Molecular data and species distribution models reveal the Pleistocene history of the mayfly Ameletus inopinatus (Ephemeroptera: Siphlonuridae)1

1. We investigated the Pleistocene and Holocene history of the rare mayfly Ameletus inopinatus EATON 1887 (Ephemeroptera: Siphlonuridae) in Europe. We used A. inopinatus as a model species to explore the phylogeography of montane, cold‐tolerant aquatic insects with arctic–alpine distributions. 2. Using species distribution models, we developed hypotheses about the species demographic history in Central Europe and the recolonisation history of Fennoscandia. We tested these hypotheses using mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I (mtCOI) sequence data and compared our genetic results with previously generated microsatellite data to explore genetic diversity distributions of A. inopinatus. 3. We observed old lineages, deep splits and almost complete lineage sorting of mtCOI sequences among mountain ranges. These results support a periglacial survival, i.e. persistence at the periphery of Pleistocene glaciers in Central Europe. 4. There was strong differentiation between the Fennoscandian and all other populations, indicating that Fennoscandia was recolonised from a refugium not accounted for in our sampling. High degrees of population genetic structure within the northern samples suggest that Fennoscandia was recolonised by more than one lineage. However, this structure was not apparent in previously published microsatellite data, consistent with secondary contact without sexual incompatibility or with sex‐biased dispersal. 5. Our demographic analyses indicate that (i) the separation of northern and Central European lineages occurred during the early Pleistocene; (ii) Central European populations have persisted independently throughout the Pleistocene and (iii) the species extended its range about 150 000 years ago.     

Assessing biome boundary shifts under climate change scenarios in India

Climate change and its cascading impacts are being increasingly recognized as a major challenge across the globe. Climate is one of the most critical factors affecting biomes and their distribution. The present study assessed shifts in biome types of India using the conceptual framework of Holdridge life zone (HLZ) model, minimum distance classifier and climatic datasets to assess the distribution pattern of potential biomes under climate change scenarios in India. Modelling was conducted on the entire region of India using various combinations; (i) current climate scenario, and, (ii) increased temperature and precipitation scenario. The geographical analysis identifies nineteen (19) HLZs in the Indian sub-continent; seven (7) biomes and nineteen (19) sub-biomes. The overall accuracy and kappa coefficient of the biome map prepared for current climate scenario was 82.73% and 0.75, respectively. With the changes in increasing temperature and precipitation scenario, the modelling results predict significant decrease in the area cover for tropical deserts (plains), tropical desert scrubs (lower montane), tropical moist forests (lower montane) and tropical wet forests (lower montane). Along with these changes, there have been substantial increases in the area cover for tropical dry forests (plains) and tropical very dry forests (plains), especially in central and southern India. The results show shifts from very dry tundra (alvar) to dry tundra (alpine) and moist tundra (alpine) and in some places tropical moist forests (sub-alpine) as well. In central India, decrease in tropical moist forests (lower montane) has been observed, while an increase in the area cover of tropical rain forests (plains) in northeastern India has been observed. It is important to understand the impacts and vulnerabilities of projected climate change on forest ecosystems so that better management and conservation strategies can be adopted for biodiversity and forest dependent communities. The knowledge of impact mechanisms will identify adaptation strategies for some conditions which will help in decreasing the susceptibility to anticipated climate change in the forest sector.     

