National and regional breast cancer incidence and mortality trends in Mexico 2001–2011: Analysis of a population-based database

IntroductionBreast cancer is the most common malignancy in Mexican women since 2006. However, due to a lack of cancer registries, data is scarce. We sought to describe breast cancer trends in Mexico using population-based data from a national database and to analyze geographical and age-related differences in incidence and mortality rates.MethodsAll incident breast cancer cases reported to the National Epidemiological Surveillance System and all breast cancer deaths registered by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography in Mexico from 2001 to 2011 were included. Incidence and mortality rates were calculated for each age group and for 3 geographic regions of the country. Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to examine trends in BC incidence and mortality. We estimated annual percentage change (APC) using weighted least squares log-linear regression.ResultsWe found an increase in the reported national incidence, with an APC of 5.9% (95% CI 4.1–7.7, p < 0.05). Women aged 60–65 had the highest increase in incidence (APC 7.89%; 95% CI 5.5 −10.3, p < 0.05). Reported incidence rates were significantly increased in the Center and in the South of the country, while in the North they remained stable. Mortality rates also showed a significant increase, with an APC of 0.4% (95% CI 0.1–0.7, p < 0.05). Women 85 and older had the highest increase in mortality (APC 2.99%, 95% CI 1.9–4.1; p < 0.05).ConclusionsThe reporting of breast cancer cases in Mexico had a continuous increase, which could reflect population aging, increased availability of screening, an improvement in the number of clinical facilities and better reporting of cases. Although an improvement in the detection of cases is the most likely explanation for our findings, our results point towards an epidemiological transition in Mexico and should help in guiding national policy in developing countries.     

Africa’s Oesophageal Cancer Corridor: Geographic Variations in Incidence Correlate with Certain Micronutrient Deficiencies

BackgroundThe aetiology of Africa’s easterly-lying corridor of squamous cell oesophageal cancer is poorly understood. Micronutrient deficiencies have been implicated in this cancer in other areas of the world, but their role in Africa is unclear. Without prospective cohorts, timely insights can instead be gained through ecological studies.MethodsAcross Africa we assessed associations between a country’s oesophageal cancer incidence rate and food balance sheet-derived estimates of mean national dietary supplies of 7 nutrients: calcium (Ca), copper (Cu), iron (Fe), iodine (I), magnesium (Mg), selenium (Se) and zinc (Zn). We included 32 countries which had estimates of dietary nutrient supplies and of better-quality GLOBCAN 2012 cancer incidence rates. Bayesian hierarchical Poisson lognormal models were used to estimate incidence rate ratios for oesophageal cancer associated with each nutrient, adjusted for age, gender, energy intake, phytate, smoking and alcohol consumption, as well as their 95% posterior credible intervals (CI). Adult dietary deficiencies were quantified using an estimated average requirements (EAR) cut-point approach.ResultsAdjusted incidence rate ratios for oesophageal cancer associated with a doubling of mean nutrient supply were: for Fe 0.49 (95% CI: 0.29–0.82); Mg 0.58 (0.31–1.08); Se 0.40 (0.18–0.90); and Zn 0.29 (0.11–0.74). There were no associations with Ca, Cu and I. Mean national nutrient supplies exceeded adult EARs for Mg and Fe in most countries. For Se, mean supplies were less than EARs (both sexes) in 7 of the 10 highest oesophageal cancer ranking countries, compared to 23% of remaining countries. For Zn, mean supplies were less than the male EARs in 8 of these 10 highest ranking countries compared to in 36% of other countries.ConclusionsEcological associations are consistent with the potential role of Se and/or Zn deficiencies in squamous cell oesophageal cancer in Africa. Individual-level analytical studies are needed to elucidate their causal role in this setting.     

