Properties of current influenza A (H1N1) virus strains and the characteristics of the epidemics they induce

Three epidemics of influenza A (H1N1) occurring in 1977, 1979 and 1981 were studied. These epidemics were found to be gradually dying down, which was manifested by progressively decreasing morbidity rate, the frequency and intensity of seroconversions, as well as by a decrease in the duration of the epidemic period. Changes in the biological properties of influenza A (H1N1) virus were accompanied by changes in its antigenic properties. The drift of neuraminidase in the influenza A (H1N1) virus of 1981 towards increased relationship with neuraminidase in the virus of 1952 was observed, while hemagglutinin in the strains of each of these two groups retained its individual character.     

Impact of the Infection Period Distribution on the Epidemic Spread in a Metapopulation Model

Epidemic models usually rely on the assumption of exponentially distributed sojourn times in infectious states. This is sometimes an acceptable approximation, but it is generally not realistic and it may influence the epidemic dynamics as it has already been shown in one population. Here, we explore the consequences of choosing constant or gamma-distributed infectious periods in a metapopulation context. For two coupled populations, we show that the probability of generating no secondary infections is the largest for most parameter values if the infectious period follows an exponential distribution, and we identify special cases where, inversely, the infection is more prone to extinction in early phases for constant infection durations. The impact of the infection duration distribution on the epidemic dynamics of many connected populations is studied by simulation and sensitivity analysis, taking into account the potential interactions with other factors. The analysis based on the average nonextinct epidemic trajectories shows that their sensitivity to the assumption on the infectious period distribution mostly depends on , the mean infection duration and the network structure. This study shows that the effect of assuming exponential distribution for infection periods instead of more realistic distributions varies with respect to the output of interest and to other factors. Ultimately it highlights the risk of misleading recommendations based on modelling results when models including exponential infection durations are used for practical purposes.     

The types of the epidemic manifestations of cholera on the territory of the USSR

On the basis of the analysis of cholera cases for the period of 1965-1989 three main main types of epidemic manifestations of this infection on the territory of the USSR were determined with due attention to the complex of data, characterizing the intensity and types of the epidemic process, the danger of the outbreak and spread of cholera. This made it possible to differentiate and decrease the complex of prophylactic measures, depending on the type of the territory.     

The transmission dynamics of the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 in the male homosexual community in the United Kingdom: the influence of changes in sexual behaviour

This paper examines the transmission dynamics of human immune deficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) in the male homosexual population in the U.K. via numerical studies employing a mathematical model representing the principal epidemiological process. The model is based on an assumption of proportionate mixing between different sexual-activity classes (defined by the rate of sexual partner change per unit of time) and incorporates heterogeneity in sexual activity, distributed infection and incubation periods and the recruitment of susceptibles to the sexually active population. The sensitivity of model predictions to various assumptions and parameter assignments is examined. Numerical studies of model behaviour focus on the influence of changes in the magnitudes of the transmission parameters, associated with three periods of infectiousness during the incubation period of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), on the magnitude and duration of the epidemic and on the level of the endemic equilibrium state. Predicted temporal trends in the incidence of AIDS are shown to be particularly sensitive to changes in the intensities and durations of the stages of infectiousness. Most of the paper addresses the influence of changes in sexual behaviour on the magnitude and duration of the epidemic. Numerical simulations show that the manner in which behavioural changes occur and who is influenced by such changes (i.e. infecteds or susceptibles, the sexually active population or new recruits to this population) have a major impact on the future timecourse of the epidemic. The greatest reduction in the incidence of AIDS over the coming decades is induced by changes in the rate of sexual-partner change among the sexually active population, particularly those currently infected. The time periods at which changes in behaviour occur, in relation to the starting point of the epidemic (assumed to be 1979), are also of particular significance to the future pattern of the incidence of disease and infection. Changes in behaviour early on in the timecourse of the epidemic have a much greater impact than equivalent changes at latter time points. On the basis of limited data on the pattern of change in sexual behaviour among the male homosexual community in the U.K., numerical studies of model behaviour tentatively suggest that the epidemic is at, or near to, a period of peak incidence of the disease AIDS. Analyses suggest that, following the peak in incidence, there will be a period of slow decline over many decades provided recent changes in behaviour are maintained in the coming years.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)     

