Asymmetry of the os pubis: Implications for the Suchey‐Brooks method

Studies of skeletal development frequently document populational incidences of bilateral asymmetry. Degenerative morphological skeletal changes, attributed to age related and irregular ossification, may also progress asymmetrically, either as the result of asymmetric biomechanical factors expressed over the lifespan, asymmetric expression of physiological processes, or progressive magnification of asymmetry acquired previously during development. This study illustrates the effects of bilateral asymmetry on age at death estimates obtained from human skeletal remains. The Suchey‐Brooks method, which uses the pubic symphyseal face for age estimation (Katz and Suchey, Am J Phys Anthropol 69 1986 427–435), was selected for the study based on its widespread use. Asymmetry in the Suchey‐Brooks symphyseal age phases was found in over 60% of a sample composed of 20th century White male individuals from 18 to 86 years of age (N = 130). However, results suggest that the presence of asymmetry does not compromise the accuracy of the Suchey‐Brooks method if the morphologically older symphyseal face of an asymmetric individual is used to estimate age at death. In addition, weak directional asymmetry and a correlation between age and asymmetry were found. This suggests that a comparison of asymmetry in this area with that in other skeletal areas, where the factors originating and influencing asymmetry are better understood, may be useful in better understanding the biological processes which underlie the age markers used in the Suchey‐Brooks method. Am J Phys Anthropol 2009. © 2009 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Modeling senescence changes of the pubic symphysis in historic Italian populations: A comparison of the Rostock and forensic approaches to aging using transition analysis

Age‐related anatomical changes to the surface of the pubic symphysis are well‐documented in the literature. However, aligning these morphological changes with chronological age has proven problematic, often resulting in biased age estimates. Statistical modeling provides an avenue for forensic anthropologists and bioarchaeologists to increase the accuracy of traditional aging methods. Locating appropriate samples to use as a basis for modeling age estimations can be challenging due to differing sample age distributions and potentially varying patterns of senescence. We compared two approaches, Rostock and Forensic, coupled with a Bayesian methodology, to address these issues. Transition analysis was run specific to each method (which differ by sample selection). A Gompertz model was derived from an informative prior that yielded the mortality and senescence parameters for constructing highest posterior density ranges, i.e., coverages, which are analogous to age ranges. These age ranges were generated from both approaches and are presented as reference tables useful for historic male and female Italian samples. The age ranges produced from each approach were tested on an historic Italian sample, using cumulative binomial tests. These two approaches performed similarly, with the Forensic approach showing a slight advantage. However, the Forensic approach is unable to identify varying senescence patterns between populations, thus preference for one approach over the other will depend on research design. Finally, we demonstrate that while populations exhibit similar morphological changes with advancing age, there are no significant sex differences in these samples, and the timing of these changes varies from population to population. Am J Phys Anthropol 156:466–473, 2015. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The influence of body size on adult skeletal age estimation methods

Accurate age estimations are essential to archaeological and forensic analyses. However, reliability for adult skeletal age estimations is poor, especially for individuals over the age of 40 years. This is the first study to show that body size influences skeletal age estimation. The ??can et al., Lovejoy et al., Buckberry and Chamberlain, and Suchey‐Brooks age methods were tested on 764 adult skeletons from the Hamann‐Todd and William Bass Collections. Statures ranged from 1.30 to 1.93 m and body masses ranged from 24.0 to 99.8 kg. Transition analysis was used to evaluate the differences in the age estimations. For all four methods, the smallest individuals have the lowest ages at transition and the largest individuals have the highest ages at transition. Short and light individuals are consistently underaged, while tall and heavy individuals are consistently overaged. When femoral length and femoral head diameter are compared with the log‐age model, results show the same trend as the known stature and body mass measurements. The skeletal remains of underweight individuals have fewer age markers while those of obese individuals have increased surface degeneration and osteophytic lipping. Tissue type and mechanical loading have been shown to affect bone turnover rates, and may explain the differing patterns of skeletal aging. From an archaeological perspective, the underaging of light, short individuals suggests the need to revisit the current research consensus on the young mortality rates of past populations. From a forensic perspective, understanding the influence of body size will impact efforts to identify victims of mass disasters, genocides, and homicides. Am J Phys Anthropol 156:35–57, 2015 © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Evaluation of the suchey–brooks method of age estimation in an Australian subpopulation using computed tomography of the pubic symphyseal surface