Profile of cancer in the Eastern Mediterranean region: The need for action

BackgroundMany countries in the Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR) are undergoing marked demographic and socioeconomic transitions that are increasing the cancer burden in region. We sought to examine the national cancer incidence and mortality profiles as a support to regional cancer control planning in the EMR.MethodsGLOBOCAN 2012 data were used to estimate cancer incidence and mortality by country, cancer type, sex and age in 22 EMR countries. We calculated age-standardized incidence and mortality rates (per 100,000) using direct method of standardization.ResultsThe cancer incidence and mortality rates vary considerably between countries in the EMR. Incidence rates were highest in Lebanon (204 and 193 per 100,000 in males and females, respectively). Mortality rates were highest in Lebanon (119) and Egypt (121) among males and in Somalia (117) among females. The profile of common cancers differs substantially by sex. For females, breast cancer is the most common cancer in all 22 countries, followed by cervical cancer, which ranks high only in the lower-income countries in the region. For males, lung, prostate, and colorectal cancer in combination represent almost 30% of the cancer burden in countries that have attained very high levels of human development.ConclusionsThe most common cancers are largely amenable to preventive strategies by primary and/or secondary prevention, hence a need for effective interventions tackling lifestyle risk factors and infections. The high mortality observed from breast and cervical cancer highlights the need to break the stigmas and improve awareness surrounding these cancers.     

Regional Variations in Esophageal Cancer Rates by Census Region in the United States, 1999–2008

Background

Assessment of cancer incidence trends within the U.S. have mostly relied upon Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data, with implicit inference that such is representative of the general population. However, many cancer policy decisions are based at a more granular level. To help inform such, analyses of regional cancer incidence data are needed. Leveraging the unique resource of National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR)-SEER, we assessed whether regional rates and trends of esophageal cancer significantly deviated from national estimates.

Methods

From NPCR-SEER, we extracted cancer case counts and populations for whites aged 45–84 years by calendar year, histology, sex, and census region for the period 1999–2008. We calculated age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs), annual percent changes (APCs), and male-to-female incidence rate ratios (IRRs).

Results

This analysis included 65,823 esophageal adenocarcinomas and 27,094 esophageal squamous cell carcinomas diagnosed during 778 million person-years. We observed significant geographic variability in incidence rates and trends, especially for esophageal adenocarcinomas in males: ASRs were highest in the Northeast (17.7 per 100,000) and Midwest (18.1). Both were significantly higher than the national estimate (16.0). In addition, the Northeast APC was 62% higher than the national estimate (3.19% vs. 1.97%). Lastly, IRRs remained fairly constant across calendar time, despite changes in incidence rates.

Conclusion

Significant regional variations in esophageal cancer incidence trends exist in the U.S. Stable IRRs may indicate the predominant factors affecting incidence rates are similar in men and women.     

Temporal and geospatial trends of pediatric cancer incidence in Nebraska over a 24-year period

BackgroundData from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) revealed that the incidence of pediatric cancer in Nebraska exceeded the national average during 2009–2013. Further investigation could help understand these patterns.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study investigated pediatric cancer (0–19 years old) age adjusted incidence rates (AAR) in Nebraska using the Nebraska Cancer Registry. SEER AARs were also calculated as a proxy for pediatric cancer incidence in the United States (1990–2013) and compared to the Nebraska data. Geographic Information System (GIS) mapping was also used to display the spatial distribution of cancer in Nebraska at the county level. Finally, location–allocation analysis (LAA) was performed to identify a site for the placement of a medical center to best accommodate rural pediatric cancer cases.ResultsThe AAR of pediatric cancers was 173.3 per 1,000,000 in Nebraska compared to 167.1 per 1,000,000 in SEER. The AAR for lymphoma was significantly higher in Nebraska (28.1 vs. 24.6 per 1,000,000; p = 0.009). For the 15–19 age group, the AAR for the 3 most common pediatric cancers were higher in Nebraska (p < 0.05). Twenty-three counties located >2 h driving distance to care facilities showed at least a 10% higher incidence than the overall state AAR. GIS mapping identified a second potential treatment site that would alleviate this geographic burden.ConclusionsRegional differences within Nebraska present a challenge for rural populations. Novel use of GIS mapping to highlight regional differences and identify solutions for access to care issues could be used by similar states.     

