Uncertainty in life cycle costing for long-range infrastructure. Part II: guidance and suitability of applied methods to address uncertainty

Life cycle costing (LCC) is the state-of-the-art method to economically evaluate long-term projects over their life spans. However, uncertainty in long-range planning raises concerns about LCC results. In Part I of this series, we developed a holistic framework of the different types of uncertainty in infrastructure LCCs. We also collected methods to address these uncertainties. The aim of Part II is to evaluate the suitability of methods to cope with uncertainty in LCC. Part I addressed two research gaps. It presented a systematic collection of uncertainties and methods in LCC and, furthermore, provided a holistic categorization of both. However, Part I also raised new issues. First, a combined analysis of sources and methods is still outstanding. Such an investigation would reveal the suitability of different methods to address a certain type of uncertainty. Second, what has not been assessed so far is what types of uncertainty are insufficiently addressed in LCC. This would be a feature to improve accuracy of LCC results within LCC, by suggesting options to better cope with uncertainty. To address these research gaps, we conducted a systematic literature review. Part II analyzed the suitability of methods to address uncertainties. The suitability depends on data availability, type of data (tangible, intangible, random, non-random), screened hotspots, and tested modeling specifications. We identified types of uncertainties and methods that have been insufficiently addressed. The methods include probabilistic modeling such as design of experiment or subset simulation and evolutionary algorithm and Bayesian modeling such as the Bayesian latent Markov decision process. Subsequently, we evaluated learning potential from other life cycle assessment (LCA) and life cycle sustainability assessment (LCSA). This analysis revealed 28 possible applications that have not yet been used in LCC. Lastly, we developed best practices for LCC practitioners. This systematic review complements prior research on uncertainty in LCC for infrastructure, as laid out in Part I. Part II concludes that all relevant methods to address uncertainty are currently applied in LCC. Yet, the level of application is different. Moreover, not all methods are equally suited to address different categories of uncertainty. This review offers guidance on what to do for each source and type of uncertainty. It illustrates how methods can address both based on current practice in LCC, LCA, and LCSA. The findings of Part II encourage a dialog between practitioners of LCC, LCA, and LCSA to advance research and practice in uncertainty analysis.     

Life cycle assessment and life cycle costing of road infrastructure in residential neighbourhoods

Purpose

The built environment consists of a huge amount of infrastructure, such as roads and utilities. The objective of this paper is to assess the life cycle financial and environmental impact of road infrastructure in residential neighbourhoods and to analyse the relative contribution of road infrastructure in the total impact of neighbourhoods.

Methods

Various road sections are analysed based on an integrated life cycle approach, combining life cycle costing and life cycle assessment. To deal with complexity, a hierarchic assessment structure, using the principles of the “element method for cost control”, is implemented. Four neighbourhood models with diverse built densities are compared to gain insight in the relative impact of road infrastructure in neighbourhoods.

Results and discussion

The results reveal important financial and environmental impact differences between the road sections analysed. Main contributors to the life cycle financial and environmental impact are the surface layer and electrical and piped services. The contribution of road infrastructure to the total neighbourhood impact, ranging from 2 to 9 % of the total cost, is relatively limited, compared to buildings, but not negligible in low built density neighbourhoods.

Conclusions

Good spatial planning of the neighbourhood is recommended to reduce the amount of road infrastructure and the related financial and environmental impact. The priority should be to design denser neighbourhood layouts, before decreasing the financial and environmental impact of the road sections.

     

Comparative life cycle assessment and life cycle costing of lodging in the Himalaya

Purpose

The main aim of the study is to assess the environmental and economic impacts of the lodging sector located in the Himalayan region of Nepal, from a life cycle perspective. The assessment should support decision making in technology and material selection for minimal environmental and economic burden in future construction projects.

Methods

The study consists of the life cycle assessment and life cycle costing of lodging in three building types: traditional, semi-modern and modern. The life cycle stages under analysis include raw material acquisition, manufacturing, construction, use, maintenance and material replacement. The study includes a sensitivity analysis focusing on the lifespan of buildings, occupancy rate and discount and inflation rates. The functional unit was formulated as the ‘Lodging of one additional guest per night’, and the time horizon is 50 years of building lifespan. Both primary and secondary data were used in the life cycle inventory.

Results and discussion

The modern building has the highest global warming potential (kg CO_2-eq) as well as higher costs over 50 years of building lifespan. The results show that the use stage is responsible for the largest share of environmental impacts and costs, which are related to energy use for different household activities. The use of commercial materials in the modern building, which have to be transported mostly from the capital in the buildings, makes the higher GWP in the construction and replacement stages. Furthermore, a breakdown of the building components shows that the roof and wall of the building are the largest contributors to the production-related environmental impact.