Intraseasonal Dynamics and Dominant Sequences in H3N2 Influenza

Long-term influenza evolution has been well studied, but the patterns of sequence diversity within seasons are less clear. H3N2 influenza genomes sampled from New York State over ten years indicated intraseasonal changes in evolutionary dynamics. Using the mean Hamming distance of a set of amino acid or nucleotide sequences as an indicator of its diversity, we found that influenza sequence diversity was significantly higher during the early epidemic period than later in the influenza season. Diversity was lowest during the peak of the epidemic, most likely due to the high prevalence of a single dominant amino acid sequence or very few dominant sequences during the peak epidemic period, corresponding with rapid expansion of the viral population. The frequency and duration of dominant sequences varied by influenza protein, but all proteins had an abundance of one distinct sequence during the peak epidemic period. In New York State from 1995 to 2005, high sequence diversity during the early epidemic suggested that seasonal antigenic drift could have occurred primarily in this period, followed by a clonal expansion of typically one clade during the peak of the epidemic, possibly indicating a shift to neutral drift or purifying selection.     

Significance of the heterogeneity of respiratory syncytial viral populations in the development of the epidemic process

The manifestations of the epidemic process in respiratory syncytial (RS) virus infection induced by the strains of the infective agent, differing in their capacity for reproduction at 39 degrees and 37 degrees C and in their sensitivity to antibodies, were compared. The observation of children in a group (about 80 children simultaneously) with the systematic serological and virological examination of sick and healthy children was the main method in this investigation. The circulation of RS viruses with greater capacity for reproduction at 39 degrees and 37 degrees C and lesser sensitivity to antibodies, i.e. viruses with greater virulence, was accompanied by the increased intensity of manifestations of the epidemic process. An increase in the heterogeneity of RS virus populations isolated at the same period of observation was accompanied by the intensification of the epidemic process, which was manifested by increased morbidity rate and a higher level of contamination in children, an increase in the incidence of outbreaks and in the frequency of RS virus reinfection.     

Changes in the etiologic structure of Sonne shigellosis in its multiyear dynamics

The dynamics of Sonne dysentery morbidity in connection with changes in the structure of S. sonnei circulating among the population of Leningrad for the period of 1959-1984 was studied. Considering such sign as the leading fermentovar, three smaller periods were established in this stretch of time. Changes in the structure of circulating shigellae were accompanied by changes in the intensity and direction of tendencies or decrease in the manifest and asymptomatic forms of infection, as well as in annual morbidity levels and seasonal rises. A slow decrease in morbidity, which started in 1974, occurs in the presence of the predominant circulation of S. sonnei, fermentovar II, among the population; this fermentovar showed greater virulence and immunogenicity than other biovars. One of the decisive moments characterizing the dynamics of the epidemic process of Sonne dysentery is the intensity of the circulation of shigellae in the S-form, and the intensity of the population immunity of the host, linked with this fact, is subject to phasic fluctuations during each annual epidemic cycle.     

THE TEMPORAL PERCEPTION OF MENTHOL1

Although menthol is a common ingredient in pharmaceutical and food products, its sensory properties have not been studied extensively. The objective of this study was to describe and compare the temporal properties of l- and d-menthol. The cooling, burning, and bitterness of two menthol isomers (l-, d-) each at 0.01, 0.02, 0.04, 0.08% (w/v) in aqueous solution were evaluated by 11 trained panelists using time-intensity methodology. The intensity of all three attributes were evaluated continuously from introduction of the sample into the mouth, through expectoration at 10 s, until the termination of the sensation. The l-menthol samples had a greater maximum intensity and longer total duration of cooling and burning sensations than the d-menthol samples. In addition, maximum intensity and total duration of cooling and burn increased with concentration. In contrast, the total duration of the burning sensation was only dependent upon concentration of the l-isomer. Increasing menthol concentration significantly increased maximum intensity and total duration of bitterness for both isomers.     

