Anthropogenic fires increase alien and native annual species in the Chilean coastal matorral

Aim We tested the hypothesis that anthropogenic fires favour the successful establishment of alien annual species to the detriment of natives in the Chilean coastal matorral. Location Valparaíso Region, central Chile. Methods We sampled seed rain, seedbank emergence and establishment of species in four paired burned and unburned areas and compared (using GLMM) fire resistance and propagule arrival of alien and native species. To assess the relative importance of seed dispersal and seedbank survival in explaining plant establishment after fire, we compared seed rain and seedbank structure with post‐fire vegetation using ordination analyses. Results Fire did not change the proportion of alien species in the coastal matorral. However, fire increased the number of annual species (natives and aliens) of which 87% were aliens. Fire reduced the alien seedbank and not the native seedbank, but alien species remained dominant in burned soil samples (66% of the total species richness). Seed rain was higher for alien annuals than for native annuals or perennials, thus contributing to their establishment after fire. Nevertheless, seed rain was less important than seedbank survival in explaining plant establishment in burned areas. Main conclusions Anthropogenic fires favoured alien and native annuals. Thus, fire did not increase the alien/native ratio but increased the richness of alien species. The successful establishment of alien annuals was attributable to their ability to maintain rich seedbanks in burned areas and to the greater propagule arrival compared to native species. The native seedbank also survived fire, indicating that the herbaceous community has become highly resilient after centuries of human disturbances. Our results demonstrate that fire is a relevant factor for the maintenance of alien‐dominated grasslands in the matorral and highlight the importance of considering the interactive effect of seed rain and seedbank survival to understand plant invasion patterns in fire‐prone ecosystems.     

Residence time and human-mediated propagule pressure at work in the alien flora of Galapagos

Introduced species present the greatest threat to the unique terrestrial biodiversity of the Galapagos Islands. We assess the current status of plant invasion in Galapagos, predict the likelihood of future naturalizations and invasions from the existing introduced flora, and suggest measures to help limit future invasions. There has been a 1.46 fold increase in plant biodiversity in Galapagos due to alien plant naturalizations, reflecting a similar trend on islands elsewhere. There are 870 alien plant species recorded in the archipelago. Of evaluated species, 34% species have naturalized. Within this group are the invasive species (16% of evaluated) and the transformers (3.3% of evaluated). We show that, as expected, naturalized species have been present in the archipelago longer than non-naturalized species. We also find that a higher human-mediated propagule pressure is associated with a greater human population and with properties that have been settled longer. This, combined with the relatively recent introduction of most species, leads us to the conclusion that Galapagos is at an early stage of plant invasion. We predict that more species from the existing alien flora will find an opportunity to naturalize and invade as propagule pressure increases alongside rapid human population growth associated with immigration to serve the booming tourism industry. In order to reduce future invasion risk, we suggest reviewing inter-island quarantine measures and continuing community education efforts to reduce human-mediated propagule pressure.     

Propagule pressure governs establishment of an invasive herb

The success of plant invasions may be limited by the availability of propagules and/or of suitable microsites, with microsite availability being affected by, for example, disturbance and interspecific competition. A mechanistic understanding of the contributions of propagule pressure and microsite limitation to plant invasions is therefore required to minimise future invasions. Here, we investigated the relative roles of propagule pressure, the availability of microsites, and their interaction on the establishment of an invasive herb, Lupinus polyphyllus, in two geographic regions representing different climate and growth conditions in Finland (a more productive southern region and a harsher central region). We carried out a field experiment in 14 L. polyphyllus populations, in which we manipulated both propagule pressure and disturbance. In a complementary greenhouse experiment, we manipulated propagule pressure and interspecific competition. Seedling establishment of L. polyphyllus was higher in the more productive southern region than in the harsher central region. The number of L. polyphyllus seedlings increased with increasing propagule pressure regardless of disturbance or interspecific competition. However, the number of L. polyphyllus seedlings per sown seed (relative establishment) tended to decrease with increasing propagule pressure, indicating that the positive effect of propagule pressure on early invasion is partially counteracted by density-dependent mortality at high seed densities. Our results highlight the dominant role of propagule pressure over disturbance and interspecific competition in the establishment of L. polyphyllus, suggesting that the early stage of invasion is limited by the availability of propagules rather than the availability of suitable microsites.     

