversity gradients. We develop and apply a hierarchical analysis framework for global diversity gradients that incorporates an explicit accounting of past environmental variation and provides an appropriate measurement of richness. Due to environmental niche conservatism, organisms generally reside in climatically defined bioregions, or "evolutionary arenas," characterized by in situ speciation and extinction. These bioregions differ in age and their total productivity and have varied over time in area and energy available for diversification. We show that, consistently across the four major terrestrial vertebrate groups, current-day species richness of the world's main 32 bioregions is best explained by a model that integrates area and productivity over geological time together with temperature. Adding finer scale variation in energy availability as an ecological predictor of within-bioregional patterns of richness explains much of the remaining global variation in richness at the 110 km grain. These results highlight the separate evolutionary and ecological effects of energy availability and provide a first conceptual and empirical integration of the key drivers of broad-scale richness gradients. Avoiding the pseudo-replication that hampers the evolutionary interpretation of non-hierarchical macroecological analyses, our findings integrate evolutionary and ecological mechanisms at their most relevant scales and offer a new synthesis regarding global diversity gradients.