Epidemiological determinants of the pattern and magnitude of the vCJD epidemic in Great Britain.

Understanding the epidemiology and aetiology of new-variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob (vCJD) disease in humans has become increasingly important given the scientific evidence linking it to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in cattle and hence the wide exposure of the population of Great Britain (GB) to potentially infectious tissue. The recent analysis undertaken to determine the risk to the population from dorsal route ganglia illustrated the danger in presenting point estimates rather than ranges of scenarios in the face of uncertainty. We present a mathematical template that relates the past pattern of the BSE epidemic in cattle to the future course of any vCJD epidemic in humans, and use extensive scenario analysis to explore the wide range of possible outcomes given the uncertainty in epidemiological determinants. We demonstrate that the average number of humans infected by one infectious bovine and the incubation period distribution are the two epidemiological factors that have the greatest impact on epidemic size and duration. Using the time-series of the BSE epidemic and the cases seen to date, we show that the minimum length of the incubation period is approximately nine years, and that at least 20% of the cases diagnosed to date were exposed prior to 1986. We also demonstrate that the current age distribution of vCJD cases can only arise if younger people were either exposed to a greater extent, more susceptible to infection, or have shorter incubation periods. Extensive scenario analyses show that given the information currently available, the very high degree of uncertainty in the future size of the epidemic will remain for the next 3-5 years. Furthermore, we demonstrate that this uncertainty is unlikely to be reduced by mass screening for late-stage infection.     

The influence of immune cross-reaction on phase structure in resonant solutions of a multi-strain seasonal SIR model

Resonance in seasonally forced SIR epidemiological models may lead to stable solutions in which the epidemic period is an integer multiple of the forcing period. We examine the influence of immune cross-protection and cross-enhancement on the epidemic phase relationship of resonance solutions in an annually forced two-strain SIR model. Solutions with epidemics of the two strains in-phase commonly occur for wide ranges of cross-reaction intensity. Solutions with epidemics out-of-phase are less common and limited to narrow ranges of cross-reaction intensity. This is broadly as predicted by the two natural periods of the system. The natural period corresponding to out-of-phase solutions is sensitive to changes in the cross-reaction parameter but the natural period corresponding to in-phase solutions is constant. Bifurcation analysis indicates that the stability of in-phase orbits is controlled by pitchfork and period doubling bifurcations while out-of-phase orbits may also be influenced by Andronov-Hopf bifurcations. In order to develop an intuitive understanding of the epidemiological factors governing the occurrence of different solutions we consider how the susceptible, infected and removed components of the system must interact to form a stable solution. This shows that the impact of cross-reaction is moderated by in-phase structures but amplified by out-of-phase structures. Although the average infection rate over long time periods is not affected by phase structure, this analysis indicates that in-phase epidemic patterns are likely to be more consistent and thus allow more effective health care management.     

Evaluating the influence of epidemiological parameters and host ecology on the spread of phocine distemper virus through populations of harbour seals

Background

Outbreaks of phocine distemper virus (PDV) in Europe during 1988 and 2002 were responsible for the death of around 23,000 and 30,000 harbour seals, respectively. These epidemics, particularly the one in 2002, provided an unusual opportunity to estimate epidemic parameters for a wildlife disease. There were marked regional differences in the values of some parameters both within and between epidemics.

Methodology and Principal Findings

We used an individual-based model of seal movement that allowed us to incorporate realistic representations of space, time and animal behaviour into a traditional epidemiological modelling framework. We explored the potential influence of a range of ecological (foraging trip duration, time of epidemic onset, population size) and epidemiological (length of infectious period, contact rate between infectious and susceptible individuals, case mortality) parameters on four readily-measurable epidemic characteristics (number of dead individuals, duration of epidemic, peak mortality date and prevalence) and on the probability that an epidemic would occur in a particular region. We analysed the outputs as if they were the results of a series of virtual experiments, using Generalised Linear Modelling. All six variables had a significant effect on the probability that an epidemic would be recognised as an unusual mortality event by human observers.