Landscape context modulates alien plant invasion in Mediterranean forest edges

Natural habitats in human-altered landscapes are especially vulnerable to biological invasions, especially in their edges. We aim to understand the influence of landscape and local characteristics on biological invasions by exploring the level of plant invasion and alien species traits in forest edges in highly urbanized landscapes. We identified all plant species in 73 paired plots in the edge and 50 m towards the interior of the forest. We explored the association between alien species richness and similarity in species composition between edge and interior plots with landscape and local variables, using generalized linear models and variance partitioning techniques. Then, we performed Fourth-corner analyses to explore the association between alien plant traits and local and landscape variables. In contrast to native species richness, alien species richness was more affected by the surrounding landscape than by the local characteristics of the edge. Road proximity was positively associated with alien species richness and proportion and was its most important correlate, whereas disturbance was negatively associated with native species richness and was its most influential factor. Alien plant traits were also primarily associated with landscape characteristics. For instance, species of Mediterranean origin and introduced for agriculture were associated with higher agriculture use in the landscape. Our findings suggest that risk analyses of habitat vulnerability to invasion must consider the landscape context in order to successfully predict highly invaded areas and identify potentially successful invaders.     

Environment and dispersal paths override life strategies and residence time in determining regional patterns of invasion by alien plants

We describe a novel dissimilarity framework to analyze spatial patterns of species diversity and illustrate it with alien plant invasions in Northern Portugal. We used this framework to test the hypothesis that patterns of alien invasive plant species richness and composition are differently affected by differences in climate, land use and landscape connectivity (i.e. Geographic distance as a proxy and vectorial objects that facilitate dispersal such as roads and rivers) between pairs of localities at the regional scale. We further evaluated possible effects of plant life strategies (Grime's C-S-R) and residence time. Each locality consisted of a 1 km² landscape mosaic in which all alien invasive species were recorded by visiting all habitat types.Multi-model inference revealed that dissimilarity in species richness is more influenced by environmental distance (particularly climate), whereas geographic distance (proxies for dispersal limitations) is more important to explain dissimilarity in species composition, with a prevailing role for ecotones and roads. However, only minor differences were found in the responses of the three C-S-R strategies. Some effect of residence time was found, but only for dissimilarity in species richness. Our results also indicated that environmental conditions (e.g. climate conditions) limit the number of alien species invading a given site, but that the presence of dispersal corridors determines the paths of invasion and therefore the pool of species reaching each site. As geographic distances (e.g. ecotones and roads) tend to explain invasion at our regional scale highlights the need to consider the management of alien invasions in the context of integrated landscape planning. Alien species management should include (but not be limited to) the mitigation of dispersal pathways along linear infrastructures. Our results therefore highlight potentially useful applications of the novel multimodel framework to the anticipation and management of plant invasions.     

A conceptual framework for understanding arthropod predator and parasitoid invasions

Arthropods make up the largest group of invasive alien species (IAS) worldwide. Although invasion research has been biased towards alien plants and vertebrates, it has suggested potential mechanisms for the success of IAS and provided a theoretical framework for further investigation. Here we address key concepts from invasion biology that are essential to our understanding of the success of invasive alien arthropod predators and parasitoids including human intervention, environmental characteristics, propagule pressure, biological traits, and biological interactions. To gain a greater understanding of the factors most likely to influence the different stages of invasion (arrival, establishment, and spread) for alien arthropod predators and parasitoids, we use a comparative approach to compare and contrast the differential success of invasions by alien phytophagous and carnivorous arthropods. Insights gained from this comparison suggest that future research will require a multitrophic approach in order to enhance our understanding of invasions at higher trophic levels.     