Epidemiology of Leptospirosis in Africa: A Systematic Review of a Neglected Zoonosis and a Paradigm for ‘One Health’ in Africa

BackgroundLeptospirosis is an important but neglected bacterial zoonosis that has been largely overlooked in Africa. In this systematic review, we aimed to summarise and compare current knowledge of: (1) the geographic distribution, prevalence, incidence and diversity of acute human leptospirosis in Africa; and (2) the geographic distribution, host range, prevalence and diversity of Leptospira spp. infection in animal hosts in Africa.MethodsFollowing Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, we searched for studies that described (1) acute human leptospirosis and (2) pathogenic Leptospira spp. infection in animals. We performed a literature search using eight international and regional databases for English and non-English articles published between January 1930 to October 2014 that met out pre-defined inclusion criteria and strict case definitions.

Results and Discussion

We identified 97 studies that described acute human leptospirosis (n = 46) or animal Leptospira infection (n = 51) in 26 African countries. The prevalence of acute human leptospirosis ranged from 2 3% to 19 8% (n = 11) in hospital patients with febrile illness. Incidence estimates were largely restricted to the Indian Ocean islands (3 to 101 cases per 100,000 per year (n = 6)). Data from Tanzania indicate that human disease incidence is also high in mainland Africa (75 to 102 cases per 100,000 per year). Three major species (Leptospira borgpetersenii, L. interrogans and L. kirschneri) are predominant in reports from Africa and isolates from a diverse range of serogroups have been reported in human and animal infections. Cattle appear to be important hosts of a large number of Leptospira serogroups in Africa, but few data are available to allow comparison of Leptospira infection in linked human and animal populations. We advocate a ‘One Health’ approach to promote multidisciplinary research efforts to improve understanding of the animal to human transmission of leptospirosis on the African continent.     

Heterogeneity in head and neck cancer incidence among black populations from Africa,the Caribbean and the USA: Analysis of cancer registry data by the AC3

BackgroundAfrica and the Caribbean are projected to have greater increases in Head and neck cancer (HNC) burden in comparison to North America and Europe. The knowledge needed to reinforce prevention in these populations is limited. We compared for the first time, incidence rates of HNC in black populations from African, the Caribbean and USA.MethodsAnnual age-standardized incidence rates (IR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) per 100,000 were calculated for 2013–2015 using population-based cancer registry data for 14,911 HNC cases from the Caribbean (Barbados, Guadeloupe, Trinidad & Tobago, N = 443), Africa (Kenya, Nigeria, N = 772) and the United States (SEER, Florida, N = 13,696). We compared rates by sub-sites and sex among countries using data from registries with high quality and completeness.ResultsIn 2013–2015, compared to other countries, HNC incidence was highest among SEER states (IR: 18.2, 95%CI = 17.6–18.8) among men, and highest in Kenya (IR: 7.5, 95%CI = 6.3–8.7) among women. Nasopharyngeal cancer IR was higher in Kenya for men (IR: 3.1, 95%CI = 2.5–3.7) and women (IR: 1.5, 95%CI = 1.0–1.9). Female oral cavity cancer was also notably higher in Kenya (IR = 3.9, 95%CI = 3.0–4.9). Blacks from SEER states had higher incidence of laryngeal cancer (IR: 5.5, 95%CI = 5.2–5.8) compared to other countries and even Florida blacks (IR: 4.4, 95%CI = 3.9–5.0).ConclusionWe found heterogeneity in IRs for HNC among these diverse black populations; notably, Kenya which had distinctively higher incidence of nasopharyngeal and female oral cavity cancer. Targeted etiological investigations are warranted considering the low consumption of tobacco and alcohol among Kenyan women. Overall, our findings suggest that behavioral and environmental factors are more important determinants of HNC than race.     

Geographic disparities of breast cancer incidence in Portugal at the district level: A spatial age-period-cohort analysis, 1998-2011

