Population fluctuations of the western tent caterpillar in southwestern British Columbia

Cyclic populations of western tent caterpillars fluctuate with a periodicity of 6–11 years in southwestern British Columbia, Canada. Typically, larval survival is high in early stages of the population increase, begins to decline midway through the increase phase, and is low through several generations of the population decline. Fecundity is generally high in increasing and in peak populations but is also reduced during the population decline. Poor survival and low fecundity for several generations cause the lag in recovery of populations that is necessary for cyclic dynamics. The dynamics of tent caterpillar populations vary among sites, which suggests a metapopulation structure; island populations in the rainshadow of Vancouver Island have more consistent cyclic dynamics than mainland populations in British Columbia. Sudden outbreaks of populations that last a single year suggest that dispersal from source to sink populations may occur late in the phase of population increase. Wellington earlier discussed qualitative variation among tent caterpillar individuals as an aspect of population fluctuations. The variation in caterpillar activity he observed was largely statistically nonsignificant. Recent observations show that the frequency of elongate tents as described by Wellington to characterize active caterpillars varies among populations but does not change in a consistent pattern with population density. The level of infection from nucleopolyhedrovirus (NPV) was high in some populations at peak density but was not associated with all population declines. Sublethal infection can reduce the fecundity of surviving moths, and there is a weak association between viral infection and egg mass size in field populations. The impact of weather in synchronizing or desynchronizing populations is a factor to be investigated further. Received: May 25, 1999 / Accepted: March 28, 2000     

Changes in the fecundity of tent caterpillars: a correlated character of disease resistance or sublethal effect of disease?

Over the fluctuation in population density of tent caterpillars, Malacosoma californicum pluviale and M. disstria, fecundity changes from being high at peak density to low for several years during the decline. During the increase phase, fecundity rapidly returns to moderately high levels with a further increase occurring to-ward the end of the increase phase. Two hypotheses which might explain these shifts are that (1) mortality from viral disease which is common during population declines selects for resistant individuals with low fecundity as an associated characteristic, and (2) sublethal viral disease reduces fecundity of moths during population decline. In this study we observed rapid shifts in the frequencies of large and small egg masses and in the mean fecundity between different phases of the population fluctuation. Viral disease was more common in caterpillars from small egg masses of the forest tent caterpillar. These observations are consistent with the hypothesis that sublethal effects of virus reduce the fecundity of moths during the population decline, but high fecundity is quickly restored when disease is rare during the population increase.     

Probabilistic methods for addressing uncertainty and variability in biological models: application to a toxicokinetic model

Population variability and uncertainty are important features of biological systems that must be considered when developing mathematical models for these systems. In this paper we present probability-based parameter estimation methods that account for such variability and uncertainty. Theoretical results that establish well-posedness and stability for these methods are discussed. A probabilistic parameter estimation technique is then applied to a toxicokinetic model for trichloroethylene using several types of simulated data. Comparison with results obtained using a standard, deterministic parameter estimation method suggests that the probabilistic methods are better able to capture population variability and uncertainty in model parameters.     

How host plant variability influences the advantages to learning: a theoretical model for oviposition behaviour in Lepidoptera

Learning can allow individuals to increase their fitness in particular environments. The advantage to learning depends on the predictability of the environment and the extent to which animals can adjust their behaviour. Earlier general models have investigated when environmental predictability might favour the evolution of learning in foraging animals. Here, we construct a theoretical model that predicts the advantages to learning using a specific biological example: oviposition in the Lepidoptera. Our model includes environmental and behavioural complexities relevant to host selection in these insects and tests whether the predictions of the general models still hold. Our results demonstrate how the advantage of learning is maximised when within-generation variability is minimised (the local environment consists mainly of a single host plant species) and between-generation variability is maximised (different host plant species are the most common in different generations). We discuss how our results: (a) can be applied to recent empirical work in different lepidopteran species and (b) predict an important role of learning in lepidopteran agricultural pests.     