Despite the prominent use of the Suchey–Brooks (S–B) method of age estimation in forensic anthropological practice, it is subject to intrinsic limitations, with reports of differential interpopulation error rates between geographical locations. This study assessed the accuracy of the S–B method to a contemporary adult population in Queensland, Australia and provides robust age parameters calibrated for our population. Three‐dimensional surface reconstructions were generated from computed tomography scans of the pubic symphysis of male and female Caucasian individuals aged 15–70 years (n = 195) in Amira® and Rapidform®. Error was analyzed on the basis of bias, inaccuracy and percentage correct classification for left and right symphyseal surfaces. Application of transition analysis and Chi‐square statistics demonstrated 63.9 and 69.7% correct age classification associated with the left symphyseal surface of Australian males and females, respectively, using the S–B method. Using Bayesian statistics, probability density distributions for each S–B phase were calculated, providing refined age parameters for our population. Mean inaccuracies of 6.77 (±2.76) and 8.28 (±4.41) years were reported for the left surfaces of males and females, respectively; with positive biases for younger individuals (<55 years) and negative biases in older individuals. Significant sexual dimorphism in the application of the S–B method was observed; and asymmetry in phase classification of the pubic symphysis was a frequent phenomenon. These results recommend that the S–B method should be applied with caution in medico‐legal death investigations of Queensland skeletal remains and warrant further investigation of reliable age estimation techniques. Am J Phys Anthropol, 2013. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

A hierarchical Bayesian model for calibrating estimates of species divergence times

In Bayesian divergence time estimation methods, incorporating calibrating information from the fossil record is commonly done by assigning prior densities to ancestral nodes in the tree. Calibration prior densities are typically parametric distributions offset by minimum age estimates provided by the fossil record. Specification of the parameters of calibration densities requires the user to quantify his or her prior knowledge of the age of the ancestral node relative to the age of its calibrating fossil. The values of these parameters can, potentially, result in biased estimates of node ages if they lead to overly informative prior distributions. Accordingly, determining parameter values that lead to adequate prior densities is not straightforward. In this study, I present a hierarchical Bayesian model for calibrating divergence time analyses with multiple fossil age constraints. This approach applies a Dirichlet process prior as a hyperprior on the parameters of calibration prior densities. Specifically, this model assumes that the rate parameters of exponential prior distributions on calibrated nodes are distributed according to a Dirichlet process, whereby the rate parameters are clustered into distinct parameter categories. Both simulated and biological data are analyzed to evaluate the performance of the Dirichlet process hyperprior. Compared with fixed exponential prior densities, the hierarchical Bayesian approach results in more accurate and precise estimates of internal node ages. When this hyperprior is applied using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, the ages of calibrated nodes are sampled from mixtures of exponential distributions and uncertainty in the values of calibration density parameters is taken into account.     

Adult females and pubic bone growth

Previous research (Tague [1994] Am. J. Phys. Anthropol. 95:27–40) has shown an age effect in pubic bone length among adult women. Tague found that in three prehistoric Native American skeletal samples, women aged 18–24 had a significantly shorter linea terminalis than did women aged 25 and older. The purpose of this research is to determine whether such a difference can be discerned in other female skeletal samples. Three female skeletal samples were used in this analysis: 75 African-American and 42 European-American females aged 18–39 from the Hamann-Todd Collection (collected between 1893 and 1938; Iscan, 1990) and 99 African-American females aged 18–39 from the Terry Collection (collected between 1914 and 1965; Cobb, 1933; Iscan, 1990). Several chord measurements of pubic bone length along the linea terminalis were analyzed by one-tailed t-tests of the separate samples subdivided into two age groups: 18–24 and 25–39 years. Of 15 comparisons between age groups, none differed significantly by age group within each sample. It is concluded that the observed significant difference in pubic bone length in the Native American female skeletal samples cannot be replicated in other samples and that there is no age effect on pubic bone length in the samples tested in this analysis. Tague's findings reflect either the occurrence of late menarche in prehistoric populations or differential survivorship. Am J Phys Anthropol 106:323–328, 1998. © 1998 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Patterns of physiological decline due to age and selection in Drosophila melanogaster

In outbred sexually reproducing populations, age‐specific mortality rates reach a plateau in late life following the exponential increase in mortality rates that marks aging. Little is known about what happens to physiology when cohorts transition from aging to late life. We measured age‐specific values for starvation resistance, desiccation resistance, time‐in‐motion, and geotaxis in ten Drosophila melanogaster populations: five populations selected for rapid development and five control populations. Adulthood was divided into two stages, the aging phase and the late‐life phase according to demographic data. Consistent with previous studies, we found that populations selected for rapid development entered the late‐life phase at an earlier age than the controls. Age‐specific rates of change for all physiological phenotypes showed differences between the aging phase and the late‐life phase. This result suggests that late life is physiologically distinct from aging. The ages of transitions in physiological characteristics from aging to late life statistically match the age at which the demographic transition from aging to late life occurs, in all cases but one. These experimental results support evolutionary theories of late life that depend on patterns of decline and stabilization in the forces of natural selection.     

