Using Fault Tree Analysis to Assess Bioterrorist Risks to the U.S. Food Supply

Concerns about terrorist use of biological agents have increased at state and federal levels and in the popular press. Vulnerability of U.S. agricultural assets to bioterrorism has received less attention. A bioterrorist could use the U.S. food supply system to deliver a bioagent to a human target or use a bioagent to destroy it's inputs or infrastructure. Establishing effective agriculture security programs requires condensing generalizations about such bioterrorist threats into specific attack scenarios. This paper suggests a two-stage process to achieve this: problem formulation to define and rank scenarios, then quantitative risk assessment of selected, more highly ranked, scenarios. The quantitative component is illustrated for two specific scenarios: the actual 1984 Rajneeshee incident in Oregon and a hypothetical release of oral anthrax into the food supply system. The fault tree analysis of these scenarios suggests that the food supply system may be a less than optimal bioagent delivery mechanism, particularly if the objective is a mass casualty attack, as a number of events must occur simultaneously with reasonable probability if a bioagent is likely to be deployed effectively. In addition, an environmentally stable bioagent would be required if only the food system were used to deliver it to human consumers, but early detection of an intentional release common bioagent may be difficult absent specific intelligence or “unusual” epidemiological circumstances.     

U.S. Federal Initiatives to Support Biomass Research and Development

This article provides a brief overview of federal initiatives in the United States to support biomass research, demonstration, and development. The interest in the biomass industry and U.S. federal efforts to spur development of, increased production of, and use of biopower, biofuels, and biobased products, collectively known as the "biomass industry", are discussed. A growing level of leadership from the executive branch of the federal government and support by the U.S. Congress are documented. Five important policy drivers that support this heightened emphasis on biomass for power, fuels, and products are identified and discussed. The current status of U.S. dependence on these renewable energy sources is briefly outlined. Federal biomass funding activity for the current fiscal year by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the U.S. Department of Energy, two major federal participants in research, demonstration, and development for this industry, is briefly outlined. This funding commitment is placed into an overall context of total federal support for all research and development. Finally, the article suggests future market penetration targets for this industry, emphasizes the importance of infrastructure development necessary to support the industry's growth, and notes the payoff from such development for farmers, foresters, rural communities, and the environment.     

Simulating the Distribution of Individual Livestock Farms and Their Populations in the United States: An Example Using Domestic Swine (Sus scrofa domesticus) Farms

Livestock distribution in the United States (U.S.) can only be mapped at a county-level or worse resolution. We developed a spatial microsimulation model called the Farm Location and Agricultural Production Simulator (FLAPS) that simulated the distribution and populations of individual livestock farms throughout the conterminous U.S. Using domestic pigs (Sus scrofa domesticus) as an example species, we customized iterative proportional-fitting algorithms for the hierarchical structure of the U.S. Census of Agriculture and imputed unpublished state- or county-level livestock population totals that were redacted to ensure confidentiality. We used a weighted sampling design to collect data on the presence and absence of farms and used them to develop a national-scale distribution model that predicted the distribution of individual farms at a 100 m resolution. We implemented microsimulation algorithms that simulated the populations and locations of individual farms using output from our imputed Census of Agriculture dataset and distribution model. Approximately 19% of county-level pig population totals were unpublished in the 2012 Census of Agriculture and needed to be imputed. Using aerial photography, we confirmed the presence or absence of livestock farms at 10,238 locations and found livestock farms were correlated with open areas, cropland, and roads, and also areas with cooler temperatures and gentler topography. The distribution of swine farms was highly variable, but cross-validation of our distribution model produced an area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve value of 0.78, which indicated good predictive performance. Verification analyses showed FLAPS accurately imputed and simulated Census of Agriculture data based on absolute percent difference values of < 0.01% at the state-to-national scale, 3.26% for the county-to-state scale, and 0.03% for the individual farm-to-county scale. Our output data have many applications for risk management of agricultural systems including epidemiological studies, food safety, biosecurity issues, emergency-response planning, and conflicts between livestock and other natural resources.     