Uncertainty and predictability in population dynamics of a bitrophic ecological model: Mixed-mode oscillations,bistability and sensitivity to parameters

We consider a two-trophic ecological model comprising of two predators competing for their common prey. We cast the model into the framework of a singular perturbed system of equations in one fast variable (prey population density) and two slow variables (predator population densities), mimicking the common observation that the per-capita productivity rate decreases from bottom to top along the trophic levels in Nature. We assume that both predators exhibit Holling II functional response with one of the predators (territorial) having a density dependent mortality rate. Depending on the system parameters, the model exhibits small, intermediate and/or large fluctuations in the population densities. The large fluctuations correspond to periodic population outbreaks followed by collapses (commonly known as cycles of “boom and bust”). The small fluctuations arise due to a singular Hopf bifurcation in the system, and are ecologically more desirable. However, more interestingly, the system exhibits mixed-mode oscillations (which are concatenations of the large amplitude oscillations and the small amplitude oscillations) that indicate the adaptability of the species to prolong the time gap between successive cycles of boom and bust. Numerical simulations are carried out to demonstrate the extreme sensitivity of the system to initial conditions (chaos and bistability of limit cycles are observed) as well as to the system parameters (here we only show the sensitivity to the density dependent mortality rate of the territorial predator). This model throws light at the uncertainties in long term behaviors that are associated with a real ecological system. We show that even very small changes in the system parameters due to natural or human-induced causes can lead to a complete different ecological phenomenon, thus affecting the predictability of the density of the prey population. In this paper, we explain the mechanisms behind the irregular fluctuations in the population sizes in an attempt to understand the dynamics occurring in a natural population and also comment on the inherent uncertainties associated with the system.     

Phase locking, the Moran effect and distance decay of synchrony: experimental tests in a model system

Spatially separated populations of many species fluctuate synchronously. Synchrony typically decays with increasing interpopulation distance. Spatial synchrony, and its distance decay, might reflect distance decay of environmental synchrony (the Moran effect), and/or short-distance dispersal. However, short-distance dispersal can synchronize entire metapopulations if within-patch dynamics are cyclic, a phenomenon known as phase locking. We manipulated the presence/absence of short-distance dispersal and spatially decaying environmental synchrony and examined their separate and interactive effects on the synchrony of the protist prey species Tetrahymena pyriformis growing in spatial arrays of patches (laboratory microcosms). The protist predator Euplotes patella consumed Tetrahymena and generated predator-prey cycles. Dispersal increased prey synchrony uniformly over both short and long distances, and did so by entraining the phases of the predator-prey cycles. The Moran effect also increased prey synchrony, but only over short distances where environmental synchrony was strongest, and did so by increasing the synchrony of stochastic fluctuations superimposed on the predator-prey cycle. Our results provide the first experimental demonstration of distance decay of synchrony due to distance decay of the Moran effect. Distance decay of the Moran effect likely explains distance decay of synchrony in many natural systems. Our results also provide an experimental demonstration of long-distance phase locking, and explain why cyclic populations provide many of the most dramatic examples of long-distance spatial synchrony in nature.     

How climate change affects the occurrence of a second generation in the univoltine Pyrrhocoris apterus (Heteroptera: Pyrrhocoridae)

1. Understanding the conditions that allow for the occurrence of an additional generation in populations that are usually univoltine is important under the present climate warming. In temperate areas, a second generation is enabled through the emergence of a time window that opens when first-generation individuals are ready to reproduce and closes when second-generation individuals cannot complete development before the onset of winter. 2. The conditions that limit the width of this window were studied in Pyrrhocoris apterus (Heteroptera: Pyrrhocoridae), a ground-inhabiting heteropteran overwintering in facultative adult diapause, whose populations in Central Europe have typically been univoltine until the 1980s. 3. The frequency of females of the first generation that started to lay eggs decreased from 70% in June to zero in early August, but oviposition of these females continued until the end of August. Using thermal constants for egg–adult development and temperature data, this study found that the development of most second-generation individuals could only be completed before the start of winter if hastened through behavioural thermoregulation. 4. Consequences of temperature increase on the width of the thermal window were calculated. Increasing temperature causes the time window to open earlier and close later by accelerating maturation of first-generation females and improving conditions for maturing of the second-generation individuals in late summer and autumn. 5. Climate warming will create conditions that facilitate the occurrence of a second generation in a year in typically univoltine populations of this species.     

