Analysis of the trends in typhoid-paratyphoid morbidity in the USSR]

Mathematico-statistical analysis of typhoid-paratyphoid infection morbidity in the USSR during 1900--1940 revealed a regular many-year cyclic recurrence of the changes in the morbidity level. The intensity of the morbidity level reduction at the periods of decline--in 1900--1917, 1920--1928, and in 1932--1939--was similar. A successive reduction of morbidity of this group of infections, by 6.45% on the average, annually, occurred in 1930--1976. The character of reduction of typhoid-paratyphoid infections morbidity level in the USSR during that period is well described by the exponential function.     

Analysis of the dynamics of typho-paratyphoid infection morbidity over the years in the USSR]

Statistical materials of recording the number of patients and of the typhoid-paratyphoid infections morbidity level in Russia and the USSR from 1891 to 1976 was studied. A stable tendency to reduction of this morbidity was noted. In analysing the empirical and flattened--by 3 and 5 points--curves of the number of patients and the morbidity level a regularity of declining morbidity rises was revealed. Elevation periodicity persisted, despite the reduction of morbidity level. The mean duration of the whole cycle constituted 12 years. The period of increasing morbidity from minimal to maximal in each cycle constituted 4 years, and of the declination period--8 years. Formalized empirical series of the number of patients and of the morbidity level deviated from 1908 to 1956 not more than by 1 year from the formalized basic curve. Cyclic changes of typhoid-paratyphoid infections morbidity should be taken into consideration in determining the efficacy of prophylatic measures, particularly of mass vaccination.     

The manifestations of an epidemic process of typhoid infection in Moscow

The work deals with the results of typhoid morbidity in Moscow for the period of 1980-1988. The morbidity rate varied from 0.98 to 0.17 cases per 100,000 of population with a tendency towards decrease. In the structure of morbidity local cases accounted for 46.8% and cases of infection contacted outside Moscow accounted for 53.2%. The morbidity level was low throughout the whole territory, only in two districts morbidity rate was significantly higher (P = 95%) than the average morbidity rate in the whole of the city. In the group of local cases morbidity had no pronounced seasonal character, in contrast to cases due to infection contacted outside the city which were mostly registered in summer and autumn. Persons aged 21-30 years were found to be the most affected age group. The general factors, and not the contact route, are supposed to play the main role in the realization of the mechanism of infection transfer. Under modern conditions, some manifestations of the epidemic process of typhoid infection can be detected only at the level of the whole city, or even the whole country.     

Effect of inducers and inhibitors of mixed function oxidases on body resistance to endotoxins of gram-negative bacteria

Experimental typhoid intoxication in white mice leads to the inhibition of microsomal oxidation in the liver, which is manifested by the prolongation of hexenal-induced sleep and a decrease in the toxic action of parathion. Phenobarbital, capable of inducing oxidases with mixed function (OMF), enhances the process of the detoxification of endotoxin injected into the animals, which is manifested by the increase of its LD50. Soluble levomycetin succinate, widely used for the treatment of typhoid-paratyphoid infections, is a powerful inhibitor of OMF (as shown by the hexenal test). Benzonal, the analog of phenobarbital, removes the inhibitory effect of the antibiotic. Experimental studies carried out in the course of this investigation make it possible to substantiate the clinical trial of these preparations (OMF inducers) used in the complex therapy of typhoid-paratyphoid infections for the stimulation of natural detoxification mechanisms of the body. Benzonal is the preparation of choice for use in clinical practice.     

Epidemiological pattern of scarlet fever in recent years

During the period of 1953-2001 scarlet fever morbidity level fluctuated from 670.3 to 65.9 per 100,000 of the population in Moscow and from 531.9 to 35.0 per 100,000 of the population of the Russian Federation. In recent years an increased morbidity was more pronounced in Moscow than in the Russian Federation as a whole. Children formed the greater part of scarlet fever patients, the cases of scarlet fever among children in Moscow occurring more often than, on the average, in Russia. As before, annual morbidity among children attending children's institutions was higher 3- to 4-fold than among children brought up at home. This difference was most sharply pronounced among young children during the first two years of their life. In contrast to morbidity observed during previous 20-30 years, a drop in morbidity among children during the first two years of their life was registered, while morbidity level among children aged 3-6 years and 7-14 years increased. Scarlet fever morbidity had a pronounced seasonal (autumn-winter) pattern. In a group of children aged 3-5 years who attended organized groups, on the average, 78.6% of scarlet fever cases fell on seasonal morbidity, the most prolonged one.     

