Opportunities and challenges of sustainable agricultural development in China

This paper introduces the concepts and aims of sustainable agriculture in China. Sustainable agricultural development comprises sustainability of agricultural production, sustainability of the rural economy, ecological and environmental sustainability within agricultural systems and sustainability of rural society. China's prime aim is to ensure current and future food security. Based on projections of China's population, its economy, societal factors and agricultural resources and inputs between 2000 and 2050, total grain supply and demand has been predicted and the state of food security analysed. Total and per capita demand for grain will increase continuously. Total demand will reach 648 Mt in 2020 and 700 Mt in 2050, while total grain yield of cultivated land will reach 470 Mt in 2010, 585 Mt in 2030 and 656 Mt in 2050. The per capita grain production will be around 360kg in the period 2000-2030 and reach 470kg in 2050. When productivities of cultivated land and other agricultural resources are all taken into consideration, China's food self-sufficiency ratio will increase from 94.4% in 2000 to 101.3% in 2030, suggesting that China will meet its future demand for food and need for food security. Despite this positive assessment, the country's sustainable agricultural development has encountered many obstacles. These include: agricultural water-use shortage; cultivated land loss; inappropriate usage of fertilizers and pesticides, and environmental degradation.     

Home gardens: neglected hotspots of agro-biodiversity and cultural diversity

Over the last two decades, the importance of conserving genetic resources has received increasing attention. In this context the role of home gardens as repositories of biological diversity has been acknowledged but still a comprehensive, interdisciplinary investigation of their agro-biodiversity is lacking. Home gardens, whether found in rural or urban areas, are characterized by a structural complexity and multifunctionality which enables the provision of different benefits to ecosystems and people. Studies carried out in various countries demonstrate that high levels of inter- and intra-specific plant genetic diversity, especially in terms of traditional crop varieties and landraces, are preserved in home gardens. Families engage in food production for subsistence or small-scale marketing and the variety of crops and wild plants provides nutritional benefits. At the same time, home gardens are important social and cultural spaces where knowledge related to agricultural practices is transmitted and through which households may improve their income and livelihoods. The present article summarizes available literature on the biological and cultural significance of agro-biodiversity in home gardens. It discusses future constraints and opportunities in home garden research, in the prospect of defining and promoting their role in conservation of agricultural biodiversity and cultural heritage.     

Reflections on food security under water scarcity

Forecasts on population growth and economic development indicate that there will be substantial increases in food demand for the forthcoming decades. We focus here on the water requirements of food production, on the issue of whether there would be enough water to produce sufficient food in the future, and we offer options to face this challenge based on recent trends observed in some agricultural systems. Given the competition for water faced by the agricultural sector, and the uncertainties associated with climate change, improving the efficiency of water use in both rain-fed and irrigated systems is the main avenue to face the challenge. In rain-fed agriculture, managing the risk associated with rainfall variability is a promising option to increase productivity. In irrigated systems, a case study on the improvements in water productivity in Andalusia, Spain, is used to illustrate some of the opportunities to make progress. Progress in reducing irrigation water use in recent decades has been substantial, but decreasing the consumptive use of crops is a much more difficult challenge. The need for more research and technology transfer on improving water-limited crop production is highlighted, and emphasis is placed on interdisciplinary approaches to gain the insight needed to achieve new breakthroughs that would help in tackling this complex problem.     

Exploitation of endophytes for sustainable agricultural intensification

Intensive agriculture, which depends on unsustainable levels of agrochemical inputs, is environmentally harmful, and the expansion of these practices to meet future needs is not economically feasible. Other options should be considered to meet the global food security challenge. The plant microbiome has been linked to improved plant productivity and, in this microreview, we consider the endosphere – a subdivision of the plant microbiome. We suggest a new definition of microbial endophyte status, the need for synergy between fungal and bacterial endophyte research efforts, as well as potential strategies for endophyte application to agricultural systems.     

