The rising incidence of testicular cancer among young men in Canada,data from 1971–2015

BackgroundTesticular cancer is the most common malignancy among young men aged 15–44 in Canada. The goal of this analysis was to examine age-period-cohort effects of testicular cancer incidence between 1971 and 2015.MethodsData were collected from the National Cancer Incidence Reporting System and the Canadian Cancer Registry. Birth cohort models were fit using the National Cancer Institute’s web tool. Incidence annual percent changes were estimated using NCI’s Joinpoint Regression Program.ResultsIncidence of testicular cancer in Canada has increased steadily since 1971. A birth cohort effect was observed for men born in the years after 1945. The rate of testicular cancer peaks at age 35 and drops off with increasing age.ConclusionIncidence of testicular cancer has risen dramatically in Canada in recent decades and the cohort effect indicates the need to investigate exposures that have increased since 1945 and that may affect development in young men.     

Reviews on sun exposure and artificial light and melanoma

Melanoma is the most common form of cancer among young adults aged 25-29 years and the second most common cancer in those aged 15-29 years. We reviewed all the evidence regarding risk factors for melanoma, looking in particular at childhood exposure to ultraviolet radiation (UV). UV radiation is clearly the predominant environmental and thus potentially modifiable risk factor for melanoma. All activities related to tan-seeking behaviour and history of sunburns were shown to be significantly associated to melanoma. Host factors, such as pigmentary characteristics, and genetic predisposition plays also an important role. UV exposure is not only due to the sun but also to indoor tanning devices that have been shown to lead to an elevated risk of melanoma. The strongest evidence for a link between artificial UV and melanoma is found among individuals who had their first exposure to indoor tanning before the age of 30: they have a 75% increase risk of developing melanoma than individuals who had no exposure to indoor tanning. Prevention is very important, especially for children and young adults, as childhood and adolescence are critical periods in the development of later melanoma. Indoor tanning is a widespread practice in most developed countries, particularly in Northern Europe and the USA. In the recent decades more and more people, especially teenagers and women, are exposed to substantially high radiant exposures of UV through artificial sources and these trends raised a considerable concern. In fact the International Agency for Research on Cancer concluded that the association between skin cancer and exposure to solar radiation and the use of UV-emitting tanning devices are causal. Interesting analyses carried out in Iceland showed that when interventions to discourage sunbed use were introduced the incidence of melanoma among women decreased. All this evidence encouraged many countries to introduce regulations on sunbed use to avoid exposure before the age of 18.     

Seasonal variation in diagnosis of cutaneous invasive melanoma and cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma: A nationwide study in the Netherlands

BackgroundCurrently, there is no study that has reported on the seasonal trends of skin cancer in the Netherlands. This study aimed to investigate seasonal variation in diagnosis of cutaneous melanoma (CM) and cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) focusing on different subgroups.MethodsCM diagnosed from 2001 till 2019 and cSCCs from 2001 till 2015 were selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. The monthly distribution of CM and cSCC diagnoses were evaluated. Summer-to-winter ratios (SWRs) were calculated overall and stratified by patient and tumour characteristics.ResultsSignificant increases in melanoma incidence were noted over the summer months (SWR 1.39 (CI 1.37–1.40)). This increase was less apparent for cSCCs, as higher incidence rates were observed in the months September-November (SWR 1.13 (CI 1.12–1.14)). The seasonal variation of CM was greater in women and younger people, in superficial spreading melanoma and lentigo maligna melanoma, for the extremities, in thinner lesions, and for stage I at diagnosis. The seasonal variation of cSCC was similar for both sexes, most marked in patients 45‐69 and ≥ 70, and for the extremities.ConclusionsOur findings showed a pronounced seasonal variation in the diagnosis of CM with a peak in the summer months. For cSCC, no evident peak was observed, but an increase in diagnosis was noted in fall. Both CM and cSCC showed strong seasonal effects for the extremities.     