陕西吴起植被动态及其与气候变化的关系

使用归一化植被指数(normalized difference vegetation index,NDVI)资料,分析了陕西省吴起县1982-2003年NDVI的演变情况及其与气候变化的关系。结果表明,22年来植被覆盖状况尽管有波动起伏,但整体在持续转好,表现在低覆盖率植被面积在减少,高覆盖率植被面积在增加;年平均NDVI与降水量呈正相关,植被覆盖的改善有利于减小风速;从季节平均值来看,春季降水量与夏季NDVI、夏季降水量与秋季NDVI的相关性均极显著(P<0.01),并且夏秋两季的降水量与年NDVI相关性也显著,说明降水量是影响吴起县植被分布状况的关键性因子;春夏季蒸发量与夏季的NDVI均呈极显著的负相关(P<0.01);春夏季相对湿度与夏季的NDVI呈极显著的正相关(P<0.01),冬季相对湿度与冬季的NDVI呈极显著的负相关(P<0.01)。     

Nature of the epidemic process in Sonne and Flexner dysenteries and the causes of its induction

A comparative study of the epidemic process in Sh. sonnei and Sh. flexneri dysentery in different regions of the USSR revealed that the morbidity level of Sh. sonnei dysentery changed simultaneously in the regions under study at intervals of 2-3 years. Sh. flexneri dysentery showed morbidity rises occurring at intervals 6-8 years, and their occurrence did not coincide with the periods of elevated morbidity in Sh. sonnei dysentery. The data obtained in the cohort analysis and in the study of recurrent morbidity suggest that Sh. flexneri dysentery produces more pronounced postinfection immunity than Sh. sonnei dysentery, and the immunological factor probably affects the dynamics of the epidemic of these Shigella infections.     

The spread of rotavirus gastroenteritis in the Republic of Tajikistan

The article deals with the results of the investigation which has demonstrated the spread of rotavirus infection on the territory of the Republic of Tajikistan. This infection has gained an important place in the regional pathology and requires increased epidemiological surveillance on its spread. As established in the course of this investigation, in patients with the clinical manifestations of pronounced gastroenteritis rotavirus plays the role of the etiological agent in 25.8% of cases in children aged up to 14 years and in 11.0% of cases in adults. Synchronism in the seasonal dynamics of morbidity in acute enteric infections of unclear etiology and rotavirus gastroenteritis among children aged 0-2 years, annually reaching morbidity peak in October, has been revealed. Rotavirus gastroenteritis requires close attention as regards its prophylaxis as one of the main nosological forms of acute enteric infections in the Republic.     

Epidemiological research in amyotrophic leukospongiosis

The epidemiological aspects of amyotrophic leukospongiosis (AL), a slow viral infection of the central nervous system leading to the fatal outcome in 2-4 years, have been studied. As a rule, this disease is observed in the inhabitants of rural areas or in town dwellers born in rural areas and having spent there a considerable part of their life. AL occurs in persons of middle and older age; young people under 19 years and old people over 68 years of age are not affected by this infection. In contrast to amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and the Jakob-Creutzfeldt disease, AL is characteristic for persons in the phase of hormonal activity. The disease starts mostly in autumn and winter; this regularity is especially pronounced in women. The morbidity level (according to the average annual data) is at present 0.3 per million of population. An increased morbidity rate is characteristic of the family and group type of the epidemic process. This higher morbidity rate, by one order higher than that observed in the sporadic type of morbidity, is caused by the gradual formation of "genetic isolates".     

The cause of the activation of an epidemic process of intestinal infections in the 70s]

In the seventies a considerable rise in dysentery morbidity was observed in all republics of the USSR, in the whole of the USSR, in Bulgaria and in the German Democratic Republic. An increase in cholera morbidity in the world, as well as in the number of countries affected by this infection, was registered. A tendency towards a rise in virus hepatitis incidence was observed in the USSR. The dynamic study of the ozone content in the stratosphere, solar activity, disturbances in the magnetic field of the Earth, air temperature for the period of 1967-1980 was carried out. Strong and moderate correlation between dysentery and air temperature in summer was established. The maximum morbidity level in the USSR in 1972 was probably the consequence of unusually high air temperature in summer.     