BackgroundBreast cancer is the most common malignancy in women world-wide and the most common cause of cancer deaths, which can often be managed with early diagnosis and subsequent treatment. Here, we focus on geographic disparities in incidence within Portugal for three age groups of women (30−49; 50−69; 70−84 years).MethodsAge-period-cohort (APC) models are widely used in cancer surveillance, and these models have recently been extended to allow spatially-varying effects. We apply novel spatial APC models to estimate relative risk and age-adjusted temporal trends at the district level for the 20 districts in Portugal. Our model allows us to report on country-wide trends, but also to investigate geographic disparities between districts and trends within districts.ResultsAge-adjusted breast cancer incidence was increasing over 1998–2011 for all three age groups and in every district in Portugal. However, we detect spatially-structured between-district heterogeneity in relative risk and age-adjusted trends (Net Drifts) for each of the three age groups, which is most pronounced in the highly-screened (50−69yo) and late-onset (70−84yo) groups of women.ConclusionsWe present evidence of disparities in breast cancer incidence at a more granular geographic level than previously reported. Some disparities may be due to latent risk factors, which cannot be accounted for by age, birth year, and geographic location alone.ImpactOur study motivates resuming data collection for breast cancer incidence at the district level in Portugal, as well as the study of exogenous risk factors.     

The high and heterogeneous burden of breast cancer in Hawaii: A unique multiethnic U.S. Population

BackgroundWhile breast cancer incidence and mortality rates differ across racial/ethnic populations in the U.S., little is known about Asian and Pacific Island subpopulations. Hawaii is one of the most racially/ethnically diverse states in the U.S. Overall, Hawaii ranks 5^th highest for breast cancer incidence in the nation (2010–2014) and rates have increased in recent years despite a stable national trend. In contrast, for breast cancer mortality, Hawaii has the 3^rd lowest rate in the nation, with rates demonstrating a steady decline for nearly 3 decades.MethodsWe examined incidence and mortality trends from 1984–2013 across the five major racial/ethnic populations of Hawaii (Native Hawaiian, White, Japanese, Chinese, and Filipino) using Hawaii’s Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry data.ResultsWith the exception of Chinese, all groups experienced increasing incidence over the thirty year period. While Japanese experienced the most pronounced recent increase, with incidence now exceeding that of Whites, their mortality rates have remained low for decades. Native Hawaiians have consistently had the highest incidence and mortality rates in the state. The incidence rates of hormone receptor (HR)-positive breast cancer were higher among Japanese and Native Hawaiians as compared to Whites. Relative to Whites, Native Hawaiians also had a higher incidence rate of the HER2-positive subtype and, Japanese, of the triple-negative (HR-/HER2-) subtype of breast cancer.ConclusionsStudies such as this underscore the importance of considering the heterogeneity in breast cancer rates and subtypes across the different racial/ethnic populations.     

Temporal and geographical variations of thyroid cancer incidence and mortality in France during 1986–2015: The impact of overdiagnosis

BackgroundFrance is among the countries showing fastest growth of thyroid cancer (TC) incidence and highest incidence rates in Europe. This study aimed to clarify the temporal and geographical variations of TC in France and to quantify the impact of overdiagnosis.MethodsWe obtained TC incidence data in 1986–2015, and mortality data in 1976–2015, for eight French departments covering 8% of the national population, and calculated the age-standardised rates (ASR). We estimated the average annual percent changes (AAPC) of TC incidence, overall and by department and histological subtype. Numbers and proportions of TC cases attributable to overdiagnosis were estimated by department and period, based on the comparison between the shape of the age-specific curves with that observed prior to changes in diagnostic practice.ResultsDuring 1986–2015, there were 13,557 TC cases aged 15–84 years. Large variations of TC incidence were observed across departments, with the highest ASR and the fastest increase in Isère. Papillary subtype accounted for 82.8% of the cases, and presented an AAPC of 7.0% and 7.6% in women and men, respectively. Anaplastic TC incidence decreased annually 3.0% in women and 0.8% in men. Mortality rates declined consistently for all departments. The absolute number (and proportion) of TC cases attributable to overdiagnosis grew from 1074 (66%) in 1986–1995 to 3830 (72%) in 2006–2015 in women, and varied substantially across departments.ConclusionsOverdiagnosis plays an important role in the temporal and regional variations of TC incidence in France. Monitoring the time trends and regulating the regional healthcare practice are needed to reduce its impact.     

