Species loss and secondary extinctions in simple and complex model communities

1. The loss of a species from an ecological community can trigger a cascade of secondary extinctions. Here we investigate how the complexity (connectance) of model communities affects their response to species loss. Using dynamic analysis based on a global criterion of persistence (permanence) and topological analysis we investigate the extent of secondary extinctions following the loss of different kinds of species. 2. We show that complex communities are, on average, more resistant to species loss than simple communities: the number of secondary extinctions decreases with increasing connectance. However, complex communities are more vulnerable to loss of top predators than simple communities. 3. The loss of highly connected species (species with many links to other species) and species at low trophic levels triggers, on average, the largest number of secondary extinctions. The effect of the connectivity of a species is strongest in webs with low connectance. 4. Most secondary extinctions are due to direct bottom-up effects: consumers go extinct when their resources are lost. Secondary extinctions due to trophic cascades and disruption of predator-mediated coexistence also occur. Secondary extinctions due to disruption of predator-mediated coexistence are more common in complex communities than in simple communities, while bottom-up and top-down extinction cascades are more common in simple communities. 5. Topological analysis of the response of communities to species loss always predicts a lower number of secondary extinctions than dynamic analysis, especially in food webs with high connectance.     

Global versus local extinction in a network model of plant–pollinator communities

The loss of a species from an ecological community can trigger a cascade of additional extinctions; the complex interactions that comprise ecological communities make the dynamics and impacts of such a cascade challenging to predict. Previous studies have typically considered global extinctions, where a species cannot re-enter a community once it is lost. However, in some cases a species only becomes locally extinct, and may be able to reinvade from surrounding communities. Here, we use a dynamic, Boolean network model of plant–pollinator community assembly to analyze the differences between global and local extinction events in mutualistic communities. As expected, we find that compared to global extinctions, communities respond to local extinctions with lower biodiversity loss, and less variation in topological network properties. We demonstrate that in the face of global extinctions, larger communities suffer greater biodiversity loss than smaller communities when similar proportions of species are lost. Conversely, smaller communities suffer greater loss in the face of local extinctions. We show that targeting species with the most interacting partners causes more biodiversity loss than random extinctions in the case of global, but not local, extinctions. These results extend our understanding of how mutualistic communities respond to species loss, with implications for community management and conservation efforts.     

Keystone species and vulnerable species in ecological communities: strong or weak interactors?

The loss of a species from an ecological community can trigger a cascade of secondary extinctions. The probability of secondary extinction to take place and the number of secondary extinctions are likely to depend on the characteristics of the species that is lost--the strength of its interactions with other species--as well as on the distribution of interaction strengths in the whole community. Analysing the effects of species loss in model communities we found that removal of the following species categories triggered, on average, the largest number of secondary extinctions: (a) rare species interacting strongly with many consumers, (b) abundant basal species interacting weakly with their consumers and (c) abundant intermediate species interacting strongly with many resources. We also found that the keystone status of a species with given characteristics was context dependent, that is, dependent on the structure of the community where it was embedded. Species vulnerable to secondary extinctions were mainly species interacting weakly with their resources and species interacting strongly with their consumers.     

Early onset of secondary extinctions in ecological communities following the loss of top predators

The large vulnerability of top predators to human-induced disturbances on ecosystems is a matter of growing concern. Because top predators often exert strong influence on their prey populations their extinction can have far-reaching consequences for the structure and functioning of ecosystems. It has, for example, been observed that the local loss of a predator can trigger a cascade of secondary extinctions. However, the time lags involved in such secondary extinctions remain unexplored. Here we show that the loss of a top predator leads to a significantly earlier onset of secondary extinctions in model communities than does the loss of a species from other trophic levels. Moreover, in most cases time to secondary extinction increases with increasing species richness. If local secondary extinctions occur early they are less likely to be balanced by immigration of species from local communities nearby. The implications of these results for community persistence and conservation priorities are discussed.     