Spread of salmonellosis in Moscow and the ways of its prophylaxis

The article deals with the results of the epidemiological analysis of the spread of salmonellosis in Moscow. During the last 15 years the proportion of Salmonella enteritidis was about 80% and more. After salmonellosis morbidity decreased to 19.9 per 100,000 of the population (the minimum level) in 1985 its sharp rise was noted. Morbidity rate increased from 31.7 in 1987 to 55.1 per 100,000 in 1988, then to 93.9 per 100,000 of the population in 1989 (the maximum level). In the subsequent years up to 1996 a decrease in morbidity rate was observed, but in 1997-2002 morbidity rate stabilized within 29.8-35.7 per 100,000 of the population without a perceptible tendency towards decrease. The sharp increase of the etiological role of S. enteritidis which led to a wide spread of Salmonella infections was caused by the "chicken-egg" factor of their transmission. High morbidity rate among children and adults, registered all the year round, is the consequence of the constant epidemic activity of this factor.     

人类活动与气候变化对洪湖春旱的影响

近年来洪湖地区干旱事件频繁发生,对该地区农业生产与生态环境造成了极大影响。利用1960—2011年气候资料、近30年洪湖水文、土地利用资料,采用湖泊水量平衡方法、统计学等方法,研究分析了人类活动和气候变化对洪湖春季干旱的影响。结果表明:伴随全球气候变化该地区年降水和夏季降水呈增加趋势,而春季降水尤其是春季少雨年的降水量减少趋势明显,其减少速率为12.57 mn/10a,达到了α=0.1显著水平;洪湖5月水位高度依赖春季降水,降水对它贡献率为0.36 m/100mm。近20年来,洪湖周边两县市水产养殖面积增加了7倍,在降水偏少时,农业灌溉需水量20a增加了4.14×10~8m~3以上;水产养殖消耗大量春季水资源,对洪湖5月水位的影响率为-0.158 m/10~4hm~2,达到了0.1的显著性水平。人类活动与气候变化是洪湖春旱增多加重两个重要原因,比较它们的变化量与影响率,人类活动对洪湖春旱的影响更大。为维护洪湖生态功能,减轻干旱影响,必须调整农业结构。     

Experience in using correlation analysis for evaluating the synchronism of the fluctuations in the level of infectious morbidity in individual areas

The possibility of using correlation analysis for evaluating the synchronism of changes in infectious morbidity rate on different territories was studied. The study demonstrated that the intensity of correlative relationships was mainly influenced by the degree of manifestation and the direction of prolonged tendencies in the changes of infectious morbidity on the territories under study. The presence of prolonged pronounced tendencies towards growth or decrease in the compared curves characterizing prolonged morbidity dynamics was found to limit the use of correlation analysis for the evaluation of synchronism of changes in morbidity rate.     

Ontogenetic Approach to Studying Natural Avian Populations

The asymmetry of digit folidosis and the correlation of exterior characteristics have been studied in 20 passerine species. The level of the characteristic asymmetry depends on the phylopatry level and regularly increases in the species disposed to annual change of the nesting site. We assume that the revealed variability reflects interpopulation flow of genes. Age-, sex-, and biotope-related changes associated with urbanization have been revealed in the correlation of characteristics. Older birds have more pronounced correlation of characteristics; it is also more specific for males than females. Correlation of characteristics is less pronounced in the urban avian populations. These differences are interpreted in terms of stabilizing selection within intraspecific groups.     

Ontogenetic approach to studying natural avian populations]

The asymmetry of digit folidosis and the correlation of exterior characteristics have been studied in 20 passerine species. The level of the characteristic asymmetry depends on the phylopatry level and regularly increases in the species disposed to annual change of the nesting site. We assume that the revealed variability reflects interpopulation flow of genes. Age-, sex-, and biotope-related changes associated with urbanization have been revealed in the correlation of characteristics. Older birds have more pronounced correlation of characteristics; it is also more specific for males than females. Correlation of characteristics is less pronounced in the urban avian populations. These differences are interpreted in terms of stabilizing selection within intraspecific groups.     

