Effect of Climate Change on Lyme Disease Risk in North America

An understanding of the influence of climate change on Ixodes scapularis, the main vector of Lyme disease in North America, is a fundamental component in assessing changes in the spatial distribution of human risk for the disease. We used a climate suitability model of I. scapularis to examine the potential effects of global climate change on future Lyme disease risk in North America. A climate-based logistic model was first used to explain the current distribution of I. scapularis in North America. Climate-change scenarios were then applied to extrapolate the model in time and to forecast vector establishment. The spatially modeled relationship between I. scapularis presence and large-scale environmental data generated the current pattern of I. scapularis across North America with an accuracy of 89% (P < 0.0001). Extrapolation of the model revealed a significant expansion of I. scapularis north into Canada with an increase in suitable habitat of 213% by the 2080s. Climate change will also result in a retraction of the vector from the southern U.S. and movement into the central U.S. This report predicts the effect of climate change on Lyme disease risk and specifically forecasts the emergence of a tickborne infectious disease in Canada. Our modeling approach could thus be used to outline where future control strategies and prevention efforts need to be applied.     

全球变化与野生物种:观测和预测

由于人类活动的影响,世界正在变暖。迅速的全球变化很可能对野生物种产生巨大影响,同时伴随着城市化、农垦和造林实践所引起的自然生境的丧失和破坏。观测和预测的气候变化对野生物种的影响着眼于4个方面：生活史的时间、物种分布与种群格局、迁移对策以及重要地点。许多物种可能因气候的变化而灭绝,而气候变化所造成的野生物种分布的变化很可能对人类产生长期久远的影响。     

Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America,under Climate Change

Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector’s climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: “stabilization” and “high increase”. Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela. These areas will only become endemic for L. amazonensis, however, if they have competent reservoir hosts and transmission dynamics matching those in the Amazon region.     

Past Climate Change and Plant Evolution in Western North America: A Case Study in Rosaceae

Species in the ivesioid clade of Potentilla (Rosaceae) are endemic to western North America, an area that underwent widespread aridification during the global temperature decrease following the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum. Several morphological features interpreted as adaptations to drought are found in the clade, and many species occupy extremely dry habitats. Recent phylogenetic analyses have shown that the sister group of this clade is Potentilla section Rivales, a group with distinct moist habitat preferences. This has led to the hypothesis that the ivesioids (genera Ivesia, Horkelia and Horkeliella) diversified in response to the late Tertiary aridification of western North America. We used phyloclimatic modeling and a fossil-calibrated dated phylogeny of the family Rosaceae to investigate the evolution of the ivesioid clade. We have combined occurrence- and climate data from extant species, and used ancestral state reconstruction to model past climate preferences. These models have been projected into paleo-climatic scenarios in order to identify areas where the ivesioids may have occurred. Our analysis suggests a split between the ivesioids and Potentilla sect. Rivales around Late Oligocene/Early Miocene (∼23 million years ago, Ma), and that the ivesioids then diversified at a time when summer drought started to appear in the region. The clade is inferred to have originated on the western slopes of the Rocky Mountains from where a westward range expansion to the Sierra Nevada and the coast of California took place between ∼12-2 Ma. Our results support the idea that climatic changes in southwestern North America have played an important role in the evolution of the local flora, by means of in situ adaptation followed by diversification.     

Current and Future Niche of North and Central American Sand Flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Climate Change Scenarios

Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector''s ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys'' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases.     

Improving the Use of Species Distribution Models in Conservation Planning and Management under Climate Change

Choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios all influence the results of species distribution models under future climatic conditions. However, an overview of applied studies suggests that the uncertainty associated with these factors is not always appropriately incorporated or even considered. We examine the effects of choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios can have on future species distribution models using two endangered species: one a short-lived invertebrate species (Ptunarra Brown Butterfly), and the other a long-lived paleo-endemic tree species (King Billy Pine). We show the range in projected distributions that result from different variable selection, climate models and emissions scenarios. The extent to which results are affected by these choices depends on the characteristics of the species modelled, but they all have the potential to substantially alter conclusions about the impacts of climate change. We discuss implications for conservation planning and management, and provide recommendations to conservation practitioners on variable selection and accommodating uncertainty when using future climate projections in species distribution models.     

