城市能源利用碳足迹分析——以厦门市为例

城市能源利用碳足迹分析综合考虑直接与间接碳排放,对于深度分析碳排放的本质过程、制定科学全面的碳减排计划具有重要意义。以厦门市为研究案例,应用碳足迹的混合分析方法,对厦门市2009年能源利用碳足迹进行了分析,除了包括传统研究中的城市能源终端利用产生的直接碳排放,还计算了跨界交通和城市主要消耗物质的内含能引起的间接碳排放。研究结果表明:(1)城市边界内的工业、交通、商业等部门的能源消耗产生的直接碳排放(即层次1和层次2)只占到总碳足迹的64%,而一直被忽略的跨界交通和城市主要消耗物质的内含能引起的间接碳排放(层次3)占到36%;(2)在直接碳排放中,工业部门的碳排放贡献率最大,占到直接碳排放的55%,其中化工行业带来的碳排放占到工业部门的25%;(3)在间接碳排放中,跨界交通引起的碳排放占间接碳排放的27%,其中长途道路运输贡献率最大,占跨界交通碳排放的38%;主要材料内含能碳排放占间接碳排的73%,其中燃料的内含能碳排放占总内含能的份额最大,达51%。;(4)从人均碳足迹角度比较,厦门市人均碳足迹和丹佛市的人均直接碳排(层次1+层次2)分别为5.74 t CO2e/人、18.9 t CO2e/人,包含3个层次的人均碳足迹分别为9.01 tCO2e/人、25.3 t CO2e/人,其中跨界交通引起的碳排放均占总碳足迹的10%左右,主要材料的内含能引起的碳排放分别占到总碳足迹的26%、15%;通过国内外典型城市不同层次碳足迹比较可见厦门还是相对低碳的,但有个显著的特点是主要消耗物质的内含碳排放比例较高,这在一定程度上说明了发展中国家城市消耗更多的基础材料,进一步证明了传统核算中忽略的第3层次碳排放核算与管理的重要性。     

Expanding Opportunity Structures

Parental investment strategies are contingent on parental capacities and ecology. Parental embodied capital may be important in aspiration construction and investments in children’s human capital, which is especially important in urban environments where skills are directly tied to wage income. For Indo-Fijians, rural ecology strongly limits opportunities. Here this limitation is conceptualized as extrinsic risk and immune to reduction through enhanced parental investment. Urban migration is interpreted as a risk reduction strategy, given an expanded urban opportunity structure (lower extrinsic risk). Qualitative and quantitative data from 678 Indo-Fijian children suggest that, contingent on parental capacities, parents migrate in response to their perceptions of decreased opportunities that manifest as high levels of extrinsic risk in rural environments. Parental investment in quality and quantity corresponds to parental perceptions of extrinsic risk, which in turn correspond to migration status, indicating that parental strategies do respond to perceived limits on investment payoffs.     

The Behavioral Ecology of Family Planning

Family planning is the usual modern route to producing a small family. Can human behavioral ecology provide a framework for understanding family planning behavior? Hillard S. Kaplan (Yearb. Phys. Anthropol. 39:91–135) has proposed a general theory of human parental investment based on the importance of skills development in children. As modern, skills-based, competitive market economies are established, parental investment strategies would be predicted to become oriented toward producing increasingly competitive offspring in a pattern of coordinated investment in their embodied capital—in other words, skills training along with good health to ensure their long-term productivity. Parental embodied capital and resources are also expected to be associated with motivation to produce competitive offspring. The basic parental investment trade-off between quality and quantity should predict greater investment in fewer children and the adoption of family planning behavior. Data on family planning in two ethnic groups in Northeast India (Khasi and Bengali) currently experiencing early-phase transition into modern market economies from very different social and ecological baselines are examined within this analytical framework. The results show a mixture of strategies in conjunction with family planning that involve decreased as well as increased investment in the embodied capital of children among Bengali and a divergence of investments in education and health among Khasi. These mixtures of strategies provide some insight into the motivations to use family planning in the face of economic transition, given differing local cultural and ecological conditions and the opportunity structures they provide.     