Phylogenetic algorithms and the evolution of species communities in forest fragments

In forest fragmentation studies, low specific richness in small fragments and community nestedness are usually considered to result from species loss. However, except in the case of fragmentation experiments, these studies cannot distinguish between original low richness and secondary species loss, or between original high richness and secondary colonizations in fragments. To distinguish between these possibilities is a matter of historical inference for which phylogenetic algorithms are designed. The methods of phylogenetic analysis, and especially parsimony analysis, can be used to find a tree of relationships between communities from different forest fragments, taking the presence or absence of species among different communities as characters. Parsimony analysis searches if species subsets can be classified in a nested hierarchy, and also establishes how the communities evolved, polarizing species changes into either extinctions or colonizations. By re‐analyzing two classical studies in this new and powerful way, we demonstrate that the differences between fragments and large continuous forests cannot be attributed to species loss in all cases, contrary to expectations from models. © The Willi Hennig Society 2005.     

Ecological communities are vulnerable to realistic extinction sequences

Loss of species will directly change the structure and potentially the dynamics of ecological communities, which in turn may lead to additional species loss (secondary extinctions) due to direct and/or indirect effects (e.g. loss of resources or altered population dynamics). Furthermore, the vulnerability of food webs to repeated species loss is expected to be affected by food web topology, species interactions, as well as the order in which species go extinct. Species traits such as body size, abundance and connectivity might determine a species’ vulnerability to extinction and, thus, the order in which species go primarily extinct. Yet, the sequence of primary extinctions, and their effects on the vulnerability of food webs to secondary extinctions, when species abundances are allowed to respond dynamically, has only recently become the focus of attention. Here, we analyse and compare topological and dynamical robustness to secondary extinctions of model food webs, in the face of 34 extinction sequences based on species traits. Although secondary extinctions are frequent in the dynamical approach and rare in the topological approach, topological and dynamical robustness tends to be correlated for many bottom–up directed, but not for top–down directed deletion sequences. Furthermore, removing species based on traits that are strongly positively correlated to the trophic position of species (such as large body size, low abundance, high net effect) is, under the dynamical approach, found to be as destructive as removing primary producers. Such top–down oriented removal of species are often considered to correspond to realistic extinction scenarios, but earlier studies, based on topological approaches, have found such extinction sequences to have only moderate effects on the remaining community. Thus, our result suggests that the structure of ecological communities, and therefore the integrity of important ecosystem processes could be more vulnerable to realistic extinction sequences than previously believed.     

Biodiversity and persistence of ecological communities in variable environments

Recent analyses of climate data indicate that the intensity and frequency of different weather extremes have increased. Such increased environmental variability may lead to increased species extinction rates and hence have important consequences for the long-term persistence of ecological communities. Here we use model communities in order to investigate the relationship between species richness and community persistence in a fluctuating environment. We model two scenarios: (1) correlated species responses to environmental fluctuations and (2) uncorrelated (independent) species responses. We quantify the risk and extent of species extinctions using the so-called community viability analysis. It is shown that species-rich communities are more sensitive to environmental stochasticity than species-poor communities. Specifically, per species risk of extinction is higher in species-rich communities than in species-poor ones. Moreover, for a given species richness, communities with uncorrelated species responses to environmental variation run a considerable higher risk of losing a fixed proportion of species compared with communities with correlated species responses. We discuss the compatibility of these results with the ecological insurance hypothesis.     

Loss of predator species,not intermediate consumers,triggers rapid and dramatic extinction cascades

Ecological networks are tightly interconnected, such that loss of a single species can trigger additional species extinctions. Theory predicts that such secondary extinctions are driven primarily by loss of species from intermediate or basal trophic levels. In contrast, most cases of secondary extinctions from natural systems have been attributed to loss of entire top trophic levels. Here, we show that loss of single predator species in isolation can, irrespective of their identity or the presence of other predators, trigger rapid secondary extinction cascades in natural communities far exceeding those generally predicted by theory. In contrast, we did not find any secondary extinctions caused by intermediate consumer loss. A food web model of our experimental system—a marine rocky shore community—could reproduce these results only when biologically likely and plausible nontrophic interactions, based on competition for space and predator‐avoidance behaviour, were included. These findings call for a reassessment of the scale and nature of extinction cascades, particularly the inclusion of nontrophic interactions, in forecasts of the future of biodiversity.     

