A Semi-Markovian Model for Cell Survival after Irradiation

To study the behaviour of a living cell exposed to radiations we investigate a stochastic model, employing for its analysis the theory of semi-Markov and Markov renewal processes. Four states of the cell namely, normal state, damaged state 1, damaged state 2 and altered state are defined and various characteristics of interest pertaining to the cell behaviour are studied.     

The importance of 'memory' in statistical models for animal feeding behaviour

We investigate models for animal feeding behaviour, with the aim of improving understanding of how animals organise their behaviour in the short term. We consider three classes of model: hidden Markov, latent Gaussian and semi-Markov. Each can predict the typical 'clustered' feeding behaviour that is generally observed, however they differ in the extent to which 'memory' of previous behaviour is allowed to affect future behaviour. The hidden Markov model has 'lack of memory', the current behavioural state being dependent on the previous state only. The latent Gaussian model assumes feeding/non-feeding periods to occur by the thresholding of an underlying continuous variable, thereby incorporating some 'short-term memory'. The semi-Markov model, by taking into account the duration of time spent in the previous state, can be said to incorporate 'longer-term memory'. We fit each of these models to a dataset of cow feeding behaviour. We find the semi-Markov model (longer-term memory) to have the best fit to the data and the hidden Markov model (lack of memory) the worst. We argue that in view of effects of satiety on short-term feeding behaviour of animal species in general, biologically suitable models should allow 'memory' to play a role. We conclude that our findings are equally relevant for the analysis of other types of short-term behaviour that are governed by satiety-like principles.     

A queueing model for chronic recurrent conditions under panel observation

In many chronic conditions, subjects alternate between an active and an inactive state, and sojourns into the active state may involve multiple lesions, infections, or other recurrences with different times of onset and resolution. We present a biologically interpretable model of such chronic recurrent conditions based on a queueing process. The model has a birth-death process describing recurrences and a semi-Markov process describing the alternation between active and inactive states, and can be fit to panel data that provide only a binary assessment of the active or inactive state at a series of discrete time points using a hidden Markov approach. We accommodate individual heterogeneity and covariates using a random effects model, and simulate the posterior distribution of unknowns using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Application to a clinical trial of genital herpes shows how the method can characterize the biology of the disease and estimate treatment efficacy.     

On some formulas in a partnership model from the perspective of a semi-Markov process

Many deterministic models of sexually transmitted diseases, as well as population models in general, contain elements of stochastic or statistical reasoning. An example of such a model is that of Dietz and Hadeler (1988) concerning sexually transmitted diseases in which there is partnership formation and dissolution. Among the interesting formulas in this paper, which enter into the analysis of the model, are those for the expected number of partners a male or female has during a lifetime. To a probabilist such formulas suggest the possibility that some stochastic process may be constructed so as to yield these formulas as well as others that may be of interest. The principal purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that such a stochastic process does indeed exist in the form of a three state semi-Markov process in continuous time with stationary laws of evolution and with a one-step density matrix determined by four parameters which were interpreted as constant latent risk functions in the classical theory of competing risks. This construction of a semi-Markov process not only provides a framework for the systematic derivation of the formulas of Dietz and Hadeler but also suggests pathways,for extensions to the age-dependent case.This research was partially supported by NATO Grant D.890350     

A two compartment model for cell survival after irradiation with ionizing radiation

A theory of cell survival after irradiation has been developed, considering the cell as composed of two compartments with different sensitivities and taking into account recovery phenomena. Expressions are obtained for the probabilities that the cell will be in a survival state or damaged state or will function with reduced efficiency.     

Semi-Markov Model and Its Application

In this paper, a numerical procedure based on the theory of semi-Markov process is presented to study the prognosis of the cancer of cervix. Data is used to illustrate the predictive ability of the model.     

On the stochastic theory of compartments: A semi-Markov approach for the analysis of theK-compartmental systems

In this paper a semi-Markov process approach is developed to analyse stochastic compartmental systems using straightforward probabilistic arguments. Explicit expressions for several characteristics of thek-compartmental systems with a Poisson process input are derived and various models found in the literature arising from biological applications are generalised here using the semi-Markov process technique.     