Projected Future Distributions of Vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in North America under Climate Change Scenarios

Background

Chagas disease kills approximately 45 thousand people annually and affects 10 million people in Latin America and the southern United States. The parasite that causes the disease, Trypanosoma cruzi, can be transmitted by insects of the family Reduviidae, subfamily Triatominae. Any study that attempts to evaluate risk for Chagas disease must focus on the ecology and biogeography of these vectors. Expected distributional shifts of vector species due to climate change are likely to alter spatial patterns of risk of Chagas disease, presumably through northward expansion of high risk areas in North America.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We forecast the future (2050) distributions in North America of Triatoma gerstaeckeri and T. sanguisuga, two of the most common triatomine species and important vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in the southern United States. Our aim was to analyze how climate change might affect the future shift of Chagas disease in North America using a maximum entropy algorithm to predict changes in suitable habitat based on vector occurrence points and predictive environmental variables. Projections based on three different general circulation models (CCCMA, CSIRO, and HADCM3) and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2) were analyzed. Twenty models were developed for each case and evaluated via cross-validation. The final model averages result from all twenty of these models. All models had AUC >0.90, which indicates that the models are robust. Our results predict a potential northern shift in the distribution of T. gerstaeckeri and a northern and southern distributional shift of T. sanguisuga from its current range due to climate change.

Conclusions/Significance

The results of this study provide baseline information for monitoring the northward shift of potential risk from Chagas disease in the face of climate change.     

Ecological Niche Modelling of Potential West Nile Virus Vector Mosquito Species and Their Geographical Association with Equine Epizootics in Italy

In Italy, West Nile virus (WNV) equine outbreaks have occurred annually since 2008. Characterizing WNV vector habitat requirements allows for the identification of areas at risk of viral amplification and transmission. Maxent-based ecological niche models were developed using literature records of 13 potential WNV Italian vector mosquito species to predict their habitat suitability range and to investigate possible geographical associations with WNV equine outbreak occurrence in Italy from 2008 to 2010. The contribution of different environmental variables to the niche models was also assessed. Suitable habitats for Culex pipiens, Aedes albopictus, and Anopheles maculipennis were widely distributed; Culex modestus, Ochlerotatus geniculatus, Ochlerotatus caspius, Coquillettidia richiardii, Aedes vexans, and Anopheles plumbeus were concentrated in north-central Italy; Aedes cinereus, Culex theileri, Ochlerotatus dorsalis, and Culiseta longiareolata were restricted to coastal/southern areas. Elevation, temperature, and precipitation variables showed the highest predictive power. Host population and landscape variables provided minor contributions. WNV equine outbreaks had a significantly higher probability to occur in habitats suitable for Cx. modestus and Cx. pipiens, providing circumstantial evidence that the potential distribution of these two species coincides geographically with the observed distribution of the disease in equines.     

Climate Change Estimates Surpass Rates of Climatic Niche Evolution in Primates

International Journal of Primatology - Primates might be particularly vulnerable to experiencing adverse effects from climate change, given their level of exposure, sensitivity to climatic...     

Hydrologic Alterations from Climate Change Inform Assessment of Ecological Risk to Pacific Salmon in Bristol Bay,Alaska

We developed an integrated hydrologic model of the upper Nushagak and Kvichak watersheds in the Bristol Bay region of southwestern Alaska, a region under substantial development pressure from large-scale copper mining. We incorporated climate change scenarios into this model to evaluate how hydrologic regimes and stream temperatures might change in a future climate, and to summarize indicators of hydrologic alteration that are relevant to salmon habitat ecology and life history. Model simulations project substantial changes in mean winter flow, peak flow dates, and water temperature by 2100. In particular, we find that annual hydrographs will no longer be dominated by a single spring thaw event, but will instead be characterized by numerous high flow events throughout the winter. Stream temperatures increase in all future scenarios, although these temperature increases are moderated relative to air temperatures by cool baseflow inputs during the summer months. Projected changes to flow and stream temperature could influence salmon through alterations in the suitability of spawning gravels, changes in the duration of incubation, increased growth during juvenile stages, and increased exposure to chronic and acute temperature stress. These climate-modulated changes represent a shifting baseline in salmon habitat quality and quantity in the future, and an important consideration to adequately assess the types and magnitude of risks associated with proposed large-scale mining in the region.     

Distribution of Xiphinema americanum and Related Species in North America

All species of the Xiphinema americanum-group and their synonyms are listed. The North American species reported are listed by state or province. Among these species, X. rivesi has the most widely reported distribution. Six species (X. diffusum, X. floridae, X. laevistriatum, X. luci, X. shell, and X. tarjanense) have been reported from only Florida. The reports of X. pachtaicum, X. sheri, and X. luci did not include morphometrics and need to be confirmed; X. brevicolle from California was identified before Lamberti and Bleve-Zacheo described 15 new species in 1979 and similarly needs to be confirmed. Because of the proliferation of species in this group, reports of X. americanum (sensu stricto) before 1979 are questionable. Extraction techniques for longidorids are discussed.     