Conclusions

Regional and temporal variation in contact rate was the most likely cause of the observed differences between the two epidemics. This variation could be a consequence of differences in the way individuals divide their time between land and sea at different times of the year.     

Significance of epidemiological analysis for the development of epidemiology

The significance of epidemiological analysis for the study of the epidemic process is substantiated. The historical stages of the development of the doctrine on the epidemic process along with the role of epidemiological analysis in social and hygienic monitoring and epidemiological surveillance from the viewpoint of systemic approach are presented. The conclusion has been made on the necessity of the development of the systemic methodology of controlling the epidemic process and the sanitary and epidemiological situation.     

The molecular epidemiological aspects of hiv-infection spreading in Perm region

Retrospective analysis of HIV-infection spreading in Perm region in conjunction with the genetic characterization of viral subtypes circulated on this territory from 1988 (when 1st case of infection was detected) until 2005 was performed. Analysis of epidemic process allowed to determine three periods of its development basing on both epidemic intensity and nature of circulating HIV-1 subtypes. During 1988 - 1996 (first period), when viral population was heterogenous (simultaneous circulation of three HIV-1 subtypes) with multiple routes of transmission, the epidemic process was characterized by low intensity. High incidence of HIV-infection among injection drug users and high homogeneity of circulated HIV-1 variants (98% of isolated variants belonged to HIV-1 subtype A with low level of genetic variability) were characteristics of the second period lasted from 1997 to 2001. Decrease in HIV-infection incidence in 2002-2005 was accompanied by the increase of HIV-1 transmission through heterosexual contacts and continuation of subtype A predominance between isolates. However increase in heterogeneity of viral population during this period, which manifested as increase of env and pol genes polymorphism, was detected.     

Dependence of the evoked potentials of the auditory cortex on the parameters of acoustic stimulus]

Experiments were conducted on 40 rabbits; a study was made of the dependence of the amplitude and the latent period of the auditory evoked potentials on the intensity, duration, accretion front, frequency and the rhythm of the acoustic stimuli (the intervals between them). The intensity of the stimuli, the accretion front and the interstimulus intervals proved to influence the induced potential parameters.     

不同强度与持续时间UV-B辐射对麦长管蚜生长发育和繁殖的影响

【目的】探明高强度和低强度紫外辐射不同持续时间处理对麦长管蚜Sitobion avenae (Fabricius)生长发育和繁殖的影响, 以及强度与持续时间之间的交互作用。【方法】不同强度(0.20 mW/cm², 0.75 mW/cm²)、不同持续时间(3 h, 9 h和15 h)的UV-B处理后, 采用编制特定年龄生命表和测量麦长管蚜体重方法, 统计相对日均体重增长率(mean relative growth rate, MRGR)、生命表种群参数、繁殖参数以及存活率和繁殖率的变化。【结果】生命表数据表明, 在同一辐射持续时间下, 麦长管蚜种群内禀增长率r_m、净增殖率R₀、繁殖力F随紫外强度增加而显著(P<0.05)下降, 短时间内死亡率升高, 繁殖率降低; 在同一紫外强度下, 麦长管蚜的r_m, R₀和F也随处理时间延长而显著降低, 存活率下降最快时期提前, 繁殖率降低; 紫外强度和持续时间两因素的影响具有极显著(P<0.01)的交互作用, 但在短时间(3 h)、低强度(0.20 mW/cm²)的处理中, 麦蚜的r_m, R₀和F却高于无紫外辐射组（对照）。MRGR数据表明, 高强度(0.75 mW/cm²)、长时间(15 h)紫外辐射处理下麦长管蚜MRGR显著降低, 但低强度、相对短时间(3 h和9 h)紫外辐射处理下的MRGR间均无显著性差异。随辐射强度和持续时间增加, 发育为成蚜时有翅蚜所占比例增大。【结论】麦长管蚜的生长发育和繁殖受到紫外UV-B胁迫的影响, 且随着紫外强度和持续时间的不同而产生相应变化, 强度和持续时间影响具有交互效应。     

Effect of pulsed electric fields on the activity of neutral trehalase from beer yeast and RSM analysis