The Origin of the USDA Regional Biomass Research Centers

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Regional Biomass Research Centers (RBRC) were created to contribute to the planning, research, and development of entire long-term sustainable biofuel production supply chains based on agricultural and forest-based feedstocks. The intent of the centers is to provide a catalyst that links feedstock genetic development, sustainable production and management, logistics, conversion, co-product production, distribution, and market demand suited to the available economic, social, and natural resources within different regions. The centers provide a coordinated, region-based research focus designed with relatively short-term deliverables to help accelerate the commercial production of biomass and other biofuel feedstocks. The centers provide a leadership structure for coordinating biomass research across the country, providing a national perspective that complements other USDA agency efforts designed to help US rural communities participate in the emerging biofuels and biobased products economy. Through coordination with the RBRC, USDA research and service agency programs and resources have been leveraged with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and other federal department, university, and private industry efforts to help accelerate commercial advancement of advanced biofuel production to promote rural economic opportunities and achieve transportation biofuel policy goals.     

Greenhouse Gas Emission Estimates of U.S. Dietary Choices and Food Loss

Dietary behavioral choices have a strong effect on the environmental impact associated with the food system. Here, we consider the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with production of food that is lost at the retail and consumer level, as well as the potential effects on GHG emissions of a shift to dietary recommendations. Calculations are based on the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) food availability data set and literature meta‐analysis of emission factors for various food types. Food losses contribute 1.4 kilograms (kg) carbon dioxide equivalents (CO₂‐eq) capita^?1day^?1 (28%) to the overall carbon footprint of the average U.S. diet; in total, this is equivalent to the emissions of 33 million average passenger vehicles annually. Whereas beef accounts for only 4% of the retail food supply by weight, it represents 36% of the diet‐related GHG emissions. An iso‐caloric shift from the current average U.S. diet to USDA dietary recommendations could result in a 12% increase in diet‐related GHG emissions, whereas a shift that includes a decrease in caloric intake, based on the needs of the population (assuming moderate activity), results in a small (1%) decrease in diet‐related GHG emissions. These findings emphasize the need to consider environmental costs of food production in formulating recommended food patterns.     

Identification of hotspots of at-risk terrestrial vertebrate species in the south-central Great Plains of North America: A tool to inform and address regional-scale conservation

Biodiversity is being lost at an unprecedented rate, and resources for conservation efforts are limited. This is particularly problematic in the Great Plains of North America, where land-cover conversion for agriculture and energy production has reduced habitat for many species. In the U.S. portion of the Great Plains, a growing human population and a concomitant increasing need for food, fiber, and energy have caused landscape transformations that have resulted in over 700 vertebrate species currently being listed by state and federal conservation agencies as being at-risk in this region. Conservation efforts for such a large number of species will be most efficient when applied to areas with large numbers of these species, but such areas have never before been identified. We overlaid range maps created by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Gap Analysis Program for terrestrial vertebrate species to identify hotspots of high concentrations of U.S. state-defined Species of Greatest Conservation Need (SGCN; species that have identified as being rare or otherwise vulnerable enough to warrant conservation action in a given state) in the short- and mixed-grass prairie ecoregions of the southern and central Great Plains of the United States. We identified hotspots for species currently listed as SGCN as well as those pending designation, and a combined (current and pending) group. We then used data from the U.S. Geological Survey’s Protected Areas Database on land ownership and from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service on land use/land cover to quantify the types of land ownership and land use/land cover types in hotspots to give land managers necessary information to address conservation of at-risk species in the Great Plains. Sufficient data were present for examination of 289 at-risk terrestrial vertebrate species. Hotspots of these species were located mostly on state- or federally-managed land in eastern New Mexico, Colorado, and west Texas. The current hottest hotspots were associated with areas with more natural/less anthropogenic forms of land use/land cover; areas with the lowest numbers of SGCNs had proportionately more cropland and less grassland than did hotspots. Identifying regional hotspots of at-risk biodiversity, and describing land use/land cover features associated with such areas, offers an opportunity to take a multi-species approach in more precisely establishing areas of conservation concern in the U.S.     

