Species range size distributions for some marine taxa in the Atlantic Ocean. Effect of latitude and depth

The range size distributions of 6643 species in ten different fish and invertebrate taxa dwelling in pelagic (latitudinal range sizes) and benthic (latitudinal and depth range sizes) habitats on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean (80°N−70°S) were studied. The objectives were to analyse: (1) the range size distribution patterns for the various taxa and whether they have right/left skewed or lognormal distributions; (2) the geographical species distributions, to ascertain whether the distribution ranges change with latitude (Rapoport's rule); and (3) the relationship between the depth ranges of benthic species and their maximum depth of occurrence and how depth range size distributions change with latitude. The pelagic taxa exhibited larger range sizes than did the benthic taxa, continental slope/rise species excepted. On the other hand, the boundaries between geographical provinces for both benthic taxa and pelagic taxa tended to occur in association with major oceanographic processes. The shape of the latitudinal range frequency distributions (LRFDs) of the pelagic organisms were distinctly left‐skewed, and the LRFDs for most taxa were significantly different from lognormal. There was no common pattern for the distributions of the benthic organisms, which were lognormal in Cephalopoda, Stomatopoda, and Crustacea Decapoda and tended to be left‐skewed and significantly different from lognormal in Pisces. The applicability of Rapoport's rule was not clearly inferable from the results, and the rule appears to be conditioned by the location of biogeographical boundaries and the endemism rate in the different biogeographical provinces. A clear increase in depth range size with maximum depth range was observable for benthic species, confirming previous studies. Species’ depth range distributions displayed a discernible latitudinal pattern, right‐skewed at high latitudes and left‐skewed at low latitudes. The location of biogeographical boundaries, and endemism rate by biogeographical province were considered to be the factors most useful in explaining species’ distribution patterns and their conformity or nonconformity to Rapoport's rule. © 2003 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2003, 80 , 437–455.     

Wing morphology and migration status,but not body size,habitat or Rapoport's rule predict range size in North‐American dragonflies (Odonata: Libellulidae)

Understanding why species range sizes vary is important for predicting the impact of environmental change on biodiversity. Here we use a multi‐variable approach in a phylogenetic comparative context to understand how four morphological, two ecological, and two eco‐geographical variables are associated with range size, latitudinal range and longitudinal range in 81 species of North‐American libellulid dragonflies. Our results show that: 1) migratory species and species with a more expanded basal hindwing lobe have a larger range size; 2) opposite to Rapoport's rule, latitudinal range is negatively correlated with mid‐range latitude; 3) longitudinal range is predicted by wing morphology and migration; 4) body size and larval habitat are not correlated with range size, latitudinal range or longitudinal range. These results suggest that dispersal‐related traits, such as wing shape and migratory status, are important factors in predicting the range size of libellulid dragonflies. In addition, the reverse Rapoport's rule suggests that more northern‐centred species might be more specialized than more southern‐centred species. We suggest that the variables predicting range size are likely imposed by taxon‐specific morphological, ecological, physiological and behavioural traits. Taxon‐specific knowledge is thus necessary to understand the dynamics of range sizes and is important to implement successful restoration and conservation plans of threatened species.     

Environmental correlates of body size distributions of European springtails (Hexapoda: Collembola)

Aim Species–body size distributions (SBDs) are plots of species richness across body size classes. They have been linked to energetic constraints, speciation–extinction dynamics and to evolutionary trends. However, little is known about the spatial variation of size distributions. Here we study SBDs of European springtails (Collembola) at a continental scale and test whether minimum, average and maximum body size and the shapes of size distributions change across latitudinal and longitudinal gradients and whether SBDs of islands and mainlands differ. We also test whether the island rule and the positive body size–range size relationship of vertebrates also holds for Collembola. Location Europe. Methods We use a unique data set on the spatial distributions of 2102 species of European springtails across 52 countries and larger islands together with associated data on body size, area, climate variables, longitude and latitude. Differences in the central moments of SBDs are inferred from simultaneous spatial autoregression models. Results The SBD of the European Collembola and its largest suborder Entomobryomorpha is unimodal and symmetrical. Average, minimum and maximum body weight and the skewness of the mainland/island SBDs peaked at intermediate latitudes. We could not find simple latitudinal gradients in minimum and maximum body weight. Average and maximum body size increased with country/island area in accordance with the island rule in vertebrates, while minimum body size did not significantly differ between islands and mainlands. Finally, we found a weak but statistically significant positive correlation of range size and body size. Main conclusions We provide evidence for differences in body size distributions between islands and mainlands that are in part in line with the island rule in invertebrates. We also find evidence for an interspecific body size–range size relationship similar to that of vertebrates although the vertebrate pattern is much stronger than the springtail pattern. Our results on latitudinal gradients of maximum and average body size imply the need to account for species richness and area effects in the study of latitudinal gradients in body size. We recommend implementing sample size and area effects in the study of body size distributions on islands and mainlands.     