Cancer incidence in Iran in 2014: Results of the Iranian National Population-based Cancer Registry

BackgroundWe aimed to report, for the first time, the results of the Iranian National Population-based Cancer Registry (INPCR) for the year 2014.MethodsTotal population of Iran in 2014 was 76,639,000. The INPCR covered 30 out of 31 provinces (98% of total population). It registered only cases diagnosed with malignant new primary tumors. The main sources for data collection included pathology center, hospitals as well as death registries. Quality assessment and analysis of data were performed by CanReg-5 software. Age standardized incidence rates (ASR) (per 100,000) were reported at national and subnational levels.ResultsOverall, 112,131 new cancer cases were registered in INPCR in 2014, of which 60,469 (53.9%) were male. The diagnosis of cancer was made by microscopic confirmation in 76,568 cases (68.28%). The ASRs of all cancers were 177.44 and 141.18 in male and female, respectively. Cancers of the stomach (ASR = 21.24), prostate (18.41) and colorectum (16.57) were the most common cancers in men and the top three cancers in women were malignancies of breast (34.53), colorectum (11.86) and stomach (9.44). The ASR of cervix uteri cancer in women was 1.78. Our findings suggested high incidence of cancers of the esophagus, stomach and lung in North/ North West of Iran.ConclusionOur results showed that Iran is a medium-risk area for incidence of cancers. We found differences in the most common cancers in Iran comparing to those reported for the World. Our results also suggested geographical diversities in incidence rates of cancers in different subdivisions of Iran.     

Escalating burden of breast cancer in southern Thailand: Analysis of 1990–2010 incidence and prediction of future trends

BackgroundThailand is undergoing an epidemiologic transition, with decreasing incidence of infectious diseases and increasing rates of chronic conditions, including cancer. Breast cancer has the highest incidence rates among females both in the southern region Thailand and throughout Thailand. However, there is a lack of research on the epidemiology of this and other cancers.MethodsHere we use cancer incidence data from the Songkhla Cancer Registry to characterize and analyze the incidence of breast cancer in Southern Thailand. We use joinpoint analysis, age-period-cohort models and nordpred analysis to investigate the incidence of breast cancer in Southern Thailand from 1990 to 2010 and project future trends from 2010 to 2029.ResultsWe found that age-adjusted breast cancer incidence rates in Southern Thailand increased by almost 300% from 1990 to 2010 going from 10.0 to 27.8 cases per 100,000 person-years. Both period and cohort effects played a role in shaping the increase in incidence. Three distinct incidence projection methods consistently suggested that incidence rates will continue to increase in the future with incidence for women age 50 and above increasing at a higher rate than for women below 50.ConclusionsTo date, this is the first study to examine Thai breast cancer incidence from a regional registry. This study provides a basis for future planning strategies in breast cancer prevention and to guide hypotheses for population-based epidemiologic research in Thailand.     

Cancer risk and all-cause mortality among Norwegian military United Nations peacekeepers deployed to Kosovo between 1999 and 2011

ObjectiveMedia reports of leukaemia and other cancers among European United Nations (UN) peacekeepers who served in the Balkans, and a scientific finding of excess Hodgkin lymphoma among Italian UN peacekeepers who served in Bosnia, suggested a link between cancer incidence and depleted uranium (DU) exposure. This spurred several studies on cancer risk among UN peacekeepers who served in the Balkans. Although these studies turned out to be negative, the debate about possible cancers and other health risks caused by DU exposure continues. The aim of the present study was to investigate cancer incidence and all-cause mortality in a cohort of 6076 (4.4% women) Norwegian military UN peacekeepers deployed to Kosovo between 1999 and 2011.MethodsThe cohort was followed for cancer incidence and mortality from 1999 to 2011. Standardised incidence ratios for cancer (SIR) and mortality ratios (SMR) were calculated from national rates.ResultsSixty-nine cancer cases and 38 deaths were observed during follow-up. Cancer incidence in the cohort was similar to that in the general Norwegian population. No cancers in the overall cohort significantly exceeded incidence rates in the general Norwegian population, but there was an elevated SIR for melanoma of skin in men of 1.90 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.95–3.40). A fivefold increased incidence of bladder cancer was observed among men who served in Kosovo for ≥1 year, based on 2 excess cases (SIR = 5.27; 95% CI 1.09–15.4). All-cause mortality was half the expected rate (SMR = 0.49; 95% CI 0.35–0.67).ConclusionOur study did not support the suggestion that UN peacekeeping service in Kosovo is associated with increased cancer risk.     