Conclusions

The findings suggest that the main improvement opportunities in the lodging sector lie in the reduction of impacts on the use stage and in the choice of materials for wall and roof.

     

Multi-actor multi-criteria sustainability assessment framework for energy and industrial systems in life cycle perspective under uncertainties. Part 1: weighting method

Purpose

Life cycle sustainability assessment is meaningful for the decision-makers/stakeholders to select the most sustainable option among multiple alternatives; however, there are usually various severe uncertainty problems in sustainability-oriented decision-making, i.e., the vagueness and ambiguity that existed in human judgments and the lack of information. This study aims at developing a novel life cycle multi-criteria sustainability assessment method for helping the decision-makers/stakeholders to determine the sustainability level of the industrial and energy systems. In part 1, an improved interval analytic hierarchy process (AHP) which allows multiple decision-makers/stakeholders to participate in the decision-making was developed to determine the weights of the criteria which were used in life cycle sustainability assessment.

Methods

It is usually difficult for the decision-makers/stakeholders to use the numbers from 1 to 9 and their reciprocals for determining the comparison matrix when using the traditional AHP method for weight calculation, because human judgments usually involve various uncertainties. In order to the overcome this weak point of the traditional AHP, an improved AHP, so-called interval AHP, in which, multiple decision-makers/stakeholders are allowed to participate in the decision-making and allowed to use interval numbers instead of crisp numbers to establish the comparison matrix for determining the weights of the criteria for life cycle sustainability assessment, has been developed.

Results and discussion

The proposed method was used to determine the weights of the four aspects for life cycle sustainability assessment including economic, safety, social, and environmental aspects. Five representative stakeholders were invited to participate in the decision-making. After Monte Carlo simulation, the final weights of the four aspects have been determined with the proposed interval AHP.

Conclusions and perspectives

An interval AHP method was developed for determining the weights of the criteria for life cycle sustainability assessment; the decision-makers are allowed to use interval numbers to establish the comparison matrix for weight calculation. The weighting coefficients determined by Monte Carlo method can accurately reflect the preferences and willingness of multi-actor comparing with the traditional AHP method. This paper merely presents a novel method to calculate the weights of the criteria for life cycle sustainability assessment, but the method for determining the sustainability performance has been presented in part 2.

     

Multi-actor multi-criteria sustainability assessment framework for energy and industrial systems in life cycle perspective under uncertainties. Part 2: improved extension theory

Purpose

The concept of sustainability and sustainable development has been widely incorporated in energy and industrial systems. This paper is the second part of a two-paper series dealing with multi-actor multi-criteria sustainability assessment of alternative energy and industrial systems in life cycle perspective under uncertainties.

Methods

The criteria system including four macroscopic aspects (environmental, safety, social and economic aspects) has been developed for sustainability assessment of energy and industrial systems. An improved extension theory which can address interval decision-making matrix has been developed for determining the sustainability degree of the energy and industrial systems.

Results and discussion

The weights of the criteria for sustainability assessment are the first part of the two-paper series. An illustrative case has been studied by the proposed multi-criteria decision-making method, and the sustainability of six alternative options for the production of a 1-t product was investigated. The sustainability degree of these six alternative options can be determined by the proposed method.

Conclusions and perspectives

A methodology for multi-actor multi-criteria sustainability assessment of energy and industrial options has been developed in this study, the traditional extension theory has been modified to deal with the uncertainty problems and the proposed method can rank the alternative energy and industrial systems with the decision-making matrix in which the data of the alternatives with respect to the evaluation criteria are intervals. In the improved extension theory, sustainability has been dived into five grades: excellent, good, satisfied, barely adequate and fail. According to the method for calculating the weights of the criteria for sustainability assessment proposed in part 1, these weights were used to calculate the integrated dependent degree which is a measure of what degree an alternative belongs to the classical fields. An optimal programming model for maximizing the satisfied degree has been developed to rank the sustainability sequence of the alternative options and determine the sustainability degree of each alternative.

     

Correction to: Methodology to address potential impacts of plastic emissions in life cycle assessment

The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment -     

Methodology to address potential impacts of plastic emissions in life cycle assessment

The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment - Products made of plastic often appear to have lower environmental impacts than alternatives. However, present life cycle assessments (LCA) do...     

Subcategory assessment method for social life cycle assessment. Part 1: methodological framework

Purpose

The aim of this work is to propose an objective method for evaluating subcategories in social life cycle impact assessment (S-LCIA). Methods for assessing subcategories have been available since 2006, but a number of these either fail to include all the subcategories envisaged in the guidelines for S-LCA (UNEP/SETAC 2009) or are subjective in their assessment of each subcategory.

