Can possible evolutionary outcomes be determined directly from the population dynamics?

Traditionally, to determine the possible evolutionary behaviour of an ecological system using adaptive dynamics, it is necessary to calculate the fitness and its derivatives at a singular point. We investigate the claim that the possible evolutionary behaviour can be predicted directly from the population dynamics, without the need for calculation, by applying three criteria — one based on the form of the density dependent rates and two on the role played by the evolving parameters. Taking a general continuous time model, with broad ecological range, we show that the claim is true. Initially, we assume that individuals enter in class 1 and move through population classes sequentially; later we relax these assumptions and find that the criteria still apply. However, when we consider models where the evolving parameters appear non-linearly in the dynamics, we find some aspects of the criteria fail; useful but weaker results on possible evolutionary behaviour now apply.     

Do social learning and conformist bias coevolve? Henrich and Boyd revisited

We studied the coevolution of social learning and conformist bias in a modified version of the Henrich and Boyd [1998. The evolution of conformist transmission and the emergence of between-group differences. Evol. Hum. Behav. 19, 215-241] model that nevertheless preserves its essential features. The convergent stable strategies (CSS) are identified by a numerical adaptive dynamics method and then checked for evolutionary stability. A strategy that is simultaneously a CSS and an ESS is called an attractive evolutionarily stable strategy (AESS). Our main findings are as follows. First, the AESS reliance on social learning is monotone increasing in the fixed interval between environmental changes and monotone decreasing in the quality of environmental information. Second, the AESS strength of conformist bias is monotone non-increasing in the fixed interval between environmental changes and monotone non-decreasing in the quality of environmental information. The first observation is in agreement with Henrich and Boyd (1998), but the second is in direct contradiction. In addition, we conducted Monte Carlo simulations as in Henrich and Boyd (1998), which supported our findings. We believe that the reason for the discrepancy with regard to the strength of conformist bias is that Henrich and Boyd (1998) did not allow a sufficient number of iterations for true convergence to occur. In conclusion, the conditions favoring a heavy reliance on social learning are not the same as those favoring a strong conformist bias.     

A mixed strategy model for the emergence and intensification of social learning in a periodically changing natural environment

Based on a population genetic model of mixed strategies determined by alleles of small effect, we derive conditions for the evolution of social learning in an infinite-state environment that changes periodically over time. Each mixed strategy is defined by the probabilities that an organism will commit itself to individual learning, social learning, or innate behavior. We identify the convergent stable strategies (CSS) by a numerical adaptive dynamics method and then check the evolutionary stability (ESS) of these strategies. A strategy that is simultaneously a CSS and an ESS is called an attractive ESS (AESS). For certain parameter sets, a bifurcation diagram shows that the pure individual learning strategy is the unique AESS for short periods of environmental change, a mixed learning strategy is the unique AESS for intermediate periods, and a mixed learning strategy (with a relatively large social learning component) and the pure innate strategy are both AESS's for long periods. This result entails that, once social learning emerges during a transient era of intermediate environmental periodicity, a subsequent elongation of the period may result in the intensification of social learning, rather than a return to innate behavior.     

Conditional dispersal under kin competition: extension of the Hamilton-May model to brood size-dependent dispersal

I consider a site-based model with contest competition among siblings, and assume that dispersal is conditional on the number of offspring in the natal site. Evolutionarily stable populations contain threshold dispersal strategies, which retain a certain number of offspring in the natal site and disperse the rest (if the actual number of offspring is less than the threshold, then all offspring are retained). Due to the discrete nature of the strategy set (the threshold must be integer), the ESS may not be unique or may not exist. In the latter case, two neighboring threshold strategies coexist in the evolutionarily stable population. Dispersal first decreases and then increases as a function of dispersal mortality, such that all but one offspring should be dispersed both when dispersal mortality is very small or very high. Population-level dispersal fractions are often similar to the unconditional ESS, but differ strongly when fecundity is small and dispersal mortality is high.     

Evolution of condition-dependent dispersal under kin competition

Dispersers often differ in body condition from non-dispersers. The social dominance hypothesis explains dispersal of weak individuals, but it is not yet well understood why strong individuals, which could easily retain their natal site, are sometimes exposed to risky dispersal. Based on the model for dispersal under kin competition by Hamilton and May, we construct a model where dispersal propensity depends on body condition. We consider an annual species that inhabits a patchy environment with varying patch qualities. Offspring body condition corresponds to the quality of the natal patch and competitive ability increases with body condition. Our main general result balances the fitness benefit from not dispersing and retaining the natal patch and the benefit from dispersing and establishing somewhere else. We present four different examples for competition, which all hint that dispersal of strong individuals may be a common outcome under the assumptions of the present model. In three of the examples, the evolutionarily stable dispersal probability is an increasing function of body condition. However, we found an example where, counterintuitively, the evolutionarily stable dispersal probability is a non-monotone function of body condition such that both very weak and very strong individuals disperse with high probability but individuals of intermediate body condition do not disperse at all.     