Accumulation of defective mitochondria through delayed degradation of damaged organelles and its possible role in the ageing of post-mitotic and dividing cells

The mitochondrial theory of ageing proposes that an accumulation of defective mitochondria is a major contributor to the cellular deterioration that underlies the ageing process. The plausibility of the mitochondrial theory depends critically upon the population dynamics of intact and mutant mitochondria in different cell types. Earlier work suggested that mutant mitochondria might have a replication advantage but failed to account for the fact that mutants accumulate faster in post-mitotic than in dividing cells. We describe a new mathematical model that allows for damaged mitochondria to replicate more slowly, which accommodates experimental evidence of impaired energy generation and a reduced proton gradient in defective mitochondria. However, this is compensated for by a slower degradation rate of damaged mitochondria than intact ones, as suggested by de Grey (1997), which gives damaged mitochondria a selective advantage and leads to a clonal expansion of damaged mitochondria. This theoretical result is important because it agrees with evidence that, during ageing, single muscle fibres are taken over by one or only a few types of mtDNA mutants. The model also shows that cell division can rejuvenate and stabilize the mitochondrial population, consistent with data that post-mitotic tissues accumulate mitochondrial damage faster than mitotically active tissues.     

The mitochondrial theory of aging

Mitochondria are not only the main source of energy for most eukaryotic cells, but also the main source of free radicals. These reactive molecules can damage all components of a cell such as membranes, proteins and DNA. Therefore they have long been suspected to be involved in the biological aging process. The fact that mitochondria posses their own genetic material (mtDNA) and that they only have a limited arsenal of DNA repair processes makes them one of the prime targets for reactive oxygen species. The idea that genetically damaged mitochondria accumulate with time and are causally responsible for the aging phenotype via a disturbed energy budget is at the core of the so called mitochondrial theory of aging. In recent years this idea has gained impetus from the discovery of mitochondrial diseases and mtDNA deletions in old organisms. However, there are still many open questions regarding the mechanism of the accumulation of these deletions and their physiological relevance. This review is therefore intended to give an overview of the current state of the mitochondrial theory of aging and to discuss some recent experimental findings.     

Single ion channel models incorporating aggregation and time interval omission.

We present a general theoretical framework, incorporating both aggregation of states into classes and time interval omission, for stochastic modeling of the dynamic aspects of single channel behavior. Our semi-Markov models subsume the standard continuous-time Markov models, diffusion models and fractal models. In particular our models allow for quite general distributions of state sojourn times and arbitrary correlations between successive sojourn times. Another key feature is the invariance of our framework with respect to time interval omission: that is, properties of the aggregated process incorporating time interval omission can be derived directly from corresponding properties of the process without it. Even in the special case when the underlying process is Markov, this leads to considerable clarification of the effects of time interval omission. Among the properties considered are equilibrium behavior, sojourn time distributions and their moments, and auto-correlation and cross-correlation functions. The theory is motivated by ion channel mechanisms drawn from the literature, and illustrated by numerical examples based on these.     

A Systematic Model Specification Procedure for an Illness-Death Model without Recovery

Multi-state models are a flexible tool for analyzing complex time-to-event problems with multiple endpoints. Compared to the Cox regression model with a single endpoint or a summarizing composite endpoint, they can provide a more detailed insight into the disease process. Furthermore, prognosis can be improved by including information from intermediate events occurring during the course of the disease. Different model variants, options and additional assumptions provide many possibilities, but at the same time complicate the implementation of multi-state techniques. So far, no guiding literature is available to specify a multi-state model systematically. The objective of this work was to set up a general specification procedure for an illness-death model that optimizes the model fit and predictive accuracy by stepwise reduction of the model. As an application example, we reanalyzed data from an observational study of 434 ovarian cancer patients with progression as intermediate and death as absorbing state. The technique is described in general terms and can be applied to other illness-death models without recovery. The clock-reset approach was used, implicating that the time was reset to zero after progression. The non-homogeneous semi-Markov characteristic stated that the present time as well as the time between surgery and progression influenced survival after progression. Covariate effects on transitions were estimated and proportionality of transition baseline hazards was tested. The finally developed model optimized the accuracy of predictions for two simulated patients. This stepwise procedure yields parsimonious but targeted multi-state models with well interpretable coefficients and optimized predictive ability, even for smaller data sets.     

