EPICE-HIV: An Epidemiologic Cost-Effectiveness Model for HIV Treatment

The goal of this research was to establish a new and innovative framework for cost-effectiveness modeling of HIV-1 treatment, simultaneously considering both clinical and epidemiological outcomes. EPICE-HIV is a multi-paradigm model based on a within-host micro-simulation model for the disease progression of HIV-1 infected individuals and an agent-based sexual contact network (SCN) model for the transmission of HIV-1 infection. It includes HIV-1 viral dynamics, CD4⁺ T cell infection rates, and pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics modeling. Disease progression of HIV-1 infected individuals is driven by the interdependent changes in CD4⁺ T cell count, changes in plasma HIV-1 RNA, accumulation of resistance mutations and adherence to treatment. The two parts of the model are joined through a per-sexual-act and viral load dependent probability of disease transmission in HIV-discordant couples. Internal validity of the disease progression part of the model is assessed and external validity is demonstrated in comparison to the outcomes observed in the STaR randomized controlled clinical trial. We found that overall adherence to treatment and the resulting pattern of treatment interruptions are key drivers of HIV-1 treatment outcomes. Our model, though largely independent of efficacy data from RCT, was accurate in producing 96-week outcomes, qualitatively and quantitatively comparable to the ones observed in the STaR trial. We demonstrate that multi-paradigm micro-simulation modeling is a promising tool to generate evidence about optimal policy strategies in HIV-1 treatment, including treatment efficacy, HIV-1 transmission, and cost-effectiveness analysis.     

Individual Variations in Serum Melatonin Levels through Time: Implications for Epidemiologic Studies

Melatonin, a marker for the circadian rhythm with serum levels peaking between 2AM and 5AM, is hypothesized to possess anti-cancer properties, making it a mechanistic candidate for the probable carcinogenic effect of circadian rhythm disruption. In order to weigh epidemiologic evidence on the association of melatonin with cancer, we must first understand the laboratory and biological sources of variability in melatonin levels measured in samples. Participants for this methodological study were men enrolled in the Prostate Lung Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO). We measured serum melatonin levels over a five year period in 97 individuals to test if melatonin levels are steady over time. The Pearson correlation coefficient between two measures separated by 1 year was 0.87, while the correlation between two measures separated by 5 years was to 0.70. In an additional cross-sectional study of 292 individuals, we used Analysis of Variance to identify differences in melatonin levels between different lifestyle and environmental characteristics. Serum melatonin levels were slightly higher in samples collected from 130 individuals during the winter, (6.36±0.59 pg/ml) than in samples collected from 119 individuals during the summer (4.83±0.62 pg/ml). Serum melatonin levels were lowest in current smokers (3.02±1.25 pg/ml, p = 0.007) compared to never (6.66±0.66 pg/ml) and former (5.59±0.50 pg/ml) smokers whereas BMI did not significantly affect serum melatonin levels in this study. In conclusion, the high 5 year correlation of melatonin levels implies that single measurements may be used to detect population level associations between melatonin and risk of cancer. Furthermore, our results reiterate the need to record season of sample collection, and individual characteristics in order to maximize study power and prevent confounding.     

Acromegaly: A Review of 100 Cases

Clinical and pathological findings in 100 cases of acromegaly were reviewed. Great individual variation in manifestations of the disease was apparent. The chronic course was evidenced by 30 patients presenting symptoms unrelated to acromegaly. Headache, visual disturbances, arthritis and elevated blood pressure were common. The incidence of diabetes mellitus, thyroid and adrenal dysfunction was similar to that reported in other series. Gonadal disturbances were frequent. Two patients had galactorrhea and two had hyperparathyroidism. Radiologically, pituitary fossae were normal in 24. Pituitary histology in 29 cases revealed four eosinophilic adenomas, but most were mixed eosinophilic-chromophobic. Fifty-two patients received radiation therapy. Rhinorrhea and optic nerve fibrosis were seen in this group. Twenty-four patients were operated upon, with no operative deaths since 1945 and no morbidity since 1952. Visual failure was the clearest indication for surgery. Treatment will be difficult to evaluate until an index of growth hormone secretion is generally available.     

