The nitrogen cycle,scientific uncertainty and policy relevant science

Much of the research on the nitrogen cycle aims to improving scientific understanding but is not focused specifically on removing or reducing the scientific uncertainties that constrain policy makers in the formulation of appropriate responses to old or emerging environmental problems. Policy makers, for example, commonly find it difficult to assess the spatial or temporal importance of the various risks to human and ecosystem health that stem from man’s interference with the natural N cycle. This paper will justify this conclusion by reference to the findings of a recent study on non-point pollution from crop production in China. The findings concern the perceived risks of groundwater nitrate to human health; uncertainties about critical NO_x levels and their interactions with other pollutants; various other dimensions of man’s impact on the N cycle. The paper will go on to suggest a more systematic process or pathway by which scientists can select and design their research in a manner that could give more effective support to policy makers.

     

The nitrogen cycle, scientific uncertainty and policy relevant science

Much of the research on the nitrogen cycle aims to improving scientific understanding but is not focused specifically on removing or reducing the scientific uncertainties that constrain policy makers in the formulation of appropriate responses to old or emerging environmental problems. Policy makers, for example, commonly find it difficult to assess the spatial or temporal importance of the various risks to human and ecosystem health that stem from man's interference with the natural N cycle. This paper will justify this conclusion by reference to the findings of a recent study on non-point pollution from crop production in China. The findings concern the perceived risks of groundwater nitrate to human health; uncertainties about critical NOx levels and their interactions with other pollutants; various other dimensions of man's impact on the N cycle. The paper will go on to suggest a more systematic process or pathway by which scientists can select and design their research in a manner that could give more effective support to policy makers.     

The nitrogen cycle, scientific uncertainty and policy relevant science

Much of the research on the nitrogen cycle aims to improving scientific understanding but is not focused specifically on removing or reducing the scientific uncertainties that constrain policy makers in the formulation of appropriate responses to old or emerging environmental problems. Policy makers, for example, commonly find it difficult to assess the spatial or temporal importance of the various risks to human and ecosystem health that stem from man's interference with the natural N cycle. This paper will justify this conclusion by reference to the findings of a recent study on non-point pollution from crop production in China. The findings concern the perceived risks of groundwater nitrate to human health; uncertainties about critical NOX levels and their interactions with other pollutants; various other dimensions of man's impact on the N cycle. The paper will go on to suggest a more systematic process or pathway by which scientists can select and design their research in a manner that could give more effective support to policy makers.     

Pharmacogenetics and uncertainty: implications for policy makers

Uncertainty for policy makers is not new but the pressure to make decisions under conditions of uncertainty is perhaps greater than ever. The arrival of new scientific developments such as pharmacogenetics offers potentially great benefits (as well as significant risks). They have passionate supporters as well as doubters. The evidence is often extensive but unclear and policy makers may find themselves under pressure to make decisions before they feel that the evidence is compelling. The UK is particularly well placed to play a leading role in the development of pharmacogenetics and is equally well placed to derive the benefits to both health and wealth that could flow from this. However, the uncertainties threaten to overwhelm the capacity of policy makers to act effectively. The uncertainties are both about the context within which the science and delivery of pharmacogenetics is being developed and about the interests that could be served. This paper maps these uncertainties and concludes with some suggestions, drawing on deliberative democracy and futures thinking, as to how policy makers might manage the tensions and dilemmas they face by moving from an unstable, emergent policy arena to a more stable one.     

Alleged misconceptions' distort perceptions of environmental cancer risks.

In a series of papers, Ames and colleagues allege that the scientific and public health communities have perpetuated a series of 'misconceptions' that resulted in inaccurate identification of chemicals that pose potential human cancer risks, and misguided cancer prevention strategies and regulatory policies. They conclude that exposures to industrial and synthetic chemicals represent negligible cancer risks and that animal studies have little or no scientific value for assessing human risks. Their conclusions are based on flawed and untested assumptions. For instance, they claim that synthetic residues on food can be ignored because 99.99% of pesticides humans eat are natural, chemicals in plants are pesticides, and their potential to cause cancer equals that of synthetic pesticides. Similarly, Ames does not offer any convincing scientific evidence to justify discrediting bioassays for identifying human carcinogens. Ironically, their arguments center on a ranking procedure that relies on the same experimental data and extrapolation methods they criticize as being unreliable for evaluating cancer risks. We address their inconsistencies and flaws, and present scientific facts and our perspectives surrounding Ames' nine alleged misconceptions. Our conclusions agree with the International Agency for Research on Cancer, the National Toxicology Program, and other respected scientific organizations: in the absence of human data, animal studies are the most definitive for assessing human cancer risks. Animal data should not be ignored, and precautions should be taken to lessen human exposures. Dismissing animal carcinogenicity findings would lead to human cancer cases as the only means of demonstrating carcinogenicity of environmental agents. This is unacceptable public health policy.     