Modelling shifts in agroclimate and crop cultivar response under climate change

This paper aims: (i) to identify at national scale areas where crop yield formation is currently most prone to climate‐induced stresses, (ii) to evaluate how the severity of these stresses is likely to develop in time and space, and (iii) to appraise and quantify the performance of two strategies for adapting crop cultivation to a wide range of (uncertain) climate change projections. To this end we made use of extensive climate, crop, and soil data, and of two modelling tools: N‐AgriCLIM and the WOFOST crop simulation model. N‐AgriCLIM was developed for the automatic generation of indicators describing basic agroclimatic conditions and was applied over the whole of Finland. WOFOST was used to simulate detailed crop responses at four representative locations. N‐AgriCLIM calculations have been performed nationally for 3829 grid boxes at a 10 × 10 km resolution and for 32 climate scenarios. Ranges of projected shifts in indicator values for heat, drought and other crop‐relevant stresses across the scenarios vary widely – so do the spatial patterns of change. Overall, under reference climate the most risk‐prone areas for spring cereals are found in south‐west Finland, shifting to south‐east Finland towards the end of this century. Conditions for grass are likely to improve. WOFOST simulation results suggest that CO₂ fertilization and adjusted sowing combined can lead to small yield increases of current barley cultivars under most climate scenarios on favourable soils, but not under extreme climate scenarios and poor soils. This information can be valuable for appraising alternative adaptation strategies. It facilitates the identification of regions in which climatic changes might be rapid or otherwise notable for crop production, requiring a more detailed evaluation of adaptation measures. The results also suggest that utilizing the diversity of cultivar responses seems beneficial given the high uncertainty in climate change projections.     

Nowhere to go: Potential distribution shifts of a widespread lizard under two climate change scenarios

Species range shifts under climate change scenarios are caused by many factors. An integrative approach combining demographic distribution models (DDMs) and correlative models can provide key information for making accurate predictions, especially for widespread species occupying diverse environments. Sceloporus grammicus is a lizard that occurs widely in North America and shows variation in its life history traits among environments. Here we assessed future changes in the distribution of S. grammicus in Mexico using mechanistic, correlative, and hybrid models, under two (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) contrasting climate change scenarios, based on two General Circulation Models (GCM: ACCESS 1.0 and MIROC5). We measured the snout-vent length (SVL) of individuals of S. grammicus from 11 populations from central Mexico and input this trait as an indicator of vital rates into integral projection models (IPMs). We used the IPMs to calculate the growth rate (λ) of each population; we then modeled λ as a function of temperature to project λ across a temperature raster layer of Mexico. The correlative models were built using occurrence records of S. grammicus and the key environmental variables. For each scenario and GCM, we first built a map that displayed λ values (> 0.9) across the country; we then built a map that showed habitat suitability probability. We then overlaid the results of these two maps to build a map displaying presence/absence. In general, the results revealed that sites with high habitat suitability probability and λ > 0.9 will decrease under both climate change scenarios, with the decrease being more severe in the RCP 8.5 scenario compared to the RCP 4.5 scenario. Outputs were similar for all projections. Our results predict a range contraction to higher and cooler places such as mountainous zones and were more restrictive under the hybrid approach. The use of this hybrid approach can overcome the weaknesses of correlative models and DDMs. This is the first study to project a range contraction for this species, and the results are consistent with previous observations of other species exhibiting distributional shifts towards the poles or upwards in elevation as the climate warms. However, S. grammicus may overcome the negative effects of climate change via its plasticity in habitat use, thermal preferences, and life history traits.     

Investigating uncertainties in zooplankton composition shifts under climate change scenarios in the Mediterranean Sea

Ensemble niche modelling has become a common framework to predict changes in assemblages composition under climate change scenarios. The amount of uncertainty generated by the different components of this framework has rarely been assessed. In the marine realm forecasts have usually focused on taxa representing the top of the marine food‐web, thus overlooking their basal component: the plankton. Calibrating environmental niche models at the global scale, we modelled the habitat suitability of 106 copepod species and estimated the dissimilarity between present and future zooplanktonic assemblages in the surface Mediterranean Sea. We identified the patterns (species replacement versus nestedness) driving the predicted dissimilarity, and quantified the relative contributions of different uncertainty sources: environmental niche models, greenhouse gas emission scenarios, circulation model configurations and species prevalence. Our results confirm that the choice of the niche modelling method is the greatest source of uncertainty in habitat suitability projections. Presence‐only and presence–absence methods provided different visions of the niches, which subsequently lead to different future scenarios of biodiversity changes. Nestedness with decline in species richness is the pattern driving dissimilarity between present and future copepod assemblages. Our projections contrast with those reported for higher trophic levels, suggesting that different components of the pelagic food‐web may respond discordantly to future climatic changes.     