Non-Homogeneous Gibbs Process Models for Forestry — A Case Study

Forestry statistics needs realistic models for non-homogeneously distributed trees in forests. For elder trees, non-homogeneous Poisson or Cox processes are not realistic models. Instead, non-homogeneous Gibbs processes are suggested, which are described by a fixed pair potential describing the short-range interaction of trees and a location dependent intensity function describing long-range variation of tree density. The application of this model is demonstrated for a hickory forest in North Carolina and an artificial forest stand.     

桃树修剪分枝模式的模拟

在不同修剪手法下,对栽培桃树(Prunuspersica(L.)Batsch)不同母枝上的分枝模式进行了比较研究.从分枝模式来看:修剪后的母枝基本由3个不同的区域组成,基部是不萌发的潜伏芽形成的未分枝区域;中部是延迟分枝和多次分枝组成的分枝区域(主要的枝条类型有短枝、长枝和多次枝);顶部是被剪除的部分.我们通过隐式半马尔可夫模型来模拟这一分枝模式,主要是定量描述1次枝和多次枝在母枝上的数量及其分布状况.在上述模型中,未分枝区、延迟分枝区和多次分枝区称为瞬时态,被剪除的部分称为吸收态.模拟的结果与观察的结果进行对比后发现,两者具有很好的一致性.这说明隐式半马尔可夫模型是模拟植物分枝过程的一种有效方法,尽管隐式半马尔可夫链模型只是一个描述性的模型,但仍能对其所描述的生物现象进行解释,在预测修剪手法对母枝分枝模式影响方面比传统的方法具有明显的优势.本研究结果是建立三维虚拟桃树树冠分枝结构的基础.     

An Indicator to Evaluate the Thermodynamic Maturity of Industrial Process Units in Industrial Ecology

The article suggests a measure to evaluate the thermodynamic maturity of industrial systems at the level of single process units. The measure can be quantified with reasonable confidence on the basis of entropy production as defined by irreversible thermodynamics theory. It quantifies, for one process unit, the distance between its actual state of operation and its state with minimum entropy production or optimum exergy efficiency, when the two states are constrained with a fixed production capacity of the process unit. We suggest that the minimum entropy production state is a mature state, or that processes that operate at this state are mature. We propose to call the measure "the thermodynamic maturity indicator" (π), and we define it as the ratio between the minimum entropy production and the actual entropy production. We calculated π on the basis of literature data for some examples of industrial process units in the chemical and process industry (i.e., heat exchanger, chemical reactor, distillation column, and paper drying machine). The proposed thermodynamic measure should be of interest for industrial ecology because it emerges from the entropy production rate, a dynamic function that can be optimized and used to understand the thermodynamic limit to improving the exergy efficiency of industrial processes. Although not a tool for replacing one process with another or comparing one technology to another, π may be used to assess actual operation states of single process units in industrial ecology.     