Methods

The methodology is characterized by four steps: (i) the use of the organization as unit process, in which it was decided to assess the social profile of the organization responsible for the processes involved in the product life cycle, (ii) definition of the basic requirement to assess each subcategory, (iii) definition of levels based on the environment context or organizational practice and the data availability and (iv) assignment of a quantitative value.

Results and discussion

The result of the method applied was the development of the subcategory assessment method (SAM). SAM is a characterization model that evaluates subcategories during the impact assessment phase. This method is based on the behaviour of organizations responsible for the processes along the product life cycle, thereby enabling a social performance evaluation. The method, thus, presents levels for each subcategory assessment. Level A indicates that the organization exhibits proactive behaviour by promoting basic requirement (BR) practices along the value chain. Level B means that the organization fulfils the BR. Levels C and D are assigned to organizations that do not meet the BR and are differentiated by their context. The greatest difficulty when developing SAM was the definition of the BR to be used in the evaluation of the subcategories, though many indications were present in the methodological sheets.

Conclusions

SAM makes it possible to go from inventory to subcategory assessment. The method supports evaluation across life cycle products, thereby ensuring a more objective evaluation of the social behaviour of organizations and applicable in different countries.

Recommendations

When using SAM, it is advisable to update the data for the context environment. The method might be improved by using data for the social context that would consider not only the country, but also the region, sector and product concerned. A further improvement could be a subdivision of the levels to better encompass differences between organizations. It is advisable to test SAM by applying it to a case study.     

Integrating life cycle assessment (LCA) and life cycle costing (LCC) in the early phases of aircraft structural design: an elevator case study

Purpose

The main objective of this paper is to develop a model that will combine economic and environmental assessment tools to support the composite material selection of aircraft structures in the early phases of design and application of the tool for an aircraft elevator.

Methods

An integrated life cycle cost (LCC) and life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology was used as part of the sustainable design approach for the laminate stacking sequence design. The model considered is the aircraft structure made of carbon fiber reinforce plastic prepreg and processed via hand layup-autoclave process which is the preferred method for the aircraft industry. The model was applied to a cargo aircraft elevator case study by comparing six different laminate configurations and two different carbon fiber prepreg materials across aircraft’s entire life cycle.

Results and discussion

The results show, in line with other studies using different methodologies (e.g., life cycle engineering, or LCE), that the combination of LCA with LCC is a worthwhile approach for comparing the different laminate configurations in terms of cost and environmental impact to support composite laminate stacking design by providing the best trade-off between cost and environment. Elevator LCC reduces 19% by changing the material type and applying different ply orientations. Elevator LCA score reduces 53% by selecting the optimum instead of best technical solution that minimizes the displacement. Improving the structural performance does not always lead to an increase in the cost.

     

A life cycle model for high-speed rail infrastructure: environmental inventories and assessment of the Tours-Bordeaux railway in France

Purpose

The objective of the study is to progress towards a comprehensive component-based Life Cycle Assessment model with clear and reusable Life Cycle Inventories (LCIs) for high-speed rail (HSR) infrastructure components, and to assess the main environmental impacts of HSR infrastructure over its lifespan, to finally determine environmental hotpots and good practices.

Methods

A process-based LCA compliant with ISO 14040 and 14044 is performed. Construction-stage LCIs rely on data collection conducted with the concessionaire of the HSR line combined with EcoInvent 3.1 inventories. Use and End-of-Life stages LCIs rest on expert feedback scenarios and field data. A set of 13 midpoint indicators is proposed to capture the diversity of the environmental damage: climate change, consumptions of primary energy and non-renewable resources, human toxicity and ecotoxicities, eutrophication, acidification, radioactive and bulk wastes, stratospheric ozone depletion, and summer smog. Three characterization methods are used: the “Cumulative Energy Demand” method to quantify energy demand, the EDIP method for waste productions, and the CML method for the rest.

Results and discussion

The study shows major contributions to environmental impact from rails (10–71%), roadbed (3–48%), and civil engineering structures (4–28%). More limited impact is noted from ballast (1–22%), building machines (0–17%), sleepers (4–11%), and power supply system (2–12%). The two last components, chairs and fasteners, have negligible impact (max. 1 and 3% of total contributions, respectively). Direct transportation can contribute up to 18% of total impact. The production and maintenance stages contribute roughly equally to environmental deterioration (respectively average of 62 and 59%). Because the End-of-Life (EoL) mainly includes recycling with environmental credit accounted for in our 100:100 approach, this stage has globally a positive impact (??9 to ??98%) on all the impact categories except terrestrial ecotoxicity (58%), radioactive waste (11%), and ozone depletion (8%). Contribution analyses show that if concrete production is one of the important contributing processes over the construction stage, primary steel production is unquestionably the most important process on all the impact categories over the entire life cycle.