Rural-to-Urban Labor Migration,Household Livelihoods,and the Rural Environment in Chongqing Municipality,Southwest China

Rural migration and its relationship to the rural environment have attracted increasing research interest in recent decades. Rural migration constitutes a key component of human population movement, while rural areas contain most of the world’s natural resources such as land and forests. This study empirically evaluates a conceptual framework incorporating rural household livelihoods as an integrative mediating factor between rural migration and the rural environment in the context of rural-to-urban labor migration in Chongqing Municipality, Southwest China. The analysis draws on data collected through household surveys and key informant interviews from four villages. Results confirm the hypothesis that labor-migrant and non-labor-migrant households differ significantly in livelihood activities including agricultural production, agricultural technology use, income and consumption, and resource use and management. Implications for the subsequent environmental outcomes of rural labor out-migration and corresponding natural resource management and policy in rural origin areas are discussed.     

Secular trend in age at menarche in China: a case study of two rural counties in Anhui Province.

There is increasing evidence that age at menarche has decreased in Europe and the United States during the last century and in Japan over the last several decades. Data from a community-based survey conducted in two rural counties of Anhui Province in China indicate a similar, downward secular trend in age at menarche for Chinese women. The present study shows the mean age at menarche decreased by 2.8 years, from 16.5 to 13.7, over an approximate 40-year time interval. This rapid decrease in age at menarche may partly be due to better nutrition and living standards reflected by the improved socioeconomic standards experienced in China over the past few decades. To test this hypothesis, a number of determinants of age at menarche were assessed; year of birth, literacy status, county of residence, amount of physical labour, general health status, pesticide exposure before age at menarche, and drinking water source were all found to be associated with age at menarche.     

General Trends of Technological Changes in Agriculture

In this article we show that technological development in agriculture exhibits general trends when assessed on a large scale. These trends are generated by changes in the larger socioeconomic context in which the farming system operates. We characterize agricultural performance by land and farm labor productivity and the pattern of use of technological inputs. By means of a cross-sectional analysis of agricultural performance of 20 countries (at the national level), we show that increases in demographic pressure and socioeconomic pressure (increases in average income and labor productivity) in society are the main driving forces of technological development in agriculture. Further, it is shown that the ecological impact of farming (environmental loading) is linked to the particular combination of land productivity and labor productivity at which the agricultural sector operates (through the particular mix and the level of inputs used in agricultural production). Briefly we discuss the role of international trade in agricultural policies and performance. Special attention is given to the situation of Chinese agriculture.     

Competition for water for the food system

Although the global agricultural system will need to provide more food for a growing and wealthier population in decades to come, increasing demands for water and potential impacts of climate change pose threats to food systems. We review the primary threats to agricultural water availability, and model the potential effects of increases in municipal and industrial (M&I) water demands, environmental flow requirements (EFRs) and changing water supplies given climate change. Our models show that, together, these factors cause an 18 per cent reduction in the availability of worldwide water for agriculture by 2050. Meeting EFRs, which can necessitate more than 50 per cent of the mean annual run-off in a basin depending on its hydrograph, presents the single biggest threat to agricultural water availability. Next are increases in M&I demands, which are projected to increase upwards of 200 per cent by 2050 in developing countries with rapidly increasing populations and incomes. Climate change will affect the spatial and temporal distribution of run-off, and thus affect availability from the supply side. The combined effect of these factors can be dramatic in particular hotspots, which include northern Africa, India, China, parts of Europe, the western US and eastern Australia, among others.     

Food Shortages and International Agricultural Programs

The most recent data indicate an unconscionable 842 million people are chronically hungry in the world, 94 percent in developing countries. India, China, and other Asian countries that were the center of concern over hunger in 1960 have been among the most successful at increasing food production and consumption. Current food shortages, both chronic and acute, are concentrated in sub-Sahara Africa. There, production has lagged behind needs and fluctuations from natural and human-caused disasters have generated recurring food shortages and need for food aid. Three elements played critical roles in Asia and are likely to be the key to solving food shortages in Africa: rural/agricultural economic growth that generated increased incomes for the rural poor, stability of food prices, and non-agricultural economic growth. U.S. universities have educated many of the agricultural scientists in developing countries and those at CGIAR centers. The international agricultural programs of U.S. universities that have been important in maintaining links between U.S. and foreign institutions and in facilitating the training of developing country scientists need continued financial support.     