Transition analysis: a validation study with known-age modern American skeletons

Transition Analysis-a recent skeletal age-estimation procedure (Boldsen et al.: Paleodemography: age distributions from skeletal samples (2002) 73-106)-is evaluated using 252 known-age modern American males and females from the Bass Donated Collection and Mercyhurst forensic cases. The pubic symphysis worked best for estimating age, followed by the sacroiliac joint and cranial sutures. Estimates based on all skeletal characteristics are influenced by the choice of prior distribution, although its effect is dwarfed by both the inaccuracy and imprecision of age estimates. Age intervals are narrowest for young adults, but are surprisingly short in old age as well. When using an informative prior distribution, the greatest uncertainty occurs from the late 40s into the 70s. Transition Analysis estimates do not perform as well as experience-based assessments, indicating the existing procedure is too narrowly focused on commonly used pelvic and cranial structures.     

Paleodemographic age‐at‐death distributions of two Mexican skeletal collections: A comparison of transition analysis and traditional aging methods

Traditional methods of aging adult skeletons suffer from the problem of age mimicry of the reference collection, as described by Bocquet‐Appel and Masset (1982). Transition analysis (Boldsen et al., 2002) is a method of aging adult skeletons that addresses the problem of age mimicry of the reference collection by allowing users to select an appropriate prior probability. In order to evaluate whether transition analysis results in significantly different age estimates for adults, the method was applied to skeletal collections from Postclassic Cholula and Contact‐Period Xochimilco. The resulting age‐at‐death distributions were then compared with age‐at‐death distributions for the two populations constructed using traditional aging methods. Although the traditional aging methods result in age‐at‐death distributions with high young adult mortality and few individuals living past the age of 50, the age‐at‐death distributions constructed using transition analysis indicate that most individuals who lived into adulthood lived past the age of 50. Am J Phys Anthropol 152:67–78, 2013. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Modeling Age and Nest‐Specific Survival Using a Hierarchical Bayesian Approach

Summary : Recent studies have shown that grassland birds are declining more rapidly than any other group of terrestrial birds. Current methods of estimating avian age‐specific nest survival rates require knowing the ages of nests, assuming homogeneous nests in terms of nest survival rates, or treating the hazard function as a piecewise step function. In this article, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model with nest‐specific covariates to estimate age‐specific daily survival probabilities without the above requirements. The model provides a smooth estimate of the nest survival curve and identifies the factors that are related to the nest survival. The model can handle irregular visiting schedules and it has the least restrictive assumptions compared to existing methods. Without assuming proportional hazards, we use a multinomial semiparametric logit model to specify a direct relation between age‐specific nest failure probability and nest‐specific covariates. An intrinsic autoregressive prior is employed for the nest age effect. This nonparametric prior provides a more flexible alternative to the parametric assumptions. The Bayesian computation is efficient because the full conditional posterior distributions either have closed forms or are log concave. We use the method to analyze a Missouri dickcissel dataset and find that (1) nest survival is not homogeneous during the nesting period, and it reaches its lowest at the transition from incubation to nestling; and (2) nest survival is related to grass cover and vegetation height in the study area.     

Effect of obesity on the reliability of age-at-death indicators of the pelvis

During medicolegal investigations, forensic anthropologists commonly use morphological changes in the auricular surface of the ilium and the symphyseal face of the pubis to estimate age. However, obesity may impact the reliability of age estimations based on pelvic joints. Over the past several decades, the prevalence of obesity has dramatically increased in the United States (US). Since the rate of progression through age-related stages of weight-bearing joints may be influenced by excessive body mass, it is important that anthropologists understand how obesity affects age-related morphological changes in the skeleton. This study investigates the effects of obesity on the validity of the estimated age-at-death based on the Buckberry–Chamberlin and Suchey–Brooks methods by comparing US adults considered normal BMI (BMI 18.5–24.9) and obese (BMI ≥ 30). The obese group exhibits overall greater bias (overestimation of age) and inaccuracy, less precision, and lower correlations between estimated and known age than the normal BMI group using both methods, although differences in the pubic symphysis are not statistically significant. For the auricular surface the age of transition from one phase to the next is lower and the standard deviations are greater for the obese as compared to normal weight individuals. This study helps to elucidate how obesity affects the rate of age-related skeletal change of the human pelvis, and shows that the pubic symphysis may be a more reliable indicator of age in obese individuals and that greater standard deviations are needed for obese individuals when estimating age-at-death from the pelvis. Am J Phys Anthropol 156:595–605, 2015. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Estimation of adult skeletal age‐at‐death using the Sugeno fuzzy integral