Urbanization and Daughter-Biased Parental Investment in Fiji

Parental investment decisions guide parental actions regarding children's productive work and are shaped by ecological context. Urban ecology enhances long-term payoffs to investment in human capital, increasing opportunity costs for work performed by children, and decreased workload should result. Using an embodied capital framework, self-reported data on urban and rural Indo-Fijian children's work activities are compared. Results show higher workloads for older children, rural children, and girls. High scholastic achievement is associated with lower workloads for girls, but not boys. This pattern is interpreted as daughter-biased investment in the context of urbanization.     

The energy embodied in the first and second industrial revolutions

Understanding the nature of energy embodied in economies is essential to assessing their potential to grow or transform sustainably. As the first country to undergo industrialization, study of the United Kingdom during the Industrial Revolution is particularly important for understanding transformational processes. Historical accounts describe how exploitation of Britain's coal reserves supported the evolution of steel production, railways, and other industries; yet reconstructions of the UK's eighteenth/nineteenth century economy have found relatively small contributions from coal mining to economic growth. Here, economic input‐output models for 1841 and 1907 are used to calculate the coal embodied in capital investment, consumption, and exports. Most of the coal was embodied in consumption in 1841, with coal embodied in exports growing particularly fast by 1907. The coal embodied in capital was smaller, but the energy intensity of investment was about four times larger than the energy intensity of consumption. The coal embodied in building the capital stock, much of it used for production of materials such as iron, steel, and bricks, was important for economic growth and transformation. Using historical proxy data, it is estimated that ～1.1 billion imperial tons of coal (34,000 PJ) were used to build the UK's capital assets between 1760 and 1913. The conceptual model developed here helps to explain the role of energy in economic growth and is important to contemporary sustainable development. This article met the requirements for a gold – gold JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges .     

Effervescence and Ephemerality: Popular Urban Uprisings in Mozambique

This article analyses the large-scale popular urban uprisings that shook Mozambican cities on 1 and 2 September 2010, following the government's announcement of successive rises in the price of public transport fares and basic commodities. Using ethnographic material from the city of Chimoio and the capital Maputo, the following work highlights the organisational character of the ‘strikes’ (greves), as the popular uprisings were called, and explores them as a new form of organising political discontent. Comparing them to other historical and contemporary popular uprisings, this article argues that the strikes violently and rhizomically generated ephemeral and egalitarian forms of political authority and order that simultaneously confronted, replicated and undercut the aspects of Mozambican statehood. Deploying Durkheim's notion of effervescence, the work further argues that the creative fervour, multisemic aspects and festive character of the popular uprisings need to be recognised; thus, this analysis challenges the reductive labelling of these events as ‘riots’ or ‘food riots’.     

The Energy Structure of the Canadian Economy

We developed a model of a national economy in which the phenomena of supply, demand, economic growth, and international trade are represented in terms of energy flows. In examining the structure of the economy, we distinguish between the energy embodied in capital assets used in the production and distribution of energy and that embodied in capital assets and goods that consume energy. Sources used to quantify the energy flows include: end‐use energy data by economic sector; International Energy Agency–style national energy balances, and national input‐output tables. As an example, the Canadian economy for 2008 produced 16.97 exajoules (EJ) of energy, which after net export of 6.16 EJ and other adjustments left a total primary energy consumption of 10.61 EJ. The energy supply and distribution sectors used close to 32% (3.36 EJ) of total primary consumption. Analysis of primary energy consumption shows that 25.14% was embodied in household consumption, 22.85% was consumed directly by households, 7.88% was embodied in government services, and 34.07% was embodied in exports. Of significance to economic growth, 7.14% was embodied in capital in energy demanding sectors, 1.25% in energy consuming personal assets, and 1.52% in supply sector capital. The energy return on energy investment was relatively constant, averaging 5.14 between 1990 and 2008. Capital investments required to decouple the Canadian economy from its dependence on fossil fuels are discerned.     