Progress in cancer survival across last two decades: A nationwide study of over 1.2 million Polish patients diagnosed with the most common cancers

BackgroundThe purpose of this study was to estimate the high incidence cancers survival in Poland between 2000 and 2018, with the following aim to monitor the national polish cancer control program 2020–2030 effectiveness. We calculated survival in cancer of lung, breast, prostate, colon, rectum, ovarian, cervical cancers, and skin melanoma.MethodsData were obtained from the Polish Cancer Registry (PLCR). We estimated age-standardized 5-year net survival (NS) with the life table method and the Pohar-Perme estimator using the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. The corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estimated with log transformation.ResultsOverall, 1,288,944 high incidence cancer cases were included in the study (622,486 men and 666,458 women). In 2015–2018 age-standardized 5-year NS was 85.2% (95% CI = 84.6% to 85.8%) in prostate cancer, 80.0% (79.5% to 80.4%) breast cancer, 77.3%(76.4% to 78.1%) melanoma, 58.5% (57.5% to 59.5%) cervical cancer, 57.9% (57.3% to 58.5%) colon cancer, 52.1% (51.3% to 52.9%) rectal cancer, 43.3% (42.4% to 44.3%) ovarian cancer, and 17.8% (17.4% to 18.1%) for lung cancer. Between the 2000–2004 and 2015–2018 the highest increase in survival was noted for prostate cancer (14.6% points [pp]; from 70.6% to 85.2%) and the lowest for lung cancer (4.5 pp; from 13.3% to 17.8%).ConclusionCancer survivorship has been consistently improving during the last two decades. Notwithstanding these overall encouraging results, more extraordinary efforts are needed to close the cancer survival gap in Poland.     

Tanning Devices – Fast Track to Skin Cancer?

The use of UVB and/or UVA emitting devices for cosmetic tanning is widespread in Western populations including young people and is especially prevalent in females. Several epidemiological studies, although not all, have shown a significant relationship between the use of tanning devices and malignant melanoma after, in some cases, adjustment for confounding factors such as solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure. A relationship between solar exposure, especially intermittent exposure, and malignant melanoma is well established so it is not surprising that a similar connection has been reported for the use of tanning devices. Several epidemiological studies show that childhood exposure to sunlight is a risk factor for malignant melanoma and this may also be the case for the use of tanning devices, especially if sunburns are obtained. Some studies have evaluated the relationship between the use of tanning devices and non‐melanoma skin cancer and at least one has suggested an association. The use of tanning devices by a substantial minority of young people is a worrying trend in terms of a likely increased incidence of malignant melanoma, and possibly non‐melanoma cancers in the future. Although two recent reviews by epidemiologists conclude that a clear link between tanning devices and malignant melanoma is yet to be proven, there is a strong case for effective legislation to prohibit the use of tanning devices by people under 18 yr of age.     

Estimation of cancer mortality attributable to excess body weight during 2006–2015 in China

BackgroundCancer is one of the most common causes of death. Excess body weight (EBW), a risk factor for cancer, is highly prevalent in China. We aimed to estimate the number and proportion of cancer deaths attributed to EBW and their changes during 2006–2015 in China.MethodsPopulation attributable fractions in 2006, 2010, and 2015 were calculated with 1) prevalence of overweight/obesity, exacted from the China Health and Nutrition Survey conducted in 8–9 provinces of China in 1997, 2000, and 2004; 2) relative risks for EBW and site-specific cancers, obtained from previous studies; 3) data on cancer deaths in 2006, 2010, and 2015, originated from the Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report.ResultsIn 2015, EBW contributed to 45,918 (3.1% of all) cancer deaths in China, with 24,978 (2.6%) in men and 20,940 (3.8%) in women. By region, the fraction of cancer deaths attributable to EBW ranged from 1.6% (West) to 4.1% (Northeast). Cancers of liver, stomach, and colorectum were the main EBW-attributable cancers. The fractions of cancer deaths attributable to EBW were 2.4% (95%CI: 0.8–4.2%) in 2006, 2.9% (95%CI: 1.0–5.2%) in 2010, and 3.1% (95%CI: 1.0–5.4%) in 2015, respectively, and increased for all gender, region, and cancer site during 2006–2015.ConclusionsThe proportion of cancer deaths attributed to EBW was higher in women and Northeastern China, with an upward trend in the recent decade. A combination of comprehensive and individualized measures is necessary to reduce the prevalence of EBW and related cancer burden in China.     