Metabolic partitioning across individuals in ecological communities

The mechanistic origin and shape of body‐size distributions within communities are of considerable interest in ecology. A recently proposed light‐limitation model provides a good fit to the distribution of tree sizes in a tropical forest plot. The maximum entropy theory of ecology (METE) also predicts size distributions, but without explicit mechanistic assumptions, and thus its predictions should hold in ecosystems generally, regardless of whether they are light limited. A comparison of the form and success of the predictions of the model and the theory can provide insight into the role that mechanisms play in shaping patterns in macroecology. The prediction by the METE of the size distribution of organisms is remarkably similar in form to that of the model: power‐law behaviour in the size range where the light‐limitation model predicts a power law, and exponential behaviour in the size range where the model predicts an exponential tail. The METE prediction matches data widely, including data in ecosystems where light is not limiting. We show examples for three disparate communities: trees in a tropical forest plot; herbaceous plants in a treeless subalpine meadow; and island arthropods. We conclude that the success of METE's predicted form across systems, including those that are clearly not light limited, enriches our capacity to predict patterns in macroecology without making explicit mechanistic assumptions and provides a unified framework that can capture ubiquitous features of those patterns across diverse ecosystems governed by a variety of mechanisms.     

Adding energy gradients and long‐distance dispersal to a neutral model improves predictions of Madagascan bird diversity

Macroecological patterns are likely the result of both stochastically neutral mechanisms and deterministic differences between species. In Madagascar, the simplest stochastically neutral hypothesis – the mid‐domain effects (MDE) hypothesis – has already been rejected. However, rejecting the MDE hypothesis does not necessarily refute the existence of all other neutral mechanisms. Here, we test whether adding complexity to a basic neutral model improves predictions of biodiversity patterns. The simplest MDE model assumes that: (1) species' ranges are continuous and unfragmented, (2) are randomly located throughout the landscape, and (3) can be stacked independently and indefinitely. We designed a simulation based on neutral theory that allowed us to weaken each of these assumptions incrementally by adjusting the habitat capacity as well as the likelihood of short‐ and long‐distance dispersal. Simulated outputs were compared to four empirical patterns of bird diversity: the frequency distributions of species richness and range size, the within‐island latitudinal diversity gradient, and the distance‐decay of species compositional similarity. Neutral models emulated empirical diversity patterns for Madagascan birds accurately. The frequency distribution of range size, latitudinal diversity gradient, and the distance‐decay of species compositional similarity could be attributed to stochastic long‐distance migration events and zero‐sum population dynamics. However, heterogenous environmental gradients improved predictions of the frequency distribution of species richness. Patterns of bird diversity in Madagascar can broadly be attributed to stochastic long‐distance migration events and zero‐sum population dynamics. This implies that rejecting simple hypotheses, such as MDE, does not serve as evidence against stochastic processes in general. However, environmental gradients were necessary to explain patterns of species richness and deterministic differences between species are probably important for explaining the distributions of narrow‐range and endemic species.     

Sea‐ice loss boosts visual search: fish foraging and changing pelagic interactions in polar oceans