Gross Direct and Embodied Carbon Sinks for Urban Inventories

Cities and urban regions are undertaking efforts to quantify greenhouse (GHG) emissions from their jurisdictional boundaries. Although inventorying methodologies are beginning to standardize for GHG sources, carbon sequestration is generally not quantified. This article describes the methodology and quantification of gross urban carbon sinks. Sinks are categorized into direct and embodied sinks. Direct sinks generally incorporate natural process, such as humification in soils and photosynthetic biomass growth (in urban trees, perennial crops, and regional forests). Embodied sinks include activities associated with consumptive behavior that result in the import and/or storage of carbon, such as landfilling of waste, concrete construction, and utilization of durable wood products. Using methodologies based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2006 guidelines (for direct sinks) and peer‐reviewed literature (for embodied sinks), carbon sequestration for 2005 is calculated for the Greater Toronto Area. Direct sinks are found to be 317 kilotons of carbon (kt C), and are dominated by regional forest biomass. Embodied sinks are calculated to be 234 kt C based on one year's consumption, though a complete life cycle accounting of emissions would likely transform this sum from a carbon sink to a source. There is considerable uncertainty associated with the methodologies used, which could be addressed with city‐specific stock‐change measurements. Further options for enhancing carbon sink capacity within urban environments are explored, such as urban biomass growth and carbon capture and storage.     

Risk-seeking or impatient? Disentangling variance and time in hazardous behaviors

Individual observations of risky behaviors present a paradox: individuals who take the most risks in terms of hazards (smoking, speeding, risky sexual behaviors) are also less likely to take risks when it comes to innovation, financial risks or entrepreneurship. Existing theories of risk-preferences do not explain these patterns. From a simple model, we argue that many decisions involving risk have a temporal dimension, and that this dimension is often the main determinant of individual choices. In many real life instances, risk taking amounts to damaging the individual's capital (whether embodied capital, financial capital, social reputation, etc.), which would affect her over a long period of time after the risky decision. In evolutionary terms, the marginal cost of this type of risky behavior depends on the relative importance of the future in the individual's fitness (e.g. her time horizon). Individuals with short time horizons will give less importance to a degradation of their capital because this degradation will be paid effectively for a shorter period of time. This approach explains patterns of behaviors observed across socio-economic groups and puts forward new approaches to prevent hazardous behaviors such as smoking.     

The effects of residential ecology on patterns of child work and mother's reproductive success among Indo-Fijians

A central question in human life history theory surrounds the rapid pace of reproduction of human mothers. Accordingly, evolutionary anthropologists have debated who provides assistance to human mothers and how. Here, we develop an embodied capital framework (i.e., a parental investment strategy focused on improving the adult productivity of offspring) to understand urban–rural differences in the extent to which children help to underwrite the costs of their dependence among Indo-Fijians. We employ multiple regression analysis to explore the relationships among various categories of helpful activity, residential ecology and mother's reproductive success and show that, while rural children work more overall compared to urban children, childcare is the only productive activity with any relationship to mother's reproductive success. We conclude by providing support for the general idea that children are potentially important sources of allomaternal help, but emphasize the need for more nuanced models of how such help is provided.     

Learning, life history, and productivity

This article introduces a new model of the relationship between growth and learning and tests a set of hypotheses related to the development of adult competency using time allocation, anthropometric, and experimental task performance data collected between 1992 and 1997 in a multiethnic community in the Okavango Delta, Botswana. Building on seminal work in life history theory by Hawkes, Blurton Jones and associates, and Kaplan and associates, the punctuated development model presented here incorporates the effects of both growth and learning constraints on age-specific task performance. In addition, the payoff to investment in two forms of embodied capital, growth-based and learning-based, are examined in relation to features of the socioecology, including subsistence economy and family composition. The three main findings are:

Pulp Nonfiction: Regionalized Dynamic Model of the U.S. Pulp and Paper Industry

This article presents a modeling framework that enhances our ability to analyze the implications of policy for future sustainability of industrial systems. The framework quantifies the relationship between physical input and waste flows, capital vintage, and investment behavior in the U.S. pulp and paper industry. A regional vintage model is developed that simultaneously incorporates investment decisions, vintage structure of the capital stock, and physical material and energy flows, in addition to paper demand. Each capital vintage is specified by size, output structure, and age-specific retirement rates, as well as fiber use and energy intensities. Both embodied and disembodied technological change are incorporated, as well as greenhouse gas emissions from fuel use, and decomposition and incineration of waste. Estimated equations are used to simulate industrial futures until 2020, from a system of nonlinear differential equations.
Our results demonstrate the economic and physical inter-dependence between material and energy flows and the central role energy prices have in decision-making. For instance, an increase in average energy prices, ceteris paribus , will on average discourage paper recycling, which has implications for greenhouse gas emissions as well as for changes in energy intensity. The analysis of the data reveals diminishing rates of energy self-generation, and the immense longevity of capital, which hampers rapid change in input and carbon intensity. This stresses the importance of investment-led strategies in facilitating faster capital turnover to enhance future sustainability of the system.     

基于产业链视角的京津冀区域碳排放影响因素研究

随着京津冀一体化程度不断加深,产业交叉现象严重,深入研究京津冀区域各产业链路径碳排放的影响因素,对区域协同减排具有重要意义。使用环境扩展投入产出分析对2002—2017年京津冀区域消费端碳排放进行核算;利用结构分解分析识别京津冀区域碳排放的驱动因素;通过结构路径分解进一步从微观产业链层面追溯引起京津冀区域碳排放变动的关键路径及其关键因素。研究结果表明：资本形成是构成京津冀区域消费端碳排放的主要需求类别;经济规模和人口是促进碳排放增加的重要因素,碳排放强度对碳排放起到显著抑制作用,区域内产业结构、消费结构对北京市、天津市和河北省的碳排放影响存在差异;从产业链路径来看,不同碳排放驱动因素对京津冀区域不同产业链路径的影响大小和方向不同,应聚焦具体路径,实施上下游综合治理。     

Indo-Fijian Children’s BMI

Health research has shown that overweight and obesity in children and adults are becoming significant public health problems in the developing world. Evidence suggests that this phenomenon is more marked in urban than rural areas and may be associated with modernization. However, the underlying reasons for this nutrition transition remain unclear. Dietary shifts, often in conjunction with income and time constraints in urban environments, may entail a greater reliance on more convenient sugar and fat-dense food. Also, the necessity of labor-intensive agricultural work to meet rural subsistence needs is supplanted in urban environments by sedentary work. This paper extends the application of human behavioral ecology theory into the realm of international development and policy by applying Kaplan’s embodied capital theory to explore differences in food habits and nutritional status of Indo-Fijian children within the context of urbanization. Urban high-embodied-capital women demonstrate higher rates of wage-earning employment than urban low-embodied-capital or rural women. Findings indicate that urban high-embodied-capital households spend significantly more on food purchases, purchase a greater proportion of processed foods, and have children with higher body mass indexes (BMI) than do urban low-embodied-capital or rural households. This suggests that urban high-embodied-capital mothers, who tend to be employed, may be making trade-offs between income and food choices.

城市代谢研究评述:内涵与方法

随着城市发展面临的生态问题日益显著,部分研究者试图通过对自然生态系统进行类比来寻求解决途径,城市代谢理论应运而生。当以系统科学来研究城市生态系统时,哲学思想的引入为探索和城市及城市代谢的内涵提供了最原始的桥梁。因此,在介绍城市代谢内涵与研究进展的基础上,融合产业、家庭、社会等多尺度代谢理论,对城市代谢的边界进行扩展,将其分为狭义与广义两类,结合亚里士多德的"四因说"对其质料因(组分)、形式因(结构)、动力因(驱动力)和目的因(功能)进行识别分析,据此将城市代谢研究方法归纳为质料、形式和混合研究方法三类,并提出未来研究的主要动向和解决手段。城市代谢"四因图"可为相关研究者提供参考。     

Status competition,inequality, and fertility: implications for the demographic transition