Age‐at‐death estimation of an individual skeleton is important to forensic and biological anthropologists for identification and demographic analysis, but it has been shown that the current aging methods are often unreliable because of skeletal variation and taphonomic factors. Multifactorial methods have been shown to produce better results when determining age‐at‐death than single indicator methods. However, multifactorial methods are difficult to apply to single or poorly preserved skeletons, and they rarely provide the investigator with information about the reliability of the estimate. The goal of this research is to examine the validity of the Sugeno fuzzy integral as a multifactorial method for modeling age‐at‐death of an individual skeleton. This approach is novel because it produces an informed decision of age‐at‐death utilizing multiple age indicators while also taking into consideration the accuracies of the methods and the condition of the bone being examined. Additionally, the Sugeno fuzzy integral does not require the use of a population and it qualitatively produces easily interpreted graphical results. Examples are presented applying three commonly used aging methods on a known‐age skeletal sample from the Terry Anatomical Collection. This method produces results that are more accurate and with smaller intervals than single indicator methods. Am J Phys Anthropol 2010. © 2009 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

A Simple Method for Estimating Informative Node Age Priors for the Fossil Calibration of Molecular Divergence Time Analyses

Molecular divergence time analyses often rely on the age of fossil lineages to calibrate node age estimates. Most divergence time analyses are now performed in a Bayesian framework, where fossil calibrations are incorporated as parametric prior probabilities on node ages. It is widely accepted that an ideal parameterization of such node age prior probabilities should be based on a comprehensive analysis of the fossil record of the clade of interest, but there is currently no generally applicable approach for calculating such informative priors. We provide here a simple and easily implemented method that employs fossil data to estimate the likely amount of missing history prior to the oldest fossil occurrence of a clade, which can be used to fit an informative parametric prior probability distribution on a node age. Specifically, our method uses the extant diversity and the stratigraphic distribution of fossil lineages confidently assigned to a clade to fit a branching model of lineage diversification. Conditioning this on a simple model of fossil preservation, we estimate the likely amount of missing history prior to the oldest fossil occurrence of a clade. The likelihood surface of missing history can then be translated into a parametric prior probability distribution on the age of the clade of interest. We show that the method performs well with simulated fossil distribution data, but that the likelihood surface of missing history can at times be too complex for the distribution-fitting algorithm employed by our software tool. An empirical example of the application of our method is performed to estimate echinoid node ages. A simulation-based sensitivity analysis using the echinoid data set shows that node age prior distributions estimated under poor preservation rates are significantly less informative than those estimated under high preservation rates.     

Bayesian regularization for flexible baseline hazard functions in Cox survival models

Fully Bayesian methods for Cox models specify a model for the baseline hazard function. Parametric approaches generally provide monotone estimations. Semi‐parametric choices allow for more flexible patterns but they can suffer from overfitting and instability. Regularization methods through prior distributions with correlated structures usually give reasonable answers to these types of situations. We discuss Bayesian regularization for Cox survival models defined via flexible baseline hazards specified by a mixture of piecewise constant functions and by a cubic B‐spline function. For those “semi‐parametric” proposals, different prior scenarios ranging from prior independence to particular correlated structures are discussed in a real study with microvirulence data and in an extensive simulation scenario that includes different data sample and time axis partition sizes in order to capture risk variations. The posterior distribution of the parameters was approximated using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Model selection was performed in accordance with the deviance information criteria and the log pseudo‐marginal likelihood. The results obtained reveal that, in general, Cox models present great robustness in covariate effects and survival estimates independent of the baseline hazard specification. In relation to the “semi‐parametric” baseline hazard specification, the B‐splines hazard function is less dependent on the regularization process than the piecewise specification because it demands a smaller time axis partition to estimate a similar behavior of the risk.     