Inferring process from pattern in plant invasions: a semimechanistic model incorporating propagule pressure and environmental factors

Propagule pressure is intuitively a key factor in biological invasions: increased availability of propagules increases the chances of establishment, persistence, naturalization, and invasion. The role of propagule pressure relative to disturbance and various environmental factors is, however, difficult to quantify. We explored the relative importance of factors driving invasions using detailed data on the distribution and percentage cover of alien tree species on South Africa's Agulhas Plain (2,160 km2). Classification trees based on geology, climate, land use, and topography adequately explained distribution but not abundance (canopy cover) of three widespread invasive species (Acacia cyclops, Acacia saligna, and Pinus pinaster). A semimechanistic model was then developed to quantify the roles of propagule pressure and environmental heterogeneity in structuring invasion patterns. The intensity of propagule pressure (approximated by the distance from putative invasion foci) was a much better predictor of canopy cover than any environmental factor that was considered. The influence of environmental factors was then assessed on the residuals of the first model to determine how propagule pressure interacts with environmental factors. The mediating effect of environmental factors was species specific. Models combining propagule pressure and environmental factors successfully predicted more than 70% of the variation in canopy cover for each species.     

Restoration of invaded Cape Floristic Region riparian systems leads to a recovery in foliage-active arthropod alpha- and beta-diversity

The Cape Floristic Region of South Africa is a global biodiversity hotspot threatened by invasive alien plants (IAPs). We assessed the effect of plant invasions, and their subsequent clearing, on riparian arthropod diversity. Foliage-active arthropod communities were collected from two native and one invasive alien tree species. Alpha- and beta-diversity of their associated arthropod communities were compared between near pristine, Acacia-invaded and restored sites. Arthropod alpha-diversity at near pristine sites was higher than at restored sites, and was lowest at invaded sites. This was true for most arthropod taxonomic groups associated with all native tree species and suggests a general trend towards recovery in arthropod alpha-diversity after IAP removal. Overall, arthropod species turnover among sites was significantly influenced by plant invasions with communities at near pristine sites having higher turnover than those at restored and invaded sites. This pattern was not evident at the level of individual tree species. Although arthropod community composition was significantly influenced by plant invasions, only a few significant differences in arthropod community composition could be detected between restored and near pristine sites for all tree species and arthropod taxonomic groups. Assemblage composition on each tree species generally differed between sites with similar degrees of plant invasion indicating a strong turnover of arthropod communities across the landscape. Results further suggest that both arthropod alpha- and beta-diversity can recover after IAP removal, given sufficient time, but catchment signatures must be acknowledged when monitoring restoration recovery.     

Consistent Effects of Disturbance and Forest Edges on the Invasion of a Continental Rain Forest by Alien Plants

Continental tropical forests are thought to be resistant to alien plant invasion due to a lack of disturbance, or low propagule pressure from introduced species. We assessed the importance of disturbance and edge effects by surveying areas of submontane and lowland forest of Amani Nature Reserve in the East Usambara mountains, Tanzania. These areas are in the vicinity of Amani Botanic Garden (ABG)—a propagule source for many alien plant species. We surveyed three edges in the vicinity of the ABG plantations, using plots interspersed along multiple 250 m transects. Survey plots were either in secondary or seminatural forest, representing a difference in past disturbance). Alien plant species richness and abundance declined with increasing distance from forest edges, indicating that edge effects were important. In addition, the effect of distance on richness and abundance of alien species as adults was much smaller in seminatural than secondary forest, emphasizing that invasion of seminatural forest is less likely to occur. Abundance and occurrence of individual species showed broadly similar declines with increasing distance from the forest edge, and lower abundance in seminatural compared to secondary forest. Alien species were dominant in 15 percent of plots surveyed. As 28 percent of the Amani nature reserve forest is within 250 m of an edge, the importance of disturbance and edges could make a potentially large proportion of the forest vulnerable to alien species invasion.     