The influence of climate change scenarios on populations of the mayfly Cloeon dipterum

Populations of the mayfly Cloeon dipterum from 48 ponds (3000 l fibre-glass tanks of 1 m depth) were monitored over the course of 1 year. To simulate possible patterns of climatic change, the ponds were subject to three temperature treatments: continuous heating to 3 °C above ambient; heating to 3 °C above ambient during the summer only; and no heating. Further experimental complexity included enhanced nutrient input into the ponds and the presence or absence of fish, giving a factorial combination of 3 temperature regimes × 2 nutrient levels × presence/absence of fish predation.Few nymphs were found in the presence of fish. Where fish were absent, the temperature treatments did not significantly affect nymph abundances, and only marginally influenced mean nymph body-lengths. In contrast, the nutrient treatment had significant effects on both nymph abundance and size, with greater numbers of generally larger nymphs occurring in those fish-free ponds receiving additional nutrients. Adult emergence began earlier in the year from the heated ponds, particularly those ponds receiving additional nutrients. Adult body-length differed between temperature treatments, but consistent patterns were difficult to ascertain because of interactions with nutrient treatment and seasonal effects.Our results show that during the short term at least, elevated temperature as a simulation of climate change does not have an overwhelming influence on either mayfly abundance or size. The influence of temperature is subtle and subject to complex interaction with other habitat variables. We therefore suggest that the direct consequences of small changes in temperature will likely be of little significance to C. dipterum, relative to indirect effects operating through interactions with predation and nutrient input.     

Distributional range shifts of Western Atlantic benthic Sargassum species (Fucales,Phaeophyceae) under future climate change scenarios

Climate change is altering the world’s marine biota, in particular, their geographic distribution. Sargassum species are foundation species that play critical ecological roles in tropical benthic communities, providing food, habitat heterogeneity and shelter for a wide range of marine organisms. To understand how future changes in abiotic variables could affect the distribution of Sargassum species along the Western Atlantic Ocean, we performed Ecological Niche Models (ENM) for 12 benthic Sargassum species. We projected present and future habitat suitability distributions under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 IPCC scenarios. We fit ENM and created ensembles from different algorithms. Our results predict changes in species latitudinal range (niche suitability) in the order of 0.5˚ to 8.1˚ northward, and 0˚ to 5.5˚ southward. Six species are likely to reduce their suitability area from 10% to 80%, while other six species are likely to expand their suitability area from 4% to 168%. Overall, changes in suitability area and latitudinal ranges will increase at larger latitudes for most species while suitability areas will decrease at lower latitudes for half of the species. This pattern is consistent with the expected tropicalization of temperate latitudes following global warming. Such changes can produce considerable losses in ecosystem services maintained by healthy Sargassum beds, particularly at lower latitudes. Our findings highlight the need to improve Sargassum conservation policies and management strategies to avoid the negative effects caused by losses in Sargassum forests.     

Isolation and characterization of 10 highly polymorphic di- and trinucleotide microsatellite markers in the mayfly Ameletus inopinatus (Ephemeroptera: Siphlonuridae)

We describe the isolation of ten polymorphic microsatellite loci from the mayfly Ameletus inopinatus. Loci had di‐ or trinucleotide repeat motifs and were highly variable with three to 17 alleles (mean = 7.15). Observed heterozygosity ranged from 0.143 to 0.905. One locus (Ami_202) showed significant deviation from Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium in one population, but no evidence for null alleles. One locus (Ami_73) was significantly linked with three other loci. The remaining nine loci should prove highly informative for population genetic studies.     