Energy and the food system

Modern agriculture is heavily dependent on fossil resources. Both direct energy use for crop management and indirect energy use for fertilizers, pesticides and machinery production have contributed to the major increases in food production seen since the 1960s. However, the relationship between energy inputs and yields is not linear. Low-energy inputs can lead to lower yields and perversely to higher energy demands per tonne of harvested product. At the other extreme, increasing energy inputs can lead to ever-smaller yield gains. Although fossil fuels remain the dominant source of energy for agriculture, the mix of fuels used differs owing to the different fertilization and cultivation requirements of individual crops. Nitrogen fertilizer production uses large amounts of natural gas and some coal, and can account for more than 50 per cent of total energy use in commercial agriculture. Oil accounts for between 30 and 75 per cent of energy inputs of UK agriculture, depending on the cropping system. While agriculture remains dependent on fossil sources of energy, food prices will couple to fossil energy prices and food production will remain a significant contributor to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Technological developments, changes in crop management, and renewable energy will all play important roles in increasing the energy efficiency of agriculture and reducing its reliance of fossil resources.     

Plant and Soil Nematodes: Societal Impact and Focus for the Future.

Plant and soil nematodes significandy impact our lives. Therefore, we must understand and manage these complex organisms so that we may continue to develop and sustain our food production systems, our natural resources, our environment, and our quality of life. This publication looks specifically at soil and plant nematology. First, the societal impact of nematodes and benefits of nematology research are briefly presented. Next, the opportunities facing nematology in the next decade are outlined, as well as the resources needed to address these priorities. The safety and sustainability of U.S. food and fiber production depends on public and administrative understanding of the importance of nematodes, the drastic effects of nematodes on many agricultural and horticultural crops, and the current research priorities of nematology.     

Examining the Links between Biodiversity and Human Health: An Interdisciplinary Research Initiative at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Under the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s mission to protect human health and the environment, the agency seeks to conduct research on the structure and function of ecosystems and to improve our understanding of the processes that contribute to the sustained health of the nation’s ecosystems and the well-being of human populations. Changes in biodiversity can profoundly impact the ability of ecosystems to provide clean water, energy, food, recreation, and other services that contribute to human well-being. In addition, changes in biodiversity can affect the transmission of infectious disease to humans, particularly vectorborne diseases such as malaria and Lyme disease. The Environmental Protection Agency’s new initiative supports interdisciplinary research to characterize the mechanisms that link biodiversity and human health and to use this knowledge to develop integrative tools and approaches for quantifying and predicting these relationships. Research on these links can have an important impact on our view of biodiversity and how we manage resources to protect human and ecosystem health. Disclaimer: This work was funded in part under Grant #CX3-832328 with the American Association for the Advance of Science (AAAS). The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the Environmental Protection Agency.     

Federal communication about obesity in the Dietary Guidelines and checkoff programs

The new Dietary Guidelines for Americans focus on obesity prevention. They recommend increased consumption of whole grains, fruits, vegetables, fish, and low-fat dairy products, within a balanced diet whose total calories have been moderately reduced. Meanwhile, other well-known and well-funded federally sponsored consumer communications promote increased total consumption of beef, pork, and dairy products, including energy dense foods such as bacon cheeseburgers, barbecue pork ribs, pizza, and butter. These latter communications are sponsored by the federal government's commodity promotion programs, known as "checkoff" programs. The programs are established by Congress, approved by a majority of the commodity's producers, managed jointly by a producer board and the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and funded through a tax on the producers. The federal government enforces the collection of more than 600 million US dollars annually in mandatory assessments, approves the advertising and marketing programs, and defends checkoff communication in court as the federal government's own message-in legal jargon, as its own "government speech." Federal support for promoting fruits and vegetables is small by comparison. The checkoff programs recently have become more clearly identified as federal programs. After a recent decision by the U.S. Supreme Court upholding the constitutionality of the checkoff programs, calls for consistency with the Dietary Guidelines may get louder. The current inconsistencies in federal communication undermine the effectiveness of the Dietary Guidelines as an antidote to the shortcomings of the private sector market for information about weight and obesity.     