County-level characteristics associated with incidence,late-stage incidence,and mortality from screenable cancers

BackgroundCancer screening differs by rurality and racial residential segregation, but the relationship between these county-level characteristics is understudied. Understanding this relationship and its implications for cancer outcomes could inform interventions to decrease cancer disparities.MethodsWe linked county-level information from national data sources: 2008–2012 cancer incidence, late-stage incidence, and mortality rates (for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer) from U.S. Cancer Statistics and the National Death Index; metropolitan status from U.S. Department of Agriculture; residential segregation derived from American Community Survey; and prevalence of cancer screening from National Cancer Institute’s Small Area Estimates. We used multivariable, sparse Poisson generalized linear mixed models to assess cancer incidence, late-stage incidence, and mortality rates by county-level characteristics, controlling for density of physicians and median household income.ResultsCancer incidence, late-stage incidence, and mortality rates were 6–18% lower in metropolitan counties for breast and colorectal cancer, and 2–4% lower in more segregated counties for breast and colorectal cancer. Generally, reductions in cancer associated with residential segregation were limited to non-metropolitan counties. Cancer incidence, late-stage incidence, and mortality rates were associated with screening, with rates for corresponding cancers that were 2–9% higher in areas with more breast and colorectal screening, but 2–15% lower in areas with more cervical screening.DiscussionLower cancer burden was observed in counties that were metropolitan and more segregated. Effect modification was observed by metropolitan status and county-level residential segregation, indicating that residential segregation may impact healthcare access differently in different county types. Additional studies are needed to inform interventions to reduce county-level disparities in cancer incidence, late-stage incidence, and mortality.     

Incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer on a rapid rise in Taiwan, 1999–2012

BackgroundAccumulating data has revealed a rapidly rising incidence of pancreatic cancer in Western countries, but convincing evidence from the East remains sparse. We aimed to quantify how the incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic malignancy changed over time in Taiwan, and to develop future projection for the next decade.MethodsThis nationwide population-based study analyzed the Taiwan National Cancer Registry and the National Cause of Death Registry to calculate the annual incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic malignancy from 1999 to 2012 in this country. The secular trend of the incidence was also examined by data from the National Health Insurance Research Database.ResultsA total of 21,986 incident cases of pancreatic cancer and 20,720 related deaths occurred during the study period. The age-standardized incidence rate increased from 3.7 per 100,000 in 1999 to 5.0 per 100,000 in 2012, with a significant rising trend (P < 0.01). The increase was nationwide, consistently across subgroups stratified by age, gender, geographic region, and urbanization. Data from the National Health Insurance Research Database corroborated the rise of incident pancreatic cancer. Mortality also increased with time, with the age-standardized rate rising from 3.5 per 100,000 in 1999 to 4.1 per 100,000 in 2012 (P < 0.01). In accordance with the incidence, the mortality trend was consistent in all subgroups. Both the incidence and mortality were projected to further increase by approximately 20% from 2012 to 2027.ConclusionThe incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer have been rapidly rising and presumably will continue to rise in Taiwan.     

Trends in incidence of,and mortality from,cervical lesions in Ireland: Baseline data for future evaluation of the national cervical screening programme

AimTo investigate incidence and mortality trends for cervical lesions in Ireland in the period 1994–2008.MethodsWe used data from the National Cancer Registry, Ireland and national death registration data to calculate age-standardised rates for the periods of interest. We used standardised rate ratios to test whether incidence was associated with socio-demographic variables and used Joinpoint to examine trends by morphology grouping.ResultsIncidence of cervical cancer and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN3) rose over the period 1994–2008. The annual percentage change for cervical cancer was 1.8% and that for CIN3 was 3.8%. Women resident in the most deprived areas had invasive cervical cancer incidence almost twice as high as those resident in the least deprived areas (standardised rate ratio (SRR) = 1.8). Comparing incidence in Ireland to England and Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland in the three years 2005–2007, the SRRs (other areas vs. Ireland) were 0.70, 0.88 and 0.84 respectively. Cervical cancer rates have fallen in these countries in the same period that there is a rise demonstrated in Ireland.ConclusionIncidence rates of cervical cancer rose in Ireland steadily, albeit modestly, during 1994–2008, most likely due to long-term changes in patterns of sexual behaviour and contraceptive use. A more pronounced rise in CIN3 rates point to considerable levels of opportunistic screening during this period. Mortality rates have changed little over the past four decades, in contrast to trends in countries with well-organised screening programmes.     