Economic analysis as a basis for large-scale nitrogen control decisions: reducing nitrogen loads to the Gulf of Mexico

Economic analysis can be a guide to determining the level of actions taken to reduce nitrogen (N) losses and reduce environmental risk in a cost-effective manner while also allowing consideration of relative costs of controls to various groups. The biophysical science of N control, especially from nonpoint sources such as agriculture, is not certain. Widespread precise data do not exist for a river basin (or often even for a watershed) that couples management practices and other actions to reduce nonpoint N losses with specific delivery from the basin. The causal relationships are clouded by other factors influencing N flows, such as weather, temperature, and soil characteristics. Even when the science is certain, economic analysis has its own sets of uncertainties and simplifying economic assumptions. The economic analysis of the National Hypoxia Assessment provides an example of economic analysis based on less than complete scientific information that can still provide guidance to policy makers about the economic consequences of alternative approaches. One critical value to policy makers comes from bounding the economic magnitude of the consequences of alternative actions. Another value is the identification of impacts outside the sphere of initial concerns. Such analysis can successfully assess relative impacts of different degrees of control of N losses within the basin as well as outside the basin. It can demonstrate the extent to which costs of control of any one action increase with the intensity of application of control.     

Health and environment

The impact of the environment (air, water, food pollution) on health is a major concern in contemporary society. Unfortunately, there are relatively few objective epidemiological data on this subject and their accuracy is limited. Risks are often not quantified, whereas in public health the quantitative assessment of the various risks and benefits must provide the bases for a global strategy. Actual risks should be distinguished from putative risks and, when the risks are putative, an effort should be made to ascertain the upper and lower limits of the risk. The validity of a linear no threshold relationship for assessing putative risks should be discussed and, whenever appropriate, other relationships should be considered. Since emotional reactions often pervade environmental issues, which in turn are exploited for political or commercial reasons, it is not surprising that any statement or action may provoke violent debate. It is serious to underestimate the importance of a risk, since appropriate measures may not be put in place. However, it is equally serious to overestimate it because this can provoke unjustified fears, a pervasive unease, and a rejection of certain technologies, even to the point of discrediting science. It can lead therefore to a questioning of progress by instilling fears about any innovation, as well as facilitating the manipulation of public opinion for financial or ideological reasons, and finally to distortions in budget allocations and public health actions. Confronted with this situation, the Academy's role should be threefold. a) Whenever necessary, point out the need for an increase in appropriate fundamental research. When epidemiological data are uncertain, analyse the cause of these uncertainties and advocate appropriate development in statistical methodologies and epidemiological research, which could ascertain the upper limit of the putative risk. The lack of knowledge often results in public anxiety; this reaction should be investigated and psychosociological research must be encouraged and supported. b) Inform the scientific community and the public; fight against misinformation and sensationalism in the news, and take advantage of the Internet to this end. Encourage openness and transparency in the preparation of scientific reports and dialogue with the stakeholders. c) Better define the role and the place of experts, ensure their independence, monitor their competence and make sure they represent the various fields involved. When reports are conflicting, the Academy should be ready to organize a forum for analysing the roots of these disagreements and to delineate the limits of the uncertainties.     

Defining risk: Normative considerations

The public thinks about (i.e., defines) environmental human health risks in different terms than the “experts.”; And because the manner in which we conceive of risk goes a long way in determining how risk management is conceived and carried out, any definition of risk has important normative elements. I argue that environmental policy based on the public's conception of risk fails to adequately protect fundamental human rights to health and liberty, by taking undue account of certain psychological factors that enter into the public's perception of risk. A survey of some of these factors is offered in an attempt to determine their policy relevance. The traditional scientific conception of risk, although not adequate to entirely define risk policy, serves as an important anchor for the protection of these rights by focusing on the probability or number of adverse health effects.     