Local genetic structure of a montane herb among isolated grassland patches: implications for the preservation of genetic diversity under climate change

Habitat loss, fragmentation of meadow patches, and global climate change (GCC) threaten plant communities of montane grasslands. We analyzed the genetic structure of the montane herb Geranium sylvaticum L. on a local scale in order to understand the effects of habitat fragmentation and potential GCC impacts on genetic diversity and differentiation. Amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) fingerprinting and cpDNA sequencing was performed for 295 individuals of 15 G. sylvaticum populations spanning the entire distribution range of the species in the Taunus mountain range in Germany. We found patterns of substantial genetic differentiation among populations using 150 polymorphic AFLP markers (mean F _ST = 0.105), but no variation in 896 bp of plastid DNA sequences. While populations in the center of their local distribution range were genetically diverse and less differentiated, higher F _ST values and reduced genetic variability was revealed for the populations at the low-altitudinal distribution margins. Projections of GCC effects on the distribution of G. sylvaticum in 2050 showed that GCC will likely lead to the extinction of most edge populations. To maintain regional genetic diversity, conservation efforts should focus on the diverse high-altitude populations, although a potential loss of unique variations in genetically differentiated peripheral populations could lower the overall genetic diversity and potentially the long-term viability in the study region. This study documents the usefulness of fine-scale assessments of genetic population structure in combination with niche modeling to reveal priority regions for the effective long-term conservation of populations and their genetic variation under climate change.     

Predicting range shifts of Davidia involucrata Ball. under future climate change

Understanding and predicting how species will respond to climate change is crucial for biodiversity conservation. Here, we assessed future climate change impacts on the distribution of a rare and endangered plant species, Davidia involucrate in China, using the most recent global circulation models developed in the sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC6). We assessed the potential range shifts in this species by using an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs). The ensemble SDMs exhibited high predictive ability and suggested that the temperature annual range, annual mean temperature, and precipitation of the driest month are the most influential predictors in shaping distribution patterns of this species. The projections of the ensemble SDMs also suggested that D. involucrate is very vulnerable to future climate change, with at least one‐third of its suitable range expected to be lost in all future climate change scenarios and will shift to the northward of high‐latitude regions. Similarly, at least one‐fifth of the overlap area of the current nature reserve networks and projected suitable habitat is also expected to be lost. These findings suggest that it is of great importance to ensure that adaptive conservation management strategies are in place to mitigate the impacts of climate change on D. involucrate.     

Beyond species distribution modeling: A landscape genetics approach to investigating range shifts under future climate change

Understanding how biodiversity will respond to future climate change is a major conservation and societal challenge. Climate change is predicted to force many species to shift their ranges in pursuit of suitable conditions. This study aims to use landscape genetics, the study of the effects of environmental heterogeneity on the spatial distribution of genetic variation, as a predictive tool to assess how species will shift their ranges to track climatic changes and inform conservation measures that will facilitate movement. The approach is based on three steps: 1) using species distribution models (SDMs) to predict suitable ranges under future climate change, 2) using the landscape genetics framework to identify landscape variables that impede or facilitate movement, and 3) extrapolating the effect of landscape connectivity on range shifts in response to future climate change. I show how this approach can be implemented using the publicly available genetic dataset of the grey long-eared bat, Plecotus austriacus, in the Iberian Peninsula. Forest cover gradient was the main landscape variable affecting genetic connectivity between colonies. Forest availability is likely to limit future range shifts in response to climate change, primarily over the central plateau, but important range shift pathways have been identified along the eastern and western coasts. I provide outputs that can be directly used by conservation managers and review the viability of the approach. Using landscape genetics as a predictive tool in combination with SDMs enables the identification of potential pathways, whose loss can affect the ability of species to shift their range into future climatically suitable areas, and the appropriate conservation management measures to increase landscape connectivity and facilitate movement.     

Modelling the spatial distribution of selected North American woodland mammals under future climate scenarios