Willet M. Hays, great benefactor to plant breeding and the founder of our association

Willet M. Hays was a great benefactor to plant breeding and the founder of the American Genetic Association (AGA). We commemorate the AGA's centennial. We mined university archives, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) yearbooks, plant breeding textbooks, scientific periodicals, and descendants for information. Willet Hays first recognized the individual plant as the unit of selection and started systematic pure-line selection and progeny tests in 1888. He developed useful plant breeding methods. He selected superior flax (Linum usitatissimum L.), wheat (Triticum vulgare L.), corn (Zea mays L.), barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), and oat (Avena sativa L.) varieties, and discovered Grimm alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.); all became commercially important. He initiated branch stations for better performance testing. Willet Hays befriended colleagues in other universities, in federal stations, in a London conference, and in Europe. He gathered and spread the scientific plant breeding gospel. He also improved rural roads and initiated animal breeding records and agricultural economics records. He started the AGA in 1903, serving as secretary for 10 years. He became assistant secretary of agriculture in 1904. He introduced the project system for agricultural research. He authored or coauthored the Nelson Amendment, the Smith-Lever Act, the Smith-Hughes Act, and the protocol leading to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization-all involved teaching agricultural practices that improved the world.     

Trends in U.S. food prices, 1950-2007

The potential effect that food prices may have on the health of the U.S. population needs to be further explored, particularly in light of the rising food prices currently being observed. Declining food prices over time have been singled out as a main contributor, for example, to the rising trend in obesity. In this paper we use data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association, the Consumer Expenditure Survey, and the United States Department of Agriculture to analyze trends in various types of food prices, to create a food price index, and to estimate the price of a calorie. Results may be used by future researchers in estimating the health implications of these trends. We find that while the general trend in food prices has been declining, that of restaurant meal prices and prices of fruits and vegetables has risen over time. It is doubtful that the decline in food prices has been sufficiently large to account for the large increase in caloric intake that is said to have contributed to the obesity epidemic in the U.S.     

Emergy and end-point impact assessment of agricultural and food production in the United States: A supply chain-linked Ecologically-based Life Cycle Assessment

The concept of tracing the ecologically-based life cycle impacts of agricultural and food industries (AFIs) has become a topic of interest worldwide due to their critical association with the climate change, water and land footprint, and food security. In this study, an in-depth analysis of ecological resource consumption, atmospheric emissions, land and water footprints of 54 agricultural and food industries in the U.S. were examined extensively. Initially, the supply-chain linked ecological life cycle assessment was performed with Ecologically-based Life Cycle Assessment (Eco-LCA) tool. Then, the results of life cycle inventory were used to assess the mid and end-point impacts by using the ReCiPe approach. Thirdly, ecological performance assessment was performed using well-known metrics, including loading and renewability ratios and eco-efficiency analysis. As a novel comprehensive approach, the integrated framework that consists of the Eco-LCA, ReCiPe and linear programming-based ecological performance assessment is of importance to have an overall understanding about the extent of impacts related to agricultural and food production activities across the U.S. Results indicated that grain farming, dairy food, and animal production-related sectors were found to have the greatest shares in both environmental and ecological impact categories as well as endpoint impacts on human health, ecosystem and resources. In terms of climate change, animal (except poultry) slaughtering, rendering, and processing (ASRP), cattle ranching and farming (CRF), fertilizer manufacturing (FM), grain farming (GF), fluid milk and butter manufacturing (FMBM) were found to be the top five dominant industries in climate change impacts accounting for about 60% share of the total impact.     