Using Ecological Niche Models and Niche Analyses to Understand Speciation Patterns: The Case of Sister Neotropical Orchid Bees

The role of past connections between the two major South American forested biomes on current species distribution has been recognized a long time ago. Climatic oscillations that further separated these biomes have promoted parapatric speciation, in which many species had their continuous distribution split, giving rise to different but related species (i.e., different potential distributions and realized niche features). The distribution of many sister species of orchid bees follow this pattern. Here, using ecological niche models and niche analyses, we (1) tested the role of ecological niche differentiation on the divergence between sister orchid-bees (genera Eulaema and Eufriesea) from the Amazon and Atlantic forests, and (2) highlighted interesting areas for new surveys. Amazonian species occupied different realized niches than their Atlantic sister species. Conversely, species of sympatric but distantly related Eulaema bees occupied similar realized niches. Amazonian species had a wide potential distribution in South America, whereas Atlantic Forest species were more limited to the eastern coast of the continent. Additionally, we identified several areas in need of future surveys. Our results show that the realized niche of Atlantic-Amazonian sister species of orchid bees, which have been previously treated as allopatric populations of three species, had limited niche overlap and similarity. These findings agree with their current taxonomy, which treats each of those populations as distinct valid species.     

Climate change decreases the cooling effect from postfire albedo in boreal North America

Fire is a primary disturbance in boreal forests and generates both positive and negative climate forcings. The influence of fire on surface albedo is a predominantly negative forcing in boreal forests, and one of the strongest overall, due to increased snow exposure in the winter and spring months. Albedo forcings are spatially and temporally heterogeneous and depend on a variety of factors related to soils, topography, climate, land cover/vegetation type, successional dynamics, time since fire, season, and fire severity. However, how these variables interact to influence albedo is not well understood, and quantifying these relationships and predicting postfire albedo becomes increasingly important as the climate changes and management frameworks evolve to consider climate impacts. Here we developed a MODIS‐derived ‘blue sky’ albedo product and a novel machine learning modeling framework to predict fire‐driven changes in albedo under historical and future climate scenarios across boreal North America. Converted to radiative forcing (RF), we estimated that fires generate an annual mean cooling of ?1.77 ± 1.35 W/m² from albedo under historical climate conditions (1971–2000) integrated over 70 years postfire. Increasing postfire albedo along a south–north climatic gradient was offset by a nearly opposite gradient in solar insolation, such that large‐scale spatial patterns in RF were minimal. Our models suggest that climate change will lead to decreases in mean annual postfire albedo, and hence a decreasing strength of the negative RF, a trend dominated by decreased snow cover in spring months. Considering the range of future climate scenarios and model uncertainties, we estimate that for fires burning in the current era (2016) the cooling effect from long‐term postfire albedo will be reduced by 15%–28% due to climate change.     

Niche conservatism among non‐native vertebrates in Europe and North America

Niche conservatism, the hypothesis that niches remain constant through time and space, is crucial for the study of biological invasions as it underlies native‐range based predictions of invasion risk. Niche changes between native and non‐native populations are increasingly reported. However, it has been argued that these changes arise mainly because in their novel range, species occupy only a subset of the environments they inhabit in their native range, and not because they expand into environments entirely novel to them. Here, using occurrences of 29 vertebrate species native to either Europe or North America and introduced into the other continent, we assess the prevalence of niche changes between native and non‐native populations and assess whether the changes detected are caused primarily by native niche unfilling in the non‐native range rather than by expansion into novel environments. We show that niche overlap between native and non‐native populations is generally low because of a large degree of niche unfilling in the non‐native range. This most probably reflects an ongoing colonization of the novel range, as niche changes were smaller for species that were introduced longer ago and into a larger number of locations. Niche expansion was rare, and for the few species exhibiting larger amounts of niche overlap, an unfilling of the niche in the native range (e.g. through competition or dispersal limitations) is the most probable explanation. The fact that for most species, the realized non‐native niche is a subset of the realized native niche allows native‐range based niche models to generate accurate predictions of invasion risk. These results suggest that niche changes arising during biological invasions are strongly influenced by propagule pressure and colonization processes, and we argue that introduction history should be taken into account when evaluating niche conservatism in the context of biological invasions.     

Holocene Man in North America: The Ecological Setting and Climatic Background

Abstract

Patterns of human occupation and vegetation are delineated on maps of North America for one thousand year intervals through the Holocene. The raw data for this review include radiocarbon-dated pollen cores and archaeological information and treering records. Dynamic changes in the Laurentide Ice limits and major ecotones are observed through the middle Holocene, when both features reach essentially post-glacial stability. Significant changes in the vegetation boundaries continue to the present, but the scale of change is much diminished.