1. North America has a diverse array of mammalian species. Model projections indicate significant variations in future climate conditions of North America, and the habitats of woodland mammals of this continent may be particularly sensitive to changes in climate.
2. We report on the potential spatial distributions of 13 wide-ranging, relatively common species of North American woodland mammals under future climate scenarios.
3. We examined the potential influence of the mean and seasonal climate variables on the distribution of species. Presence-only occurrence records of species, four predictor variables, two future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5), and two time steps (current and 2070) were used to build species’ distribution models using a maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt).
4. Our results suggested that overall, 11 of the 13 species are likely to gain climatically suitable space (regions where climate conditions will be similar to those of area currently occupied) at the continental scale, but American marten Martes americana and ‘woodland’ caribou Rangifer tarandus are likely to lose suitable climate range by 2070. Furthermore, climate space is likely to be expanding northwards under future climate scenarios for most of the mammals, and many jurisdictions in the border region between Canada and the USA are likely to lose iconic species, such as moose Alces alces. We identified regions as potential in situ and ex situ climate change refugia, which are increasingly considered to be important for biodiversity conservation.
5. The model results suggest significant implications for conservation planning for the 13 mammalian species under global climate change, especially at fine spatial scales. Numerous species that are presently common at their southern range edge will be functionally or completely extirpated in 50 years. The potential in situ and ex situ climate change refugia could provide an effective support for adaptive strategies aimed at species conservation planning.

     

气候变化情景下大沙鼠潜在地理分布

大沙鼠（Rhombomys opimus）是中亚地区典型的荒漠啮齿动物,其采食和掘洞行为造成了荒漠林和荒漠草原退化加剧,生态环境恶化。基于大沙鼠分布数据、气候、土壤和地形因子数据,采用MaxEnt模型预测大沙鼠在当前气候和温室气体低、中、高3种浓度排放情景下2050年和2070年的潜在适生区,分析亚洲大陆未来气候条件下大沙鼠适生面积和分布格局的变化趋势,探讨影响大沙鼠分布的主要环境因子。结果表明：模型AUC（Area Under Curve）值达到0.9以上,预测的准确性达到"极好"。经刀切法分析（Jackknife）表明,影响大沙鼠在适生区分布最主要的环境变量为温度季节性变化的标准差、土壤基本饱和度、最干季度降水量、最暖季度降水量和土壤可交换钠盐。Rcp2.6、Rcp4.5和Rcp8.5三种气候场景下2050年高适生区面积较当前分别增长15.78%、15.10%和13.44%;Rcp2.6、Rcp4.5和Rcp8.5三种气候场景下2070年高适生区面积较当前增长8.32%、13.18%和18.18%。中国大沙鼠适生区范围内,新疆所分布的大沙鼠适生区分布范围变化较大,3种情景模式下大沙鼠的适生区位置向新疆北部扩张;甘肃适生区位置向西北部扩张;内蒙西北部和阿拉善地区大沙鼠的适生区位置向四周扩张。研究揭示了未来气候下大沙鼠高适生区范围和空间变化,并得到影响其分布的主要环境变量,对其防控具有重要意义。     

Consequences of the genetic threshold model for observing partial migration under climate change scenarios

Migration is a widespread phenomenon across the animal kingdom as a response to seasonality in environmental conditions. Partially migratory populations are populations that consist of both migratory and residential individuals. Such populations are very common, yet their stability has long been debated. The inheritance of migratory activity is currently best described by the threshold model of quantitative genetics. The inclusion of such a genetic threshold model for migratory behavior leads to a stable zone in time and space of partially migratory populations under a wide range of demographic parameter values, when assuming stable environmental conditions and unlimited genetic diversity. Migratory species are expected to be particularly sensitive to global warming, as arrival at the breeding grounds might be increasingly mistimed as a result of the uncoupling of long‐used cues and actual environmental conditions, with decreasing reproduction as a consequence. Here, we investigate the consequences for migratory behavior and the stability of partially migratory populations under five climate change scenarios and the assumption of a genetic threshold value for migratory behavior in an individual‐based model. The results show a spatially and temporally stable zone of partially migratory populations after different lengths of time in all scenarios. In the scenarios in which the species expands its range from a particular set of starting populations, the genetic diversity and location at initialization determine the species’ colonization speed across the zone of partial migration and therefore across the entire landscape. Abruptly changing environmental conditions after model initialization never caused a qualitative change in phenotype distributions, or complete extinction. This suggests that climate change‐induced shifts in species’ ranges as well as changes in survival probabilities and reproductive success can be met with flexibility in migratory behavior at the species level, which will reduce the risk of extinction.     