Mixture Hazard Models for Lifetime Data

We propose a general family of mixture hazard models to analyze lifetime data associated with bathtub and multimodal hazard functions. With this model we have a great flexibility for fitting lifetime data. Its version with covariates has the proportional hazard and the accelerated failure time models as special cases. A Bayesian analysis is presented for the model using informative priors, using sampling‐based approaches to perform the Bayesian computations. A real example with a medical data illustrates the methodology.     

Combining data‐derived priors with postrelease monitoring data to predict persistence of reintroduced populations

Monitoring is an essential part of reintroduction programs, but many years of data may be needed to obtain reliable population projections. This duration can potentially be reduced by incorporating prior information on expected vital rates (survival and fecundity) when making inferences from monitoring data. The prior distributions for these parameters can be derived from data for previous reintroductions, but it is important to account for site‐to‐site variation. We evaluated whether such informative priors improved our ability to estimate the finite rate of increase (λ) of the North Island robin (Petroica longipes) population reintroduced to Tawharanui Regional Park, New Zealand. We assessed how precision improved with each year of postrelease data added, comparing models that used informative or uninformative priors. The population grew from about 22 to 80 individuals from 2007 to 2016, with λ estimated to be 1.23 if density dependence was included in the model and 1.13 otherwise. Under either model, 7 years of data were required before the lower 95% credible limit for λ was > 1, giving confidence that the population would persist. The informative priors did not reduce this requirement. Data‐derived priors are useful before reintroduction because they allow λ to be estimated in advance. However, in the case examined here, the value of the priors was overwhelmed once site‐specific monitoring data became available. The Bayesian method presented is logical for reintroduced populations. It allows prior information (used to inform prerelease decisions) to be integrated with postrelease monitoring. This makes full use of the data for ongoing management decisions. However, if the priors properly account for site‐to‐site variation, they may have little predictive value compared with the site‐specific data. This value will depend on the degree of site‐to‐site variation as well as the quality of the data.     

Bayesian modeling of age-specific survival in bird nesting studies under irregular visits

In this article, a Bayesian model for age-specific nest survival rates is presented to handle the irregular visit case. Both informative priors and noninformative priors are investigated. The reference prior under this model is derived, and, therefore, the hyperparameter specification problem is solved to some extent. The Bayesian method provides a more accurate estimate of the total survival rate than the standard Mayfield method, if the age-specific hazard rates are not constant. The Bayesian method also lets the biologist look for high- and low-survival rates during the whole nesting period. In practice, it is common for data of several types to be collected in a single study. That is, some nests may be aged, others are not. Some nests are visited regularly; others are visited irregularly. The Bayesian method accommodates any mix of these sampling techniques by assuming that the aging and visiting activities have no effect on the survival rate. The methods are illustrated by an analysis of the Missouri northern bobwhite data set.     

Cross-sectional geometric analysis of a foot bone assemblage from Mangaia, Cook Islands

This study describes a human foot bone assemblage from prehistoric Mangaia, Cook Islands in the context of diaphyseal cross-sectional strength measures. We use this sample to test the hypothesis that habitually unshod individuals who walk over rugged terrain will have stronger foot bones than a sample of habitually shod industrialized people. Specifically, we examine whether the Mangaian sample has a stronger size-adjusted metatarsal (MT) and phalangeal cross-sectional properties than the industrial sample, drawn from the Terry Collection. Contrary to expectations, residual analyses showed that most values of cross-sectional area (CA) and torsional resistance (J) of MTs 1-4 and the hallucal proximal phalanx (HPP) of the Mangaians are among those in the lower range of the Terry Collection sample. However, the bending strength ratios (Zy/Zx) of the Mangaian HPP are significantly greater than those of the Terry Collection. While characteristics such as forefoot shape variation between the sexes and among geographic populations cannot be ruled out as influential factors, cross-sectional properties of the hallucal proximal phalanges, but not the MTs, indicate terrain complexity in prehistoric populations.     

Interobserver error in macroscopic methods of estimating age at death from the human skeleton

This research evaluates the interobserver error when the macroscopic methods recommended by American and European anthropologists to estimate age at death of a skeleton, were applied to a sample of the Terry Collection (Smithsonian Institution, Washington D.C.). Although no statistical differences among observers were found for any of these methods, small dissimilarities suggest that techniques using a narrower scale of categories produce greater agreement among researchers. The present study is within a wider research project designed to evaluate the accuracy of these methods, when applied to an identified (age known) sample of 963 skeleton from the Terry Collection.