Impacts of intensifying or expanding cereal cropping in sub‐Saharan Africa on greenhouse gas emissions and food security

Cropping is responsible for substantial emissions of greenhouse gasses (GHGs) worldwide through the use of fertilizers and through expansion of agricultural land and associated carbon losses. Especially in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA), GHG emissions from these processes might increase steeply in coming decades, due to tripling demand for food until 2050 to match the steep population growth. This study assesses the impact of achieving cereal self‐sufficiency by the year 2050 for 10 SSA countries on GHG emissions related to different scenarios of increasing cereal production, ranging from intensifying production to agricultural area expansion. We also assessed different nutrient management variants in the intensification. Our analysis revealed that irrespective of intensification or extensification, GHG emissions of the 10 countries jointly are at least 50% higher in 2050 than in 2015. Intensification will come, depending on the nutrient use efficiency achieved, with large increases in nutrient inputs and associated GHG emissions. However, matching food demand through conversion of forest and grasslands to cereal area likely results in much higher GHG emissions. Moreover, many countries lack enough suitable land for cereal expansion to match food demand. In addition, we analysed the uncertainty in our GHG estimates and found that it is caused primarily by uncertainty in the IPCC Tier 1 coefficient for direct N₂O emissions, and by the agronomic nitrogen use efficiency (N‐AE). In conclusion, intensification scenarios are clearly superior to expansion scenarios in terms of climate change mitigation, but only if current N‐AE is increased to levels commonly achieved in, for example, the United States, and which have been demonstrated to be feasible in some locations in SSA. As such, intensifying cereal production with good agronomy and nutrient management is essential to moderate inevitable increases in GHG emissions. Sustainably increasing crop production in SSA is therefore a daunting challenge in the coming decades.     

The Role of Latin America’s Land and Water Resources for Global Food Security: Environmental Trade-Offs of Future Food Production Pathways

One of humanity’s major challenges of the 21st century will be meeting future food demands on an increasingly resource constrained-planet. Global food production will have to rise by 70 percent between 2000 and 2050 to meet effective demand which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity is an even greater challenge. This study looks at the interdependencies between land and water resources, agricultural production and environmental outcomes in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), an area of growing importance in international agricultural markets. Special emphasis is given to the role of LAC’s agriculture for (a) global food security and (b) environmental sustainability. We use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)—a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector—to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050, and assess changes in related environmental indicators. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Finally, our analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths.     

黄土高原典型流域种植业发展模式的能值分析

为客观评估和比较退耕还林后黄土高原典型小流域不同种植业发展模式的稳定性和可持续性,本研究通过能值分析方法,定量分析了粮食和果树兼作、粮食生产为主和果树种植为主3种典型流域种植业系统的能值投入和产出情况,建立能值分析指标体系,在自然资源压力、社会和经济发展水平方面进行比较,进而对3种模式的系统可持续性进行评估.结果表明: 黄土高原典型流域不同类型种植业系统外部辅助能值均占总能值投入的75%以上,且其中不可更新能值所占比例远大于可更新能值,由此造成了能值自给率低而环境承载率高的特点;流域粮食种植业生产具有高投入、低产出的特点,而水果种植和粮果兼作具有高投入、高产出的特点,3种模式能值密度均达到全国农业经济系统平均水平2倍以上,其中,粮食生产为主的模式净能值产出率最低而粮果兼作型最高;流域种植业能值可持续发展指数均<1,能值/环境可持续指标均远低于全国农业系统平均水平,可持续发展能力较低,以粮食和果树兼作的模式可持续发展指数最高.3种模式比较发现,粮果兼作发展模式在流域种植业发展中具有相对较好的发展能力和较高的系统稳定性,能值生产效率适中且可持续性最高,因此黄土高原地区以流域为单元的农业发展应该更加偏向于考虑多产业综合的复合结构生产方式.     