Temporal and geographical variations of thyroid cancer incidence and mortality in France during 1986–2015: The impact of overdiagnosis

BackgroundFrance is among the countries showing fastest growth of thyroid cancer (TC) incidence and highest incidence rates in Europe. This study aimed to clarify the temporal and geographical variations of TC in France and to quantify the impact of overdiagnosis.MethodsWe obtained TC incidence data in 1986–2015, and mortality data in 1976–2015, for eight French departments covering 8% of the national population, and calculated the age-standardised rates (ASR). We estimated the average annual percent changes (AAPC) of TC incidence, overall and by department and histological subtype. Numbers and proportions of TC cases attributable to overdiagnosis were estimated by department and period, based on the comparison between the shape of the age-specific curves with that observed prior to changes in diagnostic practice.ResultsDuring 1986–2015, there were 13,557 TC cases aged 15–84 years. Large variations of TC incidence were observed across departments, with the highest ASR and the fastest increase in Isère. Papillary subtype accounted for 82.8% of the cases, and presented an AAPC of 7.0% and 7.6% in women and men, respectively. Anaplastic TC incidence decreased annually 3.0% in women and 0.8% in men. Mortality rates declined consistently for all departments. The absolute number (and proportion) of TC cases attributable to overdiagnosis grew from 1074 (66%) in 1986–1995 to 3830 (72%) in 2006–2015 in women, and varied substantially across departments.ConclusionsOverdiagnosis plays an important role in the temporal and regional variations of TC incidence in France. Monitoring the time trends and regulating the regional healthcare practice are needed to reduce its impact.     

Incidence,prevalence, mortality,disability-adjusted life years and risk factors of cancer in Australia and comparison with OECD countries, 1990–2015: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BackgroundComparative evidence on the burden, trend, and risk factors of cancer is limited. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, we aimed to assess cancer burden – incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) – and attributable risk factors for Australia between 1990 and 2015, and to compare them with those of 34 members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).MethodsThe general GBD cancer estimation methods were used with data input from vital registration systems and cancer registries. A comparative risk assessment approach was used to estimate the population-attributable fractions due to risk factors.ResultsIn 2015 there were 198,880 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 183,908–217,365) estimated incident cancer cases and 47,562 (95% UI: 46,061–49,004) cancer deaths in Australia. Twenty-nine percent (95% UI: 28.2–29.8) of total deaths and 17.0% (95% UI: 15.0–19.1) of DALYs were caused by cancer in Australia in 2015. Cancers of the trachea, bronchus and lung, colon and rectum, and prostate were the most common causes of cancer deaths. Thirty-six percent (95% UI: 33.1–37.9) of all cancer deaths were attributable to behavioral risks. The age-standardized cancer incidence rate (ASIR) increased between 1990 and 2015, while the age-standardized cancer death rate (ASDR) decreased over the same period. In 2015, compared to 34 other OECD countries Australia ranked first (highest) and 24^th based on ASIR and ASDR, respectively.ConclusionThe incidence of cancer has increased over 25 years, and behavioral risks are responsible for a large proportion of cancer deaths. Scaling up of prevention (using strategies targeting cancer risk factors), early detection, and treatment of cancer is required to effectively address this growing health challenge.     

Changes in prostate cancer incidence,mortality and survival in relation to prostate specific antigen testing in New South Wales,Australia

BackgroundTo examine changes in prostate cancer incidence and mortality rates, and 5-year relative survival, in relation to changes in the rate of prostate specific antigen (PSA) screening tests and the use of radical prostatectomy (RP) in the Australian population.MethodsProstate cancer stage-specific incidence rates, 5-year relative survival and mortality rates were estimated using New South Wales Cancer Registry data. PSA screening test rates and RP/Incidence ratios were estimated from Medicare Benefits Schedule claims data. We used multiple imputation to impute stage for cases with “unknown” stage at diagnosis. Annual percentage changes (APC) in rates were estimated using Joinpoint regression.ResultsTrends in the age-standardized incidence rates for localized disease largely mirrored the trends in PSA screening test rates, with a substantial ‘spike’ in the rates occurring in 1994, followed by a second ‘spike’ in 2008, and then a significant decrease from 2008 to 2015 (APC −6.7, 95% CI −8.2, −5.1). Increasing trends in incidence rates were observed for regional stage from the early 2000s, while decreasing or stable trends were observed for distant stage since 1993. The overall RP/Incidence ratio increased from 1998 to 2003 (APC 9.6, 95% CI 3.8, 15.6), then remained relatively stable to 2015. The overall 5-year relative survival for prostate cancer increased from 58.4% (95% CI: 55.0–61.7%) in 1981–1985 to 91.3% (95% CI: 90.5–92.1%) in 2011–2015. Prostate cancer mortality rates decreased from 1990 onwards (1990–2006: APC −1.7, 95% CI −2.1, −1.2; 2006–2017: APC −3.8, 95% CI −4.4, −3.1).ConclusionsOverall, there was a decrease in the incidence rate of localized prostate cancer after 2008, an increase in survival over time and a decrease in the mortality rate since the 1990s. This seems to indicate that the more conservative use of PSA screening tests in clinical practice since 2008 has not had a negative impact on population-wide prostate cancer outcomes.     