Cancer Incidence following Expansion of HIV Treatment in Botswana

BackgroundThe expansion of combination antiretroviral treatment (ART) in southern Africa has dramatically reduced mortality due to AIDS-related infections, but the impact of ART on cancer incidence in the region is unknown. We sought to describe trends in cancer incidence in Botswana during implementation of the first public ART program in Africa.MethodsWe included 8479 incident cases from the Botswana National Cancer Registry during a period of significant ART expansion in Botswana, 2003–2008, when ART coverage increased from 7.3% to 82.3%. We fit Poisson models of age-adjusted cancer incidence and counts in the total population, and in an inverse probability weighted population with known HIV status, over time and estimated ART coverage.FindingsDuring this period 61.6% of cancers were diagnosed in HIV-infected individuals and 45.4% of all cancers in men and 36.4% of all cancers in women were attributable to HIV. Age-adjusted cancer incidence decreased in the HIV infected population by 8.3% per year (95% CI -14.1 to -2.1%). However, with a progressively larger and older HIV population the annual number of cancers diagnosed remained constant (0.0% annually, 95% CI -4.3 to +4.6%). In the overall population, incidence of Kaposi’s sarcoma decreased (4.6% annually, 95% CI -6.9 to -2.2), but incidence of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (+11.5% annually, 95% CI +6.3 to +17.0%) and HPV-associated cancers increased (+3.9% annually, 95% CI +1.4 to +6.5%). Age-adjusted cancer incidence among individuals without HIV increased 7.5% per year (95% CI +1.4 to +15.2%).InterpretationExpansion of ART in Botswana was associated with decreased age-specific cancer risk. However, an expanding and aging population contributed to continued high numbers of incident cancers in the HIV population. Increased capacity for early detection and treatment of HIV-associated cancer needs to be a new priority for programs in Africa.     

Examining determinants of geographic variation in colorectal cancer mortality in North Carolina: A spatial analysis approach

PurposeA recent study using national data from 2000 to 2009 identified colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality “hotspots” in 11 counties of North Carolina (NC). In this study, we used more recent, state-specific data to investigate the county-level determinants of geographic variation in NC through a geospatial analytic approach.MethodUsing NC CRC mortality data from 2003 to 2013, we first conducted clustering analysis to confirm spatial dependence. Spatial economic models were then used to incorporate spatial structure to estimate the association between determinants and CRC mortality. We included county-level data on socio-demographic characteristics, access and quality of healthcare, behavioral risk factors (CRC screening, obesity, and cigarette smoking), and urbanicity. Due to correlation among screening, obesity and quality of healthcare, we combined these factors to form a cumulative risk group variable in the analysis.ResultsWe confirmed the existence of spatial dependence and identified clusters of elevated CRC mortality rates in NC counties. Using a spatial lag model, we found significant interaction effect between CRC risk groups and socioeconomic deprivation. Higher CRC mortality rates were also associated with rural counties with large towns compared to urban counties.ConclusionOur findings depicted a spatial diffusion process of CRC mortality rates across NC counties, demonstrated intertwined effects between SES deprivation and behavioral risks in shaping CRC mortality at area-level, and identified counties with high CRC mortality that were also deprived in multiple factors. These results suggest interventions to reduce geographic variation in CRC mortality should develop multifaceted strategies and work through shared resources in neighboring areas.     