Response to Vogelstein: How the 2012 AAP Task Force on circumcision went wrong

Vogelstein cautions medical organizations against jumping into the fray of controversial issues, yet proffers the 2012 American Academy of Pediatrics' Task Force policy position on infant male circumcision as ‘an appropriate use of position‐statements.’ Only a scratch below the surface of this policy statement uncovers the Task Force's failure to consider Vogelstein's many caveats. The Task Force supported the cultural practice by putting undeserved emphasis on questionable scientific data, while ignoring or underplaying the importance of valid contrary scientific data. Without any effort to quantitatively assess the risk/benefit balance, the Task Force concluded the benefits of circumcision outweighed the risks, while acknowledging that the incidence of risks was unknown. This Task Force differed from other Academy policy‐forming panels by ignoring the Academy's standard quality measures and by not appointing members with extensive research experience, extensive publications, or recognized expertise directly related to this topic. Despite nearly 100 publications available at the time addressing the substantial ethical issues associated with infant male circumcision, the Task Force chose to ignore the ethical controversy. They merely stated, with minimal justification, the opinion of one of the Task Force members that the practice of infant male circumcision is morally permissible. The release of the report has fostered an explosion of academic discussion on the ethics of infant male circumcision with a number of national medical organizations now decrying the practice as a human rights violation.     

EMF recommendations specific for children?

When discussing health risks for children due to electromagnetic fields it is crucial to translate scientific knowledge both into adequate protection and precautionary measures for the general public and, more particularly into specific recommendations for children. It is often aimed at influencing health-related attitudes and behaviour by means of information about health affecting behaviour, health risk factors, and health promoting possibilities. Children have to be treated differently from adults in addressing their ability and willingness to modify behaviour and their competence to comprehend cognitively the sense of behavioural recommendations. Research has shown that adults can be motivated to adjust their own behaviour in order to protect their children or to be role models for their children. Hence one way to modify children’s behaviour is to address the parents and care persons. Generally education in the family, the social environment and in peer groups, nursery school and at school plays an important role in forming and influencing individual behaviour. The age of the target group has also to be taken into consideration.An important question is how to deal with scientific uncertainties when expressing EMF recommendations for children. Accentuating scientific uncertainties may under certain circumstances raise risk awareness. This can be an intended effect. But the expression of scientific uncertainties can also lead to unintended consequences in parent’s behaviour or even senseless dealing with the respective EMF source.The paper points out relevant aspects of risk communication regarding EMF and children and suggests how recommendations for children might be designed.     

Shared Cultural History as a Predictor of Political and Economic Changes among Nation States

Political and economic risks arise from social phenomena that spread within and across countries. Regime changes, protest movements, and stock market and default shocks can have ramifications across the globe. Quantitative models have made great strides at predicting these events in recent decades but incorporate few explicitly measured cultural variables. However, in recent years cultural evolutionary theory has emerged as a major paradigm to understand the inheritance and diffusion of human cultural variation. Here, we combine these two strands of research by proposing that measures of socio-linguistic affiliation derived from language phylogenies track variation in cultural norms that influence how political and economic changes diffuse across the globe. First, we show that changes over time in a country’s democratic or autocratic character correlate with simultaneous changes among their socio-linguistic affiliations more than with changes of spatially proximate countries. Second, we find that models of changes in sovereign default status favor including socio-linguistic affiliations in addition to spatial data. These findings suggest that better measurement of cultural networks could be profoundly useful to policy makers who wish to diversify commercial, social, and other forms of investment across political and economic risks on an international scale.     

Types of Integration in Risk Assessment and Management,And Why They Are Needed

Risk-based decision making requires that the decision makers and stakeholders are informed of all risks that are potentially significant and relevant to the decision. The International Programme on Chemical Safety of the World Health Organization has developed a framework for integrating the assessment of human health and ecological risks. However, other types of integration are needed to support particular environmental decisions. They are integration of exposure and effects, of multiple chemicals and other hazardous agents, of multiple routes of exposure, of multiple endpoints, multiple receptors, multiple spatial and temporal scales, a product's life cycle, management alternatives, and socioeconomics with risk assessment. Inclusion of all these factors in an integrated assessment could lead to paralysis by analysis. Therefore, it is important that assessors be cognizant of the decision process and that decision makers and those who will influence the decision (stakeholders) be involved in planning the assessment to ensure that the degree of integration is necessary and sufficient.     