DUM neurons in locust flight: a model system for amine-mediated peripheral adjustments to the requirements of a central motor program

In both vertebrates and invertebrates, multiple effects of biogenic amines on neuromuscular transmission, muscle contraction kinetics and metabolism have been described. Nevertheless, it is not yet known whether and how these different effects work in concert during the performance of a specific behavior. In the locust flight system, the biogenic amine octopamine is released as a neurohormone into the haemolymph, and also delivered directly onto specific target muscles by individually identified dorsal unpaired median neurons. Determining the connectivity of these neurons and their activation during behavior, we show for the first time that different types of dorsal unpaired median neurons are differentially connected to certain components of the flight circuitry. During flight, all types of pterothoracic dorsal unpaired median neurons innervating flight muscles receive inhibitory inputs from tegula proprioceptive afferents and from the central flight circuitry, whereas all other types of dorsal unpaired median neurons are excited by wind-sensitive pathways and by the central pattern generator. Considering the results of other studies which investigated metabolic effects of octopamine, we propose a model in which the differential activation of dorsal unpaired median neurons during flight may lead to an adequately controlled release or removal of octopamine to adjust metabolic processes to the requirements of a specific motor program. Accepted: 24 February 1999     

Extrapolating leaf CO2 exchange to the canopy: a generalized model of forest photosynthesis compared with measurements by eddy correlation

Over the last 4 years, two data sets have emerged which allow increased accuracy and resolution in the definition and validation of a photosynthesis model for whole forest canopies. The first is a greatly expanded set of data on the nitrogen-photosynthesis relationship for temperate and tropical woody species. The second is a unique set of long-term (4 year) daily carbon balance measurements at the Harvard Forest, Petersham, Massachusetts, collected by the eddy-correlation technique. A model (PhET-Day) is presented which is derived directly from, and validated against, these data sets. The PnET-Day model uses foliar nitrogen concentration to calculate maximum instantaneous rates of gross and net photosynthesis which are then reduced for suboptimal temperature, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), and vapor pressure deficit (VPD). Predicted daily gross photosynthesis is closely related to gross carbon exchange at the Harvard Forest as determined by eddy-correlation measurements. Predictions made by the full canopy model were significantly better than those produced by a multiple linear regression model. Sensitivity analyses for this model for a deciduous broad-leaved forest showed results to be much more sensitive to parameters related to maximum leaf-level photosynthetic rate (A _max) than to those related to light, temperature, VPD or total foliar mass. Aggregation analyses suggest that using monthly mean climatic data to drive the canopy model will give results similar to those achieved by averaging daily eddy correlation measurements of gross carbon exchange (GCE).     

Predicting the population dynamics of the house dust mite Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus (Acari: Pyroglyphidae) in response to a constant hygrothermal environment using a model of the mite life cycle

A generalised model of the life cycle of a house dust mite, which can be tailored to any particular species of domestic mite, is presented. The model takes into account the effects of hygrothermal conditions on each life cycle phase. It is used in a computer simulation program, called POPMITE, which, by incorporating a population age structure, is able to predict population dynamics. The POPMITE simulation is adapted to the Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus (Acari: Pyroglyphidae) (DP) mite using published data on the egg development period, total development period, adult longevity, mortality during egg development, mortality during juvenile development, and fecundity of individual DP mites held at a range of constant hygrothermal conditions. An example is given which illustrates how the model functions under constant hygrothermal conditions. A preliminary validation of POPMITE is made by a comparison of the POPMITE predictions with published measurements of population growth of DP mites held at a range constant hygrothermal conditions for 21 days. The POPMITE simulation is used to provide predictions of population growth or decline for a wide range of constant relative humidity and temperature combinations for 30 and 60 days. The adaptation of the model to correctly take account of fluctuating hygrothermal conditions is discussed.     