Epidemiologic Study of Shigella sonnei from Sequential Outbreaks and Sporadic Cases Using Different Typing Techniques

We noted that eight outbreaks of Shigella sonnei from an unknown source occurred sequentially in Aichi Prefecture, Japan, between October 1992-June 1993. For comparative purposes we analyzed 53 outbreak-related isolates of Shigella sonnei using different subtyping methods and studied the epidemiology of the outbreaks. It appeared from our study that DNA-based techniques such as plasmid typing and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) were more useful tools for subtyping Shigella sonnei than colicin typing and the antimicrobial susceptibility test. Moreover, according to PFGE analysis, four genetically related isolates of Shigella sonnei were responsible for the eight sequential outbreaks. To further investigate the epidemiology of outbreaks, 58 sporadic isolates of Shigella sonnei from overseas travelers with shigellosis during the same period were also examined. We found that some sporadic isolates from travelers in Asia were genetically related to those of the outbreak-related isolates, indicating that genetically related isolates prevailed in Asia during this period, probably because of the extensive movement of people or food.     

The Promise of Intravaginal Rings for Prevention: User Perceptions of Biomechanical Properties and Implications for Prevention Product Development

Intravaginal rings (IVRs) are currently under investigation as devices for the delivery of agents to protect against the sexual transmission of HIV and STIs, as well as pregnancy. To assist product developers in creating highly acceptable rings, we sought to identify characteristics that intravaginal ring users consider when making decisions about ring use or non-use. We conducted four semi-structured focus groups with 21 women (aged 18–45) who reported using an IVR in the past 12 months. Participants manipulated four prototype rings in their hands, discussed ring materials, dimensionality, and “behavior,” and shared perceptions and appraisals. Five salient ring characteristics were identified: 1) appearance of the rings’ surfaces, 2) tactile sensations of the cylinder material, 3) materials properties, 4) diameter of the cylinder, and 5) ring circumference. Pliability (or flexibility) was generally considered the most important mechanical property. Several ring properties (e.g., porousness, dimensionality) were associated with perceptions of efficacy. Women also revealed user behaviors that may impact the effectiveness of certain drugs, such as removing, rinsing and re-inserting the ring while bathing, and removing the ring during sexual encounters. As product developers explore IVRs as prevention delivery systems, it is critical to balance product materials and dimensions with use parameters to optimize drug delivery and the user experience. It is also critical to consider how user behaviors (e.g., removing the ring) might impact drug delivery.     

Conceptualizing Community Mobilization for HIV Prevention: Implications for HIV Prevention Programming in the African Context

Introduction

Community mobilizing strategies are essential to health promotion and uptake of HIV prevention. However, there has been little conceptual work conducted to establish the core components of community mobilization, which are needed to guide HIV prevention programming and evaluation.

Objectives

We aimed to identify the key domains of community mobilization (CM) essential to change health outcomes or behaviors, and to determine whether these hypothesized CM domains were relevant to a rural South African setting.

Method

We studied social movements and community capacity, empowerment and development literatures, assessing common elements needed to operationalize HIV programs at a community level. After synthesizing these elements into six essential CM domains, we explored the salience of these CM domains qualitatively, through analysis of 10 key informant in-depth-interviews and seven focus groups in three villages in Bushbuckridge.

Results

CM domains include: 1) shared concerns, 2) critical consciousness, 3) organizational structures/networks, 4) leadership (individual and/or institutional), 5) collective activities/actions, and 6) social cohesion. Qualitative data indicated that the proposed domains tapped into theoretically consistent constructs comprising aspects of CM processes. Some domains, extracted from largely Western theory, required little adaptation for the South African context; others translated less effortlessly. For example, critical consciousness to collectively question and resolve community challenges functioned as expected. However, organizations/networks, while essential, operated differently than originally hypothesized - not through formal organizations, but through diffuse family networks.

Conclusions

To date, few community mobilizing efforts in HIV prevention have clearly defined the meaning and domains of CM prior to intervention design. We distilled six CM domains from the literature; all were pertinent to mobilization in rural South Africa. While some adaptation of specific domains is required, they provide an extremely valuable organizational tool to guide CM programming and evaluation of critically needed mobilizing initiatives in Southern Africa.     

Non-Invasive Colonoscopic Polypectomy: Review of 100 Cases

Colonoscopic polypectomy was done in one hundred patients. One hundred eighty-three polyps were removed from these patients during 111 colonoscopies and eight malignant polyps were found. The material suggests that pedunculated malignant polyps, when the stalk is clear of carcinoma, can be cured through colonoscopic polypectomy, thus obviating the need for laparotomy. At present, however, more cases and a longer follow-up are needed before this can be established. There were no deaths and no perforations. There were two cases of bleeding, only one requiring transfusion.The procedure costs less and entails less time in hospital than laparotomy, colotomy and polypectomy.     