Modelling species' range shifts in a changing climate: the impacts of biotic interactions, dispersal distance and the rate of climate change

There is an urgent need for accurate prediction of climate change impacts on species ranges. Current reliance on bioclimatic envelope approaches ignores important biological processes such as interactions and dispersal. Although much debated, it is unclear how such processes might influence range shifting. Using individual-based modelling we show that interspecific interactions and dispersal ability interact with the rate of climate change to determine range-shifting dynamics in a simulated community with two growth forms--mutualists and competitors. Interactions determine spatial arrangements of species prior to the onset of rapid climate change. These lead to space-occupancy effects that limit the rate of expansion of the fast-growing competitors but which can be overcome by increased long-distance dispersal. As the rate of climate change increases, lower levels of long-distance dispersal can drive the mutualists to extinction, demonstrating the potential for subtle process balances, non-linear dynamics and abrupt changes from species coexistence to species loss during climate change.     

Shifts in potential geographical distribution of Pterocarya stenoptera under climate change scenarios in China

Climate change poses a serious threat to biodiversity. Predicting the effects of climate change on the distribution of a species' habitat can help humans address the potential threats which may change the scope and distribution of species. Pterocarya stenoptera is a common fast‐growing tree species often used in the ecological restoration of riverbanks and alpine forests in central and eastern China. Until now, the characteristics of the distribution of this species' habitat are poorly known as are the environmental factors that influence its preferred habitat. In the present study, the Maximum Entropy Modeling (Maxent) algorithm and the Genetic Algorithm for Ruleset Production (GARP) were used to establish the models for the potential distribution of this species by selecting 236 sites with known occurrences and 14 environmental variables. The results indicate that both models have good predictive power. Minimum temperature of coldest month (Bio6), mean temperature of warmest quarter (Bio10), annual precipitation (Bio12), and precipitation of driest month (Bio14) were important environmental variables influencing the prediction of the Maxent model. According to the models, the temperate and subtropical regions of eastern China had high environmental suitability for this species, where the species had been recorded. Under each climate change scenario, climatic suitability of the existing range of this species increased, and its climatic niche expanded geographically to the north and higher elevation. GARP predicted a more conservative expansion. The projected spatial and temporal patterns of P. stenoptera can provide reference for the development of forest management and protection strategies.     

Predicting the potential global distribution of Ageratina adenophora under current and future climate change scenarios

AimInvasive alien species (IAS) threaten ecosystems and humans worldwide, and future climate change may accelerate the expansion of IAS. Predicting the suitable areas of IAS can prevent their further expansion. Ageratina adenophora is an invasive weed over 30 countries in tropical and subtropical regions. However, the potential suitable areas of A. adenophora remain unclear along with its response to climate change. This study explored and mapped the current and future potential suitable areas of Ageratina adenophora.LocationGlobal.TaxaAsteraceae A. adenophora (Spreng.) R.M.King & H.Rob. Commonly known as Crofton weed.MethodsBased on A. adenophora occurrence data and climate data, we predicted its suitable areas of this weed under current and future (four RCPs in 2050 and 2070) by MaxEnt model. We used ArcGIS 10.4 to explore the potential suitable area distribution characteristics of this weed and the “ecospat” package in R to analyze its altitudinal distribution changes.ResultsThe area under the curve (AUC) value (>0.9) and true skill statistics (TSS) value (>0.8) indicated excelled model performance. Among environment factors, mean temperature of coldest quarter contributed most to the model. Globally, the suitable areas for A. adenophora invasion decreased under climate change scenarios, although regional increases were observed, including in six biodiversity hotspot regions. The potential suitable areas of A. adenophora under climate change would expand in regions with higher elevation (3,000–3,500 m).Main conclusionsMean temperature of coldest quarter was the most important variable influencing the potential suitable area of A. Adenophora. Under the background of a warming climate, the potential suitable area of A. adenophora will shrink globally but increase in six biodiversity hotspot regions. The potential suitable area of A. adenophora would expand at higher elevation (3,000–3,500 m) under climate change. Mountain ecosystems are of special concern as they are rich in biodiversity and sensitive to climate change, and increasing human activities provide more opportunities for IAS invasion.