Early Holocene occupation apparently expanded from Alaska south to California, then east, parallel to the southern boundary of the grasslands, to the Mississippi River and northeastward to the east coast. The absence of occpuation in late-Atlantic time is noted through much of the Great Plains and continued until about 4,000 BP. Within the next millennium, evidence of human occupation virtually covered the United States (except for the northwest) and much of coastal Canada.

Environmental conditions and occupation over North America are reviewed within the framework of Holocene climatic episodes.     

Ecological Niche Models using MaxEnt in Google Earth Engine: Evaluation,guidelines and recommendations

Google Earth Engine (GEE) has revolutionized geospatial analyses by fast-processing formerly demanding analyses from multiple research areas. Recently, maximum entropy (MaxEnt), the most commonly used method in ecological niche models (ENMs), was integrated into GEE. This integration can significantly enhance modeling efficiency and encourage multidisciplinary approaches of ENMs, but an evaluation assessment of MaxEnt in GEE is lacking. Herein, we present the first MaxEnt models in GEE, as well as its first statistical and spatial evaluation. We also identify the limitations of the approach, providing guidelines and recommendations for its easier applicability in GEE.We tested MaxEnt in GEE using 11 case studies. For each case, we used species of different taxa (insects, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals) distributed across global and regional extents. Each species occupied habitats with distinct environmental characteristics (nine terrestrial and two marine species) and within divergent ecoregions across five continents. The models were performed in GEE and Maxent software, and both approaches were contrasted for their model discrimination performance (assessed by eight evaluation metrics) and spatial consistency (correlation analyses and two measures of niche overlap/equivalency).MaxEnt in GEE allows setting several parameters, but important analyses and outputs are unavailable, such as automatic selection of background data, model replicates, and analyses of variable importance (concretely, jackknife analyses and response curves). GEE provided MaxEnt models with high discrimination performance (area under the curve mean between all species models of 0.90) and with spatial equivalency in relation to Maxent software outputs (Hellinger's I mean between all species models >0.90).Our work demonstrates the first application and assessment of MaxEnt in GEE at global and regional scales. We conclude that the GEE modeling method provides ENMs with high performance and reliable spatial predictions, comparable to the widely used Maxent software. We also acknowledge important limitations that should be integrated into GEE in the future, particularly those related to the assessment of variable importance. We expect that our guidelines, recommendations and potential solutions to surpass the identified limitations could help researchers easily apply MaxEnt in GEE across different research fields.     

Ecological Aspects of Equestrian Adaptations in Aboriginal North America

Considerable attention has been given by anthropologists, including ethnohistorians, to the impact of domesticated horse use on aboriginal societies in western North America. The spatial and temporal distribution of horses, as well as variation in herd size, has traditionally been explained within a cultural diffusionist or historical particularist paradigm. It is argued here that not only has such an approach failed to account for the distribution and abundance of horses, but it also has proven to be an unproductive research strategy. An ecologically based explanatory model is presented that accounts for 65% of the observed variability in aboriginal horse herd size(s). An explanation of variability in horse numbers and horse-to-person ratios is essential if anthropologists seek to better understand equestrian adaptations. [equestrian adaptations, horse ecology, Plains-Basin-Plateau ethnology]     

气候变化对杉木适生区和生态位的影响

杉木（Cunninghamia lanceolata）是我国主要的造林树种之一,具有重要的药用、经济和生态服务功能。在全球变暖趋势持续的背景下,气候成为制约物种生存和发展的重要因素,其中空间分布和生态位变化对生态过程的解释至关重要。基于211个杉木分布点和20个环境变量,利用MaxEnt模型和R语言的ecospat软件包对杉木适生区和生态位的变化进行研究,分析杉木对未来气候持续变暖的响应。结果表明杉木当前潜在适生区219.67万km²,约占国土总面积的22.88％,主要分布在我国800 mm等降水量线以东的地区,年均温、昼夜温差日均值和最干月降雨量是影响杉木分布的最主要环境变量。未来杉木适生区分布将沿着经纬度方向迁移,高度和低度适生区面积均不断减少。主成分分析（PCA）表明杉木气候生态位在不同时段不同代表性浓度路径下发生转移和扩展,气候生态位中心将向年均温和最暖季降雨量移动。生态位重叠指数均呈现不断下降的趋势,且RCP8.5情景下的生态位重叠率下降最为明显。结果表明全球气候变暖会改变物种的空间分布区域,并将对现存的生态系统产生不同程度的影响。杉木与气候变化关系的研究拓展了人们对气候变化与植物物种生态特征的认识,为杉木乃至乔木树种的保护和利用提供了理论依据。