Recolonizing native wildlife facilitates exotic plant invasion into Singapore's rain forests

Halting biological invasions and rewilding extirpated native fauna are conservation interventions to bolster biodiversity, species interactions, and ecosystems. These actions are often considered separately and the potential for reintroduced wildlife to facilitate invasive plants has been largely overlooked. Here, we investigated the role of Singapore's recolonizing native wild pigs (Sus scrofa) in facilitating an invasive weed Miconia crenata into tropical rainforests, which are normally highly resistant to invasion. We conducted line-transect surveys in 11 Singaporean rain forests and used generalized linear mixed models to consider the contribution of pigs' soil disturbances, human forest paths, and other environmental covariates, on the density of M. crenata. We found that M. crenata was more abundant at forest edges and invasion into forest interior was facilitated by pigs, paths, and canopy gaps, but that these effects were all additive, not synergistic (i.e., not multiplicative). These results highlight how modern invasions are driven by multiple disturbances as well as propagule pressure (e.g., urban birds dispersing seeds at forest edges where they establish in pig soil disturbances). Singapore's extensive native forest restoration efforts may have provided plentiful edge and secondary forests that are well suited to pigs and M. crenata, which in turn undermine the aims of fostering later-successional native plant communities. To prevent negative externalities, we suggest that plant restoration and rewilding projects consider the potential role of wildlife in facilitating non-native plants, and couple these actions with preliminary screening of unintended consequences and continued monitoring, as well as limiting human-mediated weed invasion to minimize propagule sources.     

Fire-driven alien invasion in a fire-adapted ecosystem

Disturbance plays a key role in many alien plant invasions. However, often the main driver of invasion is not disturbance per se but alterations in the disturbance regime. In some fire-adapted shrublands, the community is highly resilient to infrequent, high-intensity fires, but changes in the fire regime that result in shorter fire intervals may make these communities more susceptible to alien plant invasions. This study examines several wildfire events that resulted in short fire intervals in California chaparral shrublands. In one study, we compared postfire recovery patterns in sites with different prefire stand ages (3 and 24 years), and in another study we compared sites that had burned once in four years with sites that had burned twice in this period. The population size of the dominant native shrub Adenostoma fasciculatum was drastically reduced following fire in the 3-year sites relative to the 24-year sites. The 3-year sites had much greater alien plant cover and significantly lower plant diversity than the 24-year sites. In a separate study, repeat fires four years apart on the same sites showed that annual species increased significantly after the second fire, and alien annuals far outnumbered native annuals. Aliens included both annual grasses and annual forbs and were negatively correlated with woody plant cover. Native woody species regenerated well after the first fire but declined after the second fire, and one obligate seeding shrub was extirpated from two sites by the repeat fires. It is concluded that some fire-adapted shrublands are vulnerable to changes in fire regime, and this can lead to a loss of native diversity and put the community on a trajectory towards type conversion from a woody to an herbaceous system. Such changes result in alterations in the proportion of natives to non-natives, changes in functional types from deeply rooted shrubs to shallow rooted grasses and forbs, increased fire frequency due to the increase in fine fuels, and changes in carbon storage.     

Influence of different landscape design styles on plant invasions in Central Europe

When considering the most frequent invasive exotic plants on an international scale, it is evident that the majority are ornamentals and that they were deliberately introduced in relation to landscape design. Although there are worldwide numerous lists of invasive exotic plants—which means plants that have harmful effects on native biodiversity—an assessment of the contribution of different landscape design styles on plant invasions has not been done. We used the extensive database on the history of introduction and naturalization of alien plants into natural habitats of Central Europe (Lohmeyer and Sukopp, Agriophyten in der Vegetation Mitteleuropas in: Schriftenreihe Vegetationskunde 25, 1992; Nachtrag: Braunschweiger Geobotan Arbeiten 8:179–220, 2001) to examine how many alien ornamental plants there are in the different natural habitats; and how many of them are invasive exotic plants and—in contrast—how many have not spread significantly. Also, we researched contributions by different landscape design styles to these plant invasions since medieval times. Of the estimated 12,000 alien plant species introduced into Central Europe since the Neolithic period, 279 taxa (2.3 %) are currently identified as being naturalized in natural habitats; 103 (0.86 %) of these naturalized taxa are ornamentals, and of these, 40 (0.33 %) are invasive exotic plants. Our investigation has shown a correlation between the frequency of plant invasions and changes in landscape-design styles. Evaluating the impact of plant invasions through horticulture and landscape design on native biodiversity, our study illustrates that it is significantly lower in Central Europe than in other parts of the world.     