Light is a central driver of biological processes and systems. Receding sea ice changes the lightscape of high‐latitude oceans and more light will penetrate into the sea. This affects bottom‐up control through primary productivity and top‐down control through vision‐based foraging. We model effects of sea‐ice shading on visual search to develop a mechanistic understanding of how climate‐driven sea‐ice retreat affects predator–prey interactions. We adapt a prey encounter model for ice‐covered waters, where prey‐detection performance of planktivorous fish depends on the light cycle. We use hindcast sea‐ice concentrations (past 35 years) and compare with a future no‐ice scenario to project visual range along two south–north transects with different sea‐ice distributions and seasonality, one through the Bering Sea and one through the Barents Sea. The transect approach captures the transition from sub‐Arctic to Arctic ecosystems and allows for comparison of latitudinal differences between longitudes. We find that past sea‐ice retreat has increased visual search at a rate of 2.7% to 4.2% per decade from the long‐term mean; and for high latitudes, we predict a 16‐fold increase in clearance rate. Top‐down control is therefore predicted to intensify. Ecological and evolutionary consequences for polar marine communities and energy flows would follow, possibly also as tipping points and regime shifts. We expect species distributions to track the receding ice‐edge, and in particular expect species with large migratory capacity to make foraging forays into high‐latitude oceans. However, the extreme seasonality in photoperiod of high‐latitude oceans may counteract such shifts and rather act as a zoogeographical filter limiting poleward range expansion. The provided mechanistic insights are relevant for pelagic ecosystems globally, including lakes where shifted distributions are seldom possible but where predator–prey consequences would be much related. As part of the discussion on photoperiodic implications for high‐latitude range shifts, we provide a short review of studies linking physical drivers to latitudinal extent.     

Mean latitudinal range sizes of bird assemblages in six Neotropical forest chronosequences

Aim The geographical range size frequency distributions of animal and plant assemblages are among the most important factors affecting large‐scale patterns of diversity. Nonetheless, the relationship between habitat type and the range size distributions of species forming assemblages remains poorly understood. We examined how the mean latitudinal range sizes of species in Neotropical bird species assemblages shift during forest clearance and subsequent regeneration. We tested the hypothesis that bird species assemblages in early successional habitats tend to have larger latitudinal ranges than those in more mature forests. Location We considered breeding bird chronosequence data from six Neotropical forests. Results Breeding bird assemblages were found to have the species with the largest average latitudinal range sizes in cleared areas, intermediate in young secondary forests and smallest in old secondary and mature forests. Similar differences were also found when we compared congeners differing in their successional preferences. Sizes of regional ranges (within the Neotropics) did not, however, differ consistently among successional stages. The larger latitudinal (but not regional) ranges of early successional species was as a result in part of the tendency of early successional species to have ranges that extend beyond the Neotropical forest biome. Conclusions Our analysis of chronosequences suggests that as early successional habitats mature, a consistent shift from large‐ranged species towards more small ranged species occurs. Even relatively old secondary forests have bird species with larger average ranges than mature forests. As a consequence, conservation of secondary forests alone will miss many of the species most at risk of extinction and most unlikely to be conserved in other locations or biomes.     

Geographic range size and evolutionary age in birds

Together with patterns of speciation and extinction, post-speciation transformations in the range sizes of individual species determine the form of contemporary species range-size distributions. However, the methodological problems associated with tracking the dynamics of a species' range size over evolutionary time have precluded direct study of such range-size transformations, although indirect evidence has led to several models being proposed describing the form that they might take. Here, we use independently derived molecular data to estimate ages of species in six monophyletic groups of birds, and examine the relationship between species age and global geographic range size. We present strong evidence that avian range sizes are not static over evolutionary time. In addition, it seems that, with the regular exception of certain taxa (for example island endemics and some threatened species), range-size transformations are non-random in birds. In general, range sizes appear to expand relatively rapidly post speciation; subsequently; and perhaps more gradually, they then decline as species age. We discuss these results with reference to the various models of range-size dynamics that have been proposed.     

Does Litter Size Variation Affect Models of Terrestrial Carnivore Extinction Risk and Management?

Background

Individual variation in both survival and reproduction has the potential to influence extinction risk. Especially for rare or threatened species, reliable population models should adequately incorporate demographic uncertainty. Here, we focus on an important form of demographic stochasticity: variation in litter sizes. We use terrestrial carnivores as an example taxon, as they are frequently threatened or of economic importance. Since data on intraspecific litter size variation are often sparse, it is unclear what probability distribution should be used to describe the pattern of litter size variation for multiparous carnivores.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used litter size data on 32 terrestrial carnivore species to test the fit of 12 probability distributions. The influence of these distributions on quasi-extinction probabilities and the probability of successful disease control was then examined for three canid species – the island fox Urocyon littoralis, the red fox Vulpes vulpes, and the African wild dog Lycaon pictus. Best fitting probability distributions differed among the carnivores examined. However, the discretised normal distribution provided the best fit for the majority of species, because variation among litter-sizes was often small. Importantly, however, the outcomes of demographic models were generally robust to the distribution used.