Body condition dependent dispersal in a heterogeneous environment

We find the evolutionarily stable dispersal behaviour of a population that inhabits a heterogeneous environment where patches differ in safety (the probability that a juvenile individual survives until reproduction) and productivity (the total competitive weight of offspring produced by the local individual), assuming that these characteristics do not change over time. The body condition of clonally produced offspring varies within and between families. Offspring compete for patches in a weighted lottery, and dispersal is driven by kin competition. Survival during dispersal may depend on body condition, and competitive ability increases with increasing body condition. The evolutionarily stable strategy predicts that families abandon patches which are too unsafe or do not produce enough successful dispersers. From families that invest in retaining their natal patches, individuals stay in the patch that are less suitable for dispersal whereas the better dispersers disperse. However, this clear within-family pattern is often not reflected in the population-wide body condition distribution of dispersers or non-dispersers. This may be an explanation why empirical data do not show any general relationship between body condition and dispersal. When all individuals are equally good dispersers, then there exist equivalence classes defined by the competitive weight that remains in a patch. An equivalence class consists of infinitely many dispersal strategies that are selectively neutral. This provides an explanation why very diverse patterns found in body condition dependent dispersal data can all be equally evolutionarily stable.     

Landscape dynamics and evolution of colonizer syndromes: interactions between reproductive effortand dispersal in a metapopulation

The evolutionary consequences of changes in landscape dynamics for the evolution of life history syndromes are studied using a metapopulation model. We consider in turn the long-term effects of a change in the local disturbance rate, in the maximal local population persistence, in habitat productivity, and in habitat fragmentation. We examine the consequences of selective interactions between dispersal and reproductive effort by comparing the outcome of joint evolution to a situation where the species has lost the potential to evolve either its reproductive effort or its dispersal rate. We relax the classical assumption that any occupied site in the metapopulation reaches its carrying capacity immediately after recolonization. Our main conclusions are the following: (1) genetic diversity modifies the range of landscape parameters for which the metapopulation is viable, but it alters very little the qualitative evolutionary trends observed for each trait within this range. Although they are both part of a competition/colonization axis, reproductive effort and dispersal are not substitutable traits: their evolution reflects more directly the change in the landscape dynamics, than a selective interaction among them. (2) no general syndrome of covariation between reproductive effort and dispersal can be predicted: the pattern of association between the two traits depends on the type of change in landscape dynamics and on the saturation level. We review empirical evidence on colonizer syndromes and suggest lines for further empirical work. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Adaptive feeding across environmental gradients and its effect on population dynamics

This paper analyzes a consumer's adaptive feeding response to environmental gradients. We consider a consumer-resource system where resources are distributed among many discrete resource patches. Each consumer exhibits a feeding morphology allowing it to remove resources from a patch down to some threshold density (or level) before having to seek resources elsewhere. Assuming consumers trade off resource extraction with patch access and predation, we show that for a given environment there often exists a single evolutionarily stable feeding threshold and it is an evolutionary attractor. We then investigate how the population dynamics of the resource and the consumer change as the environment changes. Two cases are considered: (i) all consumers exhibit a fixed feeding threshold that is adaptive for an intermediate environment; and (ii) the consumer population adapts and adopts the evolutionarily stable feeding threshold associated with the current environment. In less harsh environments (i.e., environments where consumers experience a lower risk of predation, or environments where resource patches are more abundant) the adaptive consumer population is predicted to evolve so that resources within a patch are depleted to lower densities. We show that the change in consumer density due to environmental change can be rather different depending on whether or not the population can adapt. In some situations we observe that when the consumer's environment becomes harsher, the consumer population may increase in density before a rapid crash to extinction. This result has implications for monitoring and managing a population.     

Nutrient enrichment and food chains: can evolution buffer top-down control?

We show how evolutionary dynamics can alter the predictions of classical models of the effects of nutrient enrichment on food webs. We compare an ecological nutrient-plant-herbivore food-chain model without evolution with the same model, including herbivore evolution, plant evolution, or both. When only herbivores are allowed to evolve, the predictions are similar to those of the ecological model without evolution, i.e., plant biomass does not change with nutrient addition. When only plants evolve, nutrient enrichment leads to an increase in the biomass of all compartments. In contrast, when plants and herbivores are allowed to coevolve, although these two classical patterns are common, a wide variety of other responses is possible. The form of the trade-offs that constrain evolution of the two protagonists is then critical. This stresses the need for experimental data on phenotypic traits, their costs and their influence on the interactions between organisms and the rest of the community.