Tanning devices--fast track to skin cancer?

The use of UVB and/or UVA emitting devices for cosmetic tanning is widespread in Western populations including young people and is especially prevalent in females. Several epidemiological studies, although not all, have shown a significant relationship between the use of tanning devices and malignant melanoma after, in some cases, adjustment for confounding factors such as solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure. A relationship between solar exposure, especially intermittent exposure, and malignant melanoma is well established so it is not surprising that a similar connection has been reported for the use of tanning devices. Several epidemiological studies show that childhood exposure to sunlight is a risk factor for malignant melanoma and this may also be the case for the use of tanning devices, especially if sunburns are obtained. Some studies have evaluated the relationship between the use of tanning devices and non-melanoma skin cancer and at least one has suggested an association. The use of tanning devices by a substantial minority of young people is a worrying trend in terms of a likely increased incidence of malignant melanoma, and possibly non-melanoma cancers in the future. Although two recent reviews by epidemiologists conclude that a clear link between tanning devices and malignant melanoma is yet to be proven, there is a strong case for effective legislation to prohibit the use of tanning devices by people under 18 yr of age.     

Projected estimates of cancer in Canada in 2022

Background:Regular cancer surveillance is crucial for understanding where progress is being made and where more must be done. We sought to provide an overview of the expected burden of cancer in Canada in 2022.Methods:We obtained data on new cancer incidence from the National Cancer Incidence Reporting System (1984–1991) and Canadian Cancer Registry (1992–2018). Mortality data (1984–2019) were obtained from the Canadian Vital Statistics — Death Database. We projected cancer incidence and mortality counts and rates to 2022 for 22 cancer types by sex and province or territory. Rates were age standardized to the 2011 Canadian standard population.Results:An estimated 233 900 new cancer cases and 85 100 cancer deaths are expected in Canada in 2022. We expect the most commonly diagnosed cancers to be lung overall (30 000), breast in females (28 600) and prostate in males (24 600). We also expect lung cancer to be the leading cause of cancer death, accounting for 24.3% of all cancer deaths, followed by colorectal (11.0%), pancreatic (6.7%) and breast cancers (6.5%). Incidence and mortality rates are generally expected to be higher in the eastern provinces of Canada than the western provinces.Interpretation:Although overall cancer rates are declining, the number of cases and deaths continues to climb, owing to population growth and the aging population. The projected high burden of lung cancer indicates a need for increased tobacco control and improvements in early detection and treatment. Success in breast and colorectal cancer screening and treatment likely account for the continued decline in their burden. The limited progress in early detection and new treatments for pancreatic cancer explains why it is expected to be the third leading cause of cancer death in Canada.