Epidemiological effectiveness of influenza immunoprophylaxis with Unifluvax vaccine in organized groups of servicemen

The results of vaccination carried out in an organized group with the subunit influenza vaccine "Influvax" are presented. In the immunized group the registered morbidity level exceeded the annual morbidity level by 7-12% only against the expected epidemic rise. Respiratory diseases in this group took a mild course. The morbidity level in the control group corresponded to the predicted value and exceeded the morbidity level in the vaccinated group 4.2-fold. The conclusion was made on the effectiveness of immunoprophylaxis.     

云南省植被NDVI时间变化特征及其对干旱的响应

基于云南省74个气象站点的1997—2012年逐日降水资料和逐旬SPOT-NDVI值,利用标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)多尺度分析了云南省干旱时间和强度演变与NDVI时间动态特征及其相关性分析,进而探讨气候变化对植被的影响。结果表明,1999—2013年云南省年平均NDVI值和年最大NDVI值均呈现波浪式的发展趋势,其趋势线斜率分别为0.0017和0.0011;NDVI年内各月变化情况大体上相同;不同季节NDVI的年际变化特征呈现出显著差异。1997—2012年不同时间尺度SPEI均体现出干旱化加剧的趋势,并随SPEI的时间尺度增大而增大;3个月尺度的SPEI值(SPEI3)结果表明,各月的变化呈现先增大后减小的趋势;SPEI3反映出多年季节水平的干旱强度为:冬季秋季春季夏季。总体上,云南省的年均NDVI与SPEI的相关性极弱,年最大NDVI与SPEI呈正相关;多年月均NDVI与不同尺度SPEI的相关性较强且存在滞后性;不同季节NDVI与SPEI的相关性及滞后性有较大差异,其中冬季NDVI、秋季NDVI与其当年当季SPEI的负相关性较强。     

Multiyear and seasonal hepatitis A morbidity in different population age groups in certain areas

At the areas with high activity of hepatitis A (HA) epidemic process the duration of epidemic cycles was shown to differ, the intervals between the peaks of morbidity increasing in older age groups. The beginning of seasonal rises exceeding the average annual HA morbidity level in different age groups was found to depend on the activity of the epidemic process. At the areas with the highest activity of the epidemic process children aged 1-2 years were the first to be affected by the seasonal rise of HA. Stable direct correlation between HA morbidity levels at the beginning of seasonal rises and some markers indicative of unfavorable sanitary conditions (the size of the fly population, the purity of water samples deviating from the requirement of the Government Standard) during the preceding year was demonstrated.     

Epidemiological characteristics of meningococcal infection in a number of territories of the RSFSR (1969-1984)

In this work the dynamics and morbidity level in respect of meningococcal infection at 11 territories of the RSFSR at the period of 1969-1984 are analyzed. The study covered altogether 16 cities and 211 districts. The role of big cities as the sources of infection spreading into rural areas and further "fixation" of this infection mainly in regions with a population of 60,000 and more had been established. The data on meningococcal morbidity and carriership among different age groups are presented. The study has shown a pronounced increase in the incidence rate of meningococcal infection among children aged up to 2 years, as well as an increase in the proportion of these children among patients with meningococcal infection in recent years.     

1982-2009年东北多年冻土区植被净初级生产力动态及其对全球变化的响应

东北多年冻土区作为高纬度寒区之一,对全球变化较敏感.本文基于AVHRR和MODIS两种遥感数据源的归一化植被指数,应用CASA模型对1982-2009年东北多年冻土区植被净初级生产力(NPP)进行模拟.结果表明:1982-2009年,东北多年冻土区年均气温、年太阳辐射总量和年日照时数显著上升,年降水量显著下降,CO2浓度及其年增长率显著增大;植被年NPP呈显著的先增加后降低趋势,变化分异节点在1998年.研究期间,东北多年冻土区植被年均NPP总量为623 g C·m-2,植被年NPP空间分布差异明显.降水是该区生长季植被生长的主要影响因子,植被NPP对气候变化响应的空间异质性明显.土地利用变化通过改变土地覆被状况使植被NPP发生变化,影响了植被NPP的时空分布特征,植被NPP与CO2浓度呈显著正相关.多年冻土退化对植被NPP的影响随着各区域环境的不同而有所差异.多年冻土区植被NPP与年均地温呈显著正相关,与年最大冻土深度呈负相关.