The role that social status plays in small-scale societies suggests that status may be important for understanding the evolution of human fertility decisions, and for understanding how such decisions play out in modern contexts. This paper explores whether modelling competition for status—in the sense of relative rank within a society—can help shed light on fertility decline and the demographic transition. We develop a model of how levels of inequality and status competition affect optimal investment by parents in the embodied capital (health, strength, and skills) and social status of offspring, focusing on feedbacks between individual decisions and socio-ecological conditions. We find that conditions similar to those in demographic transition societies yield increased investment in both embodied capital and social status, generating substantial decreases in fertility, particularly under conditions of high inequality and intense status competition. We suggest that a complete explanation for both fertility variation in small-scale societies and modern fertility decline will take into account the effects of status competition and inequality.     

中国城市生态基础设施对碳排放量的影响

在碳达峰、碳中和的时代背景下,探究城市生态基础设施的碳减排效应对实现城市的可持续性发展、现代化发展具有重要的现实意义。选用中国2003-2019年中国214个地级市为样本,采用熵权法量化中国城市生态基础设施发展水平,构建空间计量模型研究城市生态基础设施发展对碳排放量的影响及其空间溢出效应。研究发现：（1）中国城市碳排放总量整体呈上升趋势,并且碳排放量较高的地区是人口密度较大的城市,以及传统工业城市。城市生态基础设施发展水平总体呈先下降,后上升的趋势,发展较好的城市分布在东部沿海地区,西北城市,中部省会与直辖市。（2）城市生态基础设施发展显著促进了本地城市和邻地城市的碳排放量,该结果通过稳健性检验。并且,城市生态基础设施的碳减排效应存在滞后性,城市生态基础设施在发展至12期时,具有显著的碳减排效应。（3）城市第二产业发展具有集聚效应,降低了邻地城市的碳排放量;城市对外开放程度越高,地区间贸易加速流动,促进了邻地城市的碳排放量。（4）与其他城市相比,西部地区城市、非省会城市和直辖市,以及资源型城市的生态基础设施发展显著促进了城市碳排放。（5）政策制定上,一方面应全力推进城市生态基础设施发展和第二产业转型,重视城市绿化覆盖、垃圾废水处理等设施建设。另一方面需特别关注西部地区城市、非直辖市和非省会城市、以及资源型城市,因地制宜,激发其生态基础设施建设动力,助推碳达峰、碳中和目标的实现。     

A view from the bridge: Subjectivity,embodiment and animal minds

Abstract

In contemporary discussions of animal mind the difficulty of studying the nature of private, subjective awareness in animals is often seen as a barrier to a fuller understanding of animal experience. Relatively little work has focused on more recent psychological accounts of mind that emphasize its extended, embodied and social aspects. We examine some of the main conceptual difficulties in this area, and then consider a number of more embodied approaches. We suggest that a consideration of the nature of the animal-human relationship is crucial to a consideration of animal awareness.     

Perception–action loops of multiple agents: informational aspects and the impact of coordination

Embodied agents can be conceived as entities perceiving and acting upon an external environment. Probabilistic models of this perception-action loop have paved the way to the investigation of information-theoretic aspects of embodied cognition. This formalism allows (i) to identify information flows and their limits under various scenarios and constraints, and (ii) to use informational quantities in order to induce the self-organization of the agent's behavior without any externally specified drives. This article extends the perception-action loop formalism to multiple agents. The multiple-access channel model is presented and used to identify the relationships between informational quantities of two agents interacting in the same environment. The central question investigated in this article is the impact of coordination. Information-theoretic limits on what can be achieved with and without coordination are identified. For this purpose, different abstract channels are studied, along with a concrete example of agents interacting in space. It is shown that, under some conditions, self-organizing systems based on information-theoretic quantities have a tendency to spontaneously generate coordinated behavior. Moreover, in the perspective of engineering such systems to achieve specific tasks, these information-theoretic limits put constraints on the amount of coordination that is required to perform the task, and consequently on the mechanisms that underlie self-organization in the system.