Projected estimates of cancer in Canada in 2022

Background:Regular cancer surveillance is crucial for understanding where progress is being made and where more must be done. We sought to provide an overview of the expected burden of cancer in Canada in 2022.Methods:We obtained data on new cancer incidence from the National Cancer Incidence Reporting System (1984–1991) and Canadian Cancer Registry (1992–2018). Mortality data (1984–2019) were obtained from the Canadian Vital Statistics — Death Database. We projected cancer incidence and mortality counts and rates to 2022 for 22 cancer types by sex and province or territory. Rates were age standardized to the 2011 Canadian standard population.Results:An estimated 233 900 new cancer cases and 85 100 cancer deaths are expected in Canada in 2022. We expect the most commonly diagnosed cancers to be lung overall (30 000), breast in females (28 600) and prostate in males (24 600). We also expect lung cancer to be the leading cause of cancer death, accounting for 24.3% of all cancer deaths, followed by colorectal (11.0%), pancreatic (6.7%) and breast cancers (6.5%). Incidence and mortality rates are generally expected to be higher in the eastern provinces of Canada than the western provinces.Interpretation:Although overall cancer rates are declining, the number of cases and deaths continues to climb, owing to population growth and the aging population. The projected high burden of lung cancer indicates a need for increased tobacco control and improvements in early detection and treatment. Success in breast and colorectal cancer screening and treatment likely account for the continued decline in their burden. The limited progress in early detection and new treatments for pancreatic cancer explains why it is expected to be the third leading cause of cancer death in Canada.

The impact of cancer on the Canadian population and health care systems is substantial. Cancer is the leading cause of death in Canada^1,2 and previous estimates have shown that 43% of all people in Canada are expected to receive a cancer diagnosis in their lifetime.³ With an aging and growing population, the number of new cancer cases and deaths in Canada is also increasing.⁴ In addition to its impact on health, cancer is costly. The economic burden of cancer care in Canada rose from $2.9 billion in 2005 to $7.5 billion in 2012, annually.⁵Given the considerable health and economic impact of cancer in Canada, comprehensive and reliable surveillance information is necessary for identifying where progress has been made and where more attention and resources are needed. To meet these needs, the Canadian Cancer Statistics Advisory Committee, in collaboration with the Canadian Cancer Society, Statistics Canada and the Public Health Agency of Canada, produces the latest surveillance statistics on cancer in Canada.Cancer data often lag the current date by several years, owing to the time associated with collecting, verifying and analyzing the data. Short-term cancer incidence and mortality rates can be projected by extrapolating past trends to estimate future trends, using statistical models. These short-term projections provide a more up-to-date estimate of the cancer landscape in Canada. Incidence and mortality counts, along with age-standardized rates, provide a picture of the impact of cancer in Canada, which is essential for resource planning, research and informing cancer-control programs.Canadian Cancer Statistics 2021³ provided detailed estimates of cancer incidence, mortality and survival in Canada by age, sex, geographic region and over time for 22 cancer types.³ Here, we provide updated estimates of the counts and age-standardized rates of new cancer cases (incidence) and cancer deaths (mortality) expected in 2022 by sex and province and territory, for all ages combined.     

Increasing Gap Between Thyroid Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Urban Shanghai,China: An Analysis Spanning 43 Years

ObjectiveTo examine the secular trends of thyroid cancer incidence and mortality and to estimate the proportion of thyroid cancer cases potentially attributable to overdiagnosis.MethodsData on thyroid cancer cases from 1973 to 2015 were obtained from the Shanghai Cancer Registry. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was evaluated using the joinpoint regression analysis. The age, period, and birth cohort effects were assessed using an age-period-cohort model. The overdiagnosis of thyroid cancer cases was estimated based on the difference between observed and expected incidences using the rates of Nordic countries as reference.ResultsFrom 1973 to 2015, the number of thyroid cancer cases was 23 117, and 75% of the patients were women. The age-standardized rates were seven- to eightfold higher from 2013 to 2015 than from 1973 to 1977. Compared with relatively stable mortality, thyroid cancer incidence was dramatically increased from 2002 to 2015 in both sexes, with significant trends (men: AAPC = 21.84%, 95% CI: 18.77%-24.98%, P < .001; women: AAPC = 18.55%, 95% CI: 16.49%-20.64%, P < .001). The proportion of overdiagnosis has gradually increased over time, rising from 68% between 2003 and 2007 to more than 90% between 2013 and 2015. This increasing trend appeared to be similar between men and women.ConclusionAn increasing gap between thyroid cancer incidence and mortality was observed in Shanghai, and overdiagnosis has contributed substantially to the rise of incidence, which calls for an urgent update on the practice of thyroid examination.