Effectively Communicating the Uncertainties Surrounding Ebola Virus Transmission

The current Ebola virus outbreak has highlighted the uncertainties surrounding many aspects of Ebola virus virology, including routes of transmission. The scientific community played a leading role during the outbreak—potentially, the largest of its kind—as many of the questions surrounding ebolaviruses have only been interrogated in the laboratory. Scientists provided an invaluable resource for clinicians, public health officials, policy makers, and the lay public in understanding the progress of Ebola virus disease and the continuing outbreak. Not all of the scientific communication, however, was accurate or effective. There were multiple instances of published articles during the height of the outbreak containing potentially misleading scientific language that spurred media overreaction and potentially jeopardized preparedness and policy decisions at critical points. Here, we use articles declaring the potential for airborne transmission of Ebola virus as a case study in the inaccurate reporting of basic science, and we provide recommendations for improving the communication about unknown aspects of disease during public health crises.     

Breast milk donation after neonatal death in Australia: a report

Lactation and breast milk can hold great value and meaning for grieving mothers who have experienced a recent death of an infant. Donation to a human milk bank (HMB) as an alternative to discarding breast milk is one means of respecting the value of breast milk. There is little research, national policy discussion, or organizational representation in Australia on the subject of breast milk donation after infant death. On 29 November 2013 the Mercy Hospital for Women in Melbourne, Australia hosted Australia’s first National Stakeholder Meeting (NSM) on the topic of milk donation after neonatal death. The NSM drew together representatives from Australian HMBs, neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) currently using donor human milk, and Australia’s chief NICU parent support organization. The NSM was video-recorded and transcribed, and analyzed thematically by researchers. This article reports the seven dominant themes discussed by stakeholders during the NSM: the spectrum of women’s lactation and donation experiences after infant death; the roles of the HMB and NICU in meeting the needs of the bereaved donor; how bereaved mothers’ lactation autonomy may interface with a HMB’s donation guidelines; how milk donation may be discussed with bereaved mothers; the variation between four categories of milk donation after neonatal death; the impact of limited resources and few HMBs on providing donation programs for bereaved mothers in Australia. This article provides evidence from researchers and practitioners that can assist HMB staff in refining their bank’s policy on milk donation after infant death, and provides national policy makers with key considerations to support lactation, human milk banking, and bereavement services nation-wide.     

Multidisciplinary Research: Strategies for Assessing Chemical Mixtures to Reduce Risk of Exposure and Disease

The Precautionary Principle is founded on the use of comprehensive, coordinated research to protect human health in the face of uncertain risks. Research directed at key data gaps may significantly reduce the uncertainty underlying the complexities of assessing risk to mixtures. The National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS) has taken a leadership rôle in building the scientific infrastructure to address these uncertainties. The challenge is to incorporate the objectives as defined by the Precautionary Principle with the knowledge gained in understanding the multifactorial nature of gene-environment interactions. Through efforts such as the National Center for Toxicogenomics, the National Toxicology Program, and the Superfund Basic Research Program, NIEHS is translating research findings into public health prevention strategies using a 3-pronged approach: (1) identify/evaluate key deviations from additivity for mixtures; (2) develop/apply/link advanced technologies and bioinformatics to quantitative tools for an integrated science-based approach to chemical mixtures; (3) translate/disseminate these technologies into useable, practical means to reduce exposure and the risk of disease. Preventing adverse health effects from environmental exposures requires translation of research findings to affected communities and must include a high level of public involvement. Integrating these approaches are necessary to advance understanding of the health relevance of exposure to mixtures.     

Rationale for systematic reviews.

Systematic literature reviews including meta-analyses are invaluable scientific activities. The rationale for such reviews is well established. Health care providers, researchers, and policy makers are inundated with unmanageable amounts of information; they need systematic reviews to efficiently integrate existing information and provide data for rational decision making. Systematic reviews establish whether scientific findings are consistent and can be generalised across populations, settings, and treatment variations, or whether findings vary significantly by particular subsets. Meta-analyses in particular can increase power and precision of estimates of treatment effects and exposure risks. Finally, explicit methods used in systematic reviews limit bias and, hopefully, will improve reliability and accuracy of conclusions.     

A pragmatic cluster randomised trial evaluating three implementation interventions

Background

One of the most consistent findings from clinical and health services research is the failure to translate research into practice and policy. As a result of these evidence-practice and policy gaps, patients fail to benefit optimally from advances in healthcare and are exposed to unnecessary risks of iatrogenic harms, and healthcare systems are exposed to unnecessary expenditure resulting in significant opportunity costs. Over the last decade, there has been increasing international policy and research attention on how to reduce the evidence-practice and policy gap. In this paper, we summarise the current concepts and evidence to guide knowledge translation activities, defined as T2 research (the translation of new clinical knowledge into improved health). We structure the article around five key questions: what should be transferred; to whom should research knowledge be transferred; by whom should research knowledge be transferred; how should research knowledge be transferred; and, with what effect should research knowledge be transferred?