Conclusion/Significance

These results provide reassurance for those using demographic modelling for the management of less studied carnivores in which litter size variation is estimated using data from species with similar reproductive attributes.     

Latitudinal variation in clutch size–lay date regressions in Tachycineta swallows: effects of food supply or demography?

In a study of almost 16 000 nest records from seven swallow species across the entire Western Hemisphere, clutch sizes decline with relative laying date in each population, but the slope of this decline grows steeper with increasing distance from the equator. Late‐laying birds at all latitudes lay clutches of similar sizes, suggesting that latitudinal differences may be driven primarily by earlier‐laying birds. Focused comparisons of site‐years in North America with qualitatively different food availability indicate that food supply significantly affects mean clutch size but not the clutch size–lay date regression. Other studies on the seasonality of swallow food also indicate that steeper clutch size–lay date declines in the North are not caused by steeper earlier food peaks there. The distribution of lay dates grows increasingly right‐skewed with increasing latitude. This variation in lay‐date distributions could be due to the predominance of higher quality, early‐laying (and large‐clutched) individuals among populations at higher latitudes, resulting from latitudinal variation in mortality rates and the intensity of sexual selection. Our results underscore the importance of studying clutch size and lay date in tandem and suggest new research into the causes of their joint geographic variation.     

The Invasion of Barred Owls and its Potential Effect on the Spotted Owl: a Conservation Conundrum

The spotted owl (Strix occidentalis) is a threatened species in many areas of its western North American range. Concomitant with its decline has been a rapid invasion of its range and habitat by barred owls (Strix varia), a native species that was restricted, until relatively recently, to eastern North America. We assess the theoretical potential for negative interactions between these two owls by examining size dimorphism and ecological relationships within various owl assemblages throughout the world. We then review the anecdotal, natural history, modeling, and experimental evidence that suggest barred owls may negatively affect spotted owls with at least a potential for the competitive exclusion of spotted owls by barred owls throughout all or part of the former’2019;s range. While it is widely accepted that barred owls are either causing or exacerbating declines of spotted owl populations, there are confounding factors, such as habitat loss and bad weather that also may contribute to declines of spotted owls. Both theory and empirical information suggest that barred owls are likely to have negative effects on spotted owl range and density, but the degree of the impact is not predictable. There is a conservation conundrum here, in that the barred owl is a native species that has expanded its range westwards, either naturally or with a degree of human facilitation, and now constitutes a major threat to the viability of another native species, the threatened spotted owl. We propose that only through carefully designed experiments involving removal of barred owls will we be able to determine if recent declines in spotted owl populations are caused by barred owls or by other factors. It is rare in conservation science that replicate study areas exist for which we also have long-standing demographic information, as is the case with the spotted owl. Removal experiments would take advantage of the wealth of data on spotted owls, and allow ecologists to assess formally the impacts of an invasive species on a threatened species, as well as to suggest mitigation measures.     

Body size and latitudinal gradients in regional diversity of New World birds

Are latitudinal gradients in regional diversity random or biased with respect to body size? Using data for the New World avifauna, I show that the slope of the increase in regional species richness from the Arctic to the equator is not independent of body size. The increase is steepest among small and medium‐sized species, and shallowest among the largest species. This is reflected in latitudinal variation in the shape of frequency distributions of body sizes in regional subsets of the New World avifauna. Because species are added disproportionately in small and medium size classes towards low latitudes, distributions become less widely spread along the body size axis than expected from the number of species. These patterns suggest an interaction between the effects of latitude and body size on species richness, implying that mechanisms which vary with both latitude and body size may be important determinants of high tropical diversity in New World birds.     

Environmental steepness,tolerance gradient,and ecogeographical rules in glassfrogs (Anura: Centrolenidae)

Spatial variation in biological traits reflects evolutionary and biogeographical processes of the history of clades, and patterns of body size and range size can be suitable to recover such processes. In the present study, we test for latitudinal and altitudinal gradients in both body and range sizes in an entire family of tropical anurans, Centrolenidae. We partition the species latitudinal, and altitudinal distributions into an indirect measure of tolerance, and then test its effect on the body size gradient. We use an assemblage‐based approach to correlate the traits with altitudinal and latitudinal axes, taking into account both phylogenetic and spatial autocorrelation in data. Centrolenids lack any gradient in range size but show a positive cline of both body size and adaptive body enlargement with altitude. This pattern is also positively correlated with an altitudinal gradient of cold tolerance, thus lending support to the heat balance hypothesis as an explanation of the body size cline. By using an entire Neotropical clade of anurans, we add further support for Bergmann's rule in ectotherms, warn for a likely effect of environmental steepness in fashioning the gradient, and offer evidence for an historical scenario (the Oligocene–Eocene Andean uplift) as its likely trigger. © 2013 The Linnean Society of London     