Conclusions

These results are of interest for public authorities and the rail industry, in order to consider the full life cycle impacts of transportation infrastructure in a decision-making process with better understanding and inclusion of the environmental constraints. Suggestions are provided in this way for life cycle good practices—for instance as regards gravel recycling choices—and additional research to reduce the impact of current major contributors.

     

Reusable vs. disposable cups revisited: guidance in life cycle comparisons addressing scenario,model, and parameter uncertainties for the US consumer

Purpose

Despite interest in an environmentally conscious decision between disposable and reusable cups, a comprehensive and current study for US consumers is not yet available. Guidance in favor of single-use cups rely on outdated or non-ISO-compliant results with limited uncertainty information. Such claims are insufficiently generalizable. This article delivers an updated comparative life cycle impact assessment of reusable ceramic cups and single-use expanded polystyrene cups.

Methods

The ReCiPe midpoint model was selected. Scenario uncertainties are addressed by evaluating compliant standard dishwashing appliance models from 2004 to 2013 used in 26 US subregional utility grids. A utility snapshot from 2009 is applied with extension to recent shifts in generation from increased penetration of natural gas and renewable energy. Parameter uncertainty is quantified through statistical methods.

Results

Where there is statistical difference, results almost entirely favor reusable cups in the USA. For climate change, 16 % of users have higher impact for ceramic cups washed in 2013 by minimally compliant dishwashers. Higher climate change impacts for 32 % of reusable cup users is indicated with 2004 average dishwashers, though using a cup twice between washes shifts the impact in favor of the reusable cup.

Conclusions

Disposable cup scenarios do not account for film sleeves, lids, printing, and less conservative shipping weights and distances and therefore reflect a best case scenario. Impact for reusable cups is expected to decrease further as the electricity mix becomes less CO₂-intensive with replacement of coal-fired generators by natural gas, wind, and solar and as less efficient dishwashers are replaced with new units compliant to current laws.     

Integrating life cycle assessment (LCA) and quantitative risk assessment (QRA) to address model uncertainties: defining a landfill reference case under varying environmental and engineering conditions

The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment - Model uncertainties in life cycle assessment (LCA) can arise due to the lack or limited knowledge of the system (epistemic), or due to the...     

A graphical representation for consequential life cycle assessment of future technologies. Part 1: methodological framework

Purpose  

To construct future visions of how innovative technologies should be used in the envisioned sustainable society while being aware of system-wide environmental impacts, consequential life cycle assessment (c-LCA) is useful. To systematically evaluate the technologies being aware of uncertainties in choice of technologies made in the future, in this article, we propose a novel graphical representation for theoretical range of impacts that contain results from c-LCA studies. This approach allows analyses of the consequences of the technology introduction without conducting detailed modeling of consequences.     

Incorporating the impacts of climate change into infrastructure life cycle assessments: A case study of pavement service life performance

Climate change is expected to impact both the operational and structural performance of infrastructures such as roads, bridges, and buildings. However, most past life cycle assessment (LCA) studies do not consider how the operational/structural performance of infrastructure will be affected by a changing climate. The goal of this research was to develop a framework for integrating climate change impacts into LCA of infrastructure systems. To illustrate this framework, a flexible pavement case study was considered where life‐cycle environmental impacts were compared across a climate change scenario and several time horizons. The Mechanistic‐Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) was utilized to capture the structural performance of each pavement performance scenario and performance distresses were used as inputs into a pavement LCA model that considered construction and maintenance/rehabilitation materials and activities, change in relative surface albedo, and impacts due to traffic. The results from the case study suggest that climate change will likely call for adaptive design requirements in the latter half of this century but in the near‐to‐mid term, the international roughness index (IRI) and total rutting degradation profile was very close to the historical climate run. While the inclusion of mechanistic performance models with climate change data as input introduces new uncertainties to infrastructure‐based LCA, sensitivity analyses runs were performed to better understand a comprehensive range of result outcomes. Through further infrastructure cases the framework could be streamlined to better suit specific infrastructures where only the infrastructure components with the greatest sensitivity to climate change are explicitly modeled using mechanistic‐empirical modeling routines.     

Coinfection alters the playing field: herpesviruses induce acyclovir to inhibit HIV

The antiherpes drug acyclovir was found to inhibit HIV following its phosphorylation by human herpesviruses, providing a hypothesis to explain the observed beneficial effects of acyclovir therapy on HIV viral load and HIV disease progression. This report underscores the importance of studying HIV in the context of microbial copathogens.