Discussion

We suggest that the basic unit of knowledge translation should usually be up-to-date systematic reviews or other syntheses of research findings. Knowledge translators need to identify the key messages for different target audiences and to fashion these in language and knowledge translation products that are easily assimilated by different audiences. The relative importance of knowledge translation to different target audiences will vary by the type of research and appropriate endpoints of knowledge translation may vary across different stakeholder groups. There are a large number of planned knowledge translation models, derived from different disciplinary, contextual (i.e., setting), and target audience viewpoints. Most of these suggest that planned knowledge translation for healthcare professionals and consumers is more likely to be successful if the choice of knowledge translation strategy is informed by an assessment of the likely barriers and facilitators. Although our evidence on the likely effectiveness of different strategies to overcome specific barriers remains incomplete, there is a range of informative systematic reviews of interventions aimed at healthcare professionals and consumers (i.e., patients, family members, and informal carers) and of factors important to research use by policy makers.

Summary

There is a substantial (if incomplete) evidence base to guide choice of knowledge translation activities targeting healthcare professionals and consumers. The evidence base on the effects of different knowledge translation approaches targeting healthcare policy makers and senior managers is much weaker but there are a profusion of innovative approaches that warrant further evaluation.     

Science,Politics and Policy: How Michiganders think about the Risks Facing the Great Lakes

The Great Lakes region is an important ecological asset for the United States, yet studies show that several environmental risks threaten its viability. As a result, it is important to respond to these risks with effective policies. When and how policy is implemented often depends on public opinion and perceptions; yet, we understand little about how individuals from the Great Lakes region construct opinions about the threats facing the lakes. We seek to understand how individuals from the state of Michigan form opinions on three risks to the lakes: invasive Asian carp, climate change, and offshore drilling. To do this, we evaluate the utility of two dominant models of environmental opinion formation: trust and deference to scientific authority, and partisan bias and motivated reasoning. We find that when issues have been politicized, opinion is greatly influenced by political factors like partisanship but that trust and deference as well as underlying environmental attitudes play a more important role for issues that have not been politicized. We discuss the implications of these findings in terms of policy and communication in Michigan, arguing that if we want Michiganders to support policy consistent with science, they must view risk in ways that are consistent with scientific consensus. For that to happen, advocates and policy makers must focus on reducing the political rhetoric around these threats, developing communication that taps into underlying trust and deference to science, and using underlying attitudes about the role of government in environmental protection to promote environmental policy.     

Using LCA to examine greenhouse gas abatement policy

The site-generic approach currently adopted by the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology introduces uncertainties into the impact assessment phase of an LCA study. These uncertainties are greatest for localised and short-lived problems but are less significant for long lasting, cumulative environmental effects. Indeed, the reliability of LCA results is high for problems that manifest at a global scale. Nevertheless, even though these results are considered accurate, it is still often unclear as to their relevance in terms of policy development and decision-making. Therefore, this paper demonstrates how LCA can be used to determine the efficacy of policies aimed at reducing a product system’s contribution to global environmental problems. We accomplish this aim by presenting a case study that evaluates the greenhouse gas contributions of each stage in the life cycle of containerboard packaging and the potential impact on emissions of various policy options available to decision makers. Our analysis showed that in general the most useful strategy was to recycle the used packaging. However, our analysis also indicated that when measures are taken to eliminate sources of methane emissions and encourage the use of plantation timber then recycling is no longer beneficial from a greenhouse perspective. This is because the process energy required in the form of gas and electricity is substantially greater for containerboard manufactured from recycled material than it is for virgin fibre.     

Nitrogen Cycles: Past, Present, and Future

This paper contrasts the natural and anthropogenic controls on the conversion of unreactive N₂ to more reactive forms of nitrogen (Nr). A variety of data sets are used to construct global N budgets for 1860 and the early 1990s and to make projections for the global N budget in 2050. Regional N budgets for Asia, North America, and other major regions for the early 1990s, as well as the marine N budget, are presented to Highlight the dominant fluxes of nitrogen in each region. Important findings are that human activities increasingly dominate the N budget at the global and at most regional scales, the terrestrial and open ocean N budgets are essentially disconnected, and the fixed forms of N are accumulating in most environmental reservoirs. The largest uncertainties in our understanding of the N budget at most scales are the rates of natural biological nitrogen fixation, the amount of Nr storage in most environmental reservoirs, and the production rates of N₂ by denitrification.