Body size distributions in North American freshwater fish: large‐scale factors

Aim To document continental‐ and regional‐scale variation in the size distributions of freshwater fish and examine some energetic, evolutionary and biogeographic explanations for these patterns. Location North America. Methods Regional species lists, coupled with habitat and body size information, were used to document the spatial patterns. Results At the continental scale, riverine specialist fishes show a unimodal, right‐skewed, body size distribution whereas habitat generalist and lacustrine specialist species exhibit bimodal size distributions, with only a slight preponderance of small‐mode species. Most large‐mode species are migratory. Resident species, unlike migratory ones, show a latitudinal increase in mean size, but the size increase across all species is steeper because the importance of large migratory species increases with latitude. Size distributions change from right‐ to left‐skewed with increasing latitude. Maximum body size does not change with increasing family richness but minimum size declines and skewness increases, consistent with diversification of small species. Skewness does not vary with mean family body size. Main conclusions Post‐glacial recolonization by large, habitat generalist, migratory species is the main determinant of latitudinal size distribution trends. There is little support for the energetic hypothesis, but the data are consistent with a negative Cope's rule.     

Species traits and climate velocity explain geographic range shifts in an ocean‐warming hotspot

Species' ranges are shifting globally in response to climate warming, with substantial variability among taxa, even within regions. Relationships between range dynamics and intrinsic species traits may be particularly apparent in the ocean, where temperature more directly shapes species' distributions. Here, we test for a role of species traits and climate velocity in driving range extensions in the ocean‐warming hotspot of southeast Australia. Climate velocity explained some variation in range shifts, however, including species traits more than doubled the variation explained. Swimming ability, omnivory and latitudinal range size all had positive relationships with range extension rate, supporting hypotheses that increased dispersal capacity and ecological generalism promote extensions. We find independent support for the hypothesis that species with narrow latitudinal ranges are limited by factors other than climate. Our findings suggest that small‐ranging species are in double jeopardy, with limited ability to escape warming and greater intrinsic vulnerability to stochastic disturbances.     

Limits to the estimation of species richness: The use of relative abundance distributions

The present study demonstrates the possibility of estimating species numbers of animal or plant communities from samples using relative abundance distributions. We use log‐abundance–species‐rank order plots and derive two new estimators that are based on log‐series and lognormal distributions. At small to moderate sample sizes these estimators appear to be more precise than previous parametric and nonparametric estimators. We test our estimators using samples from 171 published medium‐sized to large animal and plant communities taken from the literature. By this we show that our new estimators define also limits of precision.     

Interspecific patterns of species richness, geographic range size, and body size among New World venomous snakes

Many higher taxa exhibit latitudinal gradients in species richness, geographic range size, and body size. However, these variables are often interdependent, such that examinations of univariate or bivariate patterns alone may be misleading. Therefore, I examined latitudinal gradients in, and relationships between, species richness, geographic range size, and body size among 144 species of New World venomous snakes [families Elapidae (coral snakes) and Viperidae (pitvipers)]. Both lineages are monophyletic, collectively span 99° of latitude, and are extremely variable in body size and geographic range sizes. Coral snakes exhibit highest species richness near the equator, while pitviper species richness peaks in Central America. Species – range size distributions were strongly right-skewed for both families. There was little support for Bergmann's rule or Rapoport's rule for snakes of either family, as neither body size nor range size increased significantly with latitude. However, range area and median range latitude were positively correlated above 15° N, indicating a possible "Rapoport effect" at high northern latitudes. Geographic range size was positively associated with body size. Available continental area strongly influenced range size. Comparative (phylogenetically-based) analyses revealed that shared history is a poor predictor of range size variation within clades. Among vipers, trends in geographic range sizes may have been structured more by historical biogeography than by macroecological biotic factors.     