Snowpack,fire, and forest disturbance: interactions affect montane invasions by non‐native shrubs

Montane regions worldwide have experienced relatively low plant invasion rates, a trend attributed to increased climatic severity, low rates of disturbance, and reduced propagule pressure relative to lowlands. Manipulative experiments at elevations above the invasive range of non‐native species can clarify the relative contributions of these mechanisms to montane invasion resistance, yet such experiments are rare. Furthermore, global climate change and land use changes are expected to cause decreases in snowpack and increases in disturbance by fire and forest thinning in montane forests. We examined the importance of these factors in limiting montane invasions using a field transplant experiment above the invasive range of two non‐native lowland shrubs, Scotch broom (Cytisus scoparius) and Spanish broom (Spartium junceum), in the rain–snow transition zone of the Sierra Nevada of California. We tested the effects of canopy closure, prescribed fire, and winter snow depth on demographic transitions of each species. Establishment of both species was most likely at intermediate levels of canopy disturbance, but at this intermediate canopy level, snow depth had negative effects on winter survival of seedlings. We used matrix population models to show that an 86% reduction in winter snowfall would cause a 2.8‐fold increase in population growth rates in Scotch broom and a 3.5‐fold increase in Spanish broom. Fall prescribed fire increased germination rates, but decreased overall population growth rates by reducing plant survival. However, at longer fire return intervals, population recovery between fires is likely to keep growth rates high, especially under low snowpack conditions. Many treatment combinations had positive growth rates despite being above the current invasive range, indicating that propagule pressure, disturbance, and climate can all strongly affect plant invasions in montane regions. We conclude that projected reductions in winter snowpack and increases in forest disturbance are likely to increase the risk of invasion from lower elevations.     

天然林和人工林外来入侵和本地植物对比研究: 以弄岗国家级自然保护区为例

外来植物的入侵严重威胁了自然保护区的生物多样性。为探讨自然保护区内天然林和人工林林下外来植物入侵状况及其与本地优势植物的种间关系, 本研究以弄岗国家级自然保护区为研究区域, 结合保护区内4种生境72个样方的野外调查数据, 利用生态位宽度、生态位重叠和种间联结指数比较了不同生境中外来入侵草本植物的多样性和生态位宽度以及外来入侵草本植物与本土优势草本植物的生态位重叠和种间联结。结果表明: 弄岗国家级自然保护区4种生境共记录6种外来入侵草本植物, 隶属于3科6属, 其中菊科物种数量最多。外来入侵植物多样性呈现出秋枫(Bischofia javanica)人工林 > 麻竹(Dendrocalamus latiflorus)次生林 > 人面子(Dracontomelon duperreanum)人工林 > 广西澄广花(Orophea polycarpa)次生林的特征。除广西澄广花次生林生境的外来入侵草本植物丰富度与本土草本植物丰富度呈显著正相关外, 其余生境均无显著的相关关系。三叶鬼针草(Bidens pilosa)的生态位宽度最大, 为4种生境均有分布的外来入侵植物。4种生境的外来入侵植物与本土优势植物生态位重叠和种间联结程度均较低, 种间竞争较弱。本研究明确了弄岗国家级自然保护区天然林和人工林中外来入侵草本植物的分布及其与本土草本植物的种间关系。     