桃树修剪分枝模式的模拟

在不同修剪手法下,对栽培桃树(Prunuspersica(L.)Batsch)不同母枝上的分枝模式进行了比较研究。从分枝模式来看修剪后的母枝基本由3个不同的区域组成,基部是不萌发的潜伏芽形成的未分枝区域;中部是延迟分枝和多次分枝组成的分枝区域(主要的枝条类型有短枝、长枝和多次枝);顶部是被剪除的部分。我们通过隐式半马尔可夫模型来模拟这一分枝模式,主要是定量描述1次枝和多次枝在母枝上的数量及其分布状况。在上述模型中,未分枝区、延迟分枝区和多次分枝区称为瞬时态,被剪除的部分称为吸收态。模拟的结果与观察的结果进行对比后发现,两者具有很好的一致性。这说明隐式半马尔可夫模型是模拟植物分枝过程的一种有效方法,尽管隐式半马尔可夫链模型只是一个描述性的模型,但仍能对其所描述的生物现象进行解释,在预测修剪手法对母枝分枝模式影响方面比传统的方法具有明显的优势。本研究结果是建立三维虚拟桃树树冠分枝结构的基础。     

Foraging success under uncertainty: search tradeoffs and optimal space use

Understanding the structural complexity and the main drivers of animal search behaviour is pivotal to foraging ecology. Yet, the role of uncertainty as a generative mechanism of movement patterns is poorly understood. Novel insights from search theory suggest that organisms should collect and assess new information from the environment by producing complex exploratory strategies. Based on an extension of the first passage time theory, and using simple equations and simulations, we unveil the elementary heuristics behind search behaviour. In particular, we show that normal diffusion is not enough for determining optimal exploratory behaviour but anomalous diffusion is required. Searching organisms go through two critical sequential phases (approach and detection) and experience fundamental search tradeoffs that may limit their encounter rates. Using experimental data, we show that biological search includes elements not fully considered in contemporary physical search theory. In particular, the need to consider search movement as a non‐stationary process that brings the organism from one informational state to another. For example, the transition from remaining in an area to departing from it may occur through an exploratory state where cognitive search is challenged. Therefore, a more comprehensive view of foraging ecology requires including current perspectives about movement under uncertainty.     

Lifesaving explains mortality decline with time

Mortality rates of human populations in developed countries are declining with time. We show that this effect can be explained via a 'lifesaving' methodology. Our approach is based on considering a non-homogeneous Poisson process of potentially harmful events. Each of these events can be 'cured' with a given probability or can result in a termination of the Poisson process (death) with a complementary probability. A lifesaving ratio, defining the corresponding relative increase in life expectancy for homogeneous and heterogeneous populations is analyzed. Some generalizations are discussed. Several simple examples are considered.     

Modelling of congenital nystagmus waveforms produced by saccadic system abnormalities

 Models of the mechanisms of normal eye movements are typically described in terms of the block diagrams which are used in control theory. An alternative approach to understanding the mechanisms of normal eye movements involves describing the eye movement behaviour in terms of smooth changes in state variables. The latter approach captures the burst cell firing against motor error (difference between target gaze angle and current gaze angle) phase plane behaviour which is found experimentally and facilitates the modelling of variations in burst cell behaviour. A novel explanation of several types of congenital nystagmus waveforms is given in terms of a saccadic termination abnormality. Received: 12 May 1999 / Accepted in revised form: 19 November 1999     

密度分布非均匀的害虫和天敌生态模型的平衡解的稳定性

讨论一类密度分布非均匀的害虫和天敌生态模型平衡解的稳定性，得到该问题非负平衡解的存在性、渐适性和相应吸引区域。     

Evidence for cell generation controlled proliferation in the small intestinal crypt

In this paper we discuss the hypothesis that cell proliferation is controlled by the number of generations after leaving an 'eternal' stem cell. The theory is based on a simulation of the kinetic behaviour of cells in the intestinal crypts. There is evidence of three, four and five generations of cells which are allowed to enter mitosis in the lower and upper part of the normal intestinal tract, and in some disease states, respectively. We suggest an internal proliferation control: some kind of knowledge that cells carry from generation to generation. It is an open question what sets and changes the generation counter: internal genetic information or external influences such as growth factors or chalones. The geometric shape of the epithelial tissue in the intestinal tract can be understood as the steady state of a highly dynamic process. Age and death are determined from the beginning; cell-cell interaction or communication is not necessary and can be neglected. Our theory will be illustrated using the intestinal crypts as they are easily accessible, of a simple structure and completely described in the literature.