Wintering space use and site fidelity in a nomadic species,the snowy owl

Migratory species can exploit many habitats over vast geographic areas and adopt various patterns of space and habitat use throughout their annual cycle. In nomadic species, determinants of habitat use during the non‐breeding season are poorly known due to the unpredictability of their movement patterns. Here, we analysed variability in wintering space and habitat use by a highly nomadic species, the snowy owl, in eastern North America. Using 21 females tracked by satellite telemetry between 2007 and 2016, we 1) assessed how space use patterns in winter varied according to the type of environment (marine vs terrestrial), latitudinal zone (Arctic vs temperate), local snow conditions and lemming densities and 2) investigated winter habitat and site fidelity. Our results confirmed a high inter‐individual variation in patterns of habitat use by wintering snowy owls. Highly‐used areas were concentrated in the Arctic and in the marine and coastal environments. Owls wintering in the marine environment travelled over longer distances during the winter, had larger home ranges and these were divided in more smaller zones than individuals in terrestrial environments. Wintering home range sizes decreased with high winter lemming densities, use of the marine environment increased following high summer lemming densities, and a thick snow cover in autumn led to later settlement on the wintering ground. Contrary to expectations, snowy owls tended to make greater use of the marine environment when snow cover was thin. Snowy owls were highly consistent in their use of a given wintering environment and a specific latitudinal zone between years, but demonstrated flexibility in their space use and a modest site fidelity. The snowy owls’ consistency in wintering habitat use may provide them with advantages in terms of experience but their mobility and flexibility may help them to cope with changing environmental conditions at fine spatial scale.     

The mid‐domain effect matters: simulation analyses of range‐size distribution data from Mount Kinabalu,Borneo

Aim In simulation exercises, mid‐domain peaks in species richness arise as a result of the random placement of modelled species ranges within simulated geometric constraints. This has been called the mid‐domain effect (MDE). Where close correspondence is found between such simulations and empirical data, it is not possible to reject the hypothesis that empirical species richness patterns result from the MDE rather than being the outcome (wholly or largely) of other factors. To separate the influence of the MDE from other factors we therefore need to evaluate variables other than species richness. The distribution of range sizes gives different predictions between models including the MDE or not. Here, we produce predictions for species richness and distribution of range sizes from one model without the MDE and from two MDE models: a classical MDE model encompassing only species with their entire range within the domain (range‐restricted MDE), and a model encompassing all species with the theoretical midpoint within the domain (midpoint‐restricted MDE). These predictions are compared with observations from the elevational pattern of range‐size distributions and species richness of vascular plants. Location Mount Kinabalu, Borneo. Methods The data set analysed comprises more than 28,000 plant specimens with information on elevation. Species ranges are simulated with various assumptions for the three models, and the species simulated are subsequently subjected to a sampling that simulates the actual collection of species on Mount Kinabalu. The resulting pattern of species richness and species range‐size distributions are compared with the observed pattern. Results The comparison of simulated and observed patterns indicates that an underlying monotonically decreasing trend in species richness with elevation is essential to explain fully the observed pattern of richness and range size. When the underlying trend is accounted for, the MDE model that restricts the distributions of theoretical midpoints performs better than both the classical MDE model and the model that does not incorporate geometric constraints. Main conclusions Of the three models evaluated here, the midpoint‐restricted MDE model is found to be the best for explaining species richness and species range‐size distributions on Mount Kinabalu.     

A comparative ecological study of Norwegian mountain plants in relation to possible future climatic change

Mountain plants constitute an important part of the Norwegian flora. They are also believed to be the plant group in Norway most threatened by the expected climatic warming due to an enhanced greenhouse effect in the near future. In this study the distributions of 107 mountain Norwegian vascular plants were modelled in relation to present-day climate using Gaussian logit regression. Most species are found to have a surprisingly broad amplitude to mean July and January temperatures, suggesting that a 2°C increase in summer temperature and 4°C increase in winter temperature (as expected with a 2×CO₂ increase) may not have a dramatic direct effect on most of the species investigated. A comparative study between estimated July and January temperature optima and tolerances and other ecological attributes such as habitat characteristics, dispersal mechanisms, range sizes and other climatic optima and tolerances was done using multivariate analysis. The results suggest that species most vulnerable to climatic warming, namely the species with narrow July and January temperature tolerances, are characterized by small range sizes and small population sizes, i.e. they are nationally rare species. Furthermore, these vulnerable species are found in all habitats along the major moisture gradient in alpine vegetation. A classification of the species into Rabinowitz's seven forms of rarity confirms that the species most vulnerable to climatic warming are characterized by being habitat specialists with a small geographic range size.