Life history in a model system: opening the black box with Arabidopsis thaliana

A broad research programme in Arabidopsis thaliana has provided estimates of selection on specific alleles in specific contexts, and identified geographic patterns of alleles in genes linked to timing of flowering. A closely related field has successfully captured many key axes of the evolution of timing of flowering in other monocarpic species through statistical and demographic modelling of large empirical databases. There has as yet been no synthesis between these two fields. Here we examine ways in which the two fields inform each other, and how this synergy will shape our knowledge of life-history evolution as a whole.     

土壤中微生物植酸酶的活性及其提高方法与应用

磷是有限不可再生资源,土壤缺磷是植物生长和农作物生产的主要限制因子之一。无机磷肥施入土壤后,极易被土壤固相吸附或与金属阳离子形成难溶性络合物或转化为有机磷,导致其生物可利用性降低。土壤磷主要以有机磷形式存在,占比20%-80%。有机磷又以植酸(盐)为主要成分,占比约50%。植酸不可被植物直接吸收利用,需在专一性酶植酸酶作用下经脱磷酸化水解释放磷供植物吸收。土壤植酸酶主要来源于微生物,易受温度、pH、土壤吸附、钙含量及钙磷比、底物含量和有效性等影响,导致酶活降低甚至失活。如何保持或提高土壤中植酸酶活性,进而提高土壤内源植酸磷的利用率,对降低外源磷肥施加和保障农业生产具有重要意义。本文综述微生物植酸酶的来源、分类与作用机制及土壤中植酸酶活性的影响因素,重点阐述保持或提高其活性的方法及实际应用效率。针对土壤植酸酶活性低和稳定性差的问题,对通过调控最适pH范围、提高热稳定性、将植酸酶负载于纳米材料和基因工程改造等改善植酸酶性质的方法进行展望。综述内容可为理解土壤中植酸酶活性的影响因素,进而提高土壤内源植酸磷的利用效率提供理论依据和技术参考,对减少外源磷肥施用、降低磷流失和土壤面源/水体污染风险及保障农业可持续发展具有一定的现实意义。     

The exponential‐Poisson model for recurrent event data: An application to a set of data on malaria in Brazil

In this paper, we introduce a new model for recurrent event data characterized by a baseline rate function fully parametric, which is based on the exponential‐Poisson distribution. The model arises from a latent competing risk scenario, in the sense that there is no information about which cause was responsible for the event occurrence. Then, the time of each recurrence is given by the minimum lifetime value among all latent causes. The new model has a particular case, which is the classical homogeneous Poisson process. The properties of the proposed model are discussed, including its hazard rate function, survival function, and ordinary moments. The inferential procedure is based on the maximum likelihood approach. We consider an important issue of model selection between the proposed model and its particular case by the likelihood ratio test and score test. Goodness of fit of the recurrent event models is assessed using Cox‐Snell residuals. A simulation study evaluates the performance of the estimation procedure in the presence of a small and moderate sample sizes. Applications on two real data sets are provided to illustrate the proposed methodology. One of them, first analyzed by our team of researchers, considers the data concerning the recurrence of malaria, which is an infectious disease caused by a protozoan parasite that infects red blood cells.     