Time Trends in Epidemiologic Characteristics and Imaging Features of Lung Adenocarcinoma: A Population Study of 21,113 Cases in China

Objectives

This study aims to describe time trends of epidemiologic characteristics and imaging features over 14 years among histologically confirmed lung adenocarcinoma (ADC) in China and to discuss the possible reasons for these changes.

Materials and Methods

Data of 21,113 pathologically confirmed lung cancer patients from January 1999 to December 2012 were analyzed retrospectively. Preoperative high-resolution computer tomography (HRCT) images were available and reviewed in 5,439 lung ADC patients since 2005. Time trends of the ADC proportion of lung cancer cases, gender distribution, age at diagnosis, the proportion of early-stage ADC and imaging features were investigated.

Results

The proportion of ADC increased during the 14 years (P = 0.000). The ratio of female to male ADC cases was higher than both squamous cell carcinoma (SQCC) and total lung cancer cases (P = 0.000). The median age at diagnosis of ADC patients was younger than that of both SQCC and total lung cancer during the 14 years (P = 0.000). The proportion of age group 45–59 years increased in total lung cancer cases (P = 0.000). When stratified by lung cancer histopathologic subtypes, this trend was also observed in ADC (P = 0.001) and SQCC (P = 0.007). The proportion of early-stage cases of ADC increased from 2008 to 2012 (P < 0.001). The proportion of subsolid nodules (SSN) in ADC increased (P = 0.001) from 2005 to 2012.

Conclusion

The data suggests that the proportion of ADC increased from 1999 to 2012 especially in middle-aged, female patients; early-stage ADC and SSN on HRCT images gradually increased, which may have been caused by a change in smoking habits and increased application of HRCT.     

Atrophy Rates in Asymptomatic Amyloidosis: Implications for Alzheimer Prevention Trials

There is considerable interest in designing therapeutic studies of individuals at risk of Alzheimer disease (AD) to prevent the onset of symptoms. Cortical β-amyloid plaques, the first stage of AD pathology, can be detected in vivo using positron emission tomography (PET), and several studies have shown that ∼1/3 of healthy elderly have significant β-amyloid deposition. Here we assessed whether asymptomatic amyloid-PET-positive controls have increased rates of brain atrophy, which could be harnessed as an outcome measure for AD prevention trials. We assessed 66 control subjects (age = 73.5±7.3 yrs; MMSE = 29±1.3) from the Australian Imaging Biomarkers & Lifestyle study who had a baseline Pittsburgh Compound B (PiB) PET scan and two 3T MRI scans ∼18-months apart. We calculated PET standard uptake value ratios (SUVR), and classified individuals as amyloid-positive/negative. Baseline and 18-month MRI scans were registered, and brain, hippocampal, and ventricular volumes and annualized volume changes calculated. Increasing baseline PiB-PET measures of β-amyloid load correlated with hippocampal atrophy rate independent of age (p = 0.014). Twenty-two (1/3) were PiB-positive (SUVR>1.40), the remaining 44 PiB-negative (SUVR≤1.31). Compared to PiB-negatives, PiB-positive individuals were older (76.8±7.5 vs. 71.7±7.5, p<0.05) and more were APOE4 positive (63.6% vs. 19.2%, p<0.01) but there were no differences in baseline brain, ventricle or hippocampal volumes, either with or without correction for total intracranial volume, once age and gender were accounted for. The PiB-positive group had greater total hippocampal loss (0.06±0.08 vs. 0.02±0.05 ml/yr, p = 0.02), independent of age and gender, with non-significantly higher rates of whole brain (7.1±9.4 vs. 4.7±5.5 ml/yr) and ventricular (2.0±3.0 vs. 1.1±1.0 ml/yr) change. Based on the observed effect size, recruiting 384 (95%CI 195–1080) amyloid-positive subjects/arm will provide 80% power to detect 25% absolute slowing of hippocampal atrophy rate in an 18-month treatment trial. We conclude that hippocampal atrophy may be a feasible outcome measure for secondary prevention studies in asymptomatic amyloidosis.