新建川藏铁路(雅安-昌都段)沿线外来入侵植物种类及分布特征

横断山区为全球生物多样性热点地区之一, 也是全国生态屏障的重要组成部分。新建川藏铁路雅安至昌都段横跨横断山核心地区, 铁路建设形成的交通网络将沿线生物多样性热点区域与外界相连, 导致生物入侵风险陡增。为获得区域内外来入侵植物的种类及分布特征信息, 为即将开始的铁路工程建设、生态保护及生态修复等工作提供参考, 我们在雅安-昌都段内选择43个位点各进行长度1 km、宽度20 m的样线调查。研究结果显示: 雅安-昌都段共发现外来入侵植物58种, 隶属于18科42属, 其中出现频度最高的种类依次是牛膝菊(Galinsoga parviflora)、秋英(Cosmos bipinnatus)和鬼针草(Bidens pilosa)。从危害等级来看, 其中10种为恶性入侵种, 16种为严重入侵种, 8种为局部入侵种, 15种为一般入侵种, 9种为有待观察种, 超过半数种类具有明显入侵性。原产地分析结果显示美洲是该区域外来入侵植物的主要原产地。基于海拔及主要河流区段的比较研究发现: 入侵植物的种类数量呈现出明显的由东向西、由低海拔向高海拔逐渐递减的趋势, 该分布格局是环境因子和人类活动共同作用的结果。结合铁路沿线入侵现状和生境特征, 本文分析了铁路建设可能造成的外来植物入侵风险, 并针对入侵的防范提出了相应的建议。     

The interaction between propagule pressure,habitat suitability and density‐dependent reproduction in species invasion

Seedling recruitment limitations create a demographic bottleneck that largely determines the viability and structure of plant populations and communities, and pose a core restriction on the colonization of novel habitat. We use a shade‐tolerant, invasive grass, Microstegium vimineum, to examine the interplay between seed and establishment limitations – phenomena that together determine recruitment success but usually are investigated individually. We add increasing amounts of seed to microhabitats containing variable levels of leaf litter thickness – with reduced leaf litter simulating disturbance – to investigate whether reduced seed limitation overcomes the establishment limitation posed by litter cover. We do this across gradients in understory light, moisture and temperature, and quantify germination, survival, and then per capita adult biomass and reproduction in order to understand the implications for invasion across the landscape. We find that the combined effects of seed and establishment limitation influence recruitment; however, propagule pressure overwhelms the inhibitory effects of leaf litter thickness. Leaf litter reduces germination by 22–57% and seedling survival by 13–15% from that observed on bare soil. However, density‐dependent reproduction compensates as 1–3 plants can produce far more seeds (approx. 525) than are required for persistence. As such, just a few plants may establish in understory forest habitat and subsequently overwhelm establishment barriers with copious propagule production. These results, for a widespread, invasive plant, are consistent with the emerging perspective for native plants that seed and establishment limitation jointly influence recruitment. The ability for an exotic plant species to compensate for low population densities with high per capita seed production, that then overrides establishment limitations, makes its invasive potential daunting. Further work is required to test if this is a common mechanism underlying plant invasions.     

Propagule pressure and an invasion syndrome determine invasion success in a plant community model

The success of species invasions depends on multiple factors, including propagule pressure, disturbance, productivity, and the traits of native and non‐native species. While the importance of many of these determinants has already been investigated in relative isolation, they are rarely studied in combination. Here, we address this shortcoming by exploring the effect of the above‐listed factors on the success of invasions using an individual‐based mechanistic model. This approach enables us to explicitly control environmental factors (temperature as surrogate for productivity, disturbance, and propagule pressure) as well as to monitor whole‐community trait distributions of environmental adaptation, mass, and dispersal abilities. We simulated introductions of plant individuals to an oceanic island to assess which factors and species traits contribute to invasion success. We found that the most influential factors were higher propagule pressure and a particular set of traits. This invasion trait syndrome was characterized by a relative similarity in functional traits of invasive to native species, while invasive species had on average higher environmental adaptation, higher body mass, and increased dispersal distances, that is, had greater competitive and dispersive abilities. Our results highlight the importance in management practice of reducing the import of alien species, especially those that display this trait syndrome and come from similar habitats as those being managed.     