The trehalase activity plays an important role in extraction of trehalose from beer yeast. In this study, the effect of pulsed electric field processing on neutral trehalase activity in beer yeast was investigated. In order to develop and optimize a pulsed electric field (PEF) mathematical model for activating the neutral trehalase, we have investigated three variables, including electric field intensity (10-50 kV/cm), pulse duration (2-10 μs) and liquid-solid ratio (20-50 ml/g) and subsequently optimized them by response surface methodology (RSM). The experimental data were fitted to a second-order polynomial equation and profiled into the corresponding contour plots. Optimal condition obtained by RSM is as follows: electric field intensity 42.13 kV/cm, liquid-solid ratio 30.12 ml/g and pulse duration 5.46 μs. Under these conditions, with the trehalose decreased 8.879 mg/L, the PEF treatment had great effect on activating neutral trehalase in beer yeast cells.     

On a general stochastic epidemic model

A non-Markovian epidemic model is proposed for which a stochastic epidemic threshold theorem, like that by Whittle (1955) for a simpler model, is shown to hold. The threshold theorem can be a useful guide in determining public health measures aimed at preventing major outbreaks of a communicable disease. Bounds are obtained for the mean size of minor epidemics. A parameter of the model, whose value is crucial to applications of these results, is the product of the infection rate and the mean duration of the infectious period. Estimators are suggested for this parameter by identifying martingales associated with counting processes of the epidemic model and by constructing other martingales which can be written as stochastic integrals.     

Meningococcal infection in the Uzbek SSR

The epidemiological characteristics of meningococcal infection in Uzbekistan during the period of 8 years since its last epidemic rise in 1972 is presented. Differences in the intensity of the epidemic process among the urban and rural population due to a considerable isolation of most of the rural populated localities from the district centers and the low population density in the republic have been established. The seasonal distribution of the infection had a winter-spring character in urban areas and a spring character in rural areas. 63.4% of all cases were children under 14 years. In cities a high morbidity level among adolescents and young people was determined mainly by visitors from rural areas. A high epidemiological importance of healthy carriers, predominantly schoolchildren and young people was established. The immunological studies of humoral immunity in different groups of the population indicate that the process of immunization was more rapid in cities.     

Effects of light on in vitro tuberization of the potato cultivar Desiree and its relatives

Effects of different combinations of short days and dark treatment and different light intensities during the short days on in vitro tuberization of three potato cultivars were examined. Tuberization in Desiree, Cleopatra and Gracia was induced by short-day-treatment after 4 weeks culture under long days. To preserve natural endogenous hormonal balance of in vitro plantlets growth regulators were not added to the medium. The shorter the duration of short-days period the higher light intensity necessary for earlier tuber initiation. There was also a synchronizing effect of the high light intensity on tuber initiation but it depended on photoperiod-treatments and genotypes. The higher the light intensity during induction period the less favourable the effect of light applied after the induction period.     

Brief communication: Rethinking the impact of the 1918 influenza pandemic on sex differentials in mortality

This study will assess the general impact of the 1918 influenza on overall mortality and its impact on mortality attributable to pulmonary tuberculosis in a small‐scale population. Using life table and decomposition methodologies, changes in mortality in Gibraltar used a scheme that identified a pre‐epidemic period (1904–1917), the epidemic year (1918), and the post‐epidemic period (1919–1927). Overall health in both sexes fell significantly in 1918 with a drop in life expectancy at birth, however, health quickly rebounded in the post‐epidemic period. In the case of women, there was a significant increase in life expectancy at birth after the epidemic. The impact of influenza on the magnitude of sex differentials in the life expectancy at birth fell during epidemic year but returned to a level comparable to that of the pre‐epidemic period. With respect to respiratory tuberculosis deaths, the immediate impact of influenza was restricted to only a significant increase in the rate among women (aged 15–54). In the post‐epidemic period, tuberculosis mortality rates returned to the pre‐epidemic state in both sexes. The findings from Gibraltar stand in contrast opposition to results reported for experience in the United States during the 1918 flu. Am J Phys Anthropol, 2009. © 2009 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.