The impact of cancer on the Canadian population and health care systems is substantial. Cancer is the leading cause of death in Canada^1,2 and previous estimates have shown that 43% of all people in Canada are expected to receive a cancer diagnosis in their lifetime.³ With an aging and growing population, the number of new cancer cases and deaths in Canada is also increasing.⁴ In addition to its impact on health, cancer is costly. The economic burden of cancer care in Canada rose from $2.9 billion in 2005 to $7.5 billion in 2012, annually.⁵Given the considerable health and economic impact of cancer in Canada, comprehensive and reliable surveillance information is necessary for identifying where progress has been made and where more attention and resources are needed. To meet these needs, the Canadian Cancer Statistics Advisory Committee, in collaboration with the Canadian Cancer Society, Statistics Canada and the Public Health Agency of Canada, produces the latest surveillance statistics on cancer in Canada.Cancer data often lag the current date by several years, owing to the time associated with collecting, verifying and analyzing the data. Short-term cancer incidence and mortality rates can be projected by extrapolating past trends to estimate future trends, using statistical models. These short-term projections provide a more up-to-date estimate of the cancer landscape in Canada. Incidence and mortality counts, along with age-standardized rates, provide a picture of the impact of cancer in Canada, which is essential for resource planning, research and informing cancer-control programs.Canadian Cancer Statistics 2021³ provided detailed estimates of cancer incidence, mortality and survival in Canada by age, sex, geographic region and over time for 22 cancer types.³ Here, we provide updated estimates of the counts and age-standardized rates of new cancer cases (incidence) and cancer deaths (mortality) expected in 2022 by sex and province and territory, for all ages combined.     

Quantitative health impact of indoor radon in France

Radon is the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. Since the previous quantitative risk assessment of indoor radon conducted in France, input data have changed such as, estimates of indoor radon concentrations, lung cancer rates and the prevalence of tobacco consumption. The aim of this work was to update the risk assessment of lung cancer mortality attributable to indoor radon in France using recent risk models and data, improving the consideration of smoking, and providing results at a fine geographical scale. The data used were population data (2012), vital statistics on death from lung cancer (2008–2012), domestic radon exposure from a recent database that combines measurement results of indoor radon concentration and the geogenic radon potential map for France (2015), and smoking prevalence (2010). The risk model used was derived from a European epidemiological study, considering that lung cancer risk increased by 16% per 100 becquerels per cubic meter (Bq/m³) indoor radon concentration. The estimated number of lung cancer deaths attributable to indoor radon exposure is about 3000 (1000; 5000), which corresponds to about 10% of all lung cancer deaths each year in France. About 33% of lung cancer deaths attributable to radon are due to exposure levels above 100 Bq/m³. Considering the combined effect of tobacco and radon, the study shows that 75% of estimated radon-attributable lung cancer deaths occur among current smokers, 20% among ex-smokers and 5% among never-smokers. It is concluded that the results of this study, which are based on precise estimates of indoor radon concentrations at finest geographical scale, can serve as a basis for defining French policy against radon risk.     

Increasing Gap Between Thyroid Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Urban Shanghai,China: An Analysis Spanning 43 Years

ObjectiveTo examine the secular trends of thyroid cancer incidence and mortality and to estimate the proportion of thyroid cancer cases potentially attributable to overdiagnosis.MethodsData on thyroid cancer cases from 1973 to 2015 were obtained from the Shanghai Cancer Registry. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was evaluated using the joinpoint regression analysis. The age, period, and birth cohort effects were assessed using an age-period-cohort model. The overdiagnosis of thyroid cancer cases was estimated based on the difference between observed and expected incidences using the rates of Nordic countries as reference.ResultsFrom 1973 to 2015, the number of thyroid cancer cases was 23 117, and 75% of the patients were women. The age-standardized rates were seven- to eightfold higher from 2013 to 2015 than from 1973 to 1977. Compared with relatively stable mortality, thyroid cancer incidence was dramatically increased from 2002 to 2015 in both sexes, with significant trends (men: AAPC = 21.84%, 95% CI: 18.77%-24.98%, P < .001; women: AAPC = 18.55%, 95% CI: 16.49%-20.64%, P < .001). The proportion of overdiagnosis has gradually increased over time, rising from 68% between 2003 and 2007 to more than 90% between 2013 and 2015. This increasing trend appeared to be similar between men and women.ConclusionAn increasing gap between thyroid cancer incidence and mortality was observed in Shanghai, and overdiagnosis has contributed substantially to the rise of incidence, which calls for an urgent update on the practice of thyroid examination.     