Plant invasions along mountain roads: the altitudinal amplitude of alien Asteraceae forbs in their native and introduced ranges

Studying plant invasions along environmental gradients is a promising approach to dissect the relative importance of multiple interacting factors that affect the spread of a species in a new range. Along altitudinal gradients, factors such as propagule pressure, climatic conditions and biotic interactions change simultaneously across rather small geographic scales. Here we investigate the distribution of eight Asteraceae forbs along mountain roads in both their native and introduced ranges in the Valais (southern Swiss Alps) and the Wallowa Mountains (northeastern Oregon, USA). We hypothesised that a lack of adaptation and more limiting propagule pressure at higher altitudes in the new range restricts the altitudinal distribution of aliens relative to the native range. However, all but one of the species reached the same or even a higher altitude in the new range. Thus neither the need to adapt to changing climatic conditions nor lower propagule pressure at higher altitudes appears to have prevented the altitudinal spread of introduced populations. We found clear differences between regions in the relative occurrence of alien species in ruderal sites compared to roadsides, and in the degree of invasion away from the roadside, presumably reflecting differences in disturbance patterns between regions. Whilst the upper altitudinal limits of these plant invasions are apparently climatically constrained, factors such as anthropogenic disturbance and competition with native vegetation appear to have greater influence than changing climatic conditions on the distribution of these alien species along altitudinal gradients.     

Attacking invasive grasses

In grasslands fire may play a role in the plant invasion process, both by creating disturbances that potentially favour non‐native invasions and as a possible tool for controlling alien invasions. Havill et al. (Applied Vegetation Science, 18, 2015, this issue) determine how native and non‐native species respond to different fire regimes as a first step in understanding the potential control of invasive grasses.     

Climate change and biological invasions: evidence,expectations, and response options

A changing climate may directly or indirectly influence biological invasions by altering the likelihood of introduction or establishment, as well as modifying the geographic range, environmental impacts, economic costs or management of alien species. A comprehensive assessment of empirical and theoretical evidence identified how each of these processes is likely to be shaped by climate change for alien plants, animals and pathogens in terrestrial, freshwater and marine environments of Great Britain. The strongest contemporary evidence for the potential role of climate change in the establishment of new alien species is for terrestrial arthropods, as a result of their ectothermic physiology, often high dispersal rate and their strong association with trade as well as commensal relationships with human environments. By contrast, there is little empirical support for higher temperatures increasing the rate of alien plant establishment due to the stronger effects of residence time and propagule pressure. The magnitude of any direct climate effect on the number of new alien species will be small relative to human‐assisted introductions driven by socioeconomic factors. Casual alien species (sleepers) whose population persistence is limited by climate are expected to exhibit greater rates of establishment under climate change assuming that propagule pressure remains at least at current levels. Surveillance and management targeting sleeper pests and diseases may be the most cost‐effective option to reduce future impacts under climate change. Most established alien species will increase their distribution range in Great Britain over the next century. However, such range increases are very likely be the result of natural expansion of populations that have yet to reach equilibrium with their environment, rather than a direct consequence of climate change. To assess the potential realised range of alien species will require a spatially explicit approach that not only integrates bioclimatic suitability and population‐level demographic rates but also simulation of landscape‐level processes (e.g. dispersal, land‐use change, host/habitat distribution, non‐climatic edaphic constraints). In terms of invasive alien species that have known economic or biodiversity impacts, the taxa that are likely to be the most responsive are plant pathogens and insect pests of agricultural crops. However, the extent to which climate adaptation strategies lead to new crops, altered rotations, and different farming practices (e.g. irrigation, fertilization) will all shape the potential agricultural impacts of alien species. The greatest uncertainty in the effects of climate change on biological invasions exists with identifying the future character of new species introductions and predicting ecosystem impacts. Two complementary strategies may work under these conditions of high uncertainty: (i) prioritise ecosystems in terms of their perceived vulnerability to climate change and prevent ingress or expansion of alien species therein that may exacerbate problems; (ii) target those ecosystem already threatened by alien species and implement management to prevent the situation deteriorating under climate change.