Drivers of change in global agriculture

As a result of agricultural intensification, more food is produced today than needed to feed the entire world population and at prices that have never been so low. Yet despite this success and the impact of globalization and increasing world trade in agriculture, there remain large, persistent and, in some cases, worsening spatial differences in the ability of societies to both feed themselves and protect the long-term productive capacity of their natural resources. This paper explores these differences and develops a countryxfarming systems typology for exploring the linkages between human needs, agriculture and the environment, and for assessing options for addressing future food security, land use and ecosystem service challenges facing different societies around the world.     

Billions for biodefense: federal agency biodefense funding, FY2007-FY2008

Since 2001, the U.S. government has spent substantial resources on preparing the nation against a bioterrorist attack. Earlier articles in this series analyzed civilian biodefense funding by the federal government from fiscal years 2001 through 2007. This article updates those figures with budgeted amounts for fiscal year 2008, specifically analyzing the budgets and allocations for biodefense at the Department of Health and Human Services, the Department of Homeland Security, the Department of Defense, the Department of Agriculture, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of State, and the National Science Foundation.     

Sustainable agriculture: how to sustain a production system in a changing environment

During the past 10-15 years, sustainable agriculture has progressed from a focus primarily on a low-input, organic farming approach with a major emphasis on small fruit or vegetable production farms, often described as Low Input Sustainable Agriculture, to the current situation where sustainability is an important part of mainstream animal and plant production units. The US Department of Agriculture programmes cover a broad range of activities, including conserving the natural resource base, enhancing environmental quality, and sustaining productivity of the nation's farms. The use of Geographic Information Systems technology to direct application of fertilisers, pesticides, and herbicides is one example of a rapidly emerging technology that can reduce use of external inputs, protect the agricultural environment, and improve economic returns. This Geographic Information Systems technology also is being used to localise animal pest and disease problems, assist in regulatory or control measures, and identify high risk areas that might need different management systems or should be avoided as sites for animal production. Use of intensive grazing systems also has increased markedly over the past 5-6 years. These systems will allow longer grazing seasons in southern parts of the USA, provide more efficient use of the forages being produced and reduce labour costs in the typical dairy operation. Major animal and plant production agriculture-oriented programmes at the US Department of Agriculture focus on integrated production systems, use of Integrated Pest Management techniques, and development of alternative methods to manage pests and diseases that reduce or avoid the use of drugs and chemicals. The US Department of Agriculture has a programme for sustainable agriculture, the Sustainable Agriculture Research and Education programme, which emphasises alternative approaches for animal and plant production systems.     

美国对入侵种的管理对策

外来种入侵是产生当前世界生物多样性危机的重要原因之一。目前外来种入侵问题已经引起人们的普遍关注。1999年2月美国联邦政府发布总统令,号召联邦政府机构执行人员防止外来入侵种所造成的严重环境威胁,指示有关职能部门行使职权阻止引入入侵种并且恢复本地种。总统令指示建立一个入侵物种理事会,并就理事会、联邦机构的职责做了相应界定。美国农业部等部门支持的入侵植物管理国家策略项目,提出了针对入侵种的三项国家目标一入侵种的预防、控制和本地种的恢复。国家管理策略的制定不同层次的人们提供了合作、教育和研究的机遇。美国政府部门以及有关社会团体已经就外来种入侵危害防范积极展开行动,包括制定标准防止入侵种进入,控制、根除入侵种,向民众进行有关外来种入侵的教育,增加财政年度预算等等。     

The origin of human pathogens: evaluating the role of agriculture and domestic animals in the evolution of human disease