Predicting the effect of competition on secondary plant extinctions in plant–pollinator networks

What are the limitations of models that predict the behavior of an ecological community based on a single type of species interaction? Using plant–pollinator network models as an example, we contrast the predicted vulnerability of a community to secondary extinctions under the assumption of purely mutualistic interactions versus mutualistic and competitive interactions. We find that competition among plant species increases the risk of secondary extinctions and extinction cascades. Simulations over a number of different network structures indicate that this effect is stronger in larger networks, more strongly connected networks and networks with higher plant:pollinator ratios. We conclude that efforts to model plant–pollinator communities will systematically over‐estimate community robustness to species loss if plant competition is ignored. However, because the effect of plant competition depends on network architecture, and because characterization of plant competition is work intensive, we suggest that efforts to account for plant competition in plant–pollinator network models should be focused on large, strongly connected networks with high plant:pollinator ratios.     

Trophically unique species are vulnerable to cascading extinction

Understanding which species might become extinct and the consequences of such loss is critical. One consequence is a cascade of further, secondary extinctions. While a significant amount is known about the types of communities and species that suffer secondary extinctions, little is known about the consequences of secondary extinctions for biodiversity. Here we examine the effect of these secondary extinctions on trophic diversity, the range of trophic roles played by the species in a community. Our analyses of natural and model food webs show that secondary extinctions cause loss of trophic diversity greater than that expected from chance, a result that is robust to variation in food web structure, distribution of interactions strengths, functional response, and adaptive foraging. Greater than expected loss of trophic diversity occurs because more trophically unique species are more vulnerable to secondary extinction. This is not a straightforward consequence of these species having few links with others but is a complex function of how direct and indirect interactions affect species persistence. A positive correlation between a species' extinction probability and the importance of its loss defines high-risk species and should make their conservation a priority.     

Context-dependent effects of predator removal from experimental microcosm communities

The loss of a predator from an ecological community can cause large changes in community structure and ecosystem processes, or have very little consequence for the remaining species and ecosystem. Understanding when and why the loss of a predator causes large changes in community structure and ecosystem processes is critical for understanding the functional consequences of biodiversity loss. We used experimental microbial communities to investigate how the removal of a large generalist predator affected the extinction frequency, population abundance and total biomass of its prey. We removed this predator in the presence or absence of an alternative, more specialist, predator in order to determine whether the specialist predator affected the outcome of the initial species removal. Removal of the large generalist predator altered some species' populations but many were unaffected and no secondary extinctions were observed. The specialist predator, though rare, altered the response of the prey community to the removal of the large generalist predator. In the absence of the specialist predator, the effects of the removal were only measurable at the level of individual species. However, when the specialist predator was present, the removal of the large generalist predator affected the total biomass of prey species. The results demonstrate that the effect of species loss from high trophic levels may be very context-dependent, as rare species can have disproportionately large effects in food webs.     

Species loss leads to community closure

Global extinction of a species is sadly irreversible. At a local scale, however, extinctions may be followed by re-invasion. We here show that this is not necessarily the case and that an ecological community may close its doors for re-invasion of species lost from it. Previous studies of how communities are assembled have shown that there may be rules for that process and that limitations are set to the order by which species are introduced and put together. Instead of focusing on the assembly process we randomly generated simple competitive model communities that were stable and allowed for two to 10 coexisting species. When a randomly selected single species was removed from the community, the cascading species loss was recorded and frequently the resulting community was more than halved. Cascading extinctions have previously been recorded, but we here show that the relative magnitude of the cascade is dependent on community size (and not only trophic structure) and that the reintroduction of the original species lost often is impossible. Hence, species loss does not simply leave a void potentially refilled, but permanently alters the entire community structure and consequently the adaptive landscape for potential re-invaders.     

Predicting the consequences of species loss using size‐structured biodiversity approaches

Understanding the consequences of species loss in complex ecological communities is one of the great challenges in current biodiversity research. For a long time, this topic has been addressed by traditional biodiversity experiments. Most of these approaches treat species as trait‐free, taxonomic units characterizing communities only by species number without accounting for species traits. However, extinctions do not occur at random as there is a clear correlation between extinction risk and species traits. In this review, we assume that large species will be most threatened by extinction and use novel allometric and size‐spectrum concepts that include body mass as a primary species trait at the levels of populations and individuals, respectively, to re‐assess three classic debates on the relationships between biodiversity and (i) food‐web structural complexity, (ii) community dynamic stability, and (iii) ecosystem functioning. Contrasting current expectations, size‐structured approaches suggest that the loss of large species, that typically exploit most resource species, may lead to future food webs that are less interwoven and more structured by chains of interactions and compartments. The disruption of natural body‐mass distributions maintaining food‐web stability may trigger avalanches of secondary extinctions and strong trophic cascades with expected knock‐on effects on the functionality of the ecosystems. Therefore, we argue that it is crucial to take into account body size as a species trait when analysing the consequences of biodiversity loss for natural ecosystems. Applying size‐structured approaches provides an integrative ecological concept that enables a better understanding of each species' unique role across communities and the causes and consequences of biodiversity loss.     