Instrumental test to estimate a model of forecast yield: a non-parametric application to the pollen index in South Italy

A statistical test is described to verify the characteristics of the biological information contained in the dynamics of the flowering process. The test focuses on interactions between the pollen index and climatic variables to investigate if the biological indicator can synthesise the information of the pre-flowering phases. The multiple-regression model is built upon two pre-flowering climate macro-indicators extracted by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the optimised pollen index is obtained by non-parametric estimation. The empirical analysis is applied to 15 stations located in southern Italy in regions that have a longstanding tradition of olive production. Using the variance explained, we find that an optimised pollen index is fairly well predicted by the pre-flowering climatic data. We conclude that the optimised pollen index makes more parsimonious the modelling for predicting olive production.     

The net carbon flux due to deforestation and forest re-growth in the Brazilian Amazon: analysis using a process-based model

We developed a process‐based model of forest growth, carbon cycling and land‐cover dynamics named CARLUC (for CARbon and Land‐Use Change) to estimate the size of terrestrial carbon pools in terra firme (nonflooded) forests across the Brazilian Legal Amazon and the net flux of carbon resulting from forest disturbance and forest recovery from disturbance. Our goal in building the model was to construct a relatively simple ecosystem model that would respond to soil and climatic heterogeneity that allows us to study the impact of Amazonian deforestation, selective logging and accidental fire on the global carbon cycle. This paper focuses on the net flux caused by deforestation and forest re‐growth over the period from 1970 to 1998. We calculate that the net flux to the atmosphere during this period reached a maximum of ～0.35 PgC yr^?1 (1 PgC= 1 × 10¹⁵ gC) in 1990, with a cumulative release of ～7 PgC from 1970 to 1998. The net flux is higher than predicted by an earlier study ( Houghton et al., 2000 ) by a total of 1 PgC over the period 1989–1998 mainly because CARLUC predicts relatively high mature forest carbon storage compared with the datasets used in the earlier study. Incorporating the dynamics of litter and soil carbon pools into the model increases the cumulative net flux by～1 PgC from 1970 to 1998, while different assumptions about land‐cover dynamics only caused small changes. The uncertainty of the net flux, calculated with a Monte‐Carlo approach, is roughly 35% of the mean value (1 SD).     

Simple representation of physiological regulations in a model of lactating female: application to the dairy goat

A dynamic model of the lactating dairy goat, combining a minimum of mechanistic representations of homeorhetic regulations and a long-term approach, was developed. It describes (i) the main changes in body weight, dry-matter intake, milk production and composition of a dairy goat; (ii) the succession of pregnancy and lactation throughout the productive life; and (iii) the major changes in dynamics induced by the female profile (production potential and body weight at maturity). The model adopts a 'pull' approach including a systematic expression of the production potential and not representing any feed limitation. It involves three sub-systems. The reproductive events sub-system drives the dynamics through time with three major events: service, kidding and drying off. It also accounts for the effect of production potential (kg of milk at the peak of lactation) and lactation number (potential reached at the fourth lactation). The regulating sub-system represents the homeorhetic mechanisms during pregnancy and lactation with two sets of theoretical hormones, one representing gestation and the other lactation. The operating sub-system describes the main physiological flows and the energetic requirements linked to these functions through a compartmental structure. Simulations were run in order to test (i) the behaviour of the model at the scale of the productive life for an average profile of female (60 kg at maturity and 4 kg of milk at peak); (ii) the sensitivity of the simulated dynamics (mainly milk production and body reserves) to the production potential and body weight at maturity; (iii) external validation with comparison of model outputs to data from the experimental flock of Grignon and data from the French milk record organization (French organism in charge of animal recording for dairy farmers). The results at the scale of one productive life show the model simulates a relevant set of dynamics. The sensitivity analysis suggests that the model fairly well simulates the link between a female's ability to produce and mobilise reserves. Finally, external validation confirms the model's ability to simulate a relevant set of physiological dynamics while pointing out some limits of the model (simulation of milk fat and protein content dynamics, for example). The results illustrate the relevance of the model in simulating biological dynamics and confirm the possibility of including minimum representations of homeorhetic regulations with a simple structure. This simplicity gives an opportunity to integrate this basic element in a herd simulator and test interactions between females' regulations and management rules.