Spatial and Temporal Variations of Crop Fertilization and Soil Fertility in the Loess Plateau in China from the 1970s to the 2000s

Increased fertilizer input in agricultural systems during the last few decades has resulted in large yield increases, but also in environmental problems. We used data from published papers and a soil testing and fertilization project in Shaanxi province during the years 2005 to 2009 to analyze chemical fertilizer inputs and yields of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) on the farmers'' level, and soil fertility change from the 1970s to the 2000s in the Loess Plateau in China. The results showed that in different regions of the province, chemical fertilizer NPK inputs and yields of wheat and maize increased. With regard to soil nutrient balance, N and P gradually changed from deficit to surplus levels, while K deficiency became more severe. In addition, soil organic matter, total nitrogen, alkali-hydrolysis nitrogen, available phosphorus and available potassium increased during the same period. The PFP of N, NP and NPK on wheat and maize all decreased from the 1970s to the 2000s as a whole. With the increase in N fertilizer inputs, both soil total nitrogen and alkali-hydrolysis nitrogen increased; P fertilizer increased soil available phosphorus and K fertilizer increased soil available potassium. At the same time, soil organic matter, total nitrogen, alkali-hydrolysis nitrogen, available phosphorus and available potassium all had positive impacts on crop yields. In order to promote food safety and environmental protection, fertilizer requirements should be assessed at the farmers'' level. In many cases, farmers should be encouraged to reduce nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer inputs significantly, but increase potassium fertilizer and organic manure on cereal crops as a whole.     

Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest‐weed‐disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades.     

Modelling Representative Life Cycle Inventories for Swiss Arable Crops (9 pp)

Goal, Scope and Background Life cycle inventories (LCIs) of agricultural products, infrastructure, inputs and processes are required to optimise food supply chains. In the past, the use of LCA was hindered by the limited availability of databases with LCIs for such agricultural inputs, processes and products in combination with LCIs of other major economic sectors. The ecoinvent database covers this need for the Swiss, and to an extent, the European context. A suitable approach had to be outlined for defining representative datasets for products from arable crops, since there was no comprehensive survey of agricultural production.Methods No single data source was available for defining representative datasets for arable crops. It was therefore decided to define model crops on the basis of a variety of sources in collaboration with experts on the crops in question. The datasets were validated by experts and by comparison with literature. Field emissions were calculated using a set of models taking into account situation-specific parameters. Data defined by this procedure are more generally usable, but their definition is also more laborious. Results and Discussion Selected results (inventories and impact assessment) are presented for infrastructure (buildings, machinery), work processes, fertilisers, pesticides, seed and arable crop products. Infrastructure has a higher share of environmental impacts than in typical industrial processes, often due to low utilisation rates. Energy use is dominated by mechanisation, the use of mineral fertilisers (particularly nitrogen) and grain drying. Eutrophication is caused mainly by nitrogen compounds. In general, field emissions are of decisive importance for many environmental impacts. Conclusion and Outlook The ecoinvent database provides representative agricultural data for the Swiss, and to an extent, the European context. It also provides the meta-information necessary for deciding whether a dataset is suitable for the purpose of a particular LCA study. To further improve the representativeness of the datasets, an environmental farm monitoring network is required.     

Meeting the challenge of food and energy security

Growing crops for bioenergy or biofuels is increasingly viewed as conflicting with food production. However, energy use continues to rise and food production requires fuel inputs, which have increased with intensification. Focussing on the question of food or fuel is thus not helpful. The bigger, more pertinent, challenge is how the increasing demands for food and energy can be met in the future, particularly when water and land availability will be limited. Energy crop production systems differ greatly in environmental impact. The use of high-input food crops for liquid transport fuels (first-generation biofuels) needs to be phased out and replaced by the use of crop residues and low-input perennial crops (second/advanced-generation biofuels) with multiple environmental benefits. More research effort is needed to improve yields of biomass crops grown on lower grade land, and maximum value should be extracted through the exploitation of co-products and integrated biorefinery systems. Policy must continually emphasize the changes needed and tie incentives to improved greenhous gas reduction and environmental performance of biofuels.     