The impact of skin cancer prevention efforts in New South Wales,Australia: Generational trends in melanoma incidence and mortality

BackgroundIn Australia, skin cancer awareness campaigns have focused on raising the awareness and consequences of skin cancer and highlighting the importance of utilising sun protection.MethodsTrends in melanoma incidence and mortality have been explored elsewhere in Australia and this study sought to examine the trends in NSW. Anonymised incidence and mortality data for in situ and invasive melanoma from 1988 to 2014 were obtained from the NSW Cancer Registry. Trends of melanoma incidence and mortality were analysed using segmented regression to allow for changes over time. Birth cohort patterns were assessed using age–period–cohort models.ResultsOver the period, incidence of in situ melanoma increased in all age groups although the rates were lowest in those under 40 years of age. Incidence of invasive melanoma was either stable or decreased in people under 60, while it increased in those aged 60 and above, particularly in men. Age–period–cohort analysis revealed decreasing age-specific incidence of invasive melanoma under 40 years of age. Melanoma mortality over the period was stable or decreased in all groups except in men aged 60 or over. Overall, mortality rates generally declined or remained stable particularly in recent years.ConclusionIt is encouraging that rates of invasive melanoma are declining in the younger age cohorts – which could be attributed to both primary prevention efforts with individuals protecting their skin as well as early detection through self assessment and clinician performed skin checks. In addition, whilst it is important to monitor the increasing rates of in situ melanoma, the increase is likely due to early detection and treatment of melanoma that could have progressed to invasive melanoma and therefore detection whilst still in situ is an improved outcome. Overall, the results demonstrate the need to continue to improve the understanding of and compliance with primary skin cancer prevention measures in order to reduce population UVR exposure and overall melanoma incidence.     

Socioeconomic status and incidence of pediatric leukemia in Canada: 1992–2010

BackgroundLeukemia is the most common cancer among Canadian children, representing about a third of pediatric cancers in Canada and is responsible for about one-third of pediatric cancer deaths. Understanding the effect of socioeconomic status (SES) on pediatric leukemia incidence provides valuable information for cancer control and interventions in Canada.MethodsUsing a linked data from the Canadian Cancer Registry (CCR), Canadian Census of Population (CCP) and National Household Survey (NHS) we aimed to quantify socioeconomic inequalities in the incidence of pediatric leukemia from 1992 to 2010. We used the concentration index (C) approach to quantify income- and education-related inequalities in the incidence of pediatric leukemia over time.ResultsThough there were fluctuations in incidence over the study period, our results showed that the total incidence of pediatric leukemia in Canada was generally consistent from 1992 to 2010. Incidence rate of 47 per 1,000,000 as at 1992 rose to 57 per 1,000,000 in 2010. The estimated values of the C over the study period failed to show any significant association between pediatric leukemia incidence and household income or education status.ConclusionsAlthough pediatric leukemia incidence is not rising significantly, it is not reducing significantly either. The incidence of pediatric leukemia showed no significant association with socioeconomic status. Future cancer control interventions should focus more on mitigating risk factors that are independent of socioeconomic status.     

Development of predictive models to identify advanced-stage cancer patients in a US healthcare claims database

BackgroundAlthough healthcare databases are a valuable source for real-world oncology data, cancer stage is often lacking. We developed predictive models using claims data to identify metastatic/advanced-stage patients with ovarian cancer, urothelial carcinoma, gastric adenocarcinoma, Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC), and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).MethodsPatients with ≥1 diagnosis of a cancer of interest were identified in the HealthCore Integrated Research Database (HIRD), a United States (US) healthcare database (2010–2016). Data were linked to three US state cancer registries and the HealthCore Integrated Research Environment Oncology database to identify cancer stage. Predictive models were constructed to estimate the probability of metastatic/advanced stage. Predictors available in the HIRD were identified and coefficients estimated by Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression with cross-validation to control overfitting. Classification error rates and receiver operating characteristic curves were used to select probability thresholds for classifying patients as cases of metastatic/advanced cancer.ResultsWe used 2723 ovarian cancer, 6522 urothelial carcinoma, 1441 gastric adenocarcinoma, 109 MCC, and 12,373 NSCLC cases of early and metastatic/advanced cancer to develop predictive models. All models had high discrimination (C > 0.85). At thresholds selected for each model, PPVs were all >0.75: ovarian cancer = 0.95 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.94–0.96), urothelial carcinoma = 0.78 (95% CI: 0.70–0.86), gastric adenocarcinoma = 0.86 (95% CI: 0.83–0.88), MCC = 0.77 (95% CI 0.68–0.89), and NSCLC = 0.91 (95% CI 0.90 – 0.92).ConclusionPredictive modeling was used to identify five types of metastatic/advanced cancer in a healthcare claims database with greater accuracy than previous methods.     