Mild cycles open closed communities to ecological restoration

Species loss is a global issue. With up to a million species at risk and insufficient protected area to maintain the world's biodiversity, humanity will increasingly need to rely on species re‐introductions to locally restore diversity and function. However, such restoration attempts are bound to fail when ecological communities get locked in a closed state that is resistant to recovery. It is presently unknown how to repair these closed systems. We use mathematical models to identify ways out of this problem. We first show how ecological communities may enter a closed state, to then explain how to open them up again for restoration of their original diversity. We find that restoration is often still possible shortly after initial species loss, as (1) the secondary extinctions that produce closure have not happened yet and (2) mild population fluctuations still allow successful repair during a transient postdisturbance phase. However, after this typically short window of opportunity for restoration, the system enters a new equilibrium, which may be a closed state. Our analysis shows how to take ecological communities out of the closed state: Appropriate management of carrying capacities produces a regime of mild population fluctuations that opens a window for successful species re‐introductions. These windows can be perpetually recurring or permanently open. Such opportunities for repair can be absent under regimes of wild cycles or perfect stability. We conclude that mild cycles may open windows of opportunity for the repair of communities that have become resistant to recovery.     

Parasites reduce food web robustness because they are sensitive to secondary extinction as illustrated by an invasive estuarine snail

A robust food web is one in which few secondary extinctions occur after removing species. We investigated how parasites affected the robustness of the Carpinteria Salt Marsh food web by conducting random species removals and a hypothetical, but plausible, species invasion. Parasites were much more likely than free-living species to suffer secondary extinctions following the removal of a free-living species from the food web. For this reason, the food web was less robust with the inclusion of parasites. Removal of the horn snail, Cerithidea californica, resulted in a disproportionate number of secondary parasite extinctions. The exotic Japanese mud snail, Batillaria attramentaria, is the ecological analogue of the native California horn snail and can completely replace it following invasion. Owing to the similarities between the two snail species, the invasion had no effect on predator–prey interactions. However, because the native snail is host for 17 host-specific parasites, and the invader is host to only one, comparison of a food web that includes parasites showed significant effects of invasion on the native community. The hypothetical invasion also significantly reduced the connectance of the web because the loss of 17 native trematode species eliminated many links.     

The loss of indirect interactions leads to cascading extinctions of carnivores

Species extinctions are biased towards higher trophic levels, and primary extinctions are often followed by unexpected secondary extinctions. Currently, predictions on the vulnerability of ecological communities to extinction cascades are based on models that focus on bottom‐up effects, which cannot capture the effects of extinctions at higher trophic levels. We show, in experimental insect communities, that harvesting of single carnivorous parasitoid species led to a significant increase in extinction rate of other parasitoid species, separated by four trophic links. Harvesting resulted in the release of prey from top‐down control, leading to increased interspecific competition at the herbivore trophic level. This resulted in increased extinction rates of non‐harvested parasitoid species when their host had become rare relative to other herbivores. The results demonstrate a mechanism for horizontal extinction cascades, and illustrate that altering the relationship between a predator and its prey can cause wide‐ranging ripple effects through ecosystems, including unexpected extinctions.     