Many significant diseases of human civilization are thought to have arisen concurrently with the advent of agriculture in human society. It has been hypothesised that the food produced by farming increased population sizes to allow the maintenance of virulent pathogens, i.e. civilization pathogens, while domestic animals provided sources of disease to humans. To determine the relationship between pathogens in humans and domestic animals, I examined phylogenetic data for several human pathogens that are commonly evolutionarily linked to domestic animals: measles, pertussis, smallpox, tuberculosis, taenid worms, and falciparal malaria. The majority are civilization pathogens, although I have included others whose evolutionary origins have traditionally been ascribed to domestic animals. The strongest evidence for a domestic-animal origin exists for measles and pertussis, although the data do not exclude a non-domestic origin. As for the other pathogens, the evidence currently available makes it difficult to determine if the domestic-origin hypothesis is supported or refuted; in fact, intriguing data for tuberculosis and taenid worms suggests that transmission may occur as easily from humans to domestic animals. These findings do not abrogate the importance of agriculture in disease transmission; rather, if anything, they suggest an alternative, more complex series of effects than previously elucidated. Rather than domestication, the broader force for human pathogen evolution could be ecological change, namely anthropogenic modification of the environment. This is supported by evidence that many current emerging infectious diseases are associated with human modification of the environment. Agriculture may have changed the transmission ecology of pre-existing human pathogens, increased the success of pre-existing pathogen vectors, resulted in novel interactions between humans and wildlife, and, through the domestication of animals, provided a stable conduit for human infection by wildlife diseases.     

Rhizobacterial mediation of plant hormone status

Plant growth-promoting rhizobacteria are commonly found in the rhizosphere (adjacent to the root surface) and may promote plant growth via several diverse mechanisms, including the production or degradation of the major groups of plant hormones that regulate plant growth and development. Although rhizobacterial production of plant hormones seems relatively widespread (as judged from physico-chemical measurements of hormones in bacterial culture media), evidence continues to accumulate, particularly from seedlings grown under gnotobiotic conditions, that rhizobacteria can modify plant hormone status. Since many rhizobacteria can impact on more than one hormone group, bacterial mutants in hormone production/degradation and plant mutants in hormone sensitivity have been useful to establish the importance of particular signalling pathways. Although plant roots exude many potential substrates for rhizobacterial growth, including plant hormones or their precursors, limited progress has been made in determining whether root hormone efflux can select for particular rhizobacterial traits. Rhizobacterial mediation of plant hormone status not only has local effects on root elongation and architecture, thus mediating water and nutrient capture, but can also affect plant root-to-shoot hormonal signalling that regulates leaf growth and gas exchange. Renewed emphasis on providing sufficient food for a growing world population, while minimising environmental impacts of agriculture because of overuse of fertilisers and irrigation water, will stimulate the commercialisation of rhizobacterial inoculants (including those that alter plant hormone status) to sustain crop growth and yield. Combining rhizobacterial traits (or species) that impact on plant hormone status thereby modifying root architecture (to capture existing soil resources) with traits that make additional resources available (e.g. nitrogen fixation, phosphate solubilisation) may enhance the sustainability of agriculture.     

After the Revolution: Post-Neolithic Subsistence in Northern Mesopotamia

Over the past two decades there has been a proliferation of studies that reveal a far greater diversity in the pathways to food production worldwide than would have been predicted by traditional models of the Neolithic Revolution. It would now appear that, while there are certain universal elements in the origins of food production, each instance of the incorporation of domestic resources into the subsistence economy is shaped by highly localized social and natural forces. It is perhaps not surprising, then, to find that the times after the Neolithic Revolution do not conform to earlier uniformitarian conceptions of the origin of food production as either a technological blessing or an environmental blight that locked people into an economy based solely on domestic resources. This examination of subsistence at Umm Qseir, one small post-Neolithic community in the Khabur Draïnage of Northern Mesopotamia, highlights the remarkable degree of flexibility and individualized response in post-Neolithic economies in the Near East, especially in marginal areas. The incorporation of both domestic and wild resources into the economy of inhabitants of this site is further shown not to be just an isolated curiosity. Rather, Umm Qseir joins a number of other post-Neolithic communities situated in marginal areas, persisting several millennia after the first introduction of domestic crops and animals, that also fashioned highly individualized subsistence economies based on both wild and damestic resources. In the Khabur Drainage, the blending of domestic and wild resources in the subsistence of people situated in more arid areas is replaced by a more "conventional" agropastoral economy only with development of urbanism and the imposition of an agricultural economy of scale on this fragile environment.