Use of phosphodiesterase-5 inhibitors and the incidence of melanoma

IntroductionRecent evidence of a causal link between Phosphodiesterase-5-inhibitor (PDE-5i) use and melanoma has caused concern in PDE-5i use and was even addressed in the 2018 American Urological Association guideline on erectile dysfunction (ED). Given that several studies have affirmed this low probability but statistically significant association, one might expect a shift in melanoma diagnoses since PDE-5is were introduced in 1998. We sought to determine if the introduction of PDE-5i drugs for ED treatment increased incidence of melanoma.MethodsThe Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was used to compare the incidence of melanoma diagnosis in American men between 1973 and 2015, providing over a decade of data before and after PDE-5i introduction in 1998. Interrupted time-series and logistic regression were used to assess this relationship.ResultsOver 43 years, the SEER database has reported 292,166 cases of Melanoma, with males accounting for 53.7% of cases (Standard deviation [SD] 3%, Range 47.5–58.3%). After the introduction of PDE-5i, there was no proportional increase in melanoma diagnoses, in fact demonstrating a 2% lower incidence from prediction models (p < 0.05).ConclusionOur analysis of the SEER database demonstrates that the trend in incidence of melanoma has fallen in the era of PDE-5i use for ED. These findings may be of value in counseling patients anxious about the potential association between PDE-5i use and skin cancer; however, continued research analyzing individual-level risk are needed.     

Cancers in France in 2015 attributable to high body mass index

BackgroundOverweight, as defined by high body mass index (BMI), is an established risk factor for various morbidities including cancer. Globally, its prevalence has increased markedly over the past decades. The aim of this study was to estimate the proportion and number of cancers that were attributable to high BMI in France in 2015.MethodsPopulation attributable fractions (PAFs) and numbers of cancer cases attributable to high BMI (a population mean BMI above the optimum of 22 kg/m²) were estimated by age and sex, for cancer sites with convincing or probable evidence of an established causal link. Assuming a 10-year lag-period, PAFs were calculated using mean BMI estimates from a cross-sectional French population survey, and relative risk estimates from published meta-analyses.ResultsAn estimated 18,639 cancer cases diagnosed in France in 2015 were attributable to high BMI, corresponding to 5.3% of all cancer cases (6.7% in women and 4.1% in men). This included 4507 cases of postmenopausal breast and 3380 cases of colon cancer. The highest estimated PAFs were for oesophageal adenocarcinoma and corpus uteri cancer (37% and 34%, respectively).ConclusionHigh BMI is associated with a substantial number of cancer cases in France, a country with a low but increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity when compared to other European countries. Assuming that the association between high BMI and cancer is causal, these results highlight the need to prioritise the prevention of this risk factor as part of cancer control planning in France and elsewhere in Europe.     

The future burden of cancer in Canada: Long-term cancer incidence projections 2013–2042

BackgroundCancer is the leading cause of death in Canada and the estimated annual spending associated with cancer is approximately $7.5 billion. Projecting the future burden of cancer in Canada is essential for health planning and evaluation. We aimed to estimate the future incidence of cancer in Canada to 2042.MethodsAge-sex-region-specific cancer incidence data were obtained for the years 1983-2012 and cancer incidence was projected from 2013 to 2042 for the top five cancer sites. The modelling algorithm combined a mixture of cancer projection methods to select the best-fitted model. When the chosen model produced by the modelling algorithm resulted in estimates that were not consistent with expert opinion, an alternate model was selected that took into consideration historical changes in policy, screening and lifestyle behaviours. Incidence projections were made for Canada and its provinces.ResultsLung cancer incidence is estimated to rise to 14,866 cases in men and 19,162 in women in 2042. Colorectal cancer incidence is estimated to rise to 28,146 in men and 21,102 in women. Cases of bladder cancer are projected to rise to 10,708 and 3,364 in men and women, respectively. Breast cancer incidence is predicted to rise to 40,712 and prostate cancer incidence is projected to rise to 92,949.ConclusionThese cancer incidence projections up to 2042 can be used for planning cancer control strategies and prevention programs. Given the ongoing changes in the prevalence of risk factors and in cancer prevention policies, these estimates should be interpreted with caution.