气候变暖对中国西北地区农作物种植的影响

采用对农作物生长有指标意义的≥10℃积温和<0℃负积温与农作物适宜种植面积、生长发育速度及产量进行对比统计分析研究,指出气候变暖对中国西北地区农作物种植结构发生了较大改变,冬小麦种植区西伸北扩,棉花面积迅速扩大,多熟制向北和高海拔地区推移.农作物生长发育速度发生了明显变化,春播作物提早播种,喜温作物生育期延长,越冬作物推迟播种,生育期缩短.棉花气候产量明显增加.     

Engineering precision into variable biological systems

Technology change stimulates the expectations of society and seeks to satisfy its demands. Continuing advances in electronics and information technology over the last 20 years have responded to the challenge posed by the environmental impacts of agricultural production systems. Future agriculture will require precision techniques to assemble information and achieve increasingly precise and responsive management practices in order to reduce wasteful inputs, and meet the social and economic pressures for safe high quality food at lower cost. Biosystems engineering, an interdisciplinary science linking biology, physics, engineering and mathematics, can provide understanding and then innovative precision solutions for agriculture. Public and industry investment will be needed to achieve the necessary goals of lower environmental impact, and precision techniques will make a signi. cant contribution. Worldwide, the availability of tools that allow accurate control of inputs and traceable management of food production will contribute to sustainable food production for all. The vision is of systems that utilise sensing methods and mathematical models of the biological process, and link them through to control algorithms that realise practical benefits. Tools to measure spatial variation in crop yield will draw on statistical models to interpret complex variation and provide robust information to justify variable input management. Machine vision will interpret complex natural scenes, leading to real‐time control, and biosensors will be incorporated into automated systems for sensing animal fertility status, leading to automatic monitoring of animal health and welfare.     

Trees,soils, and food security

Trees have a different impact on soil properties than annual crops, because of their longer residence time, larger biomass accumulation, and longer-lasting, more extensive root systems. In natural forests nutrients are efficiently cycled with very small inputs and outputs from the system. In most agricultural systems the opposite happens. Agroforestry encompasses the continuum between these extremes, and emerging hard data is showing that successful agroforestry systems increase nutrient inputs, enhance internal flows, decrease nutrient losses and provide environmental benefits: when the competition for growth resources between the tree and the crop component is well managed. The three main determinants for overcoming rural poverty in Africa are (i) reversing soil fertility depletion, (ii) intensifying and diversifying land use with high-value products, and (iii) providing an enabling policy environment for the smallholder farming sector. Agroforestry practices can improve food production in a sustainable way through their contribution to soil fertility replenishment. The use of organic inputs as a source of biologically-fixed nitrogen, together with deep nitrate that is captured by trees, plays a major role in nitrogen replenishment. The combination of commercial phosphorus fertilizers with available organic resources may be the key to increasing and sustaining phosphorus capital. High-value trees, ''Cinderella'' species, can fit in specific niches on farms, thereby making the system ecologically stable and more rewarding economically, in addition to diversifying and increasing rural incomes and improving food security. In the most heavily populated areas of East Africa, where farm size is extremely small, the number of trees on farms is increasing as farmers seek to reduce labour demands, compatible with the drift of some members of the family into the towns to earn off-farm income. Contrary to the concept that population pressure promotes deforestation, there is evidence that demonstrates that there are conditions under which increasing tree planting is occurring on farms in the tropics through successful agroforestry as human population density increases. <br>     

Impact of climate warming on crop planting and production in Northwest China

One major challenge in agro-meteorological research is to accurately predict the impacts of global climate warming on future agricultural production. So the effects of climate warming over the past decades need to be assessed. We analyzed the effects of climate warming on crop planting, structure and yield in 5 northwestern provinces of China with a focus on Gansu Province, utilizing accumulated temperature (≥ 10°C, AT), accumulated negative temperature (< 0°C, ANT) and crop data collected from 1981 to 2003. The analysis led to the following conclusions: 1) climate warming is the main driving force for the expansion of winter wheat toward the north and the west in China, for the rapid increase in cotton planting acreage, and for the expansion of annually multi-crop areas toward the north in China and higher altitude; 2) Climate warming is the direct cause for early seeding of spring crops, prolonged growth duration for thermophilic crops and shortened growth duration for overwinter crops; 3) Climate warming is largely attributed to the dramatic increase in cotton yield.