The form of direct interspecific competition modifies secondary extinction patterns in multi‐trophic food webs

Forcibly removing species from ecosystems has important consequences for the remaining assemblage, leading to changes in community structure, ecosystem functioning and secondary (cascading) extinctions. One key question that has arisen from single‐ and multi‐trophic ecosystem models is whether the secondary extinctions that occur within competitive communities (guilds) are also important in multi‐trophic ecosystems? The loss of consumer–resource links obviously causes secondary extinction of specialist consumers (topological extinctions), but the importance of secondary extinctions in multi‐trophic food webs driven by direct competitive exclusion remains unknown. Here I disentangle the effects of extinctions driven by basal competitive exclusion from those caused by trophic interactions in a multi‐trophic ecosystem (basal producers, intermediate and top consumers). I compared food webs where basal species either show diffuse (all species compete with each other identically: no within guild extinctions following primary extinction) or asymmetric competition (unequal interspecific competition: within guild extinctions are possible). Basal competitive exclusion drives extra extinction cascades across all trophic levels, with the effect amplified in larger ecosystems, though varying connectance has little impact on results. Secondary extinction patterns based on the relative abundance of the species lost in the primary extinction differ qualitatively between diffuse and asymmetric competition. Removing asymmetric basal species with low (high) abundance triggers fewer (more) secondary extinctions throughout the whole food web than removing diffuse basal species. Rare asymmetric competitors experience less pressure from consumers compared to rare diffuse competitors. Simulations revealed that diffuse basal species are never involved in extinction cascades, regardless of the trophic level of a primary extinction, while asymmetric competitors were. This work highlights important qualitative differences in extinction patterns that arise when different assumptions are made about the form of direct competition in multi‐trophic food webs.     

Human Perceptions of Megafaunal Extinction Events Revealed by Linguistic Analysis of Indigenous Oral Traditions

Human settlement into new regions is typically accompanied by waves of animal extinctions, yet we have limited understanding of how human communities perceived and responded to such ecological crises. The first megafaunal extinctions in New Zealand began just 700 years ago, in contrast to the deep time of continental extinctions. Consequently, indigenous Māori oral tradition includes ancestral sayings that explicitly refer to extinct species. Our linguistic analysis of these sayings shows a strong bias towards critical food species such as moa, and emphasizes that Māori closely observed the fauna and environment. Temporal changes in form and content demonstrate that Māori recognized the loss of important animal resources, and that this loss reverberated culturally centuries later. The data provide evidence that extinction of keystone fauna was important for shaping ecological and social thought in Māori society, and suggest a similar role in other early societies that lived through megafaunal extinction events.     

Estimating co-extinction threats in terrestrial ecosystems

The biosphere is changing rapidly due to human endeavour. Because ecological communities underlie networks of interacting species, changes that directly affect some species can have indirect effects on others. Accurate tools to predict these direct and indirect effects are therefore required to guide conservation strategies. However, most extinction-risk studies only consider the direct effects of global change—such as predicting which species will breach their thermal limits under different warming scenarios—with predictions of trophic cascades and co-extinction risks remaining mostly speculative. To predict the potential indirect effects of primary extinctions, data describing community interactions and network modelling can estimate how extinctions cascade through communities. While theoretical studies have demonstrated the usefulness of models in predicting how communities react to threats like climate change, few have applied such methods to real-world communities. This gap partly reflects challenges in constructing trophic network models of real-world food webs, highlighting the need to develop approaches for quantifying co-extinction risk more accurately. We propose a framework for constructing ecological network models representing real-world food webs in terrestrial ecosystems and subjecting these models to co-extinction scenarios triggered by probable future environmental perturbations. Adopting our framework will improve estimates of how environmental perturbations affect whole ecological communities. Identifying species at risk of co-extinction (or those that might trigger co-extinctions) will also guide conservation interventions aiming to reduce the probability of co-extinction cascades and additional species losses.     

Cascading extinctions and community collapse in model food webs

Species loss in ecosystems can lead to secondary extinctions as a result of consumer–resource relationships and other species interactions. We compare levels of secondary extinctions in communities generated by four structural food-web models and a fifth null model in response to sequential primary species removals. We focus on various aspects of food-web structural integrity including robustness, community collapse and threshold periods, and how these features relate to assumptions underlying different models, different species loss sequences and simple measures of diversity and complexity. Hierarchical feeding, a fundamental characteristic of food-web structure, appears to impose a cost in terms of robustness and other aspects of structural integrity. However, exponential-type link distributions, also characteristic of more realistic models, generally confer greater structural robustness than the less skewed link distributions of less realistic models. In most cases for the more realistic models, increased robustness and decreased levels of web collapse are associated with increased diversity, measured as species richness S, and increased complexity, measured as connectance C. These and other results, including a surprising sensitivity of more realistic model food webs to loss of species with few links to other